Peaks Project #26

[Quotatious]

Why Howard over Mourning?

I think Howard's edge in terms of rebounding is just too big, and he played better in the postseason.

[RebelWithACause]

Why Howard over Mourning?

I think Howard's edge in terms of rebounding is just too big, and he played better in the postseason.

Very true, but I think that Mourning could have been the better defender, which makes this really close.

Add in the fact that Mourning is more portable, because he is not a clown who refuses to play the PnR or doesn't go 100%.

Should make for a good discussion.

[Lost92Bricks]

So Paul is below average man defender because he can't stop Westbrook and Curry?
I know, he's not all time great defender. He's not Frazier or Payton, or even Van Lier or Cheeks. So what? He's still very good defensive player. Elite when he tries (like Kobe).

Based on what playoff series?

How about the time when he forced key turnovers on Durant in game 4 of '14 WCSF?

And the series before against the Warriors where he played very good defense on Curry and forced him into a bunch of turnovers.

[bastillon]

so Chris Paul's playoff impact is justified based on a couple plays in one game. That shows just desperation in trying to prove an agenda. In reality, Chris Paul is getting torched every year in the playoffs by any decent PG. He's a poor playoff defender. That's to be expected though since he is usually injured in the playoffs. Groin injury seems to be bothering him every year.

[trex_8063]

where did you get his rapm numbers? I mean, his PI rapm will be much lower than it should be because I think his rapm from 2014 was far from good (somewhat like durants rapm case).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17dNdxpgNHvOnMwnTmw65x5exfmQaA0C6T1w7KTmCiC0/edit?pli=1#gid=0

Courtesy of E-Balla. I'm not 100% sure of the source (he seemed to think was from engelman), and will feel more comfortable about it once I see it more "officially" posted someplace like GotBuckets? or similar.


Fair points (to you, Owly, and mischievous) regarding PI formulas dragging down '15 Davis. Although fwiw, there still appears to be a little disconnect between the npi you've put forth and Davis's box/advanced metrics.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Why Howard over Mourning?

I think Howard's edge in terms of rebounding is just too big, and he played better in the postseason.

Very true, but I think that Mourning could have been the better defender, which makes this really close.

Add in the fact that Mourning is more portable, because he is not a clown who refuses to play the PnR or doesn't go 100%.

Should make for a good discussion.

this is a peak project though, so that last point doesent really count.

[MyUniBroDavis]

where did you get his rapm numbers? I mean, his PI rapm will be much lower than it should be because I think his rapm from 2014 was far from good (somewhat like durants rapm case).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17dNdxpgNHvOnMwnTmw65x5exfmQaA0C6T1w7KTmCiC0/edit?pli=1#gid=0

Courtesy of E-Balla. I'm not 100% sure of the source (he seemed to think was from engelman), and will feel more comfortable about it once I see it more "officially" posted someplace like GotBuckets? or similar.


Fair points (to you, Owly, and mischievous) regarding PI formulas dragging down '15 Davis. Although fwiw, there still appears to be a little disconnect between the npi you've put forth and Davis's box/advanced metrics.

there were multiple samples for rapm, and npi rapm still has alot of noise. also, the team went on a run without him, (against bottom feeder teams) which probably effected his rapm quite a bit.

I feel like the impact metrics wont do justice to Davis's actual impact. I mean, I know RAPM is a very, very valuable statistic, but i feel that when we only have npi rapm to go off of, it can only give a really broad ballpark estimate, you know what I mean?

also, in terms of fit, since I feel rapm is more of talent, role, and fit combined, Davis is not utilized right, at all. ill go more in depth if there is a howard vs davis vs Mouring discusion.

as for the data, yes, i think that was from engelman's request thread. certainly looks familiar.

just wondering, where do you rank davis on your list?

[ceiling raiser]

where did you get his rapm numbers? I mean, his PI rapm will be much lower than it should be because I think his rapm from 2014 was far from good (somewhat like durants rapm case).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17dNdxpgNHvOnMwnTmw65x5exfmQaA0C6T1w7KTmCiC0/edit?pli=1#gid=0

Courtesy of E-Balla. I'm not 100% sure of the source (he seemed to think was from engelman), and will feel more comfortable about it once I see it more "officially" posted someplace like GotBuckets? or similar.


Fair points (to you, Owly, and mischievous) regarding PI formulas dragging down '15 Davis. Although fwiw, there still appears to be a little disconnect between the npi you've put forth and Davis's box/advanced metrics.

In theory, that link should be the same as the one from Dropbox, but maybe J.E. used a different methodology.

i asked him for NPI and PI after the playoffs ended (he now does multi-year instead, which he noted gives similar results, though they are different processes), and the link in your post was provided.

Later on, he created an RAPM request thread, and provided NPI and multi-year for each season (these are the ones linked on dropbox).

[Dr Positivity]

I thought CP guarded Curry pretty decently in 2014. Overall he plays at a position where standing out in man to man D is almost impossible. The good defensive PGs make more subtle impact on help D

[trex_8063]

so Chris Paul's playoff impact is justified based on a couple plays in one game.

You've never had much issue with puny sample size in prior arguments (e.g. video of cherry-picked plays vs. Westbrook (all from the same game??? can't remember); prior arguments regarding TMac or others, generally revolving around a mere couple games, etc), but whatever, I'll play ball.....

Chris Paul '15 rs defensive on/off: 105.2 DRtg when he's on the court, 106.4 DRtg when he's off the court (-1.2).
'15 Paul playoff defensive on/of: 106.4 DRtg when he's on the court, 109.0 DRtg when he's off the court (-2.6).
'15 Paul PI DRAPM: +1.79
'15 Paul NPI DRAPM: +0.62

Going to cite his '14 numbers too (relevance suggested: maybe not too significantly different in '15 than '14 in this regard???):
'14 Paul rs defensive on/off: -4.3
'14 Paul playoff defensive on/off: -5.7
'14 Paul PI DRAPM: +1.73

**RAPM considers playoffs, too, btw; generally weighted heavier, actually, unless I'm mistaken. And >+1.5 is quite sizable defensive impact for a PG (as you yourself noted, PG's aren't able to exert as much defensive impact as bigs).***

Accolade based evidence:
All-Defensive honors the last five years running (1st team the last four).

Match-up based evidence (playoffs only version, just for you):
'14 Steph Curry in rs: 24.0 ppg/8.5 apg/3.8 topg @ 61.0% TS
'14 Steph Curry in series against Paul: 23.0 ppg/8.4 apg/3.7 tov @ 59.9% TS
The partial game against Durant (whose numbers were down a little overall in this series, though yes: Westbrook's were up)
'15 Tony Parker in rs: 14.4 ppg/4.9 apg/2.1 topg @ 53.9% TS
'15 Tony Parker in series against Paul: 10.9 ppg/3.6 apg/1.6 topg @ 38.6% TS
Jason Terry's (Paul's primary charge in WCSF) per 36 numbers were basically even (to marginally worse) in series vs. his rs per 36.
Paul spent a little time guarding Harden.....Harden in series: 25.4 ppg/8.1 apg/5.0 topg @ 59.3% TS vs. 27.4 ppg/7.0 apg/4.0 topg @ 60.5% in rs.


I would never try to imply that Paul is a "never-fail" defender. But I do try to look at the balance evidence available (combined with my eye-test, which indicates to me he's above average----sporadically elite when he's "really trying").....and the majority (vast majority) of evidence appears to suggest he's at least a "pretty good" defender (in both rs and playoffs).
So I wouldn't quite say other posters are "desperate" to find evidence of good defense.....there's actually an ample supply (although you continually attempt to disregard chunks of it for a variety of arbitrary reasons).

Just for future reference (so we don't repeatedly waste our time): which of the above pieces of evidence are invalid in your opinion? I'm guessing all those which do not support the narrative you're trying to pass off (which in this case is basically everything except Westbrook's numbers in that one series........Michael Jordan avg 29.8 pts/7.0 ast/3.0 tov @ 64.6% TS in series against Detroit in '91===>zomg! Dumars---+/- Rodman??---actually sucks at defense!).

And btw, what is the narrative you're pushing?...

CP is above average as a defender,....

He's a poor playoff defender.

Are you just trying to argue that "elite" overstates his defensive prowess? Fine, I don't have a problem with that (so maybe we can just drop it?).
Or are you trying to suggest he's a below average (or "poor") defender? Because, well.......see above.

[trex_8063]

also, in terms of fit, since I feel rapm is more of talent, role, and fit combined, Davis is not utilized right, at all. ill go more in depth if there is a howard vs davis vs Mouring discusion.

True enough. I've previously been the one cautioning others that "impact = goodness + fit + utilization", so it's good that you remind me of this. Perhaps I'm not giving Davis a fair shake.

just wondering, where do you rank davis on your list?

My "list" is very much a work in progress this far out; and at any rate I'm constantly shifting players around as I'm swayed one way or another regarding players.

I do think he'd be a valid selection at this point. And actually, I'm considering tossing him my 3rd ballot. My first two ballots are almost assuredly going to Paul and Mailman. I was somewhat leaning toward Nash for my third (though also considering Harden); but yeah, upon reflection, Davis could be considered in the mix.

[Dr Positivity]

Ballot 1 - Chris Paul 2008

Ballot 2 - Karl Malone 1995

Ballot 3 - Walt Frazier 1972

Dwight is very close for me but I struggle with his offensive skillset and whether it can be game planned for in the playoffs, I also thought he was in a great statistical situation spacing wise for his numbers.

[The-Power]

Back at home. Sorry for not being able to participate but I absolutely couldn't find the time to do so, unfortunately. I try to contribute at least a little bit going forward even though I can't guarantee it.

You know if you going to mention Chris and Nash for peaks i think 2003 Kidd should be right there with them. He is a pg that can anchor a Defense and he led the best d in the league 2003 putting up 19/6/9/2 526 ts ps 20/8/8/2 514 ts. They owned pretty much everyone including the next year champ pistons they lost to spurs with peak Duncan which most would anyway. Think he is over looked because of his offense but as for as D impact he **** on Paul and Nash well he is way above Nashs d.

I wouldn't consider Kidd yet. It isn't always as simple as saying 'he's clearly worse on offense but also clearly superior on defense; ergo he's belongs right up there'. In order to make the argument for Kidd you have to convincingly argue as to how his defensive impact is big enough to justify the enormous gap on offense.

Generally, perimeter players - and especially PGs - can have way more impact on offense than on defense. They control the offense but they can't control the defense to that extent. Offensively, Kidd never led a great offense and in fact he never came close to do so. In 2003 he rocked a 106.4 on-court ORTG which is quite good relative to his teammates but not even close to the offensive perimeter-forces - even if you don't hold his teammates in high regards. He managed to make a poor team average on offense. This is valuable but hardly something to write home about when we're talking about the best peaks in the history of the NBA. Nash, on the other hand, belongs in any conversation of the greatest offensive players in the history of the NBA. When your main ball handler displays such ability it carries a lot of weight because ultimately that's the first thing you're looking at unless you already have another highly effective ball handler who would lose a lot of his impact by taking the ball out of the hands. And then we're not even talking about Nash's off-ball game.

So, I'd ask you to answer this question: why should I believe that Kidd's defensive impact offsets the huge difference in terms of offense compared to Nash or Paul? You say he anchored the Jet's defense and their defense was indeed great. But did he? The numbers don't exactly back it up. The team-defense remained very steady regardless of which splits you're looking at. At a first glance it just seems like Kidd played the most minutes on a defensive-minded team. Great that he can do that but it's not like he anchored the defense all by himself or maybe not even significantly more than his average teammate. If you believe that then I tend to believe that you give Kidd way too much credit for his defensive-first team. Because not only do I not believe that one can back the anchor-argument (note that we have to put this into relation with the best anchors, i.e. most impactful defenders, in the history of the NBA) up with the numbers but you also have to make a good argument as to how a PG could actually anchor a defense like elite defensive-anchors do/did - which I think is simply not possible, especially for previous eras.

______________________________________________

I've seen Davis gaining some traction - and also people doubting his impact. I can see their reservations because we don't have much useful data outside of last season to get an overall feeling for his impact and RAPM seems to not be in awe of his impact. However, RAPM is obviously regularized and therefore should be treated with some caution when we compare Davis' current peak to players with a peak at a more established stage of their career which is usually the case.

What we do know is that he has the highest on-court ORTG, highest on/off-ORTG split and the highest on/off-DRTG on his team. The only player who comes close in terms of offensive splits is Tyreke Evans and when we look at some WOWY data to see who the main driver was, the result shows us that it was Davis most likely (looking at PPP and TS% of the team, respectively). Take it for what it's worth, but at least we shouldn't doubt his impact on his team - whether or not it puts him into the conversation of this spot. At least I don't believe one can fault someone for picking AD. But of course the same is true for a couple of other players as well, so it only means so much.

[trex_8063]

Posing this question again from an earlier thread:

Totally random, but what are people's thoughts on 2014 love? Box score #s are through the roof, and he had an on/off of +10.9 that season. The wolves' actual per 100 splits while he was on the court were 111.6/106, and they ranked 9th in SRS that season despite them going 40-42. Don't look like empty stats to me as some have suggested over the last year or 2.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

I think he's an OK mention at this point, though I'm not ready to lend him support in the immediate future. fwiw, he was only 25th in the league in RAPM, which---similar to Davis---indicates a bit of a disconnect between his box/advanced metrics and his impact. Not saying "empty stats", rather am merely pointing out that his impact appears to lag a little behind his boxscore production. However, I think his RAPM may be marginally depressed by lack of a playoff appearance (although fwiw, his RAPM was slightly behind teammate Ricky Rubio, who I think is much better than his box-related numbers).

And I don't think you can point to the fact that they went from 40-42 in '14 down to 16-66 in '15 as proof of massive impact. They had too many roster changes (lending Wiggins a lot of primacy too early imo, though obv they want to develop this new asset). Also aforementioned Rubio missed 60 games: and note they were 7-15 (.318) in the 22 [sort of sub-standard] games he played, and 9-51 (.150) in the 60 games he missed.
I suspect if Rubio was healthy all year, the TWolves win at least 26-28 games; which is still a drop from '14, but not falling thru the floor as they did.

Within the context of impact (and what it means: i.e. goodness + fit + utilization) and the whole "empty stats" debate, yada yada....

I meant to bring up one or two specific trends I'd historically noted with Love.
One characteristic behavior he had----NOTE: can't remember if this consistently applies to '14 specifically, fwiw---was that he did not try overly hard (or try at all) to close out on shooters, stay up tight and keep a hand right in opponent's grill on shots, or otherwise body-up hard and contest shots from the elbow......instead he would often offer only token shot-contesting (or none at all) and otherwise turn and head toward the rim to get the defensive rebound.

This is a behavior which will IMPROVE or INCREASE his box-based metrics, while simultaneously being of detriment to his team. This behavior doesn't necessarily even increase the probability of his team getting the rebound on a missed shot, because he's not actually looking for someone to put a body on.....he's merely drifting toward the hoop. Theoretically, if everyone commits to finding someone to box out, this prevents opposing players from getting the offensive rebound, and increases the likelihood that SOMEONE on your team gets the defensive board (even if it's not you). If, otoh, you're "going rogue" and just trying to get in close somewhere to get a rebound, it increases YOUR individual chance of obtaining the defensive rebound, but doesn't necessarily (though it might) increase your team's chance of obtaining said defensive rebound.

Again, I don't recall how well this characterization applies specifically to '14 version of Love, but it was certainly a consistent behavior of him early in his career. I do feel like it's getting better, but jsia.

otoh, I think Love is arguably the best outlet passer in the league today, which is a trait that carries some non-boxscore impact.

Anyway, just a couple observations about him.

[trex_8063]

Hey, just putting a feeler out there.......how do you guys feel about Elgin Baylor (likely '61)? With Oscar in at #15, West in at #19, he feels like someone who should be getting some traction really soon. Thoughts?

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

With Tracy McGrady in at 22, Bernard King's Peak should not be overlooked.

[E-Balla]

Hey, just putting a feeler out there.......how do you guys feel about Elgin Baylor (likely '61)? With Oscar in at #15, West in at #19, he feels like someone who should be getting some traction really soon. Thoughts?

I think he should be getting votes by thread 30 and maybe should even be in by then. He's consistently forgotten since unlike West, Oscar, or the bigs he didn't really change the game in any major way. Instead he was great in the way Pettit was where he was a legit MVP level guy in down years.

[trex_8063]

1st ballot: Chris Paul '15
Went thru Paul a bit in post 15 of the #19 thread, in comparing to Nash. Basically he's someone I don't put too far behind Nash as an offensive engine, while being obviously better defensively (a clear net positive defensively by all available impact indicators, who also received All-D 1st team this year, fwiw). Am waffling a little wrt what year to call his peak ('08 is obviously phenomenal, too). Impact appears so massive in '15, though, where he logged the highest offensive on/off on record (even over '83 Moses), and the 2nd highest total on/off (behind---barely---only '09 Lebron). There's line-up noise to this, obv, but even via recently released RAPM he came up 5th in league in ORAPM and 3rd in overall RAPM (behind only Lebron and barely behind the peak we voted in at #17--->'15 Curry).
And fwiw, I think '15 Paul is capable of larger volume numbers (to create larger PER, BPM, etc) if he were on a less talented squad; in a circumstance where, for instance, there was not an offensive talent as big as Blake Griffin. '15 version doesn't have the same explosiveness/athleticism as '08 version, but is a better shooter from basically everywhere on the floor, is a better defender; and though it may be situational, '15 Paul seems to have found better synergy with his team (toward positive impact) than '08 version.


2nd ballot: Karl Malone '97
As I'd stated in a prior thread, wherever Barkley is for peak, Malone (at the very least) should not be far behind. As myself and Dipper had gone over previously, peak Barkley (I went w/ '90, btw) was one of the most dominant/reliable post scorers of all-time, far more devastating in this aspect than Karl. He was also hyper-elite on the offensive glass, and fantastic in transition (and unlike Malone, could also be the guy LEADING the break). As Charles was often the guy leading the break, he was definitely a better transition passer than Karl.......but '97 Karl was better at basically better at everything else: he was better in the mid-range, better FT-shooter, better half-court passer, better defensive rebounder, better defender.


EDIT:
3rd ballot: Elgin Baylor '61
Been thinking on it, and I believe I want to make this switch in favor of an old-timer. To some degree the volume vs. efficiency considerations of Baylor (among others from this era) should be viewed with a bit of leniency, imo, as I noted in a later post (post #70) that efficiency and "finding a good shot" just wasn't on anyone's radar in the early 1960's. Any way you slice it, though, Baylor was an excellent (if not quite elite) scorer, and underrated playmaker for the SF position, as well as a GOAT-level rebounder for his position, and likely a better defender than some other perimeter players on the table presently (e.g. Nash, Harden).

Baylor '61 rs per 100 possession estimates: 31.1 pts, 17.75 reb, 4.55 ast @ +2.91% rTS. 28.2 PER, .227 WS/48 in 42.9 mpg
Baylor '61 playoff per 100 possession estimates: 32.5 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.9 ast @ +6.89% rTS (53.83% TS, which would be a little above average even by today's standards). 28.0 PER, .248 WS/48 in 45.0 mpg

[Clyde Frazier]

[Be sure to click on the youtube links as they don't seem to be embedding correctly right now]

Ballot #1 - 08 Paul

Spoiler:

Could change my vote by the next thread, but at least comfortable with Paul here for now. As an aside, only 6 players in NBA history have had a higher single season WS/48 mark than 09 Paul (min 65 GP). Going with 08 as it was his better combo of reg season and post season play. More than deserving of MVP that season, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THzAvrBQE5g

Ballot #2 - 72 Frazier

Spoiler:

I'd like to go with one of the championship years, but 72 was his best combo of RS and PS, so sticking with that for now. Reed didn't play in the finals, so the knicks just had no match for wilt, who put up 19.4 PPG and 23.2 RPG on 60% from the field. West was actually held to 19.8 PPG on 32.5% from the field in the series (24.8 PPG on 47.7% FG in RS)! Clyde was certainly doing work in that series on both ends of the court.

RS: 23.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, 57.6% TS (+7.2% vs. league avg), .223 WS/48

PS: 24.3 PPG, 7 RPG, 6.1 APG, 58.6% TS, .227 WS/48

Matching / exceeding his already stellar reg season play is very impressive.

A quick note about frazier's defense: people tend to say "racking up steals doesn't mean you're a good defender", but that's typically referring to guys who gamble on D for the steal. Frazier rarely did that. He got his steals by playing the passing lanes, and uniquely knocking the ball out of the players' hands by tapping it from behind. His size at 6'4" allowed him to guard both positions, and he was quick enough to body up smaller guys and make it difficult for them.

I think he's more than deserving of a spot in this range.

https://youtu.be/TVaCNzvvNf0?t=1m1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bYpndoQOiU -- Yeah, it's an AS game, but it's from 72 specifically, and gives a nice look at him from that year

Ballot #3 - 92 Karl Malone

I think we're at a point where the difference between players is even thinner than a few spots ago. There are other worthy candidates, but I do feel malone's due. Considering his many post season shortcomings, I went with 92 as it was a solid playoff run preceded by a par for the course, yet excellent reg season by malone.

RS: 28 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.3 SPG, .6 BPG, 59.9% TS, .237 WS/48, 118 ORTG

PS: 29.1 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG. 61.8% TS, .220 WS/48, 124 ORTG

Jazz eventually lost in 6 games to the #2 SRS blazers in the WCF. In the elimination game, malone had 19 pts and 23 boards on 62.5% TS along with a 121/112 OFF/DEF RTG. I'd consider that a fantastic season by malone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_ZFJu1VHb0

[trex_8063]

Thru post #59:

Chris Paul - 16
Karl Malone - 11
Walt Frazier - 4
Steve Nash - 3.33
Dwight Howard - 2
Bob McAdoo - 2
Anfernee Hardaway - 2
James Harden and Anthony Davis - 0.33 each

Dubious 0.33 for three players result of my current indecision; also waiting on a 3rd ballot from RSCD_3, too, btw. Seems as though CP3 is the favorite to win this one, Mailman heavy favorite to win the next. It appears WIDE open after that, though.
Looking to end balloting and start the next thread tomorrow morning guys.

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