RealGM Top 100 List #15

[Jim Naismith]

Aside from your first sentence, which I completely agree with, you're seriously reaching with these narratives, especially the one in bold. At most, I wonder if Hakeem wins 2 titles if jordan never retired, but his ability as a basketball player doesn't change either way. Same with shaq.

That's exactly my point. The weak-era arguments against Hakeem, Jordan, Shaq, and LeBron are overdrawn—just like Owly's weak-era argument against Moses.

[Clyde Frazier]

Aside from your first sentence, which I completely agree with, you're seriously reaching with these narratives, especially the one in bold. At most, I wonder if Hakeem wins 2 titles if jordan never retired, but his ability as a basketball player doesn't change either way. Same with shaq.

That's exactly my point. The weak-era arguments against Hakeem, Jordan, Shaq, and LeBron are overdrawn—just like Owly's weak-era argument against Moses.

I re-read their post. It was just 1 point in their overall evaluation of moses. Wasn't the entire basis of it. That's why we have to look at context with accolades, but not make exaggerations to devalue them.

[ShaqAttack3234]

Aside from your first sentence, which I completely agree with, you're seriously reaching with these narratives, especially the one in bold. At most, I wonder if Hakeem wins 2 titles if jordan never retired, but his ability as a basketball player doesn't change either way. Same with shaq.

Agreed. Aside from the fact that Smits was still a fine offensive center when Shaq faced him, and didn't guard Shaq that much from the 4th quarter of game 2 on. Plus, Shaq dominated DPOY Mutombo in 2001. Robinson was still a 20/10 caliber big man and top 5 defender in 2000, and Shaq matched up with Duncan at times, such as the Christmas game in '99-'00 when Shaq outplayed Duncan at both ends. Plus, Zo peaked the same year Shaq did. Also, as much as I like Ewing, after Shaq's rookie year or so, even a young early 20's Shaq was having no problem with Ewing. Finally, as far as Sabonis, he gave Shaq more trouble when he was older in 2000 than he had in '97 and '98, when Shaq himself wasn't as good as 2000. You know why? Because no NBA Sabonis had a chance of guarding Shaq which the '97 and '98 series proved. Sabonis along with Dunleavy's strategy of doubling or even tripling Shaq on the catch with Pippen and Sheed as he did the entire 2000 WCF is what could slow down, and by slow down, I mean average 26/12/4 on good efficiency.

[Clyde Frazier]

A quick look at karl vs. moses:

http://bkref.com/tiny/TaFlE

At first glance, karl has the clear regular season edge whereas moses had a better (yet much shorter) post season career. Moses' offensive rebounding is definitely inflated as explained by D Nice:

Careful with Moses's offensive rebounding. It's a valuable skill in that you are creating more possessions for your team, but nobody in history rivals Moses' propensity for playing volleyball with himself and the backboard. What this does is create a statistical trade-off where he is diminishing his TS% in favor of more OReb's, essentially understating his offensive efficacy a bit in exchange for seemingly GOAT offensive rebounding. The problem ends up being people don't really knock him that much for his self-inflicted TS% drop but they weigh his offensive rebounding the same as, say, a Ben Wallace, when it couldn't be further from the truth.

TLDR: He's a more efficient scorer than he seems and a worse offensive rebounder than he seems, but the #s skew his offensive-rebounding impact up to a greater degree than the extra misses skew his offensive efficacy downward.

In the last thread, I decided to look at karl's first round exits, and how he performed in those series overall as well as elimination games. I left out his rookie year as I don't think it's relevant unless you somehow break the mold and have an effective playoff run as a rookie. Last column is net OFF/DEF rating:



Overall, malone produced well in these first round exits, but his efficiency was average to below average in 3 of the 5 series. Also, he only posted a positive net OFF/DEF rating in 1 of the 5 series, and 1 of the 5 elimination games. There are no major red flags here, but I'd at least point to this as part of the criticism he gets for his overall post season performance.

While moses had some impressive playoff runs (capped off by his 83 championship and finals MVP), his playoff resume is kinda bare in between those runs. Karl had a few conference finals runs and his 2 finals runs at the end of his career, and couldn’t get over the hump. It’s tough to gauge this as you evaluate their entire careers. I’ll have to look into it further as I ended up voting for west at #15 anyway.

For reference, karl finished 12th and moses finished 16th in the 2011 voting.

[ElGee]

In general, Moses Malone gets underrated on the PC board in my opinion. Look, defensively, he was no stalwart. Whether you are enamored by Moses or not, you pretty much know Moses isn't knocking on the door of the top-20 GOAT defensive players.

However...to those who aren't enamored by Moses, what is it about his offense that worries you? Why does it worry you?

He doesn't pass well, and he doesn't shoot well. These are probably the two most important offensive skills in basketball.

His value is derived from his offensive rebounding and well above average post-isolation game. But that game is ball-stopping. It's not supportive of a large Global lift because it doesn't benefit other players on the floor much. If you watched at Malone at his peak -- probably 1982 -- you'll see him bludgeon his man at times with face up jumpers from the mid-range, as well as an array of finishing moves around the basket (evident in the highlights posted in this thread). He's a good "scorer" in that sense, and that along with the offensive rebounding go a long way, but he would not be in my top-30 on an all-time offensive peaks list. And I don't think his offensive peak had great longevity either. Nor do I consider that kind of game very portable, for obvious reasons.

With that said, I currently rank his offensive value above KG and Duncan, so clearly a lot of my issues with the guy are on defense. And despite his steady slide down my GOAT list, I still question if I overrate his offense.

[drza]

I tend to think that both David Robinson and Dirk Nowitzki should be getting more traction than they're receiving, when compared to West and the Malones. In fact, I'm pretty sure that I'll be voting either the Admiral or Dirk this thread, once it all settles out. Let's start with some facts and see where this goes:

Box Scores

Regular season, 10 year primes per100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 29.0 pts (56% TS), 6 reb, 6.4 asts (TO not recorded)
Moses Malone (1979 - 88): 31.5 pts (57.2% TS), 17.4 reb, 2 asts, 4.4 TO
Karl Malone (1990 - 1999): 36.8 pts (59.3% TS), 14.5 reb, 5 ast, 4 TO
David Robinson (90 - 2000): 33.3 pts (58.8% TS), 15.9 reb, 4 ast, 3.9 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 34.5 pts (58.4% TS), 12.3 reb, 4 ast, 2.8 TO

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 31.8 pts (55.6% TS), 5.6 reb, 5.9 ast (TO not recorded)
Moses Malone (1979 - 88): 28.9 pts (54.5%), 16.8 reb, 2 asts, 3.4 TO
Karl Malone (1990 - 1999): 35 pts (52.9%), 15 reb, 4.4 asts, 3.7 TO
David Robinson (90 - 2000): 30 pts (54.6%), 16.1 reb, 3.8 ast, 3.7 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 33.4 pts (58.5%), 13.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 3.0 TO

Once again disclaimer: these are West's actual numbers (Edit: corrected), not per 100 possessions. The last estimate that I heard was that West's Lakers were playing at about 120 pace, so if you want you could mentally scale his numbers back a bit compared to the others. But really, I think the point comes across anyway. In the box scores, when looked at per 100 possessions West doesn't at all separate himself from his competitors for this spot in the box score. I acknowledge that his relative shooting percentage difference compared to his actual peers was higher than his raw TS% reflects, and also that the 3-point line would likely improve both his volume and scoring efficiency. Even with that said, in the box scores his scoring is no more impressive to me than DIrk's, definitely, and the big men are in the discussion with him.

Going more general, I would say that Dirk separates himself as a scorer from the three other bigs currently getting consideration. Only Malone can match his volume, but in the postseason Dirk's efficiency blows the Mail-Man away. Going purely off of the box scores, I would say that Dirk is the most impressive offensive player of these five.

On the flip side, I don't even think I need to make the case that Robinson is by-far the best defensive player in this group. I mean, he laps the field. But even with that, when you look at the boxes from both the regular and the postseason, the Admiral was extremely competitive with both Malones on offense (from scoring volume to scoring efficiency to passing, Robinson holds his own in both seasons). And again, he is on the short list for greatest defenders of all-time in the same package.

Non-box-score individual quantification

We only have full databall data for (just about) the complete career of Dirk. We have +/- data from 1998 on for Robinson and Karl. For the older players, we have WOWY data and/or team transition data for West and Moses. Because of the different scales, we can only get so quantitative with the comparisons of this data. But a few notes:

*West's WOWY data marks him as one of the biggest impact players of his era right along with Russell and Oscar. He measures out as super elite.

*Moses' WOWY and junction numbers weren't nearly as impressive. Mainly from memory from previous projects, but I recall Moses' non-boxscore estimated impacts to be far more pedestrian than West's and not very impressive for a super-duper star.

*Dirk measured out as elite in the +/- studies. In Doc MJ's 1998 - 2012 spreadsheet, he was essentially tied with Tim Duncan for the 4th/5th slots in both 3-year (+10.2) and 5-year (+9.1) peak behind Shaq/LeBron/KG. And Dirk's prime was very long. As I pointed out in the Dirk vs Kobe post, he was posting high +/- scores on pretty much a yearly basis from 2003 on.

*I'll post the Karl and Robinson +/- section from the comparison post I did on them:

Malone
98: 9.0 (+8.8 ORAPM; 0.2 DRAPM)
99: 5.8 (+6.4 ORAPM; -.6 DRAPM)
00: 5.5 (+6.9 ORAPM; -1.4 DRAPM)

Robinson
98:7.4 (+1.2 ORAPM; +6.2 DRAPM)
99: 8.9 (+2.3 ORAPM; +6.6 DRAPM)
00: 8.3 (+2.7 ORAPM; +5.6 DRAPM)

For those that don't know, this data came from Doc MJ's normalized PI RAPM spreadsheet from 1998 - 2012. I only did 1998 - 2000 for both players, because we don't have +/- data in 2001 and only partial for 2002, and by 2003 both were on their last legs. I found these numbers revealing for a few reasons. Malone's value in these years was almost all offense, while Robinson's value was primarily defense.

*For those that believe 1998 to be in Karl's peak, it is interesting that his +9.0 normalized RAPM score from 1998 is almost exactly the same as Dirk's 5-year peak (+9.1) but noticeably lower than Dirk's 3-year (+10.2) and single-season (+11.5) peaks.

*Similarly, '98 Karl and '99 Robinson both had almost the exact same overall normalized RAPM score, though as mentioned Karl's was almost all offensive and Robinson's was primarily defensive.

Mini conclusion: to the degree of granularity that this type of approach and data allows, I would say that West, Dirk, Karl and Robinson all demonstrate impact stats on the order of what I would expect from the elite and that they all separate themselves from Moses here.

Stylistics and eliminations

I just don't think that Moses had the impact of the others, so I'm setting him aside as a candidate for now.

I'm also really having trouble seeing how I would vote for West here, because I just don't see where I would choose him over Dirk. On the link that Clyde Frazier posted for pace adjusted numbers ( https://docs.google.com/a/umich.edu/spr ... 2YlE#gid=0 ), they compare West offensively to Ray Allen and defensively to Manu Ginobili. West would be more of a combo guard than Ray, but on the whole I think it's an interesting comp. But offensively, I just can't see West posing the mismatch that Dirk does and Dirk's scoring volume and efficiency (with any kind of pace adjustment) are better than West's. Ginobili actually measures out as one of the better per-minute defenders among perimeter players in the DRAPM study around a solid +3 per year. Generally speaking, the very best defensive wings/perimeter players in that study measure out around +3 - +4 vs the elite bigs getting up more around +7. So if we expect something similar from West, it still doesn't really close the gap with Dirk (who's own 5-year DRAPM peak is also around +3). It's been noted that Dirk is a strong defensive rebounder in the postseason, and that he's a solid man defender with an offensive skillset that allows for defensive role players to slot in around him that scores at such great efficiency that it allows his defenses more opportunities to set up.

And that's not even getting into durability and longevity, which aren't trivial and Dirk has clear advantages there as well.

Thus, just on the whole, I'll be voting Dirk before West. So I'll set West aside as a candidate.

This leaves Karl vs Robinson. And as I mentioned before, Robinson pretty much matches Malone in box score offensive production in both the regular and post seasons. Robinson's own postseason scoring efficiency questions are less harmful in a comp with the Mailman, who shares some of the same issues. But Robinson was still an exceptional defender. As Colts18 has pointed out, his career (nor his prime) really ended with the 1997 injury. In 1999 Robinson was a +9 normalized RAPM player that had clearly the highest defensive impact on the team (on a squad that won with defense first), and so much of the '99 Spurs' blazing finish and romp through the postseason was tied to their stifling defense that Robinson was spear-heading. Duncan was a beast that year, so not minimizing him at all. My point here is that 1999 helped prove that Robinson's skill set allowed him to be an elite-impact player whose impact could translate to the postseason on a team scaled up to championship caliber. Robinson's step-function added value as a rookie and the disaster of the 1997 Spurs without Robinson (even factoring in potential tanking) are further evidence of his huge value.

Malone has the monstrous longevity that's to his advantage (as he has on most players), but I believe that Robinson was just the better player. And as I weigh quantity vs quality, I keep finding myself tipped more towards what I perceive to be the quality.

Bottom line:

Yeah, as I expected when I began this post, the front-runners for me in this slot are either Dirk Nowitzki or David Robinson. So far most of this thread has been about West and the Malones, but hopefully there are some others willing to chime in on Dirk and DRob to help me parse out how to evaluate them vs. each other.

[D Nice]

I tend to think that both David Robinson and Dirk Nowitzki should be getting more traction than they're receiving, when compared to West and the Malones. In fact, I'm pretty sure that I'll be voting either the Admiral or Dirk this thread, once it all settles out. Let's start with some facts and see where this goes:

Spoiler:

Box Scores

Regular season, 10 year primes per100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 29.0 pts (56% TS), 6 reb, 6.4 asts (TO not recorded)
Moses Malone (1979 - 88): 31.5 pts (57.2% TS), 17.4 reb, 2 asts, 4.4 TO
Karl Malone (1990 - 1999): 36.8 pts (59.3% TS), 14.5 reb, 5 ast, 4 TO
David Robinson (90 - 2000): 33.3 pts (58.8% TS), 15.9 reb, 4 ast, 3.9 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 34.5 pts (58.4% TS), 12.3 reb, 4 ast, 2.8 TO

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 26.9 pts (55.6% TS), 4.7 reb, 5 ast (TO not recorded)
Moses Malone (1979 - 88): 28.9 pts (54.5%), 16.8 reb, 2 asts, 3.4 TO
Karl Malone (1990 - 1999): 35 pts (52.9%), 15 reb, 4.4 asts, 3.7 TO
David Robinson (90 - 2000): 30 pts (54.6%), 16.1 reb, 3.8 ast, 3.7 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 33.4 pts (58.5%), 13.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 3.0 TO

Once again disclaimer: these are West's actual numbers, not per 100 possessions. The last estimate that I heard was that West's Lakers were playing at about 120 pace, so if you want you could mentally scale his numbers back a bit compared to the others. But really, I think the point comes across anyway. In the box scores, when looked at per 100 possessions West doesn't at all separate himself from his competitors for this spot in the box score. I acknowledge that his relative shooting percentage difference compared to his actual peers was higher than his raw TS% reflects, and also that the 3-point line would likely improve both his volume and scoring efficiency. Even with that said, in the box scores his scoring is less impressive to me than DIrk's, definitely, and the big men are in the discussion with him.

Going more general, I would say that Dirk clearly separates himself as a scorer from all four of the others currently getting consideration. Only Malone can match his volume, but in the postseason Dirk's efficiency blows the mail-man away. Going purely off of the box scores, I would say that Dirk is the most impressive offensive player of these five.

On the flip side, I don't even think I need to make the case that Robinson is by-far the best defensive player in this group. I mean, he laps the field. But even with that, when you look at the boxes from both the regular and the postseason, the Admiral was extremely competitive with both Malones on offense (from scoring volume to scoring efficiency to passing, Robinson holds his own in both seasons). And again, he is on the short list for greatest defenders of all-time in the same package.

Non-box-score individual quantification

We only have full databall data for (just about) the complete career of Dirk. We have +/- data from 1998 on for Robinson and Karl. For the older players, we have WOWY data and/or team transition data for West and Moses. Because of the different scales, we can only get so quantitative with the comparisons of this data. But a few notes:

*West's WOWY data marks him as one of the biggest impact players of his era right along with Russell and Oscar. He measures out as super elite.

*Moses' WOWY and junction numbers weren't nearly as impressive. Mainly from memory from previous projects, but I recall Moses' non-boxscore estimated impacts to be far more pedestrian than West's and not very impressive for a super-duper star.

*Dirk measured out as elite in the +/- studies. In Doc MJ's 1998 - 2012 spreadsheet, he was essentially tied with Tim Duncan for the 4th/5th slots in both 3-year (+10.2) and 5-year (+9.1) peak behind Shaq/LeBron/KG. And Dirk's prime was very long. As I pointed out in the Dirk vs Kobe post, he was posting high +/- scores on pretty much a yearly basis from 2003 on.

*I'll post the Karl and Robinson +/- section from the comparison post I did on them:

Malone
98: 9.0 (+8.8 ORAPM; 0.2 DRAPM)
99: 5.8 (+6.4 ORAPM; -.6 DRAPM)
00: 5.5 (+6.9 ORAPM; -1.4 DRAPM)

Robinson
98:7.4 (+1.2 ORAPM; +6.2 DRAPM)
99: 8.9 (+2.3 ORAPM; +6.6 DRAPM)
00: 8.3 (+2.7 ORAPM; +5.6 DRAPM)

For those that don't know, this data came from Doc MJ's normalized PI RAPM spreadsheet from 1998 - 2012. I only did 1998 - 2000 for both players, because we don't have +/- data in 2001 and only partial for 2002, and by 2003 both were on their last legs. I found these numbers revealing for a few reasons. Malone's value in these years was almost all offense, while Robinson's value was primarily defense.

*For those that believe 1998 to be in Karl's peak, it is interesting that his +9.0 normalized RAPM score from 1998 is almost exactly the same as Dirk's 5-year peak (+9.1) but noticeably lower than Dirk's 3-year (+10.2) and single-season (+11.5) peaks.

*Similarly, '98 Karl and '99 Robinson both had almost the exact same overall normalized RAPM score, though as mentioned Karl's was almost all offensive and Robinson's was primarily defensive.

Mini conclusion: to the degree of granularity that this type of approach and data allows, I would say that West, Dirk, Karl and Robinson all demonstrate impact stats on the order of what I would expect from the elite and that they all separate themselves from Moses here.

Stylistics and eliminations

I just don't think that Moses had the impact of the others, so I'm setting him aside as a candidate for now.

I'm also really having trouble seeing how I would vote for West here, because I just don't see where I would choose him over Dirk. On the link that Clyde Frazier posted for pace adjusted numbers ( https://docs.google.com/a/umich.edu/spr ... 2YlE#gid=0 ), they compare West offensively to Ray Allen and defensively to Manu Ginobili. West would be more of a combo guard than Ray, but on the whole I think it's an interesting comp. But offensively, I just can't see West posing the mismatch that Dirk does and Dirk's scoring volume and efficiency (with any kind of pace adjustment) are significantly better than West's. Ginobili actually measures out as one of the better per-minute defenders among perimeter players in the DRAPM study around a solid +3 per year. Generally speaking, the very best defensive wings/perimeter players in that study measure out around +3 - +4 vs the elite bigs getting up more around +7. So if we expect something similar from West, it still doesn't really close the gap with Dirk (who's own 5-year DRAPM peak is also around +3). It's been noted that Dirk is a strong defensive rebounder in the postseason, and that he's a solid man defender with an offensive skillset that allows for defensive role players to slot in around him that scores at such great efficiency that it allows his defenses more opportunities to set up.

And that's not even getting into durability and longevity, which aren't trivial and Dirk has clear advantages there as well.

Thus, just on the whole, I'll be voting Dirk before West. So I'll set West aside as a candidate.

This leaves Karl vs Robinson. And as I mentioned before, Robinson pretty much matches Malone in box score offensive production in both the regular and post seasons. Robinson's own postseason scoring efficiency questions are less harmful in a comp with the Mailman, who shares some of the same issues. But Robinson was still an exceptional defender. As Colts18 has pointed out, his career (nor his prime) really ended with the 1997 injury. In 1999 Robinson was a +9 normalized RAPM player that had clearly the highest defensive impact on the team (on a squad that won with defense first), and so much of the '99 Spurs' blazing finish and romp through the postseason was tied to their stifling defense that Robinson was spear-heading. Duncan was a beast that year, so not minimizing him at all. My point here is that 1999 helped prove that Robinson's skill set allowed him to be an elite-impact player whose impact could translate to the postseason on a team scaled up to championship caliber. Robinson's step-function added value as a rookie and the disaster of the 1997 Spurs without Robinson (even factoring in potential tanking) are further evidence of his huge value.

Malone has the monstrous longevity that's to his advantage (as he has on most players), but I believe that Robinson was just the better player. And as I weigh quantity vs quality, I keep finding myself tipped more towards what I perceive to be the quality.

Bottom line:

Yeah, as I expected when I began this post, the front-runners for me in this slot are either Dirk Nowitzki or David Robinson. So far most of this thread has been about West and the Malones, but hopefully there are some others willing to chime in on Dirk and DRob to help me parse out how to evaluate them vs. each other.

I don't think anybody is disputing that David Robinson has highest-impact prime of the remaining candidates, but your analysis doesn't once mention the fact that prime David Robinson only exists for 7 or 8 seasons where Moses, Dirk, West, and Karl (and Barkely who is curiously being omitted from this discussion) ALL give you at least 11. You do realize that represents a HUGE sticking point in the valuation when you are considering an entire career and not your favorite 5 or 6-year composite, right?

And assuming West's modern-day impact would fall short of his past play based on any "era-transference"-centered argument doesn't hold water when the guy who was his peer and has a game that CLEARLY ports far far worse than his was voted in at #12 in this very project.

I'm with you on Nowitski 110% though, I'm actually shocked at the lack of traction he's gotten, particularly based on board momentum he was riding going into the project. If I were voting here it would be a clear Dirk vs. West discussion, any talks about other guys (Barkley/D-Rob/Karl/Moses) would serve as table-setters for later threads.

In general, Moses Malone gets underrated on the PC board in my opinion. Look, defensively, he was no stalwart. Whether you are enamored by Moses or not, you pretty much know Moses isn't knocking on the door of the top-20 GOAT defensive players.

However...to those who aren't enamored by Moses, what is it about his offense that worries you? Why does it worry you?

He doesn't pass well, and he doesn't shoot well. These are probably the two most important offensive skills in basketball.

His value is derived from his offensive rebounding and well above average post-isolation game. But that game is ball-stopping. It's not supportive of a large Global lift because it doesn't benefit other players on the floor much. If you watched at Malone at his peak -- probably 1982 -- you'll see him bludgeon his man at times with face up jumpers from the mid-range, as well as an array of finishing moves around the basket (evident in the highlights posted in this thread). He's a good "scorer" in that sense, and that along with the offensive rebounding go a long way, but he would not be in my top-30 on an all-time offensive peaks list. And I don't think his offensive peak had great longevity either. Nor do I consider that kind of game very portable, for obvious reasons.

This sums up my issues with Moses perfectly, +1, and honestly, I don't even necessarily agree that his offense is preferable to Tim's. In fact, I'd say I definitively disagree with that take, but I've always been of the opinion that Duncan's box-score stats have often understated his volume-scoring proficiency over the years.

[Clyde Frazier]

Thus, just on the whole, I'll be voting Dirk before West. So I'll set West aside as a candidate.

I'm with you on Nowitski 110% though, I'm actually shocked at the lack of traction he's gotten, particularly based on board momentum he was riding going into the project. If I were voting here it would be a clear Dirk vs. West discussion, any talks about other guys (Barkley/D-Rob/Karl/Moses) would serve as table-setters for later threads.

There's a good chance i'll be pushing for dirk once west gets voted in (unless there's an alternative runoff...), and they're very close for me anyway. I'm doing my best not to prop up dirk too early, as i long believed that malone and barkley ranked ahead of him in all time PFs. Dirk's probably one of my top 5 favorite players ever, so i'm going to re-evaluate the 3 one more time (and i'm sure there will be enough discussion here to help) before making a final decision on him.

[Moonbeam]

I'm happy to see Julius Erving get in despite my vote for Jerry WEst in the last thread - those two are very, very close in my mind.

I'll cast my vote for Jerry West for #15 again.

I feel at least partially responsible for the arguments that ensued from posting his stats in this post, so I'll try to address some of the discussion points that followed.

I'll start by noting that my main point in posting those statistics was to highlight West's incredible ability to increase his volume while maintaining his efficiency in the postseason against strong defenses overall (sometimes elite). I want to dig a little more deeply into that when I get a chance, but the weighted average DRating differential of West's playoff opponents was -2.52. In that regard, West strikes me as remarkable.

I think it's worthwhile to note that his per game averages are subject to the pace of the leagues he played in, and that accounting for that pace is important. Some of the discussion about how to translate West's stats to a more modern framework was quite intriguing, and it's clearly hard to pin down. I don't think a simple multiplication by the ratio of league paces is necessarily a perfect solution to translating stats either forward or backward - we might end up concluding that not just Karl Malone, but 10+ other players in each 90s postseason would post Points per 100 stats higher than the league leader in the 60s.

Another thing to be wary of is the pace estimates themselves for those early seasons. I know that BBR used to offer a simple average of PPG and OPPG as their estimate of team pace for the 60s, whereas now they have some other formula. I've posted a topic in the Statistical Analysis board asking for details of how they calculate team pace for such seasons now as I'm curious, but the differences are sometimes quite large. Here is a table of how the league pace estimates differ from 1961-1973:

Code: Select all

Year Old   New
----------------
1961 118.1 127.7
1962 118.8 126.2
1963 115.3 119.6
1964 111.0 116.8
1965 110.6 117.3
1966 115.5 121.4
1967 117.5 121.6
1968 116.6 119.8
1969 112.3 116.9
1970 116.7 117.1
1971 112.4 115.1
1972 110.2 112.0
1973 107.6 110.7


Those aren't negligible differences, in my opinion. Both estimates are based on vastly incomplete data. Which set should we trust?

Largely because it is difficult to know how to translate performance across eras, I don't think we can fully separate the performance of any player from his era, valiantly though we may try to do just that. For that reason, I think league context is important. And the context in that link I posted is that West regularly was a top 3 postseason scorer on efficiency that consistently was in the top 10, usually in the top 5, while racking up assists at a top 5 rate. He led the league in postseason PPG 4 times, postseason APG a further 3 times, and postseason TS% once (with 2 second place finishes). He clearly stands out as a phenomenal playoff performer - someone who reliably rose to the occasion when it mattered most and did more than enough to distinguish himself as one of the very best players in his era. I don't think any of the remaining candidates can compete with such dominance within their eras.

Meanwhile, Karl Malone was in the top 4 in postseason PPG an amazing 11 times and was regularly in the top 10 in postseason RPG, often in the top 5, and it's also worth noting that there were more players in the playoff pool in Malone's years than in West's. I certainly don't doubt that he would put up monster scoring and rebounding totals in West's era. However, his efficiency, as noted, never stood out. Only twice did he crack the top 10 in TS%, coming in at #10 in 1992 and tied for 6th in 2000. Somebody brought up a worthwhile point (acrossthecourt?), that Malone's more-or-less league average efficiency did not hurt his team's ORating, though, as it was consistently above expectations. Still, within their respective eras, West appears to have an edge in scoring and a decided advantage in efficiency. Malone's great rebounding seems offset by West's great playmaking, and I'd imagine that the defenses West faced were more stingy than Malone's (I have to look into this further once I figure out when I have more time).

Finally, I don't think it's fair to simply compare raw TS% and therefore remove the era context completely. West has a small advantage there anyway, but I imagine it would be higher in today's setting with the 3-point shot and consequent better spacing. If you add on half a point per game to West for 3-point makes, his career postseason TS% jumps to .550. If you add a full point per game, it jumps to .559.

I know it may seem as if I'm pushing a West narrative, as I've been voting for him for a long time now. However, the Lakers are my least favorite team and I don't have any personal affinity for West, while Utah has been my second favorite team since 1990 and I've long been a fan of Malone's game. I simply could not look past West's statistical prowess. My Win Shares formula ranks him 8th for regular season play and 6th for postseason play, and while it doesn't form the entire basis for my rankings, it prompted me to look further into his career against those who I felt were in the same vicinity, and I came away more impressed.

[Moonbeam]

Box Scores

Regular season, 10 year primes per100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 29.0 pts (56% TS), 6 reb, 6.4 asts (TO not recorded)

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 26.9 pts (55.6% TS), 4.7 reb, 5 ast (TO not recorded)

Once again disclaimer: these are West's actual numbers, not per 100 possessions.

drza, thanks for the stats. Could you explain what you mean by "actual numbers"? These aren't his postseason averages over that span.

[SactoKingsFan]

Box Scores

Regular season, 10 year primes per100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 29.0 pts (56% TS), 6 reb, 6.4 asts (TO not recorded)

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jerry West (1962 - 1971): 26.9 pts (55.6% TS), 4.7 reb, 5 ast (TO not recorded)

Once again disclaimer: these are West's actual numbers, not per 100 possessions.

drza, thanks for the stats. Could you explain what you mean by "actual numbers"? These aren't his postseason averages over that span.

Looks like those are West's Per 36 PS averages.

[ShaqAttack3234]

I guess I'll re-post an abbreviated version of the case I made for West. Undoubtedly an elite scorer and shooter who proved time and again he could lead contending and championship level teams as the first option, but also an elite playmaker, regarded as one of the best defensive guards of his era, if not the best, and he had a reputation for raising his game when the stakes were the highest(hence Mr. Clutch), which us spoorted by his gaudy playoff numbers(go look at West's playoff runs from '65-'70, except for '67 when he played just 1 minute in the playoffs due to injuries).

[Baller2014]

Spoiler:

Kettle, this is Pot: you're black.

You're voicing frustration against the masses for ignoring your points (which to a large degree they haven't), while doing exactly the same to everyone else.

colts18 replied to the shooting efficiency point noting the difference in league avg TS% (he is NOT the first to do this......you've just repeatedly disregarded it). EDIT: Oops, I see you have responded to this.....although without much credibility--->You've elected to completely disregard how things like 1) a 3-point line, 2) changes in what refs will allow when dribbling ("carries", etc) and how that effects getting to the hole, and 3) a slower pace allowing for increased focus on good shot selection (as apposed to just getting it up in a hurry) can all effect league avg TS%, and instead are chalking it all up to worse shooting. Well played, sir.

And saying the Malone's D "clubs Jerry West mercilessly" is beyond a big stretch, fwiw. This too is not a point that has been ignored; it has been (repeatedly) called out as grossly inaccurate based on available evidence. But this too you have chosen to ignore.

I'm supporting Karl Malone for this spot (have been since the #12 vote). But these kinds of tactics and arguments---the strawmen type or blatantly inaccurate type, followed by completely ignoring valid counter-points---do NOT help. It subtly undermines the credibility of everyone attempting to support K.Malone.

I grow weary of these accusations of bad faith, just because people see things differently. I said multiple times in the last few threads that I totally agree West would benefit from the 3pt shot existing. The other 2 things are too speculative for me to give him credit for. What I hold against him (a lot) is the weak era much or most of his prime came in, and I've given many, many in depth reasons for why I have a problem with the 60's (and even moreso the 50's) in terms of strength relative to the 70's. I'm hardly alone in these views, others have made them stridently too, it's one reason so many of my anti-60's posts have been getting likes (just to name two, colts and shutupandjam have been scathing in their assessment of that era). Now, I also say West was such a standout from his era that he should be a top 20 player anyway, so the difference between me and others is not as extreme as is being suggested.

I can't know how much the 3pt line and different role would have helped West, just as I can't definitively know how much his weak era would have helped Malone, so I've been discussing them in depth, but basically letting the two cancel each other out. I haven't ignored anyone, I've heard the arguments people have made, and they're often based on a false premise; that West was gangbusters in the playoffs, while Malone was a let down. That premise is plainly false according to the stats. The only basis on which you can make that claim is looking at career playoff TS%, and ignoring everything else. I don't care if you pick 1 year playoff peak, 5-6 year playoff peak, or the best 9 years cherry picked for both candidates, but in each case Malone's TS% and his pp100 are higher. So the claim he was less efficient and worse at scoring is just demonstrably false. In any reasonable prime v.s prime (or peak v.s peak) playoff comparison, Karl Malone is winning as a scorer. West doesn't even win career playoff pp100, he loses handily. His whole argument on this score is literally career playoff TS%.

This should be really bothering people, because Karl Malone is more impactful on D, has tonnes more longevity, and handily beats West in the RS. Remember that outlier playoff pp100 West had one year in 1965, where he put up 40pp100, about 8-10 points higher than anything he ever did in the rest of his prime? K.Malone hit that mark or better in his regular season twice... and unlike West, who did it in a small sample on 53TS%, Malone did it over a whole regular season on 626TS% and 600TS%... insane). If you don't think K.Malone clubs Jerry West in the regular season, please provide stats to tell me why, it looks to me like Karl Malone's RS performance is way out in front, especially with pace adjustment.

[FJS]

Vote- Karl Malone

Karl Malone’s combination of high peak, top notch prime and insane longevity make him the clear choice here for mine. He gets criticised for his playoffs, but his playoff numbers are low only relative to himself. In his physical, statistical and actual prime from age 25-30 he put up 28.5ppg/11.9rpg/2.3 on 56TS% in the playoffs, all while playing brutal man and post D. Funnily enough he was still an MVP candidate at age 36. I know Malone wasn’t getting as much media narrative from age 25-30, because his team hadn’t made the finals yet, but looking at his MVP results from 88-93 the guy was hardly non-existent in the MVP results. He finished 8th, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 4th, and 8th and was a perennial all-nba 1st teamer. The year he was 3rd he was behind only Magic and Jordan, and the years he was 4th and 5th he finished behind only Jordan, Magic, Barkley, D.Rob and Drexler.

Many people have made much of West’s playoff performances, but in fact his big scoring in the playoffs is inferior to Malones! Just to highlight again what I'm talking about. From 88-93 K.Malone had a 56% TS. in the playoffs. During that time he put up 29ppg. When we look at this on a pp100 basis to help compensate for the higher pace West played at, here's is how it comes out. K.Malone from 88-93 had per 100 playoff scoring of 33.4, 32.6, 31.4, 35.0, 36.1 and 31.3. In addition, Karl Malone records 4 other playoffs over his career of 37-38pp100 (and in those 4 years his TS% was 550, 534, 584. and 484 when he was 38 years old) and regular season Karl is even better (having multiple seasons of 40pp100 or more, with even higher efficiency).

Now here's West's 5 best years in the 60's as cited by other posters (they're not entirely consecutive like Malone's, so I could have pumped up Malone's stats even more if I'd been allowed to skip/cherry-pick years too, but whatever):
534TS. (on 40pp100), 564TS. (on 32.6pp100), 542TS. (on 31.1pp100), 581TS. (on 30.7pp100) and 596TS. (on 30.1pp100).
So even West's best years show he's scoring less per 100 than Malone (except in one freak season, and in that one freak season his TS is vastly lower). If we averaged those 5 years out Malone would be ahead on both pp100 and TS%. Yet people are criticising Malone for "wilting" in the playoffs, when his playoff scoring is clearly superior to "Mr Clutch" West, who they are praising for playoff play.

Some people have talked about West’s D, but if he was good on D he’s the worst eye test for it ever. Plus, he plays guard, there’s a limited amount a guard (especially one like West) can do on D, whereas Malone can guard other teams bigs, and keep guys out of the paint by making them wary of his elbows and thugforcing.

How good was Karl Malone’s D? Well, Karl Malone was not an inside anchor on D, he couldn't impact a game the way Duncan could, but he was a monster defender through his career. He played great man D, and was one of the dirtiest thug enforcers you'll ever see. His favourite move was to swing his elbows back and forth every time he got a rebound, creating the impression this was just an "instinctive, habit driven move" when he got a board (while often catching players in the face with an elbow). I won't hold it against him (except morally), because he was sly enough to get away with it time and again. You had to be very worried going up against him in the post. He was also a fitness freak, in ridiculous shape, which gave him a tonne of muscle to throw around at other players. Malone caused major injuries with his tough (sneaky) play, even ending the career of some guy in college. He impact on the defensive end is pretty freaking huge.

Check out this video of his amazing post D:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_ezVqa2Z8o[/youtube]

Karl Malone and his elbows deserve a whole other category. Players had to be really careful about going inside to score against Malone, he was an extremely sneaky cheap shot artist. Some highlights here:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2KHn1un40g[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgM0Xm4E9UI[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bM-Y4UoiAY[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0nIHCR--Bg[/youtube]

I couldn't say it better.
Give me the guy with the awesome and outstanding longetivity.
My vote goes to Karl Malone.

[ThaRegul8r]

Remember that outlier playoff pp100 West had one year in 1965, where he put up 40pp100, about 8-10 points higher than anything he ever did in the rest of his prime? K.Malone hit that mark or better in his regular season twice

Why do you begin talking about the postseason and then switch to the regular season? Are you talking about comparing playoffs or the regular season? Wilt had several regular seasons in which he averaged more points than West did in the '65 postseason.

And, since you brought up '65, Malone never had any performance in his era equivalent to what West did against Baltimore in '65 when Baylor went down for the rest of the season before the first game could even finish, and West proceeded to put the team on his back and carry them into the Finals (where they were hopelessly outmatched by the six-time defending NBA champion Boston Celtics and prime Russell) when everyone thought they'd be done.

None.

I don't care about the raw numbers (didn't even mention West's raw numbers or any statistics), I care about the performance. West's backcourt partner suffered a groin injury in the fourth quarter of one of those games as well, and West had to play the next game without him in addition to his best teammate who was already gone. Malone did nothing remotely approaching it in his era.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Saw some people asking for West's stats so I will repost them.

West's Career
Regular-season = 27ppg
Post-season = 29.1ppg
NBA Finals = 30.5ppg

The Playoff Performer
2 year Peak : (25.1 PER) --- 31 / 5 / 7apg on 57%TS -- .277 WSP48
5 year Peak : (25.3 PER) --- 33 / 5 / 6apg on 56%TS --- .247 WSP48
11 year Prime : (23.1 PER) - 29 / 6 / 6.4apg on 54%TS --- .204 WSP48

Highest Scoring Average in NBA Finals (min 10 games)
(10 games) Rick Barry : 36.3ppg
(20 games) Shaq : 34.2ppg (out of date stat)
(35 games) Jordan : 33.6ppg
(55 games) Jerry West : 30.5ppg

---(12 games) Karl Malone : 24.3ppg---

[Baller2014]

Why do you begin talking about the postseason and then switch to the regular season in mid-sentence? Are you talking about the playoffs or the regular season? Wilt had several regular seasons in which he averaged more points than West did in the '65 postseason.

You're focusing on one sentence at the end of my post. I already covered the playoffs in depth, in several posts, and noted why Karl Malone's numbers are actually more impressive and efficient. That throwaway line at the end of my post is to emphasise just how much more impressive his regular season was, by referencing that one mythical playoff run West had in 1965 (which is a total outlier in terms of pp100 for him) and to note that K.Malone did it twice for the whole regular season, on grossly better efficiency. His overall RS is better too, and I'm happy to go into depth about why, but to act like there's some sleight of hand going on here is bizarre. K.Malone's pp100 and TS% over the RS both beat anything West was doing in the RS or PS, K.Malone's career PS pp100 beats West's career pp100, and any prime to prime or peak to peak comparison of TS% has K.Malone in front (it's only when you measure their playoff careers that West has a marginal advantage, and that's obviously unfair to Malone because he was in the playoffs into his old age, which helped lower his TS%).

And, since you brought up '65, Malone never had any performance in his era equivalent to what West did against Baltimore in '65 when Baylor went down for the rest of the season before the first game could even finish, and West proceeded to put the team on his back and carry them into the Finals (where they were hopelessly outmatched by the six-time defending NBA champion Boston Celtics) when everyone thought they'd be done.

We're going to look at one series against a non-notable team? That's West's big advantage here? West's 1965 numbers are not only a huge outlier (8-10 points higher than his next best season in terms of pp100) but even this extreme outlier is inferior to some of K.Malone's playoff outings when considering combined TS% and pp100... heck, K.Malone has one season where he posted 38.5pp100 and a 585TS%, which looks a heck of a lot better than West's 40pp100 with a TS% of only 53%. Or K.Malone's 1992 postseason with 36.1pp100 on a ridiculous 62TS%.

You're also totally distorting what it meant to "carry the team to the finals" in 1965. They had to win 1 series in 1965 to get to the finals, against the non-notable Baltimore team (who won 37 games and had an SRS of -1.97). Should we really be impressed by this?

We should certainly consider impact over stats, but West's impact (like Malones) is harder to determine than guys like Lebron or Bird or Duncan, because West and Malone basically always had good team mates, and they tended to both meet expectations more or less. West's Lakers when he was the man during the 60's would typically win 45-50 games, beat 1 inferior playoff opponent (e.g. St Louis/Baltimore/Detroit) and then they'd lose in the finals to the Celtics. I like to base impact on something more than media commentary about how a guy always brought it in clutch time. For instance, if you have a with/without record for the Lakers in games West missed, with a good sample size, that might be enlightening. Sadly K.Malone was such an ironman this sort of data basically doesn't exist, because he never missed games really.

[Warspite]

Im currently on vacation sleeping in Palm Springs and spending every day in LA (took me 4 hrs to get to Hollywood today) so I cant go into Moses Malone much. Just to say that Jerry West gets my vote at 15 for being such a playoff stud and a regular season player. To think he retired early because the Lakers wanted him to take a pay cut is just tragic.

Jerry West for his 9 Finals appearances, FMVP and awesome eff in the 60s.

[ThaRegul8r]

And, since you brought up '65, Malone never had any performance in his era equivalent to what West did against Baltimore in '65 when Baylor went down for the rest of the season before the first game could even finish, and West proceeded to put the team on his back and carry them into the Finals (where they were hopelessly outmatched by the six-time defending NBA champion Boston Celtics) when everyone thought they'd be done.

We're going to look at one series against a non-notable team? That's West's big advantage here? West's 1965 numbers are not only a huge outlier (8-10 points higher than his next best season in terms of pp100) but even this extreme outlier is inferior to some of K.Malone's playoff outings when considering combined TS% and pp100... heck, K.Malone has one season where he posted 38.5pp100 and a 585TS%, which looks a heck of a lot better than West's 40pp100 with a TS% of only 53%. Or K.Malone's 1992 postseason with 36.1pp100 on a ridiculous 62TS%.

You're also totally distorting what it meant to "carry the team to the finals" in 1965. They had to win 1 series in 1965 to get to the finals, against the non-notable Baltimore team (who won 37 games and had an SRS of -1.97). Should we really be impressed by this?

We should certainly consider impact over stats, but West's impact (like Malones) is harder to determine than guys like Lebron or Bird or Duncan, because West and Malone basically always had good team mates

West always had good teammates, yet when his best teammate other than himself goes down for the entire postseason, that means nothing. Got it. (And stepping up and shouldering the extra burden when your best teammate suffers a season-ending injury is a distortion over what it means to carry a team to the finals. Got it.) And you've also affirmed that Malone had no similar performance(s). Otherwise you would have named it/them.

For instance, if you have a with/without record for the Lakers in games West missed, with a good sample size, that might be enlightening.

ElGee's done it (I'd have to find it), but you wouldn't care for it because it doesn't suit your agenda.

[Baller2014]

Did you read my post? I gave 2 examples of plainly superior statistical playoff outings from Malone. If you're interested in non-statistical outings though, I'm pretty impressed with how he almost took down the showtime Lakers in 88. I called you out on misrepresenting what West did in 1965 (beating a bad Baltimore team without Baylor, which you called "carrying them to the finals), and you've basically ignored my reply. Nor do I think the Lakers team was bad outside of Baylor (what evidence is there that West was carrying a bad team?), not that it would matter much given the team they beat won 37 games and had a -2 SRS. Beating a team like that is nothing special.