Post#45 » by ElGee » Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:06 pm
vote: Sharman
nominate: Anthony
@Beast - no worries about the miscount. I imagine the grunt work is hard and feel bad you've shouldered it after being abandoned by Baller. I'm going to leave a list here just in case I can't/forget to vote, even if I chime in occasionally (my schedule is hectic right now but I try and keep up on my phone).
1. Sharman
2. Anthony
3. Kemp
4. Brand (if nominated)
5. Deron Williams (if nominated)
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While I'm here, also wanted to throw out a few thoughts for the stretch run:
I have evaluated 104 players. Some notable guys I haven't finished evaluating who MIGHT take one of the final spots:
Dave Bing (Is anyone aware he was top-6 in MVP voting 3 times? Check the RPOY threads on him...)
Dan Issell
Terry Cummings - not sure what to make of his peak impact yet
DeBuscherre - Another glue guy
Shawn Marion
Maurice Cheeks
Brad Daugherty
Sheed
Ho Grant
Steve Smith
Stephon Marbury
Mel Daniels
Earl Monroe
Norm Van Lier
Eddie Jones
Yao
Hopefully I get time to give these players full examination before the final 10 spots. Some thoughts on them for others to consider:
Dave DeBusschere was traded to New York in 1969 and the Knicks transformed. Rasheed Wallace was traded to the Pistons in 2004 and the Pistons transformed. What's so interesting to me about both of these cases:
-Sheed and Dave joined teams as a tertiary player
-Sheed and Dave joined balanced teams
-Both these teams had excellent coaches
Truly examples of the sum being greater than the collection of parts. Basketball is a game of interaction. We should acknowledge when a player is capable of molding into a team setting and acting as a tipping point -- brining the offense or defense together with that one extra point of pressure -- but I caution people in viewing this type of impact as monstrous, superstar impact in a vacuum.
WIthout Wallace, the 2004 Blazers were 1.8 points BETTER (reaching nearly .500 play). Sheed wasn't going to provide massive lift to a lot of teams, especially ones that were thin. In 1969, Dave left the lowly Pistons (a -3.6 MOV team) and they were 0.6 points BETTER without him for the rest of the year. Sometimes, players fill huge roles or the chemistry is right...and the result can be huge. It doesn't mean that player would do the same for 95% of the teams in the league. It's quite possible, even plausible, that if the 69 Knicks started with DeBusschere and traded for Frazier, the change would be the same (or greater), and it's quite possible if the 04 Pistons started with Sheed as their lone big and imported Ben the explosion would have been comparable. The order of operations should not influence our understanding of how good someone is at basketball.
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I think the mention of Eddie Jones and Steve Smith might confuse some people who also watched their careers unfold in the 90s/early 00s. My impression of both is high-IQ and team oriented players. Smith helps you spread the floor, and at his best he could turn up his scoring. Jones is super active, doesn't dominate the ball, spreads the floor to a degree (he liked the corners, like Marion) and is a heck of defensive 2-guard.
Both were all-star level players for a number of years: Smith, from about 93-99 (knee injury) and Jones from 97-04 (he faded a bit at the end there IMO though). If you believe them to be consistent All-Stars who fit well on a lot of teams as secondary options, that's really good longevity at this point. Then you check out the In/Out numbers:
In 1999, Jones was traded from the Lakers to the Hornets. LA was a +5.3 with him. They were a +1.5 teams without him (20 game sample). Charlotte exploded after the trade, going from a -4.7 team without Jones to a +2.9 team with him (20g sample). The next year, Jones missed 10 games and the Hornets were -6.8, but +4.6 with him (+11.4 net). In 2001, he missed 19g and the team was +3.0 with him, +0.4 without him. Even in 2003 in Miami, the Heat were -8.9 in 47 games without Jones and -2.2 with him.
E. Jones CHA 1999 (20g) 7.6 to 2.9
E. Jones LAL 1999 (30g) 3.8 to 5.3
E. Jones 2000 (10g) 11.4 to 4.6
E. Jones 2001 (19g) 2.6 to 3
E. Jones 2003 (35g) 6.7 to -2.2
Large samples. 3 different teams. He's even the "alpha" on the crummy 03 Heat team and shows signs of the old, "take a really horrible team close to .500" performance that so many superstars have shown (eg 03 McGrady, 06 Kobe). His career SIO is +4.3, which is in the top-20 in my DB, next to Rodman, Thurmond, T-Mac and J-Kidd. Jones, FTR, was named NBA Player of the Month in 1997, which is something that I always take note of (do that twice, or maybe 3x in a year and you're basically the MVP).
Smith's +/- numbers aren't as impressive, but he also has a history of big playoff performances and increasing his output when needed in the postseason.
In 94 he has a great first 3 against Atlanta but fizzles out in G5. (Rice also stunk in that game) -- 94 Heat were the 5th best offense in the league thought with Rice and Smith.
In 96 he jumps his scoring to 21 pgg (56% TS), again with 3 big games to open the first round.
In 97 he has a good duel with Grant Hill -- I believe 97-98 was Smittie's peak -- and before an off shooting night in G5 was averaging 22 ppg on 63.8% TS. (That was a balanced team and Smith didn't overshoot in G5.) Much like Reggie Miller in 98, he was flustered by the greatest perimeter duo in history in the next round vs Chi.
In 98, Smith had another duel, this time with Glen Rice. He dropped 35 in G5 and 27 in the elimination game -- a huge statistical series. It was even more impressive to watch, since they played at an 83.6 pace, meaning Smith's per 75 scoring rate was 26.7 pts in the series. (66% TS) Really, that's no joke, and he was a really nice passer too (could play the point).
His In/Out numbers:
S. Smith 1993 (34g) 3.4 to 0.3
S. Smith 1997 (10g) 4.7 to 6
S. Smith 1998 (9g) -1.8 to 3.3
S. Smith 1999 (14g) 5.9 to 4.6
)
(And in Wilkens' case, I don't think he's going to make my final cut.)
