Peaks project update: #13

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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#41 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:06 pm

Moses Malone is a player pretty regularly underrated in general. First he's a super athlete. One of the best ever and it's kinda odd people don't mention him when talking about the most athletic players ever. Look at this:



He's up and down fast, agile, smooth, and probably one of the 5 strongest players in league history. Secondly his offensive game was more diverse than people act like it is. Usually you see him boxed in as a power player but he wasn't a bullyball guy exclusively. Honestly outside of his boards he relied on his superior speed and not his size to score (this is from 2 years prior but still).



His wide amount of skills meant that no matter who his opponent his performance was consistent, which is his biggest positive I think. From 79 to 85 he played 3 series against defenses that were -4 or better in the playoffs. He averaged 27.0/13.7/2.1 on 55.5 TS% with a 7.3 TOV% and 122 ORTG. That's a +20 rORTG. Head to head against Kareem in the playoffs he averaged 28.1/17.9/2.4 on 56 TS% vs Kareem's 24.9/11.4/3.4 on 56 TS%, going 6-1 in their 2 series against each other in 81 and 83. Basically we have evidence his resilient game gave great defenses fits.

Defensively people crap on Moses but honestly given he replaced Caldwell Jones in Philly (1st team all defense in 81 and 82), and the defense was slightly better than in 82, and he made 1st team all defense, I can see an argument for him being a very good, just not all time great, defender.

Now that's about his game, because I think it's misrepresented overall. Let's get into his impact which seems to be top tier in 83. First we have +/- estimates from 83 thanks to fpliii who got a bunch of old sixers media guides and uploaded the pages a few years ago. What we ended up with was:

Code: Select all

         On   Off   Net
Malone   11.5   -4.1   15.6
Cheeks   12.8   -1.4   14.1
Erving   11.4   1.1   10.3
Toney   10.8   1.7   9.1
B. Jones   13.6   2.6   11.0
Iavaroni   8.1   7.0   1.1
C. Johnson   2.9   8.4   -5.4
Richardson   0.8   12.7   -11.9



Offense (O Rating)

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Malone   110.5   102.3   8.2
Cheeks   109.4   106.5   2.9
Erving   111.1   103.9   7.2
Toney   111.2   103.6   7.6
B. Jones   113.8   104.0   9.7
Iavaroni   105.2   110.4   -5.2
C. Johnson   100.8   109.9   -9.1
Richardson   104.2   111.6   -7.4


Defense:

Code: Select all

   On    Off   Net
Malone   98.9   106.4   -7.4
Cheeks   96.7   107.9   -11.2
Erving   99.7   102.8   -3.1
Toney   100.3   101.8   -1.5
B. Jones   100.2   101.5   -1.3
Iavaroni   97.2   103.5   -6.3
C. Johnson   97.9   101.5   -3.6
Richardson   103.4   98.9   4.5


So not amazing, next level +/- numbers but definitely great enough numbers to be included with the people we're considering at this spot. You can also look at Philly's play in the 82 postseason where they lost in the Finals and 83 when they won. In 82 they were a +6.3 team in the playoffs, and in 83 they were a +10.7 team. That's a lot of lift for a top level team, and when combined with his impact in Houston prior* it paints a clear picture of how great he was.

*Couldn't fit it in there but the Rockets went from being a -0.4 team in 82 to a -11.1 team replacing him with Caldwell Jones, and losing their second best player to an early retirement.

In 83 Philly was a +8.8 team at full strength including the postseason. Overall in their postseason run, the man who promised a fo' fo' fo' sweep averaged 31/16/2 on 63 TS% (1.5 spg and 2 bpg) in a sweep against NY, had 2 hiccups against Milwaukee with a dud in game 1 and their game 4 loss but he still averaged 22/14/1 on 57 TS% (1.4 spg, 2.2 bpg), and vastly outplayed Kareem (who was in his prime but quickly headed out) averaging 26/18/2 on 56 TS% (1.5 spg, 1.5 bpg) arguably outplaying him all 4 games, depending on how you feel about game 2.

I think when you take his postseason performance, impact metrics, and the portability of his game into account he comes out ahead of a lot of bigs we naturally assume are better than Moses.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#42 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:20 pm

WarriorGM wrote:
Timmyyy wrote:



Ok so we rather take the raw data, since the superior adjusted data doesn't show your favorite player in front.


Oh how lovely! We have an RAPM lover! Can you give me the formula? Can you explain to me why it is superior to +/-? Do you think it actually ranks players accurately with good enough precision to matter especially in the context of this discussion?

I too am deeply suspicious of most of these black-box adjusted plus minus stats until i've independently looked at a bunch of results and evaluated their reliability as well as I can, but surely you have to admit using raw +/- as a direct comparison tool for individual players is simplistic to the point of being pretty much useless. At least evaluate it in context, or use swing.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#43 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:21 pm

Also reposting this because thanks to some posters this was never really addressed RE: David Robinson -

For his current voters if you're voting for him over what he can do in the regular season alone, I get it. If you're saying his postseason offensive impact is "good enough" for your vote:

1. We have playoff RAPM for both Draymond and Robinson as #2s. Draymond is tied for first with LeBron, and the 3rd in DRAPM (close to Robinson at first place, 3.9 vs 4.1) and Robinson from 98 on is 4th, but there's a gap between 3rd (Manu) and Robinson. Now I can easily believe peak Robinson would've been a better second option, but I don't think he would be as impactful as Draymond's offense has been to the Warriors. And he's a player who's offensive production in the postseason rises a ton, plus we've seen him and Klay without Curry look dominant still in Dray's peak year. I can easily see an argument he's more impactful as a #2 than Robinson, and if the argument is Robinson can be this high because of his impact if he would be a #2, I think Draymond shouldn't be too far behind.

2. Dwight is great. I actually put 2011 Dwight as the 3rd best player in the league that year. In 08-11 RAPM he's 4th, in a big bunch of players (Nash, KG, CP3, Dirk) under LeBron at 1. He was the 2nd best defender to KG at worst (I'd say he was better than KG some of those years), and a guy that averaged 20/14 on 63 TS% in the playoffs from 08-11. He was also 2nd in MVP in 2011 and of course won 3 straight DPOYs.

3. Zo unlike Dwight had a full offensive game. Then he has 99, a season where I think he was the 3rd best player in basketball, but only under 2 people already on here. He averaged 20/11 on +5 rTS% with 4 bpg, won DPOY, was MVP runner up (it was close too), and lead the league in RAPM. In the playoffs he played well, but they lost to the NBA Finalist Knicks that Robinson knocked off as a #2 to Duncan (who was dominant).

If strong +/- numbers from players that might not really be a #1 is your thing, these guys are more proven in the playoffs as #1s or in the case of Draymond #2s.


How highly are you guys rating similar players to Robinson that have shown they can play great defense, and still produced at a higher level in the postseason?

Really the more I think about it the more I think Alonzo Mourning might need to come up pretty high on this list. His peak is extremely underrated, and of the people left on the board he's one of the few to lead the league in +/- metrics, contend for MVP, play well in the postseason, and play for a contender. If it wasn't for NY's defense holding the next 2 best players on his team to a WOAT level performance (Hardaway averaged 9/3/6 on 36 TS%, Mashburn averaged 10/3/2 on 47 TS%), and Allan Houston making a miracle floater we might be discussing him around 20 in this project.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#44 » by WarriorGM » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:34 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:
WarriorGM wrote:
Timmyyy wrote:



Ok so we rather take the raw data, since the superior adjusted data doesn't show your favorite player in front.


Oh how lovely! We have an RAPM lover! Can you give me the formula? Can you explain to me why it is superior to +/-? Do you think it actually ranks players accurately with good enough precision to matter especially in the context of this discussion?

I too am deeply suspicious of most of these black-box adjusted plus minus stats until i've independently looked at a bunch of results and evaluated their reliability as well as I can, but surely you have to admit using raw +/- as a direct comparison tool for individual players is simplistic to the point of being pretty much useless. At least evaluate it in context, or use swing.


I'm unsure what you mean by swing.

You're right using raw +/- as a direct comparison tool is simplistic, but I'm not doing so in isolation. I'm also considering wins. Then, similar to the idea behind SRS, there is the degree of the wins. Then there is the consistency and repetition of the results.

Consider this too: Some of these stats like RAPM were designed and are tested to predict outcomes. Curry started topping the league in raw +/- in 2013. The Warriors started winning championships in 2015. It did a good job of predicting didn't it? So at least on the extreme high end I can already point to an example of raw +/- having predictive ability.
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Lucky #13 

Post#45 » by JoeMalburg » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:35 pm

I'm all but certain my vote here will go to Oscar Robertson, but I want to look a little deeper at some of the other candidates.

I feel like a have a pretty good handle on the case for Steph Curry, David Robinson and Charles Barkley, but I feel much like I might be missing out on the case for a few others.

I've put some questions I'd love responses to in bold:

1983 Moses Malone - I'd like to hear any arguments against him, because generally, I felt for a longtime like his 1983 season was among the top ten peaks in league history. Because of that, I feel like there is a compelling case for him, but just as he was once underrated historically, it feels like in the last decade or so he's become overrated in the eyes of many informed basketball fans. So let's hear what everyone here thinks...

1977 Bill Walton - I'm going to deep dive on this one because if I could guarantee health, he'd be a top ten for me for sure. The issue is of course availability being among the most important of abilities and being his Achilles heel, or perhaps more aptly his entire foot. Regardless, I'd like to know how others weigh how great he was on the court vs. how often he wasn't able to be on the court.

There is also a quartet of forwards who aren't getting a lot of traction that I think could if not should be mentioned at this point. Bob Pettit, Karl Malone, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant. Who stands out among this group to you and how soon will they be appearing on your ballot?

Beyond that, and maybe it's a bit too soon for this discussion, Jerry West vs. Kobe Bryant vs. Dwyane Wade - whose peak do we prefer and why?
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#46 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:47 pm

WarriorGM wrote:
cecilthesheep wrote:
WarriorGM wrote:
Oh how lovely! We have an RAPM lover! Can you give me the formula? Can you explain to me why it is superior to +/-? Do you think it actually ranks players accurately with good enough precision to matter especially in the context of this discussion?

I too am deeply suspicious of most of these black-box adjusted plus minus stats until i've independently looked at a bunch of results and evaluated their reliability as well as I can, but surely you have to admit using raw +/- as a direct comparison tool for individual players is simplistic to the point of being pretty much useless. At least evaluate it in context, or use swing.


I'm unsure what you mean by swing.

You're right using raw +/- as a direct comparison tool is simplistic, but I'm not doing so in isolation. I'm also considering wins. Then, similar to the idea behind SRS, there is the degree of the wins. Then there is the consistency and repetition of the results.

Consider this too: Some of these stats like RAPM were designed and are tested to predict outcomes. Curry started topping the league in raw +/- in 2013. The Warriors started winning championships in 2015. It did a good job of predicting didn't it? So at least on the extreme high end I can already point to an example of raw +/- having predictive ability.

I've seen swing called net plus-minus too, but here's what it is basically:

if player A has a +/- of +20, and while he's off the court his team has a +/- of 15, his swing or net +/- is (20 - 15) = +5
Compare that to player B, who has a +/- of say 15, but while he's off the court his team is -5, so his swing is +20

Player B clearly has the higher value here, but the lower +/-.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#47 » by Owly » Wed Aug 7, 2019 8:55 pm

E-Balla wrote:Moses Malone is a player pretty regularly underrated in general. First he's a super athlete. One of the best ever and it's kinda odd people don't mention him when talking about the most athletic players ever. Look at this:



He's up and down fast, agile, smooth, and probably one of the 5 strongest players in league history. Secondly his offensive game was more diverse than people act like it is. Usually you see him boxed in as a power player but he wasn't a bullyball guy exclusively. Honestly outside of his boards he relied on his superior speed and not his size to score (this is from 2 years prior but still).



His wide amount of skills meant that no matter who his opponent his performance was consistent, which is his biggest positive I think. From 79 to 85 he played 3 series against defenses that were -4 or better in the playoffs. He averaged 27.0/13.7/2.1 on 55.5 TS% with a 7.3 TOV% and 122 ORTG. That's a +20 rORTG. Head to head against Kareem in the playoffs he averaged 28.1/17.9/2.4 on 56 TS% vs Kareem's 24.9/11.4/3.4 on 56 TS%, going 6-1 in their 2 series against each other in 81 and 83. Basically we have evidence his resilient game gave great defenses fits.

Defensively people crap on Moses but honestly given he replaced Caldwell Jones in Philly (1st team all defense in 81 and 82), and the defense was slightly better than in 82, and he made 1st team all defense, I can see an argument for him being a very good, just not all time great, defender.

Now that's about his game, because I think it's misrepresented overall. Let's get into his impact which seems to be top tier in 83. First we have +/- estimates from 83 thanks to fpliii who got a bunch of old sixers media guides and uploaded the pages a few years ago. What we ended up with was:

Code: Select all

         On   Off   Net
Malone   11.5   -4.1   15.6
Cheeks   12.8   -1.4   14.1
Erving   11.4   1.1   10.3
Toney   10.8   1.7   9.1
B. Jones   13.6   2.6   11.0
Iavaroni   8.1   7.0   1.1
C. Johnson   2.9   8.4   -5.4
Richardson   0.8   12.7   -11.9



Offense (O Rating)

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Malone   110.5   102.3   8.2
Cheeks   109.4   106.5   2.9
Erving   111.1   103.9   7.2
Toney   111.2   103.6   7.6
B. Jones   113.8   104.0   9.7
Iavaroni   105.2   110.4   -5.2
C. Johnson   100.8   109.9   -9.1
Richardson   104.2   111.6   -7.4


Defense:

Code: Select all

   On    Off   Net
Malone   98.9   106.4   -7.4
Cheeks   96.7   107.9   -11.2
Erving   99.7   102.8   -3.1
Toney   100.3   101.8   -1.5
B. Jones   100.2   101.5   -1.3
Iavaroni   97.2   103.5   -6.3
C. Johnson   97.9   101.5   -3.6
Richardson   103.4   98.9   4.5


So not amazing, next level +/- numbers but definitely great enough numbers to be included with the people we're considering at this spot. You can also look at Philly's play in the 82 postseason where they lost in the Finals and 83 when they won. In 82 they were a +6.3 team in the playoffs, and in 83 they were a +10.7 team. That's a lot of lift for a top level team, and when combined with his impact in Houston prior* it paints a clear picture of how great he was.

*Couldn't fit it in there but the Rockets went from being a -0.4 team in 82 to a -11.1 team replacing him with Caldwell Jones, and losing their second best player to an early retirement.

In 83 Philly was a +8.8 team at full strength including the postseason. Overall in their postseason run, the man who promised a fo' fo' fo' sweep averaged 31/16/2 on 63 TS% (1.5 spg and 2 bpg) in a sweep against NY, had 2 hiccups against Milwaukee with a dud in game 1 and their game 4 loss but he still averaged 22/14/1 on 57 TS% (1.4 spg, 2.2 bpg), and vastly outplayed Kareem (who was in his prime but quickly headed out) averaging 26/18/2 on 56 TS% (1.5 spg, 1.5 bpg) arguably outplaying him all 4 games, depending on how you feel about game 2.

I think when you take his postseason performance, impact metrics, and the portability of his game into account he comes out ahead of a lot of bigs we naturally assume are better than Moses.

Not sure about using '83 Rockets as a valid comp, even leaving aside tanking claims, 8 players played 1000 or more minutes in '82, ditto for '83. Of those 3 are constant (Hayes, Leavell, Murphy). Ignoring Malone and replacement (Jones) ... you've got 1 holdover demotion (Henderson), 3 totally out players out (Reid, Willoughby, Dunleavy) and 4 totally new players in (Walker, Bryant, Bailey, Teagle).
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#48 » by euroleague » Wed Aug 7, 2019 9:00 pm

1. Steph Curry 16
2. Bill Walton 77
3. David Robinson 94 - Hard to choose exactly which year of DRob, but in 94 he did basically everything at a high level. The offensive and defensive load he carried was enormous, and despite it not being his team's best year, it seems to have been his best year in terms of overall production and impact on his team. Will elaborate more later
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#49 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 7, 2019 9:35 pm

Owly wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Moses Malone is a player pretty regularly underrated in general. First he's a super athlete. One of the best ever and it's kinda odd people don't mention him when talking about the most athletic players ever. Look at this:



He's up and down fast, agile, smooth, and probably one of the 5 strongest players in league history. Secondly his offensive game was more diverse than people act like it is. Usually you see him boxed in as a power player but he wasn't a bullyball guy exclusively. Honestly outside of his boards he relied on his superior speed and not his size to score (this is from 2 years prior but still).



His wide amount of skills meant that no matter who his opponent his performance was consistent, which is his biggest positive I think. From 79 to 85 he played 3 series against defenses that were -4 or better in the playoffs. He averaged 27.0/13.7/2.1 on 55.5 TS% with a 7.3 TOV% and 122 ORTG. That's a +20 rORTG. Head to head against Kareem in the playoffs he averaged 28.1/17.9/2.4 on 56 TS% vs Kareem's 24.9/11.4/3.4 on 56 TS%, going 6-1 in their 2 series against each other in 81 and 83. Basically we have evidence his resilient game gave great defenses fits.

Defensively people crap on Moses but honestly given he replaced Caldwell Jones in Philly (1st team all defense in 81 and 82), and the defense was slightly better than in 82, and he made 1st team all defense, I can see an argument for him being a very good, just not all time great, defender.

Now that's about his game, because I think it's misrepresented overall. Let's get into his impact which seems to be top tier in 83. First we have +/- estimates from 83 thanks to fpliii who got a bunch of old sixers media guides and uploaded the pages a few years ago. What we ended up with was:

Code: Select all

         On   Off   Net
Malone   11.5   -4.1   15.6
Cheeks   12.8   -1.4   14.1
Erving   11.4   1.1   10.3
Toney   10.8   1.7   9.1
B. Jones   13.6   2.6   11.0
Iavaroni   8.1   7.0   1.1
C. Johnson   2.9   8.4   -5.4
Richardson   0.8   12.7   -11.9



Offense (O Rating)

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Malone   110.5   102.3   8.2
Cheeks   109.4   106.5   2.9
Erving   111.1   103.9   7.2
Toney   111.2   103.6   7.6
B. Jones   113.8   104.0   9.7
Iavaroni   105.2   110.4   -5.2
C. Johnson   100.8   109.9   -9.1
Richardson   104.2   111.6   -7.4


Defense:

Code: Select all

   On    Off   Net
Malone   98.9   106.4   -7.4
Cheeks   96.7   107.9   -11.2
Erving   99.7   102.8   -3.1
Toney   100.3   101.8   -1.5
B. Jones   100.2   101.5   -1.3
Iavaroni   97.2   103.5   -6.3
C. Johnson   97.9   101.5   -3.6
Richardson   103.4   98.9   4.5


So not amazing, next level +/- numbers but definitely great enough numbers to be included with the people we're considering at this spot. You can also look at Philly's play in the 82 postseason where they lost in the Finals and 83 when they won. In 82 they were a +6.3 team in the playoffs, and in 83 they were a +10.7 team. That's a lot of lift for a top level team, and when combined with his impact in Houston prior* it paints a clear picture of how great he was.

*Couldn't fit it in there but the Rockets went from being a -0.4 team in 82 to a -11.1 team replacing him with Caldwell Jones, and losing their second best player to an early retirement.

In 83 Philly was a +8.8 team at full strength including the postseason. Overall in their postseason run, the man who promised a fo' fo' fo' sweep averaged 31/16/2 on 63 TS% (1.5 spg and 2 bpg) in a sweep against NY, had 2 hiccups against Milwaukee with a dud in game 1 and their game 4 loss but he still averaged 22/14/1 on 57 TS% (1.4 spg, 2.2 bpg), and vastly outplayed Kareem (who was in his prime but quickly headed out) averaging 26/18/2 on 56 TS% (1.5 spg, 1.5 bpg) arguably outplaying him all 4 games, depending on how you feel about game 2.

I think when you take his postseason performance, impact metrics, and the portability of his game into account he comes out ahead of a lot of bigs we naturally assume are better than Moses.

Not sure about using '83 Rockets as a valid comp, even leaving aside tanking claims, 8 players played 1000 or more minutes in '82, ditto for '83. Of those 3 are constant (Hayes, Leavell, Murphy). Ignoring Malone and replacement (Jones) ... you've got 1 holdover demotion (Henderson), 3 totally out players out (Reid, Willoughby, Dunleavy) and 4 totally new players in (Walker, Bryant, Bailey, Teagle).

Good point, and they clearly tanked (I don't think any -11 team hasn't), but I still think it has some relevance here. Definitely should've mentioned they got more than Jones back though.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#50 » by No-more-rings » Thu Aug 8, 2019 12:18 am

E-Balla wrote:Moses Malone is a player pretty regularly underrated in general. First he's a super athlete. One of the best ever and it's kinda odd people don't mention him when talking about the most athletic players ever. Look at this:



He's up and down fast, agile, smooth, and probably one of the 5 strongest players in league history. Secondly his offensive game was more diverse than people act like it is. Usually you see him boxed in as a power player but he wasn't a bullyball guy exclusively. Honestly outside of his boards he relied on his superior speed and not his size to score (this is from 2 years prior but still).



His wide amount of skills meant that no matter who his opponent his performance was consistent, which is his biggest positive I think. From 79 to 85 he played 3 series against defenses that were -4 or better in the playoffs. He averaged 27.0/13.7/2.1 on 55.5 TS% with a 7.3 TOV% and 122 ORTG. That's a +20 rORTG. Head to head against Kareem in the playoffs he averaged 28.1/17.9/2.4 on 56 TS% vs Kareem's 24.9/11.4/3.4 on 56 TS%, going 6-1 in their 2 series against each other in 81 and 83. Basically we have evidence his resilient game gave great defenses fits.

Defensively people crap on Moses but honestly given he replaced Caldwell Jones in Philly (1st team all defense in 81 and 82), and the defense was slightly better than in 82, and he made 1st team all defense, I can see an argument for him being a very good, just not all time great, defender.

Now that's about his game, because I think it's misrepresented overall. Let's get into his impact which seems to be top tier in 83. First we have +/- estimates from 83 thanks to fpliii who got a bunch of old sixers media guides and uploaded the pages a few years ago. What we ended up with was:

Code: Select all

         On   Off   Net
Malone   11.5   -4.1   15.6
Cheeks   12.8   -1.4   14.1
Erving   11.4   1.1   10.3
Toney   10.8   1.7   9.1
B. Jones   13.6   2.6   11.0
Iavaroni   8.1   7.0   1.1
C. Johnson   2.9   8.4   -5.4
Richardson   0.8   12.7   -11.9



Offense (O Rating)

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Malone   110.5   102.3   8.2
Cheeks   109.4   106.5   2.9
Erving   111.1   103.9   7.2
Toney   111.2   103.6   7.6
B. Jones   113.8   104.0   9.7
Iavaroni   105.2   110.4   -5.2
C. Johnson   100.8   109.9   -9.1
Richardson   104.2   111.6   -7.4


Defense:

Code: Select all

   On    Off   Net
Malone   98.9   106.4   -7.4
Cheeks   96.7   107.9   -11.2
Erving   99.7   102.8   -3.1
Toney   100.3   101.8   -1.5
B. Jones   100.2   101.5   -1.3
Iavaroni   97.2   103.5   -6.3
C. Johnson   97.9   101.5   -3.6
Richardson   103.4   98.9   4.5


So not amazing, next level +/- numbers but definitely great enough numbers to be included with the people we're considering at this spot. You can also look at Philly's play in the 82 postseason where they lost in the Finals and 83 when they won. In 82 they were a +6.3 team in the playoffs, and in 83 they were a +10.7 team. That's a lot of lift for a top level team, and when combined with his impact in Houston prior* it paints a clear picture of how great he was.

*Couldn't fit it in there but the Rockets went from being a -0.4 team in 82 to a -11.1 team replacing him with Caldwell Jones, and losing their second best player to an early retirement.

In 83 Philly was a +8.8 team at full strength including the postseason. Overall in their postseason run, the man who promised a fo' fo' fo' sweep averaged 31/16/2 on 63 TS% (1.5 spg and 2 bpg) in a sweep against NY, had 2 hiccups against Milwaukee with a dud in game 1 and their game 4 loss but he still averaged 22/14/1 on 57 TS% (1.4 spg, 2.2 bpg), and vastly outplayed Kareem (who was in his prime but quickly headed out) averaging 26/18/2 on 56 TS% (1.5 spg, 1.5 bpg) arguably outplaying him all 4 games, depending on how you feel about game 2.

I think when you take his postseason performance, impact metrics, and the portability of his game into account he comes out ahead of a lot of bigs we naturally assume are better than Moses.

This is pretty good, but i still have concerns about Moses’ poor passing and how he creates pretty much exclusively for himself. I mean sure he’s going to boost a team’s offense through his scoring, but i still feel like this kind of caps your offense if Moses is your centerpiece. And i also know that his style certainly wouldn’t translate to an elite offense today, but i also understand if you don’t use that in your evaluation. And their offense even got slightly worse with him in 83 than in 82 with Erving taking up more offensive primacy.

And honestly while the on/off stuff looks good, the gap between him and some of the other top guys on his team is not all that special or what you’d expect for someone having this supposed amount of impact.

And to how much better they performed in the 83 playoffs, opposed to 82, well i’d imagine not having to play a 63 win Celtics team probably helped, and for the lift he gave them I don’t see people give KD a big bonus for bolstering the Warriors playoff performance from 16 to 17.

How do you reconcile all of this?
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#51 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 1:17 am

freethedevil wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:Alright, side-stepping that, given that I do not think we are being especially clear on the comparative numbers (generally speaking, if something is not immediately available on a player’s basketball-reference page, I would prefer a link), what do you make of this (http://www.backpicks.com/2018/06/10/aupm-2-0-the-top-playoff-performers-of-the-databall-era/)?

That covers thee year stetches, not single season ones. As a result, injuries in 18 and 16, have taken out his 16-18 stretch and replaced it with his 13-15 stretch, so the list really doesn't say much regarding his 2017 playoffs, which backpicks rates much higher than any of the other three post seasons. In fact if you look at the visual, you'll see curry's 2017 postseason is a +6(purple). The people you voted for are had lower peaks per that graph. And that graph measures impact, it does not take into account portability,


1. That is not what that visual says. It is right in the title: three-year, and obviously the numbers of dots do not match the number of playoff appearances. That said, I am confused as to why Curry has a purple dot when Elgee says his peak three-year did not hit plus six.

2. Being a three-year measure, knowing that the 2013-15 period os his best makes the others easier to approximate. Right away, we know that 2013 > 2016 in terms of postseason impact (yet another condemnation of those voting for 2016). It gets trickier for 2017; either 2016 was so bad that it totally overwhelms 2017 being his best year... or we are overrating 2017. There is also the possibility we are overrating 2015 and underrating 2013 or 2014 (or both). This would be clearer if we knew how each three-year stretch rated, and I really wish that data had been provided.

3. You honed in on Curry without considering the other implications. This seems to support Westbrook more strongly, but we have no one even thinking about backing Westbrook yet. This also says a lot about peak Ray Allen, but again, no chance of backing (nor any for Reggie, who at his postseason peak was certainly better than Ray). Similar point for Kidd, or even for 2005 Manu. And most tellingly, you ignored Draymond rating even better (but we will get to that).

4. I already said I feel portability is being overrated. Curry being a second or third or fourth option that basically everyone does not mean much this high on the peaks project.

Right which is why I mentioned his portability after i noted he broke impact stats. "Ability" is relevant as to how high you can raise a team, portability is relevant, is to how well you can raise better and better teams. Curry's 2017 was more impactful AND was of a more portable player. Hence why i dont' see the case for those three.


If impact stats and portability were all that mattered, Garnett should have been even higher. I am not tracking personal votes right now, so if you were/are also a Garnett/Robinson backer, then that is consistent. Speaking of Robinson, the post-injury impact numbers suggest a lot about his peak RAPM in the playoffs, especially in comparison with Curry.

Actually, draymond green is not portable. His impact is that of one of the best players ever(he too has broken +/-), but his game doesn't scale well in most circumstances. Impact would tell you he's better than kd, but his game doesn't fit as well on a variety of teams because he isn't a great scoring threat(which greatly limits the effect of his passing), and his defense wouldn't be as valuable on most teams as he isn't that great at rim protection. Impact #'s say he's a top 7 player, but he isn't really top ten in most contexts. That's a definition of a less portable player.


That is a very disingenuous framing. Draymond is great at rim protection... for a forward. He only fails there if you compare him to full-time centres.

And we do not know any other context. Simply dismissing his impact metrics because they do not correspond to your personal perception is not exactly a strong case for your lack of bias here. Again, he is far and away the league’s best postseason defender and is one of the league’s three best passing bigs. The numbers speak for themselves, but the same numbers being used to back Curry are disregarded because, Oh, Curry is portable. Well, gee, I guess Curry should have been top three after all, because he is in the profoundly rare position of having the impact metrics and “portability”.

More importantly, I think we have plenty of intuitive reason that should show us that scalability is not the ultimate measure.

Which is why I mentioned both imapct AND scalability Curry was both more imapctful AND more scalable. I don't see the argument for less imapctful AND less portable players.


See above. The combination of those two concepts is far, far, far from the whole story.

Garnett is more scalable than Duncan, but that does not make him a better player (or at least not in the playoffs). Really, Garnett is more scalable than basically every other top guy from Kareem to Curry. But that does not make him by default the best.

Yes, because he's not as imapctful. This is not the case for curry.


He is still pretty massively impactful, to the point where it can at least be a point of uncertainty how he would fare in those metrics compared to Bird or Magic or Kareem or Hakeem.

Dirk has incredibly scalable offence, as does Nash. Not immediately top tier guys because of it. But maybe I need to make this more disparate.

Actually it isn't. He's a non factor defensively and isn't a great passer, so compare3d to atg, he's not a very scalable player.


A.) This is a gross misunderstanding of what Dirk adds to teams. There is a wide base of support suggesting his gravity operated similarly (although not to the same extent) as Curry.

B.) I see you glossing over Nash. But admittedly that backpicks article did him no particular favours (which could be an issue in itself).

Davis is probably more scalable than either Malone; is he better than them? Going back to Draymond, is he right to say he is maybe the greatest defender ever because of how scalable he is? I mean, if we gave Russell a top eight spot for his defence and smart offence, how soon will we see Draymond?

Draymond's impact is literally not even in the stratosphere of Russell's. No one's is:
Image
The celtics were meh offensively despite russell being surrounded with offense first players, But their defense was nearly twice as good as any defense ever. The team had a -srs without him and was atg with him. Also, russell doesn't have scalability issues. Because of there being n three point shot defense was more important than offense in the 60's.


Dodging the point. I was not saying Draymond was literally as good as Russell. I was saying we have established that sort of profile is worthy of a top peak, yet Draymond is still not even close to being on the radar. And I have already said what I think of Draymond’s so-called “scalability issues”.

Scalability is nice to a point, but the idea of Curry’s value stemming in large part from how he helps his teammates works in large part because his teammates are awesome. We have watched plenty of players get nowhere despite opening things up for their offensively inept teammates; Curry has never had that test in any meaningful sample size. So we compare him to peak Wade and peak Kobe, who maintained consistent scoring production (in a way Curry has often failed to do in the playoffs, especially in 2016) while carrying a large load on defence (as guards, sure, but obviously doing more than Curry) and being the main passing engine (Curry splits with Draymond). And in the playoffs, I think that matters.

Except again, his awsome teammates all play worse without him. And if you think it's a system thing, we can just look at kd whose effiency without curry are comprable to his okc effiency while his effiency with curry blows it out of the park. It is harder to make better players play much better than worse players. And yet curry's improvement on these players was more than any of the udes you listed. It is harder to raise a three story building up than a two story buildign and yet curry lifted the three story building by more. That is BOTH an edge in quality AND scalability.


... You are basically just looking at spacing. Which is Curry’s value, yes, but this talk about it being “unprecedented” at the top is nonsense when it is a concept that has been around for years, e.g. Ray, Reggie, Dirk... The difference is, those shooters were giving space to bad shooters, while Curry is giving spacing to Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. You say it is harder to impact at the top, but there are plenty of role-players who opened things up for star teammates. That was the entire purpose of Korver and Jefferson on the Cavaliers, and the result was maybe the greatest offence in NBA history. And obviously Curry is not just a role-player, but his spacing – i.e. fulfilling the role of a supercharged roleplayer – should not be the entire case for him at his peak.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#52 » by DatAsh » Thu Aug 8, 2019 2:48 am

77 Walton is still my number one

Enjoying the Curry and Robinson talk. Both guys have changed positions for me.

It's a shame Curry got injured in 2016, as that would likely be a top 5ish peak for me, and the GOAT offensive season. With the injury and poor finals play, it's not even top 50 most likely(I've got 2016 Draymond over 2016 Curry). 2017 is still really great though, and that's the year I'll most likely be going with.

I don't think I'm quite ready for Moses yet with some of the players left on the board.

Someone mentioned Draymond, which is interesting, as I was gonna probably start bringing him up pretty soon. He's one of the most scalable superstars ever at his peak, as most of his impact came from defense, and his offensive value was mostly a product of his passing and spacing(3pt shooting). There are still a few guys left on the table that I have over him, but he'll be coming up soon for me.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#53 » by freethedevil » Thu Aug 8, 2019 2:56 am

liamliam1234 wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:
1. That is not what that visual says. It is right in the title: three-year, and obviously the numbers of dots do not match the number of playoff appearances. That said, I am confused as to why Curry has a purple dot when Elgee says his peak three-year did not hit plus six.

The dots are all singular seasons. His 2017 season is a purple. The other seasons aren't. So as far as "single season peaks go", if you want to use that, curry's season is, much higher than any of the seasons you've lusted,
2. Being a three-year measure, knowing that the 2013-15 period os his best makes the others easier to approximate. Right away, we know that 2013 > 2016 in terms of postseason impact (yet another condemnation of those voting for 2016). It gets trickier for 2017; either 2016 was so bad that it totally overwhelms 2017 being his best year... or we are overrating 2017. There is also the possibility we are overrating 2015 and underrating 2013 or 2014 (or both). This would be clearer if we knew how each three-year stretch rated, and I really wish that data had been provided.

How is 2016 relevant to 2017? The data has been provided, the metric you're using has his 2017 much higher than the other peaks,If you don't like it, fine, but you can't honestly use that data as an argument against 2017 curry when it clearly has 2017 curry well above the peaks you've listed. His three year score simply isn't relevant to this thread.
3. You honed in on Curry without considering the other implications. This seems to support Westbrook more strongly, but we have no one even thinking about backing Westbrook yet. This also says a lot about peak Ray Allen, but again, no chance of backing (nor any for Reggie, who at his postseason peak was certainly better than Ray). Similar point for Kidd, or even for 2005 Manu. And most tellingly, you ignored Draymond rating even better (but we will get to that).

Fam, you were the one who brought this up. You can't use a set of data, and then disregard what the data you're using says. Dramond green was healthy, while curry missed playoff games and had injuries in 2016 and 2018. Westbrook had massive imapct, but he also did so on a far worse team. Curry's 2017 impact came on a far better team. Elevating a great team is harder than elevating a lesser team by the same amount. Westbrook isn't being considered because his team was terrible comapred to the other people on this list.

Your own, and frankly the only argument you've made so far, is based on evidence that contradicts your argument. You say "kobe, wade and robinson" were "higher quality" players. Now make a case. Explain how players who

1. were less successful
2. are less portable
3. and have less of an impact

were better than 2017 Curry.
4. I already said I feel portability is being overrated. Curry being a second or third or fourth option that basically everyone does not mean much this high on the peaks project.

Fortunately we also have
1. team success
2. impact
also strongly favoring curry.

So again, what is the argument for any of the seasons you've mentioned. Saying they were "higher quality" isn't an argument. What makes less successful, less imapctful, and less portable seasons better?
Right which is why I mentioned his portability after i noted he broke impact stats. "Ability" is relevant as to how high you can raise a team, portability is relevant, is to how well you can raise better and better teams. Curry's 2017 was more impactful AND was of a more portable player. Hence why i dont' see the case for those three.

If impact stats and portability were all that mattered, Garnett should have been even higher. I am not tracking personal votes right now, so if you were/are also a Garnett/Robinson backer, then that is consistent. Speaking of Robinson, the post-injury impact numbers suggest a lot about his peak RAPM in the playoffs, especially in comparison with Curry.

A. Fallacy is fallacious:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

I don't care what other people think. If you have an argument that any of the seasons you've listed are "higher quality" than curry's 2017, make it. If you can't make that argument, or cite such an argument from the other people's votes, then what they voted isn't relevant.

Curry won more in 2017. He impacted the game more in 2017. He was more portable in 2017. What did kobe do more of? What did wade do more of? What did these players do that makes their seasons more impressive than 2017? Looking for squeaks in curry's case does not suffice as a case for th eplayers you've listed. You have to actually make the case they're "higher quality players"


That is a very disingenuous framing. Draymond is great at rim protection... for a forward. He only fails there if you compare him to full-time centres.

Huh? Why does it matter if he's great at rim protection for a forward or a center? He is a player whose impact is mostly contingent on defense who doesn't protect the rim as well as the best of his contemporaries. On most teams that is the most important thing for players who derive most of their impact on defense. I am not "simply dismissing" his metrics, I am explaining to you specifc limitations that are hidden in gsw. Forwards are typically good scoring threats. Green isn't. Defensive anchors usually need to be great rim protectors, draymond doesn't. Draymond is a great passing but he doesn't space the floor limiting the effectiveness of his own skill in most situations. Whether I'm biased or not doesn't matter. If any of the above isn't true then refute it.
And we do not know any other context. Simply dismissing his impact metrics because they do not correspond to your personal perception is not exactly a strong case for your lack of bias here. Again, he is far and away the league’s best postseason defender and is one of the league’s three best passing bigs. The numbers speak for themselves, but the same numbers being used to back Curry are disregarded because, Oh, Curry is portable. Well, gee, I guess Curry should have been top three after all, because he is in the profoundly rare position of having the impact metrics and “portability”.

This is just baseless claims and strawmen.

Based on what is draymond "far and away the league's best postseason defender"? Embid, Giannis both outperformed him in dpipm and anchored much better defenses. Gobert completely outperformed him against the rockets defensively. I didn't question his passing, i said he doesn't space the floor do to his lack of a threat reducing the effectiveness of his passing.

And "curry has a top 3 peak"? Who said that?I said he has a higher peak than the three players you've listed. And you've made about zero arguments for why they were "higher quality" than Curry's 2017 season.

See above. The combination of those two concepts is far, far, far from the whole story.

Unfortuantely, you have yet to bring up anything outside of winning(favors 2017 curry), imapct(favors 2017 curry), and portability(2017 curry), so frankly I don't know what part of the story has convinced you curry's peak was below kobe's, wade's
Yes, because he's not as imapctful. This is not the case for curry.


He is still pretty massively impactful, to the point where it can at least be a point of uncertainty how he would fare in those metrics compared to Bird or Magic or Kareem or Hakeem.

Actually it isn't. He's a non factor defensively and isn't a great passer, so compare3d to atg, he's not a very scalable player.


A.) This is a gross misunderstanding of what Dirk adds to teams. There is a wide base of support suggesting his gravity operated similarly (although not to the same extent) as Curry.

B.) I see you glossing over Nash. But admittedly that backpicks article did him no particular favours (which could be an issue in itself).

Draymond's impact is literally not even in the stratosphere of Russell's. No one's is:
Image
The celtics were meh offensively despite russell being surrounded with offense first players, But their defense was nearly twice as good as any defense ever. The team had a -srs without him and was atg with him. Also, russell doesn't have scalability issues. Because of there being n three point shot defense was more important than offense in the 60's.


Dodging the point. I was not saying Draymond was literally as good as Russell. I was saying we have established that sort of profile is worthy of a top peak, yet Draymond is still not even close to being on the radar. And I have already said what I think of Draymond’s so-called “scalability issues”.

Except again, his awsome teammates all play worse without him. And if you think it's a system thing, we can just look at kd whose effiency without curry are comprable to his okc effiency while his effiency with curry blows it out of the park. It is harder to make better players play much better than worse players. And yet curry's improvement on these players was more than any of the udes you listed. It is harder to raise a three story building up than a two story buildign and yet curry lifted the three story building by more. That is BOTH an edge in quality AND scalability.

... You are basically just looking at spacing. Which is Curry’s value, yes, but this talk about it being “unprecedented” at the top is nonsense when it is a concept that has been around for years, e.g. Ray, Reggie, Dirk... The difference is, those shooters were giving space to bad shooters, while Curry is giving spacing to Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.

Oh dear. does this sound right to you: You are basically just looking at scoring, which is jordan's value but this talk of being "unpredecented at the top is nonsense when it is a concept that has been around for years. jesus.

Okay lets list curry's value:
-> He's more effecient, more prolific and shoots from farther(forces defenses more up) than any of the three you've listed. Therefore his spacing, much like jordan to his predeccors in terms of scoring, is unprecedented. He is also...

a better ball handler
better passer
a vastly better scorer
Much better off the ball


As for your "good shooter point" again. These effiency splits are based on subtracting the end result with the lower end result. So if klay is a great shooter already, than increasing his effiency won't be any easier than increasing a ineffecient shooter, because we're not comparing the end product, we're comparing how much they improved. If you want to throw out durant playing with a top playmaker in westbrook do to a lack of shooting fine. We can just compare him on the warriors where without curry, despite having great spacing, his effiency has plummeted.

You say it is harder to impact at the top, but there are plenty of role-players who opened things up for star teammates. That was the entire purpose of Korver and Jefferson on the Cavaliers, and the result was maybe the greatest offence in NBA history

except lebron's impact on korver and jefferson's effiency is far stronger than their impact on him. This example makes no sense.

. And obviously Curry is not just a role-player, but his spacing – i.e. fulfilling the role of a supercharged roleplayer – should not be the entire case for him at his peak.

Huh?

His case is
-> His team was the goat team
-> His impact was much higher(this is overlal, not just spacing)
-> He can fit on any offense

You deciding to equate imapct with effiency splits is ludicrous. However, you're telling me being more successful, more imapctful, and a better fit isn't enough for curry to be higher than the three players you've listed.

So I'll ask again,

what is their argument? What parts of the story do kobe, robinson, and wade's season have that overrules the winning, impact, and fit of 2017 curry
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#54 » by freethedevil » Thu Aug 8, 2019 3:05 am

Timmyyy wrote:
WarriorGM wrote:Curry's season lost value for only making it to the finals but for some reason KG not even getting that far gets a pass because he played "great" whatever that means. And despite this ambiguous at best state of affairs in the post-season we should just ignore the regular season. So to sum up Curry advanced further in the post season and Curry had a better regular season despite it being KG's only MVP season but it was KG's year. I count at least two logical inconsistencies there. But great we have confidence in KG being superior anyway because he was able to have another MVP year right? Uh no. More titles? Nope. More finals appearances? No again. Well...at least KG has longevity.


Yeah exact, CURRY'S value is his TEAM'S result :nonono: , we ignore that he played significantly worse in the PO's because he is Stephen Curry (you won't understand it I guess).
You should not ignore RS, you should evaluate both RS and PO, but you don't, you only look at RS for 16.
Curry advanced further because of his team not because of him alone.
Where do you get that Curry had the better RS? KG is better according to every RAPM number there is. KG literally had to anchor both defense and offense and still had the higher impact. I don't care about MVP's. KG was MVP level multiple times (2003 though Duncan deserved it and 2008).
What inconsistencies? KG was better in the RS and in the PO's for me resulting in a higher peak. Sorry that I do not look at the team success only to evaluate single players, but inconsistent? Nah.
MVP? Narrative. Titles and Finals? Team accomplishments.

WarriorGM wrote:Pffft. As if Magic and Bird didn't have the greatest teams you could ask for. You also seem to miss that Curry can claim not only a higher regular season peak but also a higher playoffs peak than Magic and Bird.

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/EQ3Qy

Curry is currently in the top two for playoffs TS% among all top scorers in NBA history. He is also currently in the top ten all-time for playoffs ppg in a career as well as in finals ppg in a career. That's higher than Kobe, Nowitzki, Kareem, Malone, Shaq, Dr.J, etc. as well as Magic and Bird.


Yeah ok, since it is your favorite player we are allowed to mix 17 and 16 in a peaks project, alright.

WarriorGM wrote:Then Magic, Bird, Russell and maybe even Wilt shouldn't be ahead of him.


You are only black and white, aren't you? I want to extract the impact a guy has on his team. Curry had a great one, but it is not 'he had the best team = he is the best player' like you want it to be. The exact same standard I apply for the other guys.

WarriorGM wrote:Basically you're saying Curry was lucky that a team fell into his lap that was better than all the other teams in history including teams that were planned and constructed with the goal of being a superteam. Such luck!


Nope. I said he was fortunate with the situation he had and how certain things played out, but I have the biggest respect for him taking advantage of the situation. Opposed to you who just want to give all the credit to Curry (hey, Dray developed into a monster player! Let's credit Curry for it since Dray was only a 2nd round pick :noway: ).



Ok so we rather take the raw data, since the superior adjusted data doesn't show your favorite player in front.

WarriorGM wrote:But as noted some of those other guys did have the luxury even longer than Curry and others eventually did get the luxury and still weren't able to produce more or better.


Teams aren't grouped in good or bad. It is a continuum and Curry had the luck to be on the absolute elite side of things. The others may have had good teams at some point but 1-12 the Warriors from 15-19 might be the best team ever. Curry was part of it, not all of it (for the 1000's time).

WarriorGM wrote:I am responding to clear logical inconsistencies. I'm providing statistics and facts in response to general feelings. Someone above referred to how a "proper appreciation of KG's defense" should quickly dismiss any Curry comparisons for example.
I would note a proper appreciation of KG's defense saw him defeated in short order while a proper appreciation of Curry's offense on the other hand has required the development of new defensive tactics that have seen big men like KG looking less and less important. I will respond to contempt in equal measure.


There are no logical inconsistencies no matter how much you would like to see them. I see things different, I don't judge players based on how their teams do, I apply context look at +/-, on/off, WOWY , on court ratings, team ratings, analyze with my eye.
Sometimes my results don't align with the PURE TEAM RESULTS, you are using. So it's no wonder it is inconsistent according to your criteria since I apply a completely different criteria.
You provided team statistics and facts. You would make a great argument for the Warriors being the best team of all time, not for Curry being the best.
I did mostly use my general feeling because I didn't argue my own points and I just wanted you to be a bit more open minded for the other side. But if you want numbers look how KG is way better in the RAPM category than Curry while having a clearly bigger load to handle being the best offensive and defensive player for his team. But hey he didn't even reach the finals right?

I want to let you know that I will drop this. I had such discussions multiple times. Guys with obvious screen names, not willing to give an inch even if it is sooo obvious that their player has flaw x or y, arguing with narratives, MVP's, rings and whatever.

I gave you a lot of thought processes why someone could see Curry lower than you see him, I gave you data that supports KG over Curry. I tried to give you a POV outside of team results and I tried to show you that I am not here to talk down Curry, that there isn't only black and white regarding the team results and who we are supposed to give credit.

All I took away from you is that you repeated the same points 3 times.

Such a discussion isn't giving me anything.

This is all fine. But how do any of these arguments hold against 2017 curry.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#55 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 8, 2019 3:46 am

No-more-rings wrote:This is pretty good, but i still have concerns about Moses’ poor passing and how he creates pretty much exclusively for himself. I mean sure he’s going to boost a team’s offense through his scoring, but i still feel like this kind of caps your offense if Moses is your centerpiece. And i also know that his style certainly wouldn’t translate to an elite offense today, but i also understand if you don’t use that in your evaluation. And their offense even got slightly worse with him in 83 than in 82 with Erving taking up more offensive primacy.

Moses still led a +5 offense in 79 but I do agree he might have a ceiling. Still that ceiling is a #1 offense still so I don't know how worried I am about that when I think he raises the floor a ton and keeps his same impact in the postseason and against thought defenses (which is where that floor raising comes in handy).

I also don't agree with you on his offense not being impactful today because I think back on Dwight Howard and he's nothing compared to Moses. Still was a strong offensive player capable of being the centerpiece of a good offense.

You are right about their offense in the regular season in 83 but their postseason offense improved in 83 compared to prior. Still I do think him and Doc clashed a little and it affected his impact on that offense (and Doc's).

And honestly while the on/off stuff looks good, the gap between him and some of the other top guys on his team is not all that special or what you’d expect for someone having this supposed amount of impact.

True but that's the reason why he wasn't in the top class. Like I said his +/- numbers are in line with the guys being considered at this level.

And to how much better they performed in the 83 playoffs, opposed to 82, well i’d imagine not having to play a 63 win Celtics team probably helped, and for the lift he gave them I don’t see people give KD a big bonus for bolstering the Warriors playoff performance from 16 to 17.

How do you reconcile all of this?

The net rating is already adjusted for opponent so I don't see how who they played changed things. They played great opponents too. The Knicks we're a +2.6 team with a great defense and Bernard King, the Bucks were a +4.3 team that swept the +5.3 Celtics (the 82 Celtics were +6.3), and we already know how the Lakers were.

The gap between Moses and KD in my opinion is that KD has a way more loaded team. Moses' team was loaded of course. I mean Doc was a top 5 player easily, Toney was borderline top 30, and Cheeks was a top 10 PG. But that's just not comparable to having 2 other top 15 players, including one better than you, and another top 20ish player in Klay. Plus Philly kept falling short. Moses took them well over the edge. Golden State already won 2 years prior to KD and their competition in 2017, thanks to gutted competition and Kawhi's injury just wasn't like it was in 2016 where they played 2 of the best teams to never win a ring, and the Cavs who won it all over 3 of the best teams to never win a ring.

I just think while Moses is the closest person to compare to KD, it doesn't mean what it meant for both teams is the same. For Golden State adding KD meant that no one was even close to them. Look at how much they outplayed the Cavs who steamrolled the playoffs. I find it hard to file out impact when it's that easy for them.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#56 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 3:58 am

Edit: you messed up the quoting again; will respond to the other stuff as I edit.
Edit2: Done.
Edit3: Since you have such a difficult time remembering...
We have watched plenty of players get nowhere despite opening things up for their offensively inept teammates; Curry has never had that test in any meaningful sample size. So we compare him to peak Wade and peak Kobe, who maintained consistent scoring production (in a way Curry has often failed to do in the playoffs, especially in 2016) while carrying a large load on defence (as guards, sure, but obviously doing more than Curry) and being the main passing engine (Curry splits with Draymond). And in the playoffs, I think that matters.


Now onto the response.

freethedevil wrote:The dots are all singular seasons. His 2017 season is a purple. The other seasons aren't. So as far as "single season peaks go", if you want to use that, curry's season is, much higher than any of the seasons you've lusted,


That is explicitly not what the graph says. The dots are white if below 3 RAPM, so you can literally count and figure out they are not individual.

freethedevil wrote:How is 2016 relevant to 2017? The data has been provided, the metric you're using has his 2017 much higher than the other peaks,If you don't like it, fine, but you can't honestly use that data as an argument against 2017 curry when it clearly has 2017 curry well above the peaks you've listed. His three year score simply isn't relevant to this thread.


Again, you pretty clearly are misreading the graph. And I explained how you could logic out a potential conclusion, or at least a question, by knowing his three-year peak was 2013-15.

Fam, you were the one who brought this up. You can't use a set of data, and then disregard what the data you're using says. Dramond green was healthy, while curry missed playoff games and had injuries in 2016 and 2018.


So was Draymond’s three-year playoff peak better than Curry’s average from 2013-15?

Westbrook had massive imapct, but he also did so on a far worse team. Curry's 2017 impact came on a far better team. Elevating a great team is harder than elevating a lesser team by the same amount. Westbrook isn't being considered because his team was terrible comapred to the other people on this list.


And yet Curry, Durant, and Draymond all rate highly together.

Your own, and frankly the only argument you've made so far, is based on evidence that contradicts your argument. You say "kobe, wade and robinson" were "higher quality" players. Now make a case. Explain how players who

1. were less successful
2. are less portable
3. and have less of an impact

were better than 2017 Curry.

Fortunately we also have
1. team success
2. impact
also strongly favoring curry.

So again, what is the argument for any of the seasons you've mentioned. Saying they were "higher quality" isn't an argument. What makes less successful, less imapctful, and less portable seasons better?


Did this at bottom.

A. Fallacy is fallacious:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

I don't care what other people think. If you have an argument that any of the seasons you've listed are "higher quality" than curry's 2017, make it. If you can't make that argument, or cite such an argument from the other people's votes, then what they voted isn't relevant.


I am saying to be consistent you should be arguing for Garnett like that.

Curry won more in 2017. He impacted the game more in 2017. He was more portable in 2017. What did kobe do more of? What did wade do more of? What did these players do that makes their seasons more impressive than 2017? Looking for squeaks in curry's case does not suffice as a case for th eplayers you've listed. You have to actually make the case they're "higher quality players"


Already did.

Huh? Why does it matter if he's great at rim protection for a forward or a center? He is a player whose impact is mostly contingent on defense who doesn't protect the rim as well as the best of his contemporaries. On most teams that is the most important thing for players who derive most of their impact on defense. I am not "simply dismissing" his metrics, I am explaining to you specifc limitations that are hidden in gsw. Forwards are typically good scoring threats. Green isn't. Defensive anchors usually need to be great rim protectors, draymond doesn't. Draymond is a great passing but he doesn't space the floor limiting the effectiveness of his own skill in most situations. Whether I'm biased or not doesn't matter. If any of the above isn't true then refute it.


Why is his impact so high? “Forwards need to score”? Why? Yeah, usually defensive anchors are traditional centres; why is Draymond’s impact so much higher? Why is his impact better despite limited scoring?

This is just baseless claims and strawmen.


Funny projection.

Based on what is draymond "far and away the league's best postseason defender"? Embid, Giannis both outperformed him in dpipm and anchored much better defenses. Gobert completely outperformed him against the rockets defensively. I didn't question his passing, i said he doesn't space the floor do to his lack of a threat reducing the effectiveness of his passing.


Why was his impact higher? (Alright, Embiid was better this postseason; are you arguing him as the best in the game now because he led the postseason in RAPM?) Has Curry fallen off? Without Durant, and sometimes Klay, why did his impact metrics not explode the way you keep saying is true of solo stars with great metrics?

And "curry has a top 3 peak"? Who said that?I said he has a higher peak than the three players you've listed. And you've made about zero arguments for why they were "higher quality" than Curry's 2017 season.


You not reading them does not mean they were not made.

Unfortuantely, you have yet to bring up anything outside of winning(favors 2017 curry), imapct(favors 2017 curry), and portability(2017 curry), so frankly I don't know what part of the story has convinced you curry's peak was below kobe's, wade's


This is all-time level projection.

Oh dear. does this sound right to you: You are basically just looking at scoring, which is jordan's value but this talk of being "unpredecented at the top is nonsense when it is a concept that has been around for years.


What.

Okay lets list curry's value:
-> He's more effecient, more prolific and shoots from farther(forces defenses more up) than any of the three you've listed. Therefore his spacing, much like jordan to his predeccors in terms of scoring, is unprecedented. He is also...

a better ball handler
better passer
a vastly better scorer
Much better off the ball


Not sure I agree but not especially relevant, disagree, disagree (he is more efficient but also has not held up in handling a heavy scoring load nearly as well as Wade/Kobe), agree but possibly offset by mediocre defence.

As for your "good shooter point" again. These effiency splits are based on subtracting the end result with the lower end result. So if klay is a great shooter already, than increasing his effiency won't be any easier than increasing a ineffecient shooter, because we're not comparing the end product, we're comparing how much they improved. If you want to throw out durant playing with a top playmaker in westbrook do to a lack of shooting fine. We can just compare him on the warriors where without curry, despite having great spacing, his effiency has plummeted.


Because Curry is the main source of spacing...

except lebron's impact on korver and jefferson's effiency is far stronger than their impact on him. This example makes no sense.


I am talking about team offence.

Here is another way to think about it: Lebron’s “impact” logically should be consistent regardless of the quality of the shooters, but the team requires players to take advantage of that impact. Curry is the same, except without the passing, defence, and physical dominance (all of which Wade and Kobe have over him). I would take Curry on the Warriors over either of them, but I also would take them on their respective teams over Curry.

freethedevil wrote:Huh?

His case is
-> His team was the goat team
-> His impact was much higher(this is overlal, not just spacing)
-> He can fit on any offense


-> Emphasis on team, so mostly irrelevant here. Is 1996 Jordan his peak? Is 2001 Kobe his peak?
-> Impact metrics are not the deciding factor.
-> A.) Ignores the other half of the game; B.) Fitting on every offence does not mean he fits better as a replacement on every offence. C.) Kobe and especially Wade were perfectly suited to their teams offence.

You deciding to equate imapct with effiency splits is ludicrous. However, you're telling me being more successful, more imapctful, and a better fit isn't enough for curry to be higher than the three players you've listed.


No, because that does not make him a better individual player at his peak.

Since we are really getting into the weeds with RAPM here, I think people really need to start looking at what RAPM tells us. Here is a source. (https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/). Notice how many role-players are there by the team on a year-to-year basis? Notice how all three of Curry, Durant, and Draymond rate incredibly well next to each ither, despite you swearing up and down that should be profoundly difficult? RAPM is interesting, but people need to stop relying on it as some tell all metric.

So I'll ask again,

what is their argument? What parts of the story do kobe, robinson, and wade's season have that overrules the winning, impact, and fit of 2017 curry


I addressed Wade and Kobe previously as players I feel maintain outside of their situation. Not making the Robinson case apart from pointing out inconsistent evaluations as he compares to Curry in impact.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#57 » by WarriorGM » Thu Aug 8, 2019 4:14 am

DatAsh wrote:77 Walton is still my number one

Enjoying the Curry and Robinson talk. Both guys have changed positions for me.

It's a shame Curry got injured in 2016, as that would likely be a top 5ish peak for me, and the GOAT offensive season. With the injury and poor finals play, it's not even top 50 most likely (I've got 2016 Draymond over 2016 Curry). 2017 is still really great though, and that's the year I'll most likely be going with.

[...]

Someone mentioned Draymond, which is interesting, as I was gonna probably start bringing him up pretty soon. He's one of the most scalable superstars ever at his peak, as most of his impact came from defense, and his offensive value was mostly a product of his passing and spacing(3pt shooting). There are still a few guys left on the table that I have over him, but he'll be coming up soon for me.


You think 2016 Draymond on another team could lead it to a championship?
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#58 » by WarriorGM » Thu Aug 8, 2019 5:48 am

Timmyyy wrote: But if you want numbers look how KG is way better in the RAPM category than Curry while having a clearly bigger load to handle being the best offensive and defensive player for his team. But hey he didn't even reach the finals right?


Well will you look at that! The site referenced in an above post for RAPM (https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/) gives the following:

Stephen Curry 2016
Regular Season RAPM: 6.1032
Playoffs RAPM: 1.7193

Kevin Garnett 2004
Regular Season RAPM: 5.8716
Playoffs RAPM: 1.6113

As I suspected Garnett doesn't have an RAPM advantage either. Oh what else is this I see? Sam Cassell had a regular season RAPM of 4.2955 while Wally Szczerbiak had an RAPM in the playoffs of 1.5084 right behind Garnett. But I thought Garnett had trash teammates? So what's left?
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#59 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 5:56 am

I do quickly want to mention that RAPM does not seem to be consistent depending on who is doing the calculation (another reason I am wary of it). I think other people could provide slightly different sources, so I do not think he was lying when he said he had seen calculations favouring Curry.

Also, thanks for taking the link and ignoring the criticisms around it, lol. Specifically after you edited to include my largest criticism (the assessment of mediocre players). I understand he set that RAPM frame, but his broad point that Garnett completely carried his team on both sides still holds true and should have merited more of a response than you gave it. Not looking to interject beyond that; you used something I posted (which is your right), so I just wanted to respond to its usage.
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Re: Peaks project update: #13 

Post#60 » by WarriorGM » Thu Aug 8, 2019 5:59 am

liamliam1234 wrote:I do quickly want to mention that RAPM does not seem to be consistent depending on who is doing the calculation (another reason I am wary of it). I think other people could provide slightly different sources, so I do not think he was lying when he said he had seen calculations favouring Curry.

Also, thanks for taking the link and ignoring the criticisms around it, lol. I understand he set that frame, but his broad point that Garnett completely carried his team on both sides still holds true and should have merited more of a response than you gave it. Not looking to interject beyond that; you used something I posted (which is your right), so I just wanted to respond to its usage.


I was in the middle of an edit that addresses your point. You should see it now. In summary: Garnett's teammates don't look bad at all according to RAPM.

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