#8 Highest Peak of All Time (Magic '87 wins)

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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#41 » by drza » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:29 am

Re: "Making teammates better"

This is a tangible ability (even if measuring it is difficult), and in many ways it's the opposite side of the coin from individual "dominance". Dominance normally gets the plaudits, but making teammates better is just as important and, when building a championship team, may be even more valuable.

I think that Russell, Garnett and Walton may be the GOATs when it comes to making teammates better on an elite level at both ends of the court.

Here is some of my reasoning for that statement:

drza wrote:
ThaRegul8r wrote:
ElGee wrote:-Think about Walton's defense. Is it the closest to Russell's?


"He can beat a rival team with passing, his speed, his shot-blocking, his rebounding, or simply his overall defense. Only ex-Celtics Bill Russell in recent years has intimidated rival shooters more often than Walton. Also, like Russell, Bill often makes better players of his teammates."
- Christian Science Monitor, Jun. 7, 1977


One of the things that I really enjoy about these projects is that spending months with other obsessive basketball nerds leads to further evaluation of aspects of the game that maybe haven't gotten the due that they deserve. And I think this is another potential area of amplification, with players like Russell, Walton and Garnett as prime examples of some of the best.

I hear talking heads say often in passing that "he makes his teammates better", but I've never seen that seriously examined or any attempt to quantify it. Usually it's point guards that are talked about in this way, as they are the ones tha have the ball in their hands and can theoretically maximize the use of the offensive talent on the team by the way they orchestrate things. Sometimes you'll hear of dominant scorers making the game easier for their teammates by drawing defensive attention, which allows their teammates to score easier. Similarly, traditional low-post bigs are said to open up the court for teammates on offense because defenses have to collapse on them, leading to open jumpers. And finally "spacing" has become a new offensive area getting attention, because a good long-range shooter pulls defenders out of the paint and opens up lanes for teammates to score easier.

While these are all useful things to look at on offense, it shouldn't be forgotten how much easier a dominant big man can make the game for his teammates on defense as well. A dominant defensive big can erase so many mistakes that it allows his teammates to go army and be all they can be. A terrible defender who might be good on offense can be played next to a great defender. A perimeter player can afford to take more chances and be more aggressive when he has help behind him. A slow-footed post defender can afford to just concentrate on his own man if he's playing next to another big that covers lots of ground. And the other players are able to spend more energy on offense or other aspects of their games, when they don't have to expend quite as much on defense or hitting the boards.

A great defensive big can be so valuable at making their teammates better...but ironically, because of the lack of defensive statistics (there's no such thing as a defensive "assist", for example) it is often somewhat overlooked. People know that a defensive anchor can be great for a defense...but maybe don't pay as much attention to how it might help the offense as well because it allows them to focus. I've seen that argument made for how Dirk's (or other high-efficiency offensive players') offense might help the defense, but I haven't seen it mentioned how a dominant defensive teammate can help the offense. But in a very real since, dominant defenders make their teammates better. And all of the historic-level defensive big men from Thurmond to Hakeem to DRob to Mutombo to Ben Wallace to Dwight Howard can make that claim.

But what separates Russell, Walton and Garnett from some of their dominant defensive brethren in the concept of "making their teammates better" is that they can help all aspects of their teammates' games, with offensive emphasis as well due to their passing and unselfishness. All are excellent passers for bigs and can run an offense from the high post, giving them an aspect of that PG-make-teammates'-offense-better contribution. Russell and Walton were noted for their outlet passing, which literally jump-started the offense and allowed their teammates to get easier buckets in a time period when the fast break was hugely important. And for Garnett in this era, he actually does all of the offensive "make teammates better" things that I mentioned above...he's run offenses like a PG, while provided a primary scoring threat, while acting as a strong post threat to collapse defenses, while also providing spacing as a big with 20-foot range. Duncan also fits in this category to an extent in my opinion, because while he never showed the ability to play full-time "point-big man" the way the other three have, he is also a very good passer with a versatile offensive game who can draw the defense but is seemingly completely unselfish in his desire to set up his teammates.

Anyway, this post maybe fits more in the lines of "things that I think about when making my evaluations" than it is a pure post on who I think the 4th best peak ever has been. But similar to the "portability" discussions, I think that it is an aspect of the game beyond box score stats that really does play a tangible part in producing championship caliber play.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#42 » by C-izMe » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:49 am

Am I the only one that thinks Duncan has the best PS left? Next to Dr. J I can't see an argument for any others (and Dr. J gets downgraded IMO for playing in the split league era).

Lebron was top level offensively but again he wasn't good defensively.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#43 » by Mean_Streets » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:55 am

Just an observer here. I can't believe Russell was put #3 here, I have him on my top 3 players of all-time list, but that is because of what he accomplished throughout his career winning 11 championships and I believe 5 NBA MVPs, but I don't think he belongs in the top 5 when it comes to greatest peaks. Just my 2 cents.

Walton, Duncan, Magic, & LeBron should easily take the next 4 spots in some order.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#44 » by semi-sentient » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:11 am

C-izMe wrote:Am I the only one that thinks Duncan has the best PS left? Next to Dr. J I can't see an argument for any others (and Dr. J gets downgraded IMO for playing in the split league era).

Lebron was top level offensively but again he wasn't good defensively.


Why wouldn't you see an argument for Magic's '87 post-season run? He had one bad game out of 18. ONE. His '87 Finals performances is up there with the best of them, including Jordan's '91 run.

How does he not have an argument in your eyes?
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#45 » by therealbig3 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:32 am

ElGee wrote:Can all the Tim Duncan voters explain why his peak is higher than Kevin Garnett's? Can they explain why they are voting for Duncan 03 and not Duncan 02? Can they do this without using isolated box score stats...because I don't find these things obvious at all.


I think it comes down to Duncan's skillset mattering more in the playoffs. Although generally Duncan is an inferior offensive player to KG, his offense is better in the playoffs against better defenses, because he is able to maintain his efficiency in general, while KG's scoring efficiency drops.

Let's compare the 04 Wolves offense to the 02 and 03 Spurs offenses:

02 Spurs: +2.5 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 103.7
03 Spurs: +1.8 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 101.9

04 Wolves: -1.0 (+3.0 RS) - Average DRating of 102.9

So the Wolves offense got worse (significantly), while the Spurs offense remained constant, despite playing comparable defenses.

Duncan personally averaged, per 36:

02 PS: 23.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 3.5 TOpg, .550 TS%
02 RS: 22.6 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .576 TS%

03 PS: 20.9 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.7 TOpg, .577 TS%
03 RS: 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .564 TS%

Garnett personally averaged, per 36:

04 PS: 20.1 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.4 TOpg, .513 TS%
04 RS: 22.1 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.4 TOpg, .547 TS%


Duncan's production got better in the playoffs, while Garnett's got worse...the Spurs offense stayed constant in the playoffs, while the Wolves' got worse. I personally feel that Duncan's and Garnett's personal levels of play have something to do with those trends.

I do understand that Cassell's injury in the playoffs in 04 was a big blow, and that's a huge reason why the offense suffered. Comparing the TS% in the regular season and playoffs of the Wolves' cast in 04 to the Spurs' casts in 02 and 03 (of the players that played double digit mpg):

02 Spurs PS: .512 TS%
02 Spurs RS: .537 TS%

03 Spurs PS: .511 TS%
03 Spurs RS: .539 TS%

04 Wolves PS: .537 TS%
04 Wolves RS: .526 TS%

It seems that the 04 Wolves supporting cast performed better than they did in the regular season offensively, and that they were better offensively than the Spurs supporting cast in the 02 and 03 playoffs. Also, it looks like the Spurs offensive cast got a lot worse offensively in the playoffs as well. Since the Spurs offense stayed the same from the regular season to playoffs, while the supporting cast played worse, I think Duncan stepping up his game can be credited as the reason why that happened.

I think this points to Duncan outperforming KG in the playoffs in their respective peak seasons, at least offensively. I think Duncan was better defensively too, which is why I would take peak Duncan over peak KG.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#46 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:44 am

ElGee wrote:I'm surprised he went that high, yes, but the previous post was about the voting process, not the result (it could have happened in the 15th thread and I'd say the same thing.) WIthout devolving into a top-100 argument, I'll just simply say that you continue to frame peak-longevity in a black-and-white way and not everyone sees it this way. (I'd suggest most people have a hard time with this issue, period, because they don't understand value added in a single year.)

I care about value added over a career, and there is no black-and-white "prime v out of prime" measurement for that. Miller's career is nearly twice as valuable as Walton's to me. But Wade's career is more valuable than Stockton's.

There are no rules about prime, post-prime, consistency, No. of years, etc. Some players are wonderfully consistent and it gets them over shorter-tenured guys. Others? Not so much. With Kareem, he was an MVP level player the second he stepped in the league (he was a top-5 player in the world IMO while still in college). He played at that level for 12 years. To me, Kareem's final 8 years are essentially identical in value to Bill Walton's career. Kareem has 71-74, 76-77 and 79-80 as 7 stellar years. If you view these years as close to peak Shaq, it follows you'd have Kareem as GOAT, probably with ease.


Well, I agree that stage of his career was similar in value to Bill Walton - my comparison for post prime Kareem would be wherever McHale and Pau's careers rank, which for most people is close to Walton

Not every Kareem year is equal to peak Shaq in value. If Kareem played as well as in 77 the rest of his playoff years he obviously would've been GOAT, but he definitely had some playoff years much less impressive than that.

As you said there are no rules when it comes to subjective rankings. Certainly someone is in the right to let however valuable 82-89 Kareem is, move a player they have ranked 9th or 10th all time in peak up to top 5. Someone is also not wrong to think getting the best player for that 12 year prime or w/e, is in all liklihood going to make a bigger difference than anything that comes after that, since virtually every team stops contending for real after their star leaves their prime, except for a situation like 80s LA where another top 10 of all time player replaces him. Another very key thing is that it seems like the biggest reasons people give the edge to Jordan and Russell over Kareem is they were more dominant in the playoffs. So it's not really "Is Kareem as good a player as Jordan", it's more like "Is 20 years of playoffs Kareem as valuable as 13 years of playoffs Jordan" and a lot of people are understadably enamored with what Jordan did to his competititors in the playoffs
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#47 » by semi-sentient » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:55 am

What about Duncan's supporting cast from a defensive perspective?

The Spurs weren't winning because of their offense. Truth be told they were very much below average overall in the playoffs from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, however, they were the best if you exclude the Suns who got bounced in the first round.

You can't ignore the pieces that Duncan had around him from a defensive standpoint. Parker was pretty athletic and played pretty well against Kidd in the Finals. Not suggesting that he had a massive impact, but he was clearly playing well against a perimeter-oriented PG. Then you had strong perimeter defenders such as Jackson and Bowen, along with Robinson manning the middle. While Robinson was past his prime, he was still a very good defensive player.

... and how about Ginobili, Stephenson, and Parker closing out games for the Spurs while Duncan was struggling?

They lost Game 1 against the Suns because he couldn't hit his FT's late. They lost Game 4 because he threw the ball away late. Against the Mavs in Game 1 he missed a couple of shots in the final 27 seconds while getting outplayed by Dirk which resulted in a loss. How about his flurry of late game blunders in game 2 against the Nets that resulted in a loss? Why was he subbed out late in game 3 with the Spurs clinging onto a 2 point lead (hint: he was a liability at the FT line)?

He had a great run, to be sure, but one of the best ever? Hardly.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#48 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:01 am

At this point I feel like as a group, we should make a pact to stop talking about...

- The ATL
- Players who just got voted in

And just concentrate on which seasons are on the board and the arguments for either of them
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#49 » by colts18 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:40 am

drza wrote:Re: "Making teammates better"

This is a tangible ability (even if measuring it is difficult), and in many ways it's the opposite side of the coin from individual "dominance". Dominance normally gets the plaudits, but making teammates better is just as important and, when building a championship team, may be even more valuable.

I think that Russell, Garnett and Walton may be the GOATs when it comes to making teammates better on an elite level at both ends of the court.

Here is some of my reasoning for that statement:


Can you say that Walton and Garnett are helping their teammates on offense better than Dirk? Dirk has consistently made his teammates better. Russell is not in this discussion because he is a net negative on offense. I'm sorry if I'm not impressed by average passing, low efficiency for bottom ranked offenses that played better offensively without Russell.

Here is what Dirk did for his teammates in his peak 2011 season (stats per 36 minutes):

Kidd:

Dirk on Court: 8.7 pts, .542 TS%, 9.3 AST, +6.8 on court plus/minus

Dirk off court: 8.3 pts, .442 TS%, 8.2 AST , -4.6



Marion:

On: 15 pts, .585 TS%, +6.2

off: 17 pts, .522 TS%, -6.8



Barea:

On: 16.4 pts, .538 TS%, +8.4

off: 16.8 pts, .528 TS%, -5.7



Terry:

on: 18.1 pts, .576 TS%, +11.8

off: 18.2 pts, .509 TS%, -5.6



C handler

on: 12.7 pts, .680 TS%, +8.3

off: 13.8 pts, .733 TS%, -1.3



Stevenson:

on: 11.8 pts, .568 TS%, +5.5

off: 12.7 pts, .521 TS%, -5.3



Haywood:

on: 8.1 pts, .545 TS%, +3.1

off: 9.4 pts, .515 TS%, -5.3


Even low minute players like Peja (.612 TS% with .497 TS% without) and Caron (.560 TS% with .480 TS% without) exhibited the same effect. Chandler was the only one who wasn’t affected by Dirk and he not so coincidentally had the best TS% season in history in New York.

After Duncan, LeBron, and maybe Dr. J get voted, Dirk's 2011 has just as much of a case as anyone left. HIs season is fairly similar to 77 Walton in that both missed time and their teams collapsed without them, then both guys played well in the postseason, then were underdogs in the finals as both teams fell down in their series (Blazers down 2-0, Mavs down 1.75-0).
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#50 » by therealbig3 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:01 am

semi-sentient wrote:What about Duncan's supporting cast from a defensive perspective?

The Spurs weren't winning because of their offense. Truth be told they were very much below average overall in the playoffs from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, however, they were the best if you exclude the Suns who got bounced in the first round.

You can't ignore the pieces that Duncan had around him from a defensive standpoint. Parker was pretty athletic and played pretty well against Kidd in the Finals. Not suggesting that he had a massive impact, but he was clearly playing well against a perimeter-oriented PG. Then you had strong perimeter defenders such as Jackson and Bowen, along with Robinson manning the middle. While Robinson was past his prime, he was still a very good defensive player.

... and how about Ginobili, Stephenson, and Parker closing out games for the Spurs while Duncan was struggling?

They lost Game 1 against the Suns because he couldn't hit his FT's late. They lost Game 4 because he threw the ball away late. Against the Mavs in Game 1 he missed a couple of shots in the final 27 seconds while getting outplayed by Dirk which resulted in a loss. How about his flurry of late game blunders in game 2 against the Nets that resulted in a loss? Why was he subbed out late in game 3 with the Spurs clinging onto a 2 point lead (hint: he was a liability at the FT line)?

He had a great run, to be sure, but one of the best ever? Hardly.


The numbers show that the Spurs were above average offensively in the playoffs though.

It's hard to quantify individual defense, but on a team level (only including the first 3 games of the Mavs series in 03):

02 Spurs: -6.5 (-6.8 RS) - faced average 109.2 ORating
03 Spurs: -8.0 (-3.9 RS) - faced average 105.7 ORating

So the defense in general got better (way better in 03). Not sure who to give credit to for that, but it's not like Duncan's defense regressed in the playoffs, and he was their anchor. He also didn't have D-Rob for 6 out of 10 games in 02.

Duncan definitely had excellent defensive help in 02 and 03...but what more can you ask that he does with that defensive help? They ended up being "best in the league" caliber defenses. And the offensive help around him might get underrated, but it certainly wasn't that impressive, and to have them playing above average offensively is impressive...especially when you consider that the offense didn't fall off in the playoffs against better defensive teams.

Since I was comparing it to the Wolves, let's compare how the Wolves did defensively:

04 Wolves: -5.0 (-3.2 RS) - faced average 106.9 ORating
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#51 » by semi-sentient » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:15 am

therealbig3 wrote:The numbers show that the Spurs were above average offensively in the playoffs though.


According to b-r.com, they were below average: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _2003.html

As for his defensive impact, it was huge, no doubt about it. I just didn't want this to turn into a "Duncan carried a bunch of scrubs" style debate. He had plenty of help on defense, and offensively his wings did an excellent job of closing out games when he struggled.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#52 » by therealbig3 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:28 am

semi-sentient wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:The numbers show that the Spurs were above average offensively in the playoffs though.


According to b-r.com, they were below average: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _2003.html

As for his defensive impact, it was huge, no doubt about it. I just didn't want this to turn into a "Duncan carried a bunch of scrubs" style debate. He had plenty of help on defense, and offensively his wings did an excellent job of closing out games when he struggled.


They were below average compared to all of the teams in the playoffs, they only played 4 teams in the playoffs that year.

I posted the numbers, using the regular season DRatings of the teams the Spurs went up against, the Spurs were on average +2.5 on offense in the 02 playoffs, and +1.8 on offense in the 03 playoffs. This is with his supporting cast playing worse and he himself playing better.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#53 » by colts18 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:37 am

therealbig3 wrote:I think it comes down to Duncan's skillset mattering more in the playoffs. Although generally Duncan is an inferior offensive player to KG, his offense is better in the playoffs against better defenses, because he is able to maintain his efficiency in general, while KG's scoring efficiency drops.

Let's compare the 04 Wolves offense to the 02 and 03 Spurs offenses:

02 Spurs: +2.5 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 103.7
03 Spurs: +1.8 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 101.9

04 Wolves: -1.0 (+3.0 RS) - Average DRating of 102.9

So the Wolves offense got worse (significantly), while the Spurs offense remained constant, despite playing comparable defenses.

Duncan personally averaged, per 36:

02 PS: 23.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 3.5 TOpg, .550 TS%
02 RS: 22.6 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .576 TS%

03 PS: 20.9 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.7 TOpg, .577 TS%
03 RS: 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .564 TS%

Garnett personally averaged, per 36:

04 PS: 20.1 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.4 TOpg, .513 TS%
04 RS: 22.1 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.4 TOpg, .547 TS%


Duncan's production got better in the playoffs, while Garnett's got worse...the Spurs offense stayed constant in the playoffs, while the Wolves' got worse. I personally feel that Duncan's and Garnett's personal levels of play have something to do with those trends.

I do understand that Cassell's injury in the playoffs in 04 was a big blow, and that's a huge reason why the offense suffered. Comparing the TS% in the regular season and playoffs of the Wolves' cast in 04 to the Spurs' casts in 02 and 03 (of the players that played double digit mpg):

02 Spurs PS: .512 TS%
02 Spurs RS: .537 TS%

03 Spurs PS: .511 TS%
03 Spurs RS: .539 TS%

04 Wolves PS: .537 TS%
04 Wolves RS: .526 TS%

It seems that the 04 Wolves supporting cast performed better than they did in the regular season offensively, and that they were better offensively than the Spurs supporting cast in the 02 and 03 playoffs. Also, it looks like the Spurs offensive cast got a lot worse offensively in the playoffs as well. Since the Spurs offense stayed the same from the regular season to playoffs, while the supporting cast played worse, I think Duncan stepping up his game can be credited as the reason why that happened.

I think this points to Duncan outperforming KG in the playoffs in their respective peak seasons, at least offensively. I think Duncan was better defensively too, which is why I would take peak Duncan over peak KG.

Yeah the Wolves offense consistently disappointed during KG's tenure:

99: +0.2
00: +2.6
01: -4.5
02: -2.2
03: -0.5
04: -1.2

That's an average of -0.9 come playoff time. Well below their above average marks in the regular season during that span
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#54 » by bastillon » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:06 am

Let's compare the 04 Wolves offense to the 02 and 03 Spurs offenses:

02 Spurs: +2.5 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 103.7
03 Spurs: +1.8 (+2.0 RS) - Average DRating of 101.9

04 Wolves: -1.0 (+3.0 RS) - Average DRating of 102.9


Sam Cassell.

Duncan personally averaged, per 36:

02 PS: 23.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 3.5 TOpg, .550 TS%
02 RS: 22.6 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .576 TS%

03 PS: 20.9 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 2.7 TOpg, .577 TS%
03 RS: 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.8 TOpg, .564 TS%

Garnett personally averaged, per 36:

04 PS: 20.1 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.4 TOpg, .513 TS%
04 RS: 22.1 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.4 TOpg, .547 TS%


Duncan's production got better in the playoffs, while Garnett's got worse...


opposition. Garnett played better against common opponents (03 Lakers, 04 Lakers).

Yeah the Wolves offense consistently disappointed during KG's tenure:

99: +0.2
00: +2.6
01: -4.5
02: -2.2
03: -0.5
04: -1.2

That's an average of -0.9 come playoff time. Well below their above average marks in the regular season during that span


does that take into account opp. defenses ? they were playing 2x Spurs, Blazers, Mavs, 2x Lakers, Kings.

It's hard to quantify individual defense, but on a team level (only including the first 3 games of the Mavs series in 03):

02 Spurs: -6.5 (-6.8 RS) - faced average 109.2 ORating
03 Spurs: -8.0 (-3.9 RS) - faced average 105.7 ORating

So the defense in general got better (way better in 03). Not sure who to give credit to for that, but it's not like Duncan's defense regressed in the playoffs, and he was their anchor. He also didn't have D-Rob for 6 out of 10 games in 02.

Duncan definitely had excellent defensive help in 02 and 03...but what more can you ask that he does with that defensive help? They ended up being "best in the league" caliber defenses. And the offensive help around him might get underrated, but it certainly wasn't that impressive, and to have them playing above average offensively is impressive...especially when you consider that the offense didn't fall off in the playoffs against better defensive teams.

Since I was comparing it to the Wolves, let's compare how the Wolves did defensively:

04 Wolves: -5.0 (-3.2 RS) - faced average 106.9 ORating


I don't get it. people keep talking about Duncan getting no help whatsoever from his teammates but it's generally understood that 03 Spurs had the best defensive supporting cast in history and obviously the reason why they won was the defense. so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me - if you admit he had "excellent defensive help" and the defense was the reason why they won the title, then why are you saying Duncan got no help from his role players ?
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#55 » by bastillon » Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:16 am

RAPM
02 Duncan 2.8 KG 1.8
03 Duncan 5.0 KG 6.3
04 Duncan 4.9 KG 8.0
05 Duncan 6.0 KG 4.4
06 Duncan 6.1 KG 4.4
07 Duncan 8.8 KG 7.0
08 Duncan 6.3 KG 8.1
09 Duncan 3.9 KG 7.4
10 Duncan 4.3 KG 4.5
11 Duncan 4.4 KG 6.5

10-year http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking
Duncan 5.8
KG 8.0
...
Manu Ginobili 6.1

take that for what you will
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#56 » by therealbig3 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:26 pm

bastillon wrote:Sam Cassell.


Which I pointed out, and the T'Wolves supporting cast was still more efficient offensively than the Spurs supporting cast.

And Cassell played 16 out of 18 playoff games, so it's not like he was gone for the whole playoffs.

bastillon wrote:opposition. Garnett played better against common opponents (03 Lakers, 04 Lakers).


I'm not really going to break it down any further than box score stats, but per 36:

03 Duncan vs Lakers: 25.0 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.9 TOpg, .575 TS%

03 Garnett vs Lakers: 22.0 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 2.4 TOpg, .539 TS%


04 Duncan vs Lakers: 17.8 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 4.0 TOpg, .534 TS%

04 Garnett vs Lakers: 19.3 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.7 apg, 3.0 TOpg, .518 TS%


Doesn't really seem like KG outplayed Duncan against the Lakers...and to be clear, I never said 04 Duncan was on par with 04 KG, KG was clearly better that year.

bastillon wrote:I don't get it. people keep talking about Duncan getting no help whatsoever from his teammates but it's generally understood that 03 Spurs had the best defensive supporting cast in history and obviously the reason why they won was the defense. so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me - if you admit he had "excellent defensive help" and the defense was the reason why they won the title, then why are you saying Duncan got no help from his role players ?


Where did I say Duncan got no help? You have to stop putting words in people's mouths.

I said he didn't get much offensive help, but I never denied he had a lot of defensive help. Also, the Spurs didn't ONLY win based on defense, because their offense was decent in 02 and 03. No, it wasn't more important than their defense, but you make them sound like the 2012 Celtics or something (all D, no O).

I was just pointing to the offense, because that's where I see the difference between peak Duncan and peak KG in the playoffs. Duncan was the better offensive player in the playoffs, it seems.

I also think Duncan's offense was being underrated in general. No, he's no Shaq or Kareem or Hakeem...but he was a very good offensive player, and he showed that he could carry a mediocre offensive supporting cast to above average, even when they played worse compared to the regular season (as it happened in 02 and 03).
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#57 » by semi-sentient » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:52 pm

therealbig3 wrote:I posted the numbers, using the regular season DRatings of the teams the Spurs went up against, the Spurs were on average +2.5 on offense in the 02 playoffs, and +1.8 on offense in the 03 playoffs. This is with his supporting cast playing worse and he himself playing better.


+2.5 on offense relative to what? I'm a little confused regarding the numbers you posted earlier.

Edit: OK, assuming that those numbers are relative to the dRtg of their opponents, can you give me a series by series breakdown? I'm curious to see if one series is perhaps skewing things overall given that it's a fairly small sample size.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#58 » by bastillon » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:17 pm

Which I pointed out, and the T'Wolves supporting cast was still more efficient offensively than the Spurs supporting cast.

And Cassell played 16 out of 18 playoff games, so it's not like he was gone for the whole playoffs.


Cassell was hobbling during the entire WCFs and got injured like midway through WCSFs. Cassell was basically the only good offensive player alongside KG that year so that had a huge impact. merely "pointing it out" is not enough. consider this:
05 Wolves w/out Cassell were -1.5 SRS (33g) +2.8 w/Cassell

the fact that Olowokandi/Hassell/Szczerbiak/Spree/Darrick Martin were more efficient than Parker/Manu/S-Jax/D-Rob/Malik Rose/Bowen speaks volumes about KG's abilities as a playmaker. as a matter of fact Garnett was actually playing point for long stretches of 04 WCFs. Duncan's supporting cast is getting underrated here.

I'm not really going to break it down any further than box score stats, but per 36:


why per36 ? we're not trying to measure their efficiency but overall production. nice try though. Garnett played better vs the Lakers both times. the difference was Duncan often had his guards to bail him out as it seemed someone would always step up and score 20+ on great efficiency. Garnett didn't get that kind of help in 04, particularly with Cassell hobbling or being out.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#59 » by lorak » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:21 pm

Dr Positivity wrote: I don't think it's necessarily true that Kareem's offensive impact was less than Lebron's. Kareem is putting up 35ppg .65 TS% in the 77 playoffs. His floor spacing is one of the best ever for a center, if not the best. He was getting called the 2nd best big man passer in the game by the late 70s behind Walton. IMO Kareem as a scorer > 2009 Lebron as a scorer, like a super version of 2011 Dirk was a better scorer than 2011 Lebron - the ability to have a super polished skill level is huge against lockdown defenses. Players who rely on their power are more likely to get exposed. Lebron also had the pound the ball while Kareem could fit off the ball. I think the question then is whether Lebron's playmaking made up for being a worse scoring option. That's definitely a debate that could go either way.



LeBron wasn't worse scoring option than KAJ:
LeBron '09: 35.3 PPG , 41.4 MPG, 61.8 TS%, 86.1 pace

KAJ '77: 34.6 PPG, 42.5 MPG, 64.6 ts%, 103.6 pacet

Huge difference in pace, so LeBron scored on higher volume and that explains lower efficiency.
Also James had to create more for himself, while KAJ partly relied on what others created for him.
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Re: #8 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Thur 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#60 » by Woodsanity » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:23 pm

09 Lebron though I am also leaning towards 03 Duncan. I will probably vote for Duncan next.
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