Peaks Project #17

[RebelWithACause]

Would love to know why Cp3 is considered better than Penny and Nash?
They are roughly on the same level to me.

[eminence]

Would love to know why Cp3 is considered better than Penny and Nash?
They are roughly on the same level to me.

Hmm, the Paul/Nash debate seems pretty close to me. I still have Paul ahead due to the better defense while I feel their offense was essentially equal. Biggest gaps both ways being Nash being the better shooter and Paul better at taking care of the ball.

Penny I don't think comes particularly close to either of the others as a playmaker, only around 10 assists per 100 compared to 15+. Without Penny having a large advantage in any other area that gap in itself is enough for me. Really I have to ask what does Penny do that makes him close to Nash/Paul for you?

[E-Balla]

here's my field right now:

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2. 66 Jerry West
3/4/5. 05 Nash/15 Curry/96 Penny (in order of who I'm leaning towards)

Wings:
1 03 T-Mac
2. 06 Kobe Bryant
3. 14 Kevin Durant
4. 61 Elgin Baylor
5. 97 Grant Hill

Bigs:
1/2/3. 11 Dirk/90 Pat/83 Moses (in order of who I'm leaning towards)
4. 90 Charles Barkley
5. 11 Dwight/98 Karl/00 Zo (again, in order)

My nominations will be:
1. 03 Tracy McGrady

He was a great at carrying a team and I have every reason to believe he could've fulfilled a lead role on a great team with his skill set. He was a great shooter, he was 2% over league average on 2s, shot 38% from 3 with only 50% assisted, he averaged 32/7/6, and he played great against the Pistons. Some people point out his performance once he played Tayshaun but they forget how good that team was. Without Tayshaun starting in the regular season they gave up a 100 ORTG. Tracy put up 26/8/5 on 46 TS with a 100 ORTG (due to his low turnovers) in the last two games. Not great but high volume average efficiency isn't too bad.

2. 11 Dirk Nowitzki

In the regular season he coasted a little but he followed that with a postseason for the ages. I can forgive a player that won way more than enough in the regular season to get it done in the postseason. I mean in the WC playoffs he averaged 28/8/3 on 64 TS (119 ORTG) including one of the best series I've ever seen vs OKC. His finals performance wasn't the greatest but it was decent. 26/10/2 on 54 TS with a middling ORTG (105) vs a defense like Miami is still something to be proud of.

3. 90 Patrick Ewing

Explained this one in the last thread. He might actually supplant Dirk and TMac as I feel I might be dropping him because of his narrative (5th in MVP voting after leading the race for a while and being right there with Chuck, Magic, and MJ). Patrick was a legit MVP candidate for most of the season and when he dropped out of the MVP race it had nothing at all to do with a lack of production (30/12/3 on 62 TS during the 11-20 slide after all of those trades). There's also my belief that people really underestimate his defense and the perception of him at the time. 86-91 Pat was a monster on defense even if he didn't lead great defensive teams yearly.

[bastillon]

Those piston teams' D were some of the best from that era. You are cherry picking certain stats from certain games from the series and it doesn't seem very fair. Using that pistons series as fuel against T-Mac is not jiving with me.

You're confusing 2003 Pistons with 2004 Pistons. They didn't become all-time great defense until Larry Brown was their coach and until they added Sheed to their roster. In 2003 Pistons were just a solid defensive team. I am not cherry-picking stats. I looked at games 5-7 specifically because that's when Tayshaun Prince was guarding McGrady.

Maybe I'll give you some context: TMac was destroying Michael Curry in the first few games, putting up 40+ games repeatedly. Curry was generally a horrendous defensive player (dude was just plain garbage overall and had no business playing in the NBA, think of him as as Smush Parker of swings). Pistons took a gamble and put Tayshaun Princeo on TMac in the 2nd half of G4. Until that point Magic were leading 3-1 and on their way to easy 4-1 win, with TMac feasting on bad defense. After Prince was put in, TMac was scoring at about 35% FG, Orlando got locked up offensively and were destroyed by the Pistons in games 5-7 with 20+ pt blowouts.

This is not cherry-picking. I took a reasonable criterion - I looked at TMac's performance vs quality playoff defense. It is a reasonable criterion because you want a player who is able to sustain high level of performance vs high level teams. Otherwise he's useless in terms of winning a title. TMac failed completely when Prince was guarding him. This is a trend throughout TMac's career because he has no playoff series where he would play well vs quality defense.

Also a note to theonlyclutch:
2003 Pistons defense may have been top-4 in the league even without Prince, but you have to consider the matchups. In the first few games TMac was guarded by Curry who is a terrible defensive player. This is why I am only willing to look at his performance vs. Tayshaun. Consider this: if TMac had been playing in the western conference and qualified for the playoffs, he would face Bruce Bowen (Spurs), Doug Christie (Kings), Bryant or George (Lakers) or Finley (Mavs). Admittedly he would feast on the Lakers because Kobe, George and Fox all had playoff injuries, and he would feast on Mavs because their defense was quite bad. But to win a title TMac would still have to go through Bowen and Christie. If TMac can't deliver against rookie Prince, and I don't see him dominating Bowen/Christie in a playoff series either.

so I don't care if TMac feasts on some weaklings. That is irrelevant in terms of winning a title. True title contenders wouldn't guard TMac with guys like that.

[bastillon]

Would love to know why Cp3 is considered better than Penny and Nash?
They are roughly on the same level to me.

I'd rank them:

1.Nash
2.Penny
3.CP

Nash is just on another level offensively. Basically, he didn't have a bad playoff series in his prime. Dominated top teams and delivered in big games. Can't say the same for CP. Penny also stepped up in the postseason but never reached the same ceiling. Penny's performances in 95-97 are really nowhere near what Nash was doing in 05-07. Penny didn't have a 30/12/6 playoff series, or 24/13 vs. Bruce Bowen etc. What Nash was doing was unprecedented and he was doing that while leading historically good playoff offenses. Of course both Penny and CP are better than Nash on defense but the gap on offense is pretty huge to me.

Honestly Nash is the best offensive player left and the only player who is even close is Kobe 08 imo (also led great offense while putting up huge individual performances vs high level competition).

[trex_8063]

Ballot 1: 03 Tmac

Ballot 2: 90 Ewing

Ballot 3: Undecided but i'm looking at Dirk KD or Kobe. Id like to hear a discussion on the 3. The way i see it, KD clearly had a better regular season than those 2 ever did, but how much do we weigh Kobe and Dirk's superior playoffs runs here? I think it needs some resolve.

My reasoning for Tmac and Ewing is the same as in the previous thread.

Oh and Jerry West too! I can see him on ballot 3.

Why TMac at #1? Isn't a concern for you that he got shutdown by Tayshaun Prince in the playoffs? Ever since Pistons put Prince on him, Magic were losing games by 20 pts with TMac shooting about 35-40% from the field? Isn't that a huge concern for a superstar guard that once he faces a good perimeter defender he gets dismantled?

just looking at those games vs. Prince (IIRC Prince was put on TMac in the 2nd half of G4):
G5: 19 pts, 8-20 FG, 98 ORtg, Orlando 67 pts
G6: 37 pts, 11-28 FG, 107 ORtg, Orlando 88 pts
G7: 21 pts, 7-24 FG, 93 ORtg, Orlando 93 pts

To me this is a worrying trend looking at the context of TMac's entire playoff career. We know that TMac averaged in his prime (01-08) 52% TS in the postseason. That is not a staggering result for a player whose main value comes from volume scoring. Of course TMac is not a one-trick pony, but still his scoring prowess was his biggest attribute. Frankly there is not one playoff series where TMac has high efficiency vs. quality playoff defense. We also know where this is coming from. TMac is a guy who usually shoots a lot of jumpshots. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. This is why consistency over the course of a playoff series was always an issue for TMac.

This is why I feel like TMac is being considered too early right now. He hasn't proven himself as a guy who can sustain high level of play vs quality opponents.

Isn't it a concern to you that you have a consistent trend of using hyperbole, mis-information, and broad macroscopic conclusions drawn from microscopic [and often cherry-picked] sample sizes?......

1) One implication of your post appears to be that McGrady was facing an entirely mediocre defense until Tayshaun Prince was on the court, which is utterly false.
The Pistons were the 5th-rated defense in the league that year. I know you love to brush such details aside and say it's all about the match-ups, but I'd respond with a few counter-points:
a) Pretty much anybody in the Pistons main line-up, if caught guarding McGrady on a switch is more capable than most (at their respective positions) in dealing with it (Ben Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Corliss Williamson, Cliff Robinson, Chauncey Billups).
b) This was a team predicated on defense, who were excellent at rotations, and (for obvious reasons) very very focused on McGrady.
c) To clean up any time McGrady found his way anywhere near the paint was DPoY Ben Wallace, who had more than a little ability to cover a lot of lateral ground and block/change shots. I was just re-watching part of G1 of that series and noted that the first two FGA McGrady takes were BOTH contested/changed by Wallace.
**You can say match-ups are MORE important than team defense, but certainly factors like the above are relevant.

2) Specifically where match-ups are concerned: when Prince wasn't on the court TMac was primarily being guarded by Michael Curry, a SF with a very good defensive reputation, and who had a better PI DRAPM than Prince that year, fwiw. Indeed, the only reason Michael Curry HAD a decent length NBA career at all was on account of his defense (because he was a terrible offensive player).
===>In short: Prince may have done better on McGrady than Curry did, but fact is McGrady was facing somewhere between "good" to elite level defense at all times in this series (both from match-up, and team defense perspectives), whether or not Prince was on the court.

3) Prince spent a little time guarding TMac in G2 (McGrady had 46 pts on 74.6% TS, though 7 tov and only 1 ast, 115 ORtg) and G3 (29 pts @ 59.4% TS, 5 ast, 1 tov, 124 ORtg). And Prince played just 15 minutes in G6, 24 minutes in G7. He didn't play at all in G4, btw (27 pts @ 51.0% TS, 9 ast, 3 tov, 109 ORtg for McGrady). G5 is the only game in the entire series he saw "starter" minutes.
While it's true McGrady had his two worst offensive performances in the games where Prince saw his biggest minutes, I'd still say this further muddies the waters a little as to this narrative that it was Prince, alone, who "shut TMac down".....given TMac had his BEST offensive game in the game where Prince saw his third-highest minutes (and I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I remember Prince primarily guarding McGrady when he was in), and given TMac had a middle-of-the-road offensive game in G4 when Prince didn't play at all.

4) Now that it's hopefully established (or at least suggested) that Prince wasn't solely responsible for game-to-game dips McGrady saw, AND that McGrady was indeed facing very good defense throughout the entire series.......
If going for 31.7/6.7/4.7 @ 56.1% TS with 3.7 tov with 110 ORtg (league avg was 103.6 that year, Piston's rs DRtg was 99.9; Piston's DRtg in that series was 87.6, so McGrady was >+22 to that) while taking the #1 seed to 7 games is "getting shut down".......well, let's just say I'll take it.


Regarding playoff shooting efficiency trends......
fwiw, I'd only consider McGrady's prime '01 to '07.
Anyway, in '01-'07, his rs TS% is 52.8%. His playoff TS% over that same span is 52.7%.
'01-'08 his rs TS% is 52.4%. His playoff TS% in that same span is 51.9%.

i.e. there's negligible drop-off.

If you want to make a broader commentary about McGrady's career in general (that he was a high-volume, meh-efficiency scorer), that's fine and valid......at least in other discussions. It doesn't so much apply HERE, where we're talking about a peak season (and he was 56.4% TS in the rs, 56.1% in the playoffs in '03).

I'd further suggest that there are other means of "offensive efficiency" than just shooting efficiency. For instance, turnovers.

A couple years ago I'd looked at 30 high(ish)-volume perimeter (with rare exception) scorers from recent or semi-recent history, and compared them via various measures of offensive efficiency: TS%, Pts/FGA, Pts/TO, and (Pts + Ast)/TO. The 30 players I looked at were: Tracy McGrady, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Reggie Miller, Dominique Wilkins, James Harden, Brandon Roy, Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, Carmelo Anthony, Isiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Derrick Rose, Joe Johnson, Bernard King, George Gervin, Larry Bird, Alex English, Clyde Drexler, Chauncey Billups, Gary Payton, Chris Mullin, Adrian Dantley, Mitch Richmond, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Just went with career rs numbers, fwiw....
In strictly shooting efficiency terms, yeah, McGrady didn't rate so high (27th of 30 in TS%, 28th of 30 in Pts/FGA)----although again: '03 is very much an outlier year for him wrt shooting efficiency, so this is misleading for purposes of this project. But then he was 7th of 30 in Pts/TO, and 5th of 30 in (Pts + Ast)/TO.

And this was a career trend that held true for him in '03. For instance, do a search for all seasons in which someone had >35% usage (with at least 40 games played and >27 mpg) and <10% TOV%. There are only 7 seasons on record, and '03 TMac is one of them (the one that is 2nd in WS, behind only '87 Michael Jordan).


Bear in mind I'm not throwing McGrady a ballot just yet. Still.....let's just be a little more honest about things.

[LA Bird]

Continuing from the previous thread on Ewing...

You're ignoring the context. Knicks had an injury spree in the spring. They were going for a 60W season with Ewing which shows how much higher his impact was since Barkley's Sixers were nowhere near that level.

Actually, it is Ewing's team which was nowhere near Barkley's level.

Knicks in 47 games with Ewing/Oak/Strickland was at 2.96 MOV.
Barkley's 76ers over the entire season was at 4.99 MOV.
Sixers in their best 47 game stretch was at 7.47 MOV.

The argument for Ewing over Barkley is very simple. While he's clearly worse on the offensive end, he still produces a lot on that end. Meanwhile, Ewing is a defensive monster. Today, he'd be by far the best defensive player in the league. At the same time, Barkley is a defensive liability. Plus, they are both bigs, where defense is more important than offense.

The simple argument you proposed also applies for Ewing vs Magic. And it's interesting how a player who would be by far the best defensive player in the league today while simultaneously producing a lot on the offensive end couldn't lift his team to anything better than an average offense and defense. Meanwhile in the same division, Barkley takes the 76ers with a similar level of supporting cast to the 2nd best offense behind Magic's Lakers with a defense only -0.4 worse than Ewing's Knicks. If Barkley was more impactful overall than Ewing, he should be ranked ahead in this peak project regardless of your personal preference for a big man in a team building context.


Regarding the posts you are quoting:

He was seen as a better center than Hakeem that year, made the all-NBA first over him and had coaches around the league saying he was the best center in the league.

The 1990 survey of NBA GMs, coaches and assistant coaches has the following results:
What starting five would you select? Robinson/Malone/Barkley/Jordan/Magic
If you could add any player in the league to your roster, who would it be? 1. Robinson 2. Magic 3. Jordan
OTOH, the All-NBA teams voted by the media has Ewing as the #1 center by a thin 344-326 margin.
It appears that Ewing was more beloved by the media while it is rookie Robinson who was more highly regarded by the coaches.

I'm going to guess a better moving version of the guy who was anchoring historic defenses a year and a half later was still pretty damn effective on defense. Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Estimating Ewing's defensive impact based on later years is not the point of this project. That would be those hypothetical super peak ideas where you get to combine a player at his offensive peak and defensive peak together to form a super player. By that same measure, we should evaluate 1967 Wilt based on his defense in 1972... and nobody does that for obvious reasons.

Why was he so much better offensively? As I've been mentioning, he had more variety in his offensive game, this was something everyone in the league was talking about. He went from being a predictable offensive player who was easy to game plan for, to being a lot more well rounded who mixed up and expanded his scoring repertoire. He was better at creating space on his shots, got that extra bit of separation he wasn't quite getting later as the years went on and a result he was having a lot of success as a one on one scorer in the post. He was at his physical peak in the NBA, insane stamina, a lot more athletic, moved better, had a bit more spring in his legs, which naturally allowed him to have a better conversion rate around the basket. His aggressiveness is completely different, he wasn't content to bail you out with fadeaways all game, he attacked the defense more often ever and consequently posted the best FTA numbers of his career (combined with a career best FT% which further raised his efficiency). His passing also took a big leap that year. While he wasn't Shaq or prime Hakeem, he was competent at reading doubles, this is another observation that is obvious to me from watching games and also reading/listening to what people around the league were saying.

Ewing's offense improved significantly since his college years... but there is still no evidence that he was actually a dominating offensive force. And if the sole argument for that is his ppg and TS%, I hope you will be voting for 2000 Mourning soon given that he is actually not too far off from Ewing as a scorer (-2.7 points per 100 poss on +1.1% rTS) and is a similarly dominant defender.

I have Ewing as the best peak center left but I can't justify putting him ahead of Barkley when the latter had a noticeable offensive impact throughout the entire season while elevating his team to a much higher level when the quality of rest of their teammates weren't that much different. And FWIW, here is a quote from Jordan after the MVP voting: "I seriously thought that Charles would win it because of what I believe the credentials were - to make your team better and improve the situation within a team. You look at what was expected of Philly and what they did and who was the main reason for that, and it all led to Charles Barkley."

[therealbig3]

Except:

Curry was considered a good defensive player, and RAPM bears that out. Also, T-Mac had 2 bad games and 1 good game when defended by Prince. The sample size you're using is very small. Furthermore, T-Mac's shooting didn't change whether he was defended by Prince or not in games 5-7, so it wasn't really Prince's defense, it was T-Mac not being able to sustain a ridiculous hot streak, which would have been unreasonable to expect.

Furthermore, T-Mac routinely destroyed Doug Christie. No reason to believe he would have had issues against him in the playoffs. He also played extremely well (and efficiently) against the 05 Mavs, who were a top 10 defense that year.

[Quotatious]

1. His inexperience was a huge issue for the Hornets in the playoffs. You could see the difference just comparing their G7 performances in 08 vs. Spurs and G7 this year. In 08 series, Pargo was their best PG in that game 7. This is how poorly Paul was playing. He wasn't injured or anything, just didn't show up and as a result had no impact whatsoever.

What the hell are you talking about? CP3 did an absolutely great job setting up his teammates all game long. 14 assists don't even tell the whole story, he easily could've approached 20 in that game. His teammates were just missing a lot of shots. He could've been more aggressive attacking the rim, but still, 8/18 from the field certainly isn't bad for a point guard, in terms of efficiency OR aggressiveness looking for his shot. He had a pretty good game overall, I vividly remember that.

Yeah, Pargo came up big in the 4th quarter, but without Paul's playmaking, they would've been down by a lot more than 15 points going into the 4th quarter, with no chance whatsoever for a comeback. They were down 4 with three minutes left, so they had a very real chance of winning that game, and you can argue that Paul should've tried to take over that game with his scoring, but instead, he created shots for his teammates who were just missing shots. We all know that Paul is really a "pure" point guard, so making plays for others is his primary job. With 1:35 left, CP3 grabbed an offensive rebound and dished out to Pargo for a 3, Hornets cut down the deficit to just 3 points, and then, Pargo unfortunately missed 4 of his last 5 shots. Hornets just tried to ride the hot hand (Pargo), and it didn't work in the last two minutes. When a guy gets hot, you give him the ball. Can't blame Paul for letting him do it.

I've never liked to focus on crunch time as more important than the first 3 quarters, because if you suck for the first 3, and step up in the 4th, it may not even matter, because the game may be out of reach at that point. That's why I don't really hold the fact that CP3 only attempted 4 shots in the fourth quarter (made two), against him. He did a hell of a job creating opportunities for his teammates for the entire game. I really can't see how you can say that Pargo was their best PG in that game. Sorry, but that's ridiculous. He was a non-factor for the first three quarters, only came up big in the 4th (which is great, but you know, the game lasts 48 minutes, not 12).

[Quotatious]

Except:

Curry was considered a good defensive player, and RAPM bears that out. Also, T-Mac had 2 bad games and 1 good game when defended by Prince. The sample size you're using is very small. Furthermore, T-Mac's shooting didn't change whether he was defended by Prince or not in games 5-7, so it wasn't really Prince's defense, it was T-Mac not being able to sustain a ridiculous hot streak, which would have been unreasonable to expect.

Furthermore, T-Mac routinely destroyed Doug Christie. No reason to believe he would have had issues against him in the playoffs. He also played extremely well (and efficiently) against the 05 Mavs, who were a top 10 defense that year.

Exactly. There's a lot of propaganda and inaccurate info from bastillon in this thread (I think he's a pretty good poster overall, but I totally can't agree with some of the things he said here).

Michael Curry stayed in the NBA for more than 10 years because he was a defensive specialist (mainly in terms of 1 on 1 defense on the perimeter). Besides, he averaged only 23 mpg in that series, McGrady averaged 44, so Curry could've guarded McGrady for only 52% of T-Mac's minutes. Who was guarding McGrady for the remaining minutes?

Also, why are we even focusing on the guy who guarded T-Mac? You can't guard a 32 point scorer on 56% TS 1 on 1. That's just impossible. Slowing McGrady down had to be a collective, team effort, and the Pistons were 4th in the league on defense, at just below 100 DRtg, they were anchored by one of the best defenders ever, right in the midst of his prime.

McGrady didn't really have a second option. Rookie Drew Gooden? Gordan Giricek? 35 year old Darrell Armstrong? Give me a break. It's just very tough to carry a team all by yourself, playing 39 mpg in the RS, and then consistently shoot well in the playoffs, against one of the best defensive teams in the league. But guess what? McGrady did that.

Ask yourself this question - how was it possible that Orlando forced Detroit to 7 games (I'd much rather look at it this way - they forced the Pistons to 7 games, not blew a 3-1 lead), if Detroit was a much better team on paper? Detroit won 50 games, with +2.97 SRS, Orlando won 42 with -0.39 SRS. There's no doubt that the Pistons were a better team, should've taken care of business in 5 or 6 games, at most, but the Magic were actually able to take them to 7, so they overachieved, and McGrady certainly gets the lion's share of credit. Overall, he had a great series. 32/7/5/2 stl. on 56% TS against the 4th best defense in the league is fantastic. That's about the same as he averaged in the RS, but the difference is - he averaged 32.0 ppg on 56.7% TS in the regular season against weaker competition (on average) than the 31.7 ppg on 56.1% TS he averaged against the #4 ranked defense in the playoffs.

The amount of defensive pressure McGrady faced in that series was insane. He was sometimes playing 1 on 5, and his performance in that series was only a little below his RS standards (but those RS standards were incredibly high, and a small decline was to be expected, totally, because he faced a much better defense than usual, in the playoffs).

[Quotatious]

here's my field right now:

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2. 66 Jerry West
3/4/5. 05 Nash/15 Curry/96 Penny (in order of who I'm leaning towards)

Wings:
1 03 T-Mac
2. 06 Kobe Bryant
3. 14 Kevin Durant
4. 61 Elgin Baylor
5. 97 Grant Hill

Bigs:
1/2/3. 11 Dirk/90 Pat/83 Moses (in order of who I'm leaning towards)
4. 90 Charles Barkley
5. 11 Dwight/98 Karl/00 Zo (again, in order)

My nominations will be:
1. 03 Tracy McGrady

He was a great at carrying a team and I have every reason to believe he could've fulfilled a lead role on a great team with his skill set. He was a great shooter, he was 2% over league average on 2s, shot 38% from 3 with only 50% assisted, he averaged 32/7/6, and he played great against the Pistons. Some people point out his performance once he played Tayshaun but they forget how good that team was. Without Tayshaun starting in the regular season they gave up a 100 ORTG. Tracy put up 26/8/5 on 46 TS with a 100 ORTG (due to his low turnovers) in the last two games. Not great but high volume average efficiency isn't too bad.

Why Hill over Harden, Pippen or Drexler? Grant was arguably better than Scottie and Clyde in the RS, but he proved nothing in the playoffs, compared to them.

[drza]

As of now I think I'm going Dirk 11, Ewing 90 and either Kobe 08 or TMac 03 here. But I'm still reading. The Ewing/Barkley rebuttal thoughts are interesting. West could sneak into the mix. Barkley and the Malones are on the horizon for bigs. And at some point the point guards (Nash, Paul, Curry) come into it as well.

But for now I'm thinking Dirk, Ewing and Kobe/TMac.

[roriobane]

.

[theonlyclutch]

Excellent overall efficiency (58% TS/115 ORTG), great at drawing fouls ( .439 FT rate), got to the rim (25% of shots were from 0-3 feet) and was a very good finisher (64% from 0-3 feet, 54%! from 3-10 feet). Really good shooter (85% from the line, 36% from on 5 attempts a game, 44% from 10-16 feet,) more than capable off-ball (big part of why he and pau had such great chemistry from literally their first game together and why he was still putting up huge numbers on the best passing team in the game). He was the best passing SG in basketball outside of Manu, the best play-making non-point outside of LBJ, a terrific rebouding guard, and a good defender (#5 in dpoy voting, 1st team all-defense, positive raw +/- and adjusted +/- numbers, and the lakers were elite defensively despite a load of injuries). It's funny. People lose their minds if I suggest 08 Kobe was anything elite defensively yet somebody like 09 Wade continues to enjoy a rep for being elite on that end despite the fact the he and 08 Bryant have similar impact numbers defensively (I don't think either were anything more than good/very good) - IMO he still easily the best scorer in the game. And he was a great athlete back then as well. He should be in the top 20. How does he make the top 15 the last time this was done and finish outside the top 20 now? Do people really think a guy who was widely regarded as a top 10-12 player of all-time at age 30 doesn't even have a top 20 peak ever?

Bryant's claim to fame is his longevity of playing at an elite/high level, not peak accomplishment, so that's not hard to believe..I personally don't have him above Harden and he's not coming for some time yet...

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Jerry West 1966
2nd ballot - Moses Malone 1983
3rd ballot - Patrick Ewing 1990
About West:

I like that people want to discuss about Wade vs West. I'm a big West supporter, but it's such a close comparison. Why I have West over Wade?
First of all, West was better shooter. Yes, we don't have numbers to confirm this, but there are a few of his game available as well as some highlights. Just look at this video:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEzwR1a8KuA&list=PLk0ojkrQDIQ6G7V9qURSy4YRm_Y6sglQI&index=6[/youtube]
He showed some jumper and his pull-up is unguardable. I think he was clearly better shooter than Wade (not a knock on Wade, he is underrated midrange shooter in my opinion). On the other hand, Wade has advantage on his slashing ability. I think only Jordan is close to Wade in that aspect (at SG spot at least). Jerry was very good slasher and had great speed and quickness, but Wade is in conversation for GOAT athlete as a guard. Overall, they are close as a scorers (Wade might have edge in RS, but in playoffs West was unreal).
Playmaking is an overrated part of their game. I think that while they are both elite playmakers as SGs, they have never been close to great PG in that aspect. If I choose 2009 Wade, he might have an edge. If not, they are even (or small edge to West).
And key factor in my opinion - DEFENSE. Wade was very good defender at his peak, but slightly overrated in my opinion. West is praised by everybody played with or against him. I think only Frazier had as quick hands as him. He was just as good shotblocker as Wade (just look at his last seasons) and he looks like better man defender, but I'm not sure.
Overall I think they are so close that West's advantages are more important than Wade's.

About my 3rd choice:

Is there any reason for 90 Ewing being ahead of 90 Barkley? Barkley appears to be better statistically both individually and in terms of team impact (+5.4 O vs -0.1 D). In the Retro POY project from a few years ago, Barkley was unanimously ranked ahead of Ewing at #3. Comparing the players with the highest VORP from both teams, it appears that Barkley was impacting the game more with a similar level of supporting cast.

Code: Select all

1990 Knicks     1990 76ers
5.2 Ewing       9.2 Barkley
2.1 Oakley      2.9 Hawkins
1.4 Wilkins     1.7 Dawkins
1.0 Jackson     1.4 Mahorn
0.7 Newman      0.9 Gminski
0.7 Tucker      0.2 Anderson

You're ignoring the context. Knicks had an injury spree in the spring. They were going for a 60W season with Ewing which shows how much higher his impact was since Barkley's Sixers were nowhere near that level. The argument for Ewing over Barkley is very simple. While he's clearly worse on the offensive end, he still produces a lot on that end. Meanwhile, Ewing is a defensive monster. Today, he'd be by far the best defensive player in the league. At the same time, Barkley is a defensive liability. Plus, they are both bigs, where defense is more important than offense.

Here are some excellent posts:

People are questioning this guy's defense?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hylBSIMbeZg[/youtube]

Come on...this is '92-'94 Ewing but with way better knees. I mean every game I've seen of his from this season, it's the type of combo of scoring variety, defense and athleticism, Knicks fans always wished he had. He was seen as a better center than Hakeem that year, made the all-NBA first over him and had coaches around the league saying he was the best center in the league.

Parish said that Ewing "is a better player today because he has variety of shots, just doesn't throw the fadeaway jumpshot, he gives you the jump hook and his spin move on the baseline is the toughest thing for me to guard" (so this isn't exactly the fadeaway jumpers all game long offensive version of Ewing we remember most). From what I've read guys say about him, he took a big leap in his post game that season but declined as the 90s went on because his knees got worse and worse (and of course he aged, he was in his 30s during '92-'94...and consequently shot jumpers wayyyyyy more often), and as a result so did his efficiency. Even in something like FT shooting, it's way above his career average and his best year ever. He is doing a lot of heavy lifting offensively...must be turning the ball over a lot like he always did, but nope, while putting up the scoring numbers he did, he also posted the third best TOV% of his career. It's not like Ewing is inexperienced here either, he is 27-28 which is usually when players peak so career trajectory wise, it makes sense.

Knicks were still above average defensively considering the following things: a rookie head coach (Stu Jackson, fired 15 games into next season...and only coached one other team after that, the 6-33 Grizzlies), the second best defender on the team missing 21 games, a bad defensive backcourt particularly when Kiki joins the team. I would say he's making pretty good impact here (and we know he can probably make a lot more if he is on a championship caliber team where he doesn't have to score as much). This is one of the great interior defenders of all time, he didn't learn defense when he was 30 years old just like KG didn't magically learn to play defense when he joined the Celtics. His comparison was Bill Russell coming out of college, he was seen as one of the finest defensive talents ever. The questions weren't "can he defend?" but "can he add enough to his post game?" (and he did in 1990). In terms of interior defense, he's ones of the best ever, anything you threw around the basket was going to get challenged, no easy baskets even it meant you put him on a poster. He's second in the league in blocks behind Hakeem, I know averages aren't everything but this isn't Javale McGee we are talking about, but a fundamentally sound defensive player, who plays great post defense and whose block averages reflect his ability to absolutely lock down the paint. I'm going to guess a better moving version of the guy who was anchoring historic defenses a year and a half later was still pretty damn effective on defense. Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Regarding the Ewing Theory. It refers to the mid/late 90s version of Ewing (in his mid 30s) who is 5+ years away from the year in question here and a CLEAR step down offensively. Even if it were true, it's not very relevant. It's like using Kobe's impact last couple of years to define his impact in '08.

One thing I kind of wish there was more of an argument for was D-Rob (who I think went a few spots too high) vs. Ewing. Would people really take '95 D-Rob in a playoff series over '90 Ewing? Has D-Rob ever taken over offensively for his teams in the playoffs like that? Could D-Rob give the bad boy Pistons defense 45 point game and then come back and drop 30 points in the second half of the next game? And don't forget the intangibles, Ewing was intimidating on the court, a better leader, a guy who has an impact over the entire mentality of the team. I think a great argument I read for D-Rob was that he'd be a great second banana offensively on a championship team but would still be the best overall player on the team...could the same thing not be said about '90 Ewing?

Some context around the 1990 Knicks: The Knicks started out 34-17 before making the Strickland trade. Then finished the season 11-20 for a combination of reasons. I wish I had game 3 of the Celtics series on my computer because Peter Vecsey does a decent job in a halftime segment of showing all the chemistry issues the Knicks had in the last couple of months of the season (these issues were why Knicks were given no chance to beat the Celtics). From making the Strickland trade, to Mark Jackson getting booed on the court and benched for 33 year old Cheeks, to Oakley fracturing his left hand and missing games, to Kiki V coming back and joining the team. These are a LOT of lineup changes for a team to endure mid-season, Knicks had a different starting PG, a different starting PF, a different starting SF (all of whom were defensive downgrades) in the last month of the season than they did when they were winning and putting up one of the best records in the league. I don't think it's a coincidence how the team performance changed so much just as the Knicks began encountering instability in their lineup. Unfortunately this stretch thwarted Ewing's MVP campaign as well (he was in the convo with Magic, Barkley, MJ for it). That was a 50+ win team disguised by the issues at the end of the season, so I would say Ewing was doing a great job of getting the best out of what he was given.

Some posts here seem to be have no sense of context surrounding his season, no analysis of his game (probably haven't bothered to watch any games), just going off a very very superficial analysis of "let me check PER and team defensive rating" and draw conclusions. This type of analysis is only going to produce outrageous statements such as "90 Malone was better than Ewing" or that Ewing "wasn't even on par with Dwight".

This is a peak project, I have a feeling people are letting their bias from mid/late 90s Ewing (who I have issues with offensively too) cloud their judgement on how good he was this year. I had a similar bias, but then I began watching his games from that season (about 15 or so) and what I'm seeing a dominant defender (his defensive versatility is better here than later in the 90s, my one gripe defensively would be that he was more prone to foul trouble this season than he would be later) with an offensive package like we've never seen Ewing put together at any other point of his career.

Why was he so much better offensively? As I've been mentioning, he had more variety in his offensive game, this was something everyone in the league was talking about. He went from being a predictable offensive player who was easy to game plan for, to being a lot more well rounded who mixed up and expanded his scoring repertoire. He was better at creating space on his shots, got that extra bit of separation he wasn't quite getting later as the years went on and a result he was having a lot of success as a one on one scorer in the post. He was at his physical peak in the NBA, insane stamina, a lot more athletic, moved better, had a bit more spring in his legs, which naturally allowed him to have a better conversion rate around the basket. His aggressiveness is completely different, he wasn't content to bail you out with fadeaways all game, he attacked the defense more often ever and consequently posted the best FTA numbers of his career (combined with a career best FT% which further raised his efficiency). His passing also took a big leap that year. While he wasn't Shaq or prime Hakeem, he was competent at reading doubles, this is another observation that is obvious to me from watching games and also reading/listening to what people around the league were saying.

This isn't a guy who saw an increase in his averages because he just upped his numbers and feasted on bad defenses either (like say D-Rob in '94), he was lighting up everyone. Here he is putting up 41/15 on Eaton: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O45_E9hkgLk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Here is the game where he put up 45/16 against the best defensive team in the league: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoPOSrHEgHk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. His offensive numbers against good defensive teams/centers were very good over the course of the entire season.

Here's an article midway through the season (when Knicks were 25-10) talking about Ewing's amazing improvement on offense and how surprised everyone was by how much he improved:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1123089/1/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some things which stand out:

"But what the NBA is seeing these days, and is likely to be seeing through a good bit of the next decade, is much, much more. Some of the old images of Ewing are dated. He has buried them under an avalanche of soft, turnaround jump shots. "The book on him always was, Make him shoot over you, make him earn it," says Boston's backup center, Joe Kleine. "Well, now he's earning it." The power, the intimidation, the fearlessness are still there, but so are grace and finesse and economy of movement, terms previously associated with Houston's Akeem Olajuwon, Ewing's yardstick through most of the '80s, and San Antonio rookie David Robinson, the only other NBA center currently mentioned in the same breath with Ewing and Olajuwon."

Ewing's play has been an even more important component of New York's success. "He might be the best in the game right now," Los Angeles's Mychal Thompson told the New York Daily News after Ewing scored 29 points in a 115-104 loss on Dec. 3. "He and Magic [Johnson] are shoulder to shoulder."

"I know what people are saying now," says Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, "but when he came out of college, I don't recall anybody thinking he would score like this."

"I worked on some things this summer, just like I always do. I wanted to get better on coming into the lane with my left hand, and I've done that. I'm getting to the foul line more [his eight attempts per game are about two more than last season], and that's helped my scoring. But I haven't changed my jump shot. It just got better.

Ewing gradually improved under Pitino, but only recently has the whole package been unwrapped. It reveals an agile seven-footer whose turnaround jumper is accurate up to 20 feet; a heady player who discourages double-teaming with canny passes; an outstanding athlete who has somehow figured out the exotic fast-break passing strategies of point guards Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland, both of whom never make a simple move when 13 complicated ones will do; and a defensive intimidator whose 3.7 blocks per game at week's end were second only to Olajuwon's league-leading 4.2.

''He has taken his game to another level,'' Johnson continued, ''a level I've never seen him play at before. He's dominating offensively and defensively, but he's also making the right plays at the right time. He's leading his team, as opposed to before, when it seemed he'd just as soon let somebody else lead. That's the real mark of an MVP.''

This post did me think higer about peak Ewing than before, but I think Moses is still slightly ahead. Moses was just more rare offensive player. I don't think that their close offensive boxscores show real difference between them. I know that Ewing is better defender, but this particually season he didn't have the same defensive impact he had in 1992-1994. It's probably because of worse team, but I still don't think Ewing is in the same category with Admiral, Olaujwon or Mutombo defensively. Moses had very good defensive season himself, so he is slightly ahead.

This is getting closer and closer. After them I will vote for Dirk, Barkley, Durant, maybe Bryant and TMac... Interesting project, really

[bastillon]

I don't know where you're getting this "information". Just watch the damn series. I've seen it, Curry was a terrible defender. And yes, Prince was the reason TMac's shooting dropped so dramatically. If you watch the series, casters talk about it all the time. There are highlights and all you want proving that to be true. Really no reason for me to argue anything more on this point, with all due respect but all of you are just plain wrong in that regard. Some of your "information" is completely counter-factual. During the series there are stats with McGrady vs. Prince and vs. everybody else. Let's just say that he wasn't the same player facing Prince. You really need to watch more games to know what I'm talking about.

Similarly, you can't look at the boxscore to know the context behind G7 Spurs-Hornets from 2008. Paul was absolutely terrible for his standards. You could easily see his inexperience affecting him.

[Narigo]

1. 2014 Kevin Durant
Great volume scorer who great at driving to basket and shoot from anywhere on the floor. He improved his ballhanding and playmaking skills in 2013. With Westbrook missing some time in 2014, Durant can be effective playing the point forward role. He led the Thunder to a winning record without Westbrook who missed half the season.

2. 1966 Jerry West
One of the best scorers and shooter the league ever.

3. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki
In my opinion, 2006 Dirk Nowitzki is his best overall season. He led the Mavs to their first ever finals apperence. He is a excellent scorer who can shoot from distance. His ability to drive to the basket is often overlooked in terms of his scoring abilty.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Well, unless someone can convince me otherwise, I'm going to stick with my same top two picks from last thread (mostly, but not entirely, same arguments). 3rd pick is new....

1st ballot: Kevin Durant '14
I freely acknowledge the Durant is a completely average defender overall. But: very good to elite as both a rebounder and playmaker for a SF. And then GOAT-level pure scorer: 41.8 pts/100 possessions @ 63.5% TS . fwiw, I'd also constructed formula founded on Moonbeam's Score+ rating (I called mine "Modified Score+").......'14 Durant is the 2nd-highest MS+ rating on record (just barely behind '88 Barkley, and just barely ahead of '83 Dantley).
He couldn't quite maintain that in the playoffs, but still......35.9 pts/100 poss @ 57.0% TS while playing 42.9 mpg; that's still very elite level scoring, and---collectively with the rs numbers---has him in contention for greatest ever pure scoring season. And bear in mind the defense he was facing in the '14 playoffs:
1st round: -2.1 rDRTG (ranked 7th of 30; being guarded primarily by Tony Allen, who I think is arguably the greatest perimeter man-defender of this generation)
2nd round: -1.9 rDRTG (9th of 30)
3rd round: -4.3 rDRTG (3rd of 30; being guarded by Kawhi Leonard)

fwiw, where portability is concerned, although obviously it's very speculative, I suspect Durant's is reasonably high, as he's primarily an off-ball player (takes less of the table), and---at least in the modern setting---provides a ton of floor spacing, which is quite important. I mean, his defender literally has to be glued to him even 25-26 ft from the hoop, and is basically taken out of help defense entirely.


2nd ballot: Dirk Nowitzki '06
Helluv' an offensive anchor, who also must be listed as one of the greatest pure scorers, especially when factoring his ability to hold steady or even scale up in the playoffs. He didn't dwindle in the post-season in '06 while bringing his team to the brink; and I'll be honest, the '06 Finals almost has a small asterisk by it in my mind, as there was some fishy-seeming officiating going on in that one.

Why '06 over '11? I know his post game isn't as refined as in '11, and hasn't figured out how to deal with double-teams quite as well as in '11 either.....but I kinda like the better motor and mobility he had on him in his younger years, like that fact that he could carry the load and have a big impact for 38 mpg (instead of 34) while missing only a single game all year, too. Significantly better rebounder in '06 than he was in '11. And it was my impression of both eras of his career that he was a better defender in '06 (again maybe the better motility and lateral quickness, etc), though I'll admit the impact data does not reflect this opinion.


3rd ballot: Stephen Curry '15
Can't decide yet, though I'll say it's primarily between Steph Curry, Tracy McGrady, Chris Paul, and Charles Barkley for me (West, both Malones are in the immediately vicinity, too). Tough decision, I'll take a stand with somebody before closing time.

EDIT: Going with Curry. Reasoning provided in post #28 itt.

I wouldnt really say that he had completely average defense.

He is exceptional as an isolation defender. ( I only have data up to 2/3rds into that season though)

He gave up 0.52 points per possession, good for 4th in the league, including the players who only face those possessions once or twice, meaning that he was probably the best isolation defender in the league at that point.

For comparison, He completely blows Davis, Allen, Iggy, etc out of the water.

And he is also better than people like Draymond and Paul.

He was great at defending the P and R ball handler. gave up 0.52ppp again. that ranks better than
Kawhi, Allen, Draymond, etc.

He was reasonably good at defending the post up. ranked better than Draymond and Davis (0.73 ppp)

was solid at defending the spot up as well.

the only play that he really faced regularly and had trouble defending was off-screen plays.

of the 7 "defendable" plays, he was very good at 2 of them, beyond exceptional at 2 others, and below average at 3 of them. However, the 3 plays that he wasnt good at defending, he was faced with less than 20% of the time.

so in 80% of the plays he "faced" he was solid to exceptional.

Im using a different website for these next stats, since the site I used for the stats above (other than Lebrons ppp stats) came up wierdly for some stats. the ppp for the top of the stats seemed correct though. had a strong correlation with this year, and the site I will use now.

In his seasons, lebron gave up

2010 overall = 0.840 PPP

2011 overall = 0.770 PPP

2012 overall = 0.820 PPP

2013 overall = 0.840 PPP

2014 overall = 0.870 PPP

in those seasons. (0.787 in his legendary 09 season)

in 2014, Durant gave up roughly 0.78ppp (probably rounded down since it was a biased post)

Obviously not the best way to show defense, but I wouldnt call Durant average on defense

He isnt a better defender than lebron obviously, but I feel this is enough to say he was above average.

[urnoggin]

1st ballot: Stephen Curry 2015
2nd ballot: Kobe Bryant 2008
3rd ballot: Dirk Nowitzki 2011

Voted for Dirk because after watching some games from that year (G1, G4 vs Thunder, G2 vs Heat) it's evident to me that his offensive efficiency and impact was legendary and outweighs the volume scoring abilities of Durant and McGrady. His playoff run was spectacular and he led a mediocre cast over the Heat. Had an absolutely amazing series vs the Thunder (32 ppg on 70 TS%) combining volume and efficiency at a level that has never been seen before.

[ceiling raiser]

Well, unless someone can convince me otherwise, I'm going to stick with my same top two picks from last thread (mostly, but not entirely, same arguments). 3rd pick is new....

1st ballot: Kevin Durant '14
I freely acknowledge the Durant is a completely average defender overall. But: very good to elite as both a rebounder and playmaker for a SF. And then GOAT-level pure scorer: 41.8 pts/100 possessions @ 63.5% TS . fwiw, I'd also constructed formula founded on Moonbeam's Score+ rating (I called mine "Modified Score+").......'14 Durant is the 2nd-highest MS+ rating on record (just barely behind '88 Barkley, and just barely ahead of '83 Dantley).
He couldn't quite maintain that in the playoffs, but still......35.9 pts/100 poss @ 57.0% TS while playing 42.9 mpg; that's still very elite level scoring, and---collectively with the rs numbers---has him in contention for greatest ever pure scoring season. And bear in mind the defense he was facing in the '14 playoffs:
1st round: -2.1 rDRTG (ranked 7th of 30; being guarded primarily by Tony Allen, who I think is arguably the greatest perimeter man-defender of this generation)
2nd round: -1.9 rDRTG (9th of 30)
3rd round: -4.3 rDRTG (3rd of 30; being guarded by Kawhi Leonard)

fwiw, where portability is concerned, although obviously it's very speculative, I suspect Durant's is reasonably high, as he's primarily an off-ball player (takes less of the table), and---at least in the modern setting---provides a ton of floor spacing, which is quite important. I mean, his defender literally has to be glued to him even 25-26 ft from the hoop, and is basically taken out of help defense entirely.


2nd ballot: Dirk Nowitzki '06
Helluv' an offensive anchor, who also must be listed as one of the greatest pure scorers, especially when factoring his ability to hold steady or even scale up in the playoffs. He didn't dwindle in the post-season in '06 while bringing his team to the brink; and I'll be honest, the '06 Finals almost has a small asterisk by it in my mind, as there was some fishy-seeming officiating going on in that one.

Why '06 over '11? I know his post game isn't as refined as in '11, and hasn't figured out how to deal with double-teams quite as well as in '11 either.....but I kinda like the better motor and mobility he had on him in his younger years, like that fact that he could carry the load and have a big impact for 38 mpg (instead of 34) while missing only a single game all year, too. Significantly better rebounder in '06 than he was in '11. And it was my impression of both eras of his career that he was a better defender in '06 (again maybe the better motility and lateral quickness, etc), though I'll admit the impact data does not reflect this opinion.


3rd ballot: Stephen Curry '15
Can't decide yet, though I'll say it's primarily between Steph Curry, Tracy McGrady, Chris Paul, and Charles Barkley for me (West, both Malones are in the immediately vicinity, too). Tough decision, I'll take a stand with somebody before closing time.

EDIT: Going with Curry. Reasoning provided in post #28 itt.

I wouldnt really say that he had completely average defense.

He is exceptional as an isolation defender. ( I only have data up to 2/3rds into that season though)

He gave up 0.52 points per possession, good for 4th in the league, including the players who only face those possessions once or twice, meaning that he was probably the best isolation defender in the league at that point.

For comparison, He completely blows Davis, Allen, Iggy, etc out of the water.

And he is also better than people like Draymond and Paul.

He was great at defending the P and R ball handler. gave up 0.52ppp again. that ranks better than
Kawhi, Allen, Draymond, etc.

He was reasonably good at defending the post up. ranked better than Draymond and Davis (0.73 ppp)

was solid at defending the spot up as well.

the only play that he really faced regularly and had trouble defending was off-screen plays.

of the 7 "defendable" plays, he was very good at 2 of them, beyond exceptional at 2 others, and below average at 3 of them. However, the 3 plays that he wasnt good at defending, he was faced with less than 20% of the time.

so in 80% of the plays he "faced" he was solid to exceptional.

Im using a different website for these next stats, since the site I used for the stats above (other than Lebrons ppp stats) came up wierdly for some stats. the ppp for the top of the stats seemed correct though. had a strong correlation with this year, and the site I will use now.

In his seasons, lebron gave up

2010 overall = 0.840 PPP

2011 overall = 0.770 PPP

2012 overall = 0.820 PPP

2013 overall = 0.840 PPP

2014 overall = 0.870 PPP

in those seasons. (0.787 in his legendary 09 season)

in 2014, Durant gave up roughly 0.78ppp (probably rounded down since it was a biased post)

Obviously not the best way to show defense, but I wouldnt call Durant average on defense

He isnt a better defender than lebron obviously, but I feel this is enough to say he was above average.

If you don't mind sharing, what's your source for the older Synergy data? Mysynergysports.com closed up last year, so it's hard to find.