RealGM Top 100 List #44

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 

Post#41 » by tsherkin » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:54 pm

trex_8063 wrote:fwiw, that wasn't aimed at you. That was aimed at anyone else reading who would have the tendency to, for instance, say "McHale in this runoff because Schayes played in the 50's.".


Yeah, fair enough.


Yes, absolutely. I've argued against having era portability being too heavy a factor in your criteria because it's---probably by far---the noisiest criterion available. It's not just purely subjective, it's also purely hypothetical. We're speculating on non-real hypothetical events, and basing our speculation on the eye-test (this doesn't sound like something that's gonna carry a ton of accuracy). I only switched gears and attempted to defend Schayes along this line of reasoning because others are using it as a significant chunk of their criteria. But I disagree with making such heavy use of it.


Very good. We'll call that the source of our disagreement and then call "agree to disagree." I respect the way you've supported your stance, I just do not agree with the points you are making, so that's about as far as we can go on this one. Almost, as I've got one other major card to play here.

I'll simply have to agree to disagree with you on this point. Schayes was never a huge volume scorer, even in that rush-paced era.


Was it, though? A "rush-paced era?"

Schayes' career started in 49-50, roughly a half-decade BEFORE the first shot clock game (the test scrimmage game; the shot clock was implemented for 54-55). His rookie year, his team scored 84.8 ppg and took 82 shots per game.

I think the perception of his career is as if he were part of the 60s, which WERE a much faster era, but that was not really the case.

Dip into his career-high season, 24.9 ppg in 57-58. 102 shots per game. That's a lot of shots, for sure. It's about 10 more shots per game than the 82 Lakers took. That, that's fast. But you'll notice that his efficiency was actually BETTER at that point in his career than it was in the slower, earlier portions of his career. Some of that is career arc, of course, player development, but you also have to wonder about transition points, which are actually higher-percentage and higher-draw than half-court points. Those are a boon, not a bane. 3P% in transition, for example, is usually quite high, for a contemporary comment.

So I just wanted to caution you that he had 5 full seasons before he ever had to deal with the shot clock, which sort of puts a damper on your pace-based commentary on his FG%.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#42 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:17 pm

Some really great discussion here guys. Really enjoying it.

For me personally I don't like basing rankings on hypotheticals and I'm always more concerned with how a guy plays in the only version of the league he actually had a chance to. I don't really care all that much how he would do in another era because its impossible to know since everything changes, from rules, to skill development, to strength and conditioning, to vast differences in salary/endorsements etc...

Bottom line for me is Schayes dominated his era more than McHale did his and did so longer. Much of the criticism of him in the discussion seems to be about his efficiency not measuring up to modern standards which seems like an unfair criticism especially considering he measured very well against his contemporaries and he has a decent skill set, and again he would have developed completely differently if he was born in 1960 or 1975.

I love Kevin McHale, but Schayes should be ranked higher imo.

Run-off Vote: Dolph Schayes
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#43 » by SactoKingsFan » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:39 pm

Run-off vote: Kevin McHale

Pretty easy decision to go with McHale over Schayes since I doubt Schayes' game would translate very well to the modern era due to his size/frame, athleticism and skill set. I have a hard time seeing him being a modern era star. I see McHale as a great two-way player who would have been a very capable franchise cornerstone.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#44 » by john248 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:53 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:Some really great discussion here guys. Really enjoying it.

For me personally I don't like basing rankings on hypotheticals and I'm always more concerned with how a guy plays in the only version of the league he actually had a chance to. I don't really care all that much how he would do in another era because its impossible to know since everything changes, from rules, to skill development, to strength and conditioning, to vast differences in salary/endorsements etc...

Bottom line for me is Schayes dominated his era more than McHale did his and did so longer. Much of the criticism of him in the discussion seems to be about his efficiency not measuring up to modern standards which seems like an unfair criticism especially considering he measured very well against his contemporaries and he has a decent skill set, and again he would have developed completely differently if he was born in 1960 or 1975.

I love Kevin McHale, but Schayes should be ranked higher imo.

Run-off Vote: Dolph Schayes



Then why not vote him in 20 spots earlier?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#45 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:17 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
Run-off Vote: Dolph Schayes

john248 wrote:
Then why not vote him in 20 spots earlier?


I honestly don't understand this question. I wouldn't even vote for him here much less 20 spots higher, but these are my two choices so I am going with Schayes.

Obviously the competition of the era comes into play. Me being the best player in my pick up game doesn't carry the same weight as you dominating the D-League and Schayes' era isn't the strongest in NBA history so I factor that in. What I don't spend much time doing is penalizing players in one era for not playing like guys do in different eras. I think its way more guesswork than meaningful analysis and even if some guys are more confident than I am in their ability to figure out how a guy's game translates across eras I think its impossible to know what their game would actually look like if they were born 25 years earlier or later.


Spoiler:
Oh, and I lied--I'm not the best player in my pick up game. :(
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#46 » by trex_8063 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:58 pm

tsherkin wrote:
I'll simply have to agree to disagree with you on this point. Schayes was never a huge volume scorer, even in that rush-paced era.


Was it, though? A "rush-paced era?"

Schayes' career started in 49-50, roughly a half-decade BEFORE the first shot clock game (the test scrimmage game; the shot clock was implemented for 54-55). His rookie year, his team scored 84.8 ppg and took 82 shots per game.

I think the perception of his career is as if he were part of the 60s, which WERE a much faster era, but that was not really the case.


I'm not trying to ride my statements regarding pace on the reputation of the 60's. Most of the 50's were fast-paced by today's standards, too (the perception that the game was downright sluggish before the advent of the shot-clock is a bit of misconception, blown out of proportion by the famous 19-18 game). Below are the Nats' pace by year (and where it would have ranked in the NBA last year vs. where it ranked in that era). And before I show that, take note that *the fastest paced team in the last TWENTY YEARS in the NBA was the '10 Warriors (at 100.4)......that's the only team that has gone >100 in twenty-some years. 2nd highest was the '08 Nuggets (99.7), 3rd was the '00 Kings (99.3), followed by the '14 Sixers and '07 Warriors (99.2 each). So those are the five fastest-paced teams of the last 20 years. By comparison, here were the Nats during Schayes's career:

'50---> as you noted, they avg 82.44 FGA/g; factoring in turnovers and fouls, their pace was probably in the 92-95 range (teams in 2014 avg 83 FGA/g, league average pace was 93.9).
'51---> 98.1 (tied for 3rd/30, vs. 4th/11)
'52---> 96.1 (7th/30, vs. 5th/10)
'53---> 92.8 (20th/30, vs. 7th/10)
'54---> 93.5 (tied for 16th/30, vs. 1st/10)
'55---> 103.6 (1st/30, vs. 3rd/8)
'56---> 108.5 (1st/30, vs. 5th/8)
'57---> 112.3 (1st/30, vs. 3rd/8)
'58---> 119.1 (1st/30, vs. 4th/8)
'59---> 121.0 (1st/30, vs. 2nd/8)
'60---> 127.2 (1st/30, vs. 3rd/8)
'61---> 129.1 (1st/30, vs. 4th/8)
'62---> 128.8 (1st/30, vs. 3rd/9)
'63---> 123.3 (1st/30, vs. 2nd/9)
'64---> 119.4 (1st/30, vs. 2nd/9)

10 of 15 seasons were played at a pace not seen in the NBA at all in the last 20 years (more than 20, actually). And of the five seasons with a "down to earth" pace by today's standards, two of them would have been near the top pace-wise in the present day league (and the other three not unusually slow).
Even using a low-ball estimate of 92 for the '50 season, the average team pace over his 15-year career was 111.0 (more than 10 above the single HIGHEST team pace seen in the last 20-some years in the NBA). So yeah, I'd call that kinda "rush-paced".
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#47 » by trex_8063 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:42 pm

:vent:

My last (hopefully) little soapbox rant about era portability speculation. I frankly think it engenders recency bias. Basketball is a much (much much MUCH) more popular and global game today than it was 60 years ago. The number of kids growing up practicing basketball with dreams and aspirations of playing in college or the pros is MASSIVE compared to that era. And thus the player pool from which to select pros today is MASSIVE by comparison. So yes, as consequence the average talent in league today is greater. And as consequence of that, talents like Schayes would have a much more difficult time distinguishing themselves as "great" in this modern context. And of consequence of that, era portability is fairly consistently going to be biased toward the recent.

However, this doesn't change the fact that Schayes (and Cousy, Arizin, Mikan, etc) were among the best on the entire planet Earth at playing basketball in their time. I anticipate someone saying something about the lack of integration in the league, and that Schayes (or whoever) wouldn't have been anything special if they had allowed more blacks into the game at that time. But I sincerely doubt that is true. Again: basketball at that time simply didn't yet have the popularity/broad appeal, the cultural resonance with the black American population, nor the perceived potential to provide a means of improving life circumstances. There were not millions upon millions of black youths playing basketball on playgrounds all across urban America with dreams of making it big in the 1930's and early 40's. That would come later.

These guys like Schayes (yes, predominantly white) were indeed among the best of the best---not just the best of the whites---in that time period. How can that account for so little?

If I can make another analogous comparison to an entirely different field......
Orson Welles was a genius as a film-maker. His flare for unraveling a story, his use of set designs, as well as lighting, camera angles, camera motions, varied depth of field lenses, and other innovative employments of cinematography to help set mood/tone, develop a scene, or otherwise distinguish his film from nearly everything else being made at the time.......well, again: he was a genius. In the medium of film he was one of the greatest artists of his era.

To a non-studied casual movie-goer, his techniques may not seem overly special (maybe even routine)......because they've been mimicked or augmented by hundreds of film-makers over several decades since his time. The film-making community and organizations, however, haven't lost sight of his contributions. He's still renowned as one of the most influential writer/directors of all-time, and some of his movies (like Citizen Kane, The Third Man, or Touch of Evil) are still perceived as some of the most innovative and influential (and best) films of all-time. And rightly so, imo.

Perhaps I'm being overly nostalgic, but I feel the basketball giants should be honored similarly. Is all this "era portability" not being blatantly dismissive of them? And how far are we going to take it? With Schayes for instance, suppose we "conclude" that he would only be an average player (and highly unlikely he could be better than a borderline All-Star) in the modern league.......so where does that leave us? Are we then going to declare players like Al Horford, Al Jefferson, Jamal Crawford, Ty Lawson----guys who have likely never once been a top 10 player (sometimes not even top 20) in any given year, and whom will be largely forgotten except by the most devoted and studious of fans within the next 25 years----should ALL be ranked higher all-time than Dolph Schayes (who was a top 8 player in the game for more than a decade solid)?....because hey, they might all be more effective players than he could manage in the modern game.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#48 » by penbeast0 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:27 pm

Dolph Schayes (6) – trex_8063, Clyde Frazier, Owly, DQuinn1575, Moonbeam, Chuck Texas

Kevin McHale (5) -- john248, penbeast0, Doctor MJ, ronnymac2, SactoKingsFan
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#49 » by Basketballefan » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:22 pm

Vote mchale.

Better defender, better scorer and more portable.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#50 » by trex_8063 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:43 am

john248 wrote:I'm not entirely certain I can get behind Schayes. Part of it is ignorance. But looking at that era and can only go by what little is shared, I'd likely side with Arizin here. He comes off as a better offensive player who still looks great in the playoffs with numbers comparable to Pettit.


Not that I disagree with the bolded part, but how is that distinguishing him from Schayes? I've posted the numbers more than once, which show that Schayes performed marginally BETTER in the post-season than in the rs.

H2H comp of playoff numbers:
Arizin single-season best playoff PER: 29.5 (and that was in a mere 3 games---losing series)
Schayes single-season best playoff PER: 29.6 (13-game sample, winning the title)
Seasons with >24 PER in the post-season: Arizin--2, Schayes--5.
Seasons with >22 PER in post-season: Arizin--2, Schayes--8
Arizin career playoff PER: 20.3
Schayes career playoff PER: 23.3
Arizin single-season best playoff WS/48: .262
Schayes single-season best playoff WS/48: .299 (actually has THREE seasons north of .262)
Arizin career playoff WS/48: .183
Schayes career playoff WS/48: .189

Frankly, Schayes for the most part appears pretty clearly ahead of Arizin in post-season performance.

john248 wrote:His NBA.com bio mentions that he was a good defender too, so he, at least, has the 2-way player in his favor. I don't see much in regards to Schayes defense other than his teams had 1 defensive guard and 1 defensive forward which I am only to assume that Schayes filled the offensive forward spot. This isn't to say that he sucked as a defender if some are calling him solid. But I haven't found anything that praises him in this regard; correct me if I'm wrong.


Post 52 from the #43 thread:

Owly wrote:The Positives
Championship NBA, by Leonard Koppett, from 1970 wrote:Schayes: At 6-8, Dolph was probably the best-rounded player of his size. He was an outstanding two-handed shooter from outside, and a first-rate driver, rebounder, defender. He blended perfectly with the flow of smaller men, and made Syracuse a champion (in 1955) and perennial threat. {This is Koppett's Scayes profile in a section naming him one of the top 9 NBA players to that point]

The Winners, by Howard Liss, from 1968, updated 1971 wrote:... His foul flip shot was deadly, his defensive skill unquestioned

Plus The Basketball Rating Handbook by Robert Kalich (from 1970) rated him as a 9 on D (higher than any non-active forward; only Sanders from then active forwards was a 10, there were no other 9s at forward; ignoring position the following were 10s Jerry West, Walt Frazier, Tom Sanders, Bill Russell, K.C. Jones; rated 9 were Jerry Sloan, Wilt Chamberlain, Nate Thurmond, Slater Martin and Dolph Schayes)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#51 » by tsherkin » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:12 am

We're in a run-off now, I suppose.

Vote: Kevin McHale

Not a huge fan of McHale as a first-option franchise player, but he was an exceptionally good PF nevertheless. Massive defensive utility, hyper-efficient scoring (granted, single coverage, and that's part of why I've not considered him until around this period in the project), but loads of moves and his efficiency maintained well enough in Bird's absence when it was mostly him and Parish as the main guys. Key contributor, some big moments, etc, etc. He was a very good player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#52 » by tsherkin » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:21 am

trex_8063 wrote:However, this doesn't change the fact that Schayes (and Cousy, Arizin, Mikan, etc) were among the best on the entire planet Earth at playing basketball in their time. I anticipate someone saying something about the lack of integration in the league, and that Schayes (or whoever) wouldn't have been anything special if they had allowed more blacks into the game at that time. But I sincerely doubt that is true. Again: basketball at that time simply didn't yet have the popularity/broad appeal, the cultural resonance with the black American population, nor the perceived potential to provide a means of improving life circumstances. There were not millions upon millions of black youths playing basketball on playgrounds all across urban America with dreams of making it big in the 1930's and early 40's. That would come later.

These guys like Schayes (yes, predominantly white) were indeed among the best of the best---not just the best of the whites---in that time period. How can that account for so little?


This doesn't make sense. He didn't compete at that point against a significant body of what now makes up the primary population source in professional basketball. That is not a substantive basis for saying he was among the best of the best beyond the Caucasian population at all. In fact, it explicitly points out that he wasn't REALLY tested against the best of the best of the AfroCaribbean-American population, because they weren't actually in the league in volume.

Yes, Schayes was among the best in the game in a time when the invention of the shot-clock happened a half-decade into his career, the widened lane changed things under the paint, there was no 3pt line, Bill Russell revolutionized the league with his rebounding and by aggressively blocking shots, etc, etc. It wasn't really the same game played now. You yourself called his projected contemporary self something similar to a "rich man's Chandler Parsons," which says a ton about what he might be in this contemporary environment.

Now, you choose to look at in-era efficacy only, and that's fine. That's a defensible and understandable position. But what does that mean compared to a player who did around as much in the contemporary environment? With a deeper population base producing talent, with a more athletic league, with the difference in the general way the game is played? Etc, etc, etc. Stuff like that matters to the portability crew, so this is a conceptual divide. And that's cool, because it brings about neat conversation and specifically unearths some stuff about era-specific factors and all of that.


Are we then going to declare players like Al Horford, Al Jefferson, Jamal Crawford, Ty Lawson----guys who have likely never once been a top 10 player (sometimes not even top 20) in any given year, and whom will be largely forgotten except by the most devoted and studious of fans within the next 25 years----should ALL be ranked higher all-time than Dolph Schayes (who was a top 8 player in the game for more than a decade solid)?....because hey, they might all be more effective players than he could manage in the modern game.


These are disingenuous examples.

Al Jefferson wouldn't be MORE efficient in the previous era. He's not especially athletic, and he's inefficient by our contemporary standards. He would go back then and be very likely the same player he is now, though perhaps on higher volume depending on the total number of possessions he used.

Jamal Crawford would be substantially worse, because his entire utility is based around his 3pt shooting, which wouldn't exist. Ty Lawson is in a similar boat, taking 4+ 3s per game to produce his brand of efficient offense. I understand your point, but these were not strong examples with which to support said point.

In any case, a nice post and a good read. Disagree though we might, I look forward to reading your responses.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#53 » by penbeast0 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:02 am

Calling it for McHAle, 7-6
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #44 -- Dolph Schayes v. Kevin McHale 

Post#54 » by tsherkin » Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:11 am

Narrow victory, but McHale is a suitable candidate.

Victory aside, someone should put trex's last few posts in a PC Board Post HOF for his era discussion.

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