#5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project

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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#41 » by PigsOnTheWing » Tue Oct 2, 2018 8:17 pm

Voting for Stockton. Here is the reasoning:

The following numbers are an average of the 7-years prime of each player if not noted otherwise.

Jerry West: STLx100poss 3.6, BLKx100poss 1.0, DRBx100poss 3.8, DWS 3.1 (1965-1968, 1970-1973 for DWS, 1974 only for
others)
All-defensive 1st team 4, All-defensive 2nd team 1.
As I've written in the previous threads, from video he seems to be an excellent defender but other posters have
made me questioning his impact and I'm not sure if he belongs this high with a somewhat bad longevity anymore.

Chris Paul: STLx100poss 3.5, BLKx100poss 0.2, DRBx100poss 5.3, DWS 3.6, DBPM 0.6, DPIPM .9, MULTIYEAR DRAPM 1.1
(2008-2009, 2012-2016) All-defensive 1st team 7, All-defensive 2nd team 2.
Despite being just 6'0" he has consistenly been one of the best defenders of the last decade primarily thanks to
his immense IQ and great strenght and positioning. Sometimes suffered more physically imposing and extremely
fast guards but nothing to be worried about. Furthermore, he has 4 seasons in the top decile (90 percentile or
better) for defensive reboud rate among guards ever (I stole this from ElGee's writeup on him during his 40
greatest careers ever list :D )

Nate McMillan: STLx100poss 3.9, BLKx100poss 0.9, DRBx100poss 5.6, DWS 3.0, DBPM 2.7, DPIPM 1.8 (1989-1995)
All-defensive 1st team 0, All-defensive 2nd team 2.
This is tough. He's clearly the best of the 4 on a per-possession basis but I feel it is not enough when you play
2/3 the minutes of the others on prime alone. Then you add the lack of longevity and I feel you need to think
he had 2x the per-possession value of every other contender to justify him here. Personally, I don't feel this
way, so he's out of contention. (Also, the fact that he has so few selections on the all defensive teams may
reflect the fact that he was seen by his contemporaries more as a "give it all while you are in" type of (role)
player and not as a defensive centerpiece, though it must be noted the competition was at an all-time high
in those years with Jordan, Dumars, Payton and Blaylock dividing the sposts).

John Stockton: STLx100poss 3.8, BLKx100poss 0.3, DRBx100poss 3.0, DWS 3.9, DBPM -0.7, DPIPM 1.7 (1988-1992, 1994-1995)
All-defensive 1st team 0, All-defensive 2nd team 5.
He peaked earlier on defense than on offense and it's highlighted not only by his own metrics but also on a
team perspective. Monstrous team defender, he seemed to always know where to be on the court to get a
steal or to bother bigger players even in the post. Him and Paul are similar on defense, they are smaller than
the majority of the players but they are smart and strong enough to overcome that issue. They also both
suffer from being consistenly posted up but this is to be expected so it isn't necessarily a big knock (though it
has prevented him from play well and Porter for example). In the limited RAPM years he posted good to great
numbers, usually +1.5.

It comes really down to Paul and Stockton and, in the end, I choose Stockton with the tie-breaker being his still superior longevity.


I think my next four are these, but I'll try to get an idea about some less known (and appreciated) players like Van Lier and Buse.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#42 » by Gibson22 » Tue Oct 2, 2018 10:53 pm

About 13-14 hourso to go, so, if you want to vote

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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#43 » by SkyHookFTW » Wed Oct 3, 2018 1:48 am

Torn between West and Cheeks, but I went with West here. His length vs. Cheeks' technique. It was easier for a man his size on the defensive end. I remember being disruptive when playing in a way a smaller PG can't.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#44 » by Trundle » Wed Oct 3, 2018 6:00 am

trex_8063 wrote:Even with West's [generally] larger sample size of missed games, the effect his presence appears to have on pts allowed per game is all over the map from year-to-year. Even scrutinizing ONLY those seasons where he missed >5 games (anywhere from 6 to 31), here are his year-by-year WOWY effect ppg allowed:
-0.52
+4.64
-6.55
-1.23
+1.90
-0.38
-2.63
-1.46
+2.84

There's no real consistency, it just bounces all over the place.


You are missing the point by using 5 games as threshold, because it's definitely small sample, so no surprise there would be a lot of noise/lack of consistency. Here are numbers from seasons, when he missed more than 10 games, data from basketball-reference's game logs:

Code: Select all

YEAR   PLAYER   TEM PTS OPP PTS NET G MISSED
1963   Jerry West   6,4   -0,5   6,9   25
1967   Jerry West   4,8   -1,2   6,1   15
1968   Jerry West   10,0   1,9   8,1   31
1969   Jerry West   4,8   -0,4   5,2   21
1971   Jerry West   11,2  -1,5   12,7  13
1973   Jerry West   9,2    2,8   6,4   13
1974   Jerry West   0,3   -0,4   0,7   41


So first thing we see here is that with/without on such large samples constantly paints West as great player overall (except of last year, of course - BTW, it also shows how accurate with/without is here, as West definitely was much worse than ever before during '74 campaign).

Offensive/defensive splits might be affected by changes in pace, but he looks much better on offense than defense, so it's something, what we would expect. Even now, when offense is shifted more towards the perimeter, guards have significantly lower impact on D, than bigs and in the 60s offenses were built around the paint (and rarely there were very good offensive guards - I think that outside of Jerry and Oscar no guard had all star impact on O in the 60s), so even if some guard had great physical abilities like West, he couldn't have big impact on defense. Thus such splits not only are relatively consistent, but also look the way we would expect them considering how NBA was back in the day.

pandrade83 wrote:Then there's the '70 Lakers which finished 4th defensively despite just 12 games of Wilt, 35 YO Baylor missing 1/3 of the season & Happy Hairston missing 1/3 of the season.

I'd say that's fairly impressive when your rim protector is out for basically the whole year and your next 2 leading rebounders miss substantial time.


Counts replaced Wilt and he did very good job through whole season. Besides I would question Chamberlain's positive impact on defense at that point. Here's defensive with/without of all main Lakers' players from that season:

Code: Select all

OPP WITH OPP W/O DIFF   PLAYER
119,3   110,5   8,8   Wilt
111,5   114,1   -2,6   West
112,9   109,5   3,4   Baylor
110,6   114,0   -3,4   Hairston
111,5   131,0   -19,5   Counts (just 1 game missed)
112,0   109,8   2,2   Garrett
111,5   114,5   -3,0   Roberson
112,1   110,0   2,1   Erickson



Looks like adding Hariston via trade helped them a lot and of course Counts did what he was supposed to do on D. Loosing 35 years old Baylor with bad knees was a blessing on defensive end.

Besides keep in mind that being 4th in 1970 doesn't mean the same as now. There were just 14 teams in the league and LAL drtg was only 1.6 below league average. They were also 2nd in PTS allowed, but 4.9 below league average (1st team, NYK, 10.8!).
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#45 » by LA Bird » Wed Oct 3, 2018 11:44 am

Dropping in a quick vote before the deadline... vote: John Stockton

Sizable longevity advantage and maintained his defense well even into his 40s. DRAPM in his last 7 years was not only good but among the best at his position. #1 in steals and DWS by a large margin of any remaining point guards. Utah were an above average defensive team for most of his career as well. I may come back later to add more arguments but I have Stockton clearly ahead of Paul/West for defensive career.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#46 » by pandrade83 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 12:14 pm

Trundle wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:

pandrade83 wrote:Then there's the '70 Lakers which finished 4th defensively despite just 12 games of Wilt, 35 YO Baylor missing 1/3 of the season & Happy Hairston missing 1/3 of the season.

I'd say that's fairly impressive when your rim protector is out for basically the whole year and your next 2 leading rebounders miss substantial time.


Counts replaced Wilt and he did very good job through whole season. Besides I would question Chamberlain's positive impact on defense at that point. Here's defensive with/without of all main Lakers' players from that season:

Code: Select all

OPP WITH OPP W/O DIFF   PLAYER
119,3   110,5   8,8   Wilt
111,5   114,1   -2,6   West
112,9   109,5   3,4   Baylor
110,6   114,0   -3,4   Hairston
111,5   131,0   -19,5   Counts (just 1 game missed)
112,0   109,8   2,2   Garrett
111,5   114,5   -3,0   Roberson
112,1   110,0   2,1   Erickson



Looks like adding Hariston via trade helped them a lot and of course Counts did what he was supposed to do on D. Loosing 35 years old Baylor with bad knees was a blessing on defensive end.

Besides keep in mind that being 4th in 1970 doesn't mean the same as now. There were just 14 teams in the league and LAL drtg was only 1.6 below league average. They were also 2nd in PTS allowed, but 4.9 below league average (1st team, NYK, 10.8!).


Not sure if it's your sample or what - but even on your data, West jumps out as a plus defender which I don't think you mentioned - so he seems like he would be a driver of the team being good - or at the very least - above average defensively (

Anyway - so as I think about this team - on a per min basis, you lost your leading rebounder for nearly the whole year and you lost your 3rd leading rebounder - Hairston, who by this data is the best with/without defender on the team for 31 games - which just leaves West & Roberson as your two plus defenders who were constants per this data.

I'm not there with Counts to think that putting him in the lineup in place of Wilt is the driver of the team improving on defense. You have cited that Counts did his job, but didn't really provide any supporting data about Counts being a strong defender. We know he was a positionally weak rebounder.

I don't know if this is anything that dissuades me from my position on it - and if anything - your on-off data only reinforces my position that West was an impactful defender (on this team at least).
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#47 » by eminence » Wed Oct 3, 2018 12:17 pm

Going with Jerry West here. Still not sold on the little guards defense come playoff time, and Jerry has a meaningful minutes lead on most of his bigger guard competition for this spot. I think the next spot is probably where I feel there aren't any real top tier type guys next so the little guards with a ton of time played will take spots (probably starting with Stockton).
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#48 » by PistolPeteJR » Wed Oct 3, 2018 12:42 pm

Stockton went before West?

Listen, I think Stockton is underrated in general, but come on. #recencybiases
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#49 » by pandrade83 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 1:11 pm

PistolPeteJR wrote:Stockton went before West?

Listen, I think Stockton is underrated in general, but come on. #recencybiases


No - both are on the board still.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#50 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Oct 3, 2018 1:14 pm

Sheesh, surprised Dennis Johnson got in already.

i'm going to go with Jerry West. His length and athleticism are pretty elite, he probably has close to elite defensive wing impact as a point guard. All the others seem very good, but their lack of size makes me question their impact, though I could be convinced.

My vote goes to Jerry West



Can someone reference me (copy and paste or link) to arguments that focused around Nate McMillin and Mookie? I don't know enough about their defense to say if they're top 5 all time.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#51 » by PistolPeteJR » Wed Oct 3, 2018 1:19 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:Stockton went before West?

Listen, I think Stockton is underrated in general, but come on. #recencybiases


No - both are on the board still.


Oh misread, sorry.

West for me. I've vouched for him in every thread almost thus far lol.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#52 » by Gibson22 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 2:54 pm

This is really close.

At the end of the deadline we had 5 votes for stockton, 5 for cp3, 5 for jerry (and one for cheeks, mookie and nate).

32 minutes after the deadline (48 hours after the start of the thread) we had another vote for jerry west.

For the fact that it arrived after the deadline, and also for the fact that there are 3 candidates so close, I would proceed with a run-off. Do you agree? And, how should we proceed? The first one to arrive to 5 votes, excluding the ones who already voted for one of these 3 candidates? Tell me what you think.

Oh, I'm sorry for being late, I had other things to do

EDIT: I Was wrong! Didn't read the last comment probably.

They were all at 5, but counting pistolpete he's at six. And then there's homecourtloss who probably voted late, so I would give it to west. Btw if we started a run-off we should count those 2 late votes, and I would vote for west, so I don't think that the result would change, but, for me, it is fair to give it to jerry
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#53 » by trex_8063 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 3:05 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:This is really close.

At the end of the deadline we had 5 votes for stockton, 5 for cp3, 5 for jerry (and one for cheeks, mookie and nate).

32 minutes after the deadline (48 hours after the start of the thread) we had another vote for jerry west.

For the fact that it arrived after the deadline, and also for the fact that there are 3 candidates so close, I would proceed with a run-off. Do you agree? And, how should we proceed? The first one to arrive to 5 votes, excluding the ones who already voted for one of these 3 candidates? Tell me what you think.

Oh, I'm sorry for being late, I had other things to do

EDIT: I Was wrong! Didn't read the last comment probably.

They were all at 5, but counting pistolpete he's at six. And then there's homecourtloss who probably voted late, so I would give it to west. Btw if we started a run-off we should count those 2 late votes, and I would vote for west, so I don't think that the result would change, but, for me, it is fair to give it to jerry


I would probably start a 3-way runoff, have people pick their ONE fav candidate (mostly we're just looking for the people who hadn't already cast a vote for one of the three to take a side). HOpefully that leaves us with a winner, or if not, at least a means of fairly narrowing it to two candidates for a further runoff. That's how we'd typically handle this situation in the top 100 project anyway.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#54 » by Gibson22 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 3:14 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
lebron3-14-3 wrote:This is really close.

At the end of the deadline we had 5 votes for stockton, 5 for cp3, 5 for jerry (and one for cheeks, mookie and nate).

32 minutes after the deadline (48 hours after the start of the thread) we had another vote for jerry west.

For the fact that it arrived after the deadline, and also for the fact that there are 3 candidates so close, I would proceed with a run-off. Do you agree? And, how should we proceed? The first one to arrive to 5 votes, excluding the ones who already voted for one of these 3 candidates? Tell me what you think.

Oh, I'm sorry for being late, I had other things to do

EDIT: I Was wrong! Didn't read the last comment probably.

They were all at 5, but counting pistolpete he's at six. And then there's homecourtloss who probably voted late, so I would give it to west. Btw if we started a run-off we should count those 2 late votes, and I would vote for west, so I don't think that the result would change, but, for me, it is fair to give it to jerry


I would probably start a 3-way runoff, have people pick their ONE fav candidate (mostly we're just looking for the people who hadn't already cast a vote for one of the three to take a side). HOpefully that leaves us with a winner, or if not, at least a means of fairly narrowing it to two candidates for a further runoff. That's how we'd typically handle this situation in the top 100 project anyway.


Yes, that's what I was going to do, but with PistolPete who expressed his preference for jerry west before the deadline, but voted for him 37 minutes later for a misunderstanding, I would probably go with jerry, also considering the other late vote for him. I mean, if homecourtloss voted for stockton or cp3 I would be inclined to go with the run-off, but in this case we have one late vote + one maybe late vote for jerry west
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#55 » by Gibson22 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 3:33 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
lebron3-14-3 wrote:This is really close.

At the end of the deadline we had 5 votes for stockton, 5 for cp3, 5 for jerry (and one for cheeks, mookie and nate).

32 minutes after the deadline (48 hours after the start of the thread) we had another vote for jerry west.

For the fact that it arrived after the deadline, and also for the fact that there are 3 candidates so close, I would proceed with a run-off. Do you agree? And, how should we proceed? The first one to arrive to 5 votes, excluding the ones who already voted for one of these 3 candidates? Tell me what you think.

Oh, I'm sorry for being late, I had other things to do

EDIT: I Was wrong! Didn't read the last comment probably.

They were all at 5, but counting pistolpete he's at six. And then there's homecourtloss who probably voted late, so I would give it to west. Btw if we started a run-off we should count those 2 late votes, and I would vote for west, so I don't think that the result would change, but, for me, it is fair to give it to jerry


I would probably start a 3-way runoff, have people pick their ONE fav candidate (mostly we're just looking for the people who hadn't already cast a vote for one of the three to take a side). HOpefully that leaves us with a winner, or if not, at least a means of fairly narrowing it to two candidates for a further runoff. That's how we'd typically handle this situation in the top 100 project anyway.


Anyway, If we do the run-off, at what point should we end it? The first to 5 votes?
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#57 » by PigsOnTheWing » Wed Oct 3, 2018 5:20 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
lebron3-14-3 wrote:This is really close.

At the end of the deadline we had 5 votes for stockton, 5 for cp3, 5 for jerry (and one for cheeks, mookie and nate).

32 minutes after the deadline (48 hours after the start of the thread) we had another vote for jerry west.

For the fact that it arrived after the deadline, and also for the fact that there are 3 candidates so close, I would proceed with a run-off. Do you agree? And, how should we proceed? The first one to arrive to 5 votes, excluding the ones who already voted for one of these 3 candidates? Tell me what you think.

Oh, I'm sorry for being late, I had other things to do

EDIT: I Was wrong! Didn't read the last comment probably.

They were all at 5, but counting pistolpete he's at six. And then there's homecourtloss who probably voted late, so I would give it to west. Btw if we started a run-off we should count those 2 late votes, and I would vote for west, so I don't think that the result would change, but, for me, it is fair to give it to jerry


I would probably start a 3-way runoff, have people pick their ONE fav candidate (mostly we're just looking for the people who hadn't already cast a vote for one of the three to take a side). HOpefully that leaves us with a winner, or if not, at least a means of fairly narrowing it to two candidates for a further runoff. That's how we'd typically handle this situation in the top 100 project anyway.


Anyway, If we do the run-off, at what point should we end it? The first to 5 votes?


I'd keep it open for 12-16 hours (if you can) and I'd also quote everybody who hasn't voted yet to remind them to do so.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#58 » by pandrade83 » Wed Oct 3, 2018 5:27 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:guys..


My two cents:

1) Tally up current votes
2) Give it another 12 hours since some votes came in after the original deadline
3) If Tie, give it a 24 hour run-off amongst all tied candidates - new votes will only be eligible from participants who did not vote for any candidate in the run-off.
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#59 » by Owly » Wed Oct 3, 2018 5:29 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Sheesh, surprised Dennis Johnson got in already.

i'm going to go with Jerry West. His length and athleticism are pretty elite, he probably has close to elite defensive wing impact as a point guard. All the others seem very good, but their lack of size makes me question their impact, though I could be convinced.

My vote goes to Jerry West



Can someone reference me (copy and paste or link) to arguments that focused around Nate McMillin and Mookie? I don't know enough about their defense to say if they're top 5 all time.

Both may have been supported based on a combination of the limited impact data available for them and more qualitative analysis.

McMillan led the league in on-court total points differential and on-court per minute points differential in 1994 (+616, +15.66931638 per 48). I believe some people have then done further stuff with those numbers (cf: http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8671), though I haven't really delved into it, but those numbers will reflect positively on McMillan.

Both rate out well in the 97-14 RAPM in samples that are largely or entirely out of prime (https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-defensive-rapm, McMillan in a small sample 2.17, Blaylock 1.18 - though fwiw Stockton, another competitor, does better than Blaylock and in sample that dwarfs McMillan's).

Both were, fwiw, prolific stealers and both, McMillan in particular, are likely to have seen the bulk of his impact at the defensive end.

I may look at combining my yearly Rick Barry scouting ratings to one spreadsheet, but it's probably safe to say they graded out well (though again, so too will Stockton).
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Re: #5 Best Defensive Point Guard of All Time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#60 » by PigsOnTheWing » Wed Oct 3, 2018 5:33 pm

Jerry West 7 (samurai, penbeast, pandrade, skyhookftw, eminence, heartbreakkid, pistolpetejr)
Chris Paul 5 (trex, knickfan, drpositivity, uberhikari, lost92bricks)
John Stockton 5 (cecil, luigi, iggymcfrack, bounce_9, LABird)
Nate Mcmillan 1 (lebron3-14-3)
Mookie Blaylock 1 (Shaq32)
Maurice Cheeks 1 (sincegatlingwasarookie)

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