2023-24 NBA Season Discussion
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sp6r=underrated wrote:How long is the drag between draft quality and league quality?
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 per draft class. This isn't a perfect stat I just used it because it is cumulative.Spoiler:
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 for draft classes over a 5 year span. 5 year span to show generational depthSpoiler:
The draft classes of the 80s were fairly strong while it was really weak in the early 90s. How long do you think it take for successive strong drafts to improve league quality? Same for weak draft classes.
This isn't about any specific player just interested for your opinion on how long it takes for strong/weak draft classes to impact league quality.
Players enter the league at around 20 years old and they reach their peak at around age 26 so the lag between draft classes and their impact on league quality is probably around 6 years
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The-Power wrote:tsherkin wrote:The-Power wrote:Tatum wasn't any less deserving than Brown. Same goes for Holiday. It was a team effort with those three standing out. In an ideal world, Tatum gets recognition for at least one of the two last series because as it currently stands, the awards suggest Brown's primacy and separation in the last two series when this does not reflect reality. Tatum was still their most important player in the aggregate. But I'm sure Tatum and the Celtics can live with the results and it may serve as motivation for Tatum and fuel him as it did Curry. In the end, Tatum's legacy has just started to be built.
Finals MVP has not reflected just "the focal player on the title team" in any kind of recent memory. And he was so bad at scoring that it was inevitable that he wasnt going to win it.
It's true that he was drawing and kicking well, rebounded well and stuff. He was useful and contributing, but he was also so brutal at scoring that it overwhelms that for the purpose of recognition.
As you say, I'm sure Tatum and Boston dont really care. They achieved the goal and won the title. But Tatum also clearly wasnt the best player in the series and there are MANY examples over the past quarter century of the focal guy not winning it just because he filled that role.
Certainly Tatum struggled to score for much of the series but I think it's been overblown in comparison to Brown.
Tatum: 22.2 PPG on 50.5% TS
Brown: 20.8 PPG on 53.5% TS
The scoring gap really isn't all that noteworthy. It's a couple bucks give or take in a series that was not close for the most part. So the question to me is who was more valuable in determining the dynamics of the game that led to the considerable difference between these two teams? And I still have to side with Tatum here as the person who was clearly the focus of the Mavs defense, who initiated most of the offense, and whose defensive versatility was key to Boston's scheme on that end (without taking away from Brown's laudable man-defense).
And even if you side with Brown here (fair enough), to say that Tatum “especially didn't deserve Finals MVP” goes much too far and I find it hard to back that kind of statement up when comparing him to his direct competition (rather than the average Finals MVP). But that's just my two cents.
I think when watching a series like this, some voters may have the perspective that what happened from G1-G3 is most important because that's when Boston built a 3-0 lead.
During that span:
- Jaylen Brown: 24.3 / 6.0 / 5.7 on on 63.1% TS%
- Jayson Tatum: 21.7 / 8.7 / 7.3 on 46.6% TS%
In the most crucial game of the series (Game 3, IMO), JB also possibly had his best game with 30/8/8 on 62.5% TS% behind a marvelous second half performance (great Tatum first half).
JB's offensive effectiveness certainly declined in G4 and G5, but I wonder how much voters really cared about that. It's why I said after G3 that a Mavs comeback to extend the series would probably be necessary for Tatum to win.
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jalengreen wrote:The-Power wrote:tsherkin wrote:
Finals MVP has not reflected just "the focal player on the title team" in any kind of recent memory. And he was so bad at scoring that it was inevitable that he wasnt going to win it.
It's true that he was drawing and kicking well, rebounded well and stuff. He was useful and contributing, but he was also so brutal at scoring that it overwhelms that for the purpose of recognition.
As you say, I'm sure Tatum and Boston dont really care. They achieved the goal and won the title. But Tatum also clearly wasnt the best player in the series and there are MANY examples over the past quarter century of the focal guy not winning it just because he filled that role.
Certainly Tatum struggled to score for much of the series but I think it's been overblown in comparison to Brown.
Tatum: 22.2 PPG on 50.5% TS
Brown: 20.8 PPG on 53.5% TS
The scoring gap really isn't all that noteworthy. It's a couple bucks give or take in a series that was not close for the most part. So the question to me is who was more valuable in determining the dynamics of the game that led to the considerable difference between these two teams? And I still have to side with Tatum here as the person who was clearly the focus of the Mavs defense, who initiated most of the offense, and whose defensive versatility was key to Boston's scheme on that end (without taking away from Brown's laudable man-defense).
And even if you side with Brown here (fair enough), to say that Tatum “especially didn't deserve Finals MVP” goes much too far and I find it hard to back that kind of statement up when comparing him to his direct competition (rather than the average Finals MVP). But that's just my two cents.
I think when watching a series like this, some voters may have the perspective that what happened from G1-G3 is most important because that's when Boston built a 3-0 lead.
During that span:
- Jaylen Brown: 24.3 / 6.0 / 5.7 on on 63.1% TS%
- Jayson Tatum: 21.7 / 8.7 / 7.3 on 46.6% TS%
In the most crucial game of the series (Game 3, IMO), JB also possibly had his best game with 30/8/8 on 62.5% TS% behind a marvelous second half performance (great Tatum first half).
JB's offensive effectiveness certainly declined in G4 and G5, but I wonder how much voters really cared about that. It's why I said after G3 that a Mavs comeback to extend the series would probably be necessary for Tatum to win.
Yeah, I specifically remember Zach Lowe saying this is why he voted for Durant in 2018. Steph was great in games 1 and 2, but in the pivotal game 3, he laid an egg while Durant put up 43 on .824 true shooting. Steph's superior game 4 performance didn't mean as much to him because the series was effectively over thanks to Durant.
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Overall a very impressive playoff run for Luka especially given that he wasn't 100%. Timberwolves series in particular was incredibly impressive
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Always cool to see a team get their first ring, and they'll be well-positioned to defend it next season
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While not the most dramatic playoffs I do like the Celtics overall arc starting with facing Lebron in Tatum's rookie year and then leading through 22 finals and blowing game 7 at home against Jimmy goat last year before breaking through, and the fact that Tatum and Brown have felt like they played together forever.
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jalengreen wrote:The-Power wrote:tsherkin wrote:
Finals MVP has not reflected just "the focal player on the title team" in any kind of recent memory. And he was so bad at scoring that it was inevitable that he wasnt going to win it.
It's true that he was drawing and kicking well, rebounded well and stuff. He was useful and contributing, but he was also so brutal at scoring that it overwhelms that for the purpose of recognition.
As you say, I'm sure Tatum and Boston dont really care. They achieved the goal and won the title. But Tatum also clearly wasnt the best player in the series and there are MANY examples over the past quarter century of the focal guy not winning it just because he filled that role.
Certainly Tatum struggled to score for much of the series but I think it's been overblown in comparison to Brown.
Tatum: 22.2 PPG on 50.5% TS
Brown: 20.8 PPG on 53.5% TS
The scoring gap really isn't all that noteworthy. It's a couple bucks give or take in a series that was not close for the most part. So the question to me is who was more valuable in determining the dynamics of the game that led to the considerable difference between these two teams? And I still have to side with Tatum here as the person who was clearly the focus of the Mavs defense, who initiated most of the offense, and whose defensive versatility was key to Boston's scheme on that end (without taking away from Brown's laudable man-defense).
And even if you side with Brown here (fair enough), to say that Tatum “especially didn't deserve Finals MVP” goes much too far and I find it hard to back that kind of statement up when comparing him to his direct competition (rather than the average Finals MVP). But that's just my two cents.
I think when watching a series like this, some voters may have the perspective that what happened from G1-G3 is most important because that's when Boston built a 3-0 lead.
During that span:
- Jaylen Brown: 24.3 / 6.0 / 5.7 on on 63.1% TS%
- Jayson Tatum: 21.7 / 8.7 / 7.3 on 46.6% TS%
In the most crucial game of the series (Game 3, IMO), JB also possibly had his best game with 30/8/8 on 62.5% TS% behind a marvelous second half performance (great Tatum first half).
JB's offensive effectiveness certainly declined in G4 and G5, but I wonder how much voters really cared about that. It's why I said after G3 that a Mavs comeback to extend the series would probably be necessary for Tatum to win.
Eh, I disagree on that. I'm open to the idea of not considering Game 4 too much but I have Game 5 as one of the most crucial ones in the series. Dallas came alive again and a loss yesterday would have increased the pressure drastically, so there was quite a bit at stake in that game. Game 3 may have sealed the deal in terms of historical precedent but I have Game 5 as a game on which there was more pressure pretty handily. And, of course, Tatum's offensive creation and defensive versatility advantage remains in place either way.
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Dr Positivity wrote:While not the most dramatic playoffs I do like the Celtics overall arc starting with facing Lebron in Tatum's rookie year and then leading through 22 finals and blowing game 7 at home against Jimmy goat last year before breaking through, and the fact that Tatum and Brown have felt like they played together forever.
Plus everybody questioning whether they needed to be broken up
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The-Power wrote:jalengreen wrote:The-Power wrote:Certainly Tatum struggled to score for much of the series but I think it's been overblown in comparison to Brown.
Tatum: 22.2 PPG on 50.5% TS
Brown: 20.8 PPG on 53.5% TS
The scoring gap really isn't all that noteworthy. It's a couple bucks give or take in a series that was not close for the most part. So the question to me is who was more valuable in determining the dynamics of the game that led to the considerable difference between these two teams? And I still have to side with Tatum here as the person who was clearly the focus of the Mavs defense, who initiated most of the offense, and whose defensive versatility was key to Boston's scheme on that end (without taking away from Brown's laudable man-defense).
And even if you side with Brown here (fair enough), to say that Tatum “especially didn't deserve Finals MVP” goes much too far and I find it hard to back that kind of statement up when comparing him to his direct competition (rather than the average Finals MVP). But that's just my two cents.
I think when watching a series like this, some voters may have the perspective that what happened from G1-G3 is most important because that's when Boston built a 3-0 lead.
During that span:
- Jaylen Brown: 24.3 / 6.0 / 5.7 on on 63.1% TS%
- Jayson Tatum: 21.7 / 8.7 / 7.3 on 46.6% TS%
In the most crucial game of the series (Game 3, IMO), JB also possibly had his best game with 30/8/8 on 62.5% TS% behind a marvelous second half performance (great Tatum first half).
JB's offensive effectiveness certainly declined in G4 and G5, but I wonder how much voters really cared about that. It's why I said after G3 that a Mavs comeback to extend the series would probably be necessary for Tatum to win.
Eh, I disagree on that. I'm open to the idea of not considering Game 4 too much but I have Game 5 as one of the most crucial ones in the series. Dallas came alive again and a loss yesterday would have increased the pressure drastically, so there was quite a bit at stake in that game. Game 3 may have sealed the deal in terms of historical precedent but I have Game 5 as a game on which there was more pressure pretty handily. And, of course, Tatum's offensive creation and defensive versatility advantage remains in place either way.
To be clear, you disagree on what? That Game 3 was the most crucial of the series? Or that voters might've had the perspective that I described?
Even in Game 5, I don’t think there was a whole lot of pressure entering the 4th quarter of Game 5 with the Celtics up 19 pts and holding onto that lead throughout. It certainly felt like a done series (not sure what the live series odds were like at that point, but probably very good for Boston) and while it was cool that Tatum scored 11 in that final quarter to close the series, I definitely think the outcome of the voting suggests that voters did not take that production at face value. Appropriately so, if you ask me. Contrast that with Game 3 that came down to the wire and it was JB who made the play of the series when the pressure was arguably at its peak. https://streamable.com/n4z6j3
Yes, the offensive creation and defensive versatility argument has merit even when Tatum struggled to score efficiently earlier in the series. My point was that when you take an isolated look at scoring production across the series, it needs to be noted that JB was the far more productive scorer through Games 1-3 when a 3-0 lead was built. Something that’s not seen by just the overall series PPG and TS%. How much we want to weight that is a fair question, but it’s a part of what happened. Combine that with being Luka's primary defender and it makes for a compelling case.
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I think if you looked at Jaylen Brown’s and Jayson Tatum’s stats for the series, you’d probably come away thinking that Tatum was maybe very slightly better overall. But Brown did better in the more important moments than Tatum did. So I think it was fair to have Brown over Tatum, though Tatum could’ve been justified too given that he got more of the defensive attention. All that said, I think Holiday was probably actually the Finals MVP anyways. In the end, it doesn’t really matter much because we all understand that no one on the Celtics took over the series individually—it was a team effort.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Average EPM in the 2024 Finals:
Tatum: +0.8
Brown: +3.9
Holiday: +1.9
White: +4.8
Horford:+1.0
Kyrie: +0.9
Luka: +3.8
Washington: -0.7
DJJ: -1.6
Lively: -0.6
You can make a good case that Derrick White deserved finals MVP this year which is pretty extraordinary (and he actually lead the Celtics in playoff EPM WAR and playoff BPM WAR)
Tatum: +0.8
Brown: +3.9
Holiday: +1.9
White: +4.8
Horford:+1.0
Kyrie: +0.9
Luka: +3.8
Washington: -0.7
DJJ: -1.6
Lively: -0.6
You can make a good case that Derrick White deserved finals MVP this year which is pretty extraordinary (and he actually lead the Celtics in playoff EPM WAR and playoff BPM WAR)
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I think Tatum probably deserved Finals MVP over him.. but like Curry in 2015 and Duncan in 2007, "takes the most pressure" wasn't taken into account.
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Special_Puppy wrote:sp6r=underrated wrote:How long is the drag between draft quality and league quality?
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 per draft class. This isn't a perfect stat I just used it because it is cumulative.Spoiler:
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 for draft classes over a 5 year span. 5 year span to show generational depthSpoiler:
The draft classes of the 80s were fairly strong while it was really weak in the early 90s. How long do you think it take for successive strong drafts to improve league quality? Same for weak draft classes.
This isn't about any specific player just interested for your opinion on how long it takes for strong/weak draft classes to impact league quality.
Players enter the league at around 20 years old and they reach their peak at around age 26 so the lag between draft classes and their impact on league quality is probably around 6 years
What stood out for me was the real dip in draft class quality in the 90-93 which I don't really understand. Basketball's popularity was steadily improving throughout the 70s/80s and salaries in the NBA had closed in on NFL/MLB. Even when I set a lower threshold of 20 the drop-off is appreciable.
This stat isn't perfect but the cumulative nature of it makes it a decent proxy.
1990-93
Spoiler:
1984- 1987
Spoiler:
1996-1999
Spoiler:
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Is Tatum the Karl Malone of his position? But in an alt universe where Jazz didn't play MJ.
Malone was not the best scorer or flashiest player of his generation, but he put up his points consistently, and he lacked weaknesses in that he was good defender, passer and fit well spacing wise. It's difficult to find another established superstar who was as well rounded without being more dynamic in one area, for example West is well rounded, but is arguably a more dynamic scorer than either, same for KG's defense, and then players like Billups, were not considered top 5 MVP type of superstars. Like Malone, if Tatum stays healthy and produces into his mid 30s he may end up with a high total points rank just by pounding out 27ppg seasons with less than <10 games missed.
Malone was not the best scorer or flashiest player of his generation, but he put up his points consistently, and he lacked weaknesses in that he was good defender, passer and fit well spacing wise. It's difficult to find another established superstar who was as well rounded without being more dynamic in one area, for example West is well rounded, but is arguably a more dynamic scorer than either, same for KG's defense, and then players like Billups, were not considered top 5 MVP type of superstars. Like Malone, if Tatum stays healthy and produces into his mid 30s he may end up with a high total points rank just by pounding out 27ppg seasons with less than <10 games missed.
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sp6r=underrated wrote:Special_Puppy wrote:sp6r=underrated wrote:How long is the drag between draft quality and league quality?
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 per draft class. This isn't a perfect stat I just used it because it is cumulative.Spoiler:
The table below shows the number of players with a career VORP greater than 30 for draft classes over a 5 year span. 5 year span to show generational depthSpoiler:
The draft classes of the 80s were fairly strong while it was really weak in the early 90s. How long do you think it take for successive strong drafts to improve league quality? Same for weak draft classes.
This isn't about any specific player just interested for your opinion on how long it takes for strong/weak draft classes to impact league quality.
Players enter the league at around 20 years old and they reach their peak at around age 26 so the lag between draft classes and their impact on league quality is probably around 6 years
What stood out for me was the real dip in draft class quality in the 90-93 which I don't really understand. Basketball's popularity was steadily improving throughout the 70s/80s and salaries in the NBA had closed in on NFL/MLB. Even when I set a lower threshold of 20 the drop-off is appreciable.
This stat isn't perfect but the cumulative nature of it makes it a decent proxy.
1990-93Spoiler:
1984- 1987Spoiler:
1996-1999Spoiler:
I think the answer here is probably just that the very best NBA players ever are such profoundly rare talents that it’s just pretty random how many you get in a certain timeframe, even when the overall talent of the league in general is going up.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Dr Positivity wrote:Is Tatum the Karl Malone of his position? But in an alt universe where Jazz didn't play MJ.
Jazz probably win against MJ in alt universes.
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Colbinii wrote:Dr Positivity wrote:Is Tatum the Karl Malone of his position? But in an alt universe where Jazz didn't play MJ.
Jazz probably win against MJ in alt universes.
I would be very surprised if Utah didn't win a title if you simulated 97-99 twenty times.
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Dr Positivity wrote:Is Tatum the Karl Malone of his position? But in an alt universe where Jazz didn't play MJ.
Malone was not the best scorer or flashiest player of his generation, but he put up his points consistently, and he lacked weaknesses in that he was good defender, passer and fit well spacing wise. It's difficult to find another established superstar who was as well rounded without being more dynamic in one area, for example West is well rounded, but is arguably a more dynamic scorer than either, same for KG's defense, and then players like Billups, were not considered top 5 MVP type of superstars. Like Malone, if Tatum stays healthy and produces into his mid 30s he may end up with a high total points rank just by pounding out 27ppg seasons with less than <10 games missed.
If Malone had 3/4 of the talent on his team that Tatum has on his, he'd be in the goat debate because of winning a few championships.
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migya wrote:Dr Positivity wrote:Is Tatum the Karl Malone of his position? But in an alt universe where Jazz didn't play MJ.
Malone was not the best scorer or flashiest player of his generation, but he put up his points consistently, and he lacked weaknesses in that he was good defender, passer and fit well spacing wise. It's difficult to find another established superstar who was as well rounded without being more dynamic in one area, for example West is well rounded, but is arguably a more dynamic scorer than either, same for KG's defense, and then players like Billups, were not considered top 5 MVP type of superstars. Like Malone, if Tatum stays healthy and produces into his mid 30s he may end up with a high total points rank just by pounding out 27ppg seasons with less than <10 games missed.
If Malone had 3/4 of the talent on his team that Tatum has on his, he'd be in the goat debate because of winning a few championships.
Yeah in a much weaker era he definitely would have.