The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1

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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#41 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Mar 6, 2019 7:47 am

GSP wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Wasabi_Johnson wrote:This not the type of game that makes me think they can beat GSW.

Edit: If CP3 ends up their best player in the playoffs then they will be underdogs against GSW, DEN , and OKC.


It’s always going to look ugly when you play one of the top defenses/teams in the league. Toronto has the best defensive 1-3 in the league and I dont think it’s close.

Chris Paul and Harden are 1a/1b. Very few teams can boast that type of talent. CP3 is one of the 15-25 best players in NBA history, there is absolutely nothing wrong with him being their best guy.


Do u mean the best defender at each position 1-3 or just collectively? If u mean collectively i think u might as well say 1-4. Siakam is a great defender and clearly been their best defender this year. He did guard Harden more than Kawhi this game too


I mean tcollectively and yeah you’re right it should be 1-4. They are a ridiculous perimeter defensive team.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#42 » by ShotCreator » Wed Mar 6, 2019 5:04 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:After the loss to the Lakers Rockets are 6-0 with a +8 net rating. 118 offense, 110 defense. The defense still concerns me, they’re right around league average, ranking 14th over that stretch. Offense is #2 barely behind Detroit (!) and still over the full season.
I'd feel confident in saying the defense is good when healthy.

They can contain penetration decently and they are finally rotating well. However they obviously don't have the versatility of last year through Ariza and Luc. Now, they flat out almost beat GS in 6 w/o Luc somehow(I spent the whole year convinced they'd need him having a Tony Allen level series, which he was capable of replicating).

They do have Gary Clark who is bad at a lot in terms of creation but legitimately good at defense, and COULD have Danuel House who is a pretty athletic wing with good size and solid skills on offense. Now, I've given up hope on House, but he'd be huge for them IMO.

This is probably a +8 or +9 team when healthy IMO, instead of the +12ish monster they were last year.

GS is probably worse on both sides of the ball and regressed to the same level, and are deep with liabilities on the frontcourt. HCA is so huge though. What a shame.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#43 » by Lost92Bricks » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:54 am

Game-sealing block from CP...

Read on Twitter


Rockets have now held their opponent to under 100 points for 3 straight games.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#44 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:42 am

Lost92Bricks wrote:Game-sealing block from CP...

Read on Twitter


Rockets have now held their opponent to under 100 points for 3 straight games.


I’ve been telling people. They’re back. If they can defend at this level going forward it doesn’t even matter how good their offense is. No one can score on them at all.

This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck. Plenty of teams have been more consistent with more traditional schemes but when this team is firing there’s nothing like it. I’ve never seen a team defense that can just take everything away. I agent seen a team get a clean look against them for like four straight games. Their resistance to switch is a little higher than last year but the way they pull it off is just a masterpiece.

Tucker is the smartest dude. He really has become a mini-Draymond. The first two pick ad rolls Philly ran against them he took two consecutive charges. Just completely ruined what they were trying to do. It’s amazing how much of a deterrent at the rim he is given his short stature because just getting that thick body in the way and standing straight up leaves guys no finishing ag]ngles without bowling him over. And his man defense actually looks better to me this year which shouldn’t happen given his age.

Since Paul came back things just look right. This team is so goddamn physical and competitive and when they’re flying around the floor getting a hand in the face of every shooter, executing every handoff and switch perfectly and baiting guys into dumb fouls and turnovers nothing in basketball makes me happier. I don’t even care how boring their offense is. I’m a sucker for defensive execution and the Rockets defense is better than sex.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#45 » by ShotCreator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:22 pm

If they snag the #1 seed I'd favor them by a little

This is probably the most parity the league has seen since 2013-14, maybe. Except there's much more conference balance. Playoffs should be funnest since then.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#46 » by bondom34 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:35 pm

He's really been great since his last return, but the defense isn't there at all. Since the break they've played 9 games and had an over 110 D rating in 4. The one game dragging the DRtg way down is Philly without Embiid.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#47 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:29 pm

bondom34 wrote:He's really been great since his last return, but the defense isn't there at all. Since the break they've played 9 games and had an over 110 D rating in 4. The one game dragging the DRtg way down is Philly without Embiid.


Which is why we do averages. Let’s take a 9 game win streak from last year, for example: 28/1-13/2 2018.

During that stretch they allowed a 110+ ORTG 4 times (119 vs Magic, 123 vs Nets, 114 vs Heat, 119 vs MIN). During that streak their overall DRTG was 104.2.

You could easily say “the one game dragging down the DRTG during last year’s streak is the Cleveland game where they held them to 88 ORTG because LeBron was putting and asked for half the roster to be traded”. But we know better.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#48 » by bondom34 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:43 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:He's really been great since his last return, but the defense isn't there at all. Since the break they've played 9 games and had an over 110 D rating in 4. The one game dragging the DRtg way down is Philly without Embiid.


Which is why we do averages. Let’s take a 9 game win streak from last year, for example: 28/1-13/2 2018.

During that stretch they allowed a 110+ ORTG 4 times (119 vs Magic, 123 vs Nets, 114 vs Heat, 119 vs MIN). During that streak their overall DRTG was 104.2.

You could easily say “the one game dragging down the DRTG during last year’s streak is the Cleveland game where they held them to 88 ORTG because LeBron was putting and asked for half the roster to be traded”. But we know better.

And again, we know that they've been pretty mediocre sans 1 game out of 9. That's why we don't jump to conclusions based on a 9 game sample at the time of year when a lot of weird results happen every season. Every year mid March a lot of weird games happen. Right now Memphis is winning, Phoenix won 4-5 and Detroit has the best offense in the NBA. They just gave up a ton to Miami and eeked by Dallas. They're just not as good as last year at all
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#49 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:02 pm

bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:He's really been great since his last return, but the defense isn't there at all. Since the break they've played 9 games and had an over 110 D rating in 4. The one game dragging the DRtg way down is Philly without Embiid.


Which is why we do averages. Let’s take a 9 game win streak from last year, for example: 28/1-13/2 2018.

During that stretch they allowed a 110+ ORTG 4 times (119 vs Magic, 123 vs Nets, 114 vs Heat, 119 vs MIN). During that streak their overall DRTG was 104.2.

You could easily say “the one game dragging down the DRTG during last year’s streak is the Cleveland game where they held them to 88 ORTG because LeBron was putting and asked for half the roster to be traded”. But we know better.

And again, we know that they've been pretty mediocre sans 1 game out of 9. That's why we don't jump to conclusions based on a 9 game sample at the time of year when a lot of weird results happen every season. Every year mid March a lot of weird games happen. Right now Memphis is winning, Phoenix won 4-5 and Detroit has the best offense in the NBA. They just gave up a ton to Miami and eeked by Dallas. They're just not as good as last year at all


2016 Thunder: 7 SRS
2017 Thunder: 1 SRS

2018 Rockets: 8 SRS
2019 Rockets: 3 SRS

If you are going to seriously argue that this stretch is jsut luck you need to explain what change this year caused the Rockets almost just as much as when the Thunder lost prime Kevin Durant.

YOY dropoffs like this just don’t happen with the same roster. You’re arguing that it’s much more likely that one of the best teams in NBA history jsut forgot how to ball than it is that after finally getting healthy they have regained there form.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#50 » by bondom34 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:03 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Which is why we do averages. Let’s take a 9 game win streak from last year, for example: 28/1-13/2 2018.

During that stretch they allowed a 110+ ORTG 4 times (119 vs Magic, 123 vs Nets, 114 vs Heat, 119 vs MIN). During that streak their overall DRTG was 104.2.

You could easily say “the one game dragging down the DRTG during last year’s streak is the Cleveland game where they held them to 88 ORTG because LeBron was putting and asked for half the roster to be traded”. But we know better.

And again, we know that they've been pretty mediocre sans 1 game out of 9. That's why we don't jump to conclusions based on a 9 game sample at the time of year when a lot of weird results happen every season. Every year mid March a lot of weird games happen. Right now Memphis is winning, Phoenix won 4-5 and Detroit has the best offense in the NBA. They just gave up a ton to Miami and eeked by Dallas. They're just not as good as last year at all


2016 Thunder: 7 SRS
2017 Thunder: 1 SRS

2018 Rockets: 8 SRS
2019 Rockets: 3 SRS

If you are going to seriously argue that this stretch is jsut luck you need to explain what change this year caused the Rockets almost just as much as when the Thunder lost prime Kevin Durant.

YOY dropoffs like this just don’t happen with the same roster. You’re arguing that it’s much more likely that one of the best teams in NBA history jsut forgot how to ball than it is that after finally getting healthy they have regained there form.

They don't have the same roster. The role players are worse, Capela's playing worse, and the CP3/Harden lineups still don't work.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#51 » by K_chile22 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:26 pm

A big part of them defending better is going back to the hyper aggressive switching. They couldn't do it with CP hurt and Capela hurt, or at the beginning of the year when Clint looked really slow. They have a lot of dudes who can play solid defense 1 on 1 but are awful defending action away from the ball or getting through screens (Harden, Green, Gordon, Rivers), which is why this team has to switch if they want to defend well. Going away from it was a panic move at first and a necessity due to injuries later. They definitely aren't as good as last year... but neither are the Warriors. Think they still have a punchers chance.

Since CP came back 18 games ago they're 14th in defensive rating, and the biggest thing dragging them down is 29th in DREB%, since Capela missed a chunk of that. 20th since ASB, which is pretty much the only thing that's changed from the 9 game sample post CP return, pre Capela to the 9 games with both, and that brought them from 14th to 6th, small sample size of course
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#52 » by Lost92Bricks » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:47 am

This loss tonight didn't really discourage me. I still think the Rockets have a chance. I would say probably 30-40%.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#53 » by GSP » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:50 am

Lost92Bricks wrote:This loss tonight didn't really discourage me. I still think the Rockets have a chance. I would say probably 30-40%.


Cousins being the best player on the court and the Warriors bench showing up prolly isnt gonna happen very often
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#54 » by sp6r=underrated » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:35 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..


This is insane. Even if you take their best defensive stretches there are multiple clubs that have put up better defensive stretches. I think you're given them bonus points for aesthetics.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#55 » by Dr Spaceman » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:06 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..


This is insane. Even if you take their best defensive stretches there are multiple clubs that have put up better defensive stretches. I think you're given them bonus points for aesthetics.


Wrong maybe but not insane. The Heat were a very similar aesthetic team but had clear structural flaws. Watching those old Heat games you see them start to really lose their cool after 2-3 ball rotations. This is exactly what the Spurs would exploit against them time and time again. After that first seam the hole grows bigger as they get to the ball later and later. Doesn’t happen with the Rockets. Matter of fact the Rockets are actually more likely to close the seam than the reverse after multiple passes. You essentially have a split second to attack the opening before they close it. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s why they are isolated against far more than any defense since such things have been recorded, because they apply the bandaid at mind-blowing speed so all you’re left with is maybe a size mismatch if you’re lucky.

The Rox are also unique historically in that their rim protection lineup is also their switch lineup. Capela and Tucker can do anything out there, he’ll id trust Tucker on Steph Curry perhaps more than all but 1 or 2 other defenders in the league. No other defense can brag a big man like Capela who can hold his own as a helpside defender and a switch guy even on ones. He has to be pretty thin to be able to do this so he gives up a bit to beefier centers but the Rockets are very aggressive with double teams to help cover his back and force a lot of turnovers on such psossesssions.

What you get is a team that doesn’t give anything up. The one real weakness is Harden’s cement feet stopping dribble penetration but they do a wonderful job covering for that with switching and Tucker’s help side rotations. They dare teams to try to go to the post against them because they’re team thicc and they body people and fight and don’t give an inch. Harden himself is like in the top 5 percentile as a post defender. He doesn’t get enough credit for how hard he’s worked to tighten the screws and limit his liabilities. You see teams just give up against them and hope that Kevin durant can hit enough fade-aways over Eric Gordon. I have never seen a team that forces more pick and rolls to not generate any advantage and their switching and the way they play passing lanes actively discourages screening and passing, the backbone of any good offense. It becomes so costly for offenses with all the turnovers they just stop doing it which is what GSW did last year.

It’s borne out in the results. Holding very good offenses in Utah and Minny last year to -7 and -6 respectively and holding GSW to 105, 103 and 102 ORTG in 3/5 games is absurd. GSW was easily the best offense in recorded history and could barely muster a point per possession against them in their best games. I don’t know what other teams are capable of that performance.

Indy, Chi, Boston, Miami, Utah of course are contenders but each of those teams save Chicago had very clear structural flaws mostly with shooting big men and pick and roll containment. I don’t know what flaws Houston really has.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#56 » by Pillendreher » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:23 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..


This is insane. Even if you take their best defensive stretches there are multiple clubs that have put up better defensive stretches. I think you're given them bonus points for aesthetics.


Every stats site must be using corrupted data since the Rockets are a bottom 10 defense on all of them and not the best in the league. Somebody should notify them.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#57 » by 70sFan » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:24 am

In the end, Warriors still posted 114 ORtg against Houston last WCF, they did great job in a few games but overall they were far from success on defensive side of the ball.

I don't see how they can have higher celling than 2008 Celtics or Duncan Spurs. I doubt they are/were better defensive team than 2015 and 2016 Warriors to be honest.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#58 » by Pillendreher » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:27 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:I don’t know what flaws Houston really has.


A structural flaw in that regard would be being a (well) below average defensive team. Even Paul-Harden-Tucker-Capela are 4.3 pp100p worse on defense tha the league average. At this point, I can't even comprehend what you're talking about here.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#59 » by Dr Spaceman » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:39 am

Pillendreher wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:I don’t know what flaws Houston really has.


A structural flaw in that regard would be being a (well) below average defensive team. Even Paul-Harden-Tucker-Capela are 4.3 pp100p worse on defense tha the league average. At this point, I can't even comprehend what you're talking about here.


Last 6 games they have a defensive rating of 103 with games against Boston, Toronto, Philly (no Embiid), and GSW (no Durant) during that stretch. Their problem has always been health, they have been missing at least 2 starters for almost the whole year at this point.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#60 » by 70sFan » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:23 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:I don’t know what flaws Houston really has.


A structural flaw in that regard would be being a (well) below average defensive team. Even Paul-Harden-Tucker-Capela are 4.3 pp100p worse on defense tha the league average. At this point, I can't even comprehend what you're talking about here.


Last 6 games they have a defensive rating of 103 with games against Boston, Toronto, Philly (no Embiid), and GSW (no Durant) during that stretch. Their problem has always been health, they have been missing at least 2 starters for almost the whole year at this point.


I hate to say this, but 6 games sample is ridiculously low. Besides, here is further breakdown:

Boston ORtg: 112.3
Against Hou: 111.3

Toronto ORtg: 112.7
Against Hou: 105.3

Philly ORtg: 112.0
Against Hou: 91.7 (without Embiid)

Dallas ORtg: 108.5
Against Hou: 101.2

Charlotte ORtg: 110.9
Against Hou: 106.7

Warriors ORtg: 116.0
Against Hou: 117.9


They did excellent job against Sixers, but Philly without Embiid is not a great team. Another impressive performance against Raptors, full credit.
Other than that, there is nothing remarkable about this streak. They defended well against inconsistent Hornets but it's nothing spectacular and they didn't slow down Warriors or Celtics at all. From what I've seen/heard (I haven't watched the game), they have some really good possessions at the end of the Warriors game and it's important, but people forget that Warriors scored on them easily for most of the game (the pace was just very slow for new standards).

Fairly imoressive streak given how bad they has been this year, but to call them the most impressive defensive team in the league? No, I don't buy that even for this streak alone.

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