Ron Swanson wrote:Discussing how effective Love was as a 3rd option to compliment Lebron/Kyrie and then using lineup data with Lebron off the floor? If that's not the definition of goal-posting moving then I don't know what is.
I am specifically using the cavs record with kyrie and love in
games where lebron didn't play. Your claim is that playing with Lebron limited love, so I am taking him out of the equation as much as possible.
Even using basic on/off data would tell you that Love-lineups were drastically better (we're talking +7-8 on average in both RS/PS) than non-Love lineups and that should be the only thing that really matters here unless we're talking about T-Wolves Love (which we already know impact stats paint very favorably). And we've already brought up the RPM data which shows impact stats still liked Cavs K-Love a lot (specifically in 2016-17 when he upped his 3PT volume). If no one's gonna refute that or explain why the data is noisy, then we'll just agree to disagree.
It might help if you actually read what people are saying:
On top of that, if we avoid m-regularization and go from raw signals, jordan looks signifcantly worse, something that seems to hold for MJ whenever he's compared to better or much better paint protectors(hakeem, duncan, and Kareem all compare favorably and KG compares favorably in the regular season).m-regularization can lead to a misdistribution of value. You might have noticed that in plus-minus stats, everything plateus's around 25 wins? That's
artifical.
Stretches of outlier impact tend to get misdistributed to role players(especially when they're putting up nice box-scores). Additionally, the process of box-regression can lead to non-box impact being lost(very relevant when dealing with primary paint protectors). This is why it's important to keep track of
raw signals.
If kevin love was such an impactful player, why couldn't he and kyrie keep the lineup above a 30 win pace when lebron wasn't there?
If kevin love was such an impactful player, why were the cavs basically unaffected by his injury in the 15 playoffs? APM would tell you it's because tristan thompson and delladova were really good defensively, and yet...
the cavs defense collapses to one of the worst in the league in games where Lebron didn't play
How were the cavs so bad if love and kyrie were really good attackers and md+tt was a good defense?
APM is cool, but it needs to be checked against what actually happens. And what actually happened flatly contradicts your assessment of Love.