Retro Player of the Year Project

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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#361 » by Sedale Threatt » Sat May 15, 2010 6:49 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:Lebron is still number 1 for me, and will be regardless of what happens. In my MVP ballot for the RS, I had

Lebron

(gap)

Wade/Howard/Durant

(gap)

Kobe

I could only see Wade, Howard, or Durant passing going into the playoffs. But for that to happen, it would have an epic PS melt-down by Lebron (think 95 Robinson), and a historic run by one of those three.

Lebron, despite the disaster of game 5, overall played great in the PS. That means it would be almost impossible for me to consider taking someone over Lebron. Out of the three candidates for passing Lebron.

Durant played awful vs LA so he is out.

Wade did play at a high enough level that I would consider him. But his team was bounced out of the 1st round. I'm not elevating Wade for a great series against Boston, which IMO was better than Lebron's effort, but was still only a 1st round series.

Howard struggled vs Charlotte. He had an excellent series vs Atlanta but it wasn't at the level necessary to come close to passing Lebron. Overall, he's not close in the PS to what it would take for me to rank Howard over Lebron.


That's the thing -- bad as he was against the Celtics, there's really nobody else that can make a serious case for No. 1.

Hold Durant to the same standard and he is out. Kobe was good this year but not nearly enough to make up the distance between him and LeBron. Wade and Howard are probably the closest candidates, but I'm not overly thrilled with either.

So LeBron is probably still No. 1.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#362 » by semi-sentient » Sat May 15, 2010 7:00 pm

LeBron's numbers, overall, were still good in the playoffs, but he did not play well overall. He had a couple of good games against the Celtics, but overall, that was a pretty bad series for him. Chicago sucked so him being great against them doesn't negate how poorly he played against the C's.

I think this is going to be interesting, because I can't picture myself putting Wilt over Russell in many of the years that Russell wins just because Wilt had dominant statistics (which, lets face it, is all he really cared about). LeBron, IMO, falls in the same spotlight. Outside of just statistics, his leadership sucked and so did his defense. Again, what's the point in being great in the RS if you can't maintain that level when it matters most? Still, it's hard to really put anyone above LeBron.

Regarding Kobe, I don't believe there is any kind of big gap between him and guys like Durant, Wade, and Howard. People need to remember that going into January Kobe and LeBron were neck-and-neck as far as the MVP debate is concerned, and then injuries became an issue and LeBron took over for good by late January. Durant was not even ahead of Kobe in the debates, IIRC, until mid-February when Kobe decided to shut it down for a bit, and even then Kobe did come back and played well (the game-winner against the Celtics?) to somewhat redeem himself. His numbers in March were very good, but then in April injuries again came into the picture and he once again had to shut it down. The point is, we don't penalize guys for having poor teammates because it's beyond the control the guys were scrutinizing. Likewise, injuries can't be controlled either, so would it be fair to give Kobe a pass if he does continue to play extremely well in the post-season? IMO, it's something to consider.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#363 » by semi-sentient » Sat May 15, 2010 7:05 pm

Oh, and by pass, I mean moving him up above guys like Wade, Durant, and Howard, not necessarily above LeBron.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#364 » by Sedale Threatt » Sat May 15, 2010 7:10 pm

Yeah, like we were talking about last night, I've already been thinking about the Chamberlain -- James parrallel.

I've been a huge defender of Wilt's over the years, but having just seen a statistical marvel sputter when it counts, I'm wondering about how I'm going to vote during those years.

When you play great and your team loses, like the Cavs did last year, I'm not sure what else you can do. But this series...totally different circumstances.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#365 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 7:12 pm

I'm looking forward to David Robinson votes in the 90s, it should really expose people's thoughts on RS/PS.
Doing a preliminary review of the seasons, and this will change, but I have him right now:

96: 2nd
95: 3rd
94: 4th
93: 4th
92: unsure
91: 5th
90: 5th
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#366 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 7:19 pm

I also fully expect, and will probably deserve homer attacks for some of my Ewing votes.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#367 » by Sedale Threatt » Sat May 15, 2010 7:32 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:I also fully expect, and will probably deserve homer attacks for some of my Ewing votes.


I'll just post this every time you do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLuYkPum8As

(Admire the awesome craftsmanship)

All I know is that I'm approaching a pretty massive run on Jordan.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#368 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 7:35 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:I also fully expect, and will probably deserve homer attacks for some of my Ewing votes.


I'll just post this every time you do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLuYkPum8As

All I know is that I'm approaching a pretty massive run on Jordan.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2yhBzJjis[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSfy4AhDDnw[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUJi8i1xlw4[/youtube]
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#369 » by Sedale Threatt » Sat May 15, 2010 7:40 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGVt7eIYwVc[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxG6F8qKsoQ[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiB3xwnC4ts[/youtube]
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#370 » by Gongxi » Sat May 15, 2010 7:43 pm

That Jordan move is one of the more ridiculous plays of all-time. Two guys just got shook and then he dunks on the center. Stupid.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#371 » by Sedale Threatt » Sat May 15, 2010 7:43 pm

LOL!!!

I have to run. Low blow with the HIV announcement, BTW! I tried to find footage of Ewing making one of his famous championship guarantees, but none exists.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#372 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 7:45 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:LOL!!!

I have to run. Low blow with the HIV announcement, BTW! I tried to find footage of Ewing making one of his famous championship guarantees, but none exists.


Hey, I have to argue for Ewing's knicks and you got Showtime. I gotta go Golota with the lowblows in this situation.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#373 » by ElGee » Sat May 15, 2010 7:56 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
ElGee wrote:Of course it has a significant impact on his image, because his image is shaped by the masses who are slaves to team success, What Have You Done For Me Lately disease, inability to analyze the sport beyond basic box stats and suffer from All Or Nothing Syndrome (see: Manning, Peyton, Super Bowl).


OK, then -- give us your analysis of his performance beyond to so-called "basic box score stats." Which is an ironic statement, as you seem to be clinging pretty heavily to his pts/rbs/assts from Game 6 and not much else.

What subtleties, what intangibles that elude basic observation did he bring that can outweigh what occurred?

I'm sure he'll be thrilled to have been "the best player in the series" despite scoring less, shooting worse, committing more turnovers with less assists than he did during the RS, all while playing with noticeably less energy and intensity in more games than not, as his team was eliminated by a team they finished 11 games ahead of in the standings.


First of all, he didn't play poorly for 2/3 of the series. And he wasn't "awful" in game 6 (Bastillon). The 9 turnovers certainly nullified a fantastic game, but that didn't make the game awful. It was better than nearly every Kobe Bryant playoff game in 2010.

Secondly, in the words of Mark Jackson, you're better than that Sedale. The Celtics were 23-5 out of the gates before chemistry and injury severely derailed their season. When healthy, from 2008-2010 that group has played around 65-win basketball, and they brought back elite -- no, super-elite -- defense in the final few games. It's inaccurate to depict this as a JordanBullsian situation of a superior team crumbling against an inferior opponent, when it was quite clear from the opening game of the series that Boston absolutely dominated Cleveland in personnel (players 2-7), on the defensive end and in coaching.

Mike Brown's bizarre rotations -- Shaquille O'Neal logging so many minutes, Anderson Varejao logging so few, West and Z coming and going, leaving Mo Williams on Rondo for so long -- didn't affect how LeBron played as an individual, but they did play a role in Cleveland losing, which everyone seems to want to blame LeBron for. Antwan Jamison and Mo WIlliams, who were guarding arguably the two best Celtics all series, were absolutely horrible defensively. Again, shifting all of this blame to LeBron is bizarre.

As for James, he was one of the best defensive players in the series (and has been one of the best defensive players in the playoffs). Anyone who's done analysis of the ~484 possessions he played in the series would see that his man converts at an extremely low rate, he completely flummoxed Paul Pierce (I think I mentioned this in the 08 thread), he created nearly an extra turnover per game not captured in the box, he committed very few shooting fouls, made a handful of defensive errors, had a number of blocks on layups/close shots, added nearly 8 defensive rebounds per game and over 2 steals per game.

Offensively, outside of the box score numbers, he drew 47 fouls (Rondo was second in the series with 28), he created offense for teammates 40 times -- that is, the number of times the defense collapsed on him and a teammate ended up with an open look because of it. Rondo was second again with 29 occurrences.

Rondo's game 3 was a little better than James game 6, mostly because of turnovers. But the games were quite similar and the fact that Rondo's is lauded as historic while people, including someone in this thread, literally called James' "awful" is flabbergasting, to say the least.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#374 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 8:07 pm

ElGee wrote:

Secondly, in the words of Mark Jackson, you're better than that Sedale. The Celtics were 23-5 out of the gates before chemistry and injury severely derailed their season. When healthy, from 2008-2010 that group has played around 65-win basketball, and they brought back elite -- no, super-elite -- defense in the final few games. It's inaccurate to depict this as a JordanBullsian situation of a superior team crumbling against an inferior opponent, when it was quite clear from the opening game of the series that Boston absolutely dominated Cleveland in personnel (players 2-7), on the defensive end and in coaching.


The idea of Boston being this machine, that was only limited by injuries isn't true. After KG came back they finished 23-19 with a point differential of + 1.33.

Cleveland got upset by an inferior opponent.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#375 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat May 15, 2010 8:08 pm

El Gee

I do agree with your central argument about Lebron's individual performance.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#376 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sat May 15, 2010 8:11 pm

ElGee wrote:
Sedale Threatt wrote:
ElGee wrote:Of course it has a significant impact on his image, because his image is shaped by the masses who are slaves to team success, What Have You Done For Me Lately disease, inability to analyze the sport beyond basic box stats and suffer from All Or Nothing Syndrome (see: Manning, Peyton, Super Bowl).


OK, then -- give us your analysis of his performance beyond to so-called "basic box score stats." Which is an ironic statement, as you seem to be clinging pretty heavily to his pts/rbs/assts from Game 6 and not much else.

What subtleties, what intangibles that elude basic observation did he bring that can outweigh what occurred?

I'm sure he'll be thrilled to have been "the best player in the series" despite scoring less, shooting worse, committing more turnovers with less assists than he did during the RS, all while playing with noticeably less energy and intensity in more games than not, as his team was eliminated by a team they finished 11 games ahead of in the standings.


First of all, he didn't play poorly for 2/3 of the series. And he wasn't "awful" in game 6 (Bastillon). The 9 turnovers certainly nullified a fantastic game, but that didn't make the game awful. It was better than nearly every Kobe Bryant playoff game in 2010.

Lebron played poorly in the last 3 games. Kobe's last 5 games > his game 6, so I'm not sure where you're coming from with this.

It's fascinating to see the double standards in how Dirk's playoff failures are treated vs how Lebron's failures are. Yes, Lebron's production was good, BUT when you play in a 1 on 5 system a star player is almost always going to have good productionm, since everything runs through him. Nevermind the fact that this very 1 on 5 style nullifies his supporting cast and turns them into spot up shooters.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#377 » by Doctor MJ » Sat May 15, 2010 8:22 pm

Semi-Sentient's updated the POY page (so prompt, badass!):
http://www.dolem.com/poy/

Thoughts?

I'm realizing that Duncan's going to end up absolutely huge in our list. Possibly up 50% over his MVP shares. I expected that he'd improve because of his typical overperformance in the playoffs, but still, pretty huge.

EDIT: Hey Sentient, seeing a couple discrepancies from my list. Going to list them, and then see if I can figure out the problem.

You've got Duncan at 5.086, I have him at 5.066.
You've got Billups at 0.013, I have him at 0.018.

EDIT: Okay, in '02-03 you have Duncan with 1 3rd place vote instead of 0, and you show 26 3rd place votes with only 25 of the rest. In '04-05 you're missing a 5th place vote for Chauncey Billups.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#378 » by bastillon » Sat May 15, 2010 8:24 pm

I'd be interested in LeBron's stats without garbage time. I have a strong feeling that he stat-padded quite a bit when it was over. he was visibly bad when the series was on the line... and the way the series ended ? with Cavs giving up the last minute ? no way, I can let that guy be my POY.

btw. if you want to put that in the context, LeBron won only once against a 50-W team (2007 Pistons). once in his entire career. I just think he's unproven in the playoffs and got very overrated after excellent RSs the last two years. competition matters and until LeBron wins against a strong competition, I won't give him as much credit as you guys do. after all, I'm bashing Kidd in 2002 and 2003 for this, so I'm gonna be consistent about it and do the same with LeBron.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#379 » by ElGee » Sat May 15, 2010 8:27 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:
ElGee wrote:

Secondly, in the words of Mark Jackson, you're better than that Sedale. The Celtics were 23-5 out of the gates before chemistry and injury severely derailed their season. When healthy, from 2008-2010 that group has played around 65-win basketball, and they brought back elite -- no, super-elite -- defense in the final few games. It's inaccurate to depict this as a JordanBullsian situation of a superior team crumbling against an inferior opponent, when it was quite clear from the opening game of the series that Boston absolutely dominated Cleveland in personnel (players 2-7), on the defensive end and in coaching.


The idea of Boston being this machine, that was only limited by injuries isn't true. After KG came back they finished 23-19 with a point differential of + 1.33.

Cleveland got upset by an inferior opponent.


spr - they arent a machine. But they were limited by injuries. Garnett was getting healthier, as was Pierce. But they were playing hobbled.

Chemistry was probably the bigger issue -- they blew a record number of 4th quarter leads while transitioning from KG-Pierce to Rondo being their best player. The defining pattern in those games was Rondo would let off the gas in the 4th quarter and the Celtics team would fall to pieces. He didn't do that in this series, the team was healthier, and they certainly looked much better than a 50-win team. (Note - Rivers also rested players down the stretch, not caring about dropping in the standings because they didn't think they could lose HCA in the first round.)
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Re: Retro Player of the Year Project 

Post#380 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sat May 15, 2010 8:28 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Semi-Sentient's updated the POY page (so prompt, badass!):
http://www.dolem.com/poy/

Thoughts?

I'm realizing that Duncan's going to end up absolutely huge in our list. Possibly up 50% over his MVP shares. I expected that he'd improve because of his typical overperformance in the playoffs, but still, pretty huge.

Interestingly enough, I think Duncan will end up second to Kareem in All-time POY shares.
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