Westbrook and the Thunder

[SideshowBob]

I usually get APM from 82games since BBall Value went rogue and Sideshow made a threarly while ago with a link to a RAPM google doc. It was updated towards the end of the regular season last iirc.

82Games still has APM?? All I see is "simple rating"

[Dr Positivity]

Thunder actually impressed me by hanging tight with the Grizzlies. The roster without RWB just isn't that good. I would call the supporting cast Durant just lost with, worse than what Harden had on the Rockets. When Thunder closed out Rockets in G6 it felt like the less talented and sexy team stealing it because of experience.

If I was a Thunder fan I'd have my doubts about Ibaka and Thabo's contribution to a championship team. Their regular season production is fantastic because they provide both elite defense and use possessions at a highly efficient rate. But I wonder if they're George Karl Nuggets style of players, where the regular season's conditions and system, helps them pad some stats in a way that's not there in a playoff matchup.

[richboy]

A Top 10 player was replaced by Reggie Jackson... I would've been more interested if he were replaced by a guy like Mike Conley. Grizzlies winning the series was expected to happen, honestly. This series sort of reinforced that Kevin Durant needs a creator of some sort @ PG, because he's not capable of doing it like LeBron is... and that's what will always separate them as players.

The question more was - "Is Russell Westbrook maximizing OKC's offensive potential?", not "Is Russell Westbrook a net negative to OKC?"

The stat guys got exactly what they wanted and like usual will now change the argument. Lets look at the reality of what we just saw. It isn't like Reggie Jackson and Derrick Fisher were bad. Matter of fact there TS% at the PG spot is better than Westbrook. They had actually a pretty decent PER. They were not that far from what Mike Conley was as a regular season player. Add in the fact without Westbrook it gave Durant more opportunities. For the stat guys this was pretty much perfect.

So what went wrong. The stats said that Westbrook didn't effect Durant efficiency that much. In reality the only superstar that is near the top of the league in spot up jumpers suddenly saw no wide open jumpers. Was not getting those easy cuts to the rim. Simply put every possession was now hard work. Unlike in the past when he wasn't going he could just let Westbrook take over for awhile. He was now forced to continue shooting.

The idea never took into account how Westbrook changes the pace of the game. Watching this series made me think that Memphis would get beat in 5 games with Westbrook. That they never handled Reggie Jackson pushing up the ball quickly. The problem is Jackson does not attack as much as Westbrook. Which Westbrook energy is something special. I never saw OKC play without energy. It took by the second game without Westbrook OKC to start having lack luster energy to start a game. OKC played most of this series in the half court. The transition and early offense part of OKC was pretty much gone.

They really missed him defensively. He forces turnovers. No longer happening. He gets tough rebounds. He a great on the ball defender. Reggie Jackson was horrible in one aspect. He is one of the worst on the ball defenders I saw this year. Conley and Bayless got anywhere they wanted anytime they wanted. The previous series same with AAron Brooks and PB.

Stat guys also thought that Kevin Martin could come in and produce a lot more. That Martin was a 20ppg scorer with high TS in past years and without Westbrook he be allowed to become that as well. Honestly his year in OKC I'm wondering how exactly did Martin score in some other cities. He can't create his own shot. He a very good wide open shooter. But unless you have time to set screens for him all game he just not that great of a player.

Finally they pretty much ignored that Durant isn't Lebron. He not a dominate ball handler that going to score and create. Without Westbrook everybody struggled to find quality shot attempts. Westbrook led OKC in usage. Ignoring the fact that OKC is pretty much historic on offense and ignore the guy who handles the ball most of the time should be near criminal. But for some they are in belief that Durant is a GOAT offensive player. Not sure anymore.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Thunder actually impressed me by hanging tight with the Grizzlies. The roster without RWB just isn't that good. I would call the supporting cast Durant just lost with, worse than what Harden had on the Rockets. When Thunder closed out Rockets in G6 it felt like the less talented and sexy team stealing it because of experience.

No, the OKC cast is still very good even without RWB. He has Ibaka/Thabo on D. He's got KMart of the bench, and a good young player in Reggie Jackson.

Durant was just exposed, plain & Simple. 51.6% of KD's points were assisted during the season, and without RWB that dropped below 28%. It's different when you have to create your own shots.

[picc]

OKC would have definitely beat Memphis with Westbrook, in 5-6 games max imo. They went to the wire 5 straight times with a defunct offense, inept coach, and one player who could reliably create shots for the team and himself.

The series score isn't really indicative of how much better one team is than another. There have been teams swept that were closer to their opponent than teams that forced a game 7.

[NaturalThunder]

Thunder actually impressed me by hanging tight with the Grizzlies. The roster without RWB just isn't that good. I would call the supporting cast Durant just lost with, worse than what Harden had on the Rockets. When Thunder closed out Rockets in G6 it felt like the less talented and sexy team stealing it because of experience.

No, the OKC cast is still very good even without RWB. He has Ibaka/Thabo on D. He's got KMart of the bench, and a good young player in Reggie Jackson.

Durant was just exposed, plain & Simple. 51.6% of KD's points were assisted during the season, and without RWB that dropped below 28%. It's different when you have to create your own shots.

You just described an average supporting cast, at best. And how does this series, under those circumstances, expose someone?

[Vinsanity420]

A Top 10 player was replaced by Reggie Jackson... I would've been more interested if he were replaced by a guy like Mike Conley. Grizzlies winning the series was expected to happen, honestly. This series sort of reinforced that Kevin Durant needs a creator of some sort @ PG, because he's not capable of doing it like LeBron is... and that's what will always separate them as players.

The question more was - "Is Russell Westbrook maximizing OKC's offensive potential?", not "Is Russell Westbrook a net negative to OKC?"

The stat guys got exactly what they wanted and like usual will now change the argument.... LONG SNIPPET CUT OFF

All you're doing is defining why Westbrook is a Top 10 player, not explaining how he's a better fit than a pass first Point like Conley would be. Reggie Jackson isn't Russell Westbrook. Neither is Derek Fisher. KD is forced to create. He isn't with a real Point Guard.

They didn't miss Westbrook on D. Memphis was shooting at 38% tonight. They shot maybe 40% in Game 4. Conley isn't killing OKC with his shooting efficiency. It's his dynamo scoring that they missed.

Like I said in my original post, this series explained why KD can never be LeBron... he can't create. He can't be Bird either, for the same reason. However, he can still be part of an awesome O, that doesn't involve Westbrook's bonehead decision making.

[NaturalThunder]

OKC would have definitely beat Memphis with Westbrook, in 5-6 games max imo. They went to the wire 5 straight times with a defunct offense, inept coach, and one player who could reliably create shots for the team and himself.

The series score isn't really indicative of how much better one team is than another. There have been teams swept that were closer to their opponent than teams that forced a game 7.

See OKC's series against the Mavs and Lakers last year. Both had some nail-biting games that went to the wire; OKC even stole a game or two in each series. But, history tells us OKC swept the Mavs and knocked the Lakers out in 5 games. Both series were much closer than that, but 5+ years from now people will just remember "OKC sweep" or "OKC won in 5" and think they handled those teams with ease. And I'm sure you could find those types of examples from almost every year by teams that make deep playoff runs and/or win a championship. They might sweep an opponent, or just lose one time in a series, but at least two of the games could've gone either way and were in doubt until the final seconds.

And I agree about OKC winning with Westbrook. I've said it several times, and I'm admittedly a homer, but I think it's a 5 game series with Russ. Possibly 6, but I think OKC wins the first two at home, split in Memphis, and close it out at home in game 5. But it'd be one of those 4-1 series with several close games but, instead of being the ones that are having to claw back and pull-off a come from behind win all the time, the Thunder are the ones with late game leads. I mean even tonight, in the one game Memphis basically thoroughly dominated form the 2nd quarter through about midway through the 4th quarter, with Durant having far-and-away his worst game of the series, OKC still found themselves with the ball down 2 points, with 15 seconds to go.

[Vinsanity420]

Feels good to be right. The larger the timeframe, the more elation one feels upon realization.

Hopefully now we can take a step back from all of the advanced stats crap (I am by no means crapping on sophisticated statistical models, I trade for a living, but damnit basketball isn't baseball, cards, or the market).

.

I do the same for a living, and have to disagree. Hollinger proved it this year by replacing Rudy Gay with Tayshaun Prince... Prince is clearly thought to be inferior, and yet Memphis hasn't lost a beat (or dare I say, they're a little better!)

[sp6r=underrated]

Another point I wanted to make with Durant specifically, one of the confounding issues I see is how ridiculously well he retains his value. It may be reasonable to think that the nature of his skillset allows him to not just retain impact on strong teams well, but retain it almost in entirety. That's a GREAT thing, he might be just as valuable on a +0 team then a +5 team. But when he's playing on a +5 team, we're going to see that impact and think: "Wow! Imagine the kind of lift he could provide on a weaker team" and then instinctively adjust accordingly, when the reality is that he's basically not going to shift. In short, his insane ability to scale might internally cause us to overrate his actual base impact level. I don't know if that statement is 100% true, but I've been considering it all season long (while still remaining high on him).

Great post all around and you raise an interesting possibility here.

[Regulio]

I think it really sheds a new light on the "Durant a GOAT offensive player" line of thought that was getting popular some time ago on here. Really he still has miles to go. And people were starting to think he was at Jordan level offensively already. Well world is different when you don't have another superstar to draw defensive attention away from you and need to take over the game alone.
Anyway I am not hating on KD, he is an impressive player and will only get better, but there is still a lot of room for improvement. I think most of us overrated him quite a bit.

[therealbig3]

I'm basically in total agreement with Vinsanity420...Westbrook's critics (the intelligent ones, anyway) never said he was a bad player that HURT the Thunder, we argued that he was not helping them as much as he could. But he was definitely helping them. He's clearly a top 15 player in the league. And when you just remove a player of that caliber without replacing him with anyone decent, of course his team will struggle to fill that void.

This wasn't exactly a shocking result.

[D Nice]

Feels good to be right. The larger the timeframe, the more elation one feels upon realization.

Hopefully now we can take a step back from all of the advanced stats crap (I am by no means crapping on sophisticated statistical models, I trade for a living, but damnit basketball isn't baseball, cards, or the market).

.

I do the same for a living, and have to disagree. Hollinger proved it this year by replacing Rudy Gay with Tayshaun Prince... Prince is clearly thought to be inferior, and yet Memphis hasn't lost a beat (or dare I say, they're a little better!)

Every hoops head I know predicted they would get better. Prince is the perfect linchpin to a championship team, Rudy Gay is a guy who took touches away from better scoring players (Conley, Gasol Z-Bo) period. Go through my post history, I've been saying he's the 4th best player on that team for 2 years now.

Hollinger? HAH. Get me in the same room with that guy and let's see if he can even grasp a simple Time-Decay Options Expiration model. Please, the guy is fraud who invented useless stats composed of simple box-score data, weighted them any which way he chose, and packaged them in away that made people (read: haters) feel smart for now having some numbers that reconcile with their jaded notions, because the pre-existing data favored contemporary opinions.

PER. PER. PER. Jesus. Lol.

[richboy]

A Top 10 player was replaced by Reggie Jackson... I would've been more interested if he were replaced by a guy like Mike Conley. Grizzlies winning the series was expected to happen, honestly. This series sort of reinforced that Kevin Durant needs a creator of some sort @ PG, because he's not capable of doing it like LeBron is... and that's what will always separate them as players.

The question more was - "Is Russell Westbrook maximizing OKC's offensive potential?", not "Is Russell Westbrook a net negative to OKC?"

The stat guys got exactly what they wanted and like usual will now change the argument.... LONG SNIPPET CUT OFF

All you're doing is defining why Westbrook is a Top 10 player, not explaining how he's a better fit than a pass first Point like Conley would be. Reggie Jackson isn't Russell Westbrook. Neither is Derek Fisher. KD is forced to create. He isn't with a real Point Guard.

They didn't miss Westbrook on D. Memphis was shooting at 38% tonight. They shot maybe 40% in Game 4. Conley isn't killing OKC with his shooting efficiency. It's his dynamo scoring that they missed.

Like I said in my original post, this series explained why KD can never be LeBron... he can't create. He can't be Bird either, for the same reason. However, he can still be part of an awesome O, that doesn't involve Westbrook's bonehead decision making.

Actually you would have to show me why Conley is usually much better than what Jackson and Fisher was. If Conley so good why is Memphis offense so bad. Is Conley a guy that can create the kind of pace that Westbrook brings? Is he the type that can create open shots for guys. You know every defense is pretty much built to try to stop penetration. Conley is not close to Westbrook in terms of penetration. I've said this before. Watch OKC play. Westbrook has the ball at the top and 5 guys are looking at RW. They know you can't expect 1 player to guard him in space and keep him from the rim. Which opens up everything.

Honestly I'm amazed that people that consider themselves BBall fans say things like this. Kevin Mchale when Westbrook got injured said RW distorts the defense. LH and the Grizzlies haven't been defending Kevin Durant with Tony Allen in the past. Allen would guard Wsetbrook to keep him from penetration. Last year Tony Parker says RW is the head of the snake. You can't defend OKC unless you defend RW. Only Derrick Rose and Lebron James are maybe better at breaking down the defense. Yet here we are with someone saying Well maybe they be just as good with Mike Conley. So obviously destroying defensive schemes with penetration is no longer important. Instead lets just get an OK PG that might break down the defense a couple times a game. But in reality is going to just not make too many mistakes.

Jackson wasn't Westbrook. But he was comparable to what Conley is during the year. His PER 36 in the playoffs was 15 ppg 4 apg 48% FG 59% TS 15.5PER 111 Ortg with a 18 usage.He wasn't as good as Conley in the regular season but he wasn't that far off atleast on the offensive end.

[richboy]

What does OKC with Mike Conley remind me of.

How about

Conley
Thabo/Martin
Durant
Ibaka
Perkins

seems very similar to

Mo Williams
West/Wally Z
Lebron
Anderson V
Big Z

is that you Danny Ferry

[E-Balla]

I usually get APM from 82games since BBall Value went rogue and Sideshow made a threarly while ago with a link to a RAPM google doc. It was updated towards the end of the regular season last iirc.

82Games still has APM?? All I see is "simple rating"

Check the player page. It's at the bottom.


Also I just checked and Westbrook has a +4.5 RAPM, KD has a +4.0.

In APM KD has a +7.8 and WB has a +4.1.

Might've misspoke on the APM but I didn't check for a while.

[tsherkin]

Losing an AS-level player who handles such a huge proportion of your offense is never going to end well.

Westbrook has value, the only backlash came from people trying to say he was a good number one option or better than Durant. OKC has a stunningly simplistic offense that, when Martin craps himself in fear, doesn't work very well when you straight remove a critical player.

[Vinsanity420]

The stat guys got exactly what they wanted and like usual will now change the argument.... LONG SNIPPET CUT OFF

All you're doing is defining why Westbrook is a Top 10 player, not explaining how he's a better fit than a pass first Point like Conley would be. Reggie Jackson isn't Russell Westbrook. Neither is Derek Fisher. KD is forced to create. He isn't with a real Point Guard.

They didn't miss Westbrook on D. Memphis was shooting at 38% tonight. They shot maybe 40% in Game 4. Conley isn't killing OKC with his shooting efficiency. It's his dynamo scoring that they missed.

Like I said in my original post, this series explained why KD can never be LeBron... he can't create. He can't be Bird either, for the same reason. However, he can still be part of an awesome O, that doesn't involve Westbrook's bonehead decision making.

Actually you would have to show me why Conley is usually much better than what Jackson and Fisher was. If Conley so good why is Memphis offense so bad. Is Conley a guy that can create the kind of pace that Westbrook brings? Is he the type that can create open shots for guys. You know every defense is pretty much built to try to stop penetration. Conley is not close to Westbrook in terms of penetration. I've said this before. Watch OKC play. Westbrook has the ball at the top and 5 guys are looking at RW. They know you can't expect 1 player to guard him in space and keep him from the rim. Which opens up everything.

Honestly I'm amazed that people that consider themselves BBall fans say things like this. Kevin Mchale when Westbrook got injured said RW distorts the defense. LH and the Grizzlies haven't been defending Kevin Durant with Tony Allen in the past. Allen would guard Wsetbrook to keep him from penetration. Last year Tony Parker says RW is the head of the snake. You can't defend OKC unless you defend RW. Only Derrick Rose and Lebron James are maybe better at breaking down the defense. Yet here we are with someone saying Well maybe they be just as good with Mike Conley. So obviously destroying defensive schemes with penetration is no longer important. Instead lets just get an OK PG that might break down the defense a couple times a game. But in reality is going to just not make too many mistakes.

Jackson wasn't Westbrook. But he was comparable to what Conley is during the year. His PER 36 in the playoffs was 15 ppg 4 apg 48% FG 59% TS 15.5PER 111 Ortg with a 18 usage.He wasn't as good as Conley in the regular season but he wasn't that far off atleast on the offensive end.

Man, if you're going to compare Conley to someone like Jackson, I am not going to debate this any further. Conley's floor impact is in line with a Top 15 or 20 player in the league. You clearly don't understand what a guy like Conley brings to Memphis.

[richboy]

All you're doing is defining why Westbrook is a Top 10 player, not explaining how he's a better fit than a pass first Point like Conley would be. Reggie Jackson isn't Russell Westbrook. Neither is Derek Fisher. KD is forced to create. He isn't with a real Point Guard.

They didn't miss Westbrook on D. Memphis was shooting at 38% tonight. They shot maybe 40% in Game 4. Conley isn't killing OKC with his shooting efficiency. It's his dynamo scoring that they missed.

Like I said in my original post, this series explained why KD can never be LeBron... he can't create. He can't be Bird either, for the same reason. However, he can still be part of an awesome O, that doesn't involve Westbrook's bonehead decision making.

Actually you would have to show me why Conley is usually much better than what Jackson and Fisher was. If Conley so good why is Memphis offense so bad. Is Conley a guy that can create the kind of pace that Westbrook brings? Is he the type that can create open shots for guys. You know every defense is pretty much built to try to stop penetration. Conley is not close to Westbrook in terms of penetration. I've said this before. Watch OKC play. Westbrook has the ball at the top and 5 guys are looking at RW. They know you can't expect 1 player to guard him in space and keep him from the rim. Which opens up everything.

Honestly I'm amazed that people that consider themselves BBall fans say things like this. Kevin Mchale when Westbrook got injured said RW distorts the defense. LH and the Grizzlies haven't been defending Kevin Durant with Tony Allen in the past. Allen would guard Wsetbrook to keep him from penetration. Last year Tony Parker says RW is the head of the snake. You can't defend OKC unless you defend RW. Only Derrick Rose and Lebron James are maybe better at breaking down the defense. Yet here we are with someone saying Well maybe they be just as good with Mike Conley. So obviously destroying defensive schemes with penetration is no longer important. Instead lets just get an OK PG that might break down the defense a couple times a game. But in reality is going to just not make too many mistakes.

Jackson wasn't Westbrook. But he was comparable to what Conley is during the year. His PER 36 in the playoffs was 15 ppg 4 apg 48% FG 59% TS 15.5PER 111 Ortg with a 18 usage.He wasn't as good as Conley in the regular season but he wasn't that far off atleast on the offensive end.

Man, if you're going to compare Conley to someone like Jackson, I am not going to debate this any further. Conley's floor impact is in line with a Top 15 or 20 player in the league. You clearly don't understand what a guy like Conley brings to Memphis.

Wow. Conley is a top 15 to 20 player now. Please explain what Conley brings to Memphis. Up until this year they never been out of the second round. They were 17th in offense this year. Did Memphis even shoot 40% in this round of the playoffs. They were even worse on offense last year. 16th in offense the year before. He is yet to have an offense at the top half of the league. Your telling me he top 15 impact. Based on what? That he lit up Reggie Jackson.

I like how suddenly everyone on Memphis is great offensively except Tony Allen but they can't score. Marc Gasol is the best big man in the league but they can't score. Zach Randolph is the best PF in the league but they struggle to get to 90. Now Mike Conley is top 15 impact and there offense is horrible. On the other side Westbrook is a 2 man offense on a team that has been historic offensively. As one of the most productive players in basketball. There are maybe 3 players in this league that can get to the front of the rim and finish strong anytime you cover them with 1 man. Derrick Rose, Westbrook and Lebron James. You really need to know why he has huge impact. I mean seriously this game isn't that hard. No you need to enlighten me on why Mike Conley isn't just the flavor of the week.

[SideshowBob]

I usually get APM from 82games since BBall Value went rogue and Sideshow made a threarly while ago with a link to a RAPM google doc. It was updated towards the end of the regular season last iirc.

82Games still has APM?? All I see is "simple rating"

Check the player page. It's at the bottom.


Also I just checked and Westbrook has a +4.5 RAPM, KD has a +4.0.

In APM KD has a +7.8 and WB has a +4.1.

Might've misspoke on the APM but I didn't check for a while.

Ahh. No that's Net On/Off, not APM (they're completely different). It's also available onBBR's player pages, and its updated daily.