Better Player Right Now: Giannis Antetokounmpo V Anthony Davis

[clyde21]

Anthony Davis.

Giannis is a monster but not quite there yet.

[bballexpert]

What impact stats are you talking about?

AD crushes Giannis in on/off, beats him in RPM and PI RAPM.

This. Plus Davis' third season is still better than anything Giannis has done. Lot of things swirling in NO at the moment.

Davis is the better scorer, rebounder and defender. Just a bigger imprint right now.

Hugely impressive jump from G though in the last year.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I didn't wanted to post because of my bias but il just add these as a reminded.
Giannis:

Became the 5th player in the NBA history to lead his team in all Major categories.

Became the ONLY player in NBA history to be in top 20 in all Major categories.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has clinched a 22 PTS/8 REB/5 AST/1.5 STL/1.5 BLK season, which has never been done in the History of the NBA.

Led the League in Blocks + Steals combined.


Yeah, he done nothing indeed,just carried the Bucks to 6tyh seed with 2 rookies starters, Henson and Plumlee as starters ,Snell all while losing Jabari to another ACL and Middleton return last 29 games after major injury.


Its Easy to mention AD's supporting cast but for Giannis its magically forgotten.

Yea but the east is weaker conference do not have to deal with facing the spurs, rockets or warriors as many times. I still take Davis 2015 ps play over what Giannis did his ft shooting was pretty big flaw in his game this ps.

[bmurph128]

Surprised myself by going with Giannis. But then again, when in doubt, I go with the wing.

[Magic Giannison]

This. Plus Davis' third season is still better than anything Giannis has done. Lot of things swirling in NO at the moment.

Davis is the better scorer, rebounder and defender. Just a bigger imprint right now.

Hugely impressive jump from G though in the last year.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I didn't wanted to post because of my bias but il just add these as a reminded.
Giannis:

Became the 5th player in the NBA history to lead his team in all Major categories.

Became the ONLY player in NBA history to be in top 20 in all Major categories.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has clinched a 22 PTS/8 REB/5 AST/1.5 STL/1.5 BLK season, which has never been done in the History of the NBA.

Led the League in Blocks + Steals combined.


Yeah, he done nothing indeed,just carried the Bucks to 6tyh seed with 2 rookies starters, Henson and Plumlee as starters ,Snell all while losing Jabari to another ACL and Middleton return last 29 games after major injury.


Its Easy to mention AD's supporting cast but for Giannis its magically forgotten.

Yea but the east is weaker conference do not have to deal with facing the spurs, rockets or warriors as many times. I still take Davis 2015 ps play over what Giannis did his ft shooting was pretty big flaw in his game this ps.

You make it sound that getting to 8 seed on west is somehow of an achievement. Especially when you got 2 superstars on your team ( yes i know he joined late)

Yes East is weaker but not the point of being the deciding factor to that extend. Bucks did actually pretty nice against West teams and won teams like Spurs Rockets Thunder. Its not like they won only the bottom teams.

[bballexpert]

I didn't wanted to post because of my bias but il just add these as a reminded.
Giannis:

Became the 5th player in the NBA history to lead his team in all Major categories.

Became the ONLY player in NBA history to be in top 20 in all Major categories.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has clinched a 22 PTS/8 REB/5 AST/1.5 STL/1.5 BLK season, which has never been done in the History of the NBA.

Led the League in Blocks + Steals combined.


Yeah, he done nothing indeed,just carried the Bucks to 6tyh seed with 2 rookies starters, Henson and Plumlee as starters ,Snell all while losing Jabari to another ACL and Middleton return last 29 games after major injury.


Its Easy to mention AD's supporting cast but for Giannis its magically forgotten.

Yea but the east is weaker conference do not have to deal with facing the spurs, rockets or warriors as many times. I still take Davis 2015 ps play over what Giannis did his ft shooting was pretty big flaw in his game this ps.

You make it sound that getting to 8 seed on west is somehow of an achievement. Especially when you got 2 superstars on your team ( yes i know he joined late)

Yes East is weaker but not the point of being the deciding factor to that extend. Bucks did actually pretty nice against West teams and won teams like Spurs Rockets Thunder. Its not like they won only the bottom teams.

Cousins did not fit well at first and Davis had injury problems not to mention facing the top west team more times going to hurt your record in terms of wins. Also I would still take Davis play in 2015 against the warriors he play amazing against a 60 plus win team and offense was pretty nuts as well. Giannis played well but his ft shooting and not having range was a pretty glaring weeknes I do not se in Davis yet great player but he needs to work on his shot and ft shooting.

[Magic Giannison]

Yea but the east is weaker conference do not have to deal with facing the spurs, rockets or warriors as many times. I still take Davis 2015 ps play over what Giannis did his ft shooting was pretty big flaw in his game this ps.

You make it sound that getting to 8 seed on west is somehow of an achievement. Especially when you got 2 superstars on your team ( yes i know he joined late)

Yes East is weaker but not the point of being the deciding factor to that extend. Bucks did actually pretty nice against West teams and won teams like Spurs Rockets Thunder. Its not like they won only the bottom teams.

Cousins did not fit well at first and Davis had injury problems not to mention facing the top west team more times going to hurt your record in terms of wins. Also I would still take Davis play in 2015 against the warriors he play amazing against a 60 plus win team and offense was pretty nuts as well. Giannis played well but his ft shooting and not having range was a pretty glaring weeknes I do not se in Davis yet great player but he needs to work on his shot and ft shooting.

Injury problems? The bucks lost Jabari to 2nd ACL and Middletton returned last 29 games after major tear. Bucks were starting 2 rookies with Plumlee/Henson and Snell. Please dont bring me injuries excuses.
Shooting is not the everything in the NBA especially when someone like Giannis averages 23 pts on fantastic efficiency and impact everything on the floor.

[clyde21]

I don't think there's a wrong answer here, but when Anthony Davis is dropping 50 points in his sleep, it's hard not to pick him. When he's in the zone like that, he might be the best player in the league.

[bballexpert]

You make it sound that getting to 8 seed on west is somehow of an achievement. Especially when you got 2 superstars on your team ( yes i know he joined late)

Yes East is weaker but not the point of being the deciding factor to that extend. Bucks did actually pretty nice against West teams and won teams like Spurs Rockets Thunder. Its not like they won only the bottom teams.

Cousins did not fit well at first and Davis had injury problems not to mention facing the top west team more times going to hurt your record in terms of wins. Also I would still take Davis play in 2015 against the warriors he play amazing against a 60 plus win team and offense was pretty nuts as well. Giannis played well but his ft shooting and not having range was a pretty glaring weeknes I do not se in Davis yet great player but he needs to work on his shot and ft shooting.

Injury problems? The bucks lost Jabari to 2nd ACL and Middletton returned last 29 games after major tear. Bucks were starting 2 rookies with Plumlee/Henson and Snell. Please dont bring me injuries excuses.
Shooting is not the everything in the NBA especially when someone like Giannis averages 23 pts on fantastic efficiency and impact everything on the floor.

Davis was having injury problems with himself that slowed him down. Also Giannis atleast had a 20 point scorer for 50 games of the season no one on Davis could score till Cousin came at the end of the season. Not to mention Giannis play went down in ps compared to rs in more noticeable against weaker team while Davis in ps was scoring monster against GS top defense.

[Colbinii]

You make it sound that getting to 8 seed on west is somehow of an achievement.

It was. The Pelicans finished 45-37, 1.13 SRS in a division where 4 other teams won 50 games. This season, the Bucks finished 42-40, -0.43 SRS, and played in a relatively weak division with only 1 team above 50 games (everyone else 42 or below).

Especially when you got 2 superstars on your team ( yes i know he joined late)

Pelicans did not have a second superstar in 2015. If you are implying that just because the Pelicans gutted an already poor roster for DeMarcus Cousins then they should make the playoffs, that is simply being shortsighted. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade started 9-7 together. The Pelicans had Cousins for 17 games this season.

Yes East is weaker but not the point of being the deciding factor to that extend. Bucks did actually pretty nice against West teams and won teams like Spurs Rockets Thunder. Its not like they won only the bottom teams.

The Bucks beat the Spurs with Giannis playing 9 minutes.
They beat the twice Clippers because Milwaukee's Bench was much better (All Clippers starters had a positive +/-, Giannis had a negative +/- for the game).

[NO-KG-AI]

The Bucks and Pelicans have both been anywhere from mediocre to a mess during the times the two have been there. they've both been on bad versions, and playoff versions of these teams. I honestly don't think it's productive to nitpick about whose poor cast was better, or how much the conference difference mattered, or who provided more of a lift to a bad team or whatever.

Honestly, I don't even care what player can lift a bad team more, but I think it's a useless debate. It never gets anywhere either. We can gather enough from their play and their numbers to not use arbitrary team accomplishments, when neither has accomplished much in a team sense.

[oldschooled]

Davis. Until Giannis fix that jump shot.

When Giannis fixes that Jump shot don't you assume he will average 30 PPG in his sleep then?

Nah. I dont think Giannis will avg 30. He'll focus himself more on playmaking and defense.

[Joey Wheeler]

Can't believe how underplayed AD is here. This guy is a monster, one of the most talented players in the history of this league. 6'11, can score at will in a variety of ways, he's absolutely dominant both in the post and from mid range. He also has DPOY potential.

Giannis is a future superstar for sure, but AD is one of those players who define a generation. It'll be his league after Lebron's run is over.

[Bad Gatorade]

Spoiler:

What impact stats are you talking about?

AD crushes Giannis in on/off, beats him in RPM and PI RAPM.

This. Plus Davis' third season is still better than anything Giannis has done. Lot of things swirling in NO at the moment.

Davis is the better scorer, rebounder and defender. Just a bigger imprint right now.

Hugely impressive jump from G though in the last year.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I didn't wanted to post because of my bias but il just add these as a reminded.
Giannis:

Became the 5th player in the NBA history to lead his team in all Major categories.

Became the ONLY player in NBA history to be in top 20 in all Major categories.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has clinched a 22 PTS/8 REB/5 AST/1.5 STL/1.5 BLK season, which has never been done in the History of the NBA.

Led the League in Blocks + Steals combined.


Yeah, he done nothing indeed,just carried the Bucks to 6tyh seed with 2 rookies starters, Henson and Plumlee as starters ,Snell all while losing Jabari to another ACL and Middleton return last 29 games after major injury.


Its Easy to mention AD's supporting cast but for Giannis its magically forgotten.

When assessing Giannis (and players in general), the thing is that box score stats can only tell you so much. Giannis' box scores are awesome, and he's going to beat most players strictly based on the box score. It's worth looking at his impact levels, observing whether or not they correlate with his box score imprint, the eye test and the concept of team fit, and making an assessment from there.

A preliminary analysis of his impact levels isn't overly flattering when assessing Giannis as a player. The Bucks are +2.9 with Giannis on the court compared to him off the court. His RAPM this year was 1.69, good for 72nd in the league. He ranks 18th in RPM, but some of this is undoubtedly prompted by his awesome box scores. His raw +- numbers don't really receive much separation from the rest of the Bucks (guys like Middleton and Monroe beat him here). So automatically, we can witness a notable dissonance between his remarkable box scores and his decent, but unremarkable impact numbers.

I think that it's worth looking at his box score numbers in more detail in order to see if there's any area in which they might be overrated.

Points
Giannis scored 22.9 PPG on a TS% of 59.9. He was assisted on under 50% on his shots. On the surface, this seems like he's having immense scoring impact. And truth be told - Giannis is a very effective scorer. However, the value of scoring cannot strictly be pinned down to volume and efficiency. A guy like, say, Tracy McGrady wasn't overly efficient (save for 2002-03), but his ability to warp defences and absorb "bad" shots allowed for his teammates to take "better" shots. And honestly, I feel like to an extent, Giannis' ability to do this is impeded due to his poor jump shooting - Giannis is most effective at driving and finishing at the rim, and this can take away interior shots from his teammates.

Looking at NBAWowy numbers, with Giannis on the court, the Bucks take 36.8% of their field goals from 0-3 feet, and have a FTr of 0.281. With Giannis off the court, these numbers drop to 34.5% and 0.253. So, there's clearly some form of benefit from having Giannis on the court. However, when Giannis is on the court, his teammates only take 31.7% of their shots from 0-3 and have a FTr of 0.210. In other words, Giannis' teammates are no longer taking the most efficient shots that they can, and Giannis' awesome efficiency doesn't cultivate a wider team efficiency improvement the way that his raw numbers would showcase. This is a contributing factor behind why the Bucks are 110.3 on offence with Giannis, and 108.3 without - still obviously better with Giannis, but not quite the precipitous drop off without him as his raw scoring numbers would likely showcase.

Of course, a player with a strong dribble-drive game can still have immense impact stemming from their playmaking skills, which brings us to -

Assists
The most "valuable" assists are assists to the interior - it's more difficult to pass to the interior than it is to create assists for jump shots, but the reward is greater. Passing for dunks/layups results in creating a higher percentage opportunity, but also creates more turnovers. A player like Westbrook/Harden, despite being fairly heavy on driving, creates a lot of interior opportunities for their teammates - guys like Adams and Capela receive "easy" shots due to their playmaking, and the playmaker often has more turnovers. Players who pass for a lot of jump shots are often overrated by, say, assist/turnover ratio, and are often overrated by their raw assist totals. And Giannis is an example here - of his 5.43 assists per game, only 33.5% of these passes result in either a dunk or a layup. This is actually pretty low (a closer estimate for the 2016-17 season is around 38.2% for all 5+ assist players). This doesn't mean that Giannis is a bad playmaker, but it does show that statistics constituting both assists and turnovers (i.e. almost any box score statistic) is likely to overrate Giannis relative to other players.

Rebounds
There was a lot of discussion on contested rebounds this past season, with Westbrook being the main recipient of scrutiny. Most data studied showcases that "contested" boards tend to matter more than "uncontested" boards, so certain players are overrated/underrated due to their raw rebounding totals. Giannis is an example of this - of the 7 players in the league to average 1.4 contested defensive rebounds, Giannis is an outlier in terms of uncontested boards - his 5.6 ranks 1st in this sample group, with the other 6 players ranging between 3.6 and 4.7. Without doing any large scale regression (and simply observing the data, which should suffice here), Giannis has one of the larger uncontested rebound %s of any of the higher profile rebounders in the league. He's also not that great at offensive rebounding either - much of his rebounding value is constituted by uncontested defensive boards, which are the raw rebounds that move the needle least on an impact level.

So automatically, there are reasons to believe that the "big 3" box score stats might overstate Giannis' value. This doesn't mean that he's not a good player at all, nor does it mean that the impact stats are wholly conclusive (I think he's clearly better than 72nd, for the record), but there's definitely reason to believe that his raw box score numbers might overrate his actual value. Interestingly enough, the case of assists and rebounds show that you don't even need to look at Giannis' individual impact numbers to draw upon this - simply segregating the type of assist/rebound involved and linking them to larger impact trends can help showcase this!

FWIW, there are also statistics that can help support Giannis' case. From memory, Giannis has some really good rim protection numbers and doesn't grab that many goaltends, which help provide credence to his block totals, and also help support the idea of him being an effective, versatile defender. Without looking into it at the moment, things like looking at deflections, contested shots etc can also help highlight how much activity and versatility a player is providing on defence.

It's kind of late over in Australia (and I've got a baby that I need to monitor) so I think I'll need to stop it here, but this is my central message - box score stats have value, and they're often orthogonal to impact stats. A guy like Giannis performs much better in the first set of statistics than in the latter. But what's most important is understanding whether or not there is more to the box score statistics that can help explain why Giannis' impact stats aren't quite as impressive as his box score would showcase. He's a very good player, but there are still numerous flaws/niggles in his game that he needs to iron out before becoming an MVP level player. He's certainly young enough and talented enough to get there someday, but he's not quite there yet. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.