Best player on the Celtics

[ahonui06]

Rondo

[drza]

This is why KG has these expectations:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... the-rescue

Heat can't up match up big man for big man
It is obvious that the Heat have been at a clear disadvantage underneath the basket since Bosh has been sidelined. Going against trees like the Indiana Pacers' Roy Hibbert and the Boston Celtics' Kevin Garnett, the Heat have struggled to overcome size in the paint. Believe it or not, the Heat have been outscored when those 7-footers have anchored the court since Bosh went down.

Check out these postseason numbers (Note: Hibbert's numbers are post-Game 1 after Bosh's injury):

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Miami's score margin, Garnett on the floor: minus-19 in 153 minutes (minus-6.0 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin, Garnett off the floor: plus-25 in 49 minutes (plus-24.5 per 48 minutes).

Miami's score margin, Hibbert on the floor: minus-30 in 166 minutes (minus-8.7 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin, Hibbert off the floor: plus-60 in 74 minutes (plus-38.9 per 48 minutes).

Now let's put it all together:

Miami's score margin with Garnett/Hibbert on: minus-49 in 319 minutes (minus-7.4 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin with Garnett/Hibbert off: plus-85 in 123 minutes (plus-33.2 per 48 minutes).

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Let that marinate for a second. Ever since Bosh has been in street clothes, the Heat have been outscored by 7.4 points every 48 minutes with the opposing elite 7-footer on the floor. But when he goes to the bench, the Heat feast like starving vultures. With Hibbert and Garnett off the floor, the Heat have blown out the competition by an average of 33.2 points every 48 minutes.

That is a swing of 40 points. That is also absurd.

What this tells us is that the Heat haven't been able to figure out how to deal with the 7-footers. They have just been incredibly opportunistic when Garnett and Hibbert check out of the game. James and Wade have attacked rabidly when the reserves check in, but when the opposing team's anchor patrols the paint, they haven't found consistent answers. Actually, they're just getting by.

That's actually a very nice counter. But again, it's the totality of the impact with Garnett that sets it apart. Both the degree, and the combination of ways that it's unique.

*The team's not just doing better with him than without him (as you'd expect with weak big man depth)...they're showing the largest defensive on/off impact that as far as I know is unprecedented in the decade-plus that we've had access to.

*In the comparison with Hibbert, it goes to what I pointed out before about separating a player from his teammates. On the postseason Hibbert had excellent on/off +/- splits (+15.75), if only in two rounds. BUT. When you look at the entire Pacers' team, you see that it wasn't just Hibbert...the entire starting 5 had huge on/off splits (David West at +36, George Hill at +30, Granger at +29, and George at +23 in addition to Hibbert's +16). Similarly, all 4 other Pacers starters measured out with higher marks on both offense and defense than Hibbert. Their +/- results this postseason suggest a dominating starting unit, much more-so than a dominant player. So while it worked for the angle that the author was taking about the Heat, I don't think he can really separate Hibbert's impact from that of his fellow starters to the extent suggested (and yes, going back to the previous conversation, when the numbers are close and overlap over shorter time periods, THAT'S when sample size becomes much more important).

Meanwhile, for the Celtics, the exact opposite is true. Garnett's overall on-off of +43.5 is FAR AND AWAY the biggest mark on the team (Rondo's at +4.3 overall) and still leads the NBA this postseason. And I already pointed out that his +32.7 on defense alone is way, WAY larger than his teammates and also way, WAY larger than anyone else in the league right now (Duncan is second at 16.3 on defense).

When you look at the degree to which KG is putting up ridiculous marks while also clearly separating his impact from that of his teammates, it paints a strong and unique picture to date. We'll see how it shakes out from here.

[bballcool34]

Oh c'mon dude. The biggest thing holding him back is his shooting ability not some mental thing.

Yeah, I agree with that. Where have I said differently? The mental aspect part is that he doesn't shoot enough which actually hurts the Celtics more at times than if he shot and missed. My point was that when he's on his game, the Celtics offense is at it's best and the Celtics as a whole are at their best because the defense for the Celtics is usually there.

And, it;s usually there because of Garnett of course who as I said, is their most important and impactful player.

I just don't like the "Rondo overrated theme" or the other extreme posts made by bastillion for example because I don't think it holds true in the playoffs where the Celtics struggle to score against certain teams that can limit Pierce and Garnett on isolation shots---the Heat for example can do this. There is no team that can completely limit Rondo in the same way though because he can always drive and dish whereas an older Pierce and Garnett are more dependent on the defenders guarding them than Rondo in terms of isolation scoring (Garnett can always can get the open jumper but that's often a result of Rondo's pick and roll so not really an isolation play).

Just look at the game against the Heat last night--- Garnett was terrible offensively for a stretch shooting crazy jumpers because our offense was not running through Rondo from the top, with the result that the shot clock went down, we had no creators with Rondo on the bench, and Garnett had to shoot a contested shot. The difference between their first half offense and second half offense is night and day--- and a factor in that is the way Rondo plays/whether the offense goes through him (as well as the defensive pressure).

[ElGee]

Probably will have a blog post on this topic up in a bit, but some things to consider:

-making a really bad offense into a below mediocre offense isn't really noteworthy to me
-Rondo can't elevate an offense the way Nash, Paul, James, etc. do because he *doesn't pressure the defense constantly* the way those players do.
-he can't constantly pressure the D because he cannot shoot the basketball
-his pinpoint passes have some solid value, but they do not have the same value as someone creating wide open shots and layups constantly.

And if you say "he does do this," the point is, he very much doesn't do this at the same rate as other top players (he has the largest discrepancy between ast/100 and Opportunities/100 of any player I've tracked).

On top of that, he's playing much better this PS, especially in this series. If he played like he did the last 3 games all the time, then yes, I would consider him an elite PG. This is someone who is way more aggressive and focused against elite teams, and the way he's played in the last 3 games isn't how he always plays.