lessthanjake wrote: I think that’s right, but I’m not sure that that’s really DHO-specific. An amazing defense like the Wolves’ defense is going to lower the expected value of essentially anything a team does. I don’t think this is a reason to discount DHO-assists specifically. It’s more just a reason to recognize that a defense like the Wolves lowers how much expected value playmaking can add, because they’re just really good at limiting/closing the advantage that’s created from any action. And I think this is why it gets so important in the business end of the playoffs for a team’s superstar guy to have at least one genuine star teammate that can take the limited window that can be created against a great playoff defense and still consistently exploit it. Murray definitely wasn’t it these playoffs (and while he was that good in last year’s playoffs, I don’t think he’s a player we should expect to reliably perform like that). If he’d been playing how he was last playoffs, then I think there’s a pretty good chance that the Nuggets would’ve been able to really break the Timberwolves’ defense (and that’s especially the case if MPJ wasn’t cold), because suddenly all that quick doubling on Jokic would’ve been pretty consistently exploited. Of course, having Murray playing like he was last playoffs essentially means having a major star teammate, but I think there’s no shame in needing that kind of teammate to break a defense as good as the Timberwolves. (As an aside, of course, the Nuggets were very close to winning the series, even with Murray playing very badly, so they didn’t need Murray playing like he did last playoffs to win the series, but rather IMO to actually really break the Timberwolves defense).
I don't mean to slam the DHO play specifically, though I do think it lends itself to being a less resilient playtype much like off-ball screens for shooters in the playoffs. But in the postseason only a few guys on each team deserve to handle the rock when every possession matters.
The Simon dude did a breakdown of MPJ shots before his post was lost and showed he wasn't getting setup with particularly great looks, which is normal for a spot up shooter late in a series. Part of that is certainly due to Murray being blamed for playing below-par but the other side to it is that when Jokic's post creation gets schemed away I don't think he has a great fallback option for creating if the next progression in his algorithm is to flow into DHOs and either float outside or try to crash the glass over an elite big.
I'd like to see him take a page out of Embiid's book next year when that occurs and face up at the nail where it's a lot harder to double him consistently.
I don’t wildly disagree with any of this. I do think Jokic can work to incorporate more of a face-up game, to potentially have another arrow in his quiver that great defenses might happen to find tougher to deal with than his other stuff. Not sure that incorporating more face-ups would’ve really done much more in this particular series, though, since I think we’d still be left with the fundamental problem of the Wolves doing a really fast double while the ball is in the air, and rotating really quickly—if they’re doing that, then passing out of an instant double at the nail isn’t really better than doing it out of the post. At a certain point, if defenses are going to play someone that way, then his teammates really just have to be able to exploit it, and if they can’t then it’s a teammate issue (which perhaps wouldn’t be a teammate issue against lesser opponents that are easier to attack, but you get opponents like this in the playoffs).
I would note, though, that Jokic did actually face up a decent bit in Game 5 if I recall, and the Wolves weren’t doing a really fast double at that point, and the face-up game worked well. So I think that was something that was in Jokic’s quiver that the Nuggets did turn to and use effectively. And, as I’ve noted in prior posts, Jokic is super efficient on drives, so it’s not a surprise it worked well. I don’t know if the Nuggets went to it less after that because they didn’t think it would be particularly helpful when the Wolves’ double was coming so fast (see above paragraph for an explanation as to why they might have thought that), or whether Jokic did it less because he was exhausted (in Game 7 particularly). Either way, I’m not really sure that that’s some obvious solution for this particular series. The issue here wasn’t really Jokic not creating an advantage, but rather that the Wolves’ defense was fantastic at limiting/closing that advantage as well as possible, and the rest of the Nuggets scorers were too cold and/or not good enough to exploit the window that the Wolves defense was giving. But, as I said, more generally, I think Jokic can work to incorporate more face-up stuff, because it’s always good to have as many go-to options as possible, in case a defense has a particular weakness to one specific thing.
To be fair G5 was an outlier this series with respect to how they defended Jokic that game by letting him go at Gobert 1v1. The reason why I'm harping on the faceup stuff is because we saw Embiid doing just that as his adjustment vs the Ham defense in the Knicks series. It's still harder to double someone at the nail as ostensibly you create a 2v1 on the side the double comes from that requires a longer rotation vs a 4 on 3 when Jokic is posting up on the right block. But cool to see we agree on that and I think Jokic comes back this summer with a trick up his sleeve for when he faces this type of scheme again.
I would disagree when you say it's not about Jokic creating advantages vs the Wolves closing advantages. To me it's a combo of both that requires Jokic to be able to create a bigger advantage in order to outpace an elite team like them if this is all his teammates can muster as connectors and play finishers. It just really puts a nail in the coffin for what I was thinking this year about teams only needing one relative weakness they can exploit to tilt the numbers game in their favor against you. Maybe specialists were better for ceiling raising back in the day before zones, but there's just too much leeway in terms of defensive alignments and athleticism amongst wing players now compared to then.
LeBron's NBA Cup MVP is more valuable than either of KD's Finals MVPs. This is the word of the Lord
Separately, while I am a bit mixed on all-NBA going totally positionless, I do love it for all-defensive teams. Four centres and Herb Jones, officially the greatest all-defensive team in league history.
OhayoKD wrote:For Posterity, here was the assist breakdown from a post I think the website glitched out for some reason. Fortunately,
Simonpegg31 wrote:Going through Jokic’s assists really make his playmaking far less impressive
Game 7:
Fantastic weakside pass to KCP off a double (Missed rotation by the wolves)
DHO
Pass out to murray, who hit a stepback 3 against a high double + Bump
Pass out to murray against high help, ANT makes a late rotation DHO for a contested midrange pullup for KCP
DHO for a off balance floater by murray
Good pass to murray in the corner off ANT ball watching where he attacked the closeout well (A minute left of game 7)
Game 6:
Aaron Gordon DHO
A pass to Braun off a pop when both the BH and screener defender committed to Jamal
Game 5:
Zoom action DHO
Throwing it to KCP early transition at the start of the shot clock who pulls up early
P&R pass to reggie
Throws it to reggie in transition, who beats NAW in front of him
Good transition pass to braun
Good pass to Aaron Gordan cutting after getting inside position on Jaden Mcdaniels in early mismatched transition
Good pass to Braun in transition (3 on 2)
Jamal Murray DHO
Kickout to MPJ with ANT ball watching a tad (Trademark contested 3 here)
Good transition pass to cutting AG after a mismatch causes KAT to help
Good pass to KCP before the double comes
Kevin Love esque transition pass
Throws it to an Open Braun in transition with the wolves not matching up
Game 4: (Soft doubles)
Box and elbows, good pass to MPJ with Mcdaniels ball watching Great pass in the post to a cutting AG
Great skip pass to KCP in the post (Soft double)
Transition pass to an open MPJ who beat everyone up the floor
DHO for murray heavily contested pullup midrange over towns
DHO for murray hitting a contested three over the arms of Jaden Mcdaniels
Great pass to AG off the double
Game 3:
Good pass to AG at the dunker on a Murray Jokic DHO
Pass to KCP for the contested midrange C&S over Jaden mcdaniels
Good pass to braun at the dunker on a Murray Jokic DHO
Good pass to MPJ on a Horns Chin set (so like, a designed easy one)
Kickout Pass to Murray who takes a contested pullup low shot clock middy over Naz
KCP causes his defender to fall, passes to an open jokic who passes it to the open man after the scramble (Jamal for three)
Passes it to Aaron Gordan at the wing who Gobert was sagging off of on an off ball screen with Murray
DHO for an Aaron Gordan three
Good lob for the AG cut
Game 2:
Pass to a cutting AG, KAT kind of gets a hand on it so AG just has to post up KAT and makes a good hook
Pass to AG open from the wing from three (since theyre sagging)
Pass to a cutting AG who hits the midrange shot over KAT
Good pass to Justin Holiday in the WS corner who hits a crazy contested 3 over ANT
Murray DHO who gets by everyone despite stepping back first
Good Lob to AG, Anderson caught sleeping
Good WS pass to justin Holiday
Transiiton pass to MPJ
Game 1:
Contested DHO pullup 3 for MPJ
Contesed DHO stepback pullup 3 for Reggie Jackson
Pass to a cutting braun in transition
Great weakside pass to KCP in the post (caught sleeping)
Pass to cutting Aaron Gordan on the short roll JokicXMurray
Great Lob to AG inverted P&R
Good pass to an open justin holiday
DHO to Jamal Murray
Contested DHO to MPJ pullup 3
14/55 assists were DHOs
8 were pretty basic transition passes, and thats being somewhat generous
4 or so were other players collapsing the D and him making the right second pass off the scramble rotations
Bidofo wrote:What exactly are the "Rondo assists" that Jokic is supposedly racking up? Are people talking about his DHOs? Because while statkeepers may be a bit liberal in what counts as an assist, to compare those to Rondo getting assists from Allen coming off screens is absurd. Jokic getting his ball handlers open off his own screens has great value.
Great value is an empty term without some sort of comparative frame. DHO's require your teammates to do more, and take out less defenders than the average lead playmaker assist, and that is not considering what those playmakers can be doing to the defenses before they make the final pass.
If you compare Jokic's playmaking to someone like say, Luka, he is taking out less defenders and is requiring his teammates to successfully do more things for his passes to turn into scores.
Consequently, relative to someone like Luka, his assist average significantly overstates what he's actually creating.
therealbig3 wrote:I'm curious then, for the people that seem to hold the opinion of Jokic having a great peak, but clearly a level or two below the greatest peaks, where would you rank him as far as all time peaks? I'm curious how long the list is and which players you'd rank ahead.
Heej, OhayoKD, mainly directed at you guys, but anyone is welcome to answer, but I know both of you have generally been a little more critical (in a fair way) than most other posters re: Jokic.
To make things simple I'll keep this era-relative(.
Tier 0
1. Bill Russell
Tier 1
2. Lebron 3. Kareem
(Mikan goes somewhere here)
Tier 2
4. Duncan 5. Hakeem 6. Jordan 7/8. Wilt/Magic 9/10. KG/Shaq
Tier 4 14/15/16. Kobe/Bird/Wade 17/18. James Harden/Steve Nash 20/21/22. David Robinson/Kevin Durant/Cp3
Can you elaborate on the Jordan placement? I have a hard time placing his 3-4 year peak outside the top 4
At the core of it is that his team's performance without him over full games and several full or near-full seasons(84, 94, 95) compared against his team's performance with him did not even approach what we see from my 1 and 2, and did not really match my no.3 and is comparable to my 4-8(strictly regular season, there are other players that can be compared statistically(shaq, curry, giannis, kg), but they and their teams don't hold up as well in the playoffs in their best years)
There's are various plausible explanations for why directly related to his own individual production(or lack thereof) like:
Colbinii wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Considering 4 of the 5 players ahead of him are elite rim protectors [ATG at that] and the other is LeBron James, something about defensive impact must be high on the list, especially with Russell in Tier 0 and KG/Wilt/Giannis all in the Top 13.
Rim Load
Spoiler:
it was very hard to make out players(besides pippen whose got a nasty case of roblox head), so i could be misattributing here and there though I used jersey numbers, names, commentator[url][/url]s, and head/body shapes the best i could. I also counted "splits" for both parties(which is why the numbers don't add up to 40)
Distribution went
Pippen/Grant 14 each
Purdue 6 or 7
Cartwright 4
Armstrong/Jordan 1 each
FWIW, Grant seemed more significantly more effective than Pippen but otoh, Pippen was trusted to deal with laimbeer far more than anyone else
All that aside, what's notable here is that it's the non-bigs who are checking rim threats the most. Not the centres. With one of the two deterring attempts, sometimes on an island, the rest of the team was enabled to try and force turnovers with suffocating pressure.
Fwiw, in this game, Pippen and Grant, the two defenders protecting the paint more than anyone, ended with 0 blocks. As did the centers who protected the paint more than anyone else. Jordan and Livingston ended with 2. And now BPM, unless I am misuderstanding the writeup, is giving bonus points to those 2 blocks on the assumption they're especially valuable. Here's what it's saying is an extra valuable play: https://youtu.be/iZlw-GzD9AA?t=200
As we can see here, Jordan is not the rim defender. He stops the shot largely thanks to a bigger attacker occupying Aguire and thus distracting him from Jordan.
Even if this sort of curve makes the metric more accurate with a league-worth of players(And I'd be interested if you could elaborate on the regressions you ran), for the purposes of this project where a ton of defenders who would be the runaway leaders on their teams in terms of "rim-load" still on the board, and countless more who would significantly outpace any guard, I'm skeptical of this metric's balance.
For a larger sample we can look at player-tracking(which is still limited in terms of only being able to track when a player is the closest to a shot) now available for the likes of embid who has finished in the top 5 once for blocks but is in a tier of his own with gobert in terms of deterring shots: Image Remember, this is not tracking when, like in the clip above, embid's presence allows a smaller defender like Thybuille to slap a shot attempt. It is not tracking when players avoid driving at the rim because Embid might swallow their shot. It is literally just tracking who is the closest to a shot-attempt and the gap potrayed here is of an order of magnitude higher than when you just look at what the box-score has access to.
Being below average at the most valuable aspect of defense.
BPM grades Jordan as if he was an elite rim-protector regardless of position(actually giving him a boost because he is a guard) when in reality, because of his size, most of his blocks are plays where a bigger defender is more valuable.
There are various other basketball things we can get into(quality of creation and decision-making is his other major limiter), but game and even season-level samples put him as a candidate for era-best rather than an outlier:
Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991 Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with
Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998 Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with
Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999 Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with
Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...
Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift Magic takes 44-win teams to 59
The player I put right below Jordan(Magic) actually has better looking rs signals, is better tested situationally, and doesn't really have an equivalent of Jordan -> telling doug and phil jackson scoring titles needed to be factored in to how they deployed him -> traded his most talented teammate(rip hamilton) because he felt "threatened" by him taking shots -> proceeding to beef with the player said teammate was traded for because "too much offense was going through him" all of which calls into question Jordan's ability to fit with the most common type of co-star(high volume scorers).
Jordan's success predominantly came under Phil Jackson who -> had the Bulls around .500 without Jordan or Pippen -> Won 5 titles with a different core with zone defenses limiting the ffect -> Saw a +4 rolling SRS jump in the middle of a season upon implementation of a scheme where Jordan's teamamtes were asked to do more and Jordan was asked to do less -> Is a standard-deviation above other coaches historically if one uses Coaching RAPM
Despite this, I ultimately put Jordan above Magic as I value not being exploitable defensively in a playoff-setting and seeing MJ as a bigger playoff riser.
However, Hakeem is the biggest playoff riser of that period giving him a pretty reasonable statistical case paired with similar raw regular-season signals and his teams seemingly depending less on Hakeem's co-stars(no real drop-off with Sampson or Thorpe when they missed big chunks of time). Now consider that Hakeem was not really optimized individually until he turned 30, generates alot more value from a side of the court where star-level impact is much rarer, and if you're just looking at likely individual value across different situations for goodness like I do, Hakeem's not hard to put above.
Duncan is basically Hakeem with better proof of concept and great small-sample signals, and also was able to put up arguably jordan+ impact on teams where his co-star played his natural position and generates alot of his value from the same skill(paint-protection). Duncan also posts better raw splits than any of the three players listed above and has a case as the second best impact player of databall.
parsnips33 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:In a dribble-hand-off assist, the player DHO'ing usually is only taking one defender out of the play(whoever they're screening). While the box-score is only going to give Jokic the assist and not reward the actions that set-up the dho. Remember, DHO's are basically just a downhill screen, and because of how little goes into it, it's something most any competent big can do. Jokic's individual contribution here is both replacable and inofitself contribues less(1 defender).
Additionally, Jokic is not a really good roller, which means if your ball-handler is someone who defenses can go under, the DHO is basically dead. So again, Jokic is dependent on his teammates skills for the basic and replaceable thing he's contributing here to lead to points.
While we're on this, I may as well highlight for the sake of "maximizing skillsets" discourse, Jokic not being a lob-threat takes a lot out of dho action, particularly with Murray being a very good lob-passer.
Isn't that pretty much the goal is take one defender out of the play? Are there other actions that are regularly drawing more than one defender out of the action?
The goal is to take as many defenders out as possible and chaining together actions generally will be more effective at that. Great playmakers usually aren't taking out just one defender when they record an assist:
Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:Now, as someone who has argued ad-nauesum there is no "the" box-score and box-scores are glorified eye-tests, I would be remiss not to look at context for those impressive ast:tov ratios...
Someone with great athleticism and great moves who hogs the ball
He had the ball in his hands so much that he got off 30 shots a game, that's a lot of usage so there should be some assists there.
verson was also probably the NBA's all time leader (outside of maybe Wilt/Shaq) in shooting into double or even triple coverage. He got severe tunnel vision at times and would take truly awful shots hoping the refs would bail him out.
Hmm.
So Iverson has a strong ast:tov ratio on high volume which gets even better in the playoffs and also
-> Is breaking down defenses pre-pass a bunch(ball-hog, has the hands in his ball so much) -> Is taking a truckload of shots(also contributes to turnovers) -> And is drawing doubles and triples
Iow, just going by your contextual additions, not only is he getting alot of assists on very few turnovers, but we can reasonably infer his assists are generally taking out more defenders on average, he's breaking down defenses without passing, he's drawing more defensive attention(which frees up teammates to do their thing), and he's doing all that while hardly turning the ball over?
If anything I'd think all that suggests his box-score underrates how much he's creating for his team. And fwiw, box derivatives which also don't really care about the bullet points, like "play-val" and passer-rating/box-creation already have Iverson as a historically excellent playmaker.
Assist 1: creates an open jumper by drawing a double and then makes a 3rd defender linger with a on-time and on point cross-court jump-pass. 2 defenders taken out completely, and a third hindered. I'd grade that as a good or borderline great creation.
Assist 2: Transition, draws and manipulates one defender to make a layup lane for his teammate. Really more captializing on a good oppurtinity then generating one, so i'll just say this is decent
Assist 3: Completely takes 2 defenders out of the play by dribbling around them(notable how frantically they double), sets up a semi-contested look, I'd say it's good creation. Maybe he could have made a wide-open look by passing it when he gets the ball instead of dribbling.
Assist 4: Takes out one defender by dribbling, another with his pass, and also freezes Shaq with his eyes allowing for his teammate to take a step for a higher quality look(though he was set-up for a open jumper). Great creation imo. Just excellent playmaking, with Iverson's combination of manipulation, ball-handling, and passing all combining to almost singlehandedly nuetralize the defense.
Assist 5: Iverson knifes through LA and takes out 3 defenders to set up hill with a semi-open jumper. I'd grade that as a great creation too though based on the shot I can see the argument for good(maybe he could have passed it a beat earlier?)
Assist 6: Iverson recovers from nearly losing the ball and takes out 1 defender with a pass while also getting Kobe out of position. Scorer still has to do alot of work after so I'm just calling it decent.
Overall, Per-assist Iverson is taking out nearly 2 defenders completely and his passes are generally accurate and well-timed with a combination of scoring gravity, handles, and manipulation turning good passing into great creation.
Small sample, but it lines up with your own criticisms which...don't really support what you've been arguing imo. You also have the box-stuff where he has a high ast% with low tov% despite how many shots he takes, him drawing doubles and triples, and him "always having the ball". I don't see how that all adds up to a mediocre playmaker tbh.
(possession 10 is at 8:04 for anyone who wants to vet)
Possession 1: Hedo guards up and Dwight stretches out his arms to cover the backdoor, Lebron hits the pass anyway(size is a big advantage) taking out 2 defenders with a pass that's impossible for basically any not magic-sized guard. layup
Possession 2: Mo Williams passes it to Lebron in the corner who again, is outright doubled and hits a bounce pass for another open layup. Another high quality read which isn't happening if Lebron isn't as big and strong as he is(so basically guards are locked out of making this one too).
Possesion 3: Doubled as he drives kicks out for shooter whose kind of open and upfakes to get wide open. All 3 of these plays feature help from DPOY Dwight though I guess it's possible for a guard to get this one off. Lebron then fights dwight on an island to win another possession(rebounds are not created equal folks)
Possession 4: First Play Lebron is not the primary creator, Lebron drives and someone tries to hedge to cut both the driving lane and the corner dude so the cavs do a screeen and handoff to circumvent and mo williams cooks with a sliver of space leading to a verajoa score.
Possession 5 Lebron gets the ball at the mid-post and is doubled by two dudes(including dpoy dwight) and a third dude govers to close off a potential receipent. Screen comes allowing Lebron to reset and hedo covers while dwight, like in the first possession stretches out his arms to prevent any potential backdoors. In the confusion West is unaccounted and Lebron hits him for a wide-open three.
Possession 6 Lebron cuts to get the ball and one dude guards up while the other dude covers the passing lane. Again, Lebron bypasses both with a pass that would be alot harder to make if you were guard-sized. Interesting none of these are lobs(maybe due to a lack of explositiveness+the threat of dpoy dwight), but dwight gobbles up verajoa only for big z to convert the rebound. Lebron clearly the primary creator here, but one of his less valuable plays I guess.
Possession 7 Transition, three defenders key in on Lebron passes for what would be a wide-open jumper. Not taken for some reason so play resets. Lebron pretends he's going to go for another interior pass causing a 2nd defender to cheat towards him and then a screen comes leaving the dude who passed up the first pass wide-open but this time with time to spare
Possession 8 Lebron gets ball half-court in transtion, two defenders get in each other's way defending him. Magic don't get sorted in time so Lebron makes an easy read for another open three, but this time it clanks.
Possession 9 3 defenders(including dpoy dwight) collapse on Lebron to contain his drive and are successful. First negative play/decision from Lebron
Possession 10 First time Magic leave a single defender on Lebron, goes for jumper and clanks
So, in 5 minutes of basketball, with a single exception, whenever Lebron has the ball(and as we know he has it alot) the Magic dedicate two defenders towards him including, typically, DPOY Dwight Howard. When he is looking to pass, they'll throw an extra dude to make passing harder. When he might go to score they double him. The only instances when he has the ball and isn't having two defenders specifically decidated to him is when the cavs run a screen or handoff to prevent it.
This is not the triangle. There isn't another elite scoring threat, ball-handler, creator, or even explosive athelete for the defense to worry about so they wisely kept putting an extra player to prevent James from doing whatever they figured he was trying to do and Lebron responded by...
dropping 49 points on 71% true-shooting and turning the ball over twice.
Also, you might notice that Lebron created 6 looks here(going to be harsh and not count possession 8) with two of them being about featuring passes as valuable and irreplaceable as it comes(lack of a strong rim-runner makes both especially tough not to mention the dwight howard aspect of things). For his efforts he came away with 3 assists, one of which comes after lebron had to manipulate extra defenders a second time after his first play which took out 3 defenders wasn't capitalised on. Put another way, for those 3 assists, Lebron took out a combined 9 defenders, and that isn't counting whoever was chasing verajoa
You generally want your superstars to be taking out multiple defenders per possession a bunch, not just one, and the more defenders they can take out on with what they are doing, the less you need from teammates(floor-raising), and the more flexibility you have to fill other needs(ceiling-raising).
This isn't to say Jokic is not a better playmaker than Iverson(dho's are still just a fraction of his assists and plenty of them come from passes Iverson likely can't make), but these differences matter with more ambitious comparisons(Magic, Lebron, ect)
Lack of a lob threat is a good point. Not sure I agree that Jokic is not a good roller - his touch on floaters and hooks and obviously his ability to pass out of the roll makes him pretty deadly there
Fair.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
Colbinii wrote:I'm thinking Boston in 6 and Minnesota in 6 for the two series
I have Boston winning in 5 but with a really lopsided MOV. A sweep would not surprise me. I'd be floored if Indy won the series. Minn will be a lot closer but 6 is probably right.
Texas Chuck wrote:we watch super slow motion replay from 4 different angles and get angry if a ref missed something at full speed in real time . . . Newsflash to fans--it doesn't slow down matrix style for the refs as the game is going on
Colbinii wrote:I'm thinking Boston in 6 and Minnesota in 6 for the two series
I have Boston winning in 5 but with a really lopsided MOV. A sweep would not surprise me. I'd be floored if Indy won the series. Minn will be a lot closer but 6 is probably right.
I have Boston as 6-1 favorites with them winning in 5 being the modal outcome. I have Minnesota as 2-1 favorites with them winning in 5 being the modal outcome
AEnigma wrote:Horns sets are not about “the chaos from cutting and popping”. That type of “chaos” comes from traditional roll and replace or stack/spain action with the up-screen down-screen or replace variants, because the point is to muddle the low man. Horns sets are good because you make it so the low defenders are the corner defenders and they create beneficial spacing and alignment; their value is not because horns sets, or at least the basic ones, inherently "causes chaos". The horns set you seem to be thinking about is horns chin, which only had one very basic read within its progression.
Well good thing that's the exact set mentioned.
Okay, I bolded what you said for your own edification. Horns chin is a much more specific play and not what we were discussing — although even if it were, your characterisation would still be weirdly exaggerated.
What is with this boards obsessions with tedium? What is your point? And why are you telling me what I meant when I something when I specifically just told you what I meant? I skimmed through exactly what a horns chin set is just because even that posts description didn't sound right. And then I posted.
That's for your own edification, so you'd know for sure what I meant in this "discussion" you believe you are having.
ShotCreator wrote:Well good thing that's the exact set mentioned.
Okay, I bolded what you said for your own edification. Horns chin is a much more specific play and not what we were discussing — although even if it were, your characterisation would still be weirdly exaggerated.
What is with this boards obsessions with tedium? What is your point? And why are you telling me what I meant when I something when I specifically just told you what I meant? I skimmed through exactly what a horns chin set is just because even that posts description didn't sound right. And then I posted.
That's for your own edification, so you'd know for sure what I meant in this "discussion" you believe you are having.
You got a play wrong. It's not that deep
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
Heej wrote:To be fair, Brunson left right after his breakout postseason. Luka adjusted perfectly fine playing next to Kyrie. And Porzingis was not playing well in Dallas regardless of Luka. He had a lot of trouble posting up switches that season which he seems to have resolved a bit this season.
Jokic being a high-assisted guy is a double edged sword because in the playoffs vs contender level defenses the threshold for playmaking competency is raised significantly so the same connectors who can widen advantages for Jokic to finish are suddenly reduced to record scratches. When that happens, a superstar is expected to increase their playmaking load to get back to generating 2 on the ball situations.
I'm not fully convinced Jokic clears that threshold once teams throw the Ham defense at him in the post and require him to create from outside or sling laser beam skip passes like Bron, Harden, and Luka do.
Brunson went from 18/5 to 24/6 the first season after leaving Dallas. There was no break out in Dallas. Kristaps OBPM doubled in Washington the exact same season after getting traded out of Dallas.
I'm very skeptical any defensive pressure on a free flowing offense can compare to completely changing the tier of player a guy is like being ball dominant can.
Kyrie is super skilled and complete offensively. He's not a regular player. It says more about him than about Luka or Dallas that he can go there and be mostly himself. He did this next to Durant/Harden, and LeBron/Love. If your skill is so high level that there aren't any shots you're uncomfortable taking then you will be immune to getting taken out of rhythm from watching a guy attack with almost no movement in the offense 10 possessions at a time.
But then again it depends who we are comparing him to. I definitely don't think Luka makes his teammates better in nearly any way. That's for certain, despite being more disruptive and having all that rim pressure with the ball.
I implore you to look up what he did in those playoffs brother. There's a reason why I thought he had the chance to make a Harden-esque leap when he went to the Knicks. Didn't think he'd be this freakin good but that was absolutely a breakout postseason run for him.
As for the offensive leap for Porzingis are you sure that didn't have just as much to do with him being featured more on a team people didn't take seriously so he had less pressure? From what I recall during his Mavs stint Carlisle went out of his way to get KP his touches but that dude was simply in his own head and couldn't produce out of advantageous sets for him.
I don't agree with just handwaving away the Kyrie point. Harden is the closest player comp to Luka as far as offensive typing goes and he adapted perfectly fine next to Chris Paul their first year together where they led an elite offensive team.
I understand the problem with Luka's ball dominance and have been critical of it at times but he scales extremely well in the postseason imo. Hard to see all the space he generates for guys to shoot over or attack closeouts and say he's not helping put guys in good spots to make plays. I do think he'd benefit from adding more off-ball movement to his game. Especially as a cutter with his size, touch, and vision.
Harden and Chris Paul was clunky on-court because Harden didn't give anything. Chris Paul's output next to Harden was Pat Beverley level, and then he'd scale it up to MVP level off-court. The on-off splits are extreme there. There was a lot of staggering to make that work.
In all honesty, I only remembered Brunson disappointing after people thought he broke out in those playoffs.
And looking back, he only had one breakout series, against higher level defenses in PHX and GSW he was mediocre. And in that break out series? Luka missed half the games.
AEnigma wrote:Okay, I bolded what you said for your own edification. Horns chin is a much more specific play and not what we were discussing — although even if it were, your characterisation would still be weirdly exaggerated.
What is with this boards obsessions with tedium? What is your point? And why are you telling me what I meant when I something when I specifically just told you what I meant? I skimmed through exactly what a horns chin set is just because even that posts description didn't sound right. And then I posted.
That's for your own edification, so you'd know for sure what I meant in this "discussion" you believe you are having.
You got a play wrong. It's not that deep
...So when I say "in any given horns set", after the only horn set mentioned was horns chin, you would somehow come to the conclusion I'm not talking about a Horns Chin set? I really feel like I'm being trolled. Regardless of anybody's intention. This is a bickering **** little nothing conversation. I'm done.
I'm not doing any series-by-series analysis this postseason, mainly because my predictions are more like spoilers, and I want you guys to enjoy these games.
I'm rooting for Indiana in the East, as they are a respectable team with a bevy of good young players. If they win the NBA title, it'd be the most hilarious outcome possible. Carlisle becomes a GOAT-level coach. Siakam becomes a legend winning titles with two franchises. Haliburton becomes the barometer for PG play in the league. Turner becomes the prototype modern big man. The overreactions would be glorious.
I like both teams out west, so no real rooting interest. Dallas has needed to commit to making Luka either their playmaker who can score, or an off-ball scorer with great passing (if ever a player is tasked with doing both, it means that there's a 99% chance that the roster construction sucks, at least on offense). They've chosen the playmaking. I think either way would have been fine because Luka is that good. Kyrie is playing the best defense he's ever played. Great to see him getting respect after he was so maligned in the media.
Minnesota is easy to like with the youth, the solid citizens, and the guy who should take over this summer as the best American-Made player on Earth. It's hard to stomach watching the overrated Rudy Gobert, but they have enough easy-to-root-for guys that supersede all that. They're battle-tested now after facing down the defending champions.
Dallas and Minnesota play the right way, mixing old-school principles with new-school strategies. Very similar to likable teams like Miami and Denver last year. I think this will be an excellent series. Like really good.
I just want to shout out OKC. I know they were the 1 seed and favored, but I think in three years we will look back and realize that the core Dallas had in 2024 was title-contender level. OKC will continue to develop. I'll be honest...this was the first extended time watching SGA, and his poise and how he read where doubles were coming from was extremely impressive. He put the fear of God into Dallas down the stretch of those games. Dallas is a very good defensive team, and they couldn't stop him. He's cool, marketable, handsome...old-school flavor with the mid-range game, but with modernity sprinkled in so the kids will like and emulate him. He's got it all. Definitely earned his placement in MVP voting.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle Open your heart and hands, my son Or you'll never make it over the river
Minnesota or Dallas, please come out of this season with the LOB
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
The Boston "All-Time Mega ZZZQUAD!" Celtics' answer to the worst defensive team in the league was to have their 57 y/o "center" shoot 12 3-pointers.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle Open your heart and hands, my son Or you'll never make it over the river
TheGOATRises007 wrote:I would be stunned if the Celtics win the title
You would be stunned if a +10 SRS team won the title?
Its comical at this point.......we win a close game we're frauds. We blow out a team we have the easiest path ever.
I mean i get we arent one of the "real" 10 Srs teams and its inflated our value. We're more 16 Spurs when they were 10 Srs than we are one of the dominant title times.............but like wouldnt the 16 Spurs win the title this season?
Look at the field..........virgin Pacers team in their first run w/ this core. Siakam the only one with real playoff experience. A Luka/Kyrie team thats played like 30 games together built at deadline that was a possession away from going 7 w/ a Kawhiless Clips team and another mostly virgin playoff team
Then theres the Wolves which if you have beating us fine but despite the dominant playoff defense their offense is literally mid and if their 22yo star isnt playing like 06 Wade its one of the worst playoff offenses in recent memory
I cant imagine what these ppl must have been saying about our 08 team in real time when we went 7 w/ a **** Hawks team and a mid Cavs team led by 22yo Bron theres no way they thought we were beating La and maybe even Detroit
