#6 comes down to 4 guys for me, Bird, Kobe, Shaq, and Duncan. This is a long post, but with these players, there's a lot to cover.
OFFENSE:I decided to do a deeper analysis of the 4, since most of the usual arguments have been made a million times on the PC Board.
Below are the offensive numbers of the 4 as starters. PTS% & AST% are self-explanatory. ORTG+/- is what their team's offense was rated relative to the league average.
Code: Select all
Bird:
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1980 25.2% 18.5% +3.89%
1981 23.6% 20.4% +2.75%
1982 26.0% 22.5% +2.71%
1983 27.0% 22.4% +2.10%
1984 27.4% 26.2% +3.07%
1985 30.4% 25.7% +4.54%
1986 28.8% 26.3% +4.29%
1987 29.6% 28.6% +4.80%
1988 32.6% 25.7% +6.85%
1990 27.0% 28.9% +3.61%
1991 22.1% 25.9% +4.36%
Code: Select all
Kobe:
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1999 25.6% 17.5% +5.28%
2000 28.2% 22.4% +3.07%
2001 33.5% 23.0% +5.24%
2002 31.4% 25.9% +4.69%
2003 35.0% 27.2% +3.47%
2004 31.4% 24.4% +2.53%
2005 33.1% 28.5% +1.89%
2006 42.1% 24.1% +2.07%
2007 36.6% 25.5% +1.97%
2008 32.3% 23.9% +5.12%
2009 33.5% 23.8% +4.16%
2010 33.0% 23.8% +1.12%
2011 35.6% 26.7% +3.54%
Code: Select all
Shaq:
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1993 28.3% 8.5% -0.46%
1994 33.6% 11.0% +4.23%
1995 34.7% 13.3% +6.28%
1996 34.1% 15.9% +4.93%
1997 33.5% 17.3% +1.50%
1998 35.8% 13.5% +6.57%
1999 36.8% 14.4% +5.28%
2000 35.5% 19.3% +3.07%
2001 33.6% 18.8% +5.24%
2002 35.8% 16.4% +4.69%
2003 35.3% 16.2% +3.47%
2004 28.8% 14.8% +2.53%
2005 32.5% 15.7% +3.86%
2006 31.5% 12.4% +2.35%
2007 31.1% 14.3% -2.07%
Code: Select all
Duncan:
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1998 28.2% 13.7% -1.14%
1999 28.7% 12.1% +1.76%
2000 30.1% 15.5% +0.86%
2001 28.8% 15.3% +3.50%
2002 31.4% 18.3% +1.91%
2003 29.9% 19.5% +3.47%
2004 32.1% 17.4% +1.93%
2005 30.6% 16.1% +1.32%
2006 27.0% 16.5% +0.75%
2007 28.7% 18.9% +2.54%
2008 28.7% 15.7% -0.28%
2009 28.7% 19.3% +0.18%
2010 27.2% 17.8% +3.16%
2011 22.1% 15.7% +4.29%
1) Kobe & Bird
The offensive numbers of the two are quite compelling. Kobe is the superior volume scorer by good margin with 11 straight 31%+ PTS% seasons. As a scoring workhorse, he's up there with Wilt, MJ, and Shaq. What's also interesting is that he put up 12 straight 22%+ AST% seasons. So Kobe was not only scoring all an all-time rate, he was facilitating at an elite level too. In fact, he's equal in AST% to Bird.
Bird's offensive workload was less than Bryant's, but he did lead the most consistent Team ORtg+/- of the group. Offensive support obviously plays a role in that number, but still, I will put Bird up there with Kobe.
3) Shaq, to no one's surprise, was the most dominant scoring workhorse of the group. He had 10 33%+ PTS% seasons. His AST% was also very good for a bigman, during his prime. I have him 3rd, but he's not far behind at all.
4) Duncan is the weakest of the group, but still a great offensive player. His PTS% is on par, if not slighty better than Bird's. He's not the scoring anchor that Shaq or Bryant were though.
Notes:
-What's interesting to find is that even from 02-03'(where many claim he had a crap cast and had no 2nd option), TD only put up 31.45 & 29.4% PTS numbers. This kinda flies in the face of those who claim he carried them by himself offensively.
-Even when Shaq & Kobe played together, they were both carrying more of a scoring load than either Bird or Duncan. In 2000, with Shaq putting 35.5%, Kobe was still at 28.2%, which is the around average for both Bird & TD. From 01-03, both are 31.0%+. What an amzing duo.
-The Celtics actually posted a 110.8 ORtg WITHOUT Bird for 76 games. That's +2.78, and not a huge dropoff.
Defense:Really, this is actually quite easy to parse out.
1) Duncan. Top 3 defenses nearly every year. 10 All-Defense 1st teams. Need I say more? He's a Top 3 defender every in my book, and clearly the best of the group.
2) Kobe. You can call claim his defense of the last 4 years is overrated(I would strongly disagree though), but He would still have 5 more All-Defense 1st teams than Shaq & Bird combined. He one of the best defensive wings of his era, if not the best. Since 99', he's also been LA's best defender every year, which says a,lot considering his massive role as scorer/facilitator.
3) Shaq. In his prime, In his 2 peak years, Shaq was a borderlie elite defender. Not on the elvel of a Zo or Mutumbo, but still a defensive presence in the paint. As a bigman though, it's a stain on his record that he never became a great defensive anchor like TD did, or even like Howard is.
4) Bird was a good defender early in his career. Why he stopped playing at the start of his prime is a mystery. Perhaps it was his increased offensive workload, but whatever the reason, Bird went from a good defender...to a subpar defender.
Peak:Much has been made of 'peak" years. I never really get a straight answer as to how we judge peak years. So here are the 4 player's best 5 year stretch, and what they did in it.
Bird 84-88'
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1984 27.4% 26.2% +3.07%
1985 30.4% 25.7% +4.54%
1986 28.8% 26.3% +4.29%
1987 29.6% 28.6% +4.80%
1988 32.6% 25.7% +6.85%
5 All-NBA 1st teams
1 All-Defense 2nd team
3.833 MVP Shares
3 MVPs
2 rings
2 Finals MVPs
Kobe 06'-10'
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
2006 42.1% 24.1% +2.07%
2007 36.6% 25.5% +1.97%
2008 32.3% 23.9% +5.12%
2009 33.5% 23.8% +4.16%
2010 33.0% 23.8% +1.12%
5 All-NBA 1st teams
5 All-Defense 1st teams
2.731 MVP Shares
1 MVP
2 rings
2 Finals MVPs
Shaq 98-02'
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
1998 35.8% 13.5% +6.57%
1999 36.8% 14.4% +5.28%
2000 35.5% 19.3% +3.07%
2001 33.6% 18.8% +5.24%
2002 35.8% 16.4% +4.69%
4 All-NBA 1st teams / 1 All-NBA 2nd team
2 All-Defense 2nd teams
2.359 MVP shares
1 MVP
3 rings
3 Finals MVPs
Duncan 01-05'
PTS% AST% ORTG +/-
2001 28.8% 15.3% +3.50%
2002 31.4% 18.3% +1.91%
2003 29.9% 19.5% +3.47%
2004 32.1% 17.4% +1.93%
2005 30.6% 16.1% +1.32%
5 All-NBA 1st teams
4 All-Defense 1st teams / 1 All-Defense 2nd team
2.974 MVP Shares
2 MVPs
2 rings
2 Finals MVPs
Notes:
If "peak" play is based on one season, then Shaq may in fact have the GOAT. However....over the span of a 5 year peak, Shaq actually gets the least recognition of the group, and this is in a weak era for centers. Bird gets the most MVP love, while Kobe & TD have the bbst 2-way play. Impact-wise, all 4 are nearly even in both rings and Finals MVPs.
Playoff Success:Playoff Series Record:
W-L PCT
Kobe 99-11' 28-7 80%
Bird 80-91' 23-8 74.2%
Shaq 93-08' 31-11 73.8%
Duncan 98-11' 25-9 73.5%
Playoff Series Record with HCA:
Kobe 99-11' 25-2 92.6%
Shaq 93-08' 24-4 85.7%
Duncan 98-11' 18-5 78.7%
Bird 80-91' 23-7 76.7%
Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +2 SRS:
Kobe 99-11' 24-2 92.3%
Shaq 93-08' 16-4 80%
Bird 80-91' 13-5 72.2%
Duncan 98-11' 12-5 70.6%
Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +4 SRS:
Kobe 99-11' 12-2 85.7%
Shaq 93-08' 7-2 77.8%%
Duncan 98-11' 6-2 75%
Bird 80-91' 6-5 54.5%
Kobe clearly outperforms the group. Shaq is also the clear 2nd, while I give TD the nod over Bird, due to his record again +4 SRS teams. Interestingly, Kobe did better without Shaq, than Shaq did wihtout Kobe.
One amazing fact, is that from 00-11', EVERY team Kobe faced was 2 SRS or higher. Even still, his team were 12-2 against +4 SRS teams. All 4 played in tough conferences, so I don't see that as a factor.
Final Analysis:All 4 are clearly amazing players. But one guy had the eltie offense, elite defense, elite peak, and elite playoff success, and that's Kobe. TD comes close for me, but I feel Bryant's combo of offense + defense is greater than his. Head to Head in 6 playoff series matchups, Kobe individually outplayed TD 4 out of 6 times, and his team also won 4 out of 6 times. Even during their peaks, Bryant was barely behing in MVP shares, while matching other accolades. I see their relation very much like Magic/Bird.
Shaq had a great 3 year run from 00-02', but he just didn't sustain that level of play(especially as a defensive anchor) throughout his career. So he's behind Kobe/TD. Sure, he put up very efficient FG%, but he was never a domiannt rebounder, or paint protector. And as a 300lb big, that's a damn shame. From 93-08'(16 seasons), Shaq had 6 seasons where he played 57 games or less. Yes, he had guady offensive numbers....but games played is a big factor in his impact from year to year. That knocks his longevity down a bit in my eyes.
Bird looks to be the runaway winner for #6. But I guess I have to play the role of outlier once again. I have Bird behind TD & Kobe, and on par with Shaq at this point. One of the great all-around players ever, but a mediore defender. Taking into account all the data I have laid out, he falls a little short.
Vote for #6 = KobeNomination = Barkley.