ATFL Western: (1) DHodgkins vs. (8) HeartBreakKid

[therealbig3]

I'll go ahead and vote:

HeartBreakKid wins this.

[Quotatious]

If I had both peak Stockton and KJ on my roster, I'd play them equal amount of minutes, and possibly rotate them as starters (like Robinson and Ewing were rotated on the Dream Team in '92 - one started one game, the other began the next game in the lineup from a tip-off).

24 minutes for both Stockton and KJ at PG would IMO be the most sensible decision you could make here.

[ronnymac2]

Nice teams guys. High-octane offense/trapping defensive scheme vs. Traditional Offensive Build/Big Physical Defense. Contrasting styles are always fun.

My judging style is to read the writeups and look at the roster build/minutes distribution first. 90 percent of the time, I have no clue who I think will win, so I need to write it out. My conclusion is based off of what I write.



So right off the bat, kudos to Mr. Wrestlemania for starting Stockton over KJ. It's the proper decision based on who else is in the starting lineups. Gervin and Erving put enough creative pressure on defenses without KJ. KJ really stands out as a second unit creator.

It's also nice to see Karl Malone with a competent offensive C. Felton Spencer, Mark Eaton, and Greg Ostertag were bad offensive players. Gilmore can catch interior passes from Malone/Erving and entry passes from Stockton and then finish efficiently. I see David Robinson having to cover a lot of holes, leaving Gilmore open to receive those passes.

"My second option will be what ever wing is guarded by Wilkins." It's simple. It's unforgiving. It's brutal. I like it.

I really see HBK's offense clicking. Most likely, Robinson/Webber defends that pick-n-roll well, but HBK clearly stated that if that occurs, he's using Malone in the post against Webber — a much better matchup advantage.

Rondo/Robertson/Spree should trap the hell out of HBK's team, and that's where the lineups where there are two of those guys and maybe Nique or Drexler could do some damage, especially when Bowen, a non-ball-handler, is in at guard. This is alleviated by having Erving/Gervin, but still, Rondo/Robertson/Spree/Drexler combine for about 10 steals per game. Pretty sick trap there.

Hodgey's offense is fun of course. I disagree with the notion that Isiah didn't come off screens. Isiah and Joe Dumars worked so well together because they were smart enough to understand who was hot and then feed the hot hand. Like Frazier/Monroe 15 years before, they could switch roles for quarters at a time. Drexler is a worthy enough ball-handler and passer where they can take advantage of this. I like it.

Robinson should be able to get his in isolation against the slower Gilmore. When the doubles come, he may have problems though. Not in love with the spacing of Hodgy's team.

Malone is a perfect cover for Webber. Whoever Gervin is guarding will light it up though. Drexler was a ferocious post player and amazing off-ball player, and with Gervin uninterested on defense, that spells trouble. Only so much Bowen can do in limited minutes. Honestly, I think Bowen is a bad matchup for Drexler's powerful midpost game anyway.

Oh, I see it now...Drexler cuts baseline as Webber delivers a no-look and bam....dunk. Very nice.

In the end, it comes down to this: DHodgkins has a bevy of great scorers, but most of them do their damage in the mid-range area. Isiah/Wilkens/Webber are merely OK off the ball. Drexler and D-Rob are great, but I mean...even the bench guys aren't opening things up for teammates. Rondo is one of the worst off-ball players in NBA history for a star, and Robertson and Spree were mediocre shooters. Walker shoots a lot, but I don't think that's what's best in an all-time matchup. That big, physical defense with Gilmore/Malone/Erving will really clog up the mid-post area.

I think HBK wins this in 5 games. He dominates in game 1 with precise execution and intense defense. Much closer in game 2, but a win for HBK. DHodgkins comes back with 143 points in a blowout win in game 3. It looks like a repeat of game 3 in game 4 with HBK down 12 in the first quarter, but the team calms down and wins a close one, then controls game 5 throughout in a seven-point win in game 5.

Winner: HeartBreakKid in 5

Ooohh, Oohh, Shaaawwnn!

[Texas Chuck]

Well, Im gonna vote for Nader apparently, but it won't stop me from voting for the team I remain convinced is better and thats Dhodgkins' team.

I think Gilmore might not even be able to stay on the court and if his plan was to bring in Bogut to soak up some minutes Im okay with that, but Laimbeer? Yuck. This version of Admiral is too athletic for Gilmore and obviously he cant guard Webber plus you'd want Mailman using his physicality on Chris since he shies away from it so much. So removing Gilmore for Laimbeer creates significant defensive problems against a team with such dyanmic and explosive scorers in Nique, Clyde and Zeke. I just think they are going to have a lot of trouble because they dont match up well and I strongly disagree with the idea that this version of Artis is a good matchup against David. He will be useful in this tournament since it appears HBK will advance, but not here and without him the defense isnt good enough.

On the other side, Webber will be able to guard Gilmore and if HBK wants to milk that mismatch well that just works to DHodgkins favor. And Camby's presence allows Admiral to be aggressive because he can provide much the same things defensively and on the glass. Doc is going to be a handful, but they have answers for everyone else, plus the clearest leader in Zeke. Just like the matchups better all around.

So its not a shutout anyway--- VOTE DHODGKINS

[bastillon]

My first take is that Admiral is getting overlooked for how clearly he would be the dominant factor in this series. His poor offensive reputation in the PS is highly over-stated. He rarely had any other quality options around him, still performed at a high level, and getting outplayed by prime Dream one time is hardly something to be ashamed of. Here he doesnt have to carry the team offensively, we know he's a guy who is willing to take a backseat on that end, and he is miles away the biggest defensive factor in the game.

He is definitely going to have an impact on Doc and Mailman and I think you can live with Gervin trying to beat you from the outside.

you are clearly wrong about D-Rob's offensive performances. if you think people only have a problem with his series against Olajuwon, check out how he performed vs Karl Malone and Mutombo. what really happened is D-Rob had fundamental flaws in his offensive game. he relied too much on garbage points, transition and offensive rebounding for his scoring. he was the perfect guy to light up weak opposing defenses but struggled mightily against stronger ones. Robinson played a lot of playoff games vs strong defenses and he was completely ineffective. D-Rob doesn't have a post-game with his back to the basket as far as I'm concerned.

I am questioning whether he can be the no. 1 option on a playoff team with any set of teammates, and particularly in this roster, where I think Isiah is a clear-cut best HCO player. he has much more shot creation skills than anyone on this roster. certainly better than Robinson or Drexler who were very limited go-to scorers. Isiah is much better than those guys as a HCO go-to option. I can't believe that is being questioned. anybody who has seen Robinson or Drexler should know about their limitations offensively and HCO go-to scoring is their greatest weakness.

now before making my vote I would like to point out several things:

we are talking about a Stockton-Malone team. they are offensive anchors of this team from what I've read. to me the key here is lack of Sloan to run his system. I don't think either of them could be equally effective without that system in what they were doing because both had offensive limitations that would be more exposed without Sloan. Sloan ran tons of plays where guys were coming off screens down low and Stockton was feeding the guy who got open, or who was in a good position for the entry pass. Malone was obviously the prime beneficiary of those passes. I don't think you can run that system as effectively without Sloan. Malone was a bad isolation scorer. his go to move was a fadeaway jumpshot and Webber could easily guard him 1 on 1 unless he got a deep post position on him. the thing about Malone's offense that most fail to realise is that if he didn't get a deep post entry pass, he often struggled from the field because of lack of go to scoring skills. Malone at his best is receiveing a pass close to the basket and defense is already out of position to stop him. but when Malone is facing a set defense which he is supposed to break down, he struggles. it's just that simple. the same exact thing happened with Stockton. his greatness weakness, and one that stopped him from being a truly great offensive anchor, is lack of breakdown abilities.

it needs to be highlighted that Sloan's system was about off-ball screens and player movement, which made things easier for both Stockton and Malone and could hide their weaknesses at times. the plays they ran the most were not pick and rolls or classic feed the big man 4 around 1 a la Shaq/Kareem/Hakeem. either Malone got a good position off-ball after a couple screens and Stockton fed him, or they were trying to isolate Malone like 15 feet away. when their off-ball screens weren't working, Utah's offense was god ugly. they were extremely predictable (to the extent where you would know what is the play they're gonna run next). I feel like both of them could be exposed without off-ball screens that Sloan used to perfection. neither Stockton or Malone have enough breakdown ability for a playoff type format, which is exactly why they were often struggling in the postseason.

now let's talk about Artis Gilmore. I used to overrate him in the past but DavidStern convinced me I was wrong about him. it took me a while to really get to know this player's game. he just doesn't get it. he has a bad basketball IQ on both ends and this is what really seperates him from other all-time great centers like Walton or Kareem (to use guys from his era). Gilmore had all the talent in the world to be much better but defensively he didn't have a motor of Olajuwon/Walton/KG to help out his teammates/defend pnr/contest shots all over the place. offensively his greatness weakness is turning the ball over. the way he struggled with his post game sometimes really makes you think about Dwight Howard (post-surgery Dwight). don't give me his TS% because it's meaningless to me. I know all about his numbers but sometimes guys can score in a variety of ways dropping garbage points on you all day (D-Rob was an absolute master at this). A-Train struggled to score against a set defense. he dominated once he caught a good, deep post entry pass because he was just too big to be denied so close to the basket. but again, in terms of breakdown ability, go-to scoring? terrible player. tons of turnovers, even mediocre scoring efficiency (his eff on isos was much worse than his overall numbers show you). defensively he was always a great man defender but struggled with his help defense, lacked motor, desire and basketball IQ.

those 3 together don't look to me like a great offense at all. there is no off-ball-screens-based system that Sloan ran (unless you want me to think they're gonna run it without Sloan, which would be... odd) which makes you rely more on their breakdown abilities, which they simply don't have. Artis Gilmore has absolutely terrible hands to catch passes from Stockton. I don't like their HCO at all. Erving doesn't help a lot either because he was more of a transition player and struggled at times with his HCO. this team has a bunch of guys that look good on paper but no real go-to scoring other than Gervin. btw, he should be no. 1 option offensively. Gervin is in a different league from Malone as a scorer to me.

to me this would be a very close game if we were playing starting 5s. they are great defensive teams, lack outside shooting, but with great inside scoring, I'd really need some time to think about this. but as it is what makes this matchup clearly in favor of HBK ibench of DHdgkins. I disagree with judges about his team makeup. there are issues with spacing, no doubt, but there are equal if not bigger concerns with the other team. but DHod has a bench that totally ruins everything for this team. I don't wanna be rude but how do you even select those scrubs? Rondo, Camby? seriously? Antoine Walker? this is the reason why I think he loses this matchup. just based on s5s, I think it would be close.

Vote: Heartbreak

[Texas Chuck]

you are clearly wrong about D-Rob's offensive performances.

I am questioning whether he can be the no. 1 option on a playoff team with any set of teammates, and particularly in this roster,

Just to clarify--I wouldnt make David the number 1 option in every matchup, but against the Gilmore/Laimbeer combo you better believe I would give him lots of touches because I just dont think those versions of those guys can guard him and I think you can get Artis out of the game which really hurts HBK.

Against a different opponent I could see David being a 3rd or 4th option easily allowing him to focus almost exclusively on being perhaps the best defensive anchor in this tournament.

[DHodgkins]

Against a different opponent I could see David being a 3rd or 4th option easily allowing him to focus almost exclusively on being perhaps the best defensive anchor in this tournament.

Unfortunately there will be no "different opponent" because people aren't seeing the light like you.

[O_6]

I feel like DHodgkins' starting lineup is getting a little underrated because the fit isn't ideal. I think Webber AND Wilkins may be overkill, having a better defender who doesn't need the ball as much would've been a good idea for atleast one of those forward spots imo. But Thomas/Drexler/Nique/Webber/Robinson is an impressive lineup even if you wonder how they'll share the ball on offense.

But I'm not a big fan of DHodgkins' bench. With all the top-end scoring talent with his first 5 picks, he made the right decision by targeting defensive players with his next 3 picks. But I feel like those 3 picks were all mistakes.

Robertson
Rondo
Camby

I'm just personally not a fan of those 3 picks for this team. I think they are all overrated defenders because of their numbers, and they are all questionable offensive fits on this team. Rondo/Isiah or Robertson/Isiah both feel like poor fits. Camby/Robinson also feels like a poor fit offensively, and defensively a stronger man defender is probably the better type of big to place next to Robinson.

And then you also go ahead and draft Antoine Walker who I didn't even consider for this project, hated that pick imo. I did really like the Sprewell pick though, he's a useful wing defender who can do some things offensively.

Looking at just the starting 5s, I really think it's a very tough call. But I just like HBK's supporting cast and bench a lot better. So I'd also go with HBK's team in this matchup.

[ElGee]

Hodgkins team is the team most likely to have players quit, get in a fight, or choke a coach. Basically, they are the 2002 USA team of this tournament -- a hodgepodge of individual talent that doesn't fit well together and whose skills are diminishing when put around other similar players.

How do you know they will not fit well together?

Players quit? Fights? Choke a coach?

My offense will be mostly D-Rob and Wilkins being leading scorers while Thomas, Clyde and Webber will get their fair share and being good off the ball/creating.

Robinson is the best player by far in this series imo. Led the league in PER in all three of his years.

Malone and Artis would beat up Robinson ... ok. That is why I have four other 20+ ppg scorers that could go for 40 on any given night. (especially drexler/nique if being guarded by Gervin)

I think they won't fit together because I've seen them play basketball.

Basketball isn't an additive game, it's an interactive one. You don't add up PPG, you distribute possessions. You're implying 4 20-point scorers gives you 80 points per game...it doesn't. Same goes with your rebuttal about assists. Your guys have assists because they have the ball a lot...there's only one ball to share when they all play together. (Drexler is a good passer and creator...but are Isiah, NIque and Webber going to give him the ball??)

Similarly, basketball isn't a series of 1-on-1 events. It's not about the 1-on-1 isolation result of my 1 vs. your 1, my 2 vs. your 2, etc. it's about, again, how they interact. You do have a number of guys that can go for 40 on any given night...the team that can go for an ORtg of 140 on a given night will crush you every time.

[HeartBreakKid]

Hm, I don't get how I am overrating Gilmore unless those statements are toward the other posters. I never said Gilmore would shut down or even do a good job of guarding Robinson. I just said he would lean on him and on offense do put backs type of offense. I don't think that is out of his abilities, wouldn't even be hard for Tyson Chandler to do that much.

I am well aware Robinson can beat Gilmore in isolation consistently, especially if he is facing up. Gilmore is just there to protect the rim and rebound, I know he is not Kevin Garnett.

The idea that Robinson is going to do that much damage to me offensively is perplexing. I'm sorry, but a center is not going to outscore a fantasy team with 2014 rules. My opponent has no 3 point shooters, is David Robinson to average 50 points a game for an entire series? Not saying my opponents other starters are scrubs, but they're no better scorers than the guys I have at the very least (obviously in opinion mine are better), and my bench is far superior to my opponents.

[ardee]

I feel kind of bad because we're all sorta ganging up on DHodgkins but I don't think his team is going to be effective at all.

To whoever said Isiah is a 'leader' who will pull the team together, remember he's a player who's infamous for making dumb comments in the media and making a bad situation worse. He's really not a leader in the way Nash or Duncan is, one who can inspire his team. He'd probably bring down the morale of this team even more.

Wilkins is just an awful fit on this team. He is a terribly overrated player to start with (by the general public). He was not a good shooter, nor a good off-ball player. No defense, passing, or rebounding to speak of. He's sort of a poor man's Melo to me, at least Melo can shoot and rebound hard. Just has nothing to contribute on a team like this where no one scores too much.

Robinson is the best player in the series, but he'll have serious problems with Malone. HBK has a pure scorer who can actually shoot and does so very efficiently, so he'd be effective doing so playing off Stock-Malone. Hodgkins has no one to guard Gervin or even Doc, while Doc was a phenomenal defensive player who could handle either Wilkins or Drexler if need be (not that either would be very effective in this kind of spacing).

Overall there's such a gulf even in the starting lineups that I don't even need to get into the benches, where I can see Sprewell and Walker getting into it and Rondo sulking. Ultimately, Webber and Robinson would sneak out of their hotel in the middle of the night and never return, Isiah would say that Stockton would be just another guy if he was black, and Sprewell would try and attack Hodgkins

[MisterHibachi]

Well, HeartBreakKid is moving on to the next round. I would still like the hear the opinions of the remaining two judges, tho, if possible.

[john248]

It looks like heartbreakid's team moves on. With that said, I wasn't too much of a fan of DHodgkins team since it was a collection of guys who really need the ball to do something. I was hoping to see Wilkins on the bench with Robertson starting where there's more defense on the court and some scoring punch off the bench. Isiah would have to do his best as a drive and dish player. Rondo can help Wilkins get some easy buckets. Walker and Sprewell aren't worth mentioning since they'd see very little time. I thought this one was closer than it appeared.

[DHodgkins]

Remarkable how things can turn out. Thought I had the better team (and best individual star) offensively and the potential to be better defensively. Everyone was naming my team one of the top ones after three picks. Followed those three with a couple of HOFers and DPOYs. Oh well, it was fun and would for sure participate in our next project. Just surprised at how lopsided it was. Good luck HBK the rest of the way with three starters past their peak


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[HeartBreakKid]

Good game Dhodgkins.

[whitehops]

Remarkable how things can turn out. Thought I had the better team (and best individual star) offensively and the potential to be better defensively. Everyone was naming my team one of the top ones after three picks. Followed those three with a couple of HOFers and DPOYs. Oh well, it was fun and would for sure participate in our next project. Just surprised at how lopsided it was. Good luck HBK the rest of the way with three starters past their peak


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I think the problem with some teams (not only yours) is that today's game isn't about iso or individual scoring by mass at all, it's more about your players scoring efficiently and sharing opportunities. personally, I didn't feel your team had enough of those players. defensively I think people underestimated your team, for what it's worth.

[Texas Chuck]

Hm, I don't get how I am overrating Gilmore unless those statements are toward the other posters.

Im assuming this is directed to me?

And yeah my statements are in response to other posters.

[Texas Chuck]

To whoever said Isiah is a 'leader' who will pull the team together, remember he's a player who's infamous for making dumb comments in the media and making a bad situation worse. He's really not a leader in the way Nash or Duncan is, one who can inspire his team. He'd probably bring down the morale of this team even more.

Again this was me.

I agree Zeke is not the leader I would want to lead my team for a decade or even a season. But in a 7 game series? On the court? He is clearly the best leader in that situation of anyone in this matchup. I hate the guy personally, but give the man his due. He was the clear leader and heart of those Pistons' teams. Yeah they won because of defense, but they needed his bravado. He was a tough SOB and his example on the court should not be overlooked.

[SideshowBob]

Vote: HeartBreakKid

I'll try not to get into too much detail. Everything's already been covered.

I've been sitting here trying to imagine a unit from DHodgkins' team that I think could be effective against what has been stacked up in this Fantasy League. Lots of redundancy on offense, and we're missing the staples. Poor spacing (the floor is almost always going to be clogged), no strong low-post threat, they'll be decent on the PnR but I don't trust the action we'd get off the ball. The ideal strategy would be to push the ball with those athletes, and that's not necessarily something that's easy to do against stronger opponents, particularly those that execute well on the offensive end, as HeartBreakKid's team would be expected to do (less long rebounds, live ball turnovers). Though I do believe that Hodgkins' backcourt is well equipped to create turnovers and capitalize on the fast-break in general (lots of finishing here, but no shooting).

DRob is one of the best to build a defense around, but despite the talent on that end, I still see redundancy and also feel that they could do with a bit more length on the perimeter. I think they'd have clear struggles with the kind of system HeartBreakKid's team would field. PnR all day with solid movement off the ball, Gilmore is arguably in his ideal offensive role as a clean-up guy as HBK described, and they might be even better than the other team on the break with Johnson/Doc and the shooters. Just feels like a dynamic team on offense. They'd make easy work of the Robinson team.

[TMACFORMVP]

I’m sorry guys. I didn't realize until last night the playoffs had started, and only had time to view the matchups right now. I've not been able to read the comments except the GM’s posts regarding their rotation/game plan.

I’ll definitely try to be more detailed in my thought process in the next round of voting.

When we’re looking at teams with this much talent, you have to place a premium on fit. And I think besides usage, the main thing we look at is if the adequate spacing is there for these players to do what they did best. And while I’m not sure either team is particularly adept at spacing the floor, particularly from three, there isn’t a single floor spacer on Hodgkins team. I think HeartBreakKid’s team redeems itself in the starting lineup from a spacing standpoint by bringing in Laimbeer for Gilmore off the bench. I think HeartBreakKid’s team has enough bodies to beat up on DRob too. I’m a bigger DRob fan than most, but it’s undeniable to ignore his shortcomings in the post season (though tad overblown on this board, imo). I think however, it’s important to make the distinction (in general) with this version of Gilmore, and not mistaking him with pre-injury or ABA Gilmore – especially when we’re considering over a three year stretch. I'm sure this has already been touched on however. I think instead of Nique, Hodgkins team would be better served going with a more “fit” player that could stretch the floor and play some defense.

It’s a close series, but when the game comes down to execution, I just think HBK’s works better.

VOTE: HeartBreakKid