#1 Highest Peak of All Time (Jordan '91 wins)

[lorak]

But you do ;]

How am I ignoring it though? I'm giving context. Magic scored on ridiculous efficiency (>100% TS) in game 1,

So why not to throw away G2 which was clearly also aberration for Magic?

And TOVs was reasult of MJ's man to man D or Pippen's help D?

Combination of the two. Magic would get stripped by Jordan plenty when he posted him up.

Plenty? How much exactly?

I am not saying SPM is gospel

But SPM was the only thing you use to prove Duncan > Hakeem.

And as wee see SPM undervalues defenders (as all box score based metrics do), also +7 SMP isn't necessary better than +6 SPM if 7 SPM was vs Collins, Smits or Ilaguskas and 6 vs Ewing. Why you don't look at such things? It doesn't matter that Hakeem individually destroyed one of the best centers of all time the way no one ever did to player such caliber? And at the same time he was focal point of the offense against one of the best defensive teams of all time.

[Josephpaul]

Kareem 71 , the only championship for the bucks 2822 total points in the season, when using PER that equals . In the finals he avg 27PGG 18.5REB a clean sweep of Boston bullets who had 2 HOF. He also beat a laker team that had Wilt , Baylor , Gail goodrich , Jerry west to get to the finals. For these reasons I think his peak seasons is the all time Peak.

71 numbers re edited
TS% 60.6 regular season
TS % 54.8 Playoffs
Point total 2596 , 31.7 PPG On 57.7 FG%
TRB 1311 16.0
PER Reg 29.0 / 25. 3 Playoffs
Only lost 2 games against in his playoff run.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIL/1971.html

[ardee]

Kareem 71 , the only championship for the bucks 2822 total points in the season, when using PER that equals 31.1 on 57.7 FG%. WS was at 25.4 . In the finals he avg 27PGG 18.5REB a clean sweep of Boston bullets who had 2 HOF. He also beat a laker team that wilt , Baylor , Gail goodrich , Jerry west to get to the finals. For these reasons I think his peak seasons is the all time Peak.

You've got the numbers all mixed up.

[lorak]

There's more. The Sixers also had a Defensive Rating of 94.6 (according to ElGee's blog). That was only a shade worse than Thurmond's Warriors (by 0.4 points), and a couple of points behind Russell's Celtics. So he was having the GOAT offensive season, and at the same time was having a MASSIVE defensive impact.

Wilt's defensive impact that year is overrated. And your numbers are wrong. 76ers DRTG was -1.1; Celtics -4.6 (but it was Russell's first year as a coach and he clearly struggled with adjustment to player-coach role); Warriors -3, but Thurmond missed a lot of games.
So despite having great supporting cast (Jackson was probably the best defensive big in the NBA after Thurmond and Russell) Wilt wasn't able to lead 76ers to very good defensive results.

The Playoffs get even more ridiculous.

(and bunch of box score numbers]

It was discussed many times on this site that Wilt's box score numbers didn't translate to team success. Why we should think 67 season was any different? I men, he obviously was better than during his high volume scoring years, but no 1 peak of all time? I really don't see that kind of impact.

It's worth noting that after Chamberlain left the Sixers in '68-'69, they dropped 7 games in the win column and were eliminated in the first round against the Celtics.

Jackson was injured in '69.
And in '68, WITH Wilt, they also lost to Celtics.

Anyway, Wilt clearly had big positive impact on 76ers, but years before and after him don't show GOAT peak level impact. 1967 season is one of these Chamberlain's myths, but it's easier to believe this one because he finally won something and played more team ball than ever. Add great box score numbers (as always) and GOAT season myth is created. But in reality his impact wasn't that great that year, I honestly don't think it was bigger than Walton '77...

[Josephpaul]

Kareem 71 , the only championship for the bucks 2596 total points in the season . In the finals he avg 27PGG 18.5REB a clean sweep of Boston bullets who had 2 HOF. He also beat a laker team that had Wilt , Gail Goodrich to get to the finals. For these reasons I think his peak seasons is the all time Peak.

71 numbers re edited
TS% 60.6 regular season
TS % 54.8 Playoffs
Point total 2596 , 31.7 PPG On 57.7 FG%
TRB 1311 16.0
PER Reg 29.0 / 25. 3 Playoffs
Only lost 2 games against in his playoff run.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIL/1971.html

Fixed.

[mysticbb]

And as wee see SPM undervalues defenders (as all box score based metrics do), also +7 SMP isn't necessary better than +6 SPM if 7 SPM was vs Collins, Smits or Ilaguskas and 6 vs Ewing.

SPM is adjusted for the strength of the opponents. Obviously not for specific players vs. players, but in average it works as good as any metric which is adjusted for the strength of opponents.
It also does not undervalue defenders per se, but has obviously trouble assigning the correct value to the players, if the boxscore doesn't collect the stuff they are doing on defense. Thus, I don't see how you can use that flaw in a comparison between Duncan and Olajuwon.

The overall combination of production and efficiency (nothing else is SPM) based on boxscore stats does not imply that Olajuwon was superior to Duncan. And implying that Olajuwon had an advantage in terms of non-boxscore metrics vs. Duncan seems really laughable. Matter of fact is that the Rockets performed incredible well during the 94 and 95 playoff run.

Why you don't look at such things? It doesn't matter that Hakeem individually destroyed one of the best centers of all time the way no one ever did to player such caliber? And at the same time he was focal point of the offense against one of the best defensive teams of all time.

Because Olajuwon did not do that alone. One thing you will notice during the games is that the Rockets double and triple teamed the opponents center, while the opponents did not do that. Why? Because the Rockets went nuts from the 3pt line and the opponents were afraid to double and leave the perimeter open. The Rockets just ran their offense really well, which made Olajuwon's job rather easy on offense.
Take the 1995 finals against the Magic for example. O'Neal outplayed OIajuwon in basically every 1on1 situation.

Olajuwon did not have a higher peak than Duncan, it is neither seen in the games nor is it seen in the data we have. And impying that Olajuwon could have been some sort of greater "intangible" player than Duncan sounds really, really weird.

[ThaRegul8r]

Alright, so right off the bat, here's what's on my mind:

When I think of the great peaks in history, I think of 3 guys: Shaq, Jordan, and Wilt.

However, it's also worth noting that from a pure team lift perspective, I don't think any of those guys ever lifted truly weak teams to great heights. When I think of that accomplishment, I think of Erving and LeBron. I'm expected to be persuaded to pick guys other than these two for the first spots, but we'll see.

With any of this stuff, if you'd like me to expound, let me know, I'll mix it in with the rest of my bloviation.

Can we consider Dr J's 76 season in this project? Just wondering. He was god like that season. Perhaps the greatest all-around season overall.

I don't have time to go off on Erving's '76 season right tonight, but suffice to say we saw in the very next year what that supporting cast would do without him in the merged league, and what the team he beat in the finals would do in that NBA. If you're looking to compare his season to other all-time seasons, it's not hard to get an estimate of his lift. And if you're going by box score stats, you can extrapolate there as well.

I'd actually meant to discuss Erving's 1975-76 season. I have '75-76 Erving on one of my all-time teams, and was thinking about that season in regards to this project. I wanted to put some stuff out there and see what other people have to say to get an idea of where I want to rank that season overall among the GOAT seasons.

I think one useful thing though is for people to put aside preconceptions and attempt to evaluate each season objectively. Many people already have their minds made up and their intent is solely to switch everyone else to their way of thinking rather than actually having an open discussion about it.

[lorak]

Why you don't look at such things? It doesn't matter that Hakeem individually destroyed one of the best centers of all time the way no one ever did to player such caliber? And at the same time he was focal point of the offense against one of the best defensive teams of all time.

Because Olajuwon did not do that alone. One thing you will notice during the games is that the Rockets double and triple teamed the opponents center, while the opponents did not do that. Why? Because the Rockets went nuts from the 3pt line and the opponents were afraid to double and leave the perimeter open. The Rockets just ran their offense really well, which made Olajuwon's job rather easy on offense.
Take the 1995 finals against the Magic for example. O'Neal outplayed OIajuwon in basically every 1on1 situation.

I'm talking about 1994 finals, when Olajuwon defended Ewing mostly 1on1, without much help and whole Knicks team was focused on Hakeem and double and triple teaming him (and that opened spots for Hakeem's supporting cast)

Olajuwon did not have a higher peak than Duncan, it is neither seen in the games nor is it seen in the data we have.

Data? You mean SPM? The same SPM which for example thiks Booxer is very good defender? Or that 2009 LeBron should be unanimous no 1 pick in this project?

And games... look, I see it completely different than you. Hakeem dominated great player like Ewing and overall faced greater competition (Barkley, Malone for example). Duncan achieved his numbers against poorer competition in the paint and even if he was facing defenders comparable to Ewing (for example Collins) he still didn't have to do as much on defensive end as Hakeem because obviously Collins was no threat on offense.

[mysticbb]

Data? You mean SPM? The same SPM which for example thiks Booxer is very good defender? Or that 2009 LeBron should be unanimous no 1 pick in this project?

Seriously, we are NOT talking about Boozer. And the metric does not per se thinks he is good defender, just that with the used algorithm his overall impact would be split like that. It is unfortunate that elements from help and team defense can't be included, but unless you think that Olajuwon was an incredible better team and help defender than Tim Duncan, your point is completely useless. In terms of production+efficiency in comparison to the league average Duncan was better than Olajuwon. Now, I really don't see any reasonable argument which would make me think that Olajuwon's impact exceeded Duncan's, because Duncan was constantly among the very best in terms of +/- ratings as well.

And James in 2009 has an awesome argument besides SPM in order to be picked as the #1 for that project. His peak level in RAPM is also higher than for anyone else during the time span we have. So, I don't know exactly what you want to argue here.

Duncan achieved his numbers against poorer competition in the paint and even if he was facing defenders comparable to Ewing (for example Collins) he still didn't have to do as much on defensive end as Hakeem because obviously Collins was no threat on offense.

What are you talking about? Duncan defended Martin for the most part and vice versa. Seriously, bringing up Collins here screams like a big agenda ...

[lorak]

I think one useful thing though is for people to put aside preconceptions and attempt to evaluate each season objectively. Many people already have their minds made up and their intent is solely to switch everyone else to their way of thinking rather than actually having an open discussion about it.

And that said guy who voted 2 hours after this thread started, before any discussion started, without any explanation.

[PTB Fan]

However, it's also worth noting that from a pure team lift perspective, I don't think any of those guys ever lifted truly weak teams to great heights. When I think of that accomplishment, I think of Erving and LeBron. I'm expected to be persuaded to pick guys other than these two for the first spots, but we'll see.

With any of this stuff, if you'd like me to expound, let me know, I'll mix it in with the rest of my bloviation.

Can we consider Dr J's 76 season in this project? Just wondering. He was god like that season. Perhaps the greatest all-around season overall.

Ah, yes, I'm sorry I took that as a bit of a given, but I should make clear:

When I refer to the NBA, I'm referring to all seasons by leagues that have been merged in to what is now called the NBA. So that includes the ABA, the BAA, and the NBL.

Alright.. thanks for the heads up.

[lorak]

[

And James in 2009 has an awesome argument besides SPM in order to be picked as the #1 for that project. His peak level in RAPM is also higher than for anyone else during the time span we have. So, I don't know exactly what you want to argue here.

So why people don't vote for LJ?

What are you talking about? Duncan defended Martin for the most part and vice versa. Seriously, bringing up Collins here screams like a big agenda ...

So it's worse for Duncan, because his production was achieved against worse defender (Collins was better defender than Martin)

[mysticbb]

So why people don't vote for LJ?

Why do you ask me?

So it's worse for Duncan, because his production was achieved against worse defender (Collins was better defender than Martin)

So, you admit that you haven't seen Duncan play during the 2003 finals, but you are sure that Collins in 2003 would have been the better defender against him than Martin? Seriously, Martin was better defending the mobile bigs like Duncan than Collins. And on the other end Martin was much better offensively than Collins. No idea how you want to spin that against Duncan here.

And my metric adjusts for the strength of the opponents. The 1994 Knicks are stronger, thus Olajuwon's numbers were pushed more than Duncan's.

[PTB Fan]

What about Elgin Baylor's 62 season? Yes, he lost in the Finals to the Russell led Celtics but his team went down with a fight. It's not statistically the most superior one, not the most accomplished one for sure (no awards at all, expect All-First Team honors and All-Star appearance) neither a winning one yet it was still amazing. Baylor was amazing this season, 38/19/5 without practicing and going from DC to the arenas they played and vice versa.

The difficulty of playing on the level he played is nothing short of spectacular. He elevated himself in the playoffs and went off in the Finals. He averaged 40.3 points and 17 rebounds (or 17.8, I don't have the data for one game) on impressive efficiency back than, had that amazing 61/22 Game 5 performance and finished the last one with 41/13.

I'm not saying that Baylor's 62 season should be regarded as the greatest, but just to get the needed respect that it deserves and to be included in the discussions after like the fifth top peak or so later on.

[therealbig3]

I think it's clear that out of the players who we have a lot of data for, LeBron has the highest peak. Now, we do have SPM data for 00 and 01 for Shaq, but no RAPM, and his SPM is quite good anyway.

Guys whose peaks we have a lot of data for: Duncan, Kobe, Garnett, Dirk, Wade, etc; guys who peaked around or after 03/04ish. And I think we're all in agreement that LeBron's peak was superior to any of their peaks.

So anyway, I don't think it's a contradiction to go with Duncan over Hakeem based on the numbers, but then go with Wilt or Jordan or even Shaq over LeBron, because we don't actually have the numbers for those guys, so there's nothing to contradict.

[PTB Fan]

Another thing I have to ask is if I'm the only person who sees 67 Wilt as a healthy, high minute playing 77 Walton on steroids? I've recently been trying to find out more about Bill (for this thread) and he's shot up my list peak wise

Wilt was indeed like a taller and more athletic Bill Walton in '67. Can't ignore Bill who was amazing in the '77 season...

"Bill Walton has been our leader all the time" said Portland coach Jack Ramsey. He's our team captain in every sense of the word. There is no better player, no more co-operative player, no better person than Bill."

"Shue said: "Bill Walton is the best player for a big man who has ever played the game of basketball. We couldn't contain him. He dominated in the middle and that threw our us out of the game."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=fU ... lton&hl=en

[therealbig3]

BTW, Duncan in those Finals went up against a rotation of K-Mart (young, athletic, strong, quick...just an all-around excellent defender), Collins (excellent man defender), A. Williams (nothing special, but above average defender with solid athleticism), and limited minutes against Mutombo (no more needs to be said)...that was actually a pretty stacked defensive front court for the Nets. Now, the reason they got shat on by Shaq the year before was because they physically didn't have anyone that could handle Shaq. Duncan was not the same physical mismatch that Shaq was, so the NJ front court in 03 SHOULD have caused him a lot of problems, because they had a lot of solid defenders, including 3 elite defensive players in K-Mart, Collins, and Mutombo.

Duncan destroying that front court is a huge positive for him. No, it wasn't the same as the 94 Knicks front court, but it was far from trash. It was an excellent defensive front court, and the Nets as a team overall were elite defensively.

[therealbig3]

I expect Walton to be the bridge between KG/Dr. J and Kobe/T-Mac/Wade.

[PTB Fan]

BTW, Duncan in those Finals went up against a rotation of K-Mart (young, athletic, strong, quick...just an all-around excellent defender), Collins (excellent man defender), A. Williams (nothing special, but above average defender with solid athleticism), and limited minutes against Mutombo (no more needs to be said)...that was actually a pretty stacked defensive front court for the Nets. Now, the reason they got shat on by Shaq the year before was because they physically didn't have anyone that could handle Shaq. Duncan was not the same physical mismatch that Shaq was, so the NJ front court in 03 SHOULD have caused him a lot of problems, because they had a lot of solid defenders, including 3 elite defensive players in K-Mart, Collins, and Mutombo.

Duncan destroying that front court is a huge positive for him. No, it wasn't the same as the 94 Knicks front court, but it was far from trash. It was an excellent defensive front court, and the Nets as a team overall were elite defensively.

Great points. Nets got to the Finals because of Kidd and their defense. They were amazing in that regard. However, Duncan pretty much trashed them.

[lorak]

So, you admit that you haven't seen Duncan play during the 2003 finals, but you are sure that Collins in 2003 would have been the better defender against him than Martin? Seriously, Martin was better defending the mobile bigs like Duncan than Collins. And on the other end Martin was much better offensively than Collins. No idea how you want to spin that against Duncan here.

I have seen 2003 finals, but not multiple times like most of the finals since 1977, so my memory in that case could be misleading.

And do you have any proof that Martin was better at defending Duncan than Collins?

And my metric adjusts for the strength of the opponents. The 1994 Knicks are stronger, thus Olajuwon's numbers were pushed more than Duncan's.

Adjustment for strenght of the team, but not strength of the individual opponents. Really mysticbb, hold Ewing to 39 TS% and being focal point of the offense against so good defensively team like 1994 NYK isn't more impressive than domination on Martin and Collison frontourt?

And BTW, how do you explain that Manu was better (according to SPM) than Duncan in 2005 playoffs? Or Amare one year?

And I was talking about Boozer, because - if I understand that correctly - SPM player value is his offnsive production + defensive. So if SPM have problems with proper credit for defense, thus overall player's value might be wrong.
(And yes, I belive Hakeem was better defensively than Duncan. Pop's system makes Duncan looks better defensively than his true value)