Andrew Wiggins ceiling

rockmanslim · Post #41 » by **rockmanslim** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:29 pm

A more athletic but less coordinated Harrison Barnes.

Post #42 » by **tsherkin** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:32 pm

rockmanslim wrote:A more athletic but less coordinated Harrison Barnes.

Remember that this is his ceiling we're talking about. Wiggins is already better than a "more athletic, less coordinated Harrison Barnes."

Post #43 » by **Quotatious** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:48 pm

Harrison Barnes?! Man, that's so disrespectful to Wiggins. Barnes is the most overrated player in the NBA right now, in my opinion. He was terrible in last season's playoffs, and got a totally undeserved big contract in Dallas. Dude has a career PER of 11.7 and negative career BPM...

I wouldn't say Barnes is better than Wiggins even now, let alone Andrew's ceiling...

Barnes had a nice start to this season offensively, but man, his defense looks God awful. 117 DRtg and -5.0 DBPM...Can anybody who saw the first two games the Mavs played, tell me whether he was really that horrible on D? I'm looking at you, Texas Chuck. :wink:

Crazy-Canuck · Post #44 » by **Crazy-Canuck** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 5:58 am

tsherkin wrote:
Johnny Firpo wrote:I don't know, I guess I like Wiggins' form and footwork better, and I expect him to become a better shooter with time, even though this is not the case now.

I don't, at all. I expect him to have a fairly similar level of performance. I expect him to be a better overall scorer, though. I'm wondering if he'll do what DD is doing now and start to fitfully learn about playmaking, though, because he'll have much less opportunity to do that in Minny with everyone else who handles and such.

I think thibs read your post. As soon as rubio got hurt, it was wiggins running the offense in the 4th q. He became the primary ball handler and initiator.

Post #45 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:00 am

Crazy-Canuck wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Johnny Firpo wrote:I don't know, I guess I like Wiggins' form and footwork better, and I expect him to become a better shooter with time, even though this is not the case now.

I don't, at all. I expect him to have a fairly similar level of performance. I expect him to be a better overall scorer, though. I'm wondering if he'll do what DD is doing now and start to fitfully learn about playmaking, though, because he'll have much less opportunity to do that in Minny with everyone else who handles and such.

I think thibs read your post. As soon as rubio got hurt, it was wiggins running the offense in the 4th q. He became the primary ball handler and initiator.

Hey, if Thibs is game planning to give him opportunities to do it, then that eases the burden on Lavine (who isnt a PG) and opens doors for Wiggins to improve in an important area.

H2tObes · Post #46 » by **H2tObes** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:04 am

Why does he struggle so much with rebounding? Ultra athletic 6'8 dude has no excuse only grabbing 1 rebound in 37 minutes, 0 assists as well....he really needs to work on other areas of his game to maximize that sky high potential

XTC · Post #47 » by **XTC** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:12 am

Not sure about the rest of his game... but he will be a special scorer. How that effects him as a player I'm not sure. I can see him becoming a league leading scorer but not more than a 4 rebound and 3 assist guy, considering what I've seen out of him so far. Not sure what I really think of him honestly.

Post #48 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:13 am

XTC wrote:Not sure about the rest of his game... but he will be a special scorer. How that effects him as a player I'm not sure. I can see him becoming a league leading scorer but not more than a 4 rebound and 3 assist guy, considering what I've seen out of him so far. Not sure what I really think of him honestly.

Year Three is going to be big for Wiggins. We'll see what he's added to his game as the season progresses.

Ballerhogger · Post #49 » by **Ballerhogger** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 4:01 pm

He had 29 pts last night I mean he has pretty good ceiling. Rebounding and defense is still issue . The wolves last night lost to the kings. It's really early so not the end of the world but they will need beat to teams like the kings to be a playoff team.

Post #50 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 5:55 pm

Ballerhogger wrote:He had 29 pts last night I mean he has pretty good ceiling.

If we could step away from this kind of reasoning, that'd be awesome.

What would be better to say is "he did a remarkable job of getting to the line and scored a very efficient 29 points." You might even say "he had a hot jumper below the arc" and note that "he was cold from 3 but kept getting into the paint."

We do, however, need to stop leaving it just at the point totals, because those aren't super meaningful.

Wiggins looks like he's getting more comfortable, and in so doing, growing more assertive. The physical tools were always there. We'll see how well his J bears up over the course of the season because right now, he's a decent jumper away from being a quality mid-20s scorer already.

Ballerhogger · Post #51 » by **Ballerhogger** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:06 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Ballerhogger wrote:He had 29 pts last night I mean he has pretty good ceiling.

If we could step away from this kind of reasoning, that'd be awesome.

What would be better to say is "he did a remarkable job of getting to the line and scored a very efficient 29 points." You might even say "he had a hot jumper below the arc" and note that "he was cold from 3 but kept getting into the paint."

We do, however, need to stop leaving it just at the point totals, because those aren't super meaningful.

Wiggins looks like he's getting more comfortable, and in so doing, growing more assertive. The physical tools were always there. We'll see how well his J bears up over the course of the season because right now, he's a decent jumper away from being a quality mid-20s scorer already.

He was 10/19 so he didn't shoot bad at all. He was 8/11 from the line he had good scoring night .
Your right he has lot to improve but he was good last night.
On the other hand,
Rubio defense aside had 5 AST in only 28m and to 1 and 5 points. Not good .Wiggins was the major highlight for the wolves last night .

Post #52 » by **tsherkin** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:11 pm

Ballerhogger wrote:He was 10/19 so he didn't shoot bad at all. He was 8/11 from the line he had good scoring night .
Your right he has lot to improve but he was good last night.

No, my point wasn't at all that he a lot to improve. Strictly looking at his scoring, he had a fantastic night. That was my point. Instead of just focusing on the total, we can talk about those things that I mentioned. Those are all far more important than the 29. He had 11 FTA on 19 shots, he was 4/6 below the arc and out of the paint, he got into the paint essentially at will and did damage when he was there. He was 1-4 from 3, but at least he had some confidence and assertion in his approach to the game, which hasn't always been the case.

The rest of his game was really plain or weak, but we're talking about scoring ceiling. I only meant that as opposed to just talking about the volume, we could talk more about the hows which went into the scoring.

Mattya · Post #53 » by **Mattya** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:12 pm

Ballerhogger wrote:He had 29 pts last night I mean he has pretty good ceiling. Rebounding and defense is still issue . The wolves last night lost to the kings. It's really early so not the end of the world but they will need beat to teams like the kings to be a playoff team.

His defense was pretty good last night, but he needs to up those boards.

GrayJM · Post #54 » by **GrayJM** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:26 am

I don't see Wiggins being much more than a borderline all-star, but he could surprise me because he sure does have potential. I just don't see him reaching it. I think he will max out as a 21/5/3 player with low percentages from the field.

HeartBreakKid · Post #55 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:04 pm

GrayJM wrote:I don't see Wiggins being much more than a borderline all-star, but he could surprise me because he sure does have potential. I just don't see him reaching it. I think he will max out as a 21/5/3 player with low percentages from the field.

Scoring wise he's already a 21 PPG scorer with low percentages from the field, you think his scoring ability is maxed out?

yoyoboy · Post #56 » by **yoyoboy** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:55 pm

Around the level of peak Kevin Martin with better defense is my guess. I could see averages of 26/5/3 with ~59% TS efficiency and neutral defense.

I don't think his box-score numbers will translate to the impact that they'd suggest though. He's such a one-dimensional player at the moment and I don't see that improving significantly. Even his defense is terrible and that was supposed to be an NBA-ready ability. This third year will be big for him.

Post #57 » by **tsherkin** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:58 pm

yoyoboy wrote:Around the level of peak Kevin Martin with better defense is my guess. I could see averages of 26/5/3 with ~59% TS efficiency and neutral defense.

So, 26 ppg on 59% TS would make him one of the very best in the league at posting efficient scoring numbers. Where do you see his major leverage? What skill/attribute do you think he'll lean on to score at that level?

yoyoboy · Post #58 » by **yoyoboy** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:28 pm

tsherkin wrote:
yoyoboy wrote:Around the level of peak Kevin Martin with better defense is my guess. I could see averages of 26/5/3 with ~59% TS efficiency and neutral defense.

So, 26 ppg on 59% TS would make him one of the very best in the league at posting efficient scoring numbers. Where do you see his major leverage? What skill/attribute do you think he'll lean on to score at that level?

Getting to the line. He already posted 21 ppg on 54.5% TS last season when he was just 20 years old. And he attempted 7 free throws a game. For comparison the list of guys 20 or younger who shot at least 7 FTA/g includes just seven names: LeBron, KD, Carmelo, Dantley, Shaq, Dwight, and John Drew. Outside of Drew, the worst scorers on that list are Dwight (who gave you 23 ppg on 61.5% TS at his peak) and Carmelo (29 ppg on 56% TS).

I don't think it's unreasonable for him to bump that point total up 5 points and his efficiency 4.5% (which I'm not denying is significant) by the time he hits his peak 5 or so years from now. So far he's shown two major scoring abilities in his free throw draw rate and his postup ability. I don't expect him to ever become a great shooter, but I think he can become decent. Post AS he shot 40%+ from three and he's started off the year doing the same. Small sample size no doubt, but it's certainly not a bad sign...

I could see him being a 35% shooter from long range, around 78% from the line, and great at finishing in his prime. For reference he shot 58% within 10 feet last year. LeBron was at 65.5% and Curry was at 56.5% to give an idea of where that stands. Pretty good for a second year player who still has plenty of time to bulk up and get even better at finishing in the paint with the added strength that'll come with it.

To be honest, I'm not extremely high on Wiggins. I don't think he'll ever be a guy who can be the 1st option on a contending team. But I do see him reaching perennial All-Star status and that will mainly be because of his scoring ability, as he lacks the all-around game.

HeartBreakKid · Post #59 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:31 pm

One thing I wonder is the impact of his scoring. Let's say Wiggins does put up decent boxscore numbers, would it translate to the playoffs?

Post #60 » by **Quotatious** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:36 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:One thing I wonder is the impact of his scoring. Let's say Wiggins does put up decent boxscore numbers, would it translate to the playoffs?

His elite ability to draw fouls and being a very good finisher in the paint should make him a pretty resilient scorer, so yeah, I think he would be fine in the playoffs.