Peak Project #16

[theonlyclutch]

If Patrick Ewing is on the board already, then I don't see a reason why 2015 Anthony Davis shouldn't be, the Pelicans had a similar record (and better SRS) than the 1990 Knicks, despite:
-The starting PG missing half the season
-6 other starters/rotation players (including Davis himself) missing at least 10 games each

It's fairly evident that Davis is a hell of a off-ball finisher, much better than Ewing has been, and is therefore able to be much more efficient with his possessions, leading to a better (rel to lg) offense for the Pels as well,

[Clyde Frazier]

If Patrick Ewing is on the board already, then I don't see a reason why 2015 Anthony Davis shouldn't be, the Pelicans had a similar record (and better SRS) than the 1990 Knicks, despite:
-The starting PG missing half the season
-6 other starters/rotation players (including Davis himself) missing at least 10 games each

It's fairly evident that Davis is a hell of a off-ball finisher, much better than Ewing has been, and is therefore able to be much more efficient with his possessions, leading to a better (rel to lg) offense for the Pels as well,

I think davis being a "much better" off the ball finisher than ewing is pushing it. He was at his peak athletically in 1990. He scored 4.3 more PPG than davis on better efficiency (59.9% TS vs. 59.1% TS). He was also clearly a more polished defender than davis.

And c'mon... the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the knicks were oakley and gerald wilkins. Oakley missed 21 games that season. Mark Jackson was a great distributor, but far from a scoring threat (9.9 PPG on 49.2% TS).

[theonlyclutch]

If Patrick Ewing is on the board already, then I don't see a reason why 2015 Anthony Davis shouldn't be, the Pelicans had a similar record (and better SRS) than the 1990 Knicks, despite:
-The starting PG missing half the season
-6 other starters/rotation players (including Davis himself) missing at least 10 games each

It's fairly evident that Davis is a hell of a off-ball finisher, much better than Ewing has been, and is therefore able to be much more efficient with his possessions, leading to a better (rel to lg) offense for the Pels as well,

I think davis being a "much better" off the ball finisher than ewing is pushing it. He was at his peak athletically in 1990. He scored 4.3 more PPG than davis on better efficiency (59.9% TS vs. 59.1% TS). He was also clearly a more polished defender than davis.

And c'mon... the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the knicks were oakley and gerald wilkins. Oakley missed 21 games that season. Mark Jackson was a great distributor, but far from a scoring threat (9.9 PPG).

Considering that Ewing turned over the ball 2 times more per game than Davis (3.4 TOPG vs 1.4 TOPG), that more than compensates for whatever small edge in TS% and volume Ewing has over Davis, hence per-possession productivity still goes to Davis.

Of the leading scorers after Davis in order
Tyreke Evans: documented chucker on nearly as much primacy as Davis producing at 103 ORTG/50.8% TS, clearly not really positive
Jrue Holiday: Misses half the season
Ryan Anderson: Shoots under 40%, under league avg efficiency, and misses 20 games
Eric Gordon: Misses 20 games, not particularly consistent at all when he's playing..

That is not a good supporting cast on offense by any means, especially given the lineup fluctuations that happened all year long as a result of injuries..

[Clyde Frazier]

If Patrick Ewing is on the board already, then I don't see a reason why 2015 Anthony Davis shouldn't be, the Pelicans had a similar record (and better SRS) than the 1990 Knicks, despite:
-The starting PG missing half the season
-6 other starters/rotation players (including Davis himself) missing at least 10 games each

It's fairly evident that Davis is a hell of a off-ball finisher, much better than Ewing has been, and is therefore able to be much more efficient with his possessions, leading to a better (rel to lg) offense for the Pels as well,

I think davis being a "much better" off the ball finisher than ewing is pushing it. He was at his peak athletically in 1990. He scored 4.3 more PPG than davis on better efficiency (59.9% TS vs. 59.1% TS). He was also clearly a more polished defender than davis.

And c'mon... the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the knicks were oakley and gerald wilkins. Oakley missed 21 games that season. Mark Jackson was a great distributor, but far from a scoring threat (9.9 PPG on 49.2% TS).

Considering that Ewing turned over the ball 2 times more per game than Davis (3.4 TOPG vs 1.4 TOPG), that more than compensates for whatever small edge in TS% and volume Ewing has over Davis, hence per-possession productivity still goes to Davis.

Of the leading scorers after Davis in order
Tyreke Evans: documented chucker on nearly as much primacy as Davis producing at 103 ORTG/50.8% TS, clearly not really positive
Jrue Holiday: Misses half the season
Ryan Anderson: Shoots under 40%, under league avg efficiency, and misses 20 games
Eric Gordon: Misses 20 games, not particularly consistent at all when he's playing..

That is not a good supporting cast on offense by any means, especially given the lineup fluctuations that happened all year long as a result of injuries..

Not saying davis doesn't deserve mention, but like I said, I think 90 Ewing was pretty clearly more polished defensively. That's the difference to me.

[trex_8063]

Barkley vs. Malone
As it was often a debate during their overlapping careers, it's still an interesting (i.e. close) debate today, imo.

At the time I recall feeling Barkley peaked higher, and that Malone surpassed Barkley overall only late in his career by doing his best Energizer Bunny impression (just kept going and going and going). Still, I think it warrants taking a closer look.

Before I proceed, I guess I should specify where I think their respective peaks are…..

I tend to think of Barkley's peak as '90, as opposed to '93 (or ‘91, which I think is very close, too). '90 was more the culmination of skills and physical peak to me. No doubt his playmaking was a bit improved in '93; and Spaceman mentioned his improved proficiency from the mid-range (and greater willingness to use it) by '93, and stated this as a good thing. But tbh, I'm not sure it is a good thing for Barkley.

Because the thing is: he never really reached a point where he was a legitimately "good" mid-range shooter; fair or "not bad", but not actually good (at least not at all compared to the upshot that was present when he attacked the rim). And him taking nearly 3 attempts/game from trey at 30.5% isn't what I would call a good thing either.
Few things I note in relation to this greater willingness to shoot from mid-range or long range in ‘93: he had the lowest FG% since his rookie season, the lowest eFG% of his career to that point, the lowest FTr of his entire career (both before and after ‘93; by far lower than any year prior to ‘93), and the lowest TS% of his career to that point. Basically, many of the things that led to him being at or near the top of the league in 2Pt%, eFG%, and TS% (year-after-year) vanished in '93 as result of this greater tendency to shoot far from the basket.

Perhaps it could be argued the silver lining was that this opened the floor up a little to help the team offense or some such. Pro-'93 crowd would likely wish to point out that they were the #1 offense that year (+5.3 rORTG); however, this team was +3.9 rORTG (5th in league) the year before Barkley arrived (though he wasn’t the only roster change). But point still stands: this was a talented offensive team even without Barkley.

I'm frankly more impressed with the +5.4 rORTG (2nd in league) he anchored in '90 with a supporting cast of Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, Rick Mahorn, Ron Anderson, and Derek Smith, than I am with a +5.3 rORTG with a supporting cast of Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, Cedric Ceballos, Danny Ainge, Mark West, Richard Dumas, and Oliver Miller. And his individual numbers probably marginally more impressive in '90, too.

Take for instance him shooting >63% from 2pt range in THREE separate seasons ('90 was one of them); on his kind of volume, that’s insane. Seriously, who, outside of low-volume guys like Tyson Chandler or Chris Andersen ever shoots >63% from inside the arc? Even ‘67 Wilt doesn’t quite match…...you don’t even have to adjust for pace, merely adjust for minutes: if you do a search for all seasons in NBA history of >13 FGA/36 minutes, >63% 2Pt%, and >27 mpg you come up with precisely two seasons…..and BOTH of them are Barkley (‘89 and ‘90).
Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

So I tend to think of that time period as his offensive peak (and offense is really what you're talking about with Charles Barkley).


For Malone, I tend to look at either '97 or '98 as his peak. I know a lot of people like '92, because it's statistically his best playoff numbers. But his playoff numbers in '98 are barely behind, and that as part of a trip to the finals (he went for 25.0 ppg on 55.3% in the finals, too, though I know he flubbed a couple crucial moments in the series); and the rs was even better in '98 than ‘92 ('97 was probably his BEST all-around rs).
I like the more refined mid-range game and turnaround that he had by this time in his career. I don't find this to be a hindrance on his game like I did with Barkley (in fact, I think it was to his benefit) for three reasons: 1) he was BETTER from the mid-range than Barkley ever was; 2) he was never quite as dominant attacking the rim as Barkley (so there's less "lost upshot" of him not attacking the basket); and 3) with how much they worked the pnr 2-man game in Utah, it’s a good thing to have a mid-range shot to facilitate a pick n’ pop.
And lastly, I think he was a better defender at this point in his career than he was in '92 (perhaps evidenced by All-D 1st team selections in '97-'99).


So let’s look at ‘90 Barkley vs. '97-'98 Karl Malone......

Rebounding
Mostly focusing on defensive rebounding, as I’m to a small degree lumping offensive rebounding into their capabilities as scorers. Malone has a pretty decent edge over ‘90 Barkley on the defensive boards (DRB% of 24.5% between ‘97 and ‘98, vs. 20.0% for ‘90 Barkley).
Barkley was the better offensive rebounder (more on that below); but even with that, Malone still had the marginally higher TRB% (though same in reb/100 possessions).
So I’m giving Malone a small edge as a rebounder, especially given the focus on defensive rebounding in this category.

Passing/Playmaking
Malone by this point in his career is one of the best passing bigs of all-time, and is averaging 6.1 ast/100 possessions between ‘97-’98, vs. 4.3 tov/100. Barkley’s pretty good too, and I will hand it to Barkley that he also had the handles to do a bit more off the dribble, and particularly being the guy to LEAD the fast-break (not just finish it).
Overall, this category feels pretty close to a wash; if I had to pick I’d lean slightly to Malone.

Defense
Well this one is clearly a solid advantage to Malone. He was an excellent low-post defender, a very good pnr defender, quick enough to not be lost if caught on a switch, good on rotations, got a few steals and blocks (clearly without often being out of position for the defensive rebound).
Other than the defensive rebounds and getting some steals, Barkley was good at basically none of these things, at least not on any regular basis. I recall single plays where he was brilliant, but he didn’t show the effort or interest on a consistent basis. And I think his height was a bit of a liability in low-post defense.

Intangibles
Neither guy is amazing where intangibles are concerned, though not awful either. I imagine Barkley was probably better liked by his teammates in many instances, but Malone had the much better work ethic. I kinda like Malone a little better where things like screen-setting is concerned. I’d maybe have to re-watch some games, but off the cuff I think they were fairly similar as outlet passers.

Scoring
I’ll start on Malone. There’s no question he benefited from system and Stockton, but to hear some people talk about it, they’d have you believe that without Stockton he’s basically Zach Randolph as a scorer. Come on…..
He’s 6’9” 260 lbs of solid muscle, he runs the floor well (very well), has great hands, can finish very well (excellent/elite?), can shoot from the mid-range (quite well, really), had a few weapons in the post (turnaround, put his head down and plow into the middle of the lane for that little floating one-hander), could hit his FT’s, and was a pretty good offensive rebounder (8.4% ORB% in years specified)......that’s someone who is scoring a minimum of 23-24 ppg on at least “good” efficiency in basically any circumstance in any era. The only instance in which I could see him scoring less would perhaps be if on a team with TWO other superstars (like say he takes over Bosh’s role on the ‘11-’14 Heat).....he may only go for ~20-21 ppg in that circumstance, though likely on dynamite efficiency.
Here’s what he DID score in ‘97-’98:
39.5 pts/100 possessions @ 59.8% TS in 37.0 mpg in rs
36.2 pts/100 possessions @ 51.7% TS in 40.3 mpg in playoffs

His rs stats oversell his ability as a scorer, playoff numbers probably at least marginally undersell his scoring ability. Obv the playoff drop is a concern, but generally speaking he was probably just not a scorer meant to shoulder ~32% usage in the first place, and I’m sure he doesn’t manage it as well as he did without Stockton. Probably could have managed 24-25% usage pretty well though.

Barkley, as I alluded to above, is a scoring beast. Remarkable finisher, just amazing at attacking the basket. As good as Malone was at drawing fouls, Barkley was even better (and was a respectable FT-shooter at nearly 75% in ‘90).
I remember a thread somewhat recently about who had the best shot/pump-fake of all-time. Dantley of course was who came to mind for me. But Barkley had an amazing pump-fake, too. I can’t believe how often he’d get defenders to bite on it when he’s like 18-19 feet from the hoop (again: not really a good mid-range shooter in ‘90) when he’s so dangerous when attacking the interior.
Barkley was the better and more tenacious offensive rebounder, which is part of what facilitates his absurd shooting efficiency (high% put-backs), as well as “stealing” possessions from the opponent.

Barkley was so ridiculously strong, and with that low center of gravity, was outstanding at just backing defenders down in the post until he was close enough to explode at the rim. And did I mention he was strong? I swear, there were times he exploded up toward the rim, with ~6’10” guys hanging all over him…..and his body would just continue to rise; he would just power thru them.
Amazing in transition, too.
Barkley’s ‘90 scoring stats:
32.1 pts/100 possessions @ 66.1% TS [no, that’s not a typo] in 39.1 mpg in the rs
30.4 pts/100 possessions @ 58.9% TS in 41.9 mpg in the playoffs

I look at the playoff scoring that’s still elite-level (and with no one like Stockton to help him), and that utterly ridiculous rs efficiency---btw, search all the seasons with >23 pts/36 min, >65% TS, >27 mpg…...there are only 7 seasons ever, and 3 of them are Barkley (‘88-’90); make the mark >66% TS and there are only three seasons, two of which are Barkley---and I can’t help feeling that Barkley is the significantly more dominant scorer.

Is his superiority as a pure scorer enough to tip the scales given Malone’s edge as a defender and tiny edge as a rebounder? idk…..anymore, I’m not too sure. At the very least, it seems that wherever Barkley is in this project, Malone’s right behind him.

[theonlyclutch]

1st Ballot: 15 Curry

2nd Ballot: 14 Durant

3rd ballot is wide open ATM, thinking one of Dirk/Paul/Barkley/Davis/Wade/T-Mac and maybe some others as well, would also be open to moving Durant down if there is good logic for it.

I'm not sure about '90 as peak Barkley, although it's clearly above '93 for me, in the period from 88-91:
-Barkley takes the least primacy in '90 and scores the least
-His OBPM is the lowest (though still sky high) in '90
-His OWS is the lowest (except '91 where he misses sig. time)
-His PER is the 2nd lowest

While the team results are the best in '90, he arguably has a better playoff run in '91, given that Ewing, T-Mac and Wade are on plenty of ballots already (i.e Team records don't particularly matter), I would favor a peak at either
-'89: Essentially the same offense relative to the league with a worse cast, was a noticeably better rebounder on both ends
-'91: Takes on career-high primacy to great effect, leads NBA in OBPM (above '91 MJ!), career playoff high BPM by far with great passing/playmaking (28.4 AST%) for a big

[Dipper 13]

Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

Yes indeed. In the original 100 game sample of Barkley he was shooting 81.0% at the rim on 8.2 FGA. But I did not do the Synergy chart for the last 16 games. In the original 84 game sample (includes Synergy chart and Shot Chart), he was shooting 81.0% at the rim on 7.9 FGA per game. If we subtract all transition plays, the total is 467/574 for 81.3%. Even looking at half court plays only, Barkley's effectiveness is virtually unchanged at the rim.

But getting into the synergy plays, he was actually more efficient in multiple half court plays than he was on the fastbreak, which is saying something given how terrific he was in transition (1.6 PPP, 78.7% FG).

PPP is Points Per Play.


Post Up - 1.64 PPP, 76.5% FG, 3.5 FGA

Off. Rebound - 1.65 PPP, 78.2% FG, 2.1 FGA

Cut To Basket - 2.14 PPP, 100% FG, 0.9 FGA


As can be seen above, he was completely indefensible in the post, on the offensive glass, or cutting to the basket (100% FG). While he was definitely stoppable in isolation that was primarily due to him settling for the outside shot as you mentioned or if the defense could quickly close off the front of the rim and force an off balance leaning shot. Barkley was very efficient going to the basket no matter what, though he was most comfortable in the post.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6HkjByWLFU&t=1h17m3s


How do you defend this for instance, he spins out of playoff double teams so easily like a practice drill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmjUpA3UVlA&t=3m6s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsTKc_AKSlU&t=8m5s

[trex_8063]

1st ballot: Kevin Durant '14
I freely acknowledge the Durant is a completely average defender overall. But: very good to elite as both a rebounder and playmaker for a SF. And then GOAT-level pure scorer: 41.8 pts/100 possessions @ 63.5% TS . fwiw, I'd also constructed formula founded on Moonbeam's Score+ rating (I called mine "Modified Score+").......'14 Durant is the 2nd-highest MS+ rating on record (just barely behind '88 Barkley, and just barely ahead of '83 Dantley).
He couldn't quite maintain that in the playoffs, but still......35.9 pts/100 poss @ 57.0% TS while playing 42.9 mpg; that's still very elite level scoring, and---collectively with the rs numbers---has him in contention for greatest ever pure scoring season. And bear in mind the defense he was facing in the '14 playoffs:
1st round: -2.1 rDRTG (ranked 7th of 30; being guarded primarily by Tony Allen, who I think is arguably the greatest perimeter man-defender of this generation)
2nd round: -1.9 rDRTG (9th of 30)
3rd round: -4.3 rDRTG (3rd of 30; being guarded by Kawhi Leonard)


2nd ballot: Dirk Nowitzki '06
Helluv' an offensive anchor, who also must be listed as one of the greatest pure scorers, especially when factoring his ability to hold steady or even scale up in the playoffs. He didn't dwindle in the post-season in '06 while bringing his team to the brink; and I'll be honest, the '06 Finals almost has a small asterisk by it in my mind, as there was some fishy-seeming officiating going on in that one.

Why '06 over '11? I know his post game isn't as refined as in '11, and hasn't figured out how to deal with double-teams quite as well as in '11 either.....but I kinda like the better motor and mobility he had on him in his younger years, like that fact that he could carry the load and have a big impact for 38 mpg (instead of 34) while missing only a single game all year, too. Significantly better rebounder in '06 than he was in '11. And it was my impression of both eras of his career that he was a better defender in '06 (again maybe the better motility and lateral quickness, etc), though I'll admit the impact data does not reflect this opinion.


3rd ballot: Dwyane Wade '09
Wade this year was scoring at crazy volume (41.8 pts/100 poss) with pretty good efficiency despite no legit second option while shouldering >36% usage! And his scoring didn't fall off (in volume or efficiency) in the playoffs either.
He's also a pretty elite-level playmaking SG (10.3 ast/100 poss is pretty boss, especially when you don't have a legit 2nd option), very good rebounding SG, and excellent defensive guard. Impact data shines brightly upon him as well.
This was a super-close call, fwiw, and I'm not sure about it (I'm not sure about any of them, truthfully); was thinking hard on Stephen Curry, Tracy McGrady, and Charles Barkley (and Karl Malone), too.

[trex_8063]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsTKc_AKSlU&t=8m5s

Oh my goodness. It's almost not sufficiently impressed upon a viewer just how amazing that play was, because Barkley (nor his teammates) makes no reaction after the fact, and the crowd isn't sufficiently charged.......but seriously, I'm not sure there's anyone in the league today who could have made that play. It's like they're taking it for granted with Chuck ("ho hum, there goes Charles, he did it again...').

[drza]

Vote

1) Dirk Nowitzki 2011
2) Patrick Ewing 1990
3) Dwyane Wade 2010

This vote is difficult for me...just a second ago I had 08 Kobe in that third slot and Wade not on the ballot. I keep changing my mind. I'm pretty sure I voted Wade higher than both Dirk and Kobe in the last peak's project, but it's a fluid situation. I'm feeling Dirk at the top of the list as a mega impact player that put it together for his best season in 2011. Some of that may have been fit, as the team was built very well to his strengths, but that could be said of any of the super-elites that lead unheralded casts to a title. Dirk's offensive impact was proven over his long prime, but in that season his post-game combined with his mid-range game and still deadly jumper gave him an offensive gravity that he didn't have in his 06/07 years. And that mega offensive impact allowed the Mavs to be able to surround him with role players that could either defend at a high level or score adequately against unbalanced opposing defenses. Whether it was because of this, because his offensive efficiency slowed opposing easy shots, or because of improvements in Dirk's individual defense (likely a combo, IMO) Dirk's on-court presence also correlated with improvements in the Mavs' defense that seaosn to an unprecedented degree for his career. In addition to the huge impact that season, Dirk had a very portable game that was also very scaleable with better talent around him.

The Ewing posts have done an excellent job painting a picture that sways me. I seem to remember the same thing happening the last time through. High-scoring big men that have negative assist/TO ratios don't tend to have huge offensive RAPMs in my review of the data from 1998 - 2012, so I'm not looking at 90 Ewing as having an offensive impact commiserate with the best perimeter offensive stars on the board. But I would think that he was a net positive on offense with his high effiency/high volume scoring that translated well to that post-season. But more importantly, I believe him to be one of the best defensive impact players still on the board. I remember how scary he was in college, how high his expectations were in the pros, and that he was always seen as a defensive monster with question marks more on offense than anything else. Fatal's question from the post that Bastillon quoted was an interesting one...was 1990 Ewing very far away from 1995 David Robinson? If you buy that '90 Ewing is a defensive monster, when you factor in the postseason...you could actually argue in Ewing's favor.

Unsure what to do for the third slot. When I started this post I had '08 Kobe third. As I was writing about Dirk I decided to switch to '10 Wade. And if I keep talking I might get '03 TMac into the mix. Wade was the most explosive horizontally of the mix, and I think he had the highest measured impact of the crew in his peak year. TMac was the most explosive vertically of the mix, with the best 3-point shot, and his added size (realistically 6-9) made him more of a physical mismatch than the other two. Kobe in '08 was just so polished...he was a professional scorer that was able to take a few mph off his individual fastball and take advantage of a very good offensive cast and lift them into historic territory as a squad.

Of the 3, I feel like TMac was the most portable, Kobe was the most scaleable, and Wade had the highest single-season impact of the three. All are in the argument for the best non-Jordan SG seasons ever, IMO. I have all three of them just above Jerry West, but the argument could certainly be made that West's combo of elite shooting and playmaking could have gotten him into the argument if not pushing him to the front. Tough one.

At the end of this post, I've decided that I'm leaning Wade at the moment. But that's changing from second-to-second, so I'll submit this vote now but it may change again

[Clyde Frazier]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsTKc_AKSlU&t=8m5s

Oh my goodness. It's almost not sufficiently impressed upon a viewer just how amazing that play was, because Barkley (nor his teammates) makes no reaction after the fact, and the crowd isn't sufficiently charged.......but seriously, I'm not sure there's anyone in the league today who could have made that play. It's like they're taking it for granted with Chuck ("ho hum, there goes Charles, he did it again...').

- the angles he's able to find with multiple defenders on him
- the strength to even get up a shot
- the quickness of the release (or jump in this case)

It's just an absurd combination of skills in the paint.

[Dipper 13]

- the angles he's able to find with multiple defenders on him
- the strength to even get up a shot
- the quickness of the release (or jump in this case)

It's just an absurd combination of skills in the paint.

Perhaps just as important, he went up with two hands almost every single time. None of those fancy one handed attempts, for someone like him I imagine it prevented a lot of potential point blank misses. Even when he dunked it, the vast majority of the time it was with two hands. But in watching those games against the Bulls, it is something to see how little resistance Grant & Pippen are giving him, and they are two of the greatest defensive forwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xn5ohliJRcc&t=4m48s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkAoHTHzaOk&t=3m57s


Backs Antoine Carr deep in the paint, And-1 over Robinson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGyqXFcDTsU&t=16m13s


He could also out-quick or fake the opponent.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6athakY1w&t=1m28s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIz6nScvx94&t=1m35s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMygxSdvtlc&t=50s


Even besides scoring, he was also an excellent passer under pressure. Below we can hear Pippen telling Perdue to go double Barkley, "Go Will, Go Will", as he is ready to pick up Gilliam but not before the pass is out of Barkley's hands, since then he could also hit Pippen's man Ron Anderson at the top of the key for a jump shot. Pippen knows both players are only one pass away to Barkley out of the post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZtD0lej4Zc&t=3m40s


Replay:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6athakY1w&t=9m57s


Right through Grant's legs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsTKc_AKSlU&t=3m35s


Looks to hit Ruland in heavy traffic, who wasn't expecting it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkAoHTHzaOk&t=5m6s

[eminence]

1st Ballot: Stephen Curry 14-15 Huge huge huge offensive presence, never not a factor. At this point I feel like he's been severely underrated and deserved to get in several spots ago.

2nd Ballot: Dwyane Wade 08-09 Mini Mike. '06 is a fine choice as well (sometimes waver towards that one due to his '09 playoff injury problems).

3rd Ballot: Chris Paul 07-08 Playmaking puts him past most of the guys left on the board to me. Played brilliantly in the playoffs.

[Dr Spaceman]

If Patrick Ewing is on the board already, then I don't see a reason why 2015 Anthony Davis shouldn't be, the Pelicans had a similar record (and better SRS) than the 1990 Knicks, despite:
-The starting PG missing half the season
-6 other starters/rotation players (including Davis himself) missing at least 10 games each

It's fairly evident that Davis is a hell of a off-ball finisher, much better than Ewing has been, and is therefore able to be much more efficient with his possessions, leading to a better (rel to lg) offense for the Pels as well,

I think davis being a "much better" off the ball finisher than ewing is pushing it. He was at his peak athletically in 1990. He scored 4.3 more PPG than davis on better efficiency (59.9% TS vs. 59.1% TS). He was also clearly a more polished defender than davis.

And c'mon... the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers on the knicks were oakley and gerald wilkins. Oakley missed 21 games that season. Mark Jackson was a great distributor, but far from a scoring threat (9.9 PPG on 49.2% TS).

Actually I have no problem with saying Davis is a much better off-ball finisher. Ewing was superior in a couple ways, primarily post scoring and ORB (although I need to check the numbers for offensive board). But Davis right now might actually be the GOAT pick and roll big; his numbers are basically what we saw from Amar'e at the peak of his powers and Davis doesn't have Nash setting him up. It's also pretty visible that Davis has athletic gifts Ewing simply doesn't possess.

I'm not comfortable enough with Davis' defense to be bringing him up right now, and I think Ewing is the superior overall player for now, but Davis is probably the best finisher we've ever seen at this point and arguably the best mid-range shooter west of Wuerzburg. I take seriously the notion that Davis could one day be right up there with Kareem and Dirk as the best offensive bigs ever, and thus it's not crazy to me to say he has a huge advantage over Ewing in certain areas.

[Dr Spaceman]

Spoiler:

Barkley vs. Malone
As it was often a debate during their overlapping careers, it's still an interesting (i.e. close) debate today, imo.

At the time I recall feeling Barkley peaked higher, and that Malone surpassed Barkley overall only late in his career by doing his best Energizer Bunny impression (just kept going and going and going). Still, I think it warrants taking a closer look.

Before I proceed, I guess I should specify where I think their respective peaks are…..

I tend to think of Barkley's peak as '90, as opposed to '93 (or ‘91, which I think is very close, too). '90 was more the culmination of skills and physical peak to me. No doubt his playmaking was a bit improved in '93; and Spaceman mentioned his improved proficiency from the mid-range (and greater willingness to use it) by '93, and stated this as a good thing. But tbh, I'm not sure it is a good thing for Barkley.

Because the thing is: he never really reached a point where he was a legitimately "good" mid-range shooter; fair or "not bad", but not actually good (at least not at all compared to the upshot that was present when he attacked the rim). And him taking nearly 3 attempts/game from trey at 30.5% isn't what I would call a good thing either.
Few things I note in relation to this greater willingness to shoot from mid-range or long range in ‘93: he had the lowest FG% since his rookie season, the lowest eFG% of his career to that point, the lowest FTr of his entire career (both before and after ‘93; by far lower than any year prior to ‘93), and the lowest TS% of his career to that point. Basically, many of the things that led to him being at or near the top of the league in 2Pt%, eFG%, and TS% (year-after-year) vanished in '93 as result of this greater tendency to shoot far from the basket.

Perhaps it could be argued the silver lining was that this opened the floor up a little to help the team offense or some such. Pro-'93 crowd would likely wish to point out that they were the #1 offense that year (+5.3 rORTG); however, this team was +3.9 rORTG (5th in league) the year before Barkley arrived (though he wasn’t the only roster change). But point still stands: this was a talented offensive team even without Barkley.

I'm frankly more impressed with the +5.4 rORTG (2nd in league) he anchored in '90 with a supporting cast of Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, Rick Mahorn, Ron Anderson, and Derek Smith, than I am with a +5.3 rORTG with a supporting cast of Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, Cedric Ceballos, Danny Ainge, Mark West, Richard Dumas, and Oliver Miller. And his individual numbers probably marginally more impressive in '90, too.

Take for instance him shooting >63% from 2pt range in THREE separate seasons ('90 was one of them); on his kind of volume, that’s insane. Seriously, who, outside of low-volume guys like Tyson Chandler or Chris Andersen ever shoots >63% from inside the arc? Even ‘67 Wilt doesn’t quite match…...you don’t even have to adjust for pace, merely adjust for minutes: if you do a search for all seasons in NBA history of >13 FGA/36 minutes, >63% 2Pt%, and >27 mpg you come up with precisely two seasons…..and BOTH of them are Barkley (‘89 and ‘90).
Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

So I tend to think of that time period as his offensive peak (and offense is really what you're talking about with Charles Barkley).


For Malone, I tend to look at either '97 or '98 as his peak. I know a lot of people like '92, because it's statistically his best playoff numbers. But his playoff numbers in '98 are barely behind, and that as part of a trip to the finals (he went for 25.0 ppg on 55.3% in the finals, too, though I know he flubbed a couple crucial moments in the series); and the rs was even better in '98 than ‘92 ('97 was probably his BEST all-around rs).
I like the more refined mid-range game and turnaround that he had by this time in his career. I don't find this to be a hindrance on his game like I did with Barkley (in fact, I think it was to his benefit) for three reasons: 1) he was BETTER from the mid-range than Barkley ever was; 2) he was never quite as dominant attacking the rim as Barkley (so there's less "lost upshot" of him not attacking the basket); and 3) with how much they worked the pnr 2-man game in Utah, it’s a good thing to have a mid-range shot to facilitate a pick n’ pop.
And lastly, I think he was a better defender at this point in his career than he was in '92 (perhaps evidenced by All-D 1st team selections in '97-'99).


So let’s look at ‘90 Barkley vs. '97-'98 Karl Malone......

Rebounding
Mostly focusing on defensive rebounding, as I’m to a small degree lumping offensive rebounding into their capabilities as scorers. Malone has a pretty decent edge over ‘90 Barkley on the defensive boards (DRB% of 24.5% between ‘97 and ‘98, vs. 20.0% for ‘90 Barkley).
Barkley was the better offensive rebounder (more on that below); but even with that, Malone still had the marginally higher TRB% (though same in reb/100 possessions).
So I’m giving Malone a small edge as a rebounder, especially given the focus on defensive rebounding in this category.

Passing/Playmaking
Malone by this point in his career is one of the best passing bigs of all-time, and is averaging 6.1 ast/100 possessions between ‘97-’98, vs. 4.3 tov/100. Barkley’s pretty good too, and I will hand it to Barkley that he also had the handles to do a bit more off the dribble, and particularly being the guy to LEAD the fast-break (not just finish it).
Overall, this category feels pretty close to a wash; if I had to pick I’d lean slightly to Malone.

Defense
Well this one is clearly a solid advantage to Malone. He was an excellent low-post defender, a very good pnr defender, quick enough to not be lost if caught on a switch, good on rotations, got a few steals and blocks (clearly without often being out of position for the defensive rebound).
Other than the defensive rebounds and getting some steals, Barkley was good at basically none of these things, at least not on any regular basis. I recall single plays where he was brilliant, but he didn’t show the effort or interest on a consistent basis. And I think his height was a bit of a liability in low-post defense.

Intangibles
Neither guy is amazing where intangibles are concerned, though not awful either. I imagine Barkley was probably better liked by his teammates in many instances, but Malone had the much better work ethic. I kinda like Malone a little better where things like screen-setting is concerned. I’d maybe have to re-watch some games, but off the cuff I think they were fairly similar as outlet passers.

Scoring
I’ll start on Malone. There’s no question he benefited from system and Stockton, but to hear some people talk about it, they’d have you believe that without Stockton he’s basically Zach Randolph as a scorer. Come on…..
He’s 6’9” 260 lbs of solid muscle, he runs the floor well (very well), has great hands, can finish very well (excellent/elite?), can shoot from the mid-range (quite well, really), had a few weapons in the post (turnaround, put his head down and plow into the middle of the lane for that little floating one-hander), could hit his FT’s, and was a pretty good offensive rebounder (8.4% ORB% in years specified)......that’s someone who is scoring a minimum of 23-24 ppg on at least “good” efficiency in basically any circumstance in any era. The only instance in which I could see him scoring less would perhaps be if on a team with TWO other superstars (like say he takes over Bosh’s role on the ‘11-’14 Heat).....he may only go for ~20-21 ppg in that circumstance, though likely on dynamite efficiency.
Here’s what he DID score in ‘97-’98:
39.5 pts/100 possessions @ 59.8% TS in 37.0 mpg in rs
36.2 pts/100 possessions @ 51.7% TS in 40.3 mpg in playoffs

His rs stats oversell his ability as a scorer, playoff numbers probably at least marginally undersell his scoring ability. Obv the playoff drop is a concern, but generally speaking he was probably just not a scorer meant to shoulder ~32% usage in the first place, and I’m sure he doesn’t manage it as well as he did without Stockton. Probably could have managed 24-25% usage pretty well though.

Barkley, as I alluded to above, is a scoring beast. Remarkable finisher, just amazing at attacking the basket. As good as Malone was at drawing fouls, Barkley was even better (and was a respectable FT-shooter at nearly 75% in ‘90).
I remember a thread somewhat recently about who had the best shot/pump-fake of all-time. Dantley of course was who came to mind for me. But Barkley had an amazing pump-fake, too. I can’t believe how often he’d get defenders to bite on it when he’s like 18-19 feet from the hoop (again: not really a good mid-range shooter in ‘90) when he’s so dangerous when attacking the interior.
Barkley was the better and more tenacious offensive rebounder, which is part of what facilitates his absurd shooting efficiency (high% put-backs), as well as “stealing” possessions from the opponent.

Barkley was so ridiculously strong, and with that low center of gravity, was outstanding at just backing defenders down in the post until he was close enough to explode at the rim. And did I mention he was strong? I swear, there were times he exploded up toward the rim, with ~6’10” guys hanging all over him…..and his body would just continue to rise; he would just power thru them.
Amazing in transition, too.
Barkley’s ‘90 scoring stats:
32.1 pts/100 possessions @ 66.1% TS [no, that’s not a typo] in 39.1 mpg in the rs
30.4 pts/100 possessions @ 58.9% TS in 41.9 mpg in the playoffs

I look at the playoff scoring that’s still elite-level (and with no one like Stockton to help him), and that utterly ridiculous rs efficiency---btw, search all the seasons with >23 pts/36 min, >65% TS, >27 mpg…...there are only 7 seasons ever, and 3 of them are Barkley (‘88-’90); make the mark >66% TS and there are only three seasons, two of which are Barkley---and I can’t help feeling that Barkley is the significantly more dominant scorer.

Is his superiority as a pure scorer enough to tip the scales given Malone’s edge as a defender and tiny edge as a rebounder? idk…..anymore, I’m not too sure. At the very least, it seems that wherever Barkley is in this project, Malone’s right behind him.

Just wanted to say thank you, trex, for this post. Very very thorough analysis, and you've got me re-thinking my stance on Barkley's peak. FWIW, my position was mostly based on him having more ways to attack the defense in 93, and thus ostensibly more resiliency, but now you've got me thinking it's not enough to offset the huge efficiency dip (although less prominent in the playoffs).

Anyway yeah, Barkley is drastically underrated as an offensive player. Just for comparison's sake, I won't even consider a vote for Bryant until Barkley is off the board, and I think you could make the case he's right up there with most names were discussing now- not Curry or Nowitzki or Nash, but he's better than guys like Wade, West, etc. offensively IMO. Defense is the big question we have to answer.

There was a topic here not too long ago, about ranking the GOAT scorers, and I could craft an argument for Barkley any lower than 4, behind MJ, Dirk, and Shaq, and arguable with Kareem and LeBron. That's how highly I think of Barkley's offense.

[Dr Spaceman]

Ballot:

1. Stephen Curry 2015
2. Dirk Nowitzki 2011
3. Jerry West 1969

Curry has had a lot of support in this thread. I think he's an excellent candidate. Maybe it's just fatigue, but I'm debating whether I really think he was better than Nowitzki. But anyway, I'm sticking with him as my #1 here.

[E-Balla]

Proof:

Voted TMac over Wade and it was close. Wade has the security that he has won a ring while Tracy hasn't played more than 1 series a year. In the end Tracy's superior versatility won it for me. Dirk gets the 3rd spot for his offense almost 100%. Basically he's unstoppable on that end and his floor spacing is superb.

[bastillon]

Strongly disagree with 97-99 as peak for Karl Malone. That to me was clearly in the mid 90s (either 94 or 95). You should look at his skillset, not the numbers without context. His stats were heavily dependent on competition, as Karl Malone had tendency to underperform vs. quality opponents.

Nevertheless, in the mid 90s Karl Malone was at the peak of his powers:
-30 years old so basically around the age most players are at their best
-much more athletic than in the late 90s, simply ran the floor a lot better, was a quicker defender, played more mins (44 mpg in the postseason, that could never happen in the late 90s)
-much more polished than in the early 90s, jumpshot was a lot better, added fadeaway to his repertoire which he didn't really use around '90
-was much more utilized as a passer as opposed to early 90s

Personally I'd take 94. This is the year where Karl Malone faced in one playoff run David Robinson, Dikembe Mutombo and Hakeem. Basically played gainst three of top 5 defensive players of all-time. This should be taken into consideration looking at his playoff stats. He posted 27/12.4/3.4/1.4/0.8 which is a very good statline, at 53% TS and 113 ORtg (low TOV ratio in the playoffs). Plus, Malone put up incredible defensive performances in those playoffs. All of the guys he guarded performed significantly worse than they did in the RS.

This is when he dominated peak D-Rob in the playoff series. Malone put up 29/12/2 at 56% TS/118 ORtg v. 20/10/3.5 at 47% TS/104 ORtg. People often talk about how Hakeem dismantled D-Rob year later, but in 94 D-Rob was completely dominated by Karl Malone. Not only did Malone hold him in check on defense (D-Rob's averages relative to RS were dramatically lower), but he also dominated offensively.

After that, he put up 27/12/3/2/1 at 53% TS and 110 ORtg vs. Mutombo. In that series Malone played 46 mpg. We're talking about a 7-game series. It shows just how much more stamina he had in that period than during late 90s. I don't really see late 90s Karl Malone putting up that kind of performances game after game vs. Mutombo-anchored defense, playing those kind of minutes, exerting energy on both ends of the court and winning the series on the back of his 31/14/6/2 game 7 performance.

After that he faced Hakeem in the WCF and lost but played pretty well and against respectable competition - Thorpe was definitely a good man defender (Malone did a lot worse vs. Hakeem for the stretches Hakeem was guarding him, but it is to be expected since Hakeem is the best man defender of all-time).

So considering Malone's skillset (more polished than early 90s, with much more stamina and athleticism than in late 90s), his performances in the playoffs, and insane competition that he faced in the playoffs, this is to me clearly the best version of Karl Malone. You could argue that his b2b playoff series vs. D-Rob and Mutombo were his best playoff series ever. The work he was doing on both ends was pretty incredible, considering who he was going up against.

General note: I think voters in this project have been focusing way too little on the context behind the numbers. I rarely see any analysis concerning competition certain players were going up against. In vacuum Tim Duncan's 2003 playoff run really stands out like almost no other. But when you consider the garbage players Duncan was playing against, it really does not. To me it is much more impressive to dominate peak David Robinson than to feast on Amare and Najera all series long. Similarly this is why Ewing and Dirk didn't get enough recognition because people don't appreciate who they were going up against.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #58:

Dwyane Wade - 24
Stephen Curry - 23
Dirk Nowitzki - 10
Jerry West - 7
Tracy McGrady - 7
Patrick Ewing - 7
Kevin Durant - 5.5
Chris Paul - 4
Kobe Bryant - 3.5
Moses Malone - 3
Charles Barkley - 1

fwiw, counted a half-point for Kobe and Durant, as PaulieWal did not specify a 3rd ballot, but stated he was deciding between Kobe and Kevin for that slot.

Will leave this open for just a little while longer to see if anything changes, then will call a winner and move on.

[Clyde Frazier]

Thru post #58:

Dwyane Wade - 24
Stephen Curry - 23
Dirk Nowitzki - 10
Jerry West - 7
Tracy McGrady - 7
Patrick Ewing - 7
Kevin Durant - 5.5
Chris Paul - 4
Kobe Bryant - 3.5
Moses Malone - 3
Charles Barkley - 1

fwiw, counted a half-point for Kobe and Durant, as PaulieWal did not specify a 3rd ballot, but stated he was deciding between Kobe and Kevin for that slot.

Will leave this open for just a little while longer to see if anything changes, then will call a winner and move on.

Will get my ballot in shortly.