2010-11 POY Voting Thread - Congrats Dirk Nowitzki!

[Dr Positivity]

Well to that point. To me they were underrated in the regular season this year cause the minutes played dropped their stats. Chandler and Marion would've got a lot more deserved talk this regular season if they actually put up 13, 12, 1.5, 1.5 and 16 and 9 respectively that they averaged per 36. That is arguably the 2nd best C in the league numbers and top 6-8 SF numbers with the former's efficiency and latter's defense. But both played 28mpg due to depth, so 10 and 9 and 12 and 7 won't get the headlines. I think Chandler and Marion got the credit they deserved in the end. If Dirk played with Noah and Gerald Wallace this year, those two guys would've gotten a lot of hype. To me Chandler and Marion are better than Noah and Wallace, they just played less minutes

As for Terry. He'll get credit for being a clutch playoff guy. But he was the 2nd most important scorer on a title team and had massive moments, including carrying them when they needed it most with Dirk's first half of G6. I also thought he shredded the Heat with passing all series. 20ppg .60 TS% and 20 PER in the playoffs overall. Terry was great

[mysticbb]

Well to that point. To me they were underrated in the regular season this year cause the minutes played dropped their stats. Chandler and Marion would've got a lot more deserved talk this regular season if they actually put up 13, 12, 1.5, 1.5 and 16 and 9 respectively that they averaged per 36. That is arguably the 2nd best C in the league numbers and top 6-8 SF numbers with the former's efficiency and latter's defense. But both played 28mpg due to depth, so 10 and 9 and 12 and 7 won't get the headlines.

That is wrong. Chandler played less minutes due to foul trouble, he would have been either less effective or even not playing when he had to play more minutes with foul trouble. In games below his season average in minutes he averaged more fouls and was at 5.6 fouls per 36 minutes. He also was weaker in those games. Assuming that he would become better with more playing time in those game is not reasonable.
Marion played heavily inconsistent during the regular season. Even after Butler went down with that injury Marion didn't get more playing time. He became more consistent at the end of the season, which gave him more playing time. When he didn't play well he got less minutes.

In both cases, if they had to play constant 36 minutes per game, the numbers for both players would have been looked worse. That is not a case like Ginobili here, who proved that he can consistently play more minutes and still perform at his level.

I think Chandler and Marion got the credit they deserved in the end. If Dirk played with Noah and Gerald Wallace this year, those two guys would've gotten a lot of hype. To me Chandler and Marion are better than Noah and Wallace, they just played less minutes.

As I said "just played less minutes" is inaccurate. They played less minutes for a reason, and the reason is their own performance level, not depth. And Chandler is better than Noah, I agree with that. Noah gets overrated due to his hustle style, but his overall impact is much lower than people suspect. BUT Gerald Wallace is better than Marion, he can not only sustain his performance level in more minutes, but plays also more consistent and better overall.

As for Terry. He'll get credit for being a clutch playoff guy. But he was the 2nd most important scorer on a title team and had massive moments, including carrying them when they needed it most with Dirk's first half of G6. I also thought he shredded the Heat with passing all series. 20ppg .60 TS% and 20 PER in the playoffs overall. Terry was great

Terry was less clutch in the playoffs than in the regular season, he scored less points per minutes on a lower scoring efficiency in clutch minutes. Especially his eFG% went down from .572 in the regular season to .447 in the playoffs. Maybe you missed the OKC series or the first 3 games of the finals, Terry also had two rather bad games in the series against Portland.
The good thing about Terry was his increased overall scoring efficiency in non-clutch minutes. He also had less turnovers. Don't let the boxscore numbers fool you, in half of those playoff games it was still the Terry who was not close to being a consistent 2nd option, in the rest of the games he just played better than usual in average.

[mysticbb]

That's another chicken/egg thing, because if the Mavs were to repeat, those players would certainly and suddenly get all the name recognition and then some. Hell, even next December (if there's a season, knock on wood) these same players will be seen as "key championship pieces", "tough-minded vets" who can "get the job done of the biggest stage" and whatnot. Whereas two weeks ago they were "unproven", "perpetual also-rans", etc.

Next December? It already started. If I'm reading it correct, there are some people on the Mavericks board who rather keep Chandler than making a play for Dwight Howard. Seriously, they rather want Chandler than Dwight Howard, that is insane.

This Mavericks team didn't play any different overall than in those games with a healthy Nowitzki during the regular season. Nowitzki got more minutes in the playoffs, which offset the bad backup situation. Terry had 80% of his playing time with Nowitzki in the playoffs, instead of 60% in the regular season. And Terry for all his minutes was a 59 TS% guy with Nowitzki on the court and a 51 TS% scorer without him (in the playoffs it was 63 to 55, similar difference as overall). Also Kidd scored more efficiently, made his 3pt shots, and again his playing time with Nowitzki increased from 60% in the regular season to 80% in the playoffs. Kidd was a 54 TS% player with Nowitzki and a 44 TS% player without him (in the playoffs it was 60 vs. 40!).
In comparison, Nowitzki scored on 60TS% with and without Kidd, he had 62 TS% with Terry and 58 TS% without him. Thus we can see a positive effect by Terry, but not by Kidd for Nowitzi.

That is the reason for the championship of the Mavericks, Nowitzki's increased minutes and his slightly better performance level, which led to more playing time with Nowitzki for several players.

[penbeast0]

I didn't participate in the thread except to post my top 5 when it was done because I didn't want to prejudge -- if you need an extra Dirk vote, my top 5 are:

1. Dirk
2. Dwight Howard
3. LeBron
4. Derrick Rose
5. Dwyane Wade

with apologies to San Antonio and Boston . . .

[drza]

It was in response to drza (and a number of other allusions) to Dirk's Finals. I do feel like people are incredibly jazzed up over his brilliant late-game performances or something, whereas I would say the Finals was easily his worst series of the playoffs. Just for some perspective, he averaged 28.4 on 64% TS in the first 3 rounds. At that point in the playoffs, no one had ever done what he was doing: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

The point about shooting was to emphasize that. His 53.7% TS is incredibly low for him, and it came from his 52-125 FGs. It had nothing to do with James, and I note that he shot a high-volume of attempts, which makes accuracy more important. (If you score 80 points and use all 85 of your team's possessions, that's probably not very good.) He facilitates, he spaces, he d rebounds, but those aren't really strengths (outside of spacing). His strength is volume scoring at high accuracy, and this just wasn't a great series for him in that regard.

For me specifically, when I say "the Finals happened" I'm not referencing Dirk only. As far as these rankings go, the Finals were just as much about what I didn't see from LeBron as what I did see from Dirk. As I alluded to in the discussion thread, I don't see this postseason performance from Dirk as a singular, historical run. In the last 8 years (where we have +/- data to reference) there have been a handful of other postseason performances from individuals on championship team with impacts to rival what Dirk did, and that's not even counting the performances from players that didn't go on to win the championship. That said, there have also been several seasons where the champs didn't have any player that had the postseason impact of Dirk, either. It was a very good run, if not as earth-shattering as Stuart Scott and some of the other talking heads made it out to be in the immediate aftermath.

But looking only at 1 particular type of box score stat has always been a bit weak to me, especially in the postseason, when match-ups can cause adjustments in playing style. If Dirk had shot 41% and not been impacting the game, that would be one thing. But without even looking at numbers, from watching the action it was clear that the Heat were having to change the way they play to try to stop Dirk, which opened up the game for others. Dirk scoring 25+ points on greater than 53% TS while also drawing the attention of the Heat defense, allowing his teammates to get better looks than they otherwise would have...to me, he did his job and did it on a high level. I don't give him ALL of the credit because, again as I pointed out in the discussion thread, his cast gave more support en masse than they are credited for by-name/box score recognition. But I do give him credit for a very strong individual performance in the postseason, which came on top of a very strong individual performance in the regular season, and was capped off by a Finals performance where he absolutely did his job to get his team the ring, all of which are strongly supported by the available +/- data.

Now, as I said, a couple of weeks ago I had both LeBron and Dwight in front of Dirk. I think that Dirk did enough in capping his postseason run to edge ahead of Dwight, but he wouldn't have jumped LeBron had LeBron played anything like the way he did through the rest of the season. Even if LeBron had played somewhat similar to his potential and the Heat lost, I'd still have likely kept him over Dirk. Even as it was it was a tough decision. But as yet I have not seen a satisfactory explanation for what would cause LeBron to completely change the way he played in a negative way on the biggest stage like he did. It'd be one thing if he was himself but just off. Not great, but would make sense to me. But the passiveness, the lack of defensive impact, the (seeming) lack of confidence and assertiveness. Those aren't minor issues, and the reasons given thus far don't move me. He's 26 years old, so I'm not really that sympathetic for the "dead legs" argument. He and Wade had bumped heads in roles during the regular season, but had found a working balance by the end of the regular season that worked and seemed even enhanced through the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, so I'm not really buying that either. His performance was so puzzling that people started postulating more off-court drama, from Stephen A. Smith saying he didn't know what had happened but he was sure that something must have on down to the internet rumor about Rashard Lewis and his girlfriend that gained enough traction that Lewis had to respond. I, personally, have no idea what happened. But I do know that LeBron played surprisingly poorly, in a completely different style, and I haven't yet seen a reasonable explanation for why. In some years that would have still been enough for him to get my #1 vote, but in this case there was another candidate who was strong from start to finish and was just enough to knock James into second. It happens. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if LeBron is back in the penthouse again next year.

[An Unbiased Fan]

This has been the toughest vote for me, since 2005.

1) Dirk - (Finals MVP, All-NBA 2nd-team, 6th in MVP)

At the beginning of the playoffs, I had Dirk in my Top 10, BUT not my top 5. However, his performance in the playoffs, and the teams he had to go through catapulted him to a slim victory. In the big games, and the big moments, Dirk outshined everyone else. To me, POY is the guy who played the best that season, and Dirk certainly played the best when it mattered. The intangibles & leadership he gave to Dallas, is why he edges out Dwight.

2) Dwight - (All-NBA 1st, All-D 1st, DPOY, #2 in MVP)

Truly, it was hard not putting Dwight in 1st. He had the best efficieny differentials of both the regular season & playoffs. He was the DPOY and had a strong case for MVP.

The major knock on Dwight though, is his lack of leadership. This is where Dirk seperates himself from Howard.

3) Durant - (All-NBA 1st, 5th in mVP)

Last year he was overrated, and strangley this yearly, underrated. He's the league's best scorer, and did so on 58.9 TS%. Led OKC to the WCFs, and did so with Westbrook's erratic postseason play.

4) Rose - (All-NBA 1st, MVP)

Normally I would put a MVP higher, but Rose got the award more for circumstances, than being the best player. Even still, it's hard to ignore how far he led a Bulls team that battled injuries and a whole new system. The major knock on DRose is his efficiency, especially in the postseason. That said, his eff/dif was still great in both the RS & PS.

5) Lebron - (All-NBA 1st, All-D 1st, 3rd in MVP)

Solid year for Lebron. He put up top notch all-around numbers like usually, and along with Wade & Bosh, the Heat made the Finals.

However....Lebron is kind of the oppostie of Dirk this season. Statwise, Lebron trumps Dirk in most ways, except of course, in clutch. It's hard to ignore how often Lebron stumbled in crunchtime during the regular season, it was really astounding, and cost the Heat the #1 seed. In the Finals, this was magnified even more, and Lebron HIMSELF, cost the Heat a title. If he had even played average, Miami would have won in 4 or 5. In the big moments, Lebron dissapeared.


Honorable Mention:

Kobe - (All-NBA 1st, All-D 1st, 4th in MVP) great regular season, lackluster playoffs. I think he never fully recover from the ankle injury in the 1st round.

Wade - (All-NBA 2nd, 7th in MVP) very good regular season, and up & down playoffs. Though his Finals for the first 4 games was tremendous. I think he just ran out of gas after carrying around Lebron for 4 games.

Zach - Most underrated player this year. Arguably the best PF in the NBA before Dirk went nuclear in the playoffs. He was the main reason Memphis even made the playoffs, and why they upset the #1 Spurs.

[Gongxi]

If you were any more transparent, you'd disassociate.

[An Unbiased Fan]

:lol: If you were any more transparent, you'd disassociate.

Please explain.

[Sedale Threatt]

There are excellent reasons not to vote LeBron No. 1. I don't see any to put him all the way down at five.

[mopper8]

There is only one ballot thus far with Lebron lower than third. There is only one ballot thus far with Wade not even included in the top-5. It is, coincidentally, the same ballot.

[An Unbiased Fan]

There's are excellent reasons not to vote LeBron No. 1. I don't see any to put him all the way down at five.

I had Lebron at around #3 going into the playoffs, and his Finals performance dropped him to #5. i coudln't put Lebron over the other guys on my list after that performance. He had the worst dropoff in Finals history, and it's very likely Miami wins that series going away if he even plays average.

This is not new, Dirk had 10 votes in the #4-5 range during 2007, because of his playoff flameout, despite winning MVP and leading Dallas to 67 wins. Kobe was left of 2 ballots, and 15 of his 20 votes landed in the #4-5 range back in 2004.

In fact, you yourself said this.

If I can punish Dirk severely for his first-round flame out, then it's only fair that I apply the same standards here to Kobe for putting his team in such a bad spot, then bombing epically with the championship at stake.

I really don't see Lebron ahead of Dirk who outshined him in the FInals, or Dwight who was simply the better player in both the regular season & playoffs. Nor do i see him over Durant or Rose whom had comparitive play, and more impact on their teams.

[Gongxi]

We know: you start with a conclusion and then find ways to justify it. It's amusing, and I think everyone knows you're just trolling, so no harm, no foul.

[An Unbiased Fan]

There is only one ballot thus far with Lebron lower than third. There is only one ballot thus far with Wade not even included in the top-5. It is, coincidentally, the same ballot.

I said on the 1st page of the POY 2011 thread, that guys like Wade & Zach weren't likely to crack my Top 5. I don't see how Wade is above these guys when he deffered to Lebron most of the time in key moments during the RS.

Again, are we voting on best NBA talents, OR who played the best & had the biggest impact that season. I mean really, what case does Wade have over Rose this season??? Rose led the Bulls to the best record with multiple injuries throughout the year to his cast. Statwise they're are comparable, and Rose was MVP, while Wade was 7th. Rose was All-NBA 1st, while Wade was All-NBA 2nd. What's Wade's case over Dwight? Or over Dirk?, or over Durant?

And Lebron, while a great talent, was mediocre in his team play. The first half of the year he resisted playing off the ball, and the Heat in general looked out of sync. They did however, come on in the 2nd half/post all-star break, and Lebron improved in this regard throughout the year though. Unfortunately for Miami, Lebron just disappeared in the Finals, on the biggest stage when his team needed him the most.

[An Unbiased Fan]

We know: you start with a conclusion and then find ways to justify it. It's amusing, and I think everyone knows you're just trolling, so no harm, no foul.

Your act is really tired. I asked you a direct question to explain where my list is wrong , and like usual, you deflect the question with an insult.

What's wrong with my list, and give specifics. What "conclusion" did I start with? I posted on the first page in the POY thread, and laid out my thoughts back then. When Kobe flamed out, I knocked him from my Top 5, when Dirk went beast-mode, I elevated him. When Zach was going crazy, i was giving him props too.

Where have I been inconsistent?

[cool007]

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Dwight Howard
3. Lebron James
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Derrick Rose

HM: Durant, Paul

Same as mine.

1 - Dirk
2 - Dwight
3 - LeBron
4 - D-Wade
5 - D-Rose

[Gongxi]

You didn't ask a question at all. The responses from Sedale and mopper pretty much covered it. What I don't understand is why someone joking wouldn't appreciate getting laughs. Like that time you said you could beat Jordan one-on-one: we appreciate you!

Just need to make sure new folks aren't taking you seriously.

[Sedale Threatt]

I had Lebron at around #3 going into the playoffs, and his Finals performance dropped him to #5. i coudln't put Lebron over the other guys on my list after that performance. He had the worst dropoff in Finals history, and it's very likely Miami wins that series going away if he even plays average.

There is a pretty significant difference between winning the MVP, and getting knocked out in the first round, and performing at an outstanding level up through the Finals, including a great series against the Bulls while Rose was miserable. (Yet Rose goes unscathed.)

And Kobe in 04, not only did he have a huge drop-off from the previous season, it was augmented by his self-inflicted-wound of an offseason, followed up by a Finals that might have been even worse than LeBron. I don't have any problem with him being left off ballots.

[An Unbiased Fan]

You didn't ask a question at all. The responses from Sedale and mopper pretty much covered it. What I don't understand is why someone joking wouldn't appreciate getting laughs. Like that time you said you could beat Jordan one-on-one: we appreciate you!

Just need to make sure new folks aren't taking you seriously.

Again, what specifically is wrong with my list. I know you like being my personal stalker and all, but you haven't explained what your beef is. Instead, as usual, you simply deflect with an insult.

[An Unbiased Fan]

I had Lebron at around #3 going into the playoffs, and his Finals performance dropped him to #5. i coudln't put Lebron over the other guys on my list after that performance. He had the worst dropoff in Finals history, and it's very likely Miami wins that series going away if he even plays average.

There is a pretty significant difference between winning the MVP, and getting knocked out in the first round, and performing at an outstanding level up through the Finals, including a great series against the Bulls while Rose was miserable. (Yet Rose goes unscathed.)

And Kobe in 04, not only did he have a huge drop-off from the previous season, it was augmented by his self-inflicted-wound of an offseason, followed up by a Finals that might have been even worse than LeBron. I don't have any problem with him being left off ballots.

Here was my thought process throughout the playoffs...

My Top 5 going into the playoffs was

1) Dwight
2) Rose
3) LBJ
4) Kobe
5) Durant/Dirk

Early on, Kobe dropped off the list due to his subpar play in the early rounds. This left me with a solid 5. Zach actually was creeping on the list, and was in the mix before the WCF. Dwight dropped some after his 1st round lost, however, he had a 20+ eff/diff, and really played great in a loss. Wade didn't impress me in the 1st round, but he joined the mix after the Boston series.

So by the WCF/ECFs, Rose/LBJ/Wade/Durant/Dirk were all still playing. Wade's performance against Chicago dropped him back out of my Top 5. Conversely, Lebron raised his stock greatly. Durant didn't really move up or down based on his play in the WCF. While Dirk jumped near the top. Rose fell down a slot into basically a tie with Lebron.

In the Finals, Dirk grabbed the #1 slot, and Lebron dropped quite a bit due to his Finals play. Wade got back into the mix, but it was hard to justify him over the other 5 guys for the overall year.

It's really that simple. I don't see what's controversial about my list.

[Doctor MJ]

I really don't see Lebron ahead of Dirk who outshined him in the FInals, or Dwight who was simply the better player in both the regular season & playoffs. Nor do i see him over Durant or Rose whom had comparitive play, and more impact on their teams.

Where you really lose me is in the comparison vs Rose. I mean, we just say their two teams play each other with Wade looking extremely tired, and James just dominated. He literally guarded Rose at time and did so with great effectiveness. I didn't think anyone would still have Rose ahead of James after that.