2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Special_Puppy]

This series is 3:0, because Luka with Kyrie help has made all important shots and plays in the clutch. I kinda doubt you can see that in EPM.

Actually you can! Basically says that Jokic and Luka were both fantastic against the Wolves and that Kyrie has been substantially better than Murray

You can't. What would result of the series been, if Luka didn't score winning 3 in game 2 and didn't make few clutch baskets in game 1, and would instead scored those 7 points in game 3?

You can see that Denver's net rating against Minnesota in non-garbage time minutes was -3.4 and against Minnesota it was +4.6. You can use EPM to try to get rough idea of what's causing the difference https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/summary?season=2023&seasontype=playoffs&start=10/1/2023&end=10/15/2024&opponent=18

[penbeast0]

MIN needs to bench Gobert to have a chance to flip it, it's just a bad series for him. I don't think they're coming back as players like Reid and McDaniels had big shooting games while Washington is doing nothing and it's still 2-0.

Definitely not best defense of the modern era when their PG is old and small, Towns while improved is still not All D or anything, and even Gobert is better in some matchups than others. I think some teams like 2019 Raptors and 2022 Celtics are better on D on paper.

Unless Pacers make it interesting, at this point it looks like the Celtics are going to win to me since they have the perfect team to guard Kyrie and Doncic.

Minnesota has zero chance without Gobert, their defense falls apart. What they need is for their two main scorers, KAT and Ant, to have some big games so they don't have to rely on Reid and McDaniel to carry the offense. All 3 games have been within 10 points so small changes could make or break the upcoming games. That said, 4 straight is a huge mountain to climb.

[70sFan]

I really hoped that Minny will win it all, I don't really love the idea of Mavs vs Celtics finals. Luka and Kyrie has been amazing though and they destroy a lot of silly narratives created in recent years, so good for them.

[rk2023]

Don't have faith in the Celtics to stop the Mavericks, but Celtics should be able to torch the Mavericks defense

They have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but we have PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr

[Doctor MJ]

Why are the Wolves doing a worse job of containing the Mavericks than the Thunder and Clippers? Wolves have the worst DTG out of the 3 against the Mavs?

I think this is the big question for everyone to ponder.

When the best RS defense, that's looked phenomenal in previous playoff series, looks worse than other comers against a new opponent, this is almost certainly got some matchup specific things going on.

The two things I'd point out:

1. Minny's ultra-big defense is clearly geared to stop interior attack, which while it includes attacks from a big like Jokic, is certainly supposed to discourage drives to the interior.

2. Here's what Minny's opponents look like by #Drives, Points%, and total points on those drives look like in the playoffs:

Dallas: 49.3 on 62.2% for 30.7 PPG
Phoenix: 44.5 on 60.1% for 26.8 PPG
Denver: 37.7 on 52.3% for 19.7 PPG

So, the most glaring thing here is just that Denver was not able to attack Minnesota in this way effectively, but obviously Dallas is one-uping Phoenix by this measure as well.

Looking at the same stat but for players:

Irving (DAL): 15.0 on 73.3% for 11.0 PPG
Doncic (DAL): 19.3 on 56.9% for 11.0 PPG
Booker (PHX): 14.0 on 67.9% for 9.5 PPG
Durant (PHX): 9.3 on 100% for 9.3 PPG
Murray (DEN): 15.6 on 47.7% for 7.4 PPG
Jokic (DEN): 8.6 on 76.7% for 6.6 PPG

So we see the top two Mavs have done the most per game scoring damage through drives.

I think Kyrie is clearly the guy standing out most in this way taking absurdly difficult shots and making them at a high rate. Not saying he's the MVP of the series, because Luka stands out in many ways, but let's just compare how this looks compared to last series:

Irving (DAL): 12.8 on 42.9% for 5.5 PPG
Doncic (DAL): 16.7 on 51.0% for 8.5 PPG

Luka's doing better against Minny than OKC to be sure, but it's not the night & day difference that we see for Kyrie.

Honestly, when I see Kyrie burning so hot, I can't help but think that some of this isn't about the opponent at all. Kyrie's a player who has long captured the hooper imagination with how amazing he look when he's on, but the reason why he's not an MVP level player is that he isn't always on.

So while I think that some of the answer here has to do with Minny not actually being built to stop someone like Kyrie, some of it is also probably bad luck for Minny. If Luka, whose well never truly runs dry, has a teammate hitting like this, there maybe no stopping Dallas.

Now as I say all of this, I think it's vital to shout out the job Dallas has done with the role players being shooters & lob threats, who - when paired with strong playmakers - allow Dallas to punish extra attention on Luka & Kyrie.

The lob threats (Lively & Gafford) I think make us all ask the question, "Why did it take so long to give Luka these guys?". Definitely worth discussing further.

The 3 point shooting is trickier because that's very clearly not a new thing for the Mavs, and their 3rd main 3-point shooter along with the stars (Washington) literally shot poorly during the regular season. It's clear that the answer was more complicated than "surround Luka with shooters", but if you're on the team, you're not a star, and you're not a lob threat, clearly you need to be hitting 3's to make all of this really sing.

There's now a question of how sustainable Washington's shooting is. The 3P% doesn't actually look all that unsustainable for a role player, but this isn't what Washington was doing leading up to this despite his "3J" nickname and promising career start in Charlotte.

[tsherkin]

There's now a question of how sustainable Washington's shooting is. The 3P% doesn't actually look all that unsustainable for a role player, but this isn't what Washington was doing leading up to this despite his "3J" nickname and promising career start in Charlotte.

This is a relevant question. Since and including Game 5 of the OKC series, he's been shooting 26.7% from 3 on 6.0 3PA/g, so it looks like he's reverted back to being terrible from 3 again, which makes sense. He got super hot, but he's actually been ass from the corner over his career to date. Over these past 5 games, he's shot 30%+ only twice, and over 33.3% only once.

EDIT:

I hasten to add, Washington is a career 35.0% shooter from the corners. He shot 24.5% from there during the RS this season. But he's been shooting (even with his disastrous shooting the past 5 games) 44.8% from the corner during the playoffs. I think regression was sort of inevitable.

[Bob8]

Why are the Wolves doing a worse job of containing the Mavericks than the Thunder and Clippers? Wolves have the worst DTG out of the 3 against the Mavs?

I think this is the big question for everyone to ponder.

When the best RS defense, that's looked phenomenal in previous playoff series, looks worse than other comers against a new opponent, this is almost certainly got some matchup specific things going on.

The two things I'd point out:

1. Minny's ultra-big defense is clearly geared to stop interior attack, which while it includes attacks from a big like Jokic, is certainly supposed to discourage drives to the interior.

2. Here's what Minny's opponents look like by #Drives, Points%, and total points on those drives look like in the playoffs:

Dallas: 49.3 on 62.2% for 30.7 PPG
Phoenix: 44.5 on 60.1% for 26.8 PPG
Denver: 37.7 on 52.3% for 19.7 PPG

So, the most glaring thing here is just that Denver was not able to attack Minnesota in this way effectively, but obviously Dallas is one-uping Phoenix by this measure as well.

Looking at the same stat but for players:

Irving (DAL): 15.0 on 73.3% for 11.0 PPG
Doncic (DAL): 19.3 on 56.9% for 11.0 PPG
Booker (PHX): 14.0 on 67.9% for 9.5 PPG
Durant (PHX): 9.3 on 100% for 9.3 PPG
Murray (DEN): 15.6 on 47.7% for 7.4 PPG
Jokic (DEN): 8.6 on 76.7% for 6.6 PPG

So we see the top two Mavs have done the most per game scoring damage through drives.

I think Kyrie is clearly the guy standing out most in this way taking absurdly difficult shots and making them at a high rate. Not saying he's the MVP of the series, because Luka stands out in many ways, but let's just compare how this looks compared to last series:

Irving (DAL): 12.8 on 42.9% for 5.5 PPG
Doncic (DAL): 16.7 on 51.0% for 8.5 PPG

Luka's doing better against Minny than OKC to be sure, but it's not the night & day difference that we see for Kyrie.

Honestly, when I see Kyrie burning so hot, I can't help but think that some of this isn't about the opponent at all. Kyrie's a player who has long captured the hooper imagination with how amazing he look when he's on, but the reason why he's not an MVP level player is that he isn't always on.

So while I think that some of the answer here has to do with Minny not actually being built to stop someone like Kyrie, some of it is also probably bad luck for Minny. If Luka, whose well never truly runs dry, has a teammate hitting like this, there maybe no stopping Dallas.

Now as I say all of this, I think it's vital to shout out the job Dallas has done with the role players being shooters & lob threats, who - when paired with strong playmakers - allow Dallas to punish extra attention on Luka & Kyrie.

The lob threats (Lively & Gafford) I think make us all ask the question, "Why did it take so long to give Luka these guys?". Definitely worth discussing further.

The 3 point shooting is trickier because that's very clearly not a new thing for the Mavs, and their 3rd main 3-point shooter along with the stars (Washington) literally shot poorly during the regular season. It's clear that the answer was more complicated than "surround Luka with shooters", but if you're on the team, you're not a star, and you're not a lob threat, clearly you need to be hitting 3's to make all of this really sing.

There's now a question of how sustainable Washington's shooting is. The 3P% doesn't actually look all that unsustainable for a role player, but this isn't what Washington was doing leading up to this despite his "3J" nickname and promising career start in Charlotte.

Minnesota is just doing elementary mistake. Mcdaniels can't stop Luka, but he might have better success with Kyrie. They should put bigger body on Luka, guard Kyrie with Mcdaniels and preserve Ant for offensive side. In game 3 they put Conley on Kyrie, which can't work of course.

Minnesota can't afford both to do whatever they want, they should eliminate at least one, and easier target is Kyrie. Funny thing is, that they have blueprint from OKC series. Yes, they don't have Dort, so Luka would have probably scored more, but after game 1, they should have changed D on Kyrie. Because, if you don't eliminate Kyrie, you can forget about doubling and blitzing Luka too. You for sure don't want to play 3/4 with Kyrie having the ball.

Problem with wide open corner 3s is, that even average shooter can have few very good shooting games and that's all you need in best of 7 series, when you have players like Luka and Kyrie, who alone can win few games. DJJ had 4 extremely bad shooting performances in OKC series, but was great in crucial games 5 and 6. The best thing about Washington and DJJ is their D, so they are very useful even, when they can't hit much. Washington is a big reason for Kat struggling and DJJ is doing impressive job on Ant.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Feel like people constantly underrate the impact of ball pressure on defense and, by the same token, the ability to beat ball pressure on offense. The Wolves completely suffocated the Nuggets and Suns with their press - made it hard for their guards to even get the ball past half-court. This hasn’t worked against Luka who just plods his way into the lane with his size and looks completely undeterred by anyone the Wolves throw at him. Now, Luka looked worse when he had guys like Lu Dort and Paul George on him but McDaniels, NAW and even Ant just don’t have the girth or size to bother him much.

I thought McDaniels did a fine job most of the time, but this isn't the 70s; we all know how it goes. McDaniels pressures and bodies. Luka, either with strength of body, proficiency of handle, or a screen (often a screen) gets past the initial defender. And then it's done, because nothing the Wolves were doing inside 18 feet deterred Luka at all. He has nasty pull-up J, he transitions his slow drives into post-ups, and then you get smoked with a lob, a fadeaway, a stepback, or a pass.

Lather, rinse, repeat. With a complete offensive player, there's only so much you can do except hope that they're cold and try to pressure the ball out of their hands and hope his passes are frustrated a little and the roleplayers can't hit their shots.

Tatum isn't going to do anything to Luka. He had triple-doubles against Boston both times he played them this year and averaged 35 ppg against them. In one game, he shot 56% from the floor. He had a rough shooting night the other game, mainly from a rough second quarter, and otherwise torched them again. If Boston has a chance, it's going to be more about getting the ball out of Luka's hands and hoping that Kyrie and PJ aren't clicking, and then by virtue more of the Celtic offense than its defense, IMHO.

Thoughts on Jaylen and Jrue on Luka?

I don't think Jaylen Brown is a half-bad matchup to have on Luka. Statistically, when you consider the number of possessions, he might be one of the best Luka defenders in the league:

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

As an aside...

From pure eye-test, I think peak Ben Simmons is actually the best Luka defender 1 on 1 ever. He's more athletic, arguably stronger, so he can take the bumps, and beautiful footwork. Brown is basically a lesser version of that in multiple ways, but the outline is kind of there.

[Texas Chuck]

its not about single matchups because Dallas will pick and repick to get guys off Luka. Where Boston has an edge is they can switch things easier or can blitz and recover.

But I mean at the end of games I'm putting Jrue on him. Sorry but that's Boston's best defender period and I'm not putting Brown or Tatum on him instead because they are bigger. I want best on best. And Jrue is the best in the world at not getting screened off.

[itsxtray]

All this talk about defense when Minnesota's offense is the real culprit. They can't score and only have one true creator in Conley, but he's ancient. Ant has shown flashes, but he's just an inconsistent decision-maker right now. Calling for screens when he already has Luka switched onto him instead of attacking him? Trying to hit Gobert on the short roll with bounce passes at his feet? Then we have Kat, who's just been a disaster in every way. The self-proclaimed greatest big man shooter of all time is 3-22 from three for the series, 13% And even with all that, they've only lost all three games by a combined 13 points. It could very easily be 3-0 Wolves right now.

So even if Boston can't stop Luka and Kyrie, if they get Porzingis back and he's healthy, their offense is just so much better than Minnesota's. Outscoring Dallas 4/7 times is the most likely scenario.

[TheGOATRises007]

All this talk about defense when Minnesota's offense is the real culprit. They can't score and only have one true creator in Conley, but he's ancient. Ant has shown flashes, but he's just an inconsistent decision-maker right now. Calling for screens when he already has Luka switched onto him instead of attacking him? Trying to hit Gobert on the short roll with bounce passes at his feet? Then we have Kat, who's just been a disaster in every way. The self-proclaimed greatest big man shooter of all time is 3-22 from three for the series, 13% And even with all that, they've only lost all three games by a combined 13 points. It could very easily be 3-0 Wolves right now.

So even if Boston can't stop Luka and Kyrie, if they get Porzingis back and he's healthy, their offense is just so much better than Minnesota's. Outscoring Dallas 4/7 times is the most likely scenario.

Their offense has flaws, but their defense is also getting torched vs the Mavs.

KAT is laying an all-time egg though as well. He's been brutal.

[TheGOATRises007]

The Celtics are obviously loaded, but it'll be interesting to see how they do vs a much better team in the finals.

Probably the easiest run to a finals in the East since the Cavs in 2017.

[Special_Puppy]

Tatum absolutely carrying his team against a brutal Eastern Conference.

[ardee]

I really hoped that Minny will win it all, I don't really love the idea of Mavs vs Celtics finals. Luka and Kyrie has been amazing though and they destroy a lot of silly narratives created in recent years, so good for them.

Why don't you like the idea of Mavs/Celtics?

Like I've said before, it echoes the 2016 Finals, which is frankly the best Finals series any of us have probably ever witnessed live.

An elite big 2 with one of them being a mega-star supported by a competent cast vs a historic regular season team with a handful of All-Star caliber guys, it's gonna be cinematic stuff.

[migya]

I really hoped that Minny will win it all, I don't really love the idea of Mavs vs Celtics finals. Luka and Kyrie has been amazing though and they destroy a lot of silly narratives created in recent years, so good for them.

Why don't you like the idea of Mavs/Celtics?

Like I've said before, it echoes the 2016 Finals, which is frankly the best Finals series any of us have probably ever witnessed live.

An elite big 2 with one of them being a mega-star supported by a competent cast vs a historic regular season team with a handful of All-Star caliber guys, it's gonna be cinematic stuff.

Unlikely now, but imagine if the TWolves won it all, the talk of potential dynasty and over blown reactions.

If the Celts lose this season the criticism will be among the most toward any team in the last twenty years.

[ShotCreator]

Derrick White is an interesting cover on Kyrie. Big physical guard. He might seriously give him issues.

But I don't see Boston stopping Dallas. Haliburton and Nembhard gave them too many problems for my liking.

I just don't see it. But matchup-wise Holiday is his unscreenable nature and White's giant frame relative to Kyrie might give them the odd stop they need to win this inevitable shootout.

If KP is back and healthy that'll be interesting. He might be another no mans land big for Luka to tear apart in the pick and roll.

[70sFan]

I really hoped that Minny will win it all, I don't really love the idea of Mavs vs Celtics finals. Luka and Kyrie has been amazing though and they destroy a lot of silly narratives created in recent years, so good for them.

Why don't you like the idea of Mavs/Celtics?

Like I've said before, it echoes the 2016 Finals, which is frankly the best Finals series any of us have probably ever witnessed live.

An elite big 2 with one of them being a mega-star supported by a competent cast vs a historic regular season team with a handful of All-Star caliber guys, it's gonna be cinematic stuff.

I don't find these two teams that fun to watch to be honest, that's it and there is nothing substantial behind it.

My homer soul also prefers 2013 over 2016 by the way.

[70sFan]

I really hoped that Minny will win it all, I don't really love the idea of Mavs vs Celtics finals. Luka and Kyrie has been amazing though and they destroy a lot of silly narratives created in recent years, so good for them.

Why don't you like the idea of Mavs/Celtics?

Like I've said before, it echoes the 2016 Finals, which is frankly the best Finals series any of us have probably ever witnessed live.

An elite big 2 with one of them being a mega-star supported by a competent cast vs a historic regular season team with a handful of All-Star caliber guys, it's gonna be cinematic stuff.

I don't find these two teams that fun to watch to be honest, that's it and there is nothing substantial behind it.

My homer soul also prefers 2013 over 2016 by the way.

[RCM88x]

The Celtics are obviously loaded, but it'll be interesting to see how they do vs a much better team in the finals.

Probably the easiest run to a finals in the East since the Cavs in 2017.

Cavs actually had a better raw ORTG entering those Finals than these Celtics do. Those 2017 playoffs were petty wild and not necessarily in highly competitive way.

[Special_Puppy]

The Celtics are obviously loaded, but it'll be interesting to see how they do vs a much better team in the finals.

Probably the easiest run to a finals in the East since the Cavs in 2017.

Cavs actually had a better raw ORTG entering those Finals than these Celtics do. Those 2017 playoffs were petty wild and not necessarily in highly competitive way.

Which team had the highest net rating ever entering the finals?