RealGM Top 100 List #26

Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ

Sedale Threatt
RealGM
Posts: 51,098
And1: 45,556
Joined: Feb 06, 2007
Location: Clearing space in the trophy case.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#41 » by Sedale Threatt » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:16 pm

Sorry for the recent absences. It's football season, so my participation is going to take a big hit for the immediate future. I'll try to get a list together so I don't miss any more.

Vote: Hondo. (mistakenly put Baylor at first)
Nominate: Cousy.

drza wrote:Also...I'm about ready to start seriously discussing Isiah as well. Like Gervin, on the surface he's not my kind of player. But living through it at the time, he absolutely FELT like one of the greats while I watched him. I'd be interested in seeing his case vs some of these players as well.


Couldn't agree more. If I had to pick one guy whose game does not sufficiently translate to statistical measures, it would be Zeke.

TMACFORMVP wrote:As far as scoring wings go, Nique may be the most underrated player on RealGM (note: I said RealGM, not the actual media). But nonetheless, all I hear when someone discuss Nique is "low efficiency, hollow stat loser." Dude was a dominant scorer, and not as bad as people make him out to be in the supposed weaknesses in his game.


Couldn't agree more, again. The guy was just a machine. Ten straight seasons with 25-plus ppg demands some modicum of respect. Didn't do much else, but there were few better when it came to putting the ball through the rim.

Paul Pierce, for example, obviously had more breadth to his game, but I don't see how his impact would have been significantly better than Wilkins. The Lakers draft him instead of James Worthy, and he'd have already been voted in 10 slots ago.
JordansBulls
RealGM
Posts: 60,467
And1: 5,349
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: HCA (Homecourt Advantage)

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#42 » by JordansBulls » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:19 pm

TMACFORMVP wrote:Re: Dr. Mufasa, while I don't agree with you about McGrady's particular place in this project, I couldn't agree with you more about Nique. :D

As far as scoring wings go, Nique may be the most underrated player on RealGM (note: I said RealGM, not the actual media). But nonetheless, all I hear when someone discuss Nique is "low efficiency, hollow stat loser." Dude was a dominant scorer, and not as bad as people make him out to be in the supposed weaknesses in his game. I personally don't have him here yet, but I think we should get his name out there, because I think we're at a point where he should start coming up on the horizon - and certainly not too far behind Pierce/McGrady in an All-Time Sort Ranking.

Scoring
- The only players in NBA history with more 25+ PPG seasons are Jerry West, Karl Malone and Michael Jordan (all with more than 10 seasons).

- He's in fact tied with guys like Kobe, Shaq, and Kareem for 10 straight 25 PPG seasons. That's ridiculous longevity for scoring that sort of output night in and night out. For comparisons sake, a guy like Gervin has three entire seasons less scoring the ball at that sort of rate (though I understand that's flawed, since he had many other high volume scoring seasons, while Nique pretty much did 25 PPG or bust). The only players with more 2000 point seasons are Karl Malone, Kareem, and Jordan.

- In a stretch, from 90-95, Nique had four seasons of scoring at least 25 PPG on a .550 TS% or higher. The only other players to replicate such a feat during this time frame was Jordan (4x), Malone (5x), and Mullin (4x). Keep in mind, this is the same stretch with first three peat Jordan, peak Hakeem, DRob, Barkley, Ewing, and still in prime Karl Malone.

The bottom line when Weiss took over as the head coach, Nique became a considerably more efficient but similar in high volume scorer.

Heck in '93, Nique averaged 30/7/3 on 47% from the field, and 38% from three (finishing top 10 in the league in three point makes). I don't think we realize how special that sort of season is from a scoring perspective. In NBA history, there have only been 12 seasons in where a player has done 28+ PPG on at least 45% from the field and 35% from three (with over half a three made per game):

Jordan (4x), Bird (3x), TMac (1x), Durant (1x), Bryant (2x).

I'm not trying to say his peak is on par with some of these guys, but I think we should realize Nique did have efficient seasons scoring the ball, with one season where he was just ridiculous. (His efficiency difference between wins/losses for that Hawks team was incredible, in 39 wins, he did 33/7/4 on .596 TS, in their 31 losses, he did 26/7/3 on .535 TS. He had two months shooting the ball at a 50/40/83 rate, while putting up 34 and 31 PPG respectively those months. A real underlooked season, despite a short playoff exit, IMO). I mean, seriously look at his 91, and 93 season and compare them to Durant's just last season - Nique would nearly have the edge in most categories.

His TS% relative to league average was a nice margin ABOVE.

90: .536 (.556) + 2.0
91: .534 (.555) + 2.1
92: .531 (.552) + 2.1
93: .536 (.570) + 3.4
94: .527 (.529) + 0.2

Admittedly it's lower during the first part of his career, but he scored at roughly league average for three more seasons.

87: .537 (.543) + 0.6
88: .537 (.534) - 0.3
89: .536 (.528) - 0.8

He's had two seasons (his first two seasons of the streak) where he's averaged considerably less than the league wide true shooting percentage, which is unfortunate, but does not define his career, IMO. In case anyone is interested:

85: .543 (.512) - 3.1
86: .555 (.536) - 1.9

EDIT - The Hawks were 11th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 4th, 8th, 16th (year Nique got hurt), 10th during Nique's prime. That's pretty impressive considering the lack of other legitimate options.

He's had what you could argue eight terrific seasons ITO of scoring ability with a four year peak that's nearly in line with some of the years Kobe has had (in terms of scoring). Has led the league in scoring, came twice three more times, finished in the Top 10 in FT's attempted 7 times, and even finished in the top 10ish in 3 Pointers made twice.

I'm not trying to say Nique was a super efficient guy, but he wasn't as bad as advertised.

Rebounding
I saw ElGee's post about Pippen's rebounding #'s and what TrueLAFan be considered an average rebounder for a SF. Surprisingly enough, the "one dimensional" Nique has a similar career TRB% when compared to Pippen. 10.4 Career TRB%, including peaking at a 13.0 TRB%. He's even had a season where he averaged nearly 26 PPG along with 9.0 rebounds. The only perimeter players that have averaged at least 25/9 are Larry Bird, Oscar Robertson, Elgin Baylor, Billy Cunningham and Rick Barry. You could even consider Bird/Cunningham as combo sort forwards, and being in a more modern era, that's damn impressive by Nique.

Note: I'm not saying he's a better rebounder than Pippen, because in the playoffs Nique generally stayed the same/slightly worse, while Pippen increased his output, but Nique was a fantastic rebounder for his position, with a terrific peak.

Impact/Winning
91-92: (22-20 w/him -- .523 %) (16-24 w/out him -- .400 winning %)
92-93: (39-32 w/him -- .549 % ) (4-7 w/out him -- .363 winning %)

TOTAL W/OUT NIQUE: 101.6 PPG
LEAGUE AVERAGE: 105.6
TOTAL W/ NIQUE: 110.6 PPG (+9.0)

That's taking a team with the a below average offensive team and making it one of the best in the league. Just for reference sake; 101.6 would be ranked the 22nd worst scoring offense (of 27), while 110.6 would be ranked 5th in terms of overall scoring offenses.

TOTAL (over the course of those two seasons):
61-52 (.539) w/him.
20-31 (.392) w/out him.

That's pretty telling in the sense that it would go against the "he had no real impact on his team" sort of thing. He took them from a team that was below average offensively, and made them slightly above average.

- He led four straight 50 win teams (including one Hawks team that won 57 games). To note, Paul Pierce during his prime has never been the best or more impact-ful player on a 50 win team (though, it's nitpicking as one of his teams won 49, IIRC). Nonetheless, Nique's production goes down in the playoffs, which should drop him down considerably (if he was a fantastic playoff performer, he should arguably be in contention for the spot right now).

But how much can we really blame him for losing in the playoffs. The teams Nique lost to in the playoffs throughout his career consisted of:

86 Celtics, '87 Pistons, '88 Celtics, '89 Bucks, '91 Pistons, '93 Bulls

Outside of the '89 Bucks, we're talking about the best teams in the NBA, some including the greatest teams of All-Time (Celtics, Bulls). Considering Nique never had a legitimate All-Star next to him (Willis was an all-star the year Nique was hurt, and the team played w/out Nique.. Willis was good, but not someone I'd call the help needed to beat the teams listed above).

I think in this competition, we've done a good job of looking past certain circumstances players have been given, and moreso judging them on what they were able to do with what they're given. I think Nique getting a couple 50 win teams and other playoff appearances only losing to the best personifies that train of thought.

Accolades
- 5 Top 10 Finishes in MVP Voting (2, 5, 6, 8, 5)
- 7 Time All-NBA.
- 9 Time NBA All-Star
- NBA Scoring Champ

Style Of Play
Some people say his style of play wasn't conducive to winning basketball. I have to ask, why that is? The usual response is, ball hog that eats up the shot clock and takes players out of the rythmn of their offense. I've seen a lot of Nique games recently, and tbh, I've never got the impression he held the ball, and stopped movement. He was much more a quick hitter that made his moves early, often got doubled and tripled team, and would pass well out of them. At times he would force shots, but not to any extent that it actually hurt his team. What scorers of these caliber DIDN'T force shots at times?

And his ROLE on those Hawks teams were to take shots and score points. If he wasn't there to do it, we see the sort of impact it had on the Hawks in '92 and '93. If the Hawks management wasn't so stupid, we could potentially be talking about a Nique that reached the ECF. in '94. The Hawks were rolling before they traded him, which ultimately crushed him, and ended his career (on his Beyond the Glory, he was so crushed, that he just went home crying looking for someone to hug). There have been articles claiming it could have finally been Nique's "year" with Jordan having retired for the first time. Now that's all purely speculative, but the Hawks started 24-7 (won around 34 of 49 with Nique), and he had reduced his shot attempts with a better supporting cast, and they were poised to make a run.

And again, the man DID lead four straight 50 win teams.

He took roughly 20-23 shot attempts for the most part of his prime (20 for his career), which isn't even too far off from the amount of shot attempts Kobe put up.

Defense/Playmaking
Not much to defend here, as these are some of the more criticized parts of his game as well, but I'd just like to point out that:

a.) I don't think Nique's defense was terrible per se. It wasn't good, he didn't fight hard through screens, but we have to figure in some of the offensive load he had for the team, right? He was OK in the passing lanes, and was tough in denying the ball before the pick or screen. With Fratello and a solid defensive cast (Rollins), the 80's Hawks were among the better defensive teams in the league, in fact finishing 2nd in DRTG once season! I know that's not a huge indicator, but I've never got the impression that he was a huge liability defensively. Average, not great, or even particularly good, but not horrible, or particularly bad. Hell, in most games, you'll often see Nique taking majority of the challenge of guarding the opponents best player.

b.) He didn't get many assists, but he didn't turn the ball over. From 90-94, he gave you over 3 assists, and was always under 3 turnovers. Compare that to a more modern day sort scorer in Melo, and you could conclude that Nique was much more careful with the ball in his hands. His assist to turnover ratio isn't a negative like it was Gervin, or even Melo. He was giving you roughly the same amount of assists/mistakes, but in his peak, had a decently positive AST/TO ratio, which again can't be said for a guy like Gervin.

TL;DR version: Nique was an outstanding scorer, with underrated efficiency, a very good rebounder, and didn't make too many mistakes with the ball. He led numerous teams to the playoffs, including 4 straight 50 win teams, and only lost to some of the best teams the era has had to offer. He should be knocked down for his lack of upping his game in the playoffs, but he has decent longevity, and was always critically recognized as one of the best players in the league whether it be in terms of MVP voting, or All-NBA selections. I'm not saying I have him for my nomination here (that still resides with Kidd, and a few more guys), but his name should come up soon - and he deserves a little more respect than those give him sometimes on RGM.


Great post here. I would say other than the 1989 series with the Bucks that Nique wasn't favorite much. I think the 1987 team as well when they were the #2 seed they were favorite as well.
Image
"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
lorak
Head Coach
Posts: 6,317
And1: 2,237
Joined: Nov 23, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#43 » by lorak » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:32 pm

TMACFORMVP wrote:Impact/Winning
91-92: (22-20 w/him -- .523 %) (16-24 w/out him -- .400 winning %)
92-93: (39-32 w/him -- .549 % ) (4-7 w/out him -- .363 winning %)

TOTAL W/OUT NIQUE: 101.6 PPG
LEAGUE AVERAGE: 105.6
TOTAL W/ NIQUE: 110.6 PPG (+9.0)


Outstanding overall post, but I want to add something to this part.

Looking at ortg and drtg Wilkins impact on offense was clearly very good: +4.4 in 1992 and +7.8 in 1993 (but it's much smaller sample in 1993). That's impact on, for example, Barkley's level.

However on defensive end his impact seems to be negative (another similarity with Barkley :) ): +2 in 1992 and +1.6 in 1993.

So overall Wilkins net impact isn'too impresive in 1992 (only +2.4), but very good in 1993 when sample was smaller (+6.2).
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,582
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:55 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I don't know why this kills you. How much deference do you expect out of an 11 time all-nba first teamer? West joined the squad in '61 and was played sparingly as a rookie. As a sophomore in '62 West increased his role but baylor, playing only on leave days, understandably would want to put on a show on his precious few free days and i'm sure west obliged in feeding him the ball. in '64 the two worked rather nicely except West missed a good chunk of games due to a hammy injury which would account for Baylor's edge in fga's. in from 1964 onwards, post-baylor's injury, West and Baylor had pretty similar fga's with West being much more ball dominant as a lead guard, and west holding an edge in FTA's as well. The transition from Baylor being the big dog, to the two working mutually had finally settled into it being West's team by the mid 60's for sure. I don't get the impression that Baylor was Kobe out there eating into Shaq's touches in the '04 finals or anything.

as for every other kind of role needed? Baylor was always in the 4-5 range in assists good for 2nd or 3rd on the team and was easily the best rebounder the lakers had until Wilt.


How much deference do I expect? When an inferior talent is confronted with a superior talent, it's the inferior talent's job to get on board. Failure to do so is something you should be knocked for.

I feel like so much of the defense of Baylor is a "Yeah, but things would have been different in a different situation. On a team where he was the best player, he'd have been more valuable. If he'd have been raised in a different era, he would have played smarter."

For me personally it's getting too removed from what actually happened. I understand making allowances for different eras, but when we see him have issues that other guys born in the same time frame don't have, this *has* to count against him to some degree.

Realistically, part of the reason people are comfortable giving Baylor's such benefit of the doubt is the accolades. Here I am making a case for Hondo over Baylor when Baylor was basically guaranteed to beat him in All-NBA accolades in the '60s. Pretty easy to look at me and say I'm the one projecting unreasonable standards on Baylor.

To me though, this is where stripping away the accolades is so liberating. I look at Hondo's statistical and it fits right in with prime Baylor except for the rebounding - and of course Hondo's got the major defensive edge. When Hondo was putting up those numbers, he was a All-NBA 1st team guy too. I don't see any reason why he couldn't have been doing that earlier.

Now, I understand someone responding "Yeah but he didn't, so you're playing the 'what if' game." Thing is though, Hondo in the 60s was actually doing *exactly* what the Celtics needed him to do. The team would have been worse if he'd had the more glamorous focus and played more like Baylor. Meanwhile over on the Lakers, the team would have been better off if Baylor had been able to play more like the versatile Hondo.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,861
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#45 » by drza » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:36 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:I don't know why this kills you. How much deference do you expect out of an 11 time all-nba first teamer? West joined the squad in '61 and was played sparingly as a rookie. As a sophomore in '62 West increased his role but baylor, playing only on leave days, understandably would want to put on a show on his precious few free days and i'm sure west obliged in feeding him the ball. in '64 the two worked rather nicely except West missed a good chunk of games due to a hammy injury which would account for Baylor's edge in fga's. in from 1964 onwards, post-baylor's injury, West and Baylor had pretty similar fga's with West being much more ball dominant as a lead guard, and west holding an edge in FTA's as well. The transition from Baylor being the big dog, to the two working mutually had finally settled into it being West's team by the mid 60's for sure. I don't get the impression that Baylor was Kobe out there eating into Shaq's touches in the '04 finals or anything.

as for every other kind of role needed? Baylor was always in the 4-5 range in assists good for 2nd or 3rd on the team and was easily the best rebounder the lakers had until Wilt.


How much deference do I expect? When an inferior talent is confronted with a superior talent, it's the inferior talent's job to get on board. Failure to do so is something you should be knocked for.

I feel like so much of the defense of Baylor is a "Yeah, but things would have been different in a different situation. On a team where he was the best player, he'd have been more valuable. If he'd have been raised in a different era, he would have played smarter."

For me personally it's getting too removed from what actually happened. I understand making allowances for different eras, but when we see him have issues that other guys born in the same time frame don't have, this *has* to count against him to some degree.

Realistically, part of the reason people are comfortable giving Baylor's such benefit of the doubt is the accolades. Here I am making a case for Hondo over Baylor when Baylor was basically guaranteed to beat him in All-NBA accolades in the '60s. Pretty easy to look at me and say I'm the one projecting unreasonable standards on Baylor.

To me though, this is where stripping away the accolades is so liberating. I look at Hondo's statistical and it fits right in with prime Baylor except for the rebounding - and of course Hondo's got the major defensive edge. When Hondo was putting up those numbers, he was a All-NBA 1st team guy too. I don't see any reason why he couldn't have been doing that earlier.

Now, I understand someone responding "Yeah but he didn't, so you're playing the 'what if' game." Thing is though, Hondo in the 60s was actually doing *exactly* what the Celtics needed him to do. The team would have been worse if he'd had the more glamorous focus and played more like Baylor. Meanwhile over on the Lakers, the team would have been better off if Baylor had been able to play more like the versatile Hondo.


It seems to me that you're making assumptions that I'm not sure have been confirmed (or at the least, I haven't seen it confirmed). The first assumption you make is that Baylor's shot attempts were coming out of West's jar. I'm not sure I see that. We're looking at a time period in which teams were taking WELL over 100 shots per game...there were 80+ shots available in most games even with Elgin's excluded. It seems to me that West may have already BEEN at his maximum scoring/efficiency curve. As such, I don't really see "should have deferred to West more" as a viable thing to knock Baylor on.

Another assumption that you're making is that Baylor's shooting volume hurt the team. Again, I don't recall the evidence convincing me of this during the RPoY project. I remember West having good +/- numbers in his absences, which indicated that HE was great. But I don't recall a realistic argument that the Lakers were better without Baylor. In the '65 playoffs, for example, when Baylor went down the Lakers were able to take advantage of their bye and a poor Bullets team to get to the Finals on Wests shoulders, but they got absolutely SHALLACKED by the Celtics in the Finals. I think Baylor's absence absolutely showed up against the better teams.

Then, you assume that Hondo's game is more conducive to winning than Baylor's. I'm not sure that's supported either. Would a Baylor-type volume scorer as the second guys have derailed Russell's Celtics? I have no reason to believe so, as their games would seem to mesh. I can also just as easily see Baylor working well on the Cowens Celtics title teams. Did Hondo play more the style that I tend to appreciate than Baylor? Absolutely. But style doesn't necessarily equal caliber, and I just need more...something to make Hondo's case. It sucks that there's so much information lost as we go back in time, though, so perhaps in the end looking at stylistic trends and making assumptions may be all we can do.

And finally, though you mention it and kind of minimize it, it IS true that you're assuming present-day mindset on something that happened 50 years ago. Baylor was putting up Wilt-light cartoonish numbers, AND he was consistently having great team success. His teams weren't beating the Celtics, but then again, NOBODY was in that era. As such, I don't know that it's fair to dock him for not changing his style of game to standards that hadn't even been invented yet. And again, it's one thing to value Russell over Wilt because his game was more conducive to winning...similarly, if you value West and Oscar over Baylor for similar reasons that's cool as well...but Oscar and West have long been voted in so a message of "Baylor wasn't as good as them" isn't really damning in my eyes.

And none of this is to necessarily say I'm voting Baylor this thread. I'm not sure. But some of the arguments that I've seen used against him in this thread haven't really resonated with me at this stage of the voting. Baylor's another who definitely doesn't fit the mold of what I generally look for in a player...but that doesn't mean that he wasn't great.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
pancakes3
General Manager
Posts: 9,585
And1: 3,014
Joined: Jul 27, 2003
Location: Virginia
Contact:

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#46 » by pancakes3 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:40 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:How much deference do I expect? When an inferior talent is confronted with a superior talent, it's the inferior talent's job to get on board. Failure to do so is something you should be knocked for.


It's the first mention of failure for deference that I've seen thus far from you or anyone else... for a situation that's not exactly egregious in my opinion. West DID take over and Baylor DID get on board. Why knock Baylor and not... Kobe in the 04 playoffs, Lebron not giving up ball handling duties to Wade, Pippen walking off the court when Phil gave the shot to Kukoc, Havlicek himself for gunning too much in Cousy's estimation etc.

I feel like so much of the defense of Baylor is a "Yeah, but things would have been different in a different situation. On a team where he was the best player, he'd have been more valuable. If he'd have been raised in a different era, he would have played smarter."


Oh, you mean the "KG" defense that was supposedly put to rest 13 votes ago? I mean, at the #26 spot, being able to be the #1 guy on a team that goes to the finals 3 times in 5 seasons is pretty decent, no? i suppose if he didn't run into the Celtics he would have won a ring or two, but that defense was used with Wilt and it didn't seem to be much of an issue... a drop of 1-2 spots tops. I don't find this particularly jarring of a defense (nor that prevalent of an issue?)

For me personally it's getting too removed from what actually happened. I understand making allowances for different eras, but when we see him have issues that other guys born in the same time frame don't have, this *has* to count against him to some degree.


it *has*. Wilt, O, West, and Russ are all voted in and has been for a good while now. How much longer should we keep him languishing in nomination purgatory?

Realistically, part of the reason people are comfortable giving Baylor's such benefit of the doubt is the accolades. Here I am making a case for Hondo over Baylor when Baylor was basically guaranteed to beat him in All-NBA accolades in the '60s. Pretty easy to look at me and say I'm the one projecting unreasonable standards on Baylor.

To me though, this is where stripping away the accolades is so liberating. I look at Hondo's statistical and it fits right in with prime Baylor except for the rebounding - and of course Hondo's got the major defensive edge. When Hondo was putting up those numbers, he was a All-NBA 1st team guy too. I don't see any reason why he couldn't have been doing that earlier.

Now, I understand someone responding "Yeah but he didn't, so you're playing the 'what if' game." Thing is though, Hondo in the 60s was actually doing *exactly* what the Celtics needed him to do. The team would have been worse if he'd had the more glamorous focus and played more like Baylor. Meanwhile over on the Lakers, the team would have been better off if Baylor had been able to play more like the versatile Hondo.


How about somebody responding with "why did you gloss over the 'except the rebounding' issue?" or the "Havlicek didn't see nearly as much success as Baylor when they both were the lone star player on their respective squads" rebuttal?
Bullets -> Wizards
Fade-away
Ballboy
Posts: 26
And1: 0
Joined: Jul 03, 2011

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#47 » by Fade-away » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:09 pm

DavidStern wrote:
Fade-away wrote:
Gongxi wrote:Based mostly on accolades and team success. Next.



that lists seems more logical and reliable than the list that is being made on this forum



Not really. For example Robertson over Kobe. KB, West and Robertson over Hakeem. Baylor at #13 is completely LOL. Hondo at #17 also. Cousy and Stockton over Robinson is even more silly, something like "lol * infinity".


i have Kobe over Robertson but Robertson has at least a case over him and Baylor at 13 makes more sense then having at 26 or something (he probably should be somewhere around 15-19 imo but 25/26 is ROFLOL
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,864
And1: 16,409
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#48 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:44 pm

Epic Nique post, Tmac

I think there's a dichotomy here where the cooling on Nique compared to his in time media hype has been "Well, there's more to the game than raw ppg". But there's also more to scoring than TS%. Especially on teams where the star is expected to shoot against coverage due to less options out there.

Another point I notice about Nique is that he was a fabulous TOV% player for his volume - he ranked top 10 in the stat from 85-80, and again in 93 and 94, and he ranked 2nd in 88, 3rd in 89, 5th in 90. This allowed him to put up some shockingly good ORTG numbers. From 85 on his ORTGs went 107, 111, 115, 111, 114, 118, 116, 113, 119, 110. Those are excellent numbers. Here are some comparables:

Gervin (78-83): 111, 112, 115, 113, 114, 112
Pierce (01-11): 107, 109, 104, 101, 114, 112, 110, 115, 112, 114, 116
Tmac (01-07): 109, 111, 116, 110, 109, 102, 106
Carmelo (06-11): 110, 109, 109, 105, 110, 109
English (81-89): 118, 113, 114, 113, 113, 113, 111, 109
Durant (09-11): 111, 118, 115

If you like ORTG as an efficiency stat in comparison to TS%, Wilkins goes from ok to kind of fantastic. There's a case to be made that Wilkins was about 1 shot a game away from the good .57-.60 TS% range consistently (1 shot is more than it sounds as an average mind you), but he got it back by not relying on dribbling as much and not turning it over. I don't know if I trust ORTG as much as TS% because if Wilkins wasn't dribbling, somebody else was and that somebody was more likely to turn it over than a player on Pierce or Tmac's team. But still. It's something to think about. The Hawks team TOV% stats btw, with a high ranking being good: 85 - 12th, 86 - 15th, 87 - 4th, 88 - 2nd, 89th - 5th, 90 - 12th, 91 - 4th, 92 - 6th, 93 - 14th. So it looks pretty good in terms of Wilkins low TOV% rate helping his team
Liberate The Zoomers
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,582
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#49 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:16 am

pancakes3 wrote:It's the first mention of failure for deference that I've seen thus far from you or anyone else... for a situation that's not exactly egregious in my opinion. West DID take over and Baylor DID get on board. Why knock Baylor and not... Kobe in the 04 playoffs, Lebron not giving up ball handling duties to Wade, Pippen walking off the court when Phil gave the shot to Kukoc, Havlicek himself for gunning too much in Cousy's estimation etc.


Baylor shots more than 20 FGA per 36 minutes 8 times in his career. West only did it twice, and in those two years, Baylor still outshot him by about 3 FGA per 36. In '68-69 Baylor's last full season, he was *still* shooting FGA at a faster rate than West. I have a real hard time time seeing that as getting on board.

Why not knock Kobe for not getting on board in the '04 playoffs? I do. People on this board think I'm a Kobe hater.

Why not knock LeBron for not giving up ball handling duties to Wade? Umm, I knock him for being to ready to stand back and watch Wade in the finals.

Why not knock Pippen for walking off the court? I do...though seriously, it was only one play.

Why not knock Havlicek for not letting Cousy gun more? Umm, if you'd let him, I'd swear Cousy would shoot every dang possession as his TS% dropped below 25.

pancakes3 wrote:Oh, you mean the "KG" defense that was supposedly put to rest 13 votes ago? I mean, at the #26 spot, being able to be the #1 guy on a team that goes to the finals 3 times in 5 seasons is pretty decent, no? i suppose if he didn't run into the Celtics he would have won a ring or two, but that defense was used with Wilt and it didn't seem to be much of an issue... a drop of 1-2 spots tops. I don't find this particularly jarring of a defense (nor that prevalent of an issue?)


I'm not saying 26 is too high for Baylor, I'm just leveling criticisms related to the comparisons relevant to this discussion.

Re: "but Wilt didn't drop that much". Um, dude I'm the one who began the project shocking everyone by not listing Wilt in my top 10. Obviously I see Wilt's issues differently than most, and have fought fiercely to try to make everyone see how shockingly overrated he was.

pancakes3 wrote:it *has*. Wilt, O, West, and Russ are all voted in and has been for a good while now. How much longer should we keep him languishing in nomination purgatory?


I would suppose until he starts being compared with players who don't look more impressive than him once you factor in his issues. Remember, I started from a perspective of the fact that Hondo's prime stats look a lot like Baylor's prime stats. I wouldn't be bringing up Baylor's efficiency issues in a debate with Bob Cousy.

pancakes3 wrote:How about somebody responding with "why did you gloss over the 'except the rebounding' issue?" or the "Havlicek didn't see nearly as much success as Baylor when they both were the lone star player on their respective squads" rebuttal?


Dude, when I quickly mention a possible rebuttal, I do it to save us time. I'm trying to signal to the group that if they want to chime in on those or other issues, they should proceed with depth. You're response here is snappy, but it just draws some things out.

Re: gloss over rebounding issue. I consider Hondo's defensive edge to be comparable to Baylor's rebounding edge, which was why I mentioned them literally right next to each other. If you think that's an unreasonable eqivalency, then expound good sir.

Re: Hondo less success as only star. Eh, I think that's a pretty flimsy statement.

Baylor played two seasons without West, and then one more season where the rookie West clearly wasn't a star. In those 3 seasons their best was W-L % as 45.8. (The next year, West became a star, and despite Baylor missing almost half the season the Lakers won 67.5% of their games)

Havlicek on the other hand had a grand total of two seasons without another star (rookie Cowens was not an all-star), and in that second year the Celtics won 53.7% of their games.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
TrueLAfan
Senior Mod - Clippers
Senior Mod - Clippers
Posts: 8,260
And1: 1,785
Joined: Apr 11, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#50 » by TrueLAfan » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:23 am

Staying out of this, but wanted to make a couple of quick comments.

West and Elgin did not have styles of play—or teammates—that necessarily made each other shine. Elgin wasn't a catch and shoot guy; he didn't need a guy getting a double on the perimeter, or passing out as he slashes to the hoop. Those were two of Jerry West's great strengths. Baylor was a huge usage, ball control player; a Dominique Wilkins type player. Bringing in another great player that requires the ball a lot--even if a bit less--doesn't necessarily make a player like that better. It reduces his touches and usage. It takes away from his game. Jerry West, on the other hand, functioned with pretty equal effectiveness as a first options, a co-first option, or a second option. I don't think Baylor had much effect on West; I think West may actually have hurt Elgin a bit. Baylor was the highlight reel player, but West could do more overall offensively and was less affected by teammate changes. I think West adjusted his game to Elgin more—and it is interesting to note here that, when Wilt joined the Lakers, it was Wilt who was asked to change his offensive positioning for Elgin and not vice versa. But the point is that West and Elgin didn't make things a lot better for each other, not as much as a better put together team might have.

This is not to take away from Elgin's strengths. He made it possible for Jerry West to get a lot of open looks; Elgin Baylor was an excellent passer. He was a very good ballhandler. He was a Shawn Marion-type rebounder. He was a premium scorer and player, especially prior to his knee injury. (In a way, Baylor is Dr. J lite ... Elgin's mid-career knee issues were more pronounced, his peak wasn't quite as high, and his post injury career was shorter and had a slightly higher dropoff.) Still, being a little less than Julius Erving--who won MVPs in two leagues--is not exactly a bad thing. And it is difficult to conceive of just how bad the Lakers frontcourt players were in the early and mid 1960s. Given that they had two superstars, they were the mostly poorly built team imaginable. The Lakers were successful because West and Elgin were talented enough to make their games work together … but they were not really complimentary players. Except in leadership...I think Elgin's willingness to defer to West as an on court leader and Elgin's more happy-go-lucky personality worked well with West, who was stone cold on the hardwood. But I also think those qualities indicate a problem with Elgin as an alpha dog type player. He's a diffiuclt player to peg.

I think Nique, in general, is underrated. Contemporaries thought he was equal to or better than Drexler. He wasn't as inefficient as some say; his teams won consistently (the Hawks averaged about 47 wins a year with Nique in his peak 9-10 year period). You can't hold his inability to get to the finals against him too much...his peak period with Hawks coincided with the peak and slow decline of the great Celtics teams, the Bad Boys Pistons, and the rise of the first threepeat Bulls. His defensive shortcomings are a little overrated; he wasn't great, but he was okay as a help defender (and below average on man D). A guy who wins pretty consistently, doesn't miss games, passes well, goes to the line a ton, rebounds well, has good range, and gets you close to 30 points a game for 10 years is valuable. There is a reason he got MVP votes in 7 of those peak 10 years, was in the top 11 of voting six times, and was in the top 5 three times. It's the same reason why he had five first or second team All-NBA selections and two other 3rd team selections in that decade. He was very, very good.

That being said...I've always kind of felt that Elgin Baylor was more or less equal to Nique in offensive value … except Elgin passed better. And rebounded about 20% better. But Nique has some consistency and durability speaking for him. (And the fine points about Nique's lack of TOs should be noted as well.) If Elgin goes in here...and I'm thinking he should...Nique can't be that far behind.
Image
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,582
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#51 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:45 am

TrueLAfan wrote:Staying out of this, but wanted to make a couple of quick comments.


Always glad to see "Last Post: TrueLAfan".
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Fencer reregistered
RealGM
Posts: 41,050
And1: 27,921
Joined: Oct 25, 2006

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#52 » by Fencer reregistered » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:52 am

Good arguments both for and against Baylor/Nique.

I continue not to be much impressed by defensive rebounding stats, because the team is supposed to get them, and it's a team scheme choice as to which player is supposed to get them. Still, as with most stats, if a guy gets a whole lot of something, then perhaps it's at least a little more than what a more ordinary player might have accomplished.

I continue to be:

Vote: Hondo
Nominate: Pierce


pending seeing a vote count that might outline the chances for strategic switching (I have Baylor over Ewing).
Banned temporarily for, among other sins, being "Extremely Deviant".
lorak
Head Coach
Posts: 6,317
And1: 2,237
Joined: Nov 23, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#53 » by lorak » Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:21 am

I see comparison Baylor=Dr J, but Baylor was rather like McGinnis: poor shot selection, many assists, but also many, many turnovers, weak defense... neither of these things describe Dr J.
User avatar
ronnymac2
RealGM
Posts: 11,008
And1: 5,077
Joined: Apr 11, 2008
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#54 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:52 am

Great posts by TMAC and TrueLA.

To add to what True said...Baylor and West were also a bad fit as a duo in that particular era. I actually think they would be a better fit with each other in this era.

Also, Baylor had to play out of position at PF because L.A. sucked inside until they got Wilt. It's truly a testament to their talents that they carried L.A. to the brink of so many titles.


Anyway, not sure if I can get back before tomorrow, so...

Vote: Rick Barry

Nominate: Jason Kidd
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,425
And1: 9,952
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#55 » by penbeast0 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:57 am

Of course it wasn't just the Celtics. Sidney Moncrief and the Bucks consistently outperformed Nique's Hawks through Sid's 5 year prime -- they just couldn't get past Doc and the Sixers (they were 1-4 v. the Sixers in the playoffs from 81-86, and that year was the 86 Celtics in the ECF (they were 1-2 v. Bird and the Celtics, 1-0 v. Nique and the Hawks).

If Nique is going in, there's a very good argument that Sid should be in there first . . . GOAT man perimeter defender with 2 DPOYs, Superefficient 20 ppg scorer with no weaknesses other than the injury issues . . . Nique was a classy guy for a long time but you have to look at him v. his peers. Even more than Sid, his peers are Alex English, Adrian Dantley, Bernard King, and Mark Aquirre -- every one of which scored as well as Nique at a superior efficiency, passed better, and English at least was a clearly better defender -- I still remember an SI poll of players who named Nique as the NBA player who put the least effort in defensively though his team defensive numbers are good under Fratello. (I value Nique over Aguirre and maybe King for his consistency, Dantley is an odd case whose numbers seem way out of whack with his rep.) Nique got the accolades because he was the Vince Carter of his day with maybe the best nickname of all time "The Human Highlight Film" but he doens't stand out from his peers.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
Laimbeer
RealGM
Posts: 43,073
And1: 15,154
Joined: Aug 12, 2009
Location: Cabin Creek
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#56 » by Laimbeer » Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:42 pm

TMACFORMVP wrote:Impact/Winning
91-92: (22-20 w/him -- .523 %) (16-24 w/out him -- .400 winning %)
92-93: (39-32 w/him -- .549 % ) (4-7 w/out him -- .363 winning %)



I'm not sure this is so revealing. It indicates he has value, of course, but suddenly remove any top scorer from a team and it stands to suffer. They're built around him and there's no immediate replacement. It doesn't make him a Top 35 all-time player.

By the percentages, the team was bad (32 wins annually) without him and average (44 wins annually) with him. Making a bad (not awful) team into an average team is less impressive than making a good team great.

I'd also throw in the Bulls went from 57 to 55 wins in the first year of Jordan's retirement.
Comments to rationalize bad contracts -
1) It's less than the MLE
2) He can be traded later
3) It's only __% of the cap
4) The cap is going up
5) It's only __ years
6) He's a good mentor/locker room guy
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,861
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#57 » by drza » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:21 pm

I was giving this a lot of thought overnight, and I'm leaning Baylor over the other wings (Barry and Havlicek). I re-read the last several threads, and the pro-Baylor arguments by Penbeast, among others, resonate the most with me.

So that leaves my decision as Baylor vs Ewing for my next slot. And it's a hard one. In general terms, we have a volume scoring do-everything-wing (impact primarily offense) vs a more traditional defensive center with still a strong offensive game. Baylor was definitely more decorated vs his peers than Ewing, but that doesn't necessarily make him a better player. Wherein lies my dilemma.

The ultimate question I need help with is, was Baylor's offensive impact as a whole more valuable than Ewing's ability to play both the defensive anchor and offensive centerpiece? And if so, by how much? If APM would have existed in the 60s, would Baylor's look more like LeBron's, Kobe's or TMac's in the multi-year studies? I'm assuming that Ewing's APM would look something like Duncan's or Howards in the way it broke down (stylistically, not necessarily in raw size), with balance between defensive and offensive impact that yields a good sized composite. So for Baylor's overall impact to be bigger, he'd have to be very impressive as an offensive force. And maybe he was...his somewhat stylistic descendent Kobe, after all, measures out great in composite APM due entirely to his strong offensive impact. Maybe Baylor would be the same.

Which again, leaves me stuck because that data doesn't actually exist that I know of. So...anyone want to take a last-day crack at Baylor vs Ewing in terms of impact? I know their accolades, and there've been some good Baylor breakdowns in comparison to his wing counterparts of the time. But how would he compare to Ewing?
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
Laimbeer
RealGM
Posts: 43,073
And1: 15,154
Joined: Aug 12, 2009
Location: Cabin Creek
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#58 » by Laimbeer » Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:54 pm

In at least one sense, is Ewing/Baylor similar to a current comparison of say, Dwight/LeBron? To me, there's a difference between impact and how good these players are, at least partly because of the nature of the center position.

Dwight may have comparable or more impact, but there's no question in my mind LeBron is the better player. I feel the same about Ewing and Baylor.
Comments to rationalize bad contracts -
1) It's less than the MLE
2) He can be traded later
3) It's only __% of the cap
4) The cap is going up
5) It's only __ years
6) He's a good mentor/locker room guy
andrewww
General Manager
Posts: 7,989
And1: 2,687
Joined: Jul 26, 2006

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#59 » by andrewww » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:18 pm

Laimbeer wrote:In at least one sense, is Ewing/Baylor similar to a current comparison of say, Dwight/LeBron? To me, there's a difference between impact and how good these players are, at least partly because of the nature of the center position.

Dwight may have comparable or more impact, but there's no question in my mind LeBron is the better player. I feel the same about Ewing and Baylor.


this.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,582
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #26 

Post#60 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:56 pm

DavidStern wrote:I see comparison Baylor=Dr J, but Baylor was rather like McGinnis: poor shot selection, many assists, but also many, many turnovers, weak defense... neither of these things describe Dr J.


That's really an excellent analogy.

Like Baylor, McGinnis came first and still shot more than his superior teammate.
Like Baylor to West, McGinnis was far less efficient than Erving (though the gap was not as bad as in Baylor's case)
Like Baylor & West, McGinnis & Erving didn't do as well as you'd think given their talent level (though McGinnis & Erving won 50 games each year, whereas Baylor & West did not)

(Of course on the other hand, Baylor certainly had a rebounding edge over West, Baylor wasn't a head case like McGinnis, and McGinnis' epic fall offs in the playoffs were something special. :wink: )
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!

Return to Player Comparisons