RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#41 » by WhateverBro » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:41 pm

mdonnelly1989 wrote:VOTE 1: Kobe

I would take Kobe Bryant here because he was legitimately a top 3 player in the league from 2002 ---2009 that's a long prime and your going get at least 25 a game and maximum effort. Although I don't think Kobe should be a top 10 player in the league I think he is a lock top 12 possibly with only Oscar Robertson ahead.

VOTE 2 Oscar Robertson

My grandpa's friend think's The Big O is the greatest player who has ever lived. And if there is a way to bring the Big O into a time machine, I think he may prove us right as we don't know to the EXACT extent of how good Big O was relatively speaking to this area.

This is why I have Oscar placed 11th. Even in a relatively weak era you have to give credit where it's do and he averaged like 25/9/9 for his career.


The bolded, what? He was not a legitimately top 3 player from 2002-2009, that's ridiculous. I would understand if you phrased it "has a case" which is reasonable, although I strongly disgaree. Also, it's probably not reasonable because I don't even see a case for him in 04 and 05 for example.

In 2002, Duncan, KG and Shaq all have very solid cases over him. In 2003, Duncan, KG, McGrady and probably Shaq, too. 2004 was a clear down year for Bryant; KG, Duncan and Shaq were clearly better. In 2005, there were several players better than Bryant; Nash, Duncan, KG, Shaq, Wade, Nowitzki etc.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#42 » by JoeMalburg » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:52 pm

My season by season ranks for Kobe Bryant's prime seasons (00-11)

11
4
4
5
4
14
4
5
2
2
5
7

For comparison:

Erving (72-84): 5,6,2,1,1,3,4,4,2,1,1,4,4

Oscar (61-71): 5,4,3,3,3,3,4,4,5,5,5

West (62-73): 6,6,5,4,4,5,2,1,2,2,3,4
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#43 » by Winsome Gerbil » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:57 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:I'll make my vote in a few hours. I'm still a bit undecided...

I'm between Kobe, Dirk, Karl Malone and Oscar Robertson. More likely to vote Kobe + Dirk... but that's as low as I'll wait to put Karl Malone in. I don't want to sound biased because he's our biggest icon... But but given how I choose players I think Malone should be in soon.


Don't apologize for putting Karl Malone up here.

and as I mentioned last thread, Dirk Nowitzki was basically worse at EVERYTHING than Karl Malone. Except being a one on one scorer, which I do highly value. But putting him up here is still a remnant of recency bias/oh boy did he win a title!

Hi, I'm a PF.

The other guys rebound better than me.
The other guys defend better than me.
The other guys pass better than me.
One of the other guys in particular even scores better than me.
But I should sure did have a nifty turnaround fallaway jumper. So I'm the greatest!

That's not how it works. Or it certainly shouldn't be.

I remain heartily unconvinced that KG > Mailman.

I remain just as unconvinced that Dirk > Barkley.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#44 » by JoeMalburg » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:05 pm

Winsome Gerbil wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:I'll make my vote in a few hours. I'm still a bit undecided...

I'm between Kobe, Dirk, Karl Malone and Oscar Robertson. More likely to vote Kobe + Dirk... but that's as low as I'll wait to put Karl Malone in. I don't want to sound biased because he's our biggest icon... But but given how I choose players I think Malone should be in soon.


Don't apologize for putting Karl Malone up here.

and as I mentioned last thread, Dirk Nowitzki was basically worse at EVERYTHING than Karl Malone. Except being a one on one scorer, which I do highly value. But putting him up here is still a remnant of recency bias/oh boy did he win a title!

Hi, I'm a PF.

The other guys rebound better than me.
The other guys defend better than me.
The other guys pass better than me.
One of the other guys in particular even scores better than me.
But I should sure did have a nifty turnaround fallaway jumper. So I'm the greatest!

That's not how it works. Or it certainly shouldn't be.

I remain heartily unconvinced that KG > Mailman.

I remain just as unconvinced that Dirk > Barkley.


I'm with you. We may be about the same age, but I watched both Barkley and Malone and KG and Dirk. The eye test tells me that the later pair were superior players. But I concede that both Dirk and KG have equal or better resumes and most important they have the title as an alpha.

Therefore the debate is wide open in my opinion and comes down to preference and how you weigh specific criteria.

Do you think it's fair to say that Dirk and KG redefined the position as much as Barkley and Malone did?

What I mean is,before the 80's, the power forward position was primarily a defense/enforcer/role player position. They developed the modern archetype for the PF, the blue collar superstar, a lane filling, above the rim terror in transition and a glass cleaning, pick and roll weapon and post-up problem in the half court.

KG and Dirk expanded the position greatly. Both had center size and SF skills and they were respectively the best offensive and defensive forward of their generation.

Anyway, love the conversation.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#45 » by mikejames23 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:15 pm

JoeMalburg wrote:My season by season ranks for Kobe Bryant's prime seasons (00-11)

11
4
4
5
4
14
4
5
2
2
5
7

For comparison:

Erving (72-84): 5,6,2,1,1,3,4,4,2,1,1,4,4

Oscar (61-71): 5,4,3,3,3,3,4,4,5,5,5

West (62-73): 6,6,5,4,4,5,2,1,2,2,3,4


This could frankly just be League Data and Expansion. We just have way more to work with. Oscar and West have ended up where they have constantly because we don't know how well certain players did in certain seasons. For all we know there are years where you would have placed Oscar at 6 or 7 if there was more info on an unexpected star having superstar impact.

An Oscar or Jerry West conversation doesn't come close to matching the depth you can have on 00's stars like Kobe, Dirk, KG.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#46 » by Hornet Mania » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:16 pm

11. Kobe Bryant
2nd Vote: Oscar Robertson

I've written on Kobe the last two threads, so I'll just say he was an incredible offensive player that had an underrated (and elite) ability to feed his big men and lift their game as well. Excellent longevity, half of a dynastic pair (Shaq/Kobe) that threepeated with otherwise middling support in a loaded West, an offensive explosion in 06 with volume that hadn't been seen since Jordan and Wilt, a second conference threepeat and repeat championship run as the best player (08-10), and a few fantastic offensive seasons tacked on for good measure. His 2012 season is particularly underrated, really carried that team despite all the dysfunction, I hate that he didn't get one last playoff appearance because he certainly earned it.

Oscar Robertson is next man up for me, a versatile player who was truly ahead of his team. Best PG (imo) of all-time not named Magic Johnson. His raw production seems incredible, and his reputation was that of a player who commanded the game with incredible intelligence. I'm open to other arguments, I'm favoring Dr. J, Karl Malone and Jerry West for the next few spots.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#47 » by Winsome Gerbil » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:23 pm

JoeMalburg wrote:
Winsome Gerbil wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:I'll make my vote in a few hours. I'm still a bit undecided...

I'm between Kobe, Dirk, Karl Malone and Oscar Robertson. More likely to vote Kobe + Dirk... but that's as low as I'll wait to put Karl Malone in. I don't want to sound biased because he's our biggest icon... But but given how I choose players I think Malone should be in soon.


Don't apologize for putting Karl Malone up here.

and as I mentioned last thread, Dirk Nowitzki was basically worse at EVERYTHING than Karl Malone. Except being a one on one scorer, which I do highly value. But putting him up here is still a remnant of recency bias/oh boy did he win a title!

Hi, I'm a PF.

The other guys rebound better than me.
The other guys defend better than me.
The other guys pass better than me.
One of the other guys in particular even scores better than me.
But I should sure did have a nifty turnaround fallaway jumper. So I'm the greatest!

That's not how it works. Or it certainly shouldn't be.

I remain heartily unconvinced that KG > Mailman.

I remain just as unconvinced that Dirk > Barkley.


I'm with you. We may be about the same age, but I watched both Barkley and Malone and KG and Dirk. The eye test tells me that the later pair were superior players. But I concede that both Dirk and KG have equal or better resumes and most important they have the title as an alpha.

Therefore the debate is wide open in my opinion and comes down to preference and how you weigh specific criteria.

Do you think it's fair to say that Dirk and KG redefined the position as much as Barkley and Malone did?

What I mean is,before the 80's, the power forward position was primarily a defense/enforcer/role player position. They developed the modern archetype for the PF, the blue collar superstar, a lane filling, above the rim terror in transition and a glass cleaning, pick and roll weapon and post-up problem in the half court.

KG and Dirk expanded the position greatly. Both had center size and SF skills and they were respectively the best offensive and defensive forward of their generation.

Anyway, love the conversation.


I think whenever you talk about players at this Top 20 type of level you are talking about guys who have unique skillsets and impacts. Kobe might be the only at this level who was kinda a "poor man's" version of somebody else, and he chose his idol well. Maybe Duncan has some "conventional great big" in him.

Anyway, KG and Dirk were obviously unique looking figures, but I think the jump that Barkley and Mailman represented was larger as they practically invented the modern position and entire idea of the superstar PF. In fact actually there is even a clear Barkley --> KG pedigree, as Chris Webber has stated in the past that he grew up idolizing Barkley, and KG has stated in the past that he tried to pattern himself after Webber.

I think Dirk's stretchiness is obviously a factor, but he wasn't really the first, guys like Cliff Robinson and Tom Chambers and Detlef Shrempf were all experimenting with that stuff, just in a lower volume 3pt shooting era.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#48 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:10 pm

1st vote - Kobe Bryant

We saw Bryant at a ton of roles. 2nd best player on the team (nothing against it, he deserves all the credit and in the 01 playoff he actually made it a 1a 1b situation with peak Shaq, and that's incredible), leading man with a poor cast (05, 06) and as the man (08-10). Of course his career is wider than this, but mostly this is where I see value coming from Kobe.

And man, did he deliver.

Did he have some situations where he could have done better? Sure. But mostly he was very successfull given the situation he was in.

I'm bringing Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone for discussion here, since one of them seems to be valued by many people for this spot (KG) and the other is the one I thought about voting for this spot.

Against KG:
- Many people talk about KG having a poor cast, and excuse him for not making the playoffs. Some say KG was much more impactful than Kobe only based on on/off numbers. Well, in 06 both of them had poor casts. But Kobe willed the Lakers into the playoffs, and his scoring was definitely a major weapon. The Lakers were actually a good offensive team, and most of it came from Kobe's crazy ability to score. Think about it - 35.4 PPG 55.9 ts%, 38.7 USG%, 4.5 APG and only 9 TOV%. That's elite efficiency production on offense. He brought the impact to a bad roster that KG couldn't bring. I believe this a lot more than on/off numbers, and the Lakers offense with that roster had absolutely not business at being - 8th ORTG.

I guess one player can have more impact with extraordinary offensive game on a bad team than a great defender. So even if you consider Kobe's offense = KG's defense, in this context of a bad squad I think Kobe's ability to score gives you a better chance and more impact.

- With great casts we have a much bigger sample for Kobe. He played with prime Shaq, and then when he was the leader he played with an incredible frontcourt. But he delivered. The run to 08 NBA finals is something I believe KG wouldn't be able to replicate impact wise. His 09 playoff were also fantastic. And how about 01? Kobe was in a 1a and 1b type of situation with prime Shaq on his team. Coming from a player who is mostly known for his offense, that's an incredible achievement by itself. KG surely did well with the Celtics... but I don't think those Celtics teams were actually inferior against the 08-10 Lakers. Celtics had more star power along KG than the Lakers had along Kobe, and usually a deeper team. But Kobe was a big piece in surpassing that challange.

So basically I believe Kobe reached higher as a playoff performer, and proved he could play more roles at absolutely high impact than Kevin Garnett. That's why I think Kobe was the superior player. People can disagree, but that's my point of view.


Now against Malone... I'd say it's hard. I think Kobe was the best playoff performer between them. Again, he reached higher heights as an offensive talent. His longevity seems decent enough against Malone, even tough I have Malone in very high regard.

I'm not saying I won't argue 92, 94 or 98 Malone against the best Kobe's runs, but even there I feel like Malone falls a bit short. I'd strongly argue that 01, 08 and 09 are the 3 best playoff runs among them.

So because of playoff consistency, making the best of most of his situations, being a proven player in diverse roles, my vote goes to Kobe Bryant.

2nd vote - Karl Malone
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#49 » by eminence » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:46 pm

An MVP level player should have taken the '06 Lakers to the playoffs. I am beyond tired of the story that KG and Kobe's mid '00's casts were on the same level.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#50 » by Purch » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:53 pm

Let me repost this

I think its about time to talk about Charles Barkley

The only player to win an Mvp over Jordan in his absolute prime.

Charles Barkley

Career Leaders and Records for Offensive Rating

1. Chris Paul 122.44 (G)
2. Reggie Miller 121.48 (SG)
3. Magic Johnson* 120.79 (PG-Point F)
4. John Stockton* 120.55 (PG)
5. Kiki Vandeweghe 119.49 (SF-SG)
6. Sidney Moncrief 119.40 (CG-PG)
7. Charles Barkley* 119.31 (PF)

SHOT MADE/MISS DIFFERENTIAL STAT-
(minimum 15,000 shot attempts)


1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +3,367.5
2. Shaquille O'Neal: +3,200.5
3. Wilt Chamberlain: +1,865
4. Charles Barkley: +1,434

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Player Efficiency Rating


1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. LeBron James 26.91
3. Shaquille O'Neal 26.43
4. David Robinson* 26.18
5. Wilt Chamberlain* 26.13
6. Dwyane Wade 25.65
7. Bob Pettit* 25.35
8. Chris Paul 25.22
9. Tim Duncan 24.84
10. Neil Johnston* 24.63
11. Charles Barkley* 24.63

NBA & ABA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Player Efficiency Rating


1. Michael Jordan* 28.59
2. George Mikan* 28.51
3. LeBron James 26.31
4. Shaquille O'Neal 26.12
5. Hakeem Olajuwon* 25.69
6. Tim Duncan 25.43
7. Dirk Nowitzki 24.75
8. Tracy McGrady 24.66
9. Dwyane Wade 24.56
10. Charles Barkley* 24.18

Nba all time career leaders in True Shooting %

1. Cedric Maxwell .6294
2. Artis Gilmore .6227
3. Dave Twardzik .6184
4. James Donaldson .6177
5. Adrian Dantley .6166
6. Tyson Chandler .6166
7. Reggie Miler .6139
8. Charles Barkley .6120

Most seasons with a 2 point percentage of 60% or more ( playing at least 60 games)

1 Artis Gilmore 1981 1986 6
2 Charles Barkley 1987 1991 5
3 Tyson Chandler 2007 2013 5
4 Wilt Chamberlain 1967 1973 3


The common theme you see in a lot of these efficiency stats, is that role players who have a lot of baskets created for them are near the top. However, with Barkley you have a player near the top in all these effiency stats, who at the same time was one of the single most double teamed players in nba history.



Charles Barkley playoff games
Charles Barkley – 1 (50 point playoff game)
Charles Barkley- 5 (40 point playoff game)
Charles Barkley- 28 (30 point playoff games)

For comparison Kevin Garnett has only scored 30 points in 9 playoff games.

The more I watch of Barkley and Garnett, the more I'm convinced that the gap between them offensively, is almost as substantial as the gap between them defensively. With Barkley you literally have a 6'4 power foward, scoring the ball with Shaq level efficiency during his prime.

For four straight years during his prime he led the league in True shooting percentage.

1986-1987- .660
1987-1988- .665
1988-1989- .653
1989-1990- .661


For comparison sake, Kevin Garnett does not have a single season of 60 TS% or better. Whiles Barkley is ranked #9 in career TS% and has a career TS% of .6120, Kevin Garnett is ranked #193 all time with a TS% of only .5472 for his career.


And he was doing this whiles being one of the most double teamed players in nba history.There's literally less than a handful of players in nba history who have been able to score as much at as high an efficiency against both playoff and regular season defenses as Charles Barkley. The only guys who have, have already been voted in as top 5 players in this project.

Also I forgot to add on, just how good Charles Barkley was on the offensive glass. For three straight seasons he led the league in offensive rebounds

1986-1987- 390 offensive rebounds
1987-1988- 385 offensive rebounds
1988-1989- 403 offensive rebounds

For his career he's ranked 6th all time in offensive rebounds

1. Moses Malone -7382
2. Artis Gilmore - 4816
3. Robert Parish -4598
4. Buck Williams- 4526
5. Dennis Rodman-4329
6. Charles Barkley- 4260

This is even more impressive considering he only played a 15 year career, and a lot of those were after his body broke down.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#51 » by Purch » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:55 pm

Note the per/ts stats are a bit out of date, because I used this in 2014.. and since the Curry's basiclly had all his mvp level efficent seasons
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#52 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:10 pm

Purch wrote:Let me repost this

I think its about time to talk about Charles Barkley

The only player to win an Mvp over Jordan in his absolute prime.

Charles Barkley

Career Leaders and Records for Offensive Rating

1. Chris Paul 122.44 (G)
2. Reggie Miller 121.48 (SG)
3. Magic Johnson* 120.79 (PG-Point F)
4. John Stockton* 120.55 (PG)
5. Kiki Vandeweghe 119.49 (SF-SG)
6. Sidney Moncrief 119.40 (CG-PG)
7. Charles Barkley* 119.31 (PF)

SHOT MADE/MISS DIFFERENTIAL STAT-
(minimum 15,000 shot attempts)


1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +3,367.5
2. Shaquille O'Neal: +3,200.5
3. Wilt Chamberlain: +1,865
4. Charles Barkley: +1,434

NBA & ABA Career Leaders and Records for Player Efficiency Rating


1. Michael Jordan* 27.91
2. LeBron James 26.91
3. Shaquille O'Neal 26.43
4. David Robinson* 26.18
5. Wilt Chamberlain* 26.13
6. Dwyane Wade 25.65
7. Bob Pettit* 25.35
8. Chris Paul 25.22
9. Tim Duncan 24.84
10. Neil Johnston* 24.63
11. Charles Barkley* 24.63

NBA & ABA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Player Efficiency Rating


1. Michael Jordan* 28.59
2. George Mikan* 28.51
3. LeBron James 26.31
4. Shaquille O'Neal 26.12
5. Hakeem Olajuwon* 25.69
6. Tim Duncan 25.43
7. Dirk Nowitzki 24.75
8. Tracy McGrady 24.66
9. Dwyane Wade 24.56
10. Charles Barkley* 24.18

Nba all time career leaders in True Shooting %

1. Cedric Maxwell .6294
2. Artis Gilmore .6227
3. Dave Twardzik .6184
4. James Donaldson .6177
5. Adrian Dantley .6166
6. Tyson Chandler .6166
7. Reggie Miler .6139
8. Charles Barkley .6120

Most seasons with a 2 point percentage of 60% or more ( playing at least 60 games)

1 Artis Gilmore 1981 1986 6
2 Charles Barkley 1987 1991 5
3 Tyson Chandler 2007 2013 5
4 Wilt Chamberlain 1967 1973 3


The common theme you see in a lot of these efficiency stats, is that role players who have a lot of baskets created for them are near the top. However, with Barkley you have a player near the top in all these effiency stats, who at the same time was one of the single most double teamed players in nba history.



Charles Barkley playoff games
Charles Barkley – 1 (50 point playoff game)
Charles Barkley- 5 (40 point playoff game)
Charles Barkley- 28 (30 point playoff games)

For comparison Kevin Garnett has only scored 30 points in 9 playoff games.

The more I watch of Barkley and Garnett, the more I'm convinced that the gap between them offensively, is almost as substantial as the gap between them defensively. With Barkley you literally have a 6'4 power foward, scoring the ball with Shaq level efficiency during his prime.

For four straight years during his prime he led the league in True shooting percentage.

1986-1987- .660
1987-1988- .665
1988-1989- .653
1989-1990- .661


For comparison sake, Kevin Garnett does not have a single season of 60 TS% or better. Whiles Barkley is ranked #9 in career TS% and has a career TS% of .6120, Kevin Garnett is ranked #193 all time with a TS% of only .5472 for his career.


And he was doing this whiles being one of the most double teamed players in nba history.There's literally less than a handful of players in nba history who have been able to score as much at as high an efficiency against both playoff and regular season defenses as Charles Barkley. The only guys who have, have already been voted in as top 5 players in this project.

Also I forgot to add on, just how good Charles Barkley was on the offensive glass. For three straight seasons he led the league in offensive rebounds

1986-1987- 390 offensive rebounds
1987-1988- 385 offensive rebounds
1988-1989- 403 offensive rebounds

For his career he's ranked 6th all time in offensive rebounds

1. Moses Malone -7382
2. Artis Gilmore - 4816
3. Robert Parish -4598
4. Buck Williams- 4526
5. Dennis Rodman-4329
6. Charles Barkley- 4260

This is even more impressive considering he only played a 15 year career, and a lot of those were after his body broke down.


Sir Charles is right up there with Adrian Dantley as the most efficient superscorer not yet selected; however, while you can get away with terrible defense sometimes as a wing or even a point, it's more damaging as a big and why he is behind Garnett, KMalone, and probably Bob Pettit on my list. His locker room issues are a real thing too, sliding him behind Dirk as well. So, he is probably 5th among the remaining 4's. I probably rank DRobinson, Moses, and Ewing ahead of him as well though Ewing I'd have to think about because of Barkley's playoff numbers.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#53 » by drza » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:13 pm

I'm in Vegas scouting the Summer League, and time is scant. As such, it'll be surprising if I'm able to make much time in the next few days. That said, I do want to continue the discussion on Garnett's playoffs performance.

Kevin Garnett playoff impact, background

*Box scores:
KG vs Bird, per 100 stats over prime seasons
Regular season
80 - 88 Bird: 30.9 pts (57% TS), 12.7 reb, 7.6 asts (3.9 TOs), 24.2 PER
99 - 08 Garnett: 30.2 pts (55% TS), 16.8 reb, 6.6 asts (3.7 TO), 25.5 PER

Playoffs
80 - 88 Bird: 28.4 pts (55.5% TS), 12.4 reb, 7.4 asts (3.7 TOs), 21.9 PER
99 - 08 Garnett: 29.5 pts (52.3% TS), 16.8 reb, 5.9 asts (3.9 TOs), 23.9 PER

Alright. So, there's been a lot of discussion about what level Garnett produced in the playoffs. I copied/pasted the reg/postseason prime numbers I posted last thread, and the per-100 usage isn't fooled by extra playoff minutes (someone suggested that as an issue before). Considering that a good chunk of those playoff games came in 2008, when his volume was down compared to his Minnesota years, I'd say that volume-wise there wasn't a whole lot of difference between regular and prime Garnett in the boxscores...almost the entirety of the postseason criticism that Garnett receives is due to this ~3 percent drop in scoring efficiency.

*SideShowBob has a very good post, heavily scouting based, about how Garnett's brand of offensive impact is largely independent of his scoring efficiency. His spacing, gravity and ability to initiate/facilitate team offense with his decision-making/passing are robust, and those methods have been shown to be strong methods for big men to have large offensive impact. http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44663914#p44663914

I went very in depth on Garnett's playoff performances from 1999 - 2002, illustrating (at times with vid caps) some of the offensive impact mechanisms that SSB describes. I also point out how these mechanisms contributed to stronger team offense. I look at his defensive match-up individually, as well as the team results, and point out some of his defensive impact with tangible results. http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=57346751#p57346751

In a conversation with penbeast, who believes that Garnett's scoring efficiency was hurting his team in the playoffs, I pointed out that early in his career/prime (e.g. pre-peak), over the 5-year stretch where Garnett's scoring efficiency dropped the most, his team was consistently outplaying-expectation vs tougher teams, and performing better in most cases than other teams with better regular season records. I point out that Garnett was the only starter on all of those teams, and that in some cases the supposed second star was also playing poorly on those teams. Thus, the most likely reason for the team playing above level is Garnett http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=57387248#p57387248

Kevin Garnett playoff impact, peak years

Numbers
2003 (per 100): 29.6 points (55.3% TS), 17.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, 1.8 steals, 2.0 blocks
2004 (per 100): 33.2 points (54.7% TS), 19.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 3.5 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 3.0 blocks
03/04 PO /100: 30.2 points (52.0% TS), 18.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 4.7 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 2.6 blocks

2003 on/off +/-: +23.6 per 100 possessions (highest ever recorded since have first data, 1994 - 2015)
2004 on/off +/-: +20.7 per 100 possessions
03/04 PO /100: +22.6 per 100 possessions (small sample size of 24 games -->"off" unreliable, but matches reg season)

2003 Timberwolves:
Offensive rating 106.1 (5th in NBA)

PG: Troy Hudson (14.2 ppg, 53% TS, 74 starts)
SG: Anthony Peeler (7.7 ppg, 50% TS, 39 starts) + Kendall Gill (8.7 ppg, 48% TS, 34 starts)
F: Wally Z (17.6 ppg, 57% TS, 42 sts);Trent (6 ppg, 55%TS, 22 sts); Joe Smith (7.5 ppg, 52%TS, 21 sts)
F: Kevin Garnett (23.0 ppg, 55% TS, 82 starts)
C: Rasho Nesterovic (11.2 ppg, 54% TS, 77 starts)

Team assist leaders: Garnett (6.0 apg, 2.8 TOs) and Hudson (5.7 apg, 2.3 TOs)

My scouting report:
Spoiler:
This was an interesting take on a unipolar offensive attack. The Timberwolves had lost incumbent starting point guard Terrell Brandon in the offseason to a career-ending knee injury, but he hadn't retired until his up-and-coming back-up Chauncey BIllups had already signed with the Pistons. Thus, the Wolves signed FAs Troy Hudson and Rod Strickland for a COMBINED $3M to run their PG slot. I thought that Strickland would win the starting gig, but he was too old and too injured and couldn't stay on the floor, which opened it up for Hudson. Hudson had been an undrafted player that worked his way up through the D-league (11.1 ppg, 3.6 apg career D-league averages) and earned his way into the NBA as a scoring spark-plug type off the bench. Entering the 2003 season, he had never been a full-time NBA starting point guard nor averaged more than 3.7 assists. Neither of the two shooting guards (Peeler or GIll) were ball-handlers either, nor were Wally Z or any of the other big men.

Thus, the '03 Wolves featured KG as a point-power forward. Garnett was the hub, with (in theory) shooters at the other positions. Wally Z was an elite shooter if you gave him any space, but he fancied himself someone that could work off the face-up more-so than "just" a spot-up shooter. Though his spot-up J was wet, he wasn't one to come off screens firing like Ray or Rip Hamilton. Rasho didn't have a lot of range at center, but he had soft hands and decent footwork and was a reasonable finisher. Hudson and Peeler were both undersized chuckers for their positions, but both had 3-point range and could get hot.

On most sets Hudson would bring the ball up the court, but usually the first pass was to KG (often at the elbow, on the box, or at the free throw line). KG would then be the primary decision maker in the play, initiating the set. If he drew direct defensive attention he was adept at finding the open shooter. If the defense wasn't compromised enough on the initial pass, the offense would generally progress to KG either posting (if the ball was on the weakside) or setting a screen for the guard up top. And of course, his primary go-to move from either the box or the elbow was the turnaround jumper.

The other primary set was Garnett setting an on-ball screen for Hudson, and then either popping for a mid-range jumper or (occasionally) rolling. But those rolls rarely resulted in finishes because Hudson wasn't adept at passing. The most common result when KG rolled was either a long Hudson J or a re-set.

The offense struggled in the first third of the season when Wally was injured, as the others weren't good enough options for opponents to have to respect. Plus, for a lot of that time the Wolves were starting KG at small forward with either Joe Smith or Gary Trent at the 4. Zero spacing. But once Wally came back it opened things up, and the Wolves finished that season on a pretty strong run (offensively and over-all).


In the playoffs the Lakers attacked the Wolves' offense by eliminating Wally. Rick Fox and Devean George) stayed in Wally's drawls everywhere he went, never sagging off of him under any circumstances. Then, the Lakers packed the paint elsewhere, with Shaq clogging the paint and Kobe helping off the Wolves' wings as needed to prevent KG from handling the ball in the interior. Oh, and Derek Fisher never went over the KG on-ball screen out-top on Hudson. Ever. Example:

Hudson has ball, dribbling for 5+ seconds on wing looking for advantage. Garnett sets up for a pick, signals Hudson with arm to get his attention and tell him where to go.

Image

Kg's guy sticks to him on the pick. Hudson's defender goes under pick.

Image

Naked-open jumper for Hudson.

Image

The Lakers' defensive strategy that series seemed to be to let Hudson shoot as much as he likes, make it difficult on Garnett to operate from his favorite spots, and erase Wally with the theory that KG and Hudson couldn't outscore Shaq and Kobe in the course of a series. Example:

KG posts on block, Hudson enters ball to him.

Image

Play is for Wally to cut off Hudson pick, and for KG to hit him with dive pass to the rim. Wally and Hudson execute the pick and Wally cuts

Image

Hudson falls down, and both Lakers defenders go with Wally to make sure he doesn't get an open touch.

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Hudson gets up. Kobe drops off Wally and doubles KG on the block. But KG sees that Hudson is wide open

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Garnett sees him naked open, gets him the rock in rhythm for a wide-open look. Strings

Image

KG had a good run, and Hudson took advantage of the open looks to get hot so the offense actually worked reasonably in the playoffs. That loss was more about the Timberwolves' inability to stop Kobe and Shaq than it was their offense.

2004 Timberwolves:
Offensive rating 105.9 (5th in NBA)

PG: Sam Cassell (19.8 ppg, 57% TS, 81 starts)
SG: Latrell Sprewell (16.8 ppg, 49% TS, 82 starts)
SF: Trenton Hassell (5.0 ppg, 50% TS, 74 starts)
PF: Kevin Garnett (24.2 ppg, 55% TS, 82 starts)
C: Big Erv (1.9 ppg/55%TS/47 sts); Kandi (6.5 ppg/45%TS/25 sts); Madsen (3.6 ppg/51%TS/12 sts)

Team assist leaders: Cassell (7.3 apg, 2.7 TOs) and Garnett (5.0 apg, 2.6 TOs)

My scouting report:
Spoiler:
This was a completely overhauled offense from the previous year, with Cassell and Sprewell bringing an order of magnitude more to the table. However, in some ways this was the more top-heavy offense than the year before because only 3/5 of the starting line-up had anything to contribute on offense. Ervin Johnson, Michael Olowokandi and Mark Madsen took turns at center and none of them could score at all (that 45% TS for Kandi isn't a misprint). Similarly, Trenton Hassell had been cut the previous offseason by the lottery Bulls in part because he also couldn't score at all. He didn't have shooting range, and he was a terrible ball-handler.

Thus, opponents didn't even have to pretend to defend 2/5 of the Wolves' starting line-up and they couldn't provide any spacing or utility at all on offense. As such, the offense was heavily, HEAVILY reliant on the KG/Cassell/Sprewell trio. And actually, it was KG and Cassell that did the most heavy lifting. Sprewell in his youth had been a slasher, but by the 2004 season those days were mainly behind him. He took a lot of jumpers that year, with mixed results. He had 3-point range, but was streaky and downright poor on jumpers off the dribble. He could create a shot for himself, though, which was important and forced the defense to at least account for him.

But the stars of the show were Garnett and Cassell. The Wolves used primarily the same sets as they had in 2003, but having Cassell in Hudson's place changed the game. Whereas Hudson was streaky with longer shooting range, Cassell was metronome consistent with that mid-range J. Coincidentally, so was Garnett. So between the "elbow" and high post sets, the pick-and-pop, the KG post and the Cassell drive/post/pull-up J, the Wolves were able to get a good shot on pretty much every trip down the court. Cassell was also a much more savvy floor general than Hudson...essentially he was a point guard, which Hudson (and before that even Chauncey Billups) really hadn't been. This let Cassell be the primary decision-maker with Garnett shifting his ratio to more of a finishing role (while obviously still maintaining a large roll in generating offense for others). KG was even able to add some more "rolls" to the Pick-and-pop game that ended in alley-oops from Cassell.


In the playoffs Garnett was still ready to perform at max level, but Cassell had a sore hip early that bothered him more-and-more as time went by before eventually becoming debillitating against the Lakers in the WCF. This changed the entire dynamic of the Wolves' offense, because it eroded and eventually collapsed the Garnett/Casssell synergy. Cassell could still shoot when on the court, but he could no longer be as involved in running the show. The hip also seemingly bothered him some days more than others, leading to him having huge swings in production on a game-to-game basis (the opposite of his metronome self). Garnett found himself now with 2 complete offensive holes in the starting 5, but now an inconsistent (and eventually absent) 2nd option and a still streaky/more individual oriented 3rd option in Sprewell. Defenses were able to focus more and more on him, while he had to take on more and more other responsibilities (epitomized by him running actual point guard for long stretches at a time). The offense was good enough that they were able to thrash the Nuggets and get by the Kings, but with Cassell able to only play in (realistically) two of the six WCF games, they just didn't have enough to get by the Lakers.

Conclusion In 2003 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Troy Hudson, Anthony Peeler, Wally Szczerbiak, KG, and Rasho and ran Garnett as a point-power-forward in a unique version of the big-man-with-4-shooters line-up...and finished with a top-5 offense. In 2004 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Trenton Hassell, KG, and Big Erv Johnson and ran Garnett as a bit more of a finisher in an offense with three contributors and two dead weights...and finished with a top-5 offense. Two different line-ups, playing a different role, Garnett was able to pull relatively un-talented rosters to excellent offenses. In the playoffs, when good teams could focus on them, Garnett still maximized every drop of what those teams were capable of producing in the postseason.

In the regular season for those two seasons, Garnett averaged 23.6 points on 55% TS. In the playoffs for those two seasons, Garnett averaged 25 points on 52% TS. Also, as pointed out above:

2003 on/off +/-: +23.6 per 100 possessions (highest ever recorded since have first data, 1994 - 2015)
2004 on/off +/-: +20.7 per 100 possessions
03/04 PO /100: +22.6 per 100 possessions (small sample size of 24 games -->"off" unreliable, but matches reg season)

Now, critics like Ardee will point out KG's scoring efficiency drop, and how that led to him having a 100 individual ORtg as estimated by basketball-reference's box score analysis, and claim this shows that he struggled on offense.

Someone like RebirthOfTheM will point out that the playoffs on/off +/- is a small sample, and therefore noisy.

Someone like Penbeast will say that Garnett's scoring efficiency DID go down, and that if the team's offensive efficiency went down, it's probably an indication that Garnett was struggling.

(And of course, all three of you should feel free to disagree if you wouldn't, in fact, say that. But you have, in fact, said similar things in the last couple of threads).

But me? I say, this is an extremely repeated issue, and the closer one looks, it is obvious that the +/- numbers are reflective. These were teams that NEEDED Garnett to play at mega-MVP level to be competitive (as evidenced by the regular season +/- numbers on much larger sample sizes) as well as the scouting that I provided...it was obvious, watching them, that they couldn't function high level without Garnett for any but short periods (thinking of 03 G3 where KG fouled out and team held win in OT).

In addition. SSB's skillset/impact post was true, and reflected clearly in scouting and existing video.

And while the playoff sample size is small, it matches PERFECTLY with the larger datasets from the regular season.

:shrugs: maybe you're not convinced. Maybe you'll never be. But Garnett really WAS having postseason impacts, consistently, that were as large as any we saw from anyone else in his generation. Garnett's on/off +/- scorers from 2002 - 2004 were on the order of what we saw from the scores of 2000 - 2004 Shaq, Cleveland LeBron and 2001 - 03 Tim Duncan...AND NO ONE ELSE! It's not a fluke, it's not small sample noise, that had the consensus 3-best players of the generation...AND GARNETT...measuring out at this level of playoff impact. It's actually reflective of what happened.

You may not believe it. I can't make anyone believe anything they don't want to. But the information is clear in the videos, it's clear in the qualitative analysis, and it's clear in the quantitative analysis. At least to me. Garnett was a playoffs monster.

Vote: Kevin Garnett
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#54 » by ardee » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:13 pm

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#55 » by rebirthoftheM » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:13 pm

eminence wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:.


Just to get a rough look to see if top ORAPM guys are a bit more consistent than the top DRAPM guys. Single year NPI. '97 through '00 from Ascreaming, rest from JE.


Wanted to point out here that I wasn't making a blanket claim about no abberrations existing with elite offensive players. I noted in my OP:

I contend that you will never find aberrations of the sort seen with KG's defensive indicators as anchor in 05 & 06 like you would see with an elite offensive player when healthy, in prime form and as the offensive anchor.


So for example, Kobe during the Shaq years was neither the offensive anchor nor was the team centred/built around him. Shaq was the center of gravity and therefore his impact was more pronounced. This of course muted how visible Kobe's offensive impact numbers were. The Lakers during the Shaq years tended to back Shaq up with awful and sometimes undersized bigmen, which of course led to massive drop offs when he was out. Conversely, the Lakers tended to have better relatively better talent the guard/wing spots.

This is why I tend to ignore Kobe's offensive impact numbers during the Shaq years. Kobe was no better in 06 than he was in 03, and I have no doubt that if you transport the 03 Kobe onto the 06 Lakers, he'll do just as well, perhaps even better because of the better athleticism.

In 05, Kobe missed 16 games and was suffering from plantar fasciitis. He lost all confidence in his jumper at some point in the season, leading to a massive increase in his banked shot attempts.

06-09 Bryant, which is pretty much prime Kobe as a #1 and healthy put up some very consistent ORAPM stuff. By 10, he suffered some health problems halfway through the season and was looking bad till they drained his knee in the PS.

KG meanwhile was the anchor of the wolves for all those years. Only his teammates changed. Yet his impact was far more pronounced in some years than others, and still no real explanation for this.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#56 » by rebirthoftheM » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:17 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:Wasn't referring to team overall ratings because this is evidently not fair. The KG defensive indicators I was referring to was his DRAPM (NPI and also Doc's RAPM stuff that Drza has referred to) as well as how his teams fared defensively with him on/off in 05 & 06. These are stuff the KG crowd really base their argument on, as limited game-tape analysis would not give their arguments the same level of authority.

You would expect to see major separation in the Wolves D in 05 & 06 when KG was on versus when he was off, like you saw in other years, yet this is patently not so. You would also expect to see better DRAPM figures. Which begs the question... what went wrong? Did KG stop playing high value D? IMO from all i've read and see, this is not so. Which then leads to the conclusion... there's only so much an elite defender, even a big can do, in the modern era to control his teams defense.


It's possible KG did not play as good defense in 05 and 06. Like for some reason Kawhi had less impact on defense this year, it doesn't feel like he was trying less on that end, but the evidence is against him.


This is of course very possible, but nobody can provide concrete information as nobody seemingly remembers the dumpster 00 Wolves.

I wouldn't have 100% confidence in those figures though. They only tell you about what type of shifts are going on... they don't tell you why. The "why" factor is what is needed to know whether KG fell off or not during those years. Again, it is possible his D was worse, but I just can't envision a situation in which KG rates out as a negative defender in his prime. Makes no sense to me.

Fundamentals21 wrote:

He supposedly ranked #1 by defensive +/- in 2007. I think in an overall sense it's okay. The 05 team wasn't bad but was result of a strong conference. You can say it was equivalent of Kobe's 06 team - they were only 1 win apart. KG was voted in as being Top 3 in the RPOY threads for 05. Tim Duncan and Steve Nash's MVP year were the only ones ahead.

Kobe's 04 and 05 sequence wasn't all too special and you can maybe counter that with KG's 06, 07.

I am a pretty big supporter of Kobe's offensive prime value - which I think is amongst the very best ever. That being said, Kobe falls short to KG in peak by a good amount. I didn't think Kobe's 08 and 09 were nearly as impressive as KG's 03 and 04 and I think most would agree.


You misunderstand me. I wasn't actually bashing KG in 06 and 07 for his defense. I was using it as an example of the limitations on a defensive player to control his teams defense, or should I say, a non-elite rim protector like KG. The general vibe I've got from KG fans is that he was playing high level D those years, which opens up this point.

04 & 05 Kobe were def downs years with Kobe. But unlike 02, 04 & 05 Kobe was not in the best of shape. 04 Kobe of course came off shoulder surgery and missed 15+ games. He didn't look like the same dude in 03. And in 05, plantar fasciitis struck again and his jumper was broken for half the season (for reference, Look at TD's reg. season in 06- he fell off too because of it).

I'm trying to judge these dudes in their primes when they are healthy. KG didn't really suffer injuries in 05. and he played most games in 06.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#57 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:18 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
What is surprising to me is that Mel Daniels has more MVP Shares than Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Garnett for the simple fact that his ABA career is included


It shouldn't be. Mel was the best player on the best team in the ABA; the Pacers won more ABA titles than anyone else. Do you have to discount those titles because they were in the mid-ABA, a league that was still a level below the NBA? Sure. But Hakeem's teams, despite his playoff numbers being outstanding, only went deep in the playoffs once before his two title runs and without his playoff flair, he was just in the mix with the Admiral (who was superior regular season performer) and Ewing, not standing out from them. His rep didn't really explode until his 1994 title run.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#58 » by ardee » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:18 pm

I am voting Kobe here. Be warned, this is an extremely long post. A look at his relevant career: 1999-2013:

Early years and emergence as a superstar: 1999-2003

1999: This is an underrated year to kick things off. 20-5-4 on +3.8% TS and being one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He played all 50 games in the shortened, sped-up season and given the fact he was relatively green, did all right in the Playoffs. Got an early taste of the Spurs, whom he would do nasty things to for the next 10 years on a regular basis. He was probably about as good as maybe 2013 Paul George in this year.

2000: Played the sidekick role perfectly to one of the GOAT peaks. Averaged 23-6-5 on +2.4% TS in a very slow and inefficient era. Doubled up as one of the top perimeter defenders in the league: it's hard to call anyone but Payton definitely better. He torched the Kings in the first round to 28 ppg on 50% from the floor. This was the only series that went the distance so they definitely needed it. In the next round he locked up Jason Kidd: badly. The guy had one good game where he shot 8-13, other than that he went 1-6, 5-9, 1-9, and 3-13. Along with a 25% TOV. Kobe was a beast on defense that year. We all know his heroic games 6 and 7 performances against the Blazers. The Finals were poor, admittedly, but the ankle injury is obvious, and he still won the Lakers a game by himself in game 4 OT.

Overall, I'd say this is on par with any Pippen year outside of '92, '94, and '95. The only players I'd definitely take ahead of him that year were Shaq, Duncan, Malone, KG and Mourning.

2001: The birth of superstar Kobe. I feel everyone knows how good his Playoffs were that year, but his regular season is underrated. Especially in the start of the season, he was outplaying Shaq. Shaq was having trouble with fouls and free-throw shooting (REALLY bad, was going through a sub 40% stretch), so Kobe took over early and averaged 32-5-5 on a 117 ORtg for about 30 games, while Shaq was at about 24-13-4 on 106 ORtg. For the first half of the season before the AS Break, it's arguable Kobe was the best player in the league, considering if you remember Kobe was still ELITE on defense that year.

He then began suffering some niggling injuries, and the team suffered. Then Shaq got his groove back, and once Kobe was healthy as well the team was clicking on all cylinders. They were both more or less on cruise control against the Blazers, and then took turns dropping 40/15 games on the poor Kings. Kobe had his best ever series against the Spurs, and was 32-7-6 on 121 ORtg against the entire Western conference. He really was playing better than Shaq at that point. If someone wants to use the Finals gap (Kobe still did play well after game 1, 27-9-6 on 55% TS) to rank Shaq ahead for the whole Playoffs, I guess its fair, but Kobe WAS the driving force for the offense for the majority of the Playoffs for the best Playoff team ever.

He was undoubtedly second to only Shaq that year. I can't see any reason to rank Duncan over him that year, not when Duncan had a real solid team around him with a D-Rob who led the league in WS/48, and got so badly trounced and destroyed by the Lakers.

2002: A bit of a down-year for him. He still had a good regular season, 25/6/6 on a 112 ORtg, but didn't hit the heights of 2001. Worth noting he had to carry the team more with Shaq missing 15 games. The supporting cast was pretty poor by that point. Fisher played the whole season for a change, but Grant was gone, Horry was aging, and the Lakers were dependent on guys like Samaki Walker and Devean George for reliable contributions. It was impressive the way Shaq and Kobe got the team to a title that year. Kobe was the best player in a beatdown of the Spurs and MVP Duncan, and against the Kings he put up 31/11/6 in games 6 and 7, him and Shaq dragging the Lakers back from the abyss. He also had his best Finals of the Shaq era, 27/6/6 on 62% TS against the best defensive team in the league.

I'd rank Shaq/Duncan over him (hard choice between those two that year), and I can see some kind of argument for Garnett but don't buy it. This was the best supporting cast KG ever had before 2004, and they still finished with a below average defense and got roasted by the Mavs. I'm not seeing the impact that year. In 2003 I'll rank KG ahead because of his improved offensive game and he really did do less with more. This year I think Kobe's value as an offensive constant able to put consistent pressure on the defense. beats out whatever KG was doing.... especially since I really don't like his defense that year. I have no clue what 2002 KG was doing against the Mavs, it looked like he was playing some kind of crazy one man zone. Furthers my point I made earlier that Minny KG is overrated on defense. So, Kobe is third.

2003: One of the best years of his career. Perfect storm, his all-around game really came together. His 3-point shot was like a pull-up 5 footer at that point, had it almost on automatic. He averaged 28-8-7 for the first 40 games, almost LeBron-like. He really had to carry a pretty awful team for some time with Shaq out. Still, the team was dysfunctional and plodding by the half-way point, 19-23 through 42 games. Phil asked Kobe to take a bigger role in the offense, and he did. 41-5-3 on 59% TS over the next 14 games, leading the Lakers to a 12-2 record over that stretch, putting them over .500 for good and into the thick of the Playoff seedings. He closed the year out with several more monster games, including the 55 point one against Jordan with 9 threes, 42 in the first half.

At the close of the regular season, I'd say Kobe was right there with Duncan and KG for the best player in the league. He was very effective against the Wolves, but I will admit that the injury + shot selection a little out of control in the Spurs series harmed the Lakers. Still, if Horry's shot had gone in in game 5, Kobe would have successfully made up for it all by leading the Lakers back from 25 down, and was anyone stopping a 4th straight title then?

I have him 3rd this year, behind Duncan and KG. Shaq and McGrady battling it out for 4th/5th. I can't see Shaq over him this year, not when the Lakers season turned around after it was KOBE who took a bigger role and put the team on his back.

So far, we're looking at a very good sidekick year where he was in the 6-7 range in the league, and 3 top 3 years, one of which he was the second best player in the league.

The in-between years: 2004-2005

Going onto the rest of his career:

2004/2005: The two worst years of his prime, I'm clubbing them together. 2004 in particular really smarts. He's coming off an epic season that propelled him into the MJ discussion, and now his raw numbers and efficiency drop across the board, plus he misses 17 games. The raw numbers are explainable, he was now splitting possessions with three other HOFs, and it's possible that all of them were affected by a system that just did not fit the roster very well. Still, it was a notch below '01 and '03, and even '02. He still kept it up defensively though. He had a terrible Rockets series efficiency-wise, but then killed the Spurs (30/6/6 over the four comeback games). Average against the Wolves and had the worst series of his career in the Finals. He played well defensively though, locking down Rip, converse to Shaq who killed it offensively and was a sieve on defense. I place equal responsibility on those two for the Finals loss. In any normal year, it'd be enough for me to rank both out of the top 5, but this was such a weak year that after KG/Duncan I have to rank Shaq and Kobe at nos. 3 and 4. I'll say this, Kobe is probably the weakest number 4 as far as I can remember, in 2004.

2005 is an underestimated year. 28-6-6 on 56% TS, 109 On-Court ORtg with a truly terrible supporting casts. I've seen several nonsensical posts about how good guys like Brian Grant and Chucky Atkins were and it makes me shake my head. If Kobe and Odom had been healthy they'd have still made the Playoffs (32-29 through 61 games), but Rudy's retirement and the injuries just really took their toll. Kobe still performed well individually, started the season averaging 29-7-7 with a bunch of triple doubles in the first 30 games, with the Lakers at 16-12. I still have no problem ranking him possibly near the end of the top 10, this was a very strong year for the league. Nash, Duncan, KG, Dirk, Wade, Shaq, McGrady, and Stoudemire would all be over him.

Now we enter Kobe's true prime. Right now we have a top 2 year, two top 3 years, a top 4 year (admittedly very weak), and two years where he's close to the bottom of the top 10. Not bad for a pre-prime guy.[/spoiler]

The volume years: 2006/2007

2006: What a season. What a player. I'm going to leave this to one of the best posters to have ever been active on this on the board, ShaqAttack, because he had a GOAT level post on '06 Kobe.

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:In hindsight, I think Nash was a good choice for 2005, though I was in the "Shaq was robbed" crowd at the time. However, I don't think Nash was the right choice in 2006. I'd go with Kobe in 2006.

First I will say that since the MVP is the closest things the NBA has to a best player award, I try to keep best player in mind to some degree, though of course, I don't always think it should go to the best player since games played and record are factors. But to me, 2006 was the most obvious year he was the best player in the league. I think he was the best in '07 as well, but you could at least make the case for Duncan in '07 and Paul in '08.

Anyway, not only were Kobe's individual feats exceptional in 2006, but they led to the Lakers overachieving and exceeding most expectations following a 34-48 season. Phil asked Kobe to carry the offense because many of the players didn't know the triangle and probably due to their lack of talent as well, and he did so in a remarkable way.

Warning, this will be a LONG post since I will look over their entire supporting casts.

Kobe only had one other player on the roster you could call a legit NBA starter, and that was Lamar Odom who was inconsistent throughout the first half. Odom averaged just 14/9/5 on 45% shooting and just 53 TS% in the first half, though Kobe still carried the Lakers to a .500 record at 26-26 while averaging 35/5/4 on 44/34/84 shooting and 55 TS%. Odom was obviously a good player, but he shouldn't be your second best player by a huge margin as he was on the 2006 Lakers when he was relied on to play 40.3 mpg. We saw how valuable Odom could be when he became the 3rd guy after Gasol was acquired and he was noticeably more comfortable playing his game. His versatile skill set can obviously be an asset with his strong rebounding, ball-handling skills at 6'10" and the ability to get the rebound and create or finish the fast break by himself. This was also the last year Lamar played a lot of the 3 which had been his position as a young player with the Clippers and when Phil tried Odom in the Scottie Pippen point forward role with mixed results, though passing has always been one of Lamar's strengths and he did lead the Lakers with 5.5 apg while averaging just 2.7 turnovers. Lamar did have talent as a scorer as evidenced by his transition game, he could be a threat to create off the dribble, had the length to finish, and while I wouldn't say he was ever a good shooter, he did shoot 37.2% on 3s in 2006 while making one per game. However, Odom couldn't go right which made him predictable, as mentioned, he wasn't a great shooter, and perhaps most importantly, he lacked the consistent focus and aggressiveness to be a really good scorer so scoring really wasn't his forte as evidenced by the fact that his season high was 27 points in 2006. However, Odom became more consistent late in the year and played like a borderline all-star averaging 16/9/6 on 53% shooting in the second half as well as 43% on 3s and 60 TS%. Kobe also raised his game during this time averaging 36/5/5 on 46/36/87 shooting and 57 TS% as the Lakers went 19-11, a 52 win pace. Pretty impressive to win at that pace with just one legitimately good, but not great teammate.

As for the rest of the team, they had Smush Parker starting at PG and playing 33.8 mpg. Smush was a bit of a surprise for LA this year, but to put things in perspective, despite being just 24 at the time, Smush didn't even last 2 more years in the NBA. Then there was Kwame Brown whose only legitimate asset was his post defense, and he can only be described as a liability at the offensive end. Of course there's the infamous small hands which prevented him from being a reliable catch and finish player around the rim, one of the more basic skills asked of a big man offensively, his footwork and shooting touch were horrible leaving him without a single decent post move, he was a terrible free throw shooter at 54.5% and he could get rattled very easily. Chris Mihm was another starter for most of the year, and while he had a decent offensive skill set, he wasn't much of a defender or rebounder, and the Lakers played their best ball by far after Mihm's injury so he wasn't an impact player. Devean George was one of the few holdovers from the champion Lakers, and while he was a decent defender, he was a poor offensive player who didn't shoot particularly well at just 40 FG% and 31.2 3P% and couldn't create. Then there was Luke Walton whose only real skill was passing. Brian Cook's only value could be as a stretch 4, but he wasn't a good defender, rebounder or post player. Finally, Sasha Vujacic was in the rotation getting 19 mpg despite the fact that he shot a horrendous 34.6% from the floor for the season and even his 3 point shooting was underwhelming at 34.3%.

That's the team Kobe made 7th in scoring and 8th in offensive rating, and I'd bet they were near the top in the second half when Odom finally played more consistently.

Nash's Suns were obviously a more potent offense, and they were 1st in scoring and 2nd in offensive rating, but they had a lot more talent to work with, and had a team who not only fit well in D'Antoni's system, but played off of Nash well as almost all of them were dangerous 3 point shooters, slashers or good open court players. Shawn Marion had a much better year than Odom and made the all-nba 3rd team. Marion averaged 22/11 on 53% shooting with 2 spg, 1.7 bpg and just 1.5 turnovers per game. Obviously, Marion benefited from playing with Nash since his strengths offensively were his finishing in the open court, his slashing and he liked the corner 3, but Marion was already a 20 ppg scorer before he played with Nash so Nash just made him more efficient. Of course, Marion's versatility, particularly defensively was very valuable as well. Boris Diaw was also voted the Most Improved Player as he averaged 13/7/6 on 53% shooting. Diaw has always been a great passer, he had a nice post game, made his mid-range shots, and despite playing a different style, he gave the Suns something similar to what Odom gave the Lakers with his versatility. Diaw was a forward who had entered the league as a guard with the Hawks and was often the Suns' biggest player on the court as the de facto center while being an excellent secondary facilitator. Diaw also didn't start the year as a starter, but played his way into that role and like Odom, got better as the year went on averaging 16/7/7 on 57% shooting in the second half. Nash also got a great year out of Raja Bell who in addition to his defense, shot lights out from 3. No question he capitalized on Nash's passing, but you still have to make the shots, and Bell did just that averaging 14.7 ppg while making 2.5 threes per game while shooting 44.2%, which was 5th best in the NBA, and he was 3rd in made 3s with 197, just behind Gilbert Arenas who only made 2 more, but took one more game to do it. Bell was also 3rd in eFG% at 56.3%. Leandro Barbosa was one of the fastest players in the league and averaged 13 ppg while coming off the bench most of the year. He complemented his speed with a very dangerous 3 point shot as evidenced by his 44.4 3P%, which was 3rd best in the league and his 55.8 eFG%. They also had Tim Thomas late in the year, and he was always a talented offensive player at 6'10" who averaged 11 ppg in just 24 mpg for them while shooting 43% on 3s and had even more shooters in Eddie House and James Jones who averaged between 9-10 ppg, shot about 39% on 3s, made 1.5 of them per game and did it in just 17.5 and 23.6 mpg, respectively. To round out the cast was Kurt Thomas who was one of their few big men, but a good defender and rebounder with a consistent mid-range shot who was definitely better than any of the Lakers' big men excluding Odom. Not surprisingly, Phoenix finished first at 39.9% and led the league with 837 made 3s, 212 more than the Warriors who were 2nd.

Given the enormous disparity in the talent, I'd argue the Lakers having the 8th best offense was more impressive than Phoenix having the 2nd best offense. Kobe's cast was really bad lacking a legit 2nd option, being surrounded by fringe players other than Odom, lacking shooters as evidenced by the fact that they were in the bottom half in 3P% and a pretty mediocre defense(which was actually virtually identical to the Suns' defense statistically.) The only thing you can really say is that the Lakers were a solid rebounding team outrebounding opponents by 2 rpg. Nash's cast certainly lacked size, but there's no question they had loads of offensive talent with more shooters than anyone could hope for, versatile forwards like Marion and Diaw and if you look at their sixth man Leandro Barbosa, he was definitely a more dangerous scorer than any of Kobe's teammates.

There's so many things to look at, but aside from how impressive it is to lead your team to a very productive offensive season while being asked to play 41 mpg and take over 27 shots per game, just look at how each of these team's offenses fared with and without the stars. The Suns offensive rating was a phenomenal 114.8 with Nash on the court, but still respectable without him at 106.4, which was just above league average. Meanwhile, the Lakers had an excellent 112.6 offensive rating with Kobe on the court, but it was horrendous with him off the court at 93.7. Finally, it's worth noting that Nash played 35.4 mpg, while Kobe played 41 mpg as mentioned before. What it comes down to is there's no question in my mind that Kobe was a better player and had a better season, and there's also no question in my mind that the disparity in team success was not nearly as great as the disparity in talent, and Kobe's success was more impressive considering their situations.

The more I think about this season, the more I'm leaning towards it as Kobe's peak over 2008.


Historical stuff from Bryant. This is a year, offensively, I'd rank only slightly below peak Magic/Bird/Jordan/LeBron. He was at his peak athleticism wise, jumper was there, he could basically do whatever he wanted to any defense he wanted.

Undoubtedly the best in the league. To me, when I was watching back then, it wasn't even close. Only Dirk really had an argument. Once Odom started playing at a decent level for the last 30 games, Kobe had the Lakers at a 111.5 ORtg, 0.1 behind the Mavs for the league lead. Kobe was anchoring a league-best offense with ONE other serviceable offensive player. This says it all I think.

2007: The most efficient season of Kobe's career. It also gave a good glance of the game-management and facilitation skills that Kobe would show in 2008-10.

Through 39 games, he had the Lakers at 26-13. In fact, they were 14-6 through the first 20 games before Odom got hurt. Odom was playing like a near AS, averaging 18-9-5 on good efficiency. This should really dispell notions that Kobe at that era couldn't play with good teammates. Walton was benefiting too, averaging 12-5-4 on 50-43-75 through that good start. Kobe was playing steady basketball as the captain of a ship that was cruising along at a 112.2 ORtg, with 28-6-6 on 59% TS.

Then the injuries really took their toll. As soon as Odom returned, Walton got injured. And Odom was playing far worse than he was pre-injury. Kobe continued to play his part-facilitator role, but the team was just too bad for it to be effective. With Kobe, a broken Odom, and a D-League roster, the Lakers stumbled to a 7-18 record over the next 25 games. They were going to be out of the Playoffs, until Phil told Kobe to completely take over the offense. He did, to the tune of 40-6-5 on 58% TS. The Lakers managed to crack .500 for that stretch at 9-8, showing the difference between Kobe taking a step back (like his detractors love him to) and actually taking control of the offense on a terrible team.

His Playoffs were good by his own standards, but not spectacular. His team was so outmatched there really wasn't much he could do. It is memorable for that 45-6-6 game 3 when he threw the kitchen sink at the Suns and somehow came away with a win despite the Lakers getting 86% of their points from him, Odom and Kwame.

He probably was better than in '06 when he really got going, but for the whole season, probably just slightly worse. I'd say he was the best in the league again, Nash and Duncan were a bit better than in '06, but his main contenders in '06 were Dirk and Wade and both of them had much weaker years.

The MVP and repeat years: 2008-10

2008: The promised land. People love to claim that it was just Pau that turned the franchise around but Kobe had the Lakers at 25-11 through 36 games with his second option, Bynum, averaging 13-10. That's one of the worse second options in the league, and Kobe still had them comfortably in the middle of the WCF standings, flitting between the 2-4 seeds.

The Bynum injury, by all rights, should have killed the Lakers season. Possibly scared of the prospect of being the second option again, Odom went into a funk and averaged 12-10 on 42% shooting over the next 11 games. Kobe refused to let the team slip, going into supernova, averaging 34-8-6 on 61% TS in the same stretch, somehow keeping Fisher, Sasha, Turiaf, Farmar and Walton at a 6-5 record until the front office found a way to replace Bynum's production.

The Gasol trade was the best thing to happen to Kobe's career. It showed just how effective he could make a team with one other truly reliable offensive player. Kobe increased his efficiency, rebounding, facilitation and played better defense, with his volume remaining pretty much the same. Gasol's efficiency jumped up from 50.1% FG to 58.9% FG playing with Kobe, and the Lakers went 22-5 in the games that both played.

Overall, Kobe averaged 28-6-5 with elite defense, on 57% TS. The Lakers finished with a 7.3 SRS, and this was on a team with another truly reliable player for less than a third of the season. This was an underestimated carry job by Kobe. The Lakers could have slipped into oblivion at any time but he didn't let them.

The Playoffs were the cherry on the cake. ShaqAttack again:

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:
The Lakers were virtually unbeatable with Gasol at 22-4 excluding the 2-3 minute game and then dominated the West including the defending champion Spurs in 5 during the WCF. The Spurs were no joke either since they had Duncan who was only slightly past his prime and 2 other all-star caliber players in Parker and Ginobili who was at his peak and probably the 2nd best shooting guard behind only Kobe that year. What was so impressive about Kobe's playoff run is that he almost seemed to be toying with his West opponents as he averaged 31.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 5.8 apg on 50.9 FG% in 15 games during the 3 West rounds playing that team-oriented style. Despite the finals loss, I still consider this Kobe's best playoff run. He had that game vs Denver when he shot 18/27 overall, 5/9 on 3s and 8/9 from the line for 49 points, and while I haven't seen the game since, I remember him being so hot that it looked like he could have had 60+ early had he pushed the issue, but LA won easily by 15 points.



32-6-6 on 61% TS against 3 top 6 defenses and 50 win teams. The Finals against the Cs was underwhelming, but as good as the Lakers were the Celtics were just so loaded they were clearly outmatched. I'm not one of those Laker fans that think Bynum would've made a difference. The big 3 were playing at a historic level at that point. Hold it against him if you wish, but remember, make sure to hold KG's failures against him too when his team is lacking in comparative talent.

I have Kobe no. 1 again, the last year he will be at this spot. I do think he was the best overall player for '06-'08, and in terms of three-year peaks it's not quite in the '91-'93 MJ, '63-'65 Russell or '66-'68 Wilt level but I think it matches up fairly well with guys like Bird and Hakeem.

2009: I summed this up with a post in a thread I made some time ago:

ardee wrote:I was watching parts of the Lakers '09 Playoffs and it just occurred to me that 2009 doesn't get brought up enough when talking about Kobe's best seasons, and indeed some of the best seasons by a wing, ever.

The Lakers had a 10 game lead on one of the toughest conferences in history. Not to say Kobe didn't have a great cast, but this was a 7.8 SRS team and he was +11.1 on/off for the +/- guys. For an elite team, it doesn't get too much higher, because they aren't going to be putrid when the star is off, they wouldn't be elite then. His +116.1 On-Court ORtg is among the highest we've seen from a player not on the Suns dynasty.

He was also still quite elite on defense, probably the last year he was consistently up there.

The Lakers cruised to a 37-9 record, and then Bynum got injured. Many people feared a slowdown, but Kobe took on the extra load and averaged a 32-5-5 over the next 12 games, leading the Lakers to a 11-1 record. That stretch shows he was still absolutely capable of scoring how many ever points he needed to, just like '06 and '07, he just took it easy to get the team-mates into the game as well.

That stretch put the Lakers in the driving seat for the conference and they cruised from then on. They beat every other contender, home or away. Snapped the Celtics' 19 and 12 game winning streaks, and the Cavs' 23 game home winning streak. Kobe kept them focused as hell, this was probably when his team-mates' fear of him transformed into a determination to please. His leadership had real, tangible impact on the Lakers that season.

Then in the Playoffs, the Lakers stomped. The Houston series was a minor blip where they were losing focus from time to time, but every time they lost they responded with a blowout. After that 118-78 result, did they ever look like losing that series? Kobe was still consistent enough in that series, it was the supporting cast who couldn't keep it together mentally. He did, however, along with Phil, keep getting them back on track and winning all the statement games. He did so while dealing with Battier and Artest tag-teaming him on defense.

The Denver series was his magnum opus. Has anyone forgotten that 'bad mofo' face? Has anyone forgotten all the insane shots he hit with a hand in his face, Dahntay and the other Nuggets playing picture perfect defense? Has anyone forgotten the way he pulled a team that was struggling to close game 1 to a victory by scoring or assisting 13 of the last 15 points? Has anyone forgotten that game 6 when he basically looked untouchable, going for a 35/10 and ripping the Nuggets to shreds while the Lakers won by 30? Has anyone forgotten the ridiculous 35/6/6 overall performance he put together?

I'm not saying he was better than LeBron that year, but this should be considered one of the best seasons by a wing ever. His numbers weren't as good as they used to be, but what was he supposed to do, put up nicer stats when he had Odom/Gasol and lose instead? He did everything his team needed him to, and when his guys were sagging, he picked up all the slack and dominated, as we saw in multiple stretches throughout the season.

Really, I think the only Playoff run by a wing definitely better than this (after Jordan) is '12 LeBron. What do you guys think?


LeBron was definitely better this year. No question in my mind. But Kobe was a deserved no. 2. I can get ranking Wade over him, but I think Kobe played just as well in the later Playoff rounds as Wade did in the regular season, and Wade really didn't have a good Playoffs at all.

2010: A very underrated year for Kobe.

This was the year he completed the development of his post-game, and it was more effective than Jordan's ever was. Here's Bill Simmons on Kobe during the first half of the season, a stretch when Bryant had the Lakers at 25-6 through 31 games (more than half of which Pau missed by the way), averaging 30-6-5 on 57% TS.

Bill Simmons wrote:
I can't remember anyone reinventing himself historically as well as Kobe did these past 16 months. The Olympics, then the 2009 Finals, then the media victory lap that everyone ate up … and then, when it seemed as if we were headed for a decline, he reinvented himself as the second coming of post-baseball Jordan and developed an even nastier, more physical post-up game than MJ had. I can't believe what I am watching. It's staggering. He's like a 6-foot-6 Hakeem Olajuwon. I went into this season thinking Kobe would be able to last just one or two more seasons at a high level; now I'm wondering whether he could play like this well into his late 30s. Why not? I mean, Karl Malone did it. Like Malone, Kobe is a workout freak who takes care of his body and seems predisposed to staying healthy, anyway. Malone averaged a 26-10 and made second-team All-NBA in the 1999-2000 season when he was 36 years old … and then he played four years after that. Kobe is only 31. Could he replicate Malone's longevity and consistency?



He did get injured later on, yes, no one is disputing that. But before that, he was playing as well as he ever had, and picked up at that level in the Playoffs. I don't know why people were shocked in the Playoffs, he played just as well in the first half... For 9 games before his injury, he averaged 37-7-5 on 58% TS!

I'm not going to lie and say the second half of the regular season was pretty. Coming out of the regular season one could argue he was behind LeBron, Durant and Howard all.

But then he went and had one of his best Playoffs ever. He still struggled with his knee for a bit at the beginning of the OKC series, but after game 5 had his knee drained and then ripped off an all-time hot streak. He averaged 31-7-6 on 59% TS over the last 18 games of the regular season. He was easily the best player in the Playoffs that year, and I think it should boost him over Durant and Howard. I'd still give LeBron the edge that year, with Kobe 2nd. Wade, Nash, Durant and Howard fight it out for spots 3-5.

He had that historic Phoenix series, averaging 34-7-8 on a 135 ORtg, 64% TS!!! People don't appreciate how dominant he was in that series.

His Finals got marred by game 7, but before that he was doing 30/7/4 on 56% TS. Against the kind of defense he was facing, that's remarkable to say the least.

It's hard to argue against what Kobe did in the Playoffs that year.

Overall, I think Kobe from 2008-10 was more impressive than second threepeat Jordan in the Playoffs... But that's just me.

________________________________________________________________________

I know that was a ridiculously long post, lemme give it to you in cliffs:

-2000 was a great second option year, comparable to prime Pippen. Got the Lakers out of several tight situations (game 7 Portland, game 4 Indy), and doubled up as the best perimeter defender in the league. Perfect second option to Shaq.

-2001: Underrated regular season, historical Playoffs. Carried the Lakers while Shaq was less than his usual self at the start, combined with him for the best run by a duo in NBA history in the Playoffs, was Jordan-esque in the WC Playoffs (32-7-6 on 60% TS).

-2002: Slightly underwhelming regular season but still solid. Killed the Spurs in the Playoffs, came up big in games 6 and 7 against the Kings with Shaq, and had the best finals of the threepeat part of his career.

-2003: Became a complete player. Arguably his best defensive year, added the 3 point shot. Had an all-time 35/40 point game streak to drag the Lakers back into Playoff contention

-2006/2007: All-time offensive years. Dragged garbage to top 7-8 offenses, and when Odom actually played well and gave him a good second option he took the team to the best offense in the league for that same stretch, in both seasons.

-2008: Peak year. Got his defense back. Showed that he could make a bad team decent as well as make a decent team elite, as soon as Pau arrived. What's impressive is the Lakers had a 7.3 SRS with Pau only playing 27 games for them that year. Historically dominant in the Playoffs.

-2009: lead one of the best Laker teams ever despite Bynum getting injured AGAIN, with Pau again his only real reliable teammate. Dominated in the Playoffs, had possibly his best series ever against Denver, and was decisive in the Finals against Orlando.

-2010: Killed it for the first two months in the regular season, clearly the second best player behind LeBron for that stretch. Developed the post-game. Slipped into injuries, but shook them off in the Playoffs to dominate again. Killed the Jazz and Suns, had a good series against Boston considering the level of defense he was facing.

-From 2000 to 2010, here's how I'd rank Kobe in the league year by year: 8, 2, 3, 3, 4, 9, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. Other than the blip of 2005, that is stunning consistency over a long stretch. Comparable to prime Bird easily.

-In terms of peak play, Bird was better at his absolute zenith, but Kobe gives you 7 years at that level: 2001, 2003, 2006-10, while Bird has 1984-88. The two extra years make a real difference, at that level.

I don't think I can do more talking about the meat of Kobe's career. I'll answer any questions anyone has, and expand more on 2011-13 later.

Vote: Kobe Bryant

2nd: Oscar Robertson
ardee
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#59 » by ardee » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:21 pm

On the offense vs. defense stuff, I think there is real merit to these arguments. You have multiple examples of defensive intensity in superstars waxing and waning. It is even noticeable in GOAT level guys like Wilt, Kareem and Shaq. I have been saying for a while that if you prize +/- stats, the reduced numbers for Garnett in 2005 cannot be ignored, but it gets handwaved by the Garnett fans.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #11 

Post#60 » by ardee » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:30 pm

eminence wrote:An MVP level player should have taken the '06 Lakers to the playoffs. I am beyond tired of the story that KG and Kobe's mid '00's casts were on the same level.


Don't worry, if all goes well, Kobe will win this thread and you won't have to hear about it (even though it's true, Garnett's cast didn't suck just because you wanted it to).

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