Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #53 (Dikembe Mutombo)

[LA Bird]

Where did you find these numbers?

Calculated it myself by aggregating regular season data from Feb 22 onward and playoffs data.

But where did you GET the regular season data? bbref doesn't have on/off data broken up by date [to my knowledge], unless a player switches teams: as with Mutombo. But even there the rs data they show includes (in the "OFF" data) possessions played by the team BEFORE he joined them.

Did you go thru the play-by-play log and tabulate each and every possession yourself?

Source data is from stats.nba.com but some of the stats for earlier seasons are not publicly accessible.

[pandrade83]

Neither was much of a ball-stopper who compelled his teammates to become spectators (this compared to Dantley, for example)....

I've forgotten if you posted statistical evidence to back up the ball stopper comment. I never really saw it for him. Wilt, yes . . . he frequently walked slowly up court after change of possession to conserve energy. Anthony Mason or Rod Strickland both used to annoy me by just standing in one place pounding the ball into the group waiting for someone to do something rather than creating themselves. But never really saw that with Dantley. He did have a large array of fakes and moves to work his defender so often didn't shoot immediately but that's true of almost any post scorer; how many times have we seen Dwyane Wade ball fake once, twice, even three times trying to get his defender to bite and gain the extra trip to the line. But AD is the only one I hear this about.

I don't have statistical evidence to support this other than to note (as I have previously, can repost if anyone wants) that the team offensive results and his apparent lift (or rather lack thereof in some years) are not what one would expect from his seemingly otherworldly efficiency while scoring in bunches. And the "ball-stopping" is something I observe (but which is also stated frequently, not only here, but by his contemporaries as well as by commentators during the games and so forth) which could possibly account for the lower than expected impact and team result.

Dantley could certainly work the baseline off-ball very well. But otherwise the go-to was just to give him the ball in isolation (sometimes in the post, but usually on the wing or sometimes top of key); and once received in that position there was VERY consistently a pause (2-4 seconds usually) where no one moves and they all just stand around and wait for Dantley to make his move. There's not too many people for whom I remember consistently seeing that pause.

Carmelo Anthony

[penbeast0]

OK, not seeing the pause when I watch videos but I was wondering if I had forgotten some of the anti-Dantley arguments. I agree about the surprising lack of lift for the offenses, it's why I switched off him for the alternate pick.

Between Reed and Mutombo, I want to go with Reed but just don't really see his statistical advantage as that strong and Mutombo's shotblocking and longevity are.

VOTE: Dikembe Mutombo

While I really do like Mutombo. At his best he's barely assured you of making the playoffs. The counter is say the 94 playoffs, but the regular season record backs my view.

In his atlanta days I'd feel pretty comfortable saying Mookie Blaylock was the better player. Even if you're not on board there, wasn't that team a lot more like say the 04 Pistons? And yet the "ben wallace" just wasn't good enough? This a guy who got out of the first round just 5 times (sounds better than I thought when I typed it) and only got out of the second round that on year in philly.

Now I admit I've been on Reed a while now, but I've wanted to warm to the defensive staples as I'm a defense guy. But the more I look and think about it. I'm more inclined to look at Ben or even Rasheed wallace over Mutombo. The only run I see moving him this high is 01 maybe and then the value you attribute to his rocket days. He was a value add there, but how much value do we add for that role?

After 02 we get 350+ games where he was an ok bench guy who had a few nice moments here and there. I don't want to ignore those years, but this is another case of longevity perhaps being overstated (much like Zo earlier).

At least for me I'll take Reed's first title run over those 350 games. And that I suppose is where maybe I'm different? But those playoff games to me were more valuable than 350 good off the bench defensive seasons, and a net "meh" offensive player (I'd say negative but we'll go with meh". And I guess that's the point I'd want to hear for those picking Mutombo on the runoff. And perhaps a bit about could he have been the second best player on a title team without the best player being WOW good (top 20 in our list)?

The problem I have with Reed is this. HE was a very good defensive player but doesn't have the rep for it (or the eye test) that Mutombo had. The extra value Reed has must come from his offense. His scoring is better but pace adjusted to the slower pace of Mutombo's day it isn't that impressive. His passing, despite the Knick's rep, statistically doesn't look that impressive and we know from lots of examples that weak passing centers are less impactful than you might expect from pure points/rebounds. And, you know I'm not a big 70s guy despite it being the only era my Bullets/Wiz were relevant ever.

[pandrade83]

With Reed I have 8 quality years (although the #'s are inflated by pace materially), a far superior peak and strong playoff performances.
Mutombo gives me 2 extra prime years, is clearly superior defensively but takes value off the table offensively.

I'm narrowly taking Reed. I know he played in a weaker era, but he could be a strong 1B on a title team. That's the actual result. I know Mutombo didn't play on the best teams, but he was the best player on some bad teams that didn't get anywhere near the playoffs. My ceiling based on actual results is a lot higher with Reed & I don't think that Mutombo improves my title odds enough for the extra 2 years to significantly move the needle.

Run-off Vote: Willis Reed

[trex_8063]

OK, not seeing the pause when I watch videos....

Don't know what to tell you. From the following game (same game I selected at random to I cite specific plays from when demonstrating reluctance to shoot from 20+ feet).....

Watch on YouTube

......I'll just take it in sequence and list what happens on each and every possession where Dantley touches the ball in the halfcourt setting (with the exception of one time where Rickey Green is coming to him outside the arc and sort of flicks it to him, and Dantley just hands it straight back as Green then passes by him):

7:21 - Dantley receives pass near right baseline, is IMMEDIATELY double-teamed. Passes out of double-team within 2-3 seconds.

9:12 - Receives pass on the right wing; holds the ball nearly 5 seconds before even making his first pump-fake. 6 seconds have transpired since receiving the pass before he finally makes his dribble-drive. The commentator remarks at this point about all the standing around that happens in the Jazz halfcourt (and this is the year of the single-best team offense Dantley anchored, fwiw).

9:46 - Receives pass out past left elbow, holds ball for just over 3 seconds before making a nice entry pass to Eaton for a score. ***I don't fault him this slight pause at all, btw; more on why below.

10:17 - Receives pass at top of key. Holds ball for four seconds before pump-fake, one dribble and pull-up.

11:13 - (commentator remarks at the start of this play how players are standing around again). Dantley receives pass at the top of the key, this time makes a quick move to the hole.

13:09 - Receives pass on right wing/elbow, holds for just 2 (or 2-3) seconds before making his drive.

22:06 - Receives pass on right elbow; holds for about 4 seconds before making dribble drive.

23:18 - Receives pass on left side of court; holds ball for 3-4 seconds as a sort of slow/loose double-team comes over before making a cross-court pass.

24:05 - Dantley receives inbound pass on right wing. Holds the ball for nearly 5 seconds before shooting 20-foot set shot (which the defense was goading him to take; to his credit he makes it).

27:36 - Dantley receives pass on right wing, holds for 3-4 seconds before passing to Kelly in the high post. Commentator again remarks about the lack of movement (and for the second time remarking that it's apparently something Frank Layden had been vocal about not wanting to happen: I bring that up wrt where to lay blame).


I'll stop there. But there's 10 plays (not cherry-picked, I simply took the first 10 times he got the ball in the halfcourt, from a game I'd previously selected at random), and it appears he holds the ball excessively in about 6 of the 10 plays. I'll not fault him at all for the plays at 7:21 (immediately double-teamed, passes out within 2-3 seconds), 9:46 (was just waiting for Eaton to get position---***wanted to comment more on this: we'll frequently see players with the ball on the perimeter holding the ball while they wait for a post player to establish position, or perhaps they're waiting on a backpick and cutter to happen, etc.....but that's generally not what is happening with these Jazz teams [as far as I can tell] when Dantley receives the ball outside; rather there's usually either no movement, or if there is it's just his teammates clearing out that side of the floor for him), 11:13 (makes a quick move), and 13:09 (makes his move within 2-3 seconds, so not excessive).
But is holding for ~4 seconds or more in the others, and no movement is happening (other than potentially teammates clearing out for him). He’s otherwise just sizing up, deciding what he wants to do while the defense can get itself adjusted.


This is a bit of a derail here, but that's what I'm seeing when I watch these old Jazz games.

[trex_8063]

I've forgotten if you posted statistical evidence to back up the ball stopper comment. I never really saw it for him. Wilt, yes . . . he frequently walked slowly up court after change of possession to conserve energy. Anthony Mason or Rod Strickland both used to annoy me by just standing in one place pounding the ball into the group waiting for someone to do something rather than creating themselves. But never really saw that with Dantley. He did have a large array of fakes and moves to work his defender so often didn't shoot immediately but that's true of almost any post scorer; how many times have we seen Dwyane Wade ball fake once, twice, even three times trying to get his defender to bite and gain the extra trip to the line. But AD is the only one I hear this about.

I don't have statistical evidence to support this other than to note (as I have previously, can repost if anyone wants) that the team offensive results and his apparent lift (or rather lack thereof in some years) are not what one would expect from his seemingly otherworldly efficiency while scoring in bunches. And the "ball-stopping" is something I observe (but which is also stated frequently, not only here, but by his contemporaries as well as by commentators during the games and so forth) which could possibly account for the lower than expected impact and team result.

Dantley could certainly work the baseline off-ball very well. But otherwise the go-to was just to give him the ball in isolation (sometimes in the post, but usually on the wing or sometimes top of key); and once received in that position there was VERY consistently a pause (2-4 seconds usually) where no one moves and they all just stand around and wait for Dantley to make his move. There's not too many people for whom I remember consistently seeing that pause.

Carmelo Anthony

Yeah, well, I'm not ready to give Melo support any time real soon either.

[trex_8063]

Deke vs Reed......

This is hard for me to go with Reed in total career value. I mean, I could buy that his definitively NON-prime years ('65, '66, '72-'74) provided more career value than Dikembe's definitively NON-prime years ('03-'09). But that's the smaller consideration vs prime years.
Do Reed's five prime(ish) seasons---which amounted to 395 rs games, 14,755 rs minutes----exceed what Mutombo did in his ELEVEN prime/near-prime seasons ('92-'02)----which amounted to 840 rs game, 30,612 rs minutes (and that includes a hold-out year)?

I just don't think so. Even if one thinks Reed was better in his prime (which I do), I just don't think it's by enough of a margin to outweigh the fact that Mutombo gives you LITERALLY more than twice as long of prime-ish level play. Total value accrued during respective primes is arguably not even all that close, imo.
Those other years shore up the difference a little, but not enough for me. It's very close, but I'm siding with Dikembe in this one.

Run-off vote: Mutombo

[trex_8063]

Thru post #47:

Willis Reed - 4 (pandrade83, Clyde Frazier, dhsilv2, fundamentals21)
Dikembe Mutombo - 4 (micahclay, LABird, penbeast0, trex_8063)


This runoff will conclude (assuming the tie is broken) at ~10:30pm EST.

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[dhsilv2]

Deke vs Reed......

This is hard for me to go with Reed in total career value. I mean, I could buy that his definitively NON-prime years ('65, '66, '72-'74) provided more career value than Dikembe's definitively NON-prime years ('03-'09). But that's the smaller consideration vs prime years.
Do Reed's five prime(ish) seasons---which amounted to 395 rs games, 14,755 rs minutes----exceed what Mutombo did in his ELEVEN prime/near-prime seasons ('92-'02)----which amounted to 840 rs game, 30,612 rs minutes (and that includes a hold-out year)?

I just don't think so. Even if one thinks Reed was better in his prime (which I do), I just don't think it's by enough of a margin to outweigh the fact that Mutombo gives you LITERALLY more than twice as long of prime-ish level play. Total value accrued during respective primes is arguably not even all that close, imo.
Those other years shore up the difference a little, but not enough for me. It's very close, but I'm siding with Dikembe in this one.

Run-off vote: Mutombo

Could I sell you on Reed's prime includes (era limited games which I'm not sure how to account for) some great playoff value, while Deke's is a bit more limited in value? I know for the most part we look at regular seasons, but deep playoff runs should get factored in to longevity.

[70sFan]

OK, not seeing the pause when I watch videos....

Don't know what to tell you. From the following game (same game I selected at random to I cite specific plays from when demonstrating reluctance to shoot from 20+ feet).....

Watch on YouTube

......I'll just take it in sequence and list what happens on each and every possession where Dantley touches the ball in the halfcourt setting (with the exception of one time where Rickey Green is coming to him outside the arc and sort of flicks it to him, and Dantley just hands it straight back as Green then passes by him):

7:21 - Dantley receives pass near right baseline, is IMMEDIATELY double-teamed. Passes out of double-team within 2-3 seconds.

9:12 - Receives pass on the right wing; holds the ball nearly 5 seconds before even making his first pump-fake. 6 seconds have transpired since receiving the pass before he finally makes his dribble-drive. The commentator remarks at this point about all the standing around that happens in the Jazz halfcourt (and this is the year of the single-best team offense Dantley anchored, fwiw).

9:46 - Receives pass out past left elbow, holds ball for just over 3 seconds before making a nice entry pass to Eaton for a score. ***I don't fault him this slight pause at all, btw; more on why below.

10:17 - Receives pass at top of key. Holds ball for four seconds before pump-fake, one dribble and pull-up.

11:13 - (commentator remarks at the start of this play how players are standing around again). Dantley receives pass at the top of the key, this time makes a quick move to the hole.

13:09 - Receives pass on right wing/elbow, holds for just 2 (or 2-3) seconds before making his drive.

22:06 - Receives pass on right elbow; holds for about 4 seconds before making dribble drive.

23:18 - Receives pass on left side of court; holds ball for 3-4 seconds as a sort of slow/loose double-team comes over before making a cross-court pass.

24:05 - Dantley receives inbound pass on right wing. Holds the ball for nearly 5 seconds before shooting 20-foot set shot (which the defense was goading him to take; to his credit he makes it).

27:36 - Dantley receives pass on right wing, holds for 3-4 seconds before passing to Kelly in the high post. Commentator again remarks about the lack of movement (and for the second time remarking that it's apparently something Frank Layden had been vocal about not wanting to happen: I bring that up wrt where to lay blame).


I'll stop there. But there's 10 plays (not cherry-picked, I simply took the first 10 times he got the ball in the halfcourt, from a game I'd previously selected at random), and it appears he holds the ball excessively in about 6 of the 10 plays. I'll not fault him at all for the plays at 7:21 (immediately double-teamed, passes out within 2-3 seconds), 9:46 (was just waiting for Eaton to get position---***wanted to comment more on this: we'll frequently see players with the ball on the perimeter holding the ball while they wait for a post player to establish position, or perhaps they're waiting on a backpick and cutter to happen, etc.....but that's generally not what is happening with these Jazz teams [as far as I can tell] when Dantley receives the ball outside; rather there's usually either no movement, or if there is it's just his teammates clearing out that side of the floor for him), 11:13 (makes a quick move), and 13:09 (makes his move within 2-3 seconds, so not excessive).
But is holding for ~4 seconds or more in the others, and no movement is happening (other than potentially teammates clearing out for him). He’s otherwise just sizing up, deciding what he wants to do while the defense can get itself adjusted.


This is a bit of a derail here, but that's what I'm seeing when I watch these old Jazz games.

How do you compare AD "holding the ball" habit to things many of today guards (Harden for example) does? I mean, we've seen so many times a guard doing 20 dribbles in one place without creating any danger. I've rarely seen criticism when a guard tries to beat his man in almost 10 seconds but Dantley was worse because he stands instead of dribble?

I don't want to discredit your point, but for me Dantley is blamed for many things other players are not. Probably because his stats are more impressive than other great scorers. I say it again: Pistons would have crushed Lakers with Dantley anyway in 1989 and he would be labelled as game master instead of team cancer. He's extremely underrated nowadays, probably 99% of NBA fans think that he's far worse than Dominique Wilkins or even Melo when the fact is that he crushes Anthony and isn't really any worse than Nique. In fact, he showed that he could adapt to different situations - he was PF for Lakers even with such a heigh disadvantage, then he was the main offensive threat in Jazz and he finally adjusted to smaller role in Pistons, where he was extremely effective and very important for them.

[trex_8063]

Deke vs Reed......

This is hard for me to go with Reed in total career value. I mean, I could buy that his definitively NON-prime years ('65, '66, '72-'74) provided more career value than Dikembe's definitively NON-prime years ('03-'09). But that's the smaller consideration vs prime years.
Do Reed's five prime(ish) seasons---which amounted to 395 rs games, 14,755 rs minutes----exceed what Mutombo did in his ELEVEN prime/near-prime seasons ('92-'02)----which amounted to 840 rs game, 30,612 rs minutes (and that includes a hold-out year)?

I just don't think so. Even if one thinks Reed was better in his prime (which I do), I just don't think it's by enough of a margin to outweigh the fact that Mutombo gives you LITERALLY more than twice as long of prime-ish level play. Total value accrued during respective primes is arguably not even all that close, imo.
Those other years shore up the difference a little, but not enough for me. It's very close, but I'm siding with Dikembe in this one.

Run-off vote: Mutombo

Could I sell you on Reed's prime includes (era limited games which I'm not sure how to account for) some great playoff value, while Deke's is a bit more limited in value? I know for the most part we look at regular seasons, but deep playoff runs should get factored in to longevity.

It's true he had some awesome playoff runs.
Where longevity is concerned, Dikembe had 101 playoff games (66 of those during his prime(ish) years), 3,117 playoff minutes. Reed had a total of 78 playoff games (50 of them in his prime(ish) seasons), 2,641 playoff minutes.

wrt the "era-limited games" factor you mentioned for the post-season, a longer playoff structure does not GUARANTEE that the Knicks get more playoff games within a given year. And further there are certain years in which it wouldn't have mattered if they did where Reed individually is concerned: take '70 for instance. Suppose in winning their third playoff series that merely got them the conference title (not the NBA title)? If another series had been required, Reed likely would have missed it in its entirety due to injury (and then perhaps the Knicks don't win it, and how would that effect his legacy, etc??).


I still feel the longevity edge is too substantial. Look at it this way if it's helpful: I'd probably take those five good years of Reed's ('67-'71) over eight seasons of prime Mutombo ('92-'99). Even nine seasons ('92-'00) is perhaps a wash----I feel this is being more than fair to Reed, to say his five seasons is equal to nine of prime Mutombo; Dikembe was no slouch here: were talking about someone who [in those nine seasons] was six times an All-Star, won 3 DPOY's, 4 All-Defensive honors, one All-NBA 3rd team----and note he did that in one of the most top-heavy [at the C position] eras of all-time----and once also received a tiny amount of consideration in the MVP vote.

So when we then add in a 10th near-prime Mutombo season ('01), I feel the scale tipping at least a little toward Mutombo. When we then add yet another prime-ish season ('02) on top of that, I feel it's clearly in Mutombo's favour as far as total career value added.

I'll give Reed the small edge for the rest of their [non-prime] years, but it's not quite enough for me to bridge the gap. Very close, and I don't fault anyone picking Reed in this runoff; I'm just not quite comfortable with it, and I don't feel it would accurate reflect the "meaningful longevity" value system that I adhere to.

[trex_8063]

.

I do intend to reply to your comments/concerns, but not here. I feel I've derailed the convo toward Dantley enough. This will certainly be resurrected when he's a more prominent candidate. I've filed your reply away for later.

[70sFan]

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I do intend to reply to your comments/concerns, but not here. I feel I've derailed the convo toward Dantley enough. This will certainly be resurrected when he's a more prominent candidate. I've filed your reply away for later.

True, he's not candidate in this thread anymore. You are right. I hope you won't leave me without reply. It's fascinating to defend one of my favorite players of all time who is not liked by general public

[Dr Positivity]

Tough choice. I'll go with Mutombo's longevity advantage here too. Reed peaked in weak era I can buy that the difference between Mutombo and Reed on defense may have been pretty significant

Vote Mutombo

[iggymcfrack]

I think Mutombo was legitimately elite enough at his peak (as RAPM backs up) that it's actually really close between he and Reed for peaks which means with the longevity is a clear decision:

Vote: Dikembe Mutombo

[penbeast0]

...


This is a bit of a derail here, but that's what I'm seeing when I watch these old Jazz games.

Ok, now I see what you are saying; I was looking more at how much time on the shot clock it took for Dantley to get off a shot or make a pass. TY

[trex_8063]

Thru post #56:

Willis Reed - 4 (pandrade83, Clyde Frazier, dhsilv2, fundamentals21)
Dikembe Mutombo - 6 (iggymcfrack, Dr Positivity, micahclay, LABird, penbeast0, trex_8063)

Very near the 24-hour mark on the runoff, and the count is thus. Calling it for Dikembe. Will have the next thread up in a moment.

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