Peaks Project: #1

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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#41 » by trex_8063 » Sun Sep 6, 2015 8:37 pm

Quotatious wrote:
Oh, and one more thing - I can't really see peak Shaq over LeBron. We have a lot of numbers for both guys (not just boxscore, but also RAPM), and LeBron beats Shaq in vast majority of those stats. Same with MJ and Shaq (except we don't have RAPM for late 80s/early 90s MJ).


True, but it's not as though Lebron's advantage in metrics like PER or WS/48 are super-substantial (in most instances they're quite tiny, actually). And note that those are all per-unit of playing time stats; in any of the potential peak Bron seasons ('09, '12, or '13), Lebron was playing between 37.5-37.9 mpg in the rs, and somewhere between 41.4-42.7 mpg in the playoffs........Shaq was playing 40.0 mpg in the rs and 43.5 mpg in the playoffs.

Also, I feel peak Shaq effected the opposing defenses to a higher degree than Lebron ever has:
*Shaq's defender would have to meet him at the FT-line or higher to slow his progress in getting toward the block (perimeter defenders would occasionally side-step in to throw a shoulder into him, too, as he came up the court). Anything they could do to hinder his progress, make him tired, get him frustrated, or otherwise nudge him a few inches further from the hoop than he wanted to be or force him to hurry when he did get the ball.....they did it.
**He would, with some regularity, get flashes of double-teaming before he even received the ball.
***Then he would pretty consistently be double or even triple-teamed once he did get the ball (basically the entire opposing defense would collapse on him). Honestly, I think you can make a case that peak Shaq warped defenses more than any other player in the modern era.
And he was routinely taking brutal amounts of contact, amounts which were frankly not allowed against basically anyone else. The refs appeared to simply allow it when it was against Shaq, because he was so much larger and more powerful than the guys hitting him......Shaq was able to absorb the contact without much show of just how hard the contact was, it's like the refs fooled themselves into thinking he really hadn't been hit that hard after all.

I'm not sure Lebron would have been capable of 31+ PER's and .300+ WS/48 if he was getting double and triple-teamed (and mauled) nearly every possession.

Additionally, Shaq's defense in '00 was pretty excellent. Lakers had the #1 defense in the league that year (better even than the Duncan/DRob-led Spurs), in a no small part thanks to their anchor.

And Kobe aside, I'm not overly impressed with the supporting cast on the Lakers that year: Kobe is excellent defensively this year, but is decidedly BEFORE his offensive game had crested (he also missed 16 rs games and 1 playoff game that year). The 3rd-best player is an early post-prime Glen Rice; 4th-best is probably either an ancient Ron Harper or Robert Horry (who was only playing 6th-man minutes). Next best is an ancient A.C. Green, and then there's a scattering of pretty mediocre characters after that. He led this squad to not only the best defensive rating, but the 5th-rated offense, 67 wins (+8.41 SRS) and a title (and they had to go thru a really solid Trailblazer team to get there, too).

Anyway, those are few things in my mind as far as reasoning why I've tentatively put Shaq's peak higher.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#42 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Sep 6, 2015 8:39 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:So first to note I see a lot of people going 1. Jordan 2. Shaq 3. LBJ, which leaves me a little confused as to how exactly you developed enough nuance to weigh things like that easily.

Okay, I'm going to handle Jordan/LBJ as a tandem, since basically we're arguing the best 2-way wing peaks against the most dominant offensive big ever. 

So the argument for the wings is generally: influence. There's no denying a perimeter guy can bring the ball up the floor, it's less costly to get them their shots, and they have a more versatile way to score.

Here's my thing: when you're as unstoppable as Shaq, why does that matter? First, is Shaq truly that dominant? Yes, IMO. Take those at rim numbers, and consider that a lot of Shaq's attempts there were actually off of post ups. If Shaq got a deal seal anywhere without 6 feet or so, that's almost literally a 100% efficacy play. Shaq out of isolation was as dominant as lots of players are in transition, and certainly far more effective than any other isolation scorer has ever been. If we're talking return on investment, there is nothing better than peak Shaq. 

So generally I don't think people disagree with the premise above, right? So if you accept that, how much of a leap is it to say...

A player who is that damn dangerous just needs to be defended differently. Keeping him away from the rim becomes the defenses only lifeline. The difference here is that you can't freaking stop Shaq from getting there. You have to hit him, send doubles, drop your guards, and generally compromise your entire strategy. Because when Shaq gets a deep seal, it's over completely. Like, there is no more sure thing in NBA history. 

So yeah, defenses have to be keyed in to his every move. And unlike LeHron or Jordan, who like to dribble around the top of the key, Shaq is doing this just by being present. A perimeter creator like Kobe can do his thing unimpeded while the defense is already so compromised by he insane gravity Shaq creates. 

Seriously, no player has drawn more doubles, caused more fouls (and,like, fouled out entire front lines, an underrated effect). He was an excellent passer too. 

But it mainly comes down to this: there is always something in the back of your mind with Shaq. You can't let up for a freaking second because it's more costly to let him free than any other player ever. The guy exerts so much influence off ball that the traditional downsides of a post player just don't apply. 

Also: LBJ and Jordan were great perimeter defenders. And when they turned it up trapping and stealing, they were unstoppable. But in terms of per-possession Impact over the long run, can you really argue either of them over peak Shaq defensively?

What's your current position on KAJ? Not the same at-rim scorer as Shaq (so maybe there's not as much warping of defenses), so it's understandable if that's the difference. I think we also had a thread awhile back discussing KAJ/Magic, and how the offenses tended to improve as KAJ's primacy was reduced.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#43 » by ShotCreator » Sun Sep 6, 2015 8:41 pm

PCProductions wrote:My main question about 1991 Jordan is mainly around how great the playoff competition was. You had a Pistons team whose wheels seemed to fall of and a clearly past their prime Lakers team in the Finals. I think this is important if we're placing a lot of importance on playoff runs.

This is why I would say 1990 Jordan was better than '91. He took the team to similar heights (Playoffs) with a significantly worse supporting cast, while having marginally better or worse production, against much tougher teams in the PS compared to 1991.

The general feeling on '90 Jordan was that it was his first year of not being distracted by the aesthetics of his game and not being obsessed with padding his boxscore numbers like the year before.

He was bringing whatever his team needed from him to win.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#44 » by SactoKingsFan » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:02 pm

Haven't figured out the exact order, but I've narrowed down my top 3 candidates to 91 Jordan, 09 or 13 LeBron and 00 Shaq. Leaning towards Jordan for my 1st ballot. 91 Jordan looks like the most complete combination of skill set, level of play during RS+PS and physical and mental ability.

I have Shaq and LeBron pretty much tied at #2. 2000 Shaq clearly dominated on offense, had his best defensive season (legit DPOY candidate) and had a great playoff run. LeBron's physical peak was 09, but I think I prefer 13 as his peak since he was a more complete player. 13 LeBron was close enough to his physical peak and his all around game had developed/matured quite a bit since 09.

I'll submit my official vote with more details when I'm at a computer and after I've figured out my 2nd and 3rd ballot.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#45 » by trex_8063 » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:11 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:Playoff opponent DRTG

Jordan
Knicks - 107.3 DRTG
Sixers - 108.1 DRTG
Pistons - 104.6 DRTG
Lakers - 105.0 DRTG
Average - 106.3 DRTG

Lebron
Pistons - 108.0 DRTG
Hawks - 107.6 DRTG
Magic - 101.9 DRTG
Average - 105.8 DRTG

Shaq
Kings - 102.1 DRTG
Suns - 99.0 DRTG
Blazers - 100.8 DRTG
Pacers - 103.6 DRTG
Average - 101.4 DRTG

Shaq played much tougher defenses than Jordan and Lebron in the playoffs


Be careful with this type of reasoning. Various era trends (rule changes, offensive/defensive schemes, talent pool in the league, etc) can influence league average ORtg/DRtg. So raw ORtg/DRtg might not be the most appropriate measure.

Example: On his way to the '65 title, Russell and the Celtics faced the Sixers (94.2 DRtg) and the Lakers (95.8 DRtg). So was he playing against MUCH tougher defenses than Shaq was in '00? Probably not, considering the Sixers were ranked just 5th of 9 teams defensively, and the Lakers were 6th! A variety of factors has since shifted average ORtg/DRtg's much higher in the modern era.

Obviously '65 was a long long time ago; but there is a 9-year gap between each of the samples you've cited above; a lot can change in 9 years (a lot can change within just 1-2 years, with the right rule changes).


Below are the same sample seasons as you've cited above, but instead of raw DRtg, I'll use relative to league avg and league rank:

Jordan '91
Knicks: -0.6 (12th of 27)
Sixers: +0.2 (16th of 27)
Pistons: -3.3 (4th of 27)
Lakers: -2.9 (5th of 27)
Avg: -1.65, ranked 9.25 of 27

Lebron '09
Pistons: -0.3 (16th of 30)
Hawks: -0.7 (12th of 30)
Magic: -6.4 (1st of 30)
Avg: -2.47, ranked 9.67 of 30

Shaq `00
Kings: -2.0 (10th of 29)
Suns: -5.1 (3rd of 29)
Blazers: -3.3 (5th of 29)
Pacers: -0.5 (13th of 29)
Avg: -2.73, ranked 7.75 of 29

So it still appears that Shaq had the tougher road as far as opposing defenses, but not by anywhere near the margin you were implying (in fact, almost negligibly tougher than what Lebron faced).
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#46 » by Quotatious » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:14 pm

Everything Spaceman said about Shaq makes sense, and it's hard to disagree with anything.

That being said, I think it's unfair to expect a wing to attract as much defensive attention (double and triple teams on most possessions, like Spaceman said) as a 7'1'', 325 lbs center with GOAT level athleticism. That's just the nature of the game - a guy like Shaq plays center, plays very close to the basket (basically "12 feet in" almost all the time), it's totally normal that teams could try to double him and still be able to recover at times if he kicked the ball out of a double team to an open shooter. You couldn't hope to do the same with Jordan or James because they attack from the perimeter, and usually from a face-up position. That means they are going to see almost the entire court if you send a double team, and with their great passing ability, you're at their mercy, just like it is the case with Shaq, if you leave him isolated 1 on 1 in the post.

I would also argue that MJ/LBJ had to beat more defenders on their way to the basket than Shaq had to. They faced perimeter defense AND rim protectors (if they did beat their man on the perimeter).

As far as drawing fouls...Shaq has the edge over Jordan, but LeBron is pretty much equal with him (Shaq averaged more FTA in the regular season, LeBron averaged more in the playoffs). All of them were absolutely elite in this regard. As efficient as Shaq was in terms of scoring, Mike and Bron were more efficient based on TS%, with very comparable usage.

Theonlyclutch makes a good point - Shaq indeed faced tougher defenses than MJ and LBJ. That's something to think about, definitely (both Jordan and James had seasons when they faced better defenses than those 106 DRtg teams, though). Well, obviously the early 00s were tougher defensively than the early 90s or late 00s, so unadjusted DRtg's are going to be lower in the early 00s.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#47 » by theonlyclutch » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:17 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
theonlyclutch wrote:Playoff opponent DRTG

Jordan
Knicks - 107.3 DRTG
Sixers - 108.1 DRTG
Pistons - 104.6 DRTG
Lakers - 105.0 DRTG
Average - 106.3 DRTG

Lebron
Pistons - 108.0 DRTG
Hawks - 107.6 DRTG
Magic - 101.9 DRTG
Average - 105.8 DRTG

Shaq
Kings - 102.1 DRTG
Suns - 99.0 DRTG
Blazers - 100.8 DRTG
Pacers - 103.6 DRTG
Average - 101.4 DRTG

Shaq played much tougher defenses than Jordan and Lebron in the playoffs


Be careful with this type of reasoning. Various era trends (rule changes, offensive/defensive schemes, talent pool in the league, etc) can influence league average ORtg/DRtg. So raw ORtg/DRtg might not be the most appropriate measure.

Example: On his way to the '65 title, Russell and the Celtics faced the Sixers (94.2 DRtg) and the Lakers (95.8 DRtg). So was he playing against MUCH tougher defenses than Shaq was in '00? Probably not, considering the Sixers were ranked just 5th of 9 teams defensively, and the Lakers were 6th! A variety of factors has since shifted average ORtg/DRtg's much higher in the modern era.

Obviously '65 was a long long time ago; but there is a 9-year gap between each of the samples you've cited above; a lot can change in 9 years (a lot can change within just 1-2 years, with the right rule changes).


Below are the same sample seasons as you've cited above, but instead of raw DRtg, I'll use relative to league avg and league rank:

Jordan '91
Knicks: -0.6 (12th of 27)
Sixers: +0.2 (16th of 27)
Pistons: -3.3 (4th of 27)
Lakers: -2.9 (5th of 27)
Avg: -1.65, ranked 9.25 of 27

Lebron '09
Pistons: -0.3 (16th of 30)
Hawks: -0.7 (12th of 30)
Magic: -6.4 (1st of 30)
Avg: -2.47, ranked 9.67 of 30

Shaq `00
Kings: -2.0 (10th of 29)
Suns: -5.1 (3rd of 29)
Blazers: -3.3 (5th of 29)
Pacers: -0.5 (13th of 29)
Avg: -2.73, ranked 7.75 of 29

So it still appears that Shaq had the tougher road as far as opposing defenses, but not by anywhere near the margin you were implying (in fact, almost negligibly tougher than what Lebron faced).


I am aware of this, it's just that if people are going to do statistical comparisons of TS%, ORTG, on an absolute basis, the absolute DRTGs of the teams would be the most apt thing to put these stats in context
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#48 » by trex_8063 » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:31 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:I am aware of this, it's just that if people are going to do statistical comparisons of TS%, ORTG, on an absolute basis, the absolute DRTGs of the teams would be the most apt thing to put these stats in context


Fair enough. In some instances comparing TS%, ORtg absolutes can be appropriate. I tend to list relatives anyway, and like using ORtg/DRtg gap for an individuals; but there are instances were comparing the raw can be appropriate (there's barely any difference in league avg ORtg/DRtg or TS% between '91 and '09, for instance).

But '00 (the year in question for Shaq) is another story. The NBA was getting mired in a lot of slowed down pace and excessive isolation play in the late 90's and early 00's, which led to a drop in both TS% and [not surprisingly, as they tend to go hand-in-hand] ORtg/DRtg. So I didn't feel the manner in which you presented that data [and the conclusion you implied] was quite accurate.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#49 » by trex_8063 » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:37 pm

The-Power wrote:It's a tough choice for me because unlike other people I don't consider Jordan to be the runaway favorite.


I don't think many consider him a runaway favorite.

Speaking for myself.....
Don't let my "the GOAT player in his best all-around season" statement fool you. I didn't mean that be a substantial core of a my reasons (like I can just wash my hands of the debate after stating that.......maybe I should delete that statement entirely).

It actually was quite a tough choice for me. And for many of the same reasons I stated in post #41, I nearly put Shaq ahead of Jordan, too. But Jordan bore some of the same difficulties Shaq did, in the way of defenses warping to swarm him ("the Jordan Rules"), teams mercilessly hammering him in ways which would not be allowed today (Pistons, Riley's Knicks), and also managed to do what he did in an era of lesser spacing and legal hand-checking......remarkable.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#50 » by The-Power » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:58 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
The-Power wrote:It's a tough choice for me because unlike other people I don't consider Jordan to be the runaway favorite.


I don't think many consider him a runaway favorite.

Speaking for myself.....
Don't let my "the GOAT player in his best all-around season" statement fool you. I didn't mean that be a substantial core of a my reasons (like I can just wash my hands of the debate after stating that.......maybe I should delete that statement entirely).

It actually was quite a tough choice for me. And for many of the same reasons I stated in post #41, I nearly put Shaq ahead of Jordan, too. But Jordan bore some of the same difficulties Shaq did, in the way of defenses warping to swarm him ("the Jordan Rules"), teams mercilessly hammering him in ways which would not be allowed today (Pistons, Riley's Knicks), and also managed to do what he did in an era of lesser spacing and legal hand-checking......remarkable.


It wasn't directed at you (actually, had no particular poster in mind when I wrote that), don't worry. And you're right, here are a lot of reasonable posters and I do believe anyone can at least see and accept arguments for other players. On a second thought, I could have easily left the second part out of my statement. It's rather true when it comes to the casual fan and less in this setting.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#51 » by Joao Saraiva » Sun Sep 6, 2015 9:58 pm

Can everyone vote? Can I vote? I'd like to participate in this project.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#52 » by theonlyclutch » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:01 pm

Personally, I echo what Dr. Spaceman observed, in that the stylistic differences between the two wings and Shaq make it so that it is difficult to seperate the Jordan/Lebron pairing, i.e any ranking that puts Shaq's peak above Lebron's should also put it above Jordan's, and vice-versa.

However, it would be prudent to think very seriously about what exactly are we trying to compare here, a phrase that an admin put on the site "impact = goodness + fit" describes this in a nutshell, this distinction is very important, for example, '13 Lebron may have more "goodness" than 09 Lebron (more well-rounded game, better off-ball), but because of lesser "fit" (presence of on-ball playmaker in '13 vs loads of shooters in '09), his impact may very well be less in '13 than '09. I personally define the peak as impact in an individual season, but this is something interesting for the posters on this thread to think about.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#53 » by Owly » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:16 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:Can everyone vote? Can I vote? I'd like to participate in this project.

Posts 30 and 31 in this thread

Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
BasketballFan7 wrote:1. 91 Jordan
2. 13 James
3. 00 Shaq


LoyalKing wrote:Should have taken 2012 Lebron here

Lebron falls short against MJ and Shaq in the Finals. People should really watch that series again to realize how much better Lebron was in 2012 compared to 2013, especially in the Finals.

I'll have to go with

1 - MJ
2 - Shaq
3 - Lebron


You've not yet "signed up" or expressed desire to be in the voter pool for this project. If you want to participate, that's fine; please first go to the Interest and Metathinking thread for this project and at the very least read the OP, post #82, and post #89 to get the gist of how this will work.

And no ballots will be counted without some manner of reasoning and demonstrated willingness to contribute to the discussion.


trex_8063 wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:[spoiler]Well this can go 1 of 3 ways.

You can go with Jordan 91

you can do a fastball and say michael jordan

or you can swing a curveball by saying michael Jeffrey Jordan.


For Jordan, I believe its the fact that he could do so much that no one could see.

ill just add my arguement in another page here.
I believe that he does alot of things that no one sees, which is a testament to his bball iq, and his overall skillset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8MP6839B78

ill just put in a few plays where I think jordan is underrated in bball iq

in 2:20, the timing of his jab step was superb. he pretty much time it exactly as his defender was coming off the screen, so he was rushing back to get to jordan, and was left off balance. the window to use this jab step to basically get him off-balance, in this situation, was literally less than half a second. the defender had to over commit to one side, and jordan simply bursted past him in the other side.
in around 2:30, he made a really subtle head fake. while this by itself is quite normal, though the way he did it was quick and pretty much perfect, the important thing to note is that there was a guard literally right next to him that had barely even started running to the corner, making it seem much more legitimate. he basically read what his teammate was going to do before his teammate himself knew it.

in 3:48 ish, there was a really subtle head fake. it was hard to see even when slowing down teh video to 0.25 speed, that got the defender leaning. not only that, but he did a push through crossover that really was just long enough to avoid the defenders hands, but short enough that jordan kept full control/full speed. considering that he scored over 1.9ppp in transition according to some studies, it seems like he would do this on a majority of his transition plays, its just so hard to see. Its more clearly seen int eh 4 minute mark, and its obvious that the defender expected him to go the other way, as he shifted his foot jsut enough so jordan could get past him.

in 4:50, its another show of how he times his jab steps. he basically timed it as his defender was still approaching him, and his left foot was in the air, which made him lean a little, once again.

in 6:45, this is a reason why I think he was much better in the early ninetys than post baseball. normally, even athletic players like westbrook and Wall start "preparing" their fastbreak shot around teh ft line. They only really prepare it furthur when they are literally completely open, to the point where a clear path foul is possible. With Jordan, he regularly, as long as he had a clear few steps to gather, prepared his transition buckets from the 3 point line, and simply used a mixture of his long arms and long strides to just simply find a perfect angle to jump between the gaps of the defense.

6:53 demonstrates his ability to basically understand the mindset of his defender. it seems just like a simple hesitation, and then a crossover. in my opinion, he did something brilliant. he basically played the whole game at full throttle, either making it a point to really get past the defender completely, with room to spare, or take a jab and swing the other way. What he did here was go at a medium pace. at this point, his defender had basically been manhandled, so he pretty much really overcommitted. had he done this earlier, i doubt this would have worked. his ability to change pace multiple times in one possession was frankly astounding. he basically kept a medium pace this time to pretty much displace his defender, and get to the basket at the same time. Something else, is that he used his patented tounge while going during the hesitation, basically making it seem like he would 100% go at that certain direction. something I find unique is how he kept his head low throughout. imo, other superstars usually keep their head a little bit higher during their hesitation moves, making it seem more obvious imo. (a general concept I learned is the lowest head always wins)

7:25 demonstrates his ingenuity. he uses a referee as a screen. he also gets into an argument with Danny Ainge, basically meaning he would have won if a fight started, and his reputation would have been bolstered.

at around 7:50, he made the most subtle move of the game. first of all, he timed this perfectly, just as his defender was lifting his foot that he wanted to "move away" Secondly, the speed at which he did this head fake was probably the fastest one so far. while he was bringing the ball down. he actually made it seem like he would bring it down to the right, and moved his head very slightly to the right, first, if one slows the footage down and watches frame by frame.



he was just flawless really.



Number 2 would be Shaq. 01
I recall 1 season, the 96-97 season, they were 9th in offfensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.
the next year, with a continuity rate of 80 ish, they were 2nd in off rtg and 1th in def rating.

consider that he wasnt at his peak (he would gain 50-60 ish more pounds)
and we have a winner.



I would guess that I would pick Lebron 09 next, though I rank him wierdly, anywhere from 3rd in peak to below kobe, though thats the fanboy in me most likely.
his box metric (a stat I dont find perfect, but nevertheless) is the highest of all time at his peak. I think that speaks for itself. also, his team won less than 20 games when he left.



Honorable mentions to

Russell (unparalleled defense impact... basically hakeem, taller, faster, with drugs and more athletic, smarter bball iq too, defensively of course. IMO, the myth that wilt would have won 11 championships with russells teams is severly flawed. Wilt couldnt really anchor a bad offensive team to be great, but he could improve a team of course. But the celtic's teams needed defense. I recall that offensively, even with all those hall of famers, they were actually as bad as wilt's teams, well, without wilt in some years.)

- also, did anyone notice the huge offensive rating average increase from the 60s to 70s? 98.1 was good for 4th in the 60s. in the 70s, all of a sudden that became 100.1, and in the very late 70s, 101.6 was good for 19th out of 22.

Wilt (team success is what barred him, but the year he went 17-65, he was on a 48 win team, that had a 76 continuity rate from those 2 years. was it a testament to him trying vs not trying? he had a heart problem that year, but technically, his raw stats were better, so it might be a testement to feeding him being an ineffecient offense. also, the offesne of the 76ers were actually unaffected by his departure, with them recieving archie clark, who scored 13 ppg in 26 minutes, darrell imhoff, who averaged 9 and 10 in 29 minutes, and Jerry Chambers, who averaged 2 seasons of serving hte country, the military, and their offensive rating stayed exactly the same, both in position and in actual rating, though their defense deccreased from 1st to 6th. I recall a book called Basketball on Paper, Rules and Tools for Perormance Analysis, touched on this. in his 8 assists years, when he left, the offensive rating stayed the same.
Something I would like to ask though, how many times has a team's defensive/offensive rating gone down/up because a player left?
I know Mutombo and Rodman had instances of this happening, though in their defense,
Wait, nevermind, I misread the rating, Mutombo with Atlanta was 102, out of atlanta was 111, so I failed on that lol. Rodman didnt improve his team in the last year with the spurs though) - mostly arguing against to justify why I didnt put him in the top 3. the fact that We have to do that cements him in a honerable mention position.
And the question remains... When was his peak? in terms of team impact (bear with me) it could actually be argued that it was his laker years.


Tim Duncan
(literally because I made a pun about someone dunking and his name was coincidently Timothy, so he was, Tim Duncin)
(in terms of Box plus, it was stated by bball reference that players that use communication, leadership, and positioning arent accurately placed and are actually worse than normal in terms of box plus.
but anyway. even in his prime, his leadership qualities might put him over the edge)
In terms of RAPM, I believe that has trouble tracking a few "constants" too. Im not quite sure how it works, but it takes plays from other players and plugs it in right? if thats what it does, then a few problems, in my opinion, are things like, mindset, etc. etc. Im probably wrong about this, but for example, if someone is forced to take 100 shots, in game, (obviously extreme) the curve of shots made will go down for some players more than other "stars"
though it is definately the most intuitive stat.
Also, I beieve that certain variables makes some claims of the stat kind of, well, not accurate.
obviously its one of if not the best stat available, but still.



Definately missed a few


Hello there. I'm not familiar with you as a poster, and I'm certain you'd not expressed interest in participating in "Interest/Metathinking" thread, which is stickied on the front page of the PC forum.

However, I'm willing to enter you into the voting pool immediately based on the content provided above. If you haven't already done so, please read the OP and posts #82 and #89 in the Interest/Metathinking thread.

btw---Since the discussion is perhaps the main point of the project, if you're convinced you've cast your ballots in error, you can change your picks anytime prior to the deadline (roughly Monday night). But if you do, please create a new post alerting me to any changes, as well as making the switch in your original post.
[/Spoiler]

So without representing any authority on the matter (Trex is running it and would confirm officially, whilst I'm merely following the project) yes, if you read the relevent posts in the meta-thinking thread (below) and conform to the rules, for instance with regard to providing reasoning.

OP
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:Hey RealGM'ers, was thinking of starting up a Peaks Project (top 50??) this fall, maybe beginning in early September.

Am posting this thread (penbeast0 is going to sticky it for us) to get an idea if there is adequate interest. I figure we should allow for a voter pool of at least 15-20 people, especially noting how turnout drops off once you get past the top 10-20 places; if there isn't at least that much interest, then it's probably a no go.

Similar to the top 100 project, voters must register here to participate (just state your interest in participating within this thread). Regular/known posters will be allowed in immediately. Though I don't intend to set a minimum post-count requirement, newer (and thus relatively unknown) posters will have to show a willingness (and ability) to contribute meaningful discourse before being officially entered into the voting pool (there's time to prove this willingness and ability before the voting actually starts, since we likely won't get underway for at least a couple weeks).

Here are my thoughts/intentions on other rules and format (open to comments/changes):

a) Top 50 sound in-depth enough to everyone?
b) Reasoning/statistical support, etc required for votes to be counted. A simple list of names will not be counted.
c) As with the top 100 project, I was planning an approximately 48-hour window for voting for each place.
d) Instead of the format we used in the top 100 project (where everybody voted for ONE candidate, and if no consensus was reached we had a 24-hour run-off between the top two vote recipients), I was thinking more like this:
Everyone gives their 1st-ballot choice, 2nd-ballot choice, and 3rd-ballot choice. I'll award 3 pts for a 1st ballot, 2 for a 2nd ballot, and 1 for a 3rd. Highest point-total wins the spot (24-hour run-off will then only be done in the unlikely event of a tie). In this way I'm hoping to cut down the length of time this project will run, as I think that was part of the issue with poor voter turn-out in the late stages of the top 100 project. This format should probably keep each place down to ~48 hours.
e) I noticed on the last project a specified year for each player peak was stated. As there can be disagreement on which year is the peak for certain players (e.g. Lebron--->many think it's '09, many think it's '13 or '12), I propose that player gets credit for all votes he receives in a round, regardless of the year designated. For instance, if in a given round '09 Lebron received 17 pts, and '13 Lebron received 16 pts, and '12 Lebron received 12 pts.....we'll just count that as 45 pts for Lebron. Otherwise it's as though we're penalizing a player for having a longer sustained peak. Anyone disagree?
***I still think it would be worthwhile to designate a year you think is a player's peak, as I'll likely include this info in the list. Just wrt scoring each round, we'll add all vote-receiving years up. Then as we move on, we'll conduct a side thread to debate and vote for the consensus year which represents a player's peak in all instances where there is NOT at least 75% consensus for a specific year.


Please post any thoughts/suggestions, as well as any intent to participate within this thread.

VOTER POOL
trex_8063
Quotatious
70sFan
RSCD_3
Mutnt

SKF_85
Clyde Frazier
eminence
NyCeEvO
Dr. Positivity

SideshowBob
Gregoire
Moonbeam
JordansBulls
PaulieWal

theonlyclutch
The-Power
thizznation
mischievous
LA Bird

yoyoboy
fpliii
MyUniBroDavis


post 82
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Also, are we doing ballots?


Yes. See point "d" of OP: choose a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-ballot choice (which will be "scored" as worth 3, 2, and 1 pts respectively).


NyCeEvO wrote:Hey trex_8063,

I hate to do this but I'm going to have to bow out of being an official voter. After several discussions today, I've confirmed that I'll be way too busy to keep up with this project, let alone be able to give informed, critical opinions.

I'll check in and give my thoughts when I can but I don't think it would be smart of me nor fair to others if I even tried to participate. These next few months are going to be pretty brutal for me work wise.

I hope everything works out! I'll definitely be around when I can sneak a few minutes on the board.


I appreciate the heads up, but I'm going to keep you in the voter pool. Participate when you can.


The-Power wrote:An option would be to set 30 as the first goal, and after the top 30 one targets 50 as the next if there are enough - however defined - voters of the pool left who haven't lost interest/time capacities.


Agree. Let's get to 30 and then see where we're at as far as participation and enthusiasm. I for one think it would be interesting to get out to 40 or 50, though.

The-Power wrote:
We could also ponder on extending the voter pool. I've seen some posters, iirc, who mentioned that they won't participate because they don't have much time to be active in such a project (I will go on research this month myself and don't know about internet-access and time left yet). But I would simply allow 'quality-users' to vote whenever they can regardless of their activity-level. One other option would be to contact the knowledgeable and reasonable posters of the team-boards - although I don't know how many guys there are when it comes to historical players who aren't active on the PC board already. And even on this board there are some usually active and good posters left who neither confirmed their participation nor declared their non-participation - are we sure they know about the project?


Expansion of the voter pool can continue while the project is in process. And known quality posters will be allowed in immediately should they decide they want to participate. The official voter pool list (and cautions against unknowns) is mostly to protect against trolls and agenda-mongers from jumping in out of nowhere.

btw, I like your idea of data sharing, though time commitment to doing so is a bit of an issue.. I have extensive per 100 possession estimates for many pre-1974 players (along with relative TS%), as well as some with/without data for many players from pre-impact data eras. I'd been sharing a touch of that with eminence via PM (at his request). I can share some of that with everyone, if there's interest.

PaulieWal wrote:Do we have a start date for the project?


I intend to start the project on Sunday (unsure if in morning or evening, since we're talking about approximately 36 hrs per thread). Everyone be on the watch for the thread on Sunday.

btw---as it seems to be the consensus of opinion, we'll go with shot-clock era only (ABA can be included). And although I'd not officially restricted the project to encompass only North American pro basketball leagues, I'd at least suggest restricting opinions to that, just because of the general lack of data and knowledge regarding foreign leagues. As a result I think casting a ballot somewhere for a young Arvydas Sabonis, for instance, is essentially wasting a ballot......I doubt he's going to garner enough support due to all the mystery and lack of information and informed opinion.

Quotatious wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

RSCD_3 wrote:.

Mutnt wrote:.

SKF_85 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

theonlyclutch wrote:.

thizznation wrote:.


post 89
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
mischievous wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Done.
If you haven't already done so, please read thoroughly thru the OP, as well as post #82 (at the very least) to get the gist of how this will work.

Already did. But to get clarity, when a spot is won by a player there won't be a year attached to them because of the disagreements on the year correct?



Correct. A player is going to get credit for all ballots cast for him in a voting round, regardless of the year specified. However, since I would like to recognize which year people attach the most value to, we will generally be having a side-thread to determine consensus on his peak year after he's been voted in (that is: a thread that is running alongside the peaks project at the same time, so that we don't have to delay moving on to the next place/rank in the peaks project while determining the year).

Which reminds me, I meant to put this forth in post #82: I propose that if there is 75+% consensus on a player's peak within the primary thread in which he gets voted in, that we NOT bother with a side-thread. If, otoh, we have less <75% consensus, I'll conduct a side-thread in which people can make their case for one year over another and officially cast their opinion/vote on which year is his best.

Example: suppose when Magic Johnson gets voted in, there are 15 ballots cast for him--->13 are for '87, and two are for '89.....even though it's not unanimous, I propose we simply declare '87 the consensus peak year WITHOUT conducting a side thread (i.e. save the side-threads for when it's actually somewhat close).

Reasonable?
SideshowBob wrote:.



NyCeEvO wrote:.



The-Power wrote:.


PaulieWal wrote:.


Quotatious wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

RSCD_3 wrote:.

Mutnt wrote:.

SKF_85 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

theonlyclutch wrote:.

thizznation wrote:.
Owly
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,765
And1: 3,213
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#54 » by Owly » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:18 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:Can everyone vote? Can I vote? I'd like to participate in this project.

Posts 30 and 31 in this thread

Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
BasketballFan7 wrote:...


LoyalKing wrote:...


You've not yet "signed up" or expressed desire to be in the voter pool for this project. If you want to participate, that's fine; please first go to the Interest and Metathinking thread for this project and at the very least read the OP, post #82, and post #89 to get the gist of how this will work.

And no ballots will be counted without some manner of reasoning and demonstrated willingness to contribute to the discussion.


trex_8063 wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:...


Hello there. I'm not familiar with you as a poster, and I'm certain you'd not expressed interest in participating in "Interest/Metathinking" thread, which is stickied on the front page of the PC forum.

However, I'm willing to enter you into the voting pool immediately based on the content provided above. If you haven't already done so, please read the OP and posts #82 and #89 in the Interest/Metathinking thread.

btw---Since the discussion is perhaps the main point of the project, if you're convinced you've cast your ballots in error, you can change your picks anytime prior to the deadline (roughly Monday night). But if you do, please create a new post alerting me to any changes, as well as making the switch in your original post.


So without representing any authority on the matter (Trex is running it and would confirm officially, whilst I'm merely following the project) yes, if you read the relevent posts in the meta-thinking thread (below) and conform to the rules, for instance with regard to providing reasoning.

OP
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:Hey RealGM'ers, was thinking of starting up a Peaks Project (top 50??) this fall, maybe beginning in early September.

Am posting this thread (penbeast0 is going to sticky it for us) to get an idea if there is adequate interest. I figure we should allow for a voter pool of at least 15-20 people, especially noting how turnout drops off once you get past the top 10-20 places; if there isn't at least that much interest, then it's probably a no go.

Similar to the top 100 project, voters must register here to participate (just state your interest in participating within this thread). Regular/known posters will be allowed in immediately. Though I don't intend to set a minimum post-count requirement, newer (and thus relatively unknown) posters will have to show a willingness (and ability) to contribute meaningful discourse before being officially entered into the voting pool (there's time to prove this willingness and ability before the voting actually starts, since we likely won't get underway for at least a couple weeks).

Here are my thoughts/intentions on other rules and format (open to comments/changes):

a) Top 50 sound in-depth enough to everyone?
b) Reasoning/statistical support, etc required for votes to be counted. A simple list of names will not be counted.
c) As with the top 100 project, I was planning an approximately 48-hour window for voting for each place.
d) Instead of the format we used in the top 100 project (where everybody voted for ONE candidate, and if no consensus was reached we had a 24-hour run-off between the top two vote recipients), I was thinking more like this:
Everyone gives their 1st-ballot choice, 2nd-ballot choice, and 3rd-ballot choice. I'll award 3 pts for a 1st ballot, 2 for a 2nd ballot, and 1 for a 3rd. Highest point-total wins the spot (24-hour run-off will then only be done in the unlikely event of a tie). In this way I'm hoping to cut down the length of time this project will run, as I think that was part of the issue with poor voter turn-out in the late stages of the top 100 project. This format should probably keep each place down to ~48 hours.
e) I noticed on the last project a specified year for each player peak was stated. As there can be disagreement on which year is the peak for certain players (e.g. Lebron--->many think it's '09, many think it's '13 or '12), I propose that player gets credit for all votes he receives in a round, regardless of the year designated. For instance, if in a given round '09 Lebron received 17 pts, and '13 Lebron received 16 pts, and '12 Lebron received 12 pts.....we'll just count that as 45 pts for Lebron. Otherwise it's as though we're penalizing a player for having a longer sustained peak. Anyone disagree?
***I still think it would be worthwhile to designate a year you think is a player's peak, as I'll likely include this info in the list. Just wrt scoring each round, we'll add all vote-receiving years up. Then as we move on, we'll conduct a side thread to debate and vote for the consensus year which represents a player's peak in all instances where there is NOT at least 75% consensus for a specific year.


Please post any thoughts/suggestions, as well as any intent to participate within this thread.

VOTER POOL
trex_8063
Quotatious
70sFan
RSCD_3
Mutnt

SKF_85
Clyde Frazier
eminence
NyCeEvO
Dr. Positivity

SideshowBob
Gregoire
Moonbeam
JordansBulls
PaulieWal

theonlyclutch
The-Power
thizznation
mischievous
LA Bird

yoyoboy
fpliii
MyUniBroDavis


post 82
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Also, are we doing ballots?


Yes. See point "d" of OP: choose a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-ballot choice (which will be "scored" as worth 3, 2, and 1 pts respectively).


NyCeEvO wrote:Hey trex_8063,

I hate to do this but I'm going to have to bow out of being an official voter. After several discussions today, I've confirmed that I'll be way too busy to keep up with this project, let alone be able to give informed, critical opinions.

I'll check in and give my thoughts when I can but I don't think it would be smart of me nor fair to others if I even tried to participate. These next few months are going to be pretty brutal for me work wise.

I hope everything works out! I'll definitely be around when I can sneak a few minutes on the board.


I appreciate the heads up, but I'm going to keep you in the voter pool. Participate when you can.


The-Power wrote:An option would be to set 30 as the first goal, and after the top 30 one targets 50 as the next if there are enough - however defined - voters of the pool left who haven't lost interest/time capacities.


Agree. Let's get to 30 and then see where we're at as far as participation and enthusiasm. I for one think it would be interesting to get out to 40 or 50, though.

The-Power wrote:
We could also ponder on extending the voter pool. I've seen some posters, iirc, who mentioned that they won't participate because they don't have much time to be active in such a project (I will go on research this month myself and don't know about internet-access and time left yet). But I would simply allow 'quality-users' to vote whenever they can regardless of their activity-level. One other option would be to contact the knowledgeable and reasonable posters of the team-boards - although I don't know how many guys there are when it comes to historical players who aren't active on the PC board already. And even on this board there are some usually active and good posters left who neither confirmed their participation nor declared their non-participation - are we sure they know about the project?


Expansion of the voter pool can continue while the project is in process. And known quality posters will be allowed in immediately should they decide they want to participate. The official voter pool list (and cautions against unknowns) is mostly to protect against trolls and agenda-mongers from jumping in out of nowhere.

btw, I like your idea of data sharing, though time commitment to doing so is a bit of an issue.. I have extensive per 100 possession estimates for many pre-1974 players (along with relative TS%), as well as some with/without data for many players from pre-impact data eras. I'd been sharing a touch of that with eminence via PM (at his request). I can share some of that with everyone, if there's interest.

PaulieWal wrote:Do we have a start date for the project?


I intend to start the project on Sunday (unsure if in morning or evening, since we're talking about approximately 36 hrs per thread). Everyone be on the watch for the thread on Sunday.

btw---as it seems to be the consensus of opinion, we'll go with shot-clock era only (ABA can be included). And although I'd not officially restricted the project to encompass only North American pro basketball leagues, I'd at least suggest restricting opinions to that, just because of the general lack of data and knowledge regarding foreign leagues. As a result I think casting a ballot somewhere for a young Arvydas Sabonis, for instance, is essentially wasting a ballot......I doubt he's going to garner enough support due to all the mystery and lack of information and informed opinion.

Quotatious wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

RSCD_3 wrote:.

Mutnt wrote:.

SKF_85 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

theonlyclutch wrote:.

thizznation wrote:.


post 89
Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
mischievous wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Done.
If you haven't already done so, please read thoroughly thru the OP, as well as post #82 (at the very least) to get the gist of how this will work.

Already did. But to get clarity, when a spot is won by a player there won't be a year attached to them because of the disagreements on the year correct?



Correct. A player is going to get credit for all ballots cast for him in a voting round, regardless of the year specified. However, since I would like to recognize which year people attach the most value to, we will generally be having a side-thread to determine consensus on his peak year after he's been voted in (that is: a thread that is running alongside the peaks project at the same time, so that we don't have to delay moving on to the next place/rank in the peaks project while determining the year).

Which reminds me, I meant to put this forth in post #82: I propose that if there is 75+% consensus on a player's peak within the primary thread in which he gets voted in, that we NOT bother with a side-thread. If, otoh, we have less <75% consensus, I'll conduct a side-thread in which people can make their case for one year over another and officially cast their opinion/vote on which year is his best.

Example: suppose when Magic Johnson gets voted in, there are 15 ballots cast for him--->13 are for '87, and two are for '89.....even though it's not unanimous, I propose we simply declare '87 the consensus peak year WITHOUT conducting a side thread (i.e. save the side-threads for when it's actually somewhat close).

Reasonable?
SideshowBob wrote:.



NyCeEvO wrote:.



The-Power wrote:.


PaulieWal wrote:.


Quotatious wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

RSCD_3 wrote:.

Mutnt wrote:.

SKF_85 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

theonlyclutch wrote:.

thizznation wrote:.
Lost92Bricks
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#55 » by Lost92Bricks » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:18 pm

I'm not apart of this, but I can still post my opinions, right?

I consider '91 Jordan to be the GOAT season, it's just the most perfect season from start to finish in NBA history.

That being said, is that really the best version of him? If you look at Jordan from the season before he literally did it all. He scored better than ever while also passing, defending and rebounding at a high level. I don't think his skill level and athleticism ever coincided better than they did in 1990, he was as explosive as ever but still added an outside jumper (~38% on 3 attempts).

His playoff run was beyond ridiculous. Averaged ~40/7/7/3 on 61 TS% in the 1st 2 rounds and then averaged ~32/7/6/2 on 57 TS% against maybe the toughest, most physical defense of all time in the Pistons. Almost beat them with a clearly inferior team.

It's kinda like '93 vs. '94 Hakeem or '09 vs. '13 Lebron. Yeah, the latter years were their best seasons but were they actually better or was it just the circumstances around them that were better?

Anyway, I really don't think any player peaked higher than Jordan in these 2 seasons, he almost had 0 weaknesses. Can't say the same for Shaq, Lebron, Magic, Wilt, Hakeem or whoever else.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#56 » by JordansBulls » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:27 pm

Lost92Bricks wrote:I'm not apart of this, but I can still post my opinions, right?



Read the post above yours for how to participate. viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1404723#start_here
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#57 » by PCProductions » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:29 pm

RW2014 wrote:
PCProductions wrote:My main question about 1991 Jordan is mainly around how great the playoff competition was. You had a Pistons team whose wheels seemed to fall of and a clearly past their prime Lakers team in the Finals. I think this is important if we're placing a lot of importance on playoff runs.

This is why I would say 1990 Jordan was better than '91. He took the team to similar heights (Playoffs) with a significantly worse supporting cast, while having marginally better or worse production, against much tougher teams in the PS compared to 1991.

The general feeling on '90 Jordan was that it was his first year of not being distracted by the aesthetics of his game and not being obsessed with padding his boxscore numbers like the year before.

He was bringing whatever his team needed from him to win.

I feel like 90, 91 and 92 Jordan are all around the same level, and 91 is considered the favorite because of the MVP and first title (like 2012 Lebron). But 1990 and 1992 were just as strong in many ways.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#58 » by GoldenFrieza21 » Sun Sep 6, 2015 10:55 pm

Wilt's 1967 Playoff run:

1st round: Royals 98.6 DRtg
2nd round: Celtics 91.0 DRtg
3rd round: Warriors 93.1 DRtg

League average: 96.1

So the defenses he faced were +2.5, -5.1 and -3. Just putting this out there since people are comparing the defenses LeBron, Shaq and Jordan faced.
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#59 » by thizznation » Sun Sep 6, 2015 11:04 pm

Quotatious wrote:Guys, I have a question - how do you feel about '00 Shaq vs '67 (or '64, but '67 seems to be the more popular choice) Wilt? I currently have Wilt ahead by a tiny margin, but I'm not sure about that. I can see a good case for Shaq based on his superior scoring ability and a little better playoff performance, but it's awfully close.

They will be my picks for #3 and 4 if MJ and LBJ get the first two spots, but I'll have to decide between Chamberlain and O'Neal.


Even though this seems to happen a lot, as I was getting ready to post what was quoted above as I was reading through the thread, Quotatious beat me to it though. :D

For my third ballot I wasn't sure to put Shaq '00 or Wilt '67 and I was surprised to see how Shaq was dominating the first set of ballots because I think it's mighty close between the two of them.

Just roughly adjusting down the numbers I would say Wilt '67 would average something like

18 to 20 ppg / 15 to 17 rebounds / 6 assists / 3.5 blocks / ? steal / .630 TS

Shaq '00 came in at 30 ppg / 13.5 rebounds / 4 assists / 3 blocks / .5 steal / .580 TS



So with Wilt you get less dominant scoring, but better rebounding, playmaking, and defense. I want to say that Shaq is better at scoring than Wilt is better at Shaq in defense and playmaking and rebounding, but the fact that I think Wilt is doing all these other things slightly better does even that out.

I think it's neck and neck but as of now I'm going to go with '67 Wilt. This is not set in stone however and I would love to see some arguments that will change my mind.

As for my nominees, nominated by order.

'91 Jordan
'09 LeBron
'67 Chamberlain
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Re: Peaks Project: #1 

Post#60 » by Mutnt » Sun Sep 6, 2015 11:50 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Here's my thing: when you're as unstoppable as Shaq, why does that matter? First, is Shaq truly that dominant? Yes, IMO. Take those at rim numbers, and consider that a lot of Shaq's attempts there were actually off of post ups. If Shaq got a deal seal anywhere without 6 feet or so, that's almost literally a 100% efficacy play. Shaq out of isolation was as dominant as lots of players are in transition, and certainly far more effective than any other isolation scorer has ever been. If we're talking return on investment, there is nothing better than peak Shaq. 


I don't get this ''unstoppable'' label. Yes, Shaq was the best player in NBA history in terms of putting the ball in the basket around the rim, and because of that, the general mystique has been established that being the GOAT at interior scoring makes him an unstoppable offensive player, which is false (at least when weighing it against other all-time great offensive players).

Also, ''Shaq was far more effective than any other isolation scorer has ever been'' - source/proof? And does being an effective isolation player also take into consideration things other than scoring in this case? Because I have a feeling that playmaking, moving the ball, moving the defense and being a threat to score form anywhere on the court (not just from post ups) should factor in, right?

So generally I don't think people disagree with the premise above, right? So if you accept that, how much of a leap is it to say...

A player who is that damn dangerous just needs to be defended differently. Keeping him away from the rim becomes the defenses only lifeline. The difference here is that you can't freaking stop Shaq from getting there. You have to hit him, send doubles, drop your guards, and generally compromise your entire strategy. Because when Shaq gets a deep seal, it's over completely. Like, there is no more sure thing in NBA history. 


Agreed on the fact that Shaq demanded a whole lot of attention just by going near the basket and that puts a lot of pressure on the defense to react. This was all fine until you started using hyperbole again. At the end of the day, Shaq peaked as a 30 ppg (58%TS) guy. As much as you want to remember him being unstoppable, there were ways to limit his effectiveness, if said ways didn't exist the dude would just average 40 (65%TS) or something ridiculous like that en route to more than 3 championships (as the man), because he certainly had the talented casts to pull it off.

''You have to hit him, send double, drop guards etc.'' Uhmm, yeah? Well I guess MJ & LBJ never recieved doubles/triples, multiple coverages, blocking the path to the paint, in the case of LeBron zone defenses, Bigs dropping off their useless Joel Anthony-type player and waiting in the paint

So yeah, defenses have to be keyed in to his every move. And unlike LeBron or Jordan, who like to dribble around the top of the key, Shaq is doing this just by being present. A perimeter creator like Kobe can do his thing unimpeded while the defense is already so compromised by he insane gravity Shaq creates. 


To act like defenses weren't as keyed on every move by MJ & LBJ is disingenuous. They were, it's just that MJ/LBJ had way more moves to beat the defense and were thus much harder to stop because their whole source of effectiveness didn't stem from being a one-trick pony like Shaq which made gameplanning easier, since everyone and their grandma knew what Shaq was gonna do every game.

Seriously, no player has drawn more doubles, caused more fouls (and,like, fouled out entire front lines, an underrated effect). He was an excellent passer too. 


And does this come as a surprise to you? Doubles were actually effective against Shaq because of how he played. He didn't have the handles, speed and explosion of perimeter players (especially in his Laker days) and he operated with his back, regularly in areas where you could use the baseline out of bounds as a means to control his pathing.

The reason why MJ & LBJ (or any other dominant perimeter players) don't draw as many doubles is because doubling these players would be absolutely suicidal. In any case you don't wanna double on the perimeter because it either leaves the corners free or your interior exposed, but when it comes to guys like MJ & LBJ. Doubles ain't doing sht against them. They'll beat the double team every single time.

But it mainly comes down to this: there is always something in the back of your mind with Shaq. You can't let up for a freaking second because it's more costly to let him free than any other player ever. The guy exerts so much influence off ball that the traditional downsides of a post player just don't apply. 


They still apply, Shaq just is able to make it work because he's so good. That's why he blows any other scoring Big in the history of the game out of the water. But against guys like MJ & LBJ. That possibly might not be good enough.

Also: LBJ and Jordan were great perimeter defenders. And when they turned it up trapping and stealing, they were unstoppable. But in terms of per-possession Impact over the long run, can you really argue either of them over peak Shaq defensively?


I think you could. I'm not sure about MJ, but we've seen guys like Dray, Kawhi have massive defensive impacts recently. LeBron is that mold of a player although he usually can't give out as much effort on that end due to his offensive role. He does usually crank it up in the postseason which is ultimately the only thing that matters to him since he usually isn't in danger of qualifying to the PS as a low seed. I've seen LeBron be apart of some hugely flawed defensive teams in his career and being able to play elite defense with them when it mattered most. I mean, who was the best defensive player he played with in his first stint with the Cavs? Corpse of Ben Wallace? Varejao? Anthony Parker? Then undersized Miami teams with Bosh at C and old Battier and injured Wade.

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