Peaks project: #3

[Orin]

I’m not voting but I follow the discussions closely. Great project, great discussions, keep up the good work .

I have a question for you all, but especially you Spaceman.

Let’s look at two players :

Player A helps his team go from a 3 pts team (below average) to a 8.5 pts team (very good), and a 7 pts team (so pretty good) to a 9 pts team (elite).
Player B helps his team go from 3 pts team to a 6.5 pts team, but a 7 pts team (so pretty good) to a 10 pts team (GOAT level team).

Which one is better?

I’m asking you because I think your take on this is that Player B is a better player, as it is more difficult to take a good team to an elite level than a trash team to a good level. That's what make Draymond Green or Kyle Korver better players than a DeRozan for example.

If you guys think B is indeed a better player (I think so personnaly), then why the load that Lebron and Robinson had to carry matters in this peak project? Why does it matters that they can take trash team to very good levels ? Shouldn’t we rather focus on the ceiling a team can attain with a player at it’s helm?

I’m not saying Robinson or Lebron don’t deserve a top 5 spot, I’m just trying to understand.

[drza]

Ballot #2 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77
(snip)
It's not the case with Kareem and Wilt. I mean - I don't feel nearly as comfortable evaluating them (especially Wilt), but based on the knowledge that I do have, the are my #2 and 3 candidates here.

1977 Kareem is pretty similar to 2009 LeBron, in the sense that both guys led mediocre teams to a great record, and got eliminated in the playoffs despite a GOAT level individual performance. LeBron was just better based on boxscore, and it also seems likely that his non-boxscore impact was higher. Even in the playoffs - LeBron at least led the Cavs to two wins against the Magic, while Kareem's team got swept in the WCF against the Blazers. It's certainly not his fault, but all those games (except for game 1, which Portland won by 12) were very close, decided by less than 5 points, so KAJ could've done a bit better job closing out those games.

It's interesting to see that you have 1977 for Kareem's peak, because 1977 and 1978 Kareem vs Walton was such a hot debate. In the Retro Player of the Year project, in particular, 1977 was considered razor close. I'd encourage anyone to go through that whole thread, but for one quote of interest to me:

77-78: Walton's impact versus Kareem's impact.

Sort of a crude on/off type of measure, but when players miss large chunks of time like Walton and Kareem (in 78) it gives us a fairly interesting interesting picture of their value. Obviously there are potential confounds like other injuries, strategy changes, schedule, etc. This is raw data so pace isn't adjusted for either. Nonetheless, thought this data was pretty darn interesting from this period:

Portland 1977:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   43-21    113.4    105.1       +8.3
W/O Walton    6-12     105.7    110.0       -4.3       0.26      61%
Total Difference                            +12.6


Los Angeles 78:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Kareem   37-24    111.9    107.8       +4.1
W/O Kareem    8-13     105.6    107.2       -1.6       0.03      48%
Total Difference                            +5.7


Walton's game on 12/30 and Kareem's season opener counted as "missed" games because they both played only a few minutes. Of course, there's more Walton data, as he went on to miss a comparable chunk of time in 1978 as well.

Portland 1978:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   48-10    110.4    100.4       +10.0
W/O Walton    10-14     101.0    104.3       -3.3      -0.07     58%
Total Difference                            +13.3


Now, one major difference between 77 and 78 in Portland was Lloyd Neal's play off the bench. Praised by commentators and writers, he actually led the 78 team in pts/36, posted a nice .179 WS/48 line, and had 31 points filling in for Walton in the first game he missed (a 111-106 win at Detroit). And still the profound difference is still there without Walton.

If we combine the two seasons and pro-rate the records to 82-games:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS   %Road Games
With Walton   61-21    112.0    102.9       +9.1
W/O Walton    31-51    103.0    106.7       -3.7       0.07     60%
Total Difference                            +12.6
         
With Kareem   52-30    111.9    107.8       +4.1
W/O Kareem    31-51    105.6    107.2       -1.6       0.03     48%
Total Difference                            +5.7



How much do you factor "impact" into your rankings? Kareem clearly had the better traditional/box score stats over Walton, but it's hard (for me at least) to see this and not conclude that 77-78 Walton (when healthy) was making a bigger impact on his teams than 77-78 Kareem (granted, Kareem's injury season was 1978 and not 1977, but the argument was made in the RPoY threads that there was very little difference between either player or either team from 77 to 78, and I buy that enough to make this a worthwhile comp IMO).

I'm really interested in yours and other takes on this, because prior to the RPoY I had Kareem as a potential GOAT candidate but since that project I can't shake the nagging thought that despite his ridiculous box score numbers Kareem may not have been having quite the GOAT-type impact that I might have expected. Any thoughts?

[drza]

After Shaq and LeBron are off the board, my vote is going to David Robinson, barring some really spectacular arguments for another candidate. First, I want people to watch a few highlights, both because I feel most people haven’t really been passively exposed to Robinson as they are with other megastars, and because I think we spend a lot of time discussing why someone doesn’t deserve a spot, and it’s healthy to look at things the other way too; these are all fantastic basketball players, and honestly I find an argument that weighs a player’s strengths in the context of other stars more persuasive than one that discusses his weaknesses.

So without further ado, I give you David Robinson’s quadruple double vs. the Pistons:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkpT0QdUDIY[/youtube]

Impact

Spoiler:

Okay, now to the meat of my argument: impact. Because Robinson may have had more of it than anyone, ever. We can start with the big picture and then sand down to the miniscale and microscale. First, Robinson’s arrivals and departures always coincided with massive swings in team performance. Not surprising for a star necessarily, but the magnitude and consistency of these shifts is certainly worth discussing. First, David arrives in 1989-90: the 21-61, -7.45 SRS Spurs suddenly make a quantum leap to 56-26, with a 3.58 SRS. That’s an SRS jump of over 10!!! Their defense jumps from +0.1 (13th) to -3.9 (3rd) and their offense from -6.9 to -0.1. Certainly other additions like Cummings and Ellis helped a lot, but how many other rookies have ever done anything like this?

So the next big swing comes in 1996-97 with Robinson’s big injury tha kept him out the whole season. The previous season’s 59-23, 5.98 SRS Spurs drop to 20-62 and a -7.93 SRS (!!!). That is a -12 shift in SRS. That is so ridiculous I don’t even know where to begin. The only larger drop I’ve seen came with LeBron leaving the Cavs in 2011, so take that for what it’s worth.

We have a variety of on/off data for 1995. Unfortunately, we don’t have RAPM, but we have enough to paint a reasonable picture. Robinson was the leader in net on/off in both 1994 and 1995, and in 1995 his lead over #2 Vlade Divac was to the tune of +19.8 to +13.8. His net on/off is among the highest ever recorded, up there with 04 KG and 09 LBJ.

FWIW, the estimated RAPM we do have (via J.E.) says that not only was Robinson the single most impactful player every single year he was healthy, but that the margins are so huge that no amount of error could correct them. He was leading this stat by +2 to +4 every single year. No player we’ve seen has ever had that type of lead in RAPM since.

And we’re littered with other examples as well. D-Rob’s postseason on/off in 2000 (with Duncan injured) is the single highest mark EVER RECORDED. David led the 1999 champion spurs in total RAPM. His defensive impact stats were better than Duncan every year they played together. The dude could impact the game on a level we’ve never seen.

As a sort of capstone to this point, I see a lot of people push LeBron 2009 for the sheer amount of lift he provided that terrible Cleveland roster. if that’s the case, you really should be pulling for Robinson here, as the numbers above are suggesting he did the same, if not better.

How did he make that impact?

Spoiler:

Well the argument for Robinson is always going to revolve around defense. I’ll say up front, I think peak Robinson was the best defensive player the league has ever seen, and I think there’s a gap. Where a typical defender will excel in a couple of key areas (post D, PNR, perimeter D, rim protection) Robinson excels in ALL OF THEM. Not only was he the most effective we’ve ever seen in a lot of these aspects, he was versatile enough to do them all at the same time.

For one thing, there’s never been a player. as tall as Robinson who could move the way he does. His coordination and fluidity are simply unmatched by players that size (and frankly players of any size). His positioning and footwork were elite, and in combination with his aforementioned fluidity he was the best pick and roll defender pre-21st century. Interestingly, he actually worked with Thibodeau from 91-95, and you can see the beginnings of Thibs’ ICE scheme, and Robinson was sort of a prototype for the mobile “hedge and recover” bigs we see today.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDWQlisvJmc[/youtube]

Look how he jumps the ball hander and then recovers to the paint to force a contested mid range jumper. That is vintage Thibs, defending the pick and roll with only two guys and giving up the mid range shot. The echoes of this work reverberated through Garnett and later Noah throughout the years. That video is a spitting image of what those two would go on to do to dominate modern NBA defense.

Of course Robinson excelled as a classic rim protector as well, with his length and absurd sense of timing. His movement and timing throughout the lane was alarming, and he covered more ground in the pain than any player I’ve seen, and with his quick reactions and exquisite timing his recovery is second to none:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8KMh_1RmMg[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqYwdua01_I[/youtube]

The dude just had a body that enabled him to do things no one else could defensively. he seriously moved like a guard, and his straight line speed from anywhere on the floor to the rim is a thing of beauty:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSPEqphXbvA[/youtube]

It’s not just the mobility, though. It’s the motor and relentlessness. Robinson had a drive to get his hands into everything that happened on the defensive end of the floor unlike anything I’ve ever seen. He was never one to take plays off; chasedown blocks were a regular thing with him, and hell I’ve even seen him come away with a chasedown steal:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y1wnxgkT4s[/youtube]

Are you joking?? Robinson is one of those dudes who would exploit every possible margin where his team could get an edge. Just like Chris Paul will walk up the floor without touching the ball to preserve shotclock, or Steve Nash will sprint up the sideline as soon as he takes the outlet, Robinson was constantly trying to get a headstart on defending effectively. He goes above and beyond, and he trusted his impeccable awareness, even if it meant abandoning the scheme and going rogue:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV4_j7tNmp4[/youtube]

Robinson was a briliant shotblocker, leading the league twice and averaging over 3 per game for his entire prime, but as he got older what became most impressive about his rim protection was his timing and positioning. He, more than anyone I’ve seen, had a sense of where to place himself just to get in the way of the driving player. Robinson was incredibly foul-averse, substantially better than Olajuwon and right on par with prime Duncan- despite the latter being far less active and racking up far fewer blocks and steals. I credit this to Robinson’s intelligence and the aformentioned positioning; he was rarely beat to his spots aqnd often didn’t have to move because he was already in the way and could simply hold up his long arms to interfere around the rim.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky0erETxUIM[/youtube]

He didn’t need “verticality” because his arms were so damn long, and if you watch the video at the beginning of this post pay attention to the times where Isaiah or someone would drive, and rather than having to move to help Robinson is simply standing there waiting for the driving player. It’s remarkable stuff.

Robinson’s overall efficacy as a defender is unparalleled in NBA history IMO. Yes, I believe at his peak he was the defensive GOAT. Impact numbers, raw stats, and the observations I’ve laid out above all support this. He was truly a freak combination of an elite rim protector, elite perimeter defender, and a mind on par with the greatest we’ve seen. Robinson even at the end of his career was showing up as the best defensive player in the league by RAPM, and even just looking at statistical averages we can see he was obviously doing more at his peak. I’ve hand-tracked a couple of playoff games, including one from the 1995 playoffs against the Lakers. Robinson held the entire opposing team to 8/28 (29.5%) shooting in the paint, including 4/14 (28%) at the rim. In a playoff game in which he played 52:00. Do I have to explain how insane that is?

TL;DR: Robinson=defensive GOAT

Robinson’s offense

Spoiler:

Robinson’s offense is going to be the big sticking point for people. In general there’s the feeling that his numbers overstated his goodness and that his playoff outings show he’s a flawed player. I’m going to do my best to tackle both points and give a general idea about how I feel Robinson stacks up offensively.

So first, his raw averages are mind boggling. Most of his prime he’s a 30/10/3 guy with rare peaks of like 12 rebounds and 5 assists. He was a remarkably consistent producer in the regular season, and his efficiency was sublime, topping 60% TS% in the season we’re discussing. Advanced stats LOVE the guy, he thrice led the league in PER, twice led in OWS, and even led the league in OBPM one season. If you believe in the box score’s ability to represent offensive efficacy, there’s basically no doubting Robinson was GOAT among big men.

What was Robinson great at? First, he was probably the best off-the-dribble attacker as a big man outside of Dirk. He played the face-up game a lot, and overwhelmed opponents with his first step and athleticism. He drew obscene amounts of fouls this way, with free throw rates closing in on .600 most of his prime. He drew oodles and oodles of fouls on opposing big men who just couldn’t keep up with him. He was a great offensive rebounder and excellent finisher ingeneral; quick leaps and soft touch around the rim. There’s no doubt in my mind he could’ve been a volume PNR finisher like Amar’e or DeAndre in today’s game. He was a really explosive finisher:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgocn2YMKyk[/youtube]

Robinson had a solid midrange jumper, although it was prone to drop with fatigue. He was a little like LeBron stylistically in that he liked to straight line drive to the rim and kick the ball outside or finish himself. He was an underrated passer, topping out as a 5 APG player in 1994. There’s really no denying the results; the Spurs were a top offense every year with him at the helm and focal point.

One thing I want to mention: Robinson’s USG was crazy. Obscene. he was carrying Jordan-level volume for that Spurs team, and as a big man that’s frankly insane.

What about his playoff performance?

Yes, it is an issue, although how big I’m not sure. When we talk about Robinson in the playoffs really his big flaw was that he didn’t have a back-to-basket game, and thus had really no way to create reliable offense. Teams that sent aggressive help could stifle his dribble attacks, and he didn’t have many counters.

That’s not to say he wasn’t effective in the playoffs; on the contrary, he put up 25/12/3 in his 1995 playoff run. His efficiency wasn’t great, but for a guy who gets murdered for his performance this year there’s really nothing supporting that. Even in the series against Hakeem he put up 24/12/3… where exactly is this reputation coming from?

Look, I’ve brought this up a little bit before, but look at the dude’s usage level on offense. And think about the role he played on defense. And now think about the fact he averaged 42 MPG in the playoffs after averaging 38 in the regular season, and consider that his peers Hakeem and Shaq were notorious for taking regular seasons off. Is his playoff run starting to make a bit more sense now?

And let’s not sugar coat this: Robinson’s cast was BAD. His best teammte in 1995 was Sean Elliot. Ive pulled up a comparison to give you an idea of who exactly Elliot was as a player:

http://bkref.com/tiny/sLYXM

Again, this is Robinson’s best teammate. What about Rodman, you say? Dennis Rodman played 49 games total this season, and started ony 26. During the offseason,he was arrested twice: once for carrying a loaded shotgun with an “introverted note” (he denies it was a suicide attempt) and again after he drove a motorcycle while intoxicated and sustained serious injuries.

Hell, Rodman can tell his story of the 1995 season far better than I can:

It started to fall apart in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Lakers. In Game 3 of the series, which we lost, I came out of the game in the second half and took my shoes off on the sideline. This was no different than most other games. I didn't see a place for me to sit, so I lay down to the press table that ran behind the baseline. So there I was, shoes off, towel over my head, kicking back watching the game.
Then, during a time-out, I didn't get up. I didn't join the huddle. I sat where I was, watching.
I didn't play any more in that game. Nothing was said to me; I guess it was just supposed to be understood that I wasn't going back in. After we lost that game, we still led in the series, two games to one, and the Spurs decided to suspend me for Game 4. They said the suspension was for "insubordination". Then, after we won that game, they decided I wasn't going to start Game 5.

Players started deciding I wasn't worth the trouble, that the team would be better off without me.

The Rockets went seven games to beat the PHoenix Suns, and the last game of that series was May 20, two days after we finished off the Lakers. I wanted to go to Las Vegas during that time off, so I did. I went with my friend Dwight Manley and Mike Silver, an reporter from Sports Illustrated. This, of course, drove everyone crazy. They didn't know where I was, and they were worried that I'd just bailed on the team.
Jack Haley called me in Las Vegas and told me everyone was panicking. He told me I had to get back to San Antonio that Saturday Night, May 20, to attend a team dinner with everybody and their wives. Then Bob Hill called and told me I better be there - or else.

They asked me to guard Olajuwon, and I refused. Bob Hill came up to me and asked if I would take Hakeem in the first half, and I said no

.

David asked me for help, and I told him right to his **** face, "I am not going down there." I was not going to help him.
They asked me to double-team Olajuwon, and I refused.

so they'd throw it out to the shooter - Horry - and he killed us on three-pointers. We made Horry a star in that series.

Guess who was guarding Robert freaking Horry?

look, I’m not going to say Robinson doesn’t deserve some criticism for that series. But that’s become the series that defined his entire career, and that’s entirely unfair, considering he didn’t play badly, and he was simply one of many, many problems for that team, which frankly far overachieved for its talent level. Olajuwon was brilliant, of course, but not so much so that it should be the end-all be-all.

Let’s take a step back for a second and evaluate Robinson’s role again: he was carrying a devastatingly heavy role. he was rocking Michael Jordan levels of offensive usage in addition to performing his duties as one of the greatest defensive anchors we’ve ever seen. The Spurs had no perimeter players save Elliot who could create a shot from the perimeter, and Elliot wasn’t even good. Rodman was a soul-destroying monster who openly sabotaged the coach and team. And Robinson found himself right in the middle.
I don’t think you’ll find another example of a player carrying that kind of load, and I don’t think it’s close. So when we talk about Robinson’s offense and his playoff struggles, we should be boiling this down to one key point: he simply wasn’t good enough to drag a team to a title playing the role of Michael Jordan on offense and Bill Russell on defense.
How do you feel about criticising him now?
One thing I want to note: I absolutely do think Robinson coul’ve been the number 1 option on a champion. I think with the increased focus on pick and roll and finishing today that Robinson would be incredible, and I think all he needed was a perimeter creator on the level of, say, Monta Ellis to maximize his playoff offensive output.

Comparing with the competition

Spoiler:

If we accept the argument above, we have to accept that Robinson has a very strong case against many of the names being brought up at this point. I already noted that Robinson’s impact stats are right on par with LeBron, who is the king of that stuff in his Cleveland years.

Let’s talk about Wilt. If we’re talking about 1967, we’re talking the defense/passing-oriented version of Wilt. Now ostensibly lots of Wilt’s impact came on the defensive end, but how much really? As good as Wilt may have been (and we don’t have enough footage to verify) I really really doubt Wilt was hitting those kind of notes defensively. Like, really doubt. Wilt wasn’t comparable to his peer Russell, and frankly I don’t think Russell peaked as high as Robinson on D. Wilt was strong, and a great post defender and shot blocker, but his lesser mobility and my burning questions about his BBIQ lead me to doubt he was really approaching Robinson there.

So offense? Well let’s not forget the theme of Wilt’s career: his team offenses improved as he took less of a scoring role. That’s a terrible sign. Wilt gets a lot of press for his passing this season, but Robinson was a terrific passer in his own right, and Robinson was arguably the most dominant statistical big outside of 62 Wilt anyway. Wilt was an even more limited scorer than Robinson was in the playoffs; Wilt’s only job was to finish around the basket Wilt was 8th on his team in shot attempts/36. Can we really even compare their offensive roles? How can Wilt be more effective offensively if he doesn’t have anywhere clsoe to the level of influence of Robinson? IMO Robinson was better on both sides of the ball, and if you’re voting for the archetype of Wilt 67 in this slot, David should be an easy choice over him considering the similarities.

Kareem? How good was his offense really? He was a dominant scorer to be sure, but his passing wasn’t great and he wasn’t the terrifying force at the rim that the best offensive Centers are. he was certainly elite, even in a historic sense, but there’s a reason the offense improved so dramatically upon Magic’s arrival. Kareem in his peak season looks weaker than peer Bill Walton in may areas, and pretty comparable to someone like Dr. J, and I have both guys below Robinson. kareem’s peak is an interesting one, because I have a sneaking suspicion his impact was not matching up with those bo score numbers. And as good as Kareem was on defense, I don’t really think it’s a comparison between the two.

Duncan? It’s debateable, but David is far more statistically impressive, has an unquestionably higher motor, and seemed by all accounts to be the more effecitve defender and more versatile player.

Hakeem is another interesting one, and I’m not sure how to contextualize his offense. I don’t think his defense was on the level of David, and as I’ve explained David was a ridiculous offensive player in his own right. hakeem’s offensive impact looks terrible in his later years, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it wasn’t all THAT in his peak years.

This was an interesting post, and it seems to be resonating with others in the thread. Question: how do you differentiate '95 Kareem from '04 KG? By most of the approaches you use in this post, it seems to be a pretty even comp that, if anything, shades towards Garnett. I'll hopefully get to spend more time on such a comp in future threads, but I'm curious as to your take.

[Owly]

I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

Suns weren't good on D, but "Hot Rod", when he was right, was a good defensive center. Here's what was said about how Williams played Robinson in those playoffs

[quote="Rick Barry’s Pro Basketball Bible 1996-97”]Did what was described as a “textbook job” on David Robinson (even though Robinson managed to score 30 a game) in the Suns first round playoff loss to San Antonio[/quote]
It also quotes a source calling him their “defensive inspiration” and rates him as a AA grade defender.

Regarding "didn't even" average 20-10. Firstly "even"? That's not an easy thing. He did manage 19.3, 9, with 1.7 steals and 2.5 blocks. Robinson's bar is always so high because so many people always compare with his RS (then ignore RS performance) and it's easy to fall into that trap. Then too, those barriers would surely have been broken if he'd played more than 34.8mpg. Admittedly it was partly his fault for fouling out of game 4 with just 24 minutes on court, but I'm not sure about G7 where he played just 29 minutes.

Finally (and fwiw, I like average performance, all the performances happened, they all matter) the argument that one series is "misleading" in the sense of - "the averages don't convey how poor he was in one series", would be stronger if that one, worse, series were a small sample (like a sweep) which didn't contribute the majority of the minutes (and thus production window) of the players totals.

I'm not saying he's better or worse in either as I'm not massively into playoffs as a be all and end all, "real season" or a great opportunity for comparing players (which is what you were rightly driving at; and the competition context should absolutely be explored), just putting in some evidence on Robinson.

[PCProductions]

Hakeem is another interesting one, and I’m not sure how to contextualize his offense. I don’t think his defense was on the level of David, and as I’ve explained David was a ridiculous offensive player in his own right. hakeem’s offensive impact looks terrible in his later years, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it wasn’t all THAT in his peak years.

1. Do you think Robinson's strength is why he's the better defensive player? If not, what makes you think there is a gap?
2. Do you factor in rebounding into the defensive difference? Do you think Robinson is a better rebounder?
3. How much emphasis do you place on Hakeem vs. Robinson in the playoffs? Not their matchup in 1995, but their noticeable difference in terms of efficiency during their primes.

[Dr Spaceman]

1. Do you think Robinson's strength is why he's the better defensive player? If not, what makes you think there is a gap?

Re: Hakeem, I would point mostly toward Robinson's motor. There were some things I laid out in that post about how Robinson was always active and always looking to give his team an edge. Hakeem was more of a coaster, and had a tendency to fall asleep at the wheel a little bit, especially early in games. I've watched his 1990 series vs. the Lakers extensively, and came away particularly unimpressed with his off-ball defense or when he wasn't directly involved in the play. He was a tremendous weak side shot blocker, but there's just a difference between the way he does that and the way Robinson positions himself to become an obstacle instead of "saving the day". Hakeem was a better post defender than Robinson certainly, and that mattered a lot at the time. Hakeem by the eye test certainly looked very impressive with the way he toyed with Divac (slapping the ball away with one hand, pushing him farther out, etc.) but again if he wasn't guarding a guy posting up or involved in a pick and roll I was really disappointed inches energy level. It's little things too like how he would lose his man in transition or be waaaaay out of position going for an offensive board; little mistakes Robinson never made, especially not in playoff games. There's just a little more "sloppiness" in Hakeem's game.

I know how people like to rave about Hakeem's athleticism, and certainly he's one of the better athletes we've seen at the position. But in addition to the run/jump stuff there's coordination and fluidity and footwork, and defensively I didn't think Hakeem was quite up to snuff. For one thing, his pick and roll D against the Jazz in 94 struck me as quite bad:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyA2q5na-o0[/youtube]

I mean that's one play, but it's freaking egregious. This is a WCF game, and I don't know exactly what he's doing here if he fell asleep or what but that execution is mind-bogglingly poor. Granted it's one play but on the whole I certainly wasn't inspired by his performance against the Jazz.

Robinson also had the rare ability to switch onto perimeter players and hang with them for the length of a half-court possession. This is not just something to differentiate from Hakeem, but basically every great big man save KG. If I'm betting my life on any big stopping a perimeter isolation, it's Robinson I'm taking.

Finally Robinson's fast-twitch athleticism and length just gave him more defensive range than Hakeem. I've posted videos of his insane recovery and that illustrates it a bit, but charting their activity throughout the game Hakeem was fairly paint-bound while Robinson tended to be able to go anywhere inside the arc to help, and could get there in a split second.

I attribute Robinson with the higher defensive IQ, but this is a pretty tenuous notion and it's hard to craft a good argument either way that isn't already covered by skill sets.

2. Do you factor in rebounding into the defensive difference? Do you think Robinson is a better rebounder?

I don't think there's an appreciable difference in either direction, although Hakeem's larger frame and thicker lower body may give him an edge. Hakeem had a box score edge most years, but Robinson played with Rodman during his prime and Hakeem was playing with stretch fours.

3. How much emphasis do you place on Hakeem vs. Robinson in the playoffs? Not their matchup in 1995, but their noticeable difference in terms of efficiency during their primes.

Hakeem was a better scorer, there's no doubt about it. Their respective postseason performances tell me exactly that, and it's factored into my overall assessment of their goodness. We need to be clear: Robinson's falloff came ITO his scoring; his defense was superlative and he made a lot of other contributions offensively. So while Hakeem was the better scorer, IMO it's fair to call Robsinson superior in most other aspects. If the playoff scoring difference is enough to outweigh the rest, as it apparently is for some posters, then Hakeem is the choice. But I don't think it is.

I think it's important to think of it in the terms I've laid out above, as that avoids the trap of saying "Robinson fell apart in the playoffs". No, he simply was not a GOAT level scorer who could masquerade as one during the RS. There's only a massive falloff insofar as you believe Robinson was a GOAT candidate among big men scorers. I don't rate Robinson's scoring goodness that favorably, and yet as an overall player I'm comfortable taking him over Hakeem. Take that for what it's worth.

EDIT: I should clarify, when talking about Robinson's PS performances it's important to point out the things he WAS doing: namely foul drawing, rebounding, and passing. He was a really really good passer, and that didn't go away in the postseason. He also still had the tendency to rack up FTA, and his offensive rebounding is still elite.

[Dr Spaceman]

This was an interesting post, and it seems to be resonating with others in the thread. Question: how do you differentiate '95 Kareem from '04 KG? By most of the approaches you use in this post, it seems to be a pretty even comp that, if anything, shades towards Garnett. I'll hopefully get to spend more time on such a comp in future threads, but I'm curious as to your take.

Excellent question, and really we're going to be splitting hairs either way we go here. Frankly the deciding factor for me between Bron and David is resiliency. I'm not sure if you've read our 15 POY thread, but I coined theater to mean precisely: if a team tries to stop you from doing what you do, how successful can they be? IMO it's a good solid add-on to help people translate observable impact to their conception of goodness, which is more abstract. So in this context a lot of LeBron's impact came from his ability to create offense at God-level, and there's no reason to think anyone could stop him from doing that.

Robinson was certainly farther down the spectrum with his scoring. I don't think there's any doubt that there were effective strategies to use agaist him defensively. In comparison to someone like Malone though, scoring is only part of the picture with Robinson, and certainly his primary method of impact was defense, and that remained elite at all times. I don't think scoring dropoffs are as huge a deal as people make them with Robinson, simply because he did so much other stuff that other volume scorers didn't come close to.

Re: KG, I have him and Robinson and Bron all pretty much dead even. I'll probably vote for Garnett the spot after Robinson gets in. Unlike LeBron though, there's not a clear avenue for me to say one of Garnett or Robinson is better than their counterpart. There are certain things I like more about Robinson's game, namely rim protection which IMO he does at a much higher level than Garnett. KG probably has the edge ITO perimeter D and mobility, and maybe pick and roll D but I don't think we have enough D-Rob footage to has out this aspect too far.

I also rate David's defensive portability relatively higher, and there's a reason I went so granular in breaking down his defense: he really can do everything at an elite level. Put him next to Rodman, an elite rebounder and perimeter defender, and Robinson becomes a rim protector and paint patroller. Put him next to Duncan, an elite post defender and rim protector, and he becomes a roaming help man not unlike KG. I think KG is extremely versatile too, but I think there's a higher chance of redundancy between he and other guys who excel at his specific skills, and they're proliferating recently. For example, I think KG would make a fearsome defensive pair with Andrew Bogut, but with Draymond Green i think you'd see some diminishing returns. On the other hand, I think Robinson would be a dream fit with either guy, and could co-exist with both pairings more seamlessly.

I certainly see a lot of the similarities you allude to, and I plan to vote KG immediately after D-Rob.

[thizznation]

Ballot #1 - LeBron James '09

Ballot #2 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77

Ballot #3 - Wilt Chamberlain '64

LeBron will remain my top pick until he gets voted in. I have a lot of faith in him and feel pretty comfortable evaluating him. Arguably the GOAT statistical regular season AND playoffs, even despite the fact that he didn't win a championship that year.

It's not the case with Kareem and Wilt. I mean - I don't feel nearly as comfortable evaluating them (especially Wilt), but based on the knowledge that I do have, the are my #2 and 3 candidates here.

1977 Kareem is pretty similar to 2009 LeBron, in the sense that both guys led mediocre teams to a great record, and got eliminated in the playoffs despite a GOAT level individual performance. LeBron was just better based on boxscore, and it also seems likely that his non-boxscore impact was higher. Even in the playoffs - LeBron at least led the Cavs to two wins against the Magic, while Kareem's team got swept in the WCF against the Blazers. It's certainly not his fault, but all those games (except for game 1, which Portland won by 12) were very close, decided by less than 5 points, so KAJ could've done a bit better job closing out those games.

I'm going with '64 Wilt instead of '67, because that year is really more representative of what Chamberlain really was as a player. Terrific defensive season, too. I think that's the best he ever was as a two-way player, and already had more balance as an offensive player in '64, compared to '62 or '63. His team was still below average offensively, but I don't think you can always blame a superstar for that. Just like Dwyane Wade led below average offenses at his peak in '09 and '10, but every other measure indicates that he was an absolutely elite offensive force.

Also, Chamberlain didn't decline in the playoffs in '64. Even when faced Russell in the playoffs, he still averaged 29.2 on above average (at that time) 51% TS (Russell was obviously going to affect Wilt's offensive numbers, he's the best defender of all-time by a solid margin, but Chamberlain's numbers were still very good). His overall playoff numbers that year are about the same as his regular season numbers.

I think that Wilt's supporting cast in '67 was FAR superior to the team he had in '64. That gap is even bigger than the gap between LeBron's '09 and '13 teams. Even just having a star offensive player like Hal Greer is a big difference. Not to mention Luke Jackson, Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham and Wali Jones.
Offensively, Wilt had even worse teammates than Kareem had in '77. It's not much of a surprise that they were below average offensively as a team.

That being said, contrary to what stats like WS would tell you, I think there's a bigger gap between Wilt and Kareem on offense (in Kareem's favor) than on defense (in Wilt's favor). Trying to measure defense based on DWS is IMO wrong. It's not a great defensive stat. Wilt had two seasons with 10+ DWS, while players like Olajuwon, Robinson, Mutombo, Ben Wallace, Duncan, Garnett, never even had 9.0 DWS in a single season (well, Wallace had, once, in 2004, when he had 9.1), and I'd take all of them over Wilt as defenders.
Abdul-Jabbar was clearly more efficient, both in absolute and relative terms, and their scoring average per 100 possessions was pretty much the same (both averaged about 33 ppg per 100 poss., but Kareem shot 60.8% TS in the regular season, and 64.6% in the playoffs, not to mention that he raised his scoring average from 26.2 to 34.6 in the playoffs - that's a huge improvement considering that his efficiency went up quite a bit, too). Kareem was at +9.7 over league average in the RS (and +13-15% in the playoffs), Wilt was at +5.2. That's a clear difference in KAJ's favor.

I agree with your assessment on how KAJ is more talented offensively than Wilt and that the gap defensively is very close as well with Wilt having the slight edge. The one part I would like to ask you about is rebounding. In hindsight I would probably switch the prime I posted of '80 to '77 like yours, the main difference I overlooked between '80 and '77 KAJ is rebounding. '80 KAJ rebounding fell off a cliff that year but '77 KAJ had an 18.4% TRB in the regular season and 21.6% TRB in the playoffs.

Anyways one of the deal breakers with Wilt and KAJ for me was the difference in rebounding, but when I look at '77 KAJ rebounding it looks pretty darn good.

I know the data for '64 and '67 is incomplete for TRB percentages so we are going to have to speculate. What is the gap between rebounding between the two of them in your opinion?

[Quotatious]

I agree with your assessment on how KAJ is more talented offensively than Wilt and that the gap defensively is very close as well with Wilt having the slight edge. The one part I would like to ask you about is rebounding. In hindsight I would probably switch the prime I posted of '80 to '77 like yours, the main difference I overlooked between '80 and '77 KAJ is rebounding. '80 KAJ rebounding fell off a cliff that year but '77 KAJ had an 18.4% TRB in the regular season and 21.6% TRB in the playoffs.

Anyways one of the deal breakers with Wilt and KAJ for me was the difference in rebounding, but when I look at '77 KAJ rebounding it looks pretty darn good.

I know the data for '64 and '67 is incomplete for TRB percentages so we are going to have to speculate.

Yeah, I was thinking that 1980 makes sense as Kareem's peak because it was a pretty complete season which ended with a championship, and Kareem having amazing playoffs before the injury that prevented him from playing in game 6 of the finals.

However, I also felt like Kareem's athleticism, rebounding and defense weren't really at peak level anymore. Still very good in all of these areas, but not as good as he once was.

His rebounding in '77 was clearly better than it was in '80, as you noted.

What is the gap between rebounding between the two of them in your opinion?

The gap is pretty noticeable. '64 Wilt has 3.6 more rebounds per 100 possessions than '77 Kareem, and 7.2 more than '80 Kareem. The gap between '64 Wilt and '77 KAJ isn't huge, but between '64 Wilt and '80 Kareem? I'd say it is huge.

That being said, I think Kareem's more efficient offense, better shooting touch from the field (and about 20% difference in terms of free throw percentage!), plus the fact that he improved his game in the playoffs (it's true for both '77 and '80 Kareem), are more important in Kareem's favor, than the rebounding edge that '64 (or '67) Wilt has over '77 Kareem.

[Nbafanatic]

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

In '95, he had a mediocre series in the first round, but he faced Mutombo. Robinson's offensive game wasn't really that well-suited as a #1 offensive option in the postseason, to begin with, and then you factor in that he faced the DPOY at his position...Anyway, the Spurs still swept the Nuggets quite easily.

Then, he had a great series against the Lakers in the second round.

His performance in the WCF against Houston is underrated. He wasn't horrible by any means. I'd say better than he was in the '96 Utah series.

I agree with this. The issue about Robinson being the third peak of all time is putting him above Hakeem on this 95 season, when even Hakeem's peak is more suitable to be 93 or 94. The Spurs had some tough breaks on the WCF 95 against the Rockets, they lost game 1 much because of one of Rodman's antics, not listening to a timeout huddle, for instance. The Spurs had more of a motion offense, therefore Robinson worked a lot as a decoy on their offense, when the Rockets were more pragmatic posting up Hakeem a lot, and Robinson faced the dream with single coverage most of the time, as the Rockets always used as their Modus Operandi to bring double teams against the centers, to preserve Hakeem more, using more rotation and scrambling defenses. Anyway, even if we can attenuate a little for Robinson in this series, and it's true, he had a good series, only Olajuwon was fantastic, and there lies the problem... Is very hard to put Robinson above Hakeem this year.

It is. I admit that. But is it hard because we actually believe Hakeem the better player, or because deep down we have trouble accepting that the better player may have lost in a performance in which it was popularly described as "Hakeem dominates Robinson"? Like, how much of it is just that the narrative stuck from when you watched that series as a kid and now 15 years later you're finding it difficult to go against something you've believed for so long?

ThaRegul8r provided me with some articles he collected during the 95 WCF.

I hadn't forgotten, I'd merely had some other things come up.

Game 1

Spoiler:

Rockets grab series opener
Spurs lose home edge 94–93
By BOB BAUM
AP Sports Writer

SAN ANTONIO—Almost always, the Houston Rockets win the last game of a playoff series.

Now they’ve won the first one, too—on the road against a team that had 62 victories this season, five of them against Houston.

The defending NBA champion Rockets, written off after finishing an unremarkable fifth in the West in the regular season, won Round 1 of the battle of Texas with a 94–93 victory over San Antonio on Monday night.

The Rockets took a 1–0 lead over the Spurs in the best-of-seven Western Conference finals and took away the homecourt advantage San Antonio earned throughout the playoffs by compiling the best record in the NBA.

Robert Horry’s wide-open 18-footer with 6.5 seconds to play gave Houston the victory. It was his first basket of the night.

“This is the way we have been winning lately,” the Rockets’ Mario Elie said. “Like Hakeem said, we are a team of destiny.”

After falling behind 2–1 in the first round against Utah and 3–1 in the conference semifinals against Phoenix, then coming back to win, the Rockets had played 11 games in 20 days. But winning has washed away any weariness.

“Our battle cry right now is stay humble and stay hungry,” Houston coach Rudy Tomjanovich said.

The Rockets went more than two minutes without a field goal until Horry, who had missed four straight shots to that point, hit his game-winner.

“We swung it to the open man, just like we have all season,” Horry said. “I was surprised I was so open. At that time, there was no time to doubt yourself. I’ve always had confidence in my ability to hit the big shot.”

He was the latest in a growing list of Houston heroes.

“We have five guys on the floor who can get the job done,” Olajuwon said. “It’s all about team chemistry.”

Sean Elliot, who led the Spurs with 24 points, missed two free throws with 26.6 seconds to go and his shot from the lane with two seconds to go bounced off the rim.

“I don’t have the words to describe that team I have over there,” Tomjanovich said. “They’ve got the biggest hearts in the world. After two very hard-fought series against two very great teams, and now we’re playing the team with the best record in the league, it’s just amazing what this team can do when we hang together.”

The first playoff showdown between Olajuwon and David Robinson was not the epic battle many anticipated. Both were frustrated by fouls, and Robinson had a miserable time through three quarters, making one of 11 shots.

He came back to score 12 in the final quarter, but he missed one of two free throws with 46 seconds to play. Robinson’s 21 points was his lowest total of the playoffs.

Elliot, whose four-point play just before halftime had given San Antonio a 54-53 lead, scored 24 points and carried much of the offensive load for the Spurs. But he, too, faltered down the stretch.

Then there was Dennis Rodman, he of the tequila sunrise-shaded hair. Rodman had an energetic 20 rebounds, but he was one for seven from the field and missed a wide-open rebound shot late in the game.

Avery Johnson was a rare bright spot for the Spurs with 18 points and nine assists.

Olajuwon scored 27 points despite foul trouble. Clyde Drexler made his first seven shots, scored 25 and had 12 rebounds.

Elie was four for five on three-pointers and scored 16. His three-pointer with 2½ minutes to play put Houston ahead 90–88.

San Antonio is supposed to be a much deeper team than Houston, but the Rocket subs outscored the Spurs reserves 28–18. Houston got a strong 23 minutes from backup center Charles Jones.

Now, San Antonio faces the prospect of having to win Wednesday night or going to Houston down 0–2. In this city seeped in Texas history, there’s a historical fact that does not bode well for San Antonio’s hopes for its first trip to the NBA Finals:

The Spurs are 0–13 in playoff series where they’ve lost the first game.

Game 2

Spoiler:

ROCKETS LEAD 2-0
Rockets steal another from Spurs
Associated Press

SAN ANTONIO — David Robinson got the trophy. Hakeem Olajuwon got the game. And Houston is rocketing toward a repeat trip to the NBA Finals.

Olajuwon, the NBA’s most valuable player a year ago, took over Game 2 of the Western Conference finals in the third quarter Wednesday night, then got the help he needed down the stretch as the Rockets completed a Texas two-step over San Antonio 106-96.

Using a dizzying assortment of moves, Olajuwon made 9-of-12 shots in a 19-point third period. He finished with 41 points and 16 rebounds as the Rockets headed back to Houston with a 2-0 lead in the best-of-7 series.

Robert Horry, who hit the game winner in Houston’s 94-93 victory in Game 1, made five 3-pointers, two in a row late in the fourth quarter, as Houston pulled away after the Spurs had rallied from a 13-point third-quarter deficit to take a brief 82-80 lead.

Olajuwon scored 31 in the second half, in what, after a slow start, turned into a classic matchup of the MVPs of the past two seasons.

The defending champion Rockets, written off as a contender after an unimpressive fifth-place finish in the West, won their fifth playoff game in a row, the last three on the road.

Robinson, who received this year’s MVP trophy from commissioner David Stern just before tipoff, started the game 1-for-5 but came back to score 32 and grab 12 rebounds. He scored 14 in the final quarter.

Clyde Drexler scored 23 for Houston, giving him 48 in the two wins over the Spurs. Horry added 21 points.

Doc Rivers added 16 for the Spurs. Sean Elliott scored 12 on 4-for-12 shooting.

San Antonio’s Dennis Rodman, sporting a new hair color that was a combination of goldfish gold and egg yolk yellow, played just three minutes in the second half. After it was over, he sat on the court long after the game ended before walking slowly to the locker room. He finished with four points and eight rebounds, three in the second half.

Now Robinson finds himself the admiral of a sinking ship.

The Spurs, the team with the best record in the NBA at 62-20, lost their third in a row at home for the first time this season. They were 33-8 in the Alamodome in the regular season.

No team has come back from 2-0 to win the Western Conference finals. Only 11 teams have rallied from such a deficit to win any series. The last one to do it was Houston last year against Phoenix in the conference semifinals.

The series moves 200 miles down Interstate 10 for Friday night’s Game 3 at the Summit.

Olajuwon’s third-quarter effort came after he drew his third foul 22 seconds into the period. Coach Rudy Tomjanovich elected not to bring him to the bench, and Olajuwon [scored] the Rockets’ next eight points to put them ahead 57-45.

Game 3

Spoiler:

Robinson Wins One in Battle of Centers

By CLIFTON BROWN
Published: May 28, 1995

HOUSTON, May 27— It could have been pride, or desperation, or simply a great player responding to a challenge.

Whatever it was, David Robinson finally had something to smile about on Friday (29 points, 9 rebounds) after being outdone by Hakeem Olajuwon in two games. The San Antonio Spurs needed it. Robinson needed it. And with their 107-102 victory over the Houston Rockets, the Spurs cut their deficit to 2-1 in the four-of-seven-game Western Conference finals, heading into Game 4 on Sunday afternoon at the Summit.

Until Friday, the series had produced more embarrassment than excitement for Robinson, winner of the National Basketball Association's most valuable player award this year. Before Game 2, Robinson was handed the m.v.p. trophy before adoring fans at the Alamodome. Olajuwon responded by handing the Spurs a 41-point, 16-rebound performance, stealing the spotlight and the game from Robinson.

While both players play down the significance of their individual battle, the Robinson-Olajuwon duel is compelling. It's this year's m.v.p. against last year's m.v.p. Olajuwon trying to defend the Rockets' championship against Robinson, whose team is still trying to win its first league title.

No matter what happens in this series, the two centers will be the center of attention. And Robinson hopes that the longer it goes, the better he will perform.

"I think I'm more settled now," said Robinson, when asked about the task of defending Olajuwon, who has more spin moves than Michael Jackson. "I've gone from a series playing Elden Campbell and Vlade Divac to playing against Hakeem. He's at his best right now. It was a huge adjustment. Mentally, I think I'm into the rhythm now. I feel like I'm getting a feel for him as a player in this series."

But feeling too comfortable against Olajuwon can be dangerous. Not only is he a great player, but the Rockets go to him again and again and again. Olajuwon has attempted 37 more shots than Robinson in the series, which makes statistical comparisons between the two somewhat unfair. Olajuwon has to produce big numbers for Houston to win. But if Olajuwon gets 43 points, as he did in Game 3, and the Spurs win, Robinson calls that a good day.

"The man is going to score," Robinson said of Olajuwon. "He's going to get 35 shots a night. You just have to play him as tough as you can and make the shots tough."

Which is what Robinson did in the second half of Game 3. San Antonio trailed by a point at halftime, and Houston had already made nine 3-point shots. With the Spurs double-teaming Olajuwon, the Rockets were finding wide-open shots on the perimeter.

So at halftime, Bob Hill made a risky move. San Antonio's coach told Robinson that he would be defending Olajuwon one on one in the second half. For Hill, delivering that message was as pleasant as telling Robinson that his tax return would be audited. Is there anyone who wants to play Olajuwon one on one?

"I don't know if there's a word to describe him," Hill said of Olajuwon. "You got one? I don't know how to explain it. He's writing a book on post play. He's unbelievable. He makes jump shots, he spins, he pump fakes, he shoots hooks. He's got it all going on. It's even more impressive that we were able to beat them when he's playing like that. He's absolutely a great player."

But so is Robinson. And by the fourth quarter, Olajuwon looked tired for the first time in the series. He missed an open 10-footer in the final 2 minutes that could have brought the Rockets within 4 points. And with Robinson defending Olajuwon, the Spurs tightened their perimeter defense, holding the Rockets to just four 3-pointers in the second half. Instead of playing behind Olajuwon all the time, Robinson also fronted Olajuwon in the low post and did a better job of denying him the basketball. Robinson plans to use that strategy throughout the series.

"I tried to mix it up a little bit, tried to keep him guessing," Robinson said. "I've got to get into his head a little bit, try to make him think about what he's doing."

So all the Rockets fans who brought brooms to Game 3 can put them away. The Spurs will not be swept away. Robinson will not be brushed aside so easily. What was billed as a matchup between two terrific centers has taken shape. And because neither team has won a game at home in this series, the Spurs have even more confidence heading into Sunday.

"There's no fear," Robinson said of the Spurs' attitude. "We come in here, there's no fear. They come into our place, there's no fear. It's just going to boil down to basketball. My biggest concern was not being down, 2-0, but that we hadn't played basketball yet. You have no time in a series like this to wait."

Game 4

Spoiler:

The Spurs Get Even By Routing Rockets

By CLIFTON BROWN
Published: May 29, 1995

HOUSTON, May 28— The San Antonio Spurs started the weekend in trouble. They ended the weekend in style.

In the most dominant performance of the Western Conference finals, the Spurs manhandled the Houston Rockets, 103-81, today in Game 4 at the Summit. The victory evened the four-of-seven-game series, 2-2, continuing a stunning turnaround since the Rockets took the first two games of the series in San Antonio.

The Spurs are trying to become only the third team in National Basketball Association history to win a series after losing the first two games at home. And by winning Games 3 and 4 in Houston, the Spurs have recaptured both the home-court advantage -- for what that is worth in this series -- and the momentum heading into Game 5 on Tuesday night in San Antonio.

"I think we figured out what got us here," said David Robinson, who finished with 20 points, 16 rebounds and 5 blocks and was one of many Spurs who turned in an outstanding performance. "In these two games, our backs were against the wall. You can't be world champions if you can't dig down deep."

The Spurs were at their best, which meant Dennis Rodman was on his best behavior. Leading an all-out rebounding assault, Rodman finished with 12 points and 19 rebounds, including 12 offensive rebounds. San Antonio annihilated the Rockets on the backboards, outrebounding them, 64-39. At times, it looked as if the Spurs were playing volleyball and the Rockets were watching. Rodman had little to say after the game, but his performance spoke loudly.

"Rodman killed us," said Kenny Smith, Houston's point guard.

The long playoff grind might finally have taken its toll on the Rockets, who have overcome tremendous obstacles just to get this far. The defending N.B.A. champions erased a 2-1 deficit in their first-round series against Utah. And they erased a 3-1 deficit in the second round against Phoenix, becoming the first N.B.A. team in 13 years to win Game 7 on the road. But they have played every other day since May 3, while the Spurs have picked up several days of rest by sweeping Denver in the first round and beating the Lakers in six games in the second round. The Rockets are also playing with only a 10-man roster, having lost Carlos Herrera and Vernon Maxwell before the playoffs.

Can the Rockets win another game in San Antonio and survive this series? This battle of Texas has taken so many odd twists, who knows what to expect? Considering that neither team has won at home, maybe the Spurs should consider relinquishing the home court for Game 5.

"Obviously, the key to this series is being on the road," said Doc Rivers, San Antonio's point guard. "We're going home. It could be tough."

But the Spurs were the tougher team today. They took a 20-point lead into the fourth quarter and coasted from there, taking the life out of a stunned capacity crowd. The Rockets unraveled during the final 7 minutes 30 seconds of the third quarter when the Spurs went on a 19-5 run to take a 78-58 lead.

It was a frustrating day for all the Rockets, including Hakeem Olajuwon (20 points, 14 rebounds, 9-for-24 shooting). Houston's center had his way with Robinson during the first two games of the series, averaging 34 points, but Robinson's low-post defense was outstanding. With Robinson containing Olajuwon, the other Spurs were free to take away Houston's perimeter game. The Rockets shot just 3 for 16 from 3-point range, and 39 percent over all.

Could it be that Robinson has begun to solve Olajuwon's seemingly endless array of low-post moves?

"Solve Hakeem?" Robinson asked incredulously. "You don't solve Hakeem. I played him tough and he's only human. He can't score 40 points every game.

"One thing I was getting caught up in was trying to match Hakeem bucket for bucket. That's just an ego thing. That's not my game. My game is different from Hakeem's. I have to play my game -- that's playing defense, rebounding and scoring when the opportunity is there."

And while Robinson is only one weapon in San Antonio's attack, Olajuwon is being forced to carry Houston. Six Spurs reached double figures today. Vinny Del Negro (19 points), Avery Johnson (14 points), Rivers (13 points), and Sean Elliott (13 points) took pressure off Robinson. Olajuwon had no such help. No other Rocket scored more than 13 points, including Clyde Drexler (12 points), who shot a frigid 3 for 11. Without Olajuwon scoring at least 30 points a game against the Spurs, it will be tough for Houston to win.

Bob Hill, San Antonio's coach, summed up the Spurs' theory regarding Olajuwon's scoring.

"I said during yesterday's practice, 'I don't care if Hakeem scores 60,' " Hill said. " 'If we win, I don't have a problem with that.' David said, 'I've got a problem with that.' "

But the only problem the Spurs had today was figuring out why they have not been able to win a game at home in this series. The Rockets wondered the same thing.

"We used to be a very good home team," said Rudy Tomjanovich, Houston's coach. "This year, it just hasn't happened. When I find out what it is, I'm going to get some Raid and kill it."

Meanwhile, the Spurs felt much better about their chances than they did when they trailed, 2-0.

"I definitely think one of these teams is going to win at home," Robinson said. "We have to take advantage of the home court in Game 5."

Spoiler:

Robinson does duty on defense
San Antonio’s MVP center plays Olajuwon to a standstill
By Al Carter
Dallas Morning News

HOUSTON — The admiral did his duty Sunday. But in David Robinson’s case, duty did not include going down with the ship.

Robinson once again answered the call to sacrifice life and limb — but most of all, precious limelight — for the cause of refloating the San Antonio Spurs. And if that meant having to baby-sit Houston center Hakeem Olajuwon in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, so be it.

Robinson’s solo defensive effort on Olajuwon freed teammates to roam a wider perimeter and pin a 103-81 loss on the starved-out Rockets at The Summit.

“I know sometimes you go out and want to match Hakeem bucket for bucket,” Robinson said. “But that’s the ego thing. I want to win games.”

The strange thing was, Robinson got to do both.

Both Robinson and Olajuwon finished with 20 points as the Spurs knotted the series 2-2.

Robinson, however, had five teammates willing to match his double figures. With Olajuwon not drawing defensive fire from anyone other than Robinson, the Rockets withered at all other phases.

Led by Dennis Rodman’s 19 rebounds, the Spurs dominated the boards, 64-39. The Rockets shot only 39 percent.

Spurs coach Bob Hill said the difference was simply a new understanding that Robinson, this year’s NBA most valuable player, had to go solo with Olajuwon, last year’s MVP, to keep the Spurs’ fast-break strategy intact.

Even if that meant Robinson giving up some freedom on offense.

“We have to play teams a certain way,” Hill said. “We can’t worry about how many points David gets versus Hakeem. The MVP award is a regular-season award. Now it’s the playoffs. There are no awards now except for winning.”

Olajuwon, who averaged 37 points in the first three games of the series, connected on only nine of 24 shots.

“He’s got that Superman cape, and all you can do is try to make him take tough shots,” Robinson said of Olajuwon. “If I can do that, I’ve done my job.”

“You have to give them credit,” Olajuwon said of the Spurs. “They came out fighting. They made good decisions. We were not patient. We were not creative. We have to be creative. That’s how we win.”

Robinson said the Spurs won because they were able to stick to their formula.

“I think we’re starting to figure out what got us here,” he said. “If we don’t take advantage of our quickness and the fast break, we’re just hurting ourselves.”

The Rockets took 16 three-pointers. They made only three.

“One thing we wanted to take away was the wide-open threes,” Robinson said. “The last two games, I think we’ve done a pretty good job. That’s made a little bit of difference.”

“Now we’re back to square one,” Olajuwon said. “This series is just starting over again.”

Game 5

Spoiler:

Rockets are true road warriors again
 NBA West: Homecourt means absolutely nothing as Houston blitzes San Antonio, 111-90, in San Antonio

By BOB BAUM
The Associated Press

SAN ANTONIO—The weirdness continues in the West.

The Western Conference finals are a homecourt horror show, where the cheers of a packed arena spell doom for the home team.

Game 5 of this topsy-turvy, Alice In Wonderland series, where being at home is bad and playing on the road is good, followed the path of the previous four. The winners, in a runaway, were the Houston Rockets.

Houston won its fifth in a row on the road to lead the best-of-seven series 3-2, and the home team has yet to win a game.

The same Rockets who were blown out in the Summit by San Antonio on Sunday downed the Spurs 111-90 Tuesday night in the Alamodome to move the defending champions within one victory of a return trip to the NBA Finals.

“This is the strangest playoff series I’ve ever been involved in,” Houston Coach Rudy Tomjanovich said. “How can you figure it out?”

Hakeem Olajuwon had 42 points, nine rebounds and eight assists, his third 40-plus scoring performance in four games.

“I think his performance in some regards broke our spirit,” San Antonio Coach Bob Hill said. “It seemed like he made every shot he took.”

But it wasn’t just Olajuwon. Sam Cassell and Robert Horry had major contributions.

“After two disappointing losses, we had to regroup ourselves,” Olajuwon said. “We were very lucky the series was tied 2-2. We came back here and played with confidence and played team basketball.”

Cassell, who started the game shooting 1-for-7, made seven of his next nine shots and scored 30, one short of his career playoff high. He scored 22 in the second half, 14 in the fourth quarter, and grabbed an offensive rebound that set up two free throws that ended any faint hope of a Spurs’ rally. He also had 12 assists.

Horry had 14 points and 13 rebounds. He even wrestled the ball away from Dennis Rodman under the San Antonio basket during a 7-0 Houston run at the end of the third quarter that spelled the beginning of the end for the Spurs, who have lost four in a row at home.

After being outrebounded 64-39 in Sunday’s 103-81 loss, the Rockets fought the Spurs to a 38-38 standstill on the boards Tuesday night. They also turned 22 San Antonio turnovers into 29 points.

Clyde Drexler added 19 points for Houston. David Robinson had 22 points, 12 rebounds and seven turnovers for San Antonio. Avery Johnson added 20 points for the Spurs.

“Not in a million years would I guess we could lose three home games in this series,” Robinson said. “No way, but it’s happened.”

Houston, 7-3, on the road in the playoffs, can advance to the finals with a breakthrough win at home Thursday night. If this bizarre trend of visiting victories continues, Game 7 would be Saturday in San Antonio.

The sixth-seeded Rockets would tie the 1981 Houston squad as the lowest seed to advance to the finals.

Rodman was in the doghouse again Tuesday. He was held out of the Spurs’ starting lineup for showing up 35 minutes late for a Monday practice. He entered the game with 4:49 left in the first quarter.

Rodman finished with 12 rebounds and five points, but was scoreless with just four rebounds in the second half.

The Spurs spent Monday night in a hotel in an attempt to end the home-court jinx that has plagued both teams. But they started and finished the game as if they were coming off a rough night in Juarez.

San Antonio never led. The Spurs fell behind by 16 in the first quarter, cut it to three in the second and dropped behind by 11 early in the third. But San Antonio finally caught the Rockets, tying it 71-71 on Vinny Del Negro’s 10-footer with 2:33 left in the third quarter.

The Alamodome, packed to its 35,888 capacity, was rocking. Fans felt they were on their way to their first trip to the finals. Then everything fell apart.

Robinson was called for goal tending on Cassell’s drive, then Rodman fouled Cassell, who made two free throws.

Olajuwon, who was hot from the outside all night and finished 19-for-30 from the field, made a 15-footer. Horry made a 3-point play. Cassell drove for a layup and the Rockets led 82-73 at the end of the third quarter.

The run reached 11-0 when Cassell sank a three-pointer that made it 87-73. The Spurs never recovered.

Game 6

Spoiler:

Spurs become road kill at Houston

HOUSTON (AP) — The I-10 series between Houston and San Antonio is over, and the Spurs are road kill.

Perhaps no team has had a more precarious or improbable route to the NBA Finals than the Rockets.

They were defending champions. But after a sixth-place finish in the Western Conference, nobody gave the Rockets much of a chance for a repeat title.

Now, after coming back from the brink of elimination against Utah and Phoenix, Houston has disposed of San Antonio, the team with the league’s best record, and is headed back to the Finals.

“Once again, we proved all the doubters wrong,” Houston’s Sam Cassell said. “This ball club is a playoff team. When the playoffs come, we know what to do.”

The Rockets finished off the Spurs 100-95 Thursday night, putting to rest the homecourt demons that haunted this series. It took six tries, but finally the home team won a game, and Houston won the best-of-7 series 4-2.

“I’m probably the proudest man in the world,” Houston coach Rudy Tomjanovich said. “I don’t want to take anything away from last year. It was special. I don’t want to tarnish that, but right now this was better.”

As usual, Hakeem Olajuwon was magnificent. He had 39 points, 17 rebounds and five blocked shots. In six games against the league’s MVP, David Robinson, Olajuwon averaged 35.3 points and 12.5 rebounds.

The showdown between these two Texas towers was no contest. Olajuwon’s play made his fifth-place finish in this year’s MVP voting seem ridiculous.

“I’ve never seen anyone on this planet play like this guy,” Houston’s Clyde Drexler said. “He is phenomenal, night in and night out. He does it so easily people come to expect it. That’s the ultimate.”

Drexler, the Rocket without a championship ring, had a rough start Thursday night, but he made big plays down the stretch and finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Olajuwon’s biggest help, though, came from Robert Horry. Shifted to power forward much of the time as coach Rudy Tomjanovich went with a smaller lineup, Horry made six of 11 3-pointers and scored 22 points.

His last 3-pointer, with 1:58 to play put Houston ahead 97-93, then he clinched the victory by making the two free throws 13 seconds from the finish.

“I was feeling it the whole game,” Horry said. “When it’s a hot gym, I get into the flow of things.”

Robinson scored 19 for San Antonio, but missed two free throws and committed a fatal turnover in the final 1:06.

Avery Johnson had 19 points and 10 assists, Sean Elliott scored 18 points and Dennis Rodman had 14 points and 17 rebounds for the Spurs.

Someone asked the Rockets’ Kenny Smith if, with all the dramatic comebacks, this was a team of destiny.

“I wouldn’t say destiny,” he said. “I can’t predict the future. But when we put our game together, no one can beat us.”

The clincher didn’t come easily. After Drexler stole Robinson’s pass and found Elie for a layup with 5:56 to play, Houston led 92-83.

But San Antonio’s Doc Rivers scored seven during a 10-0 run. Robinson capped the rally with a free throw, putting the Spurs ahead 93-92 with 2:42 remaining.

Robinson drew his fifth foul with 9:48 left and went to the bench, but came back for what probably was the most miserable 6 minutes, 15 seconds of his career.

Drexler, who came to his hometown of Houston in a Valentine’s Day trade, made two free throws to put the Rockets ahead for good, 94-93 with 2½ minutes to play.

“We were in position to take it,” Spurs coach Bob Hill said. “We just couldn’t finish it.”

Robinson, just 6-for-17 from the field for the game was 0-for-3 in the final quarter. After he missed inside, Horry made his final 3-pointer.

Robinson also missed two free throws with 1:06 remaining. After Cassell made one of two free throws, Rodman’s rebound basket with 28 seconds to go kept San Antonio’s fading hopes alive.

But Horry was fouled by Rodman and made both free throws.

San Antonio had won four straight on the road and liked it chances of sending the series back to the Alamodome for a deciding Game 7, especially since Houston was playing its 16th game in 30 days.

Spoiler:

Olajuwon won matchup battle with Robinson
By Michael Graczyk
Associated Press writer

HOUSTON—David Robinson was crunched by Hakeem Olajuwon in crunch time.

“I don’t think I’ve felt anything like this since I’ve been in sports,” Robinson said after he disappeared in the fourth quarter Thursday night, and his San Antonio Spurs were eliminated from the NBA playoffs by the defending champion Houston Rockets.

“It’s a crummy way to end a good year,” this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player said.

Robinson finished with 19 points in the 100-95 loss, but scored just one point in the final period with the game on the line. He missed his last three shots and three of his last four free throws.

“I feel like I let the guys down,” he said. “That hurts as much as anything.”

For most of the series, Robinson was overshadowed by Olajuwon, the 1994 MVP.

“He was very, very good,” Robinson said of Olajuwon. “He hit the tough shots most of the time. I think I defended him very well. The man played as well as anybody I’ve seen in a long time.”

Olajuwon had three 40-plus point games and had 39 in Thursday’s victory that sent Houston back to the NBA Finals.

“He’s a 7-foot Michael Jordan,” the Spurs’ Avery Johnson said of Olajuwon, who finished fifth to Robinson in this year’s MVP voting.

Robinson said he was so disappointed he wasn’t sure he would even pay attention to what happens in the Finals.

“I’d like to see them win because they played so well to beat us,” he said. “I don’t even know if I’ll watch any more basketball. This is the worst I’ve felt.”

Spurs coach Bob Hill said people who watched the series should take into consideration that the Rockets were double-teaming Robinson, while the Spurs chose to have Robinson go one-on-one against Olajuwon.

“There’s a lot of talk he kicked David’s backside,” Hill said. “If you take a closer look, we didn’t double. David accepted that responsibility.

“He had a wonderful year. The award is given for the regular season. He’s learned a lot because of this experience.”

It may be one Robinson doesn’t want to remember.

In the fourth quarter, with the Spurs trailing 79-77, Robinson missed a 9-foot jumper. A minute later, he picked up his fourth foul on a drive by Sam Cassell and had to go to the bench.

With 2:43 to go, Olajuwon blocked a layup attempt by Robinson, but the Spurs rebounded and Robinson drew a foul. He made the first free throw, but missed the second, putting the Spurs ahead 93-92. It was to be their last lead.

Robinson missed a layup with 2:17 to go and Robert Horry got the rebound for Houston. Then Robinson missed two free throws with 1:06 left, and with 50 seconds to go, he turned the ball over.

“I shoot free throws very well. And then I missed two at the end,” Robinson said. “It’s the little things that hurt most during crunch time. The little things make the difference. That’s what hurts me most.”

“I’ve never seen anybody on this planet play like this guy,” the Rockets’ Clyde Drexler said of Olajuwon.

“I just try to establish my game and play my game,” Olajuwon said. “Our system, our plays, just playing to win.”

Notice how rapidly the perception switches. The one of the first four games is "battle of the titans", "Olajuwon scores a lot but Robinson holds his own defensively", etc. And then, the post- G6 articles all of a sudden posit "Olajuwon dominated Robinson all series", "Robinson was crunched in crunch time". This isn't me spinning narrative, you can literally see this progression in the articles.

Never has perception of a player changed so rapidly over a two game stretch.

And I get it. Houston won in dramatic fashion with their backs against the wall in 3 straight series. Olajuwon's scoring was otherworldly. But Robinson was great too, and he was better than Olajuwon over the 90 previous games of the season. And pay attention to the Bob Hill quotes after G6. The plan was to single cover Olajuwon and stay home on the shooters. The plan was to let Olajuwon get what he wanted and stop the rest of the team.

Oh, and pay attention too to every mention of Dennis Rodman. If you don't believe the catastrophic effect he had on this team, read the articles from G4 and G5 very closely. Game 4, he plays the full game, causes no distractions. Spurs blowout. Game 5, he sits the second half and plays poorly when he does play. Rockets blowout. This is a very common theme in the series.

BTW- the games are all on YouTube, courtesy of Dipper. I encourage everyone to go take a look.

Oh and a bonus:

"Obviously, the key to this series is being on the road," said Doc Rivers, San Antonio's point guard. "We're going home. It could be tough."

Doc being Doc, even as a player

I have this entire series on my HD, I saw all the games about 6 years ago, and then it didn't seem to me like all that ass kicking, as we are saying here. I can agree with you that David had a more complete overall game and when it concerns defense and attention to detail, he really put more effort than Hakeem on a minute per minute basis. David was a bit better screener, pick setter, a better rotator on defense, maybe better on help and recover actions and so on, BUT, could he be able to provide such volume scoring in the variety of ways against a great defender the same way Olajuwon did, provided that he had the same defense burden (a little less responsibility than Robinson himself had), that Hakeem had? I don't think so. And that's the key to me, for all the importance that super elite defense has, super elite offense is even more important, the ability to put the ball in the basket at that kind of volume is even intangible to really be fully accounted for. I see this matchup kind in the same degree as Jordan x Drexler in the 92 finals, for instance: Drexler did some intangible things better than Jordan on that series, positioning for box outs, for instance. He had better position against MJ more often than not on the matchup, but Jordan was even way better scoring the ball on greater volume and efficiency, so, even if we can find 3 or 4 other intangibles things that Clyde did better, Jordan was decisive better at the most important thing, in providing elite offense for his team.

About supporting casts, I agree slightly with you. Rodman was really more of a cancer than not for the team, but the rest of the guys were comparable. Elliot x Drexler was a wash, for me. Dell Negro, Avery Johnson were in the same level as Cassel, Horry and the other Rockets role players were. So, Rodman really had a negative effect, and Robinson had a better regular season than Olajuwon, but Hakeem were better in the head to head series than proceeded to have another battle of a series against the already great Shaq, where the matchup was probably a wash too, but he won the title. I'd still give the edge to Olajuwon over Robinson in 95.

[Nbafanatic]

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

In '95, he had a mediocre series in the first round, but he faced Mutombo. Robinson's offensive game wasn't really that well-suited as a #1 offensive option in the postseason, to begin with, and then you factor in that he faced the DPOY at his position...Anyway, the Spurs still swept the Nuggets quite easily.

Then, he had a great series against the Lakers in the second round.

His performance in the WCF against Houston is underrated. He wasn't horrible by any means. I'd say better than he was in the '96 Utah series.

I agree with this. The issue about Robinson being the third peak of all time is putting him above Hakeem on this 95 season, when even Hakeem's peak is more suitable to be 93 or 94. The Spurs had some tough breaks on the WCF 95 against the Rockets, they lost game 1 much because of one of Rodman's antics, not listening to a timeout huddle, for instance. The Spurs had more of a motion offense, therefore Robinson worked a lot as a decoy on their offense, when the Rockets were more pragmatic posting up Hakeem a lot, and Robinson faced the dream with single coverage most of the time, as the Rockets always used as their Modus Operandi to bring double teams against the centers, to preserve Hakeem more, using more rotation and scrambling defenses. Anyway, even if we can attenuate a little for Robinson in this series, and it's true, he had a good series, only Olajuwon was fantastic, and there lies the problem... Is very hard to put Robinson above Hakeem this year.

It is. I admit that. But is it hard because we actually believe Hakeem the better player, or because deep down we have trouble accepting that the better player may have lost in a performance in which it was popularly described as "Hakeem dominates Robinson"? Like, how much of it is just that the narrative stuck from when you watched that series as a kid and now 15 years later you're finding it difficult to go against something you've believed for so long?



Notice how rapidly the perception switches. The one of the first four games is "battle of the titans", "Olajuwon scores a lot but Robinson holds his own defensively", etc. And then, the post- G6 articles all of a sudden posit "Olajuwon dominated Robinson all series", "Robinson was crunched in crunch time". This isn't me spinning narrative, you can literally see this progression in the articles.

Never has perception of a player changed so rapidly over a two game stretch.

And I get it. Houston won in dramatic fashion with their backs against the wall in 3 straight series. Olajuwon's scoring was otherworldly. But Robinson was great too, and he was better than Olajuwon over the 90 previous games of the season. And pay attention to the Bob Hill quotes after G6. The plan was to single cover Olajuwon and stay home on the shooters. The plan was to let Olajuwon get what he wanted and stop the rest of the team.

Oh, and pay attention too to every mention of Dennis Rodman. If you don't believe the catastrophic effect he had on this team, read the articles from G4 and G5 very closely. Game 4, he plays the full game, causes no distractions. Spurs blowout. Game 5, he sits the second half and plays poorly when he does play. Rockets blowout. This is a very common theme in the series.

BTW- the games are all on YouTube, courtesy of Dipper. I encourage everyone to go take a look.

Oh and a bonus:

"Obviously, the key to this series is being on the road," said Doc Rivers, San Antonio's point guard. "We're going home. It could be tough."

Doc being Doc, even as a player

I have this entire series on my HD, I saw all the games about 6 years ago, and then it didn't seem to me like all that ass kicking, as we are saying here. I can agree with you that David had a more complete overall game and when it concerns defense and attention to detail, he really put more effort than Hakeem on a minute per minute basis. David was a bit better screener, pick setter, a better rotator on defense, maybe better on help and recover actions and so on, BUT, could he be able to provide such volume scoring in the variety of ways against a great defender the same way Olajuwon did, provided that he had the same defense burden (a little less responsibility than Robinson himself had), that Hakeem had? I don't think so. And that's the key to me, for all the importance that super elite defense has, super elite offense is even more important, the ability to put the ball in the basket at that kind of volume is even intangible to really be fully accounted for. I see this matchup kind in the same degree as Jordan x Drexler in the 92 finals, for instance: Drexler did some intangible things better than Jordan on that series, positioning for box outs, for instance. He had better position against MJ more often than not on the matchup, but Jordan was even way better scoring the ball on greater volume and efficiency, so, even if we can find 3 or 4 other intangible things that Clyde did better, Jordan was decisive better at the most important thing, in providing elite offense for his team.

About supporting casts, I agree slightly with you. Rodman was really more of a cancer than not for the team, but the rest of the guys were comparable. Elliot x Drexler was a wash, for me. Dell Negro, Avery Johnson were in the same level as Cassel, Horry and the other Rockets role players were. So, Rodman really had a negative effect, and Robinson had a better regular season than Olajuwon, but Hakeem were better in the head to head series than proceeded to have another battle of a series against the already great Shaq, where the matchup was probably a wash too, but he won the title. I'd still give the edge to Olajuwon over Robinson in 95.

[70sFan]

I don't have a time right now to explain my choises. I will do it later.
1st ballot - Wilt Chamberlain 1967
2nd ballot- Kareem Abdul Jabbar 1971/1974/1977
3rd ballot - LeBron James 2012/2013


One think is strange for me. When Wilt played as a volume scorer, people talk about pace and inflated stats. For his 1967 season, they say he scored too low and played only finisher role on offense. That's just not true. He played in the post every time he steps on the court. Even as a Laker, he wasn't finisher but post player who shoot at low volume.
Do you really think Wilt couldn't be volume scorer in 1967? Look at his series in playoff vs Royals. He averaged 30 ppg. on 60+%TS.

I would vote for Wilt at first, he would be my first choice until he get the spot. I think he was the most dominant player ever at his peak and nothing would change my opinion (research confirme my statment, for me at least).
I'm not sure about his peak. 4 seasons come to mind: 1964, 1966 and 1967. 1968 is debatable (Wilt best defensive season) but his last 2 games vs Celtics hurts it a bit. 1966 season is underrated I think. Philadelphia had best record in the league, he anchors 2nd best defense. This team, while in terms of roster looks similar to next year, was much different than 1966-67 team. You could argue that he didn't play great vs Russell, but he had monster elimination game:
46 points 34 rebounds (19/34, 8/25)
Also, keep in mind that his teammates played just poor:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/1966.html#playoffs_per_game::none
Only Luke Jackson had similar numbers to his RS numebrs, but he wasn't main offensive weapon. Nobody could win against Celtics with such a bad-playing supporting cast. Not "MDE" Shaq nor Jordan.
Right now, I would still choose 1967 as his peak, but I want to see opinions about his 1966 season.
About other votes, Kareem was amazing player at his peak, for me the best offensive bigman ever (sorry Shaq and Wilt). He loses vs Wilt because of worse rebounding and defense (but still all-time great). I just don't know which year I should choose. He was at his best in 1972, he was probably the best player ever during RS. BUT, he played much worse in playoffs. Bad vs Thurmond (not a suprise) and very good, but not good enough vs Wilt.
In 1971 he had his second best RS, but in playoffs he was arguably outplayed by old Wilt, thats not good for a all-time great peak.
1974 and 1977 looks less dominant in RS, but in playoffs he was amazing (particualy in 1977). I just don't know...
About LeBron, I'm between his 2013 RS and 2012 Playoffs. He was at his best offensively in 2014 I think, but his defense is less consistent. I just think that Miami LeBron is a more complete player than Cavalier. I don't love his game, but after this 2 season I've changed my mind about him. I have huge respect for him right now, he was amazing during this time.

[Quotatious]

Something to consider for those who like '13 LeBron over '09.

James led 66-win teams in both '09 and '13, in the Eastern conference. 2009 Cavs had 8.68 SRS, 2013 Heat had 7.03. Eastern conference was stronger in 2009 than it was in 2013, based on SRS - actually, the Eastern teams have a slight edge over the Western teams based on SRS, in 2009, and Western teams have the edge in 2013.

How amazing it is that LeBron led a team with Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas his top 2 teammates, to the same record, with higher SRS, than a team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as his top 2 teammates? Cleveland stars (LeBron included) averaged 75.7 games(so basically 76), Heat stars averaged 73, so it's not a big difference. It could certainly make a 2 or 3 win difference in favor of the '13 Heat, but not in terms of their SRS - Cleveland still would've had higher SRS.

To me it's just amazing.

I'm not saying that you're wrong if you choose '13 as his peak over '09, but I'm just trying to sway those who are not quite sure which year was better, towards '09. There are some obvious arguments in favor of '13, though, such as him having a more complete skillset, or the fact that he led his team to the title in '13 (the latter is IMO a poor argument, because he played a bit better individually in the '09 playoffs than '13, but many people still probably consider it a legit argument in favor of his 2013 campaign).

[thizznation]

Something to consider for those who like '13 LeBron over '09.

James led 66-win teams in both '09 and '13, in the Eastern conference. 2009 Cavs had 8.68 SRS, 2013 Heat had 7.03. Eastern conference was stronger in 2009 than it was in 2013, based on SRS - actually, the Eastern teams have a slight edge over the Western teams based on SRS, in 2009, and Western teams have the edge in 2013.

How amazing it is that LeBron led a team with Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskasas his top 2 teammates, to the same record, with higher SRS, than a team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as his top 2 teammates? Cleveland stars (LeBron included) averaged 75.7 (so basically 76), Heat stars averaged 73, so it's not a big difference. It could certainly make a 2 or 3 win difference in favor of the '13 Heat, but not in terms of their SRS - Cleveland still would've had higher SRS.

To me it's just amazing.

I'm not saying that you're wrong if you choose '13 as his peak over '09, but I'm just trying to sway those who are not quite sure which year was better, towards '09. There are some obvious arguments in favor of '13, though, such as him having a more complete skillset, or the fact that he led his team to the title in '13 (the latter is IMO a poor argument, because he played a bit better individually in the '09 playoffs than '13, but many people still probably consider it a legit argument in favor of his 2013 campaign).

2013 LeBron had more aesthetically pleasing, all around offensive game when compared to '09 LeBron. Especially if you don't pay attention to the drop in athleticism. But I think the extreme motor of '09 LeBron, filling up all these little gaps through out the entire game that you might not notice obviously, shows up in those advanced stats that Quotatious posted.

[70sFan]

Something to consider for those who like '13 LeBron over '09.

James led 66-win teams in both '09 and '13, in the Eastern conference. 2009 Cavs had 8.68 SRS, 2013 Heat had 7.03. Eastern conference was stronger in 2009 than it was in 2013, based on SRS - actually, the Eastern teams have a slight edge over the Western teams based on SRS, in 2009, and Western teams have the edge in 2013.

How amazing it is that LeBron led a team with Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskasas his top 2 teammates, to the same record, with higher SRS, than a team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as his top 2 teammates? Cleveland stars (LeBron included) averaged 75.7 (so basically 76), Heat stars averaged 73, so it's not a big difference. It could certainly make a 2 or 3 win difference in favor of the '13 Heat, but not in terms of their SRS - Cleveland still would've had higher SRS.

To me it's just amazing.

I'm not saying that you're wrong if you choose '13 as his peak over '09, but I'm just trying to sway those who are not quite sure which year was better, towards '09. There are some obvious arguments in favor of '13, though, such as him having a more complete skillset, or the fact that he led his team to the title in '13 (the latter is IMO a poor argument, because he played a bit better individually in the '09 playoffs than '13, but many people still probably consider it a legit argument in favor of his 2013 campaign).

In which year he was better defensively? 2009 or 2012/2013? Becasue while his stats looks better in 2009 I'm more impressed in his offensive game during Miami days.
Also, how much he declined defensively in 2014? I want to see your opinion cause you have much knowledge about LeBron career

[Quotatious]

2013 LeBron had more aesthetically pleasing, all around offensive game when compared to '09 LeBron. Especially if you don't pay attention to the drop in athleticism. But I think the extreme motor of '09 LeBron, filling up all these little gaps through out the entire game that you might not notice obviously, shows up in those advanced stats that Quotatious posted.

I think that insane motor is pretty important, especially on a team with no other legitimate stars, where he had to contribute a lot in all areas of the game and do so in heavy minutes.

Here's the thing with LeBron's '09 season that makes them think it's impossible that '09 was his peak - a lot of people think that LeBron's '09 postseason was just a hot streak/fluke, so with his '09 and '13 regular seasons being about equal, and '13 having more team success in the playffs, in addition to his more complete skillset, they choose '13 as his peak.

But, my counter-argument is - even if it was a fluke (I'm not saying it was, but let's assume that, hypothetically), why should we care? It happened in reality, and we should discuss things that actually happened.

Guys like T-Mac (in '03) or Brand (in '06) also had one outlier-ish season when they were so great that they deserve to be mentioned among the true all-time greats (T-Mac more so). Bill Walton sort of counts, too, but in his case, it was a lot more about his health - McGrady and Brand had several healthy seasons when they were stars, but only one truly great, MVP caliber season. For instance - Kobe had a far superior career compared to T-Mac, but McGrady arguably peaked higher. This is exactly why we started this project, isn't it?

Hell, even Dana Barros had one season (1994-95) when he was playing like a bonafide All-Star.

In which year he was better defensively? 2009 or 2012/2013?

Statistically, his defensive impact in '09 was at least as good as any of his Miami seasons, at least in the regular season. 2009 Cavs were clearly better defensively than the '13 Heat over a big sample size (entire regular season). 2012 Heat were slightly better defensively than the 2009 Cavs, but it's a very small difference (and we shouldn't assume that LeBron's defense was as good as his team's defense, obviously).

Also, how much he declined defensively in 2014?

It was a pretty big decline compared to all of his '09-'13 seasons. He was certainly coasting quite a bit. Stepped up when needed, but he wasn't the same dominant two-way force on a consistent basis.

I want to see your opinion cause you have much knowledge about LeBron career

I don't think I should be considered an expert when it comes to LeBron. Guys like SideshowBob, JLei, PCProductions, PaulieWal, MisterHibachi, toodles23, all know a lot more about LeBron than I do (and there are more very knowledgeable posters who know LBJ's game very well, I just don't remember everyone right now).

[70sFan]

In which year he was better defensively? 2009 or 2012/2013?

Statistically, his defensive impact in '09 was at least as good as any of his Miami seasons, at least in the regular season. 2009 Cavs were clearly better defensively over a big sample size (entire regular season). 2012 Heat was slightly better defensively than the 2009 Cavs, but it's a very small difference (and we shouldn't assume that LeBron's defense was as good as his team's defense, obviously).

Also, how much he declined defensively in 2014?

It was a pretty big decline compared to all of his '09-'13 seasons. He was certainly coasting quite a bit. Stepped up when needed, but he wasn't the same dominant two-way force on a consistent basis.

I want to see your opinion cause you have much knowledge about LeBron career

I don't think I should be considered an expert when it comes to LeBron. Guys like SideshowBob, JLei, PCProductions, PaulieWal, MisterHibachi, toodles23, all know a lot more about LeBron than I do (and there are more very knowledgeable posters who know LBJ's game very well, I just don't remember everyone right now).

Thanks for answer. My favourite version of LeBron is his 2014 season, but I don't think he was as good as in his earlier seasons (mainly because of defense). But, I think he was at his offensive peak then. Amazing post game, great shooter (much better than any of LeBron years) and still pretty athletic. As a Spurs fan I was scared when he had the ball during the finals (even though we won it pretty easilly).

How would you compare 1966 and 1964 Wilt seasons? I think he was better in RS and while he played worse in playoffs, I don't think he should take much a blame for a lose with such a bad-playing teammates. I think this was his best volume scoring season. He just killed h2h any HOF center (including Nate).

[thizznation]

Ballot #2 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77
(snip)
It's not the case with Kareem and Wilt. I mean - I don't feel nearly as comfortable evaluating them (especially Wilt), but based on the knowledge that I do have, the are my #2 and 3 candidates here.

1977 Kareem is pretty similar to 2009 LeBron, in the sense that both guys led mediocre teams to a great record, and got eliminated in the playoffs despite a GOAT level individual performance. LeBron was just better based on boxscore, and it also seems likely that his non-boxscore impact was higher. Even in the playoffs - LeBron at least led the Cavs to two wins against the Magic, while Kareem's team got swept in the WCF against the Blazers. It's certainly not his fault, but all those games (except for game 1, which Portland won by 12) were very close, decided by less than 5 points, so KAJ could've done a bit better job closing out those games.

It's interesting to see that you have 1977 for Kareem's peak, because 1977 and 1978 Kareem vs Walton was such a hot debate. In the Retro Player of the Year project, in particular, 1977 was considered razor close. I'd encourage anyone to go through that whole thread, but for one quote of interest to me:

77-78: Walton's impact versus Kareem's impact.

Sort of a crude on/off type of measure, but when players miss large chunks of time like Walton and Kareem (in 78) it gives us a fairly interesting interesting picture of their value. Obviously there are potential confounds like other injuries, strategy changes, schedule, etc. This is raw data so pace isn't adjusted for either. Nonetheless, thought this data was pretty darn interesting from this period:

Portland 1977:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   43-21    113.4    105.1       +8.3
W/O Walton    6-12     105.7    110.0       -4.3       0.26      61%
Total Difference                            +12.6


Los Angeles 78:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Kareem   37-24    111.9    107.8       +4.1
W/O Kareem    8-13     105.6    107.2       -1.6       0.03      48%
Total Difference                            +5.7


Walton's game on 12/30 and Kareem's season opener counted as "missed" games because they both played only a few minutes. Of course, there's more Walton data, as he went on to miss a comparable chunk of time in 1978 as well.

Portland 1978:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   48-10    110.4    100.4       +10.0
W/O Walton    10-14     101.0    104.3       -3.3      -0.07     58%
Total Difference                            +13.3


Now, one major difference between 77 and 78 in Portland was Lloyd Neal's play off the bench. Praised by commentators and writers, he actually led the 78 team in pts/36, posted a nice .179 WS/48 line, and had 31 points filling in for Walton in the first game he missed (a 111-106 win at Detroit). And still the profound difference is still there without Walton.

If we combine the two seasons and pro-rate the records to 82-games:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS   %Road Games
With Walton   61-21    112.0    102.9       +9.1
W/O Walton    31-51    103.0    106.7       -3.7       0.07     60%
Total Difference                            +12.6
         
With Kareem   52-30    111.9    107.8       +4.1
W/O Kareem    31-51    105.6    107.2       -1.6       0.03     48%
Total Difference                            +5.7



How much do you factor "impact" into your rankings? Kareem clearly had the better traditional/box score stats over Walton, but it's hard (for me at least) to see this and not conclude that 77-78 Walton (when healthy) was making a bigger impact on his teams than 77-78 Kareem (granted, Kareem's injury season was 1978 and not 1977, but the argument was made in the RPoY threads that there was very little difference between either player or either team from 77 to 78, and I buy that enough to make this a worthwhile comp IMO).

I'm really interested in yours and other takes on this, because prior to the RPoY I had Kareem as a potential GOAT candidate but since that project I can't shake the nagging thought that despite his ridiculous box score numbers Kareem may not have been having quite the GOAT-type impact that I might have expected. Any thoughts?

I'll chime in if you don't mind. In my opinion that on-off data is pretty interesting but it is an awfully small sample size. I believe score differential has some noise as well especially with a sample of 18 to 20 games per season. Walton could of had the better supporting cast with the better team concept. Lakers could of "stepped it up" in a few of those games with out KAJ vs medicore opponents. Maurice Lucas was a fantastic frontcourt-mate for Walton while Kareem didn't really have anyone like that on his team.

For the sake of the portability argument. What do you guys think would happen if KAJ played on the '77 Blazers and if Bill Walton played on the '77 Lakers?

[Owly]

the rest of the guys were comparable. Elliot x Drexler was a wash, for me. Dell Negro, Avery Johnson were in the same level as Cassel, Horry and the other Rockets role players were.

I'd disagree.

Hakeem's teammates were a better fit (shooters, spacers offensively who didn't demand the ball), substantially superior defenders (Horry, Elie were considered elite, Herrera quite good, Drexler and Cassell perhaps average or above with upside - Drexler once he grasped Houston's defensive schemes, Cassell's more a matter of motivation; fwiw other members of the team earlier in the season were also strong - Thorpe and Maxwell- only Smith of the core was below average, and not by a long way, because it was said he had a good grasp on Houston's schemes) and by the numbers (RS and playoff) and by reputation (the Spurs for Robinson's peak tended to be journeyman castoffs, whilst Houston's included their highly successful recent draft picks - Horry, Cassell, a nice secondary superstar in Drexler, Kenny Smith a high lottery pick who they'd been able to acquire cheaply because he took a year more than most to work it out - it is said you could work out if a guy was a player or not after three years, Kenny broke out in his fourth).

I could go into more detail (how Elliot wasn't Clyde Drexler, how '94 Robinson carried a more obviously rancid supporting cast to similar success, how awful - particularly defensively - Del Negro and Johnson and looked sans Robinson - and Elliot's rep as a defender was somewhat exposed when he played here, as it was in Detroit etc). But the core of the argument is there Hakeem had shooters which fit with him, he had some very good defenders (versus some very poor ones) and a bit more talent too. This doesn't mean he wasn't comprehensively outplayed by a superb Olajuwon performance in those playoffs, but he was substantially outgunned in terms of his cast.

[Nbafanatic]

the rest of the guys were comparable. Elliot x Drexler was a wash, for me. Dell Negro, Avery Johnson were in the same level as Cassel, Horry and the other Rockets role players were.

I'd disagree.

Hakeem's teammates were a better fit (shooters, spacers offensively who didn't demand the ball), substantially superior defenders (Horry, Elie were considered elite, Herrera quite good, Drexler and Cassell perhaps average or above with upside - Drexler once he grasped Houston's defensive schemes, Cassell's more a matter of motivation; fwiw other members of the team earlier in the season were also strong - Thorpe and Maxwell- only Smith of the core was below average, and not by a long way, because it was said he had a good grasp on Houston's schemes) and by the numbers (RS and playoff) and by reputation (the Spurs for Robinson's peak tended to be journeyman castoffs, whilst Houston's included their highly successful recent draft picks - Horry, Cassell, a nice secondary superstar in Drexler, Kenny Smith a high lottery pick who they'd been able to acquire cheaply because he took a year more than most to work it out - it is said you could work out if a guy was a player or not after three years, Kenny broke out in his fourth).

I could go into more detail (how Elliot wasn't Clyde Drexler, how '94 Robinson carried a more obviously rancid supporting cast to similar success, how awful - particularly defensively - Del Negro and Johnson and looked sans Robinson - and Elliot's rep as a defender was somewhat exposed when he played here, as it was in Detroit etc). But the core of the argument is there Hakeem had shooters which fit with him, he had some very good defenders (versus some very poor ones) and a bit more talent too. This doesn't mean he wasn't comprehensively outplayed by a superb Olajuwon performance in those playoffs, but he was substantially outgunned in terms of his cast.

First of all, let me clarify: I'm aware that Drexler was a better overall player than Elliot, I meant they were a wash in THAT particular series, impact wise. Elliot was in his prime, he was around 8 years younger than Drexler at the time, and the Rockets was an older team coming from behind in two very hard fought series, so I think is safe to assume the Spurs squad was fresher.

About your overall point, I can agree somewhat with better fit for Olajuwon. After the Drexler trade, the Rockets practically went small ball, with four shooters surrounding Hakeem almost at all times, so the Rockets fit was great. But the Spurs had some good chemistry, the team won 62 regular season games, of course that Robinson was the big reason, but no one does that with garbage. Even the 09 Cavs had some good role players alongside Lebron. Avery Johnson was a good point guard, a good cerebral one, and he wasn't that bad as a defender, he was pesky. Dell Negro and Wesley Person were good, although not great outside shooters, providing spacing. Rodman problems erupted in the worst possible time, but he was still beastly on the boards and defense. Elliot was a little overrated, yes, I give you that, but he was a good player when healthy, and he had a good 94/95 season... If we were judging him as a commentator, I would agree 100% with you. hehe