RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #59

[trex_8063]

Hey Trex, I know that I have been MIA when it comes to this project, but I'd like to cast my vote in this one (if that's ok with you).

My first pick is Harden

My second choice is Dantley

As great as Dantley was at efficient scoring, and damn he was great at that, Dantley didn't give you anything else besides that. On the other hand, Harden gives you that efficient scoring along with great facilitating and good rebounding. Neither is known for defense so I give neither the edge in that department. Lastly, from watching both players, I never got the impression that Dantley's scoring lifted the team's performance like Harden's does.

That's fine if you want to jump back in. But as this is the runoff, you only pick ONE. So just want to verify that Harden is your pick, and also that you noted it's a 3-way runoff which also includes Vince Carter (since you made no mention of him in the above post).

[mikejames23]

Runoff Vote: James Harden

I had stated before that I felt Harden was best player avail. and was getting closer to the point where I'd ignore his longevity. He's doing enough to warrant himself as a yearly MVP candidate for some time, and the '14, 15, '17 respective years were very very good years in my eyes. He has done so with relatively large avg. talent. Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Beverly weren't the kind I'd consider for the shaping of a 55 W Ballclub. In '15 he overcame a 3-1 deficit vs the Clippers, and that was no easy feat either. Even as we speak he figures to be in MVP conversations (okay, long way to go this year, but still). He has some ways to go in terms of climbing the all time W/S comparison lists, but is closing in on guys like Iverson, who I would've voted here. His yearly W/S right now is closest to a Jerry West or Steph Curry type which is way way above the kind of guys we're discussing as of now. His BPM is also nuts (though there's some inflation there for modern day guys). The only thing that maybe slows down his ascent to the Top 30 or so are the various rule changes taking place to affect his game some.

Dantley, Carter. I wasn't going to vote either in until the mid to late 60's. Possibly later with Dantley. I have always been weirdly suspect of him and what he achieved with his teams. Dantley is probably the posterboy of why you can be a very efficient high scorer and still not a superstar.

Carter mostly won me over with his longevity and willingness to accept lower roles. This makes me feel differently about his entire career, mentality and approach to the game. There is a chance Carter may have been able to fit a team like SA and Detroit perfectly, but never really got the opportunity. In this case he might've been a multiple time champion. However, I can't take him over a guy I expect that is on a brilliant, brilliant career trajectory, which is Harden.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #41:

Adrian Dantley - 4 (dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
Vince Carter - 3 (trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)
James Harden - 3 (PockyCandy, iggymcfrack, pandrade83)


Will try to at least narrow this runoff down to 2 candidates in ~4-5 hours.

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[dhsilv2]

Runoff Vote: James Harden

I had stated before that I felt Harden was best player avail. and was getting closer to the point where I'd ignore his longevity. He's doing enough to warrant himself as a yearly MVP candidate for some time, and the '14, 15, '17 respective years were very very good years in my eyes. He has done so with relatively large avg. talent. Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Beverly weren't the kind I'd consider for the shaping of a 55 W Ballclub. In '15 he overcame a 3-1 deficit vs the Clippers, and that was no easy feat either. Even as we speak he figures to be in MVP conversations (okay, long way to go this year, but still). He has some ways to go in terms of climbing the all time W/S comparison lists, but is closing in on guys like Iverson, who I would've voted here. His yearly W/S right now is closest to a Jerry West or Steph Curry type which is way way above the kind of guys we're discussing as of now. His BPM is also nuts (though there's some inflation there for modern day guys). The only thing that maybe slows down his ascent to the Top 30 or so are the various rule changes taking place to affect his game some.

Dantley, Carter. I wasn't going to vote either in until the mid to late 60's. Possibly later with Dantley. I have always been weirdly suspect of him and what he achieved with his teams. Dantley is probably the posterboy of why you can be a very efficient high scorer and still not a superstar.

Carter mostly won me over with his longevity and willingness to accept lower roles. This makes me feel differently about his entire career, mentality and approach to the game. There is a chance Carter may have been able to fit a team like SA and Detroit perfectly, but never really got the opportunity. In this case he might've been a multiple time champion. However, I can't take him over a guy I expect that is on a brilliant, brilliant career trajectory, which is Harden.

Are you saying harden has done enough or that you're forecasting Harden's career? I mean tomorrow he could tear something and never play again which at least for me is how I view current players, that they'll never play again. Not sure how others are doing it of course.

[Outside]

Runoff vote: Vince Carter

My reasoning isn't about Carter's pluses but is more about the minuses of the other two in the runoff.

Harden is an excellent offensive player whose skills on that side of the ball should be enough to get him in. However, I can't vote for him for three reasons: defense, playoff performance, and the way he's drawn fouls.

I can forgive players who conserve energy on the defensive end because they expend so much on offense, but Harden's defense is beyond atrocious.

Harden's postseason numbers look good as raw numbers, but he has repeatedly underperformed at crucial points in the playoffs:

-- He was bad in the 2012 finals -- 12.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.6 ast, 37.5 FG%, 31.8 3PT%.
-- 2015, game 6 of the semifinals against the Clippers, with the Rockets down 3-2 and facing elimination, and down 19 points with 2:46 left in the 3rd, the Rockets staged a miracle comeback to stay alive and turn the series. It was the pivotal moment for the Rockets, and Harden was on the bench for almost all of it. He was -20 for the game.
-- 2015, game 2 of the conference finals versus the Warriors, with 7 seconds left and Houston down by a point, Harden dribbles into the frontcourt and inexplicably passes the ball to a trailing Dwight Howard, who hot-potatoes it back to Harden, who stumbles and loses the ball.
-- 2015, game 3 versus the Warriors, with his team down 0-2, he was a no-show at home in game 3, shooting 3-16 with 3 rebounds and 4 assists.
-- 2015, game 5 versus the Warriors, he shot 2-11 with 12 turnovers, breaking the record for turnovers in a playoff game.
-- 2017, conference semifinals versus the Spurs, he performed well below his RS averages with 24.5 pts, 9.7 ast, 4.7 reb, 41.4 FG%, and 30.8 3PT%.
-- 2017, game 6 versus the Spurs, with Kawhi out, Harden was an inexplicable no-show -- 10 points, 2-11 FG, 7 ast, 3 reb, 6 tov.

Then there's the way he's drawn fouls. Getting to the line is an important skill, and little tricks and "gamesmanship" has been part of the game forever, but what Harden has done is take advantage of the rules to draw fouls while not making a basketball play. Play the game and make basketball plays, don't pull this kind of cheap stunt and make it a central part of your game. Other players felt compelled to do the same because the referees were rewarding it, and the league in turn if forced to adjust the rules and the interpretation of the rules to get rid of this play. Others may not see this as a negative like I do, but it's not a basketball play.

For Adrian Dantley, he was a skilled scorer and great at drawing fouls (pushed the line, but compared to Harden, he generally drew fouls making basketball plays). Where I fault him is as a ball-stopper who relied on hero-ball and limited the ceiling on his teams. The fact that Detroit trading him away for Mark Aguirre is what pushed them over the top to win two titles is not in Dantley's favor.

I would've preferred other candidates at this point, but given the choice, Vince Carter gets my vote by process of elimination.

[70sFan]

Was watching Dantley v. Bird in those Piston/Celtic matchups and Dantley actually outplays Bird on both sides of the floor from just the eye test without looking at numbers. He has Bird looking really clueless on defense, sometimes with his back turned to the play as Dantley (his man) scores.

As well as playing stellar defense on Larry, particulary in 1988 ECF. I watched the whole 1987 ECF a few months ago and I've been watching 1988 ECF recently as I've been doing AD videos on my YT channel. Dantley played extremely well in both series and he gave Bird more troubles than probably anyone I've seen him against.

[pandrade83]

Runoff vote: Vince Carter

My reasoning isn't about Carter's pluses but is more about the minuses of the other two in the runoff.

Harden is an excellent offensive player whose skills on that side of the ball should be enough to get him in. However, I can't vote for him for three reasons: defense, playoff performance, and the way he's drawn fouls.

I can forgive players who conserve energy on the defensive end because they expend so much on offense, but Harden's defense is beyond atrocious.

Harden's postseason numbers look good as raw numbers, but he has repeatedly underperformed at crucial points in the playoffs:

-- He was bad in the 2012 finals -- 12.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.6 ast, 37.5 FG%, 31.8 3PT%.
-- 2015, game 6 of the semifinals against the Clippers, with the Rockets down 3-2 and facing elimination, and down 19 points with 2:46 left in the 3rd, the Rockets staged a miracle comeback to stay alive and turn the series. It was the pivotal moment for the Rockets, and Harden was on the bench for almost all of it. He was -20 for the game.
-- 2015, game 2 of the conference finals versus the Warriors, with 7 seconds left and Houston down by a point, Harden dribbles into the frontcourt and inexplicably passes the ball to a trailing Dwight Howard, who hot-potatoes it back to Harden, who stumbles and loses the ball.
-- 2015, game 3 versus the Warriors, with his team down 0-2, he was a no-show at home in game 3, shooting 3-16 with 3 rebounds and 4 assists.
-- 2015, game 5 versus the Warriors, he shot 2-11 with 12 turnovers, breaking the record for turnovers in a playoff game.
-- 2017, conference semifinals versus the Spurs, he performed well below his RS averages with 24.5 pts, 9.7 ast, 4.7 reb, 41.4 FG%, and 30.8 3PT%.
-- 2017, game 6 versus the Spurs, with Kawhi out, Harden was an inexplicable no-show -- 10 points, 2-11 FG, 7 ast, 3 reb, 6 tov.

Then there's the way he's drawn fouls. Getting to the line is an important skill, and little tricks and "gamesmanship" has been part of the game forever, but what Harden has done is take advantage of the rules to draw fouls while not making a basketball play. Play the game and make basketball plays, don't pull this kind of cheap stunt and make it a central part of your game. Other players felt compelled to do the same because the referees were rewarding it, and the league in turn if forced to adjust the rules and the interpretation of the rules to get rid of this play. Others may not see this as a negative like I do, but it's not a basketball play.

For Adrian Dantley, he was a skilled scorer and great at drawing fouls (pushed the line, but compared to Harden, he generally drew fouls making basketball plays). Where I fault him is as a ball-stopper who relied on hero-ball and limited the ceiling on his teams. The fact that Detroit trading him away for Mark Aguirre is what pushed them over the top to win two titles is not in Dantley's favor.

I would've preferred other candidates at this point, but given the choice, Vince Carter gets my vote by process of elimination.

On the foul drawing component - it makes me like him less subjectively and I hate watching him. He's my least favorite elite player in the league. But objectively, it generally adds to his effectiveness and I'm trying to be objective about this process.

[mikejames23]

Runoff Vote: James Harden

I had stated before that I felt Harden was best player avail. and was getting closer to the point where I'd ignore his longevity. He's doing enough to warrant himself as a yearly MVP candidate for some time, and the '14, 15, '17 respective years were very very good years in my eyes. He has done so with relatively large avg. talent. Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Beverly weren't the kind I'd consider for the shaping of a 55 W Ballclub. In '15 he overcame a 3-1 deficit vs the Clippers, and that was no easy feat either. Even as we speak he figures to be in MVP conversations (okay, long way to go this year, but still). He has some ways to go in terms of climbing the all time W/S comparison lists, but is closing in on guys like Iverson, who I would've voted here. His yearly W/S right now is closest to a Jerry West or Steph Curry type which is way way above the kind of guys we're discussing as of now. His BPM is also nuts (though there's some inflation there for modern day guys). The only thing that maybe slows down his ascent to the Top 30 or so are the various rule changes taking place to affect his game some.

Dantley, Carter. I wasn't going to vote either in until the mid to late 60's. Possibly later with Dantley. I have always been weirdly suspect of him and what he achieved with his teams. Dantley is probably the posterboy of why you can be a very efficient high scorer and still not a superstar.

Carter mostly won me over with his longevity and willingness to accept lower roles. This makes me feel differently about his entire career, mentality and approach to the game. There is a chance Carter may have been able to fit a team like SA and Detroit perfectly, but never really got the opportunity. In this case he might've been a multiple time champion. However, I can't take him over a guy I expect that is on a brilliant, brilliant career trajectory, which is Harden.

Are you saying harden has done enough or that you're forecasting Harden's career? I mean tomorrow he could tear something and never play again which at least for me is how I view current players, that they'll never play again. Not sure how others are doing it of course.

Yeah, saying he's done enough. I supported Reed and would've supported Cowens, both whose prime ended early - ages 28 and 31. So even if Harden has some sort of great injury and returns as maybe half of himself, he's done just fine. He's #30 all time in MVP shares, which indicates he's already accomplished a good amount. He's very clearly in a category of very very special players that have all been voted in some 25 spots ago and now I'd say we can accept him being 28 years old with this list going in. For some perspective, Kobe was voted in #23 in 06, and Harden's in a similar place on his career path right now.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #48:

Adrian Dantley - 4 (dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
James Harden - 4 (fundamentals21, PockyCandy, iggymcfrack, pandrade83)
Vince Carter - 4 (Outside, trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)


Quite a pickle here. We don't often get more than 12 votes either, but I'm hoping some "infrequent fliers" will make appearances in the next couple hours to at least provide me with a means of narrowing down to two candidates.

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[dhsilv2]

Runoff Vote: James Harden



Dantley, Carter. I wasn't going to vote either in until the mid to late 60's. Possibly later with Dantley. I have always been weirdly suspect of him and what he achieved with his teams. Dantley is probably the posterboy of why you can be a very efficient high scorer and still not a superstar.

Carter mostly won me over with his longevity and willingness to accept lower roles. This makes me feel differently about his entire career, mentality and approach to the game. There is a chance Carter may have been able to fit a team like SA and Detroit perfectly, but never really got the opportunity. In this case he might've been a multiple time champion. However, I can't take him over a guy I expect that is on a brilliant, brilliant career trajectory, which is Harden.

Are you saying harden has done enough or that you're forecasting Harden's career? I mean tomorrow he could tear something and never play again which at least for me is how I view current players, that they'll never play again. Not sure how others are doing it of course.

Yeah, saying he's done enough. I supported Reed and would've supported Cowens, both whose prime ended early - ages 28 and 31. So even if Harden has some sort of great injury and returns as maybe half of himself, he's done just fine. He's #30 all time in MVP shares, which indicates he's already accomplished a good amount. He's very clearly in a category of very very special players that have all been voted in some 25 spots ago and now I'd say we can accept him being 28 years old with this list going in. For some perspective, Kobe was voted in #23 in 06, and Harden's in a similar place on his career path right now.

Not questioning your logic, just wanted to clarify what you were saying.

[Outside]

On the foul drawing component - it makes me like him less subjectively and I hate watching him. He's my least favorite elite player in the league. But objectively, it generally adds to his effectiveness and I'm trying to be objective about this process.

I understand that others won't hold that against him, and for me, it's the least significant of the three negatives I pointed out -- playoff performance is probably first, with lack of defense close behind, and the foul-drawing antics a distant third.

I acknowledge a high level of subjectivity in my rankings, and to me, even a completely stats-based approach incorporates subjectivity in the weighting applied to various components. From my perspective, I give bonus points (not a lot, but something) to players who forced changes in the way the game is played or to the rules.

Examples are Mikan, Russell, Wilt, and Curry, all of whom forced changes to the court (width of the key for Mikan and Wilt), the rules (Wilt in particular), and the way the game is played (all of them). All of them were important change-agents in the evolution of the game, and they did it through the excellence of their play, to find new ways to play that made the game better and fulfill its potential. Harden's foul-drawing tactics, on the other hand, are the opposite of that, exploiting flaws in the rules and officiating, and his tactics definitely didn't move the game forward or to some higher plane.

In my view, I'm just docking Harden a few points in the same way that I give those other guys a few points. Not major, just a nudge.

[dhsilv2]

On the foul drawing component - it makes me like him less subjectively and I hate watching him. He's my least favorite elite player in the league. But objectively, it generally adds to his effectiveness and I'm trying to be objective about this process.

I understand that others won't hold that against him, and for me, it's the least significant of the three negatives I pointed out -- playoff performance is probably first, with lack of defense close behind, and the foul-drawing antics a distant third.

I acknowledge a high level of subjectivity in my rankings, and to me, even a completely stats-based approach incorporates subjectivity in the weighting applied to various components. From my perspective, I give bonus points (not a lot, but something) to players who forced changes in the way the game is played or to the rules.

Examples are Mikan, Russell, Wilt, and Curry, all of whom forced changes to the court (width of the key for Mikan and Wilt), the rules (Wilt in particular), and the way the game is played (all of them). All of them were important change-agents in the evolution of the game, and they did it through the excellence of their play, to find new ways to play that made the game better and fulfill its potential. Harden's foul-drawing tactics, on the other hand, are the opposite of that, exploiting flaws in the rules and officiating, and his tactics definitely didn't move the game forward or to some higher plane.

In my view, I'm just docking Harden a few points in the same way that I give those other guys a few points. Not major, just a nudge.

I honestly almost voted him here on the foul drawing alone. It's amazing to watch, especially when they show them in slow motion. Not really a fan of it when I'm having a beer or 6 and watching a game, but the game film is mind blowing. He'll set a guy up for the foul 10 moves before he finally makes the leap into the guy. And if we gets the rules changed...all the better. They're stupid rules, but I love how he throws players off balance and forces them into a no win situation.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #52:

Adrian Dantley - 4 (dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
James Harden - 4 (fundamentals21, PockyCandy, iggymcfrack, pandrade83)
Vince Carter - 4 (Outside, trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)


Stalemate still; really hoping some notified participants will show up soon to break this tie in some way that I can at least narrow the run-off.

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[janmagn]

Vote: Adrian Dantley

In my opinion he has the best peak here, although you can make a case for either one of Harden or Carter. Dantley has 11 seasons scoring over 20 points per game, showing that he had also decent longevity. He was really close at winning the championship, and if the Pistons win that game 7 in 1988 he would've probably won the Finals MVP. I can't say that neither Harden nor Carter were that close at a championship, let alone FMVP. He's got 4 seasons over 30ppg on a great effiecency, showing his incredible peak.

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

[trex_8063]

Thru post #54:

Adrian Dantley - 5 (janmagn, dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
James Harden - 4 (fundamentals21, PockyCandy, iggymcfrack, pandrade83)
Vince Carter - 4 (Outside, trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)


According to our protocol updates from several weeks ago, we can use number of 2nd votes received (if needed) to whittle things down for a runoff to two candidates. As I noted for the preliminary count in post #34, Vince Carter did receive one 2ndary vote (whereas the other two did not). However, it was not useful to us at that time, as that still left a tie for 2nd place between Harden and Dantley. But as that rule can now be of use to us here, I'm going to utilize it as a means of narrowing the runoff down to two candidates: Dantley is in (as the leader in runoff votes), and the one 2ndary vote will push Carter just ahead of Harden. So it's now just between Dantley and Vince:

Adrian Dantley - 5 (janmagn, dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
Vince Carter - 4 (Outside, trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)


If your name is not shown here, please indicate your pick between these two and reasons why. Would like this extended runoff to conclude within 24 hours OR LESS.

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[iggymcfrack]

When janmagn posted saying that Dantley's peak was better than Harden's I was gonna try and rebut that and went to look it up and while I still think Harden's is better, I was actually surprised how close it was. Dantley's efficiency really is unbelievable at his peak. Janmagn's point that Dantley could have won FMVP in 1988 is an excellent one as well, and looking over that series, I think it's very legitimate. If he really did guard Bird well in the playoffs when it really mattered, that's a major feather in his cap too.

Carter was a very good player for a number of years, but he was never really at that elite game-changing level. When he was really at his peak in Toronto, he only ever won one playoff series, and he didn't really elevate the Nets when he went to New Jersey either. I mean, don't get me wrong, he was very good, and I think he certainly could have enjoyed good team success as the top option in a better situation, but he doesn't have anything that compares to Dantley in '88. I guess '06 would be the closest thing as he actually did have 2 really good series there, but losing to young D-Wade in 5 in the second round doesn't quite cut the mustard.

Also think it's telling that even though Carter played 400 more games and 9000 more minutes than Dantley, Dantley still has a 134-122 edge in win shares. Therefore:

Runoff vote: Adrian Dantley

[E-Balla]

I think its absurd Dantley is even being mentioned. Read through the last few threads and saw exactly zero good arguments as to why anyone should believe he had a large impact on the game. I've been reading every once in a while and I've disagreed with the consensus here a ton but Dantley over Carter and Harden (and everyone knows I'm not even that big on Harden) is kinda crazy.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #57:

Adrian Dantley - 6 (iggymcfrack, janmagn, dhsilv2, penbeast0, Clyde Frazier, Joao Saraiva)
Vince Carter - 4 (Outside, trex_8063, Dr Positivity, LABird)


Will give this perhaps 3-4 more hours to see if any more wish to be heard.

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[dhsilv2]

When janmagn posted saying that Dantley's peak was better than Harden's I was gonna try and rebut that and went to look it up and while I still think Harden's is better, I was actually surprised how close it was. Dantley's efficiency really is unbelievable at his peak. Janmagn's point that Dantley could have won FMVP in 1988 is an excellent one as well, and looking over that series, I think it's very legitimate. If he really did guard Bird well in the playoffs when it really mattered, that's a major feather in his cap too.

Carter was a very good player for a number of years, but he was never really at that elite game-changing level. When he was really at his peak in Toronto, he only ever won one playoff series, and he didn't really elevate the Nets when he went to New Jersey either. I mean, don't get me wrong, he was very good, and I think he certainly could have enjoyed good team success as the top option in a better situation, but he doesn't have anything that compares to Dantley in '88. I guess '06 would be the closest thing as he actually did have 2 really good series there, but losing to young D-Wade in 5 in the second round doesn't quite cut the mustard.

Also think it's telling that even though Carter played 400 more games and 9000 more minutes than Dantley, Dantley still has a 134-122 edge in win shares. Therefore:

Runoff vote: Adrian Dantley

WS LOVES high percentage shooting, just like VORP loves guys who score and get a lot of assists. So shouldn't be surprising that Dantley does well in WS.

[pandrade83]

Taking Dantley. When choosing between two very offensive minded players, it seems logical to take the player who gives that efficiency at a very high rate. I don't view Dantley as any kind of a positive defender during his very best seasons but I'm also not in love with Carter's prime.

Run-off Vote: Adrian Dantley