ATFL Western: (2) batmana vs. (7) O_6

[bastillon]

ElGee I disagree with you about Ewing to an extent. remember this is 90-92 Ewing we're talking about who cannot be guarded 1 vs 1 (which is why batmana is begging Shaq to get into foul trouble by playing him straight up, Shaq never had to deal with a player with this much aggression in the low post). his passing is not gonna be an issue here because batmana decided not to send double teams anyway. Ewing was an ok passer, he was certainly no Dwight or Moses. sure he wouldn't handle Sonics type defense (mid 90s), but he's good enough to pass out of the double team against simple defensive schemes.

[RSCD3_]

Batmana,

Do you have mike conley playing a lot of minutes with shaq. I say this because conley fits far better with shaq imo. He shoots better from 3, and is a better defender in most ways except strength but conley is no jennings. He also has a little bit of a floater the last two uears that he could hoist in the paint just like westbrook. I think conley has a slightly better finishing rate than westbrook because westbrook is out of control. Seems like westbrook would be a better option as a 6th man / SG in the offense.

Also

Because where including paul george over 3 years how was his defense in 2012 and how well did he shoot 3's during the 3 year span, you may have already had the stats posted on one of the discussion threads but id like to see them if its no problem.



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[ElGee]

ElGee I disagree with you about Ewing to an extent. remember this is 90-92 Ewing we're talking about who cannot be guarded 1 vs 1 (which is why batmana is begging Shaq to get into foul trouble by playing him straight up, Shaq never had to deal with a player with this much aggression in the low post). his passing is not gonna be an issue here because batmana decided not to send double teams anyway. Ewing was an ok passer, he was certainly no Dwight or Moses. sure he wouldn't handle Sonics type defense (mid 90s), but he's good enough to pass out of the double team against simple defensive schemes.

Oh I remember. Back when the Knicks had middle of the road offenses...in general, there are few players in NBA history I can think of who have a large impact on Global offense with isolation basketball. Increasing Ewing's offensive load with Penny and Durant is a downgrade. Ewing could still score 25 points 60% TS and I don't think it would be a very good thing.* The whole thing is exacerbated by Ewing not being double-teamed...

*Interesting, to your point, that Shaq never played good offensive centers while in LA. In 98, older Ewing scored 29 on 61% TS vs. Shaq, who was in could trouble and fouled out. And the Knicks ORtg was 100 in that game.

[batmana]

Batmana,

Because where including paul george over 3 years how was his defense in 2012 and how well did he shoot 3's during the 3 year span, you may have already had the stats posted on one of the discussion threads but id like to see them if its no problem.

Paul George has a .371 from 3 over the 3-year span (as of today) on 5.2 attempts. His defensive rating was 100 in 2012, 97 in 2013 and so far 95 in 2014. Toni Kukoc, Brandon Roy and Mike Conley are also capable 3-point shooters while we all know that most of Westbrook's 3s are off the dribble so he is a different animal here.

I'd like to answer several other things about my team. First of all, I don't mean to educate the judges but I see Mason is getting quite downplayed here (not necessarily by the judges but by most posters). I remember somebody mentioning I probably shouldn't even play Mason so I need to respond to that.

Anthony Mason was on the All-Defensive 2nd team in 1997 and top-10 in MVP award shares in that same season. Over the 3-year stretch (1996-98) he averaged 10.3 RPG, had a defensive rebound % of 22.1, a total rebound % of 14.1 and a defensive rating of 105. But he was also impressive offensively, scoring 14.5 PPG on .532 FG (.583 TS), with an impressive offensive rating of 117. His offensive game may not have been pretty and he may not be your traditional PF but despite his apparent lack of size, he is a unique 2-way player.

Charles Oakley had a defensive rating of 99 over the 3 seasons (1992-94), a defensive rebounding % of 22.0 and a total rebounding % of 18.0. He made the 1st All-Defensive Team in 1994, was top 10 in defensive rating in 1993 and 1994 and even top 10 in TOTAL win shares in 1994 (obviously heavily influenced by his amazing defense).

The point in drafting Oakley/Mason to take all mins. at the 4 position is that I decided I could do without a 5th scorer. I needed a complete team and those guys played roles that are absolutely essential. Either way, the 5th guy offensively is not going to get too many touches so it made no sense to me to try and find someone with a better offensive game than Oakley. I believe most basketball teams are designed like that and have one player who is not really an offensive threat but that doesn't cripple them too much.

I'd like to reiterate that my team is not designed to be a 3-point shooting team. I don't want to live and die by the 3-point shot. Instead, it will be used sometimes as a weapon, and sometimes the swingmen will be looking to penetrate or make a mid-range shot (which they are almost universally very good at).

Something that I didn't say yet, I like all of my perimeter players when it comes to making the entry pass to the post. They are all good at that. In fact, Paul George might be my worst passer from the perimeter, which is amazing.

Another player that I feel is getting downplayed is Grant Hill. Over those 3 seasons (his 2nd to 4th seasons in the league) he made a 1st All-NBA team and two 2nd All-NBA teams. He had a PER of 22.5, posted an offensive rating of 110 and a very good defensive rating of 101. He was top 10 in defensive rating all 3 years, amazingly was 2nd in overall defensive rebounds in 1996, and I trust his basketball IQ and his skills to adjust to this role in which his team does not need him to be the go-to guy offensively but play off-ball. I feel that also he would be one of the best passers into the post.

I find it funny how it's suggested that Shaq would get in foul trouble against Ewing when the 2000-2002 Shaq is one of the most dominant offensive forces ever and if we are even going to mention foul trouble, I'd say Ewing (and potentially his backups) are more likely to get in foul trouble than Shaq. Add to that Westbrook's penetration and how he draws fouls and please tell me again who is going to get into foul trouble.

[O_6]

Doctor MJ...
My bad, I misunderstood your first post and didn't read your 2nd before I made my reply. I thought you were saying that Durant didn't get that much better than 2012. After I made my post I read it all over and understood what your point was about the 3 year stretch and 2012's role in that. I still disagree with you about Durant not being Shaq's "ballpark", but I feel like that has more to do with the word "ballpark" than anything else. I don't want to get in a semantics debate about the word "ballpark", but I think the difference between the two is closer than you think.

Just look at these past 3 years, wouldn't you agree that Durant hasn't been too far behind LeBron as an offensive player? LeBron has been better over the course of those 3 years but I think Durant has been pretty damn close offense-only. LeBron is on that Shaq level as an offensive force imo, and Durant isn't too far behind that (in 2014 he is on that level). Again it may just be a semantics debate more than anything, but I think Durant isn't that far behind Shaq as an offensive player for this project. Shaq is in the 1-5 range in terms of offense-only impact in this project, Durant is in the 5-10 range. Wouldn't you agree with that? And wouldn't you agree that the team I surrounded around Durant probably maximizes his offensive potential more than the team around Shaq does?

ElGee...
By options, I meant scoring options. I want to feed Ewing in the post because of the fact that he will be single covered by Shaq. I think a big advantage in this series that I have is that I can double Shaq easily while Ewing is going to be single-covered. Another thing is the fact that Shaq cannot guard Rasheed so he will be forced to guard Ewing while I can give Ewing some rest with some Sheed on Shaq, which allows Ewing to play a helpside defensive role since Oakley isn't much of a threat

I really feel like Shaq has the potential to be in foul trouble in this series because of the fact that he is forced to guard a very good offensive center 1 on 1. When he was tearing up the league in 00-02, he never had to deal with guarding a player like Ewing 1 on 1 for the majority of games. That is why Ewing is my #2 scoring option and Penny my #3 option. I want to make Shaq work his ass off on the defensive end of the court, I want to force him into potential foul trouble. So I will feed Ewing in the early going but Penny will still be a big part of my offense and get plenty of looks in the mid-post, especially if he is guarded by Westbrook who is too small to guard him in the post. And it's not a set in stone #2 vs. #3, if Ewing is struggling with Shaq it will be Penny who is more aggressive as a scorer.

[bastillon]

ElGee I disagree with you about Ewing to an extent. remember this is 90-92 Ewing we're talking about who cannot be guarded 1 vs 1 (which is why batmana is begging Shaq to get into foul trouble by playing him straight up, Shaq never had to deal with a player with this much aggression in the low post). his passing is not gonna be an issue here because batmana decided not to send double teams anyway. Ewing was an ok passer, he was certainly no Dwight or Moses. sure he wouldn't handle Sonics type defense (mid 90s), but he's good enough to pass out of the double team against simple defensive schemes.

Oh I remember. Back when the Knicks had middle of the road offenses...in general, there are few players in NBA history I can think of who have a large impact on Global offense with isolation basketball. Increasing Ewing's offensive load with Penny and Durant is a downgrade. Ewing could still score 25 points 60% TS and I don't think it would be a very good thing.* The whole thing is exacerbated by Ewing not being double-teamed...

*Interesting, to your point, that Shaq never played good offensive centers while in LA. In 98, older Ewing scored 29 on 61% TS vs. Shaq, who was in could trouble and fouled out. And the Knicks ORtg was 100 in that game.

those middle of the road offenses had more to do with ugly roster around Ewing. I agree that generally playing through the post player is worse than playing through a dominant perimeter player. there is no question Penny and Durant are better offensive players than Ewing. but feeding Ewing in the post against Shaq is a great option. Shaq is gonna get in foul trouble and if you're not double teaming that Ewing, he is going to score on you efficiently. with Shaq, you have to make him work defensively. back in his prime some coaches even fed scrubs in the post just to potentially get Shaq into foul trouble. and this is prime Ewing, a better scorer than anyone 00-02 Shaq ever guarded. the only scorer during Shaq's CAREER that was better than that Ewing was prime Olajuwon. but Ewing was a lot more aggressive in 90-92 than 93-95 Hakeem, you could get into foul trouble much more easily. this was often despite constant double teaming and here batmana chose to play Ewing straight up (very bad decision).

that game you cited is completely irrelevant to me. one game, seriously?

[ElGee]

ElGee I disagree with you about Ewing to an extent. remember this is 90-92 Ewing we're talking about who cannot be guarded 1 vs 1 (which is why batmana is begging Shaq to get into foul trouble by playing him straight up, Shaq never had to deal with a player with this much aggression in the low post). his passing is not gonna be an issue here because batmana decided not to send double teams anyway. Ewing was an ok passer, he was certainly no Dwight or Moses. sure he wouldn't handle Sonics type defense (mid 90s), but he's good enough to pass out of the double team against simple defensive schemes.

Oh I remember. Back when the Knicks had middle of the road offenses...in general, there are few players in NBA history I can think of who have a large impact on Global offense with isolation basketball. Increasing Ewing's offensive load with Penny and Durant is a downgrade. Ewing could still score 25 points 60% TS and I don't think it would be a very good thing.* The whole thing is exacerbated by Ewing not being double-teamed...

*Interesting, to your point, that Shaq never played good offensive centers while in LA. In 98, older Ewing scored 29 on 61% TS vs. Shaq, who was in could trouble and fouled out. And the Knicks ORtg was 100 in that game.

those middle of the road offenses had more to do with ugly roster around Ewing. I agree that generally playing through the post player is worse than playing through a dominant perimeter player. there is no question Penny and Durant are better offensive players than Ewing. but feeding Ewing in the post against Shaq is a great option. Shaq is gonna get in foul trouble and if you're not double teaming that Ewing, he is going to score on you efficiently. with Shaq, you have to make him work defensively. back in his prime some coaches even fed scrubs in the post just to potentially get Shaq into foul trouble. and this is prime Ewing, a better scorer than anyone 00-02 Shaq ever guarded. the only scorer during Shaq's CAREER that was better than that Ewing was prime Olajuwon. but Ewing was a lot more aggressive in 90-92 than 93-95 Hakeem, you could get into foul trouble much more easily. this was often despite constant double teaming and here batmana chose to play Ewing straight up (very bad decision).

that game you cited is completely irrelevant to me. one game, seriously?

The game was symptomatic of the point -- you can have a good game and foul out the other guy but it doesn't help your teammates much. I'm conceding Ewing would do fine against Shaq (I don't know if that's true, but I don't think it matters). Can you show me a great offense produced by feed an isolation scorer?

I think you're overblowing this matchup and foul issue majorly. Guys don't just easily get other guys in foul trouble. Across our 3-year periods, Shaq doesn't even foul that much. I don't remember him being foul prone...

Shaq (00-02)
DQ's: 5.0%
5-fouls and under-35 MP: 1.8%
"Foul Trouble" games: 6.8%

Ewing (90-92)
DQ's 4.8%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 3.3%
"Foul Trouble" games: 8.1%

I don't see any evidence Shaq was foul-prone or in foul trouble, both from memory nor actual fouling patterns. Ewing looks more foul prone. What about other bigs?

Robinson (94-96)
DQ's 3.3%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 2.6%
"Foul Trouble" games: 5.9%

Olajuwon
DQ's 4.1%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 2.4%
"Foul Trouble" games: 6.5%

Mourning (98-00)
DQ's 6.4%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 9.4%
"Foul Trouble" games: 15.8%

Just don't see how this is an issue. I'll add that in general, most predictions I see of "well, Player X will just get Player Y into foul trouble 'because he can't stop him'" are often totally wrong...defense rarely works like that in the pros. These players just aren't regularly prone to foul trouble, even against great offensive players. Are Shaq's MP's going to go lower than 36??

I'll let others chime in if they think there is meat here...

[Doctor MJ]

Doctor MJ...
My bad, I misunderstood your first post and didn't read your 2nd before I made my reply. I thought you were saying that Durant didn't get that much better than 2012. After I made my post I read it all over and understood what your point was about the 3 year stretch and 2012's role in that. I still disagree with you about Durant not being Shaq's "ballpark", but I feel like that has more to do with the word "ballpark" than anything else. I don't want to get in a semantics debate about the word "ballpark", but I think the difference between the two is closer than you think.

Just look at these past 3 years, wouldn't you agree that Durant hasn't been too far behind LeBron as an offensive player? LeBron has been better over the course of those 3 years but I think Durant has been pretty damn close offense-only. LeBron is on that Shaq level as an offensive force imo, and Durant isn't too far behind that (in 2014 he is on that level). Again it may just be a semantics debate more than anything, but I think Durant isn't that far behind Shaq as an offensive player for this project. Shaq is in the 1-5 range in terms of offense-only impact in this project, Durant is in the 5-10 range. Wouldn't you agree with that? And wouldn't you agree that the team I surrounded around Durant probably maximizes his offensive potential more than the team around Shaq does?

I think the gap in 2012 between LeBron & Durant was a lot bigger than people tended to realize even just looking at offense (I would not consider that Durant a Top 10 offensive player in this project), but I think from last year onward it's a legit debate between the two. How exactly to count that for this project is something that's tough for me to pin down.

Re: Better built around Durant than was built around Shaq. Yes, I would. Of course, you had the higher 2nd & 3rd picks, so you should have the advantage there. That's not a reason to vote against you of course, but I feel like the argument continues to rely on the idea that at the 14th spot you got a guy who was a massive steal which thus nullifies the 1st Round disadvantage you face, and that's the rub:

If we were going based on "1 year" Durant, then I'd expect your competitors would have drafted Durant way before you had a chance to grab him, but "3 year"-wise, to me it makes perfect sense why he drops to you and I could have seen him drop further. There's potential for you to win the whole shebang then based on getting judges to view Durant differently from how your fellow GMs saw him, and to me that's something that should be considered very closely as a judge.

[kayess]

Doctor MJ...
My bad, I misunderstood your first post and didn't read your 2nd before I made my reply. I thought you were saying that Durant didn't get that much better than 2012. After I made my post I read it all over and understood what your point was about the 3 year stretch and 2012's role in that. I still disagree with you about Durant not being Shaq's "ballpark", but I feel like that has more to do with the word "ballpark" than anything else. I don't want to get in a semantics debate about the word "ballpark", but I think the difference between the two is closer than you think.

Just look at these past 3 years, wouldn't you agree that Durant hasn't been too far behind LeBron as an offensive player? LeBron has been better over the course of those 3 years but I think Durant has been pretty damn close offense-only. LeBron is on that Shaq level as an offensive force imo, and Durant isn't too far behind that (in 2014 he is on that level). Again it may just be a semantics debate more than anything, but I think Durant isn't that far behind Shaq as an offensive player for this project. Shaq is in the 1-5 range in terms of offense-only impact in this project, Durant is in the 5-10 range. Wouldn't you agree with that? And wouldn't you agree that the team I surrounded around Durant probably maximizes his offensive potential more than the team around Shaq does?

I think the gap in 2012 between LeBron & Durant was a lot bigger than people tended to realize even just looking at offense (I would not consider that Durant a Top 10 offensive player in this project), but I think from last year onward it's a legit debate between the two. How exactly to count that for this project is something that's tough for me to pin down.

Re: Better built around Durant than was built around Shaq. Yes, I would. Of course, you had the higher 2nd & 3rd picks, so you should have the advantage there. That's not a reason to vote against you of course, but I feel like the argument continues to rely on the idea that at the 14th spot you got a guy who was a massive steal which thus nullifies the 1st Round disadvantage you face, and that's the rub:

If we were going based on "1 year" Durant, then I'd expect your competitors would have drafted Durant way before you had a chance to grab him, but "3 year"-wise, to me it makes perfect sense why he drops to you and I could have seen him drop further. There's potential for you to win the whole shebang then based on getting judges to view Durant differently from how your fellow GMs saw him, and to me that's something that should be considered very closely as a judge.

Interesting; I still think LBJ is clearly, but slightly better on O than Durant, although of course this recent stretch makes you re-think things...

Personally, it's not all that different from what we've seen when an ultra-ball dominant wing has to assume even more responsibility (reminds me of SSB's thread with the "archangel" stretches of MJ/LBJ/Wade; hell LBJ's Jan/Feb last year is in the ballpark, too). You could definitely argue that Durant's is even more impressive because he wasn't a natural ball-handler like those 3 were, but impact wise it's probably just below.

Sorry to de-rail the thread, but your thoughts on Durant vs. LBJ at the moment, Doc (Durant has been more impactful, and that LBJ's been coasting, and all that, but still...)? I recall you saying (at the time) that Davis is probalby the next generational talent. I agreed then, and I still think that now, my excited, knee-jerk reactions to Durant's hot streak aside, but would you still bet on AD reaching his sort of "more athletic Duncan" potential, eclipsing Durant and possibly even LeBron?

[MisterHibachi]

bastillon: O_6
TMACFORMVP
penbeast0
ronnymac2
Doctor MJ
SideshowBob
Texas Chuck: batmana
therealbig3: O_6

[ronnymac2]

Depth chart:
Shaq (36)/Muresan (12)
Oakley (20-28)/Mason (20-28)
Hill (26-30)/Kukoc (13-16)/Mason (2-5)
Roy (26-30)/George (18-22)
Westbrook (33)/Conley (15)

Ewing (35) -- Noah (9) -- Rasheed (4)
Rasheed (23) -- McDyess (17) -- Noah (8)... Durant will get some stretch 4 looks if batmana goes small
Durant (35) -- Joe J. (13)
Battier (23) -- DJ (16) -- Joe Johnson (9)
Penny (32) -- Brandon (10) -- DJ (6)




Pat against his guys, Oak and Mase...
Shaq vs. Penny...
RW vs. KD...

Well right off the bat, the amount of physically in this series is disturbing. Shaq/Oak/Mason is the biggest, baddest frontline there is. Combatting that frontcourt is an absolute warrior in Patrick Ewing, a great teammate/tough guy in Sheed, and while Noah may be undersized at C, he's as fiery as they come and doesn't mind mixing it up either.

Despite the physical nature of the series, I think these groups of players respect each other more than most, too. I almost wish we could combine the teams in these first round matchups. I think Team Batmana + O_6 squashes everybody else because the teammates would love each other and play for each other and would love literally snapping every other team in half. But on to the matchup now...


I like the minutes distribution for O_6 in the backcourt. I think Joe Johnson would have been too much iso offense if his minutes weren't more staggered. Battier is a really nice glue guy to have out there, as is DJ. Only thing that gave me pause was when Batmana said he'd press the hell out of Penny to try and cause turnovers. Chicago did this with Jordan and Pippen in '96 and because Orlando was so poorly constructed (no secondary ball-handler between Dennis 3D Scott and Nick 0-4 Anderson), Penny had trouble for a majority of the ECF.

However, Grant Hill is no Pip/MJ defensively, even if Grant won't need to do much offensively. More importantly, Kevin Durant has become a highly capable secondary ball-handler, even in the backcourt (bringing the ball up). Sheed's spacing effect is a positive for Penny in the HCO as well since that's one less defender prone to trapping him.

I do wish Sheed was playing more minutes. Dice doesn't need those minutes. I get Noah because of his high-post passing (perfect fit against Shaq and big George, because now Noah will have beautiful sight lines to hit Penny/Durant/DJ cutting since Shaq/George won't bother to venture out and get in Noah's face...similar to Vlade in those Lakers/Kings series), but Dice is just a finisher and a meh defender. Suppose it doesn't hurt though considering Oak/Mase aren't offensive juggernauts.

What do I think of Ewing? Well, if you want a post-oriented scoring version of Pat, the 90-92 version is the one to get. Durant and Penny will be doing the majority of the creating, so that's definitely a good sign, and Ewing has a ton of spacing finally (creative perimeter threats and shooters were something poor Pat never had...he has those two things in spades here), but I wish he said Ewing was going to primarily be a mid-range shooter spreading the floor for Penny posting and KD slashing. Featuring Ewing in the post against a dominant man defender like Shaq isn't the best use of him in my opinion. Batmana correctly says "no doubles on Ewing." Good strategy. Ewing is not selfish, but he isn't the most creative passer either. The good shooting helps though.

I also like the Ewing/Penny pick-n-roll. Now THAT puts Ewing in good positions to score, especially with Battier/Durant/Sheed spacing the floor. Shaq is exploitable here. Very nice.

On the other side, Shaq is going to be his dominant self. Love Pat, but he isn't the man to do the trick. O_6 states he will throw doubles at Shaq.

I'm usually not a fan of doubling, but in all honestly, I like the decision. Send that hard double and make Shaq a passer. Now, Shaq can do enormous amounts of damage without great 3-point shooting (Check the 2000 Lakers), but the defense he is facing is long. Sheed/Durant/Battier/Penny/DJ are long players who can disturb sight lines for passing and recover and closeout on shooters following the pass.

Poor shooting is fine for Shaq, and honestly it's fine for Westbrook as well (Westbrook is going to get by any primary defender thrown at him here), but it might be a problem for Grant Hill. I think he needs shooting to create the type of spacing necessary to make him a credible off-ball threat.

Paul George and Brandon Roy are fine fits here. Both are dangerous off-ball — PG with his excellent shooting and Roy with his ability to shoot, manufacture something from the triple threat, pin down guys with his strength and then finish, or cut baseline and use his elite vertical to finish (Yes, Roy was a great leaper despite playing an old man's game).

I really like the Oak/Mason combination. Oak was a decent passer. Didn't have Horace Grant's jumper, but he was at least a threat. Monster offensive rebounder. Then you bring in Mason, who doesn't let up much on the glass but provides some superb creativity passing the ball. I really don't think his ball-handling is necessary what with RW/Roy/Hill/PG, but his interior passing gets Shaq an easy dunk per game at least (like Odom to Bynum/Gasol a few years ago).

In regards to the rebounding battle...when Batmana is on defense, I believe he will be able to dominate his own defensive glass. Ewing/Sheed isn't a great offensive rebounding core, and Shaq/Oak/Hill is insane even with Sheed dragging a PF outside (Hill was actually second in the entire NBA in total defensive rebounds in 1996). On the other side, Shaq/Oak is a dominant force on the offensive glass. Quite honestly, O_6 would need to concede four offensive rebounds per game to O'Neal anyway, because nobody could ever keep him off the glass. Oak is great, too, but I think Wallace, who is excellent at boxing out, will help in crucial situations, and I think Sheed/Durant form a beautiful defensive rebounding duo (Yes, there is chemistry involved in rebounding, too!) with Sheed boxing out and Durant coming to grab uncontested defensive rebounds — "uncontested" merely because Sheed is sacrificing and battling Oak and Mason. Should be noted that Westbrook might be the best offensive rebounding PG of this era.

It comes down to this...I don't think Kevin Durant gets stopped. Hill, George, Mason, Roy, Kukoc...whoever. I haven't seen a team defensive style, a formula, an individual defender, or a strategy that has really been able to steer 2012-2014 Kevin Durant from doing what he wants to do. He's a scorer who doesn't hurt his teammates in the slightest. He can lead offensively or play off that deadly Penny/Ewing pick-n-roll/pop. Sheed spreads the floor for the 3 scorers to go to work. Then O_6 comes in with a handy bench — DJ and JJ creating, Noah passing, etc. It all just works.

On the other side, Shaq will be dominant. He's the MDE for a reason. I like that Roy is featured as a second option, and I think Westbrook is extremely underrated off-ball. I don't like this version of Hill though (wasn't the defender he eventually became later, didn't have the range or consistency on his jumper that he had in year 2000 when his scoring took off to 25 PPG). I think with O_6's length, they can swallow up Hill's drives and even make life difficult for Westbrook/Roy/George at times).

I'm going with O_6's team in either a very tough six or seven game series. Great job to both GMs though. O_6, you've got one hell of a team. Batmana, you surrounded my favorite player ever (Shaq) with Oak and Mase to create the most devastating, intimidating frontline I've ever seen in any All-Time League I've participated in. This matchup was worthy of the Finals in my opinion.

Winner: Team O_6 in six or seven games

[bastillon]

The game was symptomatic of the point -- you can have a good game and foul out the other guy but it doesn't help your teammates much. I'm conceding Ewing would do fine against Shaq (I don't know if that's true, but I don't think it matters). Can you show me a great offense produced by feed an isolation scorer?

I think you're overblowing this matchup and foul issue majorly. Guys don't just easily get other guys in foul trouble. Across our 3-year periods, Shaq doesn't even foul that much. I don't remember him being foul prone...

Shaq (00-02)
DQ's: 5.0%
5-fouls and under-35 MP: 1.8%
"Foul Trouble" games: 6.8%

Ewing (90-92)
DQ's 4.8%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 3.3%
"Foul Trouble" games: 8.1%

I don't see any evidence Shaq was foul-prone or in foul trouble, both from memory nor actual fouling patterns. Ewing looks more foul prone. What about other bigs?

Robinson (94-96)
DQ's 3.3%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 2.6%
"Foul Trouble" games: 5.9%

Olajuwon
DQ's 4.1%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 2.4%
"Foul Trouble" games: 6.5%

Mourning (98-00)
DQ's 6.4%
5-fouls and under 35 MP: 9.4%
"Foul Trouble" games: 15.8%

Just don't see how this is an issue. I'll add that in general, most predictions I see of "well, Player X will just get Player Y into foul trouble 'because he can't stop him'" are often totally wrong...defense rarely works like that in the pros. These players just aren't regularly prone to foul trouble, even against great offensive players. Are Shaq's MP's going to go lower than 36??

I'll let others chime in if they think there is meat here...

first of all those numbers are completely irrelevant in terms of the matchup we are discussing. you are bringing up Shaq's average numbers from 00-02. of course he wasn't foul prone at the time because he was never played in a way he's being played by batmana. who the hell was Shaq supposed to foul out against? Vlade Divac? ancient David Robinson? you are citing a bunch of numbers that are just completely meaningless to me. why would I assume that playing against the guys Shaq played in 00-02 would be similar to this matchup?

second, when Shaq was facing a legitimate post player like Ewing/Hakeem/D-Rob, his team was always sending doubles. one of the reasons why is to protect Shaq from foul trouble. in '95 finals even though Magic doubled tons of times, Shaq was still in foul trouble for stretches (4.5 fouls per game). they were putting Horace Grant to defend Hakeem in those stretches. this is with double teaming, not single coverage for entire game. not sending double teams against the big man of Ewing's caliber (90-92 version) is almost impossible to defend without getting into foul trouble. you have to be the best of the best. creme de la creme, know what I mean. I think Hakeem could pull this off (one of the reasons why I consider him the best man defender ever, even better than Thurmond) and maybe couple other guys but Shaq has never showed ability to guard a center of that caliber without getting into foul trouble.

third, foul trouble is heavily matchup dependant which is why your numbers have no relevance whatsoever. between 93 and 97 in 17 games between Shaq and Ewing, Shaq averaged 4.35 fouls per game. he was regularly in foul trouble (as was Ewing). you don't simply guard a legitimate post player single coverage. it just doesn't happen (unless Hakeem is the one defending you). this is with regular double teaming. here, you are guarding Ewing single coverage. you are also playing against a hell lot more aggressive and a hell lot more athletic version of Ewing. to me the decision to play this version of Ewing straight up with Shaq is a sabotage.

as for as "defense doesn't work that way in the pros that you could get somebody in foul trouble" of course you are right. but then pros are not guarding 25+ ppg Patrick Ewing single coverage because it is asinine. this is why Shaq vs Ewing didn't play straight up but Magic sent double teams. you had to because Shaq cannot guard him straight up without any help. bigs rarely guard each other straight up. most of the time there is at least considerable help defense if not double/triple teams (or just flat out trapping/fronting). playing a big of this caliber straight up is unheard of in the pros.

[MisterHibachi]

bastillon: O_6
TMACFORMVP
penbeast0
ronnymac2: O_6
Doctor MJ
SideshowBob
Texas Chuck: batmana
therealbig3: O_6

[whitehops]

Interesting; I still think LBJ is clearly, but slightly better on O than Durant, although of course this recent stretch makes you re-think things...

I would just like to point out that their on-off numbers contradict that statement. LeBron is at +7.7 when you look at his on-off offensive rating, while KD's is +3.7. that is THIS YEAR, when LeBron is supposed to be having a down season. LeBron from last year was +11.9. oh, and LeBron's team has a higher ORtg as a team.

as good a year and as monster of a stretch KD is having, he is still having not nearly as good an offensive season as LeBron, when it comes to making his team's offense go.


the main reason why LeBron has fallen of this year is his defense, not his offense, even though his PPG and APG are down.

[ardee]

Interesting; I still think LBJ is clearly, but slightly better on O than Durant, although of course this recent stretch makes you re-think things...

I would just like to point out that their on-off numbers contradict that statement. LeBron is at +7.7 when you look at his on-off offensive rating, while KD's is +3.7. that is THIS YEAR, when LeBron is supposed to be having a down season. LeBron from last year was +11.9. oh, and LeBron's team has a higher ORtg as a team.

as good a year and as monster of a stretch KD is having, he is still having not nearly as good an offensive season as LeBron, when it comes to making his team's offense go.


the main reason why LeBron has fallen of this year is his defense, not his offense, even though his PPG and APG are down.

James Harden was a negative using on-off in 2013. A NEGATIVE overall.

That is a useful stat but you can't absolutely rely on it.

[ceiling raiser]

ElGee I disagree with you about Ewing to an extent. remember this is 90-92 Ewing we're talking about who cannot be guarded 1 vs 1 (which is why batmana is begging Shaq to get into foul trouble by playing him straight up, Shaq never had to deal with a player with this much aggression in the low post). his passing is not gonna be an issue here because batmana decided not to send double teams anyway. Ewing was an ok passer, he was certainly no Dwight or Moses. sure he wouldn't handle Sonics type defense (mid 90s), but he's good enough to pass out of the double team against simple defensive schemes.

Oh I remember. Back when the Knicks had middle of the road offenses...in general, there are few players in NBA history I can think of who have a large impact on Global offense with isolation basketball. Increasing Ewing's offensive load with Penny and Durant is a downgrade. Ewing could still score 25 points 60% TS and I don't think it would be a very good thing.* The whole thing is exacerbated by Ewing not being double-teamed...

*Interesting, to your point, that Shaq never played good offensive centers while in LA. In 98, older Ewing scored 29 on 61% TS vs. Shaq, who was in could trouble and fouled out. And the Knicks ORtg was 100 in that game.

Not to derail the thread, but I'm curious, who are these few players?

[therealbig3]

Interesting; I still think LBJ is clearly, but slightly better on O than Durant, although of course this recent stretch makes you re-think things...

I would just like to point out that their on-off numbers contradict that statement. LeBron is at +7.7 when you look at his on-off offensive rating, while KD's is +3.7. that is THIS YEAR, when LeBron is supposed to be having a down season. LeBron from last year was +11.9. oh, and LeBron's team has a higher ORtg as a team.

as good a year and as monster of a stretch KD is having, he is still having not nearly as good an offensive season as LeBron, when it comes to making his team's offense go.


the main reason why LeBron has fallen of this year is his defense, not his offense, even though his PPG and APG are down.

James Harden was a negative using on-off in 2013. A NEGATIVE overall.

That is a useful stat but you can't absolutely rely on it.

I agree that it shouldn't be used to make any conclusive statements, but I would say that Harden's unimpressive on/off does suggest that his impact/game was overrated last year.

[ardee]

I would just like to point out that their on-off numbers contradict that statement. LeBron is at +7.7 when you look at his on-off offensive rating, while KD's is +3.7. that is THIS YEAR, when LeBron is supposed to be having a down season. LeBron from last year was +11.9. oh, and LeBron's team has a higher ORtg as a team.

as good a year and as monster of a stretch KD is having, he is still having not nearly as good an offensive season as LeBron, when it comes to making his team's offense go.


the main reason why LeBron has fallen of this year is his defense, not his offense, even though his PPG and APG are down.

James Harden was a negative using on-off in 2013. A NEGATIVE overall.

That is a useful stat but you can't absolutely rely on it.

I agree that it shouldn't be used to make any conclusive statements, but I would say that Harden's unimpressive on/off does suggest that his impact/game was overrated last year.

Looking back he probably was and I was guilty of that too, seduced by his ridiculous top end performances.

But negative? No way man. He was at still firmly in the top 10.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[penbeast0]

Depth chart:
Shaq (36)/Muresan (12)
Oakley (20-28)/Mason (20-28)
Hill (26-30)/Kukoc (13-16)/Mason (2-5)
Roy (26-30)/George (18-22)
Westbrook (33)/Conley (15)

Ewing (35) -- Noah (9) -- Rasheed (4)
Rasheed (23) -- McDyess (17) -- Noah (8)... Durant will get some stretch 4 looks if batmana goes small
Durant (35) -- Joe J. (13)
Battier (23) -- DJ (16) -- Joe Johnson (9)
Penny (32) -- Brandon (10) -- DJ (6)

Hard to believe Batmana ever saw Georghe Muresan play. You could use him as a textbook example of how to play center for young bigmen (although his court intelligence wasn't high and he was very mechanical, he had clearly listened to his coaches and had a textbook low post game) -- but mobile defender? One reason you could use him as a textbook example is because you don't have to slow the tape down for slow motion. Big Georghe was the biggest man to ever play in the NBA but he was also clearly the slowest with the slowest reflexes. He got blocks just on size and the Bullets funnel defense but he was an AWFUL defender. Chris Dudley took him off the dribble 3 straight possessions once, he had close to zero mobility and his impact was well below what his stats would indicate. He has no business playing at all at this level though he was one of my all-time favorite players (as was Manute Bol).

As for Bat's team, Shaq will have the biggest numbers in this series even with the doubles. Ewing was a terrific 2-way player but Shaq will score on him and Bat's got a lot of good passers who will get him the ball. The problem is that Bat's team has the passers because his starting lineup is full of players who are slashers that need the ball in their hands. Not as sold on Oak as some and Mason was a terrible point forward in the Adrian Dantley sense -- he would just hold the ball and pound his dribble for much of the shot clock to work his man. He got a lot of good percentage shots but I never felt he created well for his teammates. Shaq also may be the all-time great who got swept more than any other; I love his game -- especially the fact that NO ONE got And-1's against him -- but it wasn't always effective and this team doesn't fit well around him. The bench is actually a huge improvement in terms of fit.

Bat will win the paint battle and the board battle. He will lost the turnover battle and the 3 point battle badly.

I am good with Durant in this role; I don't really think it's "his team" the way Bat's team is Shaq's team. I think Ewing will emerge as the team leader due to personality. And that's fine, it will push the team to a nasty defensive tone which they need. Sheed is a bit overrated; his range is countered by his weak rebounding and he pulls some stupid stunts out there in addition to arguing with refs. But he's great as a doubler off Oakley or Mason with his length and quicks. Durant is a much better fit than Hill, George at this point isn't the offensive threat to be a huge problem and Penny has a slight edge on Westbrook in decisionmaking. I think 0-6's team has better fit and should pull this off.

Apologies for the weak writeup, it's clearer in my head.

[bastillon]

I agree bat's bench fits Shaq much better than his s5. Conley/Roy/George is quite perfect for Shaq. Conley and George are one of the best in the league in terms of defensive quickness (which is something you need a lot of building around Shaq). they are all good spot up shooters and entry passers. they have extremely high bball IQ (especially Conley and Roy). I would really have to think about this if they were playing more in this matchup. as it is though, I don't think this defense can keep up with O_6 tremendous offense. Westbrook is a poor pnr defender which makes Shaq even more vulnerable. Hill is no defensive stopper either. I think this team could be just picked apart with their poor pnr defense.

I disagree with penbeast about Sheed though. his rebounding is actually strong. you need to look past the boxscore numbers here because they underestimate Sheed's impact here. Sheed was great at boxing out which is why his teammates tended to get more rebounds when he was on the floor. offensively he didn't get many rebounds simply because he wasn't playing close to the basket (sacrificed offensive rebounding for transition defense which is a great tradeoff in this particular case). but defensively to me there is no doubt Sheed is a strong rebounder, despite low rebounding numbers.