2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[lessthanjake]

The 2022 Warriors supporting cast actually had a lot of players that aren’t all that great defensively. Jordan Poole is a bad defender. Looney is a center so that’s basically inherently good for defense but he’s not particularly good defensively for a center. Klay Thompson has been a good defender in the past but post-injury that’s not the case. Bjelica is not a good defender. Otto Porter Jr. is a pretty good defender but is nothing particularly special. Wiggins is actually usually a pretty bad defender, but did play defense well that year. Meanwhile, of course, Draymond Green is an extremely good defender, and Gary Payton II is a great defender too. So it was a bit of a mixed bag defensively. Ultimately, the overall picture is good defensively, in significant part because Draymond is a big deal defensively. But I also think a lot of it was just that a lot of the guys really bought in on the defensive end that year and played well together. You had guys like Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. Gary Payton II, and Steph himself probably all playing the best defense of their careers, and more generally the team just being very cohesive on that end. Overall, I’d say the 2022 Warriors defense being really good that year was more about just playing well together as a group than it was about the group being actually really stacked with defensive talent. And I think it’s no coincidence that they haven’t been a very good defense in the two years after that, despite largely having the same roster (including actually getting more minutes from Draymond during the season). It was just a bit of a flash in the pan defensively, IMO.

I’m not sure that that really maps on in any meaningful way to the question of whether 2022 was a “carry job.” After all, whether the 2022 Warriors were playing great defense in a way that was sustainable long-term or whether it was basically just a defensive flash in the pan doesn’t really change the fact that they were in fact playing great defense that year. Rather, I’m just saying I don’t think they were stacked defensively, and I think looking at their roster it’s a bit surprising how well they defended that year.

[Outside]

2022 Warriors played very good team defense. Draymond and GPII were great individually, Wiggins was particularly great in that series (especially on Tatum),Kevon Looney and Otto Porter were good, and Steph was a plus defender, but they had broken Klay and Jordan Poole playing major minutes. They weren't a great defense, but they were able to exploit Tatum and Brown's weaknesses (inability of both to go left, Brown's handle, and Tatum's performance in fourth quarters) to put pressure on the others to make shots.

Boston's players have all learned from that experience and are improved now, in addition to the roster additions.

[jalengreen]

The 2022 Warriors supporting cast actually had a lot of players that aren’t all that great defensively. Jordan Poole is a bad defender. Looney is a center so that’s basically inherently good for defense but he’s not particularly good defensively for a center. Klay Thompson has been a good defender in the past but post-injury that’s not the case. Bjelica is not a good defender. Otto Porter Jr. is a pretty good defender but is nothing particularly special. Wiggins is actually usually a pretty bad defender, but did play defense well that year. Meanwhile, of course, Draymond Green is an extremely good defender, and Gary Payton II is a great defender too. So it was a bit of a mixed bag defensively. Ultimately, the overall picture is good defensively, in significant part because Draymond is a big deal defensively. But I also think a lot of it was just that a lot of the guys really bought in on the defensive end that year and played well together. You had guys like Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. Gary Payton II, and Steph himself probably all playing the best defense of their careers, and more generally the team just being very cohesive on that end. Overall, I’d say the 2022 Warriors defense being really good that year was more about just playing well together as a group than it was about the group being actually really stacked with defensive talent. And I think it’s no coincidence that they haven’t been a very good defense in the two years after that, despite largely having the same roster (including actually getting more minutes from Draymond during the season). It was just a bit of a flash in the pan defensively, IMO.

I’m not sure that that really maps on in any meaningful way to the question of whether 2022 was a “carry job.” After all, whether the 2022 Warriors were playing great defense in a way that was sustainable long-term or whether it was basically just a defensive flash in the pan doesn’t really change the fact that they were in fact playing great defense that year. Rather, I’m just saying I don’t think they were stacked defensively, and I think looking at their roster it’s a bit surprising how well they defended that year.

Well, I think it certainly wasn't sustainable long term because their core was 31, 31, and 33 years old at that point. And already having shown signs of aging. Klay was no longer Klay, and Steph has been an outright poor defender since 2022 IMO.

While the 2023 Warriors did see 1000 more minutes from Draymond (a lesser version, probably), they also saw 3672 fewer minutes from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 in 2023 than they had in 2022. All crucial defensive pieces for them in 2022 - I think Otto Porter Jr especially was highly underrated. Instead, Klay got more minutes (which defensively was not a positive), as did Lamb and DiVincenzo. Clear defensive downgrades.

So when you consider how much contribution they lost from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 along with the continued decline of their three aging stars in Steph, Dray, and Klay, I don't think the Warriors' defensive decline was really a surprise, nor does it say much about their success in 2022.

[AEnigma]

What are the actual carry jobs? I'm gonna assume every single Lebron season are there any others?

Ohayo listed three before this message, but my issue is with the framework. With the standards set, I could also argue for runs like 1983 Moses, and that just seems patently absurd when we are talking about an MVP joining a top three team and regular Finals contender. As an overall playoff run 2022 Curry is not especially unique, and on a base level I am much more impressed by 1975 Barry, 2006 Wade, and 2011 Dirk as other “offence-heavy” carries.

However, the focus was more specifically on the Finals, because that is indeed where Curry did the clearest offensive “carrying”. I see that as a little silly, both because it focuses on one series alone and because a different approach by the Celtics could have made Curry look “worse” without Curry being worse. They could have pushed him to be more of a traditional distributor, in which case maybe he posts a high assist average but a lower scoring average without inherently doing less for his team. Yeah, production matters, and I am not going to say a series where a player is asked to score 30 is comparable to a series where a player’s primary job is to act as a sort of decoy drawing the best opposing defender, but it is still important to remember it was opponent-specific.

That said, in the context of “series where a player successfully carried a title team’s offence against a tough opponent,” we still have Wade’s 2006 Finals, Dirk’s 2011 conference finals, Barry’s 1975 Finals / conference finals (more the former), Erving’s 1976 conference finals and 1974 conference finals, Kawhi’s 2019 conference semifinals Shaq’s 2000 Finals, Duncan’s 2003 Finals and conference semifinals (and conference finals depending on how we feel about Dirk’s injury), essentially all of Hakeem’s 1994 series, numerous Jordan series… And while I do think Curry’s playmaking pushes him near to or even at the top of that list of names offensively, he is also by a margin the least significant defender on the list.

Great series, and imo the most impressive of Steph’s career, but nothing historically abnormal in my eyes. It is the type of series you expect these true all-timers to be able to give. Fine to leave it at that.

[lessthanjake]

The 2022 Warriors supporting cast actually had a lot of players that aren’t all that great defensively. Jordan Poole is a bad defender. Looney is a center so that’s basically inherently good for defense but he’s not particularly good defensively for a center. Klay Thompson has been a good defender in the past but post-injury that’s not the case. Bjelica is not a good defender. Otto Porter Jr. is a pretty good defender but is nothing particularly special. Wiggins is actually usually a pretty bad defender, but did play defense well that year. Meanwhile, of course, Draymond Green is an extremely good defender, and Gary Payton II is a great defender too. So it was a bit of a mixed bag defensively. Ultimately, the overall picture is good defensively, in significant part because Draymond is a big deal defensively. But I also think a lot of it was just that a lot of the guys really bought in on the defensive end that year and played well together. You had guys like Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. Gary Payton II, and Steph himself probably all playing the best defense of their careers, and more generally the team just being very cohesive on that end. Overall, I’d say the 2022 Warriors defense being really good that year was more about just playing well together as a group than it was about the group being actually really stacked with defensive talent. And I think it’s no coincidence that they haven’t been a very good defense in the two years after that, despite largely having the same roster (including actually getting more minutes from Draymond during the season). It was just a bit of a flash in the pan defensively, IMO.

I’m not sure that that really maps on in any meaningful way to the question of whether 2022 was a “carry job.” After all, whether the 2022 Warriors were playing great defense in a way that was sustainable long-term or whether it was basically just a defensive flash in the pan doesn’t really change the fact that they were in fact playing great defense that year. Rather, I’m just saying I don’t think they were stacked defensively, and I think looking at their roster it’s a bit surprising how well they defended that year.

Well, I think it certainly wasn't sustainable long term because their core was 31, 31, and 33 years old at that point. And already having shown signs of aging. Klay was no longer Klay, and Steph has been an outright poor defender since 2022 IMO.

While the 2023 Warriors did see 1000 more minutes from Draymond (a lesser version, probably), they also saw 3672 fewer minutes from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 in 2023 than they had in 2022. All crucial defensive pieces for them in 2022 - I think Otto Porter Jr especially was highly underrated. Instead, Klay got more minutes (which defensively was not a positive), as did Lamb and DiVincenzo. Clear defensive downgrades.

So when you consider how much contribution they lost from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 along with the continued decline of their three aging stars in Steph, Dray, and Klay, I don't think the Warriors' defensive decline was really a surprise, nor does it say much about their success in 2022.

I think these are fair points, but I’d note a couple quick things:

1. Wiggins did miss a lot of time in the 2023 season, but it’s not like the Warriors were incredible defensively when he did play. In the games Wiggins played, the Warriors had a defensive rating that would’ve put them 8th in the league. That goes up to 7th if you filter it down to just the 36 games that Wiggins and Draymond both played in. That’s solid, of course, but quite far off from what the team had done the prior year. For reference, the Warriors’ rDRTG in games with Draymond and Wiggins in 2023 was -1.98 (negative being good), while it was -9.58 in 2022. That’s a massive difference! Is some of this due to mostly losing OPJ and GP2 and replacing their minutes with downgrades defensively? Sure. But that’s a really big defensive difference that I don’t think is just due to shuffling around of bench guys. You’re probably right that key guys being a year older didn’t help either. But it really was a huge difference, and I do think there’s just a significant element of the team simply having superior team chemistry defensively in that one year.

2. On the age point, it’s worth noting that the 2022 Warriors were *also* substantially better defensively than the 2021 Warriors. At a glance, they went from -2.2 rDRTG to -5.1 rDRTG. Which is a lot on its own, but even that obscures the fact that Draymond missed half the season in 2022. The 2022 Warriors had a -8.47 rDRTG in games with Draymond, and the 2021 Warriors had a -3.69 rDRTG in games with Draymond. And that’s despite the aging point going against them in that timeframe. Granted, a lot of the role players were different that year, but that wasn’t just a one-way street of defensive upgrades in 2022 (for instance, they lost Kent Bazemore, who had been a great defender for them, were giving fewer minutes to Toscano-Anderson in favor of Klay, etc.). Wiseman was a defensive problem, but the rDRTG in 2021 in the games Draymond played in and Wiseman didn’t (which was 31 games) was -5.33, so still a good bit below 2022.

Basically, I think you make valid points here, but I’m inclined to think the explanatory power of the stuff you’ve identified isn’t enough to explain the entire anomalous defensive improvement in that one season. And I tend to think that a huge aspect here was just team defensive chemistry and a few guys happening to have abnormally good years defensively.

[Special_Puppy]

The 2022 Warriors supporting cast actually had a lot of players that aren’t all that great defensively. Jordan Poole is a bad defender. Looney is a center so that’s basically inherently good for defense but he’s not particularly good defensively for a center. Klay Thompson has been a good defender in the past but post-injury that’s not the case. Bjelica is not a good defender. Otto Porter Jr. is a pretty good defender but is nothing particularly special. Wiggins is actually usually a pretty bad defender, but did play defense well that year. Meanwhile, of course, Draymond Green is an extremely good defender, and Gary Payton II is a great defender too. So it was a bit of a mixed bag defensively. Ultimately, the overall picture is good defensively, in significant part because Draymond is a big deal defensively. But I also think a lot of it was just that a lot of the guys really bought in on the defensive end that year and played well together. You had guys like Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. Gary Payton II, and Steph himself probably all playing the best defense of their careers, and more generally the team just being very cohesive on that end. Overall, I’d say the 2022 Warriors defense being really good that year was more about just playing well together as a group than it was about the group being actually really stacked with defensive talent. And I think it’s no coincidence that they haven’t been a very good defense in the two years after that, despite largely having the same roster (including actually getting more minutes from Draymond during the season). It was just a bit of a flash in the pan defensively, IMO.

I’m not sure that that really maps on in any meaningful way to the question of whether 2022 was a “carry job.” After all, whether the 2022 Warriors were playing great defense in a way that was sustainable long-term or whether it was basically just a defensive flash in the pan doesn’t really change the fact that they were in fact playing great defense that year. Rather, I’m just saying I don’t think they were stacked defensively, and I think looking at their roster it’s a bit surprising how well they defended that year.

Well, I think it certainly wasn't sustainable long term because their core was 31, 31, and 33 years old at that point. And already having shown signs of aging. Klay was no longer Klay, and Steph has been an outright poor defender since 2022 IMO.

While the 2023 Warriors did see 1000 more minutes from Draymond (a lesser version, probably), they also saw 3672 fewer minutes from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 in 2023 than they had in 2022. All crucial defensive pieces for them in 2022 - I think Otto Porter Jr especially was highly underrated. Instead, Klay got more minutes (which defensively was not a positive), as did Lamb and DiVincenzo. Clear defensive downgrades.

So when you consider how much contribution they lost from Wiggins, OPJ, and GP2 along with the continued decline of their three aging stars in Steph, Dray, and Klay, I don't think the Warriors' defensive decline was really a surprise, nor does it say much about their success in 2022.

I think these are fair points, but I’d note a couple quick things:

1. Wiggins did miss a lot of time in the 2023 season, but it’s not like the Warriors were incredible defensively when he did play. In the games Wiggins played, the Warriors had a defensive rating that would’ve put them 8th in the league. That goes up to 7th if you filter it down to just the 36 games that Wiggins and Draymond both played in. That’s solid, of course, but quite far off from what the team had done the prior year. For reference, the Warriors’ rDRTG in games with Draymond and Wiggins in 2023 was -1.98 (negative being good), while it was -9.58 in 2022. That’s a massive difference! Is some of this due to mostly losing OPJ and GP2 and replacing their minutes with downgrades defensively? Sure. But that’s a really big defensive difference that I don’t think is just due to shuffling around of bench guys. You’re probably right that key guys being a year older didn’t help either. But it really was a huge difference, and I do think there’s just a significant element of the team simply having superior team chemistry defensively in that one year.

2. On the age point, it’s worth noting that the 2022 Warriors were *also* substantially better defensively than the 2021 Warriors. At a glance, they went from -2.2 rDRTG to -5.1 rDRTG. Which is a lot on its own, but even that obscures the fact that Draymond missed half the season in 2022. The 2022 Warriors had a -8.47 rDRTG in games with Draymond, and the 2021 Warriors had a -3.69 rDRTG in games with Draymond. And that’s despite the aging point going against them in that timeframe. Granted, a lot of the role players were different that year, but that wasn’t just a one-way street of defensive upgrades in 2022 (for instance, they lost Kent Bazemore, who had been a great defender for them, were giving fewer minutes to Toscano-Anderson in favor of Klay, etc.). Wiseman was a defensive problem, but the rDRTG in 2021 in the games Draymond played in and Wiseman didn’t (which was 31 games) was -5.33, so still a good bit below 2022.

Basically, I think you make valid points here, but I’m inclined to think the explanatory power of the stuff you’ve identified isn’t enough to explain the entire anomalous defensive improvement in that one season. And I tend to think that a huge aspect here was just team defensive chemistry and a few guys happening to have abnormally good years defensively.

What's weird is that if you dig into the composite of advanced stats, its actually not a *few* guys who had a *dramatic* defensive improvement. Its almost every Warriors being a *tick* better defensively than they were the surrounding years. Geniunely have no idea what happened that year to cause that. They didn't change coaches or anything. My rough guess is that the reason for why the 2022 Warriors defense is so much better than the surrounding years is ~45% anomalous defensive improvement and ~55% roster changes.

[Dr Positivity]

It’s not a coincidence 17th ranked offense feels too low for Warriors. I think they played harder on D in 2022 than 2023 but it hurt their offense.

[Special_Puppy]

It’s not a coincidence 17th ranked offense feels too low for Warriors. I think they played harder on D in 2022 than 2023 but it hurt their offense.

I think that's probably true for Steph Curry and Draymond Green (who were a tick worse on offense than they were in the surrounding years.) Poole having a career year offensively balanced that out

[parsnips33]

I don't think we can fully discount the possibility of some higher power looking favorably upon the Warriors and their fans

[GSP]

Yeah this is one of the best teams ever haters

[sp6r=underrated]

I think this is a fair point—i.e. that the #1 SRS team actually usually doesn’t win. But I’d note a couple things here:

1. The #1 SRS team usually doesn’t have anywhere near the 2024 Celtics’ SRS. And if you surveyed the teams that have had SRS that was as high or close to as high as the 2024 Celtics, you’ll find that most of them did actually win the title. For reference, every single team that had at least as high an SRS as the 2024 Celtics has won the title (and they all won it with ease too), and if we instead expand it out and look at 9+ SRS teams then it is 9 out of 14—and I note that one of the 5 that didn’t win lost to one of the 9 that did (i.e. the 1972 Bucks losing to the 1972 Lakers), and another one of the 5 had a major superstar out for the playoffs (i.e. Westbrook being injured in 2013). The point with the Celtics isn’t that they’ll win because they had the #1 SRS this season. It’s more about just how high their SRS was. It’s rarified air.

Yup, just to give details, since the merger 12 teams have had an SRS greater than 9. Descending order by SRS

96 Bulls: Won title (and the two after)
17 Warriors: Won Title (and 3 in 4, with the 4th being a g7 finals loss)
24 Celtics: TBD (winning playoff games by 11 points through 9 games!)
97 Bulls: Won Title
16 Warriors: Lost title (won in 15, 17 and 18)
16 Spurs: 2nd biggest disappointment in this list (loss to a 7 SRS club and outscored them in that series)
92 Bulls: Won title
15 Warriors: Won title
20 Bucks: Lost in ECSF (biggest bust by far)
08 Celtics: Won Title
13 Thunder: Lost in 2nd round (injury westbrook)
86 Celtics: Won title

7 of 11 won the title. And of those 7 they played a combined 3 elimination games which they won by an average of 22ppg.

The 4 losers:
16 Warriors: won titles in 3 of 4. Loss in G7 finals
2016 Spurs: 2 years removed from a title/3 years removed from a g7 Finals loss. Outscored OKC in series they lost
2013 Thunder: injury to 2nd best player
2020 Bucks: huge disappointment

Considering Boston a large favorite over the field is reasonable at this point. The majority of teams with their profile walked to a title and 3 of the 4 losers won titles in the nearby years.

telling how all people seem to be able to do with the Celtics is blandly say they are 10 SRS and therefore by rule should be favoured over the western conference representative

Team point differential is the best statistical tool for evaluating teams. And the data is clear they are the best team this year. And the data is clear they've made a huge leap from previous seasons.

The Spurs were a more serious contender the next year despite a lower SRS

This is bizarre claim.

These are all minority cases because not many have that type of SRS. But here is an easy point of distinction: none of those 9-SRS teams have a lead player as uninspiring as Tatum. Maybe you could argue the 2013 Thunder, but I also did not think they were a Finals team that year. Next best team on the list is the 1986 Bucks, which kind-of speaks for itself. Even going by secondary players, I guess I can argue 2016 Aldridge against <pick a Celtic>, but that team also did not go anywhere.

If you are watching the Celtics and think they legitimately stack up with most of those title teams, agree to disagree but guess we will see in a month. If you are just going by the SRS, I do not see the point.

Your post above indicates my point below. Celtics skepticism is entirely due to them not fitting the profile of an ATG Club (GOAT or best player in the league). My guess is we will get some Tatum revisionism from some and others will downgrade this club unless they win a couple more titles.

I don't think the 2024 Celtics get quite the credit they deserved because their profile doesn't fit the profile of an ATG team. Most ATG NBA teams have a player who is considered best in the NBA by at least many fans. Tatum is great but essentially no one believes he is the best NBA player

And given the trend in these types of SRS spikes, feels like a safe prediction for what they look like next year.

It is a safe pick because almost every team regressed from how the 2024 Celtics played. To play at this level you need complete lock-in to team play from every player, perfect health. You basically need everything to go right.

If they regress in 2025, which I think they will, will not reflect on 2024. If they keep this up they're a GOAT caliber squad that will deserve to have their name listed next to the other GOAT squads.

15-2 through the playoffs winning their playoff games by an average of 10+ after a RS that they had a 10+ MOV. Yup this is an ATG club folks.

[sp6r=underrated]

Yeah this is one of the best teams ever haters

Yup, at this point to deny this is an ATG club you have to admit you won't consider any club without a top 2 player in the league GOAT caliber. Because the data is overwhelming, and when I say overwhelming I mean "Lebron belongs in the HOF" overwhelming that this is an ATG club.

And I root against Boston clubs by default

[jalengreen]

Wonder what kinda contract Hauser can get in the future. Genuinely been a positive defender on top of that sweet jumper

[jalengreen]

I'm so conflicted because I'm rooting for Boston, but Dallas winning would be hilarious because of those victory lap comments above from when the Celtics were up 20 in the 4th q lmao

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm so conflicted because I'm rooting for Boston, but Dallas winning would be hilarious because of those victory lap comments above from when the Celtics were up 20 in the 4th q lmao

I stand by it. Celtics have been the best team by far in this series and playoffs. And if they played exactly the same but had a Lebron type player everyone would be talking about them in the context of GOAT clubs

[jalengreen]

I'm so conflicted because I'm rooting for Boston, but Dallas winning would be hilarious because of those victory lap comments above from when the Celtics were up 20 in the 4th q lmao

I stand by it. Celtics have been the best team by far in this series and playoffs. And if they played exactly the same but had a Lebron type player everyone would be talking about them in the context of GOAT clubs

Sure, just saying it objectively would've been funny asf lmao

[GSP]

Lukas defense is horrendous man. Hardenesque

[jalengreen]

Give jaylen brown his FMVP btw

[TheGOATRises007]

It's over

Too loaded

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm so conflicted because I'm rooting for Boston, but Dallas winning would be hilarious because of those victory lap comments above from when the Celtics were up 20 in the 4th q lmao

I stand by it. Celtics have been the best team by far in this series and playoffs. And if they played exactly the same but had a Lebron type player everyone would be talking about them in the context of GOAT clubs

Sure, just saying it objectively would've been funny asf lmao

very fair