Replace Lebron with Peak Kawhi on the 2009 & 2010 Cavs

[HBK_Kliq_33]

They would go to the finals both years and probably lose to Lakers. Those cavs teams are ranked 3rd and 6th in defense. Kawhi is a better scorer, defender, shooter than LeBron and can carry the offense by himself to the finals as long as he has a good enough defense supporting cast. The combination of mo williams and Jamison are better than any combined 2nd and 3rd offensive players that kawhi had with Spurs. Lamarcus is a bum in the playoffs and doesn't like being a 2nd option scorer. Yet kawhi had a 99% chance of being up 1-0 in the WCF vs Durant's warriors.

I don't see kawhi losing a series to Dwight or old KG. Dwight is overrated and had the worse finals performance for a superstar in finals history. KG was old and played pathetic in the finals. Cavs have a good enough defense and good enough role players to allow kawhi to be the man on the team. When kawhi is the clear cut man, his team hasn't lost a playoff series yet. Whether they beat lakers is the question. Kawhi already proved he can carry a teams offense by himself with raptors in the playoffs. Kawhi would do to Dwight's magic or KG's celtics what he did to Embiid's 76ers. Embiid 2019 is clearly better than 2010 KG and about equal to 2009 Dwight.

The entire post is null and void when you realize the 09 Cavs do not have Lowry, FVV, and Pascal to take the playmaking burden and Kawhi is terrible at it. THe 09 Cavs offense would be nowhere as good with Kawhi instead of LeBron.

Leonard was easily the 2nd best playmaker on the raptors in the playoffs. There was stretches in the 2nd round, 3rd round, finals when Leonard carried the team in playmaking.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

I'm sorry is this 2019 kawhi, we're talking about here?

Peak Kawhi, which ever version you prefer.

If you're going to peak defender Kawhi then you're not getting 17-19 Kawhi on offense. 09 LeBron was a two way beast and as a defender better than 19 Kawhi.

That's just a false narrative. Leonard coasted a little bit in the 2019 season because he missed the prior season. Playoffs 2019, reg season and playoffs 2017 he was still a great defender. 2017 spurs were ranked 1st in defense and 2019 raptors had an alltime great defensive playoff run, leonard was the catalyst for this. Leonard has a very intimidating presence on defense and scares people in going at him 1 on 1, he's kind of like a lockdown cornerback in NFL who nobody wants to pass the ball too.

76ers series he still locked down Butler in game 7, Bucks series he guarded Giannis games 3-6 and shut him out, 2019 finals he averaged over a block a game and was disrupting on help defense. He can more than hold his own as a defender still.

[liamliam1234]

Because 2019 Kawhi was not better than Lebron on defence, and there is no metric suggesting he is.

Lebron’s statistics pretty much maintained in the Magic series apart from his true shooting, and he arguably even elevated, so complaining about early routs hardly makes a significant difference.

Do you have his vs the magic stats vs his vs atlanta+detroit stats?

Combining Atlanta and Detroit is a nuisance, but I can give the basics as an indicator.

The Orlando series had a pace of 89.9. In 44.3 minutes per game (so 83 possessions), Lebron put up 38.5/8.3/8 on 59.1% true shooting (meaning his rTS was still near Kawhi’s). Adjusted, that is 46.4/10/9.6 per 100 possessions, so general point stands.

The Atlanta series had a pace of 80.9. Full disclosure, I did not expect it to be remotely this low, so the Atlanta series is a lot better than I gave it credit. In 38 minutes per game (64 possessions), Lebron averaged 33.8/8.3/6 on 66.7% true shooting.

Detroit was a slightly higher, but still slow, 82.8 pace. In 40.8 minutes per game (70-71 possessions), Lebron averaged 32/11.3/7.5 on 62.2% true shooting.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

They would go to the finals both years and probably lose to Lakers. Those cavs teams are ranked 3rd and 6th in defense. Kawhi is a better scorer, defender, shooter than LeBron and can carry the offense by himself to the finals as long as he has a good enough defense supporting cast. The combination of mo williams and Jamison are better than any combined 2nd and 3rd offensive players that kawhi had with Spurs. Lamarcus is a bum in the playoffs and doesn't like being a 2nd option scorer.

If LMA is a bum in the playoffs, then what the **** would you call Mo Williams? Holy ****

I don't see kawhi losing a series to Dwight or old KG. Dwight is overrated and had the worse finals performance for a superstar in finals history. KG was old and played pathetic in the finals. Cavs have a good enough defense and good enough role players to allow kawhi to be the man on the team. When kawhi is the clear cut man, his team hasn't lost a playoff series yet. Whether they beat lakers is the question. Kawhi already proved he can carry a teams offense by himself with raptors in the playoffs. Kawhi would do to Dwight's magic or KG's celtics what he did to Embiid's 76ers. Embiid 2019 is clearly better than 2010 KG and about equal to 2009 Dwight.

You seriously need to check a doctor for delusion. This is getting out of hand.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1_select=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1=aldrila01&idx=players&y1=2017&player_id2_hint=Mo+Williams&player_id2_select=Mo+Williams&player_id2=willima01&idx=players&y2=2010

Mo Williams was better than Lamarcus in the regular season and playoffs, look at their stats.

[An Unbiased Fan]

09 LeBron is arguably his best defensive season. For someone who loves to bring up Kobe’s 1st team All-D, why not bring up that Bron was the runner up for DPOY in 2009?

Peak Kawhi was actually DPOY though.......and the DPOY voting is a media thing.

So you’re saying 2016 is peak Kawhi? Because he didn’t win it after that.

You realize the All-Defensive teams are also media voting, right?

In no way is 09 or 10 Lebron a better defender than Heatles Lebron.

LeBron lost some motor and explosiveness in his Heat years, I could certainly see an argument for 09 and 10 as his best defensive efforts.

1) Coahces vote on All-Defensive teams. Look at TD who has tons of All-D teams, and no DPOYs.

2) Heatles Lebron was plenty explosive, and far more impactful on defense. Just look at him guarding Rose, which a far cry from letting Rodno eating up the Cavs in 2010.

Basically, Lebron pre-Miami was like a good defensive back who covers the opponent's 2nd or 3rd best receiver. Healtles Lebron was much more of a DB houdning the primary receiver. People are too caught up in explsoiveness or athelisicism. It's why guys like TD, Kobe, KG had such an impact on defense...they covered assignments that stifled the opponent. This is what Peak Kawhi does. or even peak Dwight.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Are you guys just making threads to bait / troll HBK? Lol

Exactly, telling me Lebron is better is trolling. Lebron can't guard Giannis, can't score points on the volume\efficiency that Kawhi does, can't shoot like Kawhi and you said yourself that Kawhi is the better rebounder. I don't see any path in the playoffs that Lebron won more difficult than Kawhi's 2019 playoff path. Lebron was able to coast in the eastern conference his entire career, the east was great by the time Kawhi came to the eastern conference. If Lebron's biggest argument was he lost in the 2nd round better than Kawhi did, than ok I guess. I know 2019 Kawhi playoffs holds up with every one of Lebron's ring years.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Oh, please, tell me more about how 2019 Kawhi, who was usually no better than the fourth-best defender on his team, would go ahead and guard Dwight Howard.

The 4th best defender guards Butler in game 7, Giannis in games 3-6, and leads starting lineup in blocks during finals? I don't think so. Kawhi was who coach nurse called on whenever he had a tough assignment. Gasol only played 30 minutes, Lowry got torched by Klay in the finals.

[liamliam1234]

You do not watch film, and you seem to extrapolate a few scattered possessions of good man-to-man coverage to the entire game, so why would anyone take your assessments seriously.

Why did superhuman defender Kawhi not take responsibility for Klay or Curry?

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Lebron 2009 playoffs per 100 possessions (41.4 minutes per game): 47.5/12.3/9.8/2.2/1.2 with 3.7 turnovers per game on 61.8% true shooting (+7.4 rTS).

Kawhi 2019 playoffs per 100 possessions (39.1 minutes per game): 39.0/11.6/5.0/2.1/0.9 with 3.9 turnovers per game on 61.9% true shooting (+5.9 rTS).

Literally worse across the board except for a .01 advantage in true shooting... which vanishes as soon as we adjust for era efficiency improvements.

Just stop.

14 game sample size vs 22 game sample size, you just stop.

Also Kawhi had to face Giannis and Embiid, not washed up Pistons or the terrible Hawks. 2009 Pistons and Hawks were no better than the 2019 Magic. Leonard averaged 28 PPG on 68% TS vs Magic.

Lebron's stats vs the 59 win magic led by dwight howard and two strong defensive bigs were better than kawhi's across the entire playoff even including series vs the 11th ranked post season defense of the dubs

Kawhi averaged 35 points on 63% TS and 10 rebounds vs 76ers and the 76ers were better than Magic. 76ers had Embiid who is superior over Dwight, Butler who is better than Rashard Lewis, Simmons/Harris combo is better than Turk/Nelson. Kawhi is facing the much better team.

[liamliam1234]

The 2009 Magic had a 101.9 regular season defensive rating. You seriously need to cut the bull.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

You do not watch film, and you seem to extrapolate a few scattered possessions of good man-to-man coverage to the entire game, so why would anyone take your assessments seriously.

Why did superhuman defender Kawhi not take responsibility for Klay or Curry?

They needed Kawhi's scoring too much to be chasing around Curry\Klay all series. If it went to game 7, he would shut them down. Kawhi's job defensively was to guard Draymond Green and roam around on the help and be disruptive. He did that perfectly!

His job vs bucks was to guard Giannis games 3-6 and he did that perfectly!

Guard Giannis games 3-6 and he did that.

Every defensive assignment he was asked for by coach, he conquered. The raptors have a title because of it.

[Franco]

They would go to the finals both years and probably lose to Lakers. Those cavs teams are ranked 3rd and 6th in defense. Kawhi is a better scorer, defender, shooter than LeBron and can carry the offense by himself to the finals as long as he has a good enough defense supporting cast. The combination of mo williams and Jamison are better than any combined 2nd and 3rd offensive players that kawhi had with Spurs. Lamarcus is a bum in the playoffs and doesn't like being a 2nd option scorer.

If LMA is a bum in the playoffs, then what the **** would you call Mo Williams? Holy ****

I don't see kawhi losing a series to Dwight or old KG. Dwight is overrated and had the worse finals performance for a superstar in finals history. KG was old and played pathetic in the finals. Cavs have a good enough defense and good enough role players to allow kawhi to be the man on the team. When kawhi is the clear cut man, his team hasn't lost a playoff series yet. Whether they beat lakers is the question. Kawhi already proved he can carry a teams offense by himself with raptors in the playoffs. Kawhi would do to Dwight's magic or KG's celtics what he did to Embiid's 76ers. Embiid 2019 is clearly better than 2010 KG and about equal to 2009 Dwight.

You seriously need to check a doctor for delusion. This is getting out of hand.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1_select=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1=aldrila01&idx=players&y1=2017&player_id2_hint=Mo+Williams&player_id2_select=Mo+Williams&player_id2=willima01&idx=players&y2=2010

Mo Williams was better than Lamarcus in the regular season and playoffs, look at their stats.

First of all, you need to decide what’s Kawhi’s peak. Because in 2017 he was certainly closer to LeBron as a scorer, but he wasn’t anywhere near the same defensive player.

Second, when you adjust for pace it looks like this:

LMA (per 100) - 27.1 pts, 11.4 rbs, 3.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.9blk, 2.1TOV, 53TS%

Mo - 24.3pts, 4.5 rbs, 8.2 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.9TOV, 58TS%

LMA has higher volume, Mo was much more efficient scoring, but LMA was a much better defender.

Playoffs:

LMA - 25.3pts, 11.4rbs, 2.3ast, 1.0stl, 1.5blk, 2.6TOV, 50TS%

Mo - 19.9pts, 4.3rbs, 7.4ast, 0.8stl, 0.3blk, 2.9TOV, 53TS%

LMA’s advantage here skyrockets. And this is probably his worst year Vs Mo’s best.

In 2008-09 Mo was flat-out atrocious in the playoffs compared to LMA:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1_select=LaMarcus+Aldridge&y1=2016&player_id1=aldrila01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Mo+Williams&player_id2_select=Mo+Williams&y2=2009&player_id2=willima01&idx=players

[liamliam1234]

They needed scoring so much it was his worst scoring series?

[First Take]

2009 Orlando Magic was a great team. You had prime Dwight Howard with snipers all around him. All that spacing for Dwight to thrive, abuse and dominate the interior. If he got doubled team, he'd kick it out to the open man and they'd make it rain from three. The only reason why Dwight and the Magic lost in the finals is because Kobe had 2 legit bigs, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Not to mention Kobe and that deep squad. If it was Kobe and just Pau, i'm calling Orlando in 6.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

If LMA is a bum in the playoffs, then what the **** would you call Mo Williams? Holy ****



You seriously need to check a doctor for delusion. This is getting out of hand.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1_select=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1=aldrila01&idx=players&y1=2017&player_id2_hint=Mo+Williams&player_id2_select=Mo+Williams&player_id2=willima01&idx=players&y2=2010

Mo Williams was better than Lamarcus in the regular season and playoffs, look at their stats.

First of all, you need to decide what’s Kawhi’s peak. Because in 2017 he was certainly closer to LeBron as a scorer, but he wasn’t anywhere near the same defensive player.

Second, when you adjust for pace it looks like this:

LMA (per 100) - 27.1 pts, 11.4 rbs, 3.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.9blk, 2.1TOV, 53TS%

Mo - 24.3pts, 4.5 rbs, 8.2 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.9TOV, 58TS%

LMA has higher volume, Mo was much more efficient scoring, but LMA was a much better defender.

Playoffs:

LMA - 25.3pts, 11.4rbs, 2.3ast, 1.0stl, 1.5blk, 2.6TOV, 50TS%

Mo - 19.9pts, 4.3rbs, 7.4ast, 0.8stl, 0.3blk, 2.9TOV, 53TS%

LMA’s advantage here skyrockets. And this is probably his worst year Vs Mo’s best.

In 2008-09 Mo was flat-out atrocious in the playoffs compared to LMA:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=LaMarcus+Aldridge&player_id1_select=LaMarcus+Aldridge&y1=2016&player_id1=aldrila01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Mo+Williams&player_id2_select=Mo+Williams&y2=2009&player_id2=willima01&idx=players

I said offense! Mo Williams and Jamison were better on offense than Lamarcus and Tony Parker. Mo Williams is more efficient in a slightly less efficient era? Looks like another loss for Lamarcus Bumridge. So Kawhi actually had less help offensively 2017 than lebron in 2010.

[Bidofo]

I don't see any path in the playoffs that Lebron won more difficult than Kawhi's 2019 playoff path. Lebron was able to coast in the eastern conference his entire career, the east was great by the time Kawhi came to the eastern conference.

Weighted average DRTG (RS) Kawhi faced in 2019 = (108.1*5+110*7+105.2*6+109.5*6)/24 = 108.3
Weighted average DRTG (RS) LeBron faced in 2012 = (101*5+103.1*6+98.2*7+103.2*5)/23 = 101.1

Obviously the right thing to do would be to compare those ratings to the league average...but you never account for that because it doesn't really fit your agenda, so I won't either (LeBron faced tougher defenses still, though). The defenses LeBron faced were indeed 7 whole points tougher.

[DatAsh]

I don't see this going well at all.

Looking at defense:
09 Lebron is a much, much better defender than Kawhi. This is arguably Lebron's defensive peak. I see a +3 or more advantage for Lebron on defense.

Looking at offense:
Not only is Lebron also much, much better (equal or better scorer, 3x the playmaker, equal rebounder) on offense, but the Cavs offense is tailor made for Lebron, and basically exactly the opposite of what Kawhi needs. Lebron is at his best surrounded by shooters who need help having shots created for them. Kawhi is best with good playmakers who can get him good looks and allow him to iso to mix things up.

I'd say 45-50 wins and probably lose in the first round.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

They needed scoring so much it was his worst scoring series?

Warriors came out with all eyes on kawhi and Siakam had a good game early. Once they adjusted to Siakam, kawhi had to carry the scoring load four straight games. It was always like that with Siakam, he sneaks up on you early but than gets shut down once acknowledged by coaches. Lowry is a spot up shooter with the occasional drive. Kawhi had a monster scoring load in the playoffs! Go ahead make the playoffs again raptors 2020 and you will see them without Kawhi.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

I don't see any path in the playoffs that Lebron won more difficult than Kawhi's 2019 playoff path. Lebron was able to coast in the eastern conference his entire career, the east was great by the time Kawhi came to the eastern conference.

Weighted average DRTG (RS) Kawhi faced in 2019 = (108.1*5+110*7+105.2*6+109.5*6)/24 = 108.3
Weighted average DRTG (RS) LeBron faced in 2012 = (101*5+103.1*6+98.2*7+103.2*5)/23 = 101.1

Obviously the right thing to do would be to compare those ratings to the league average...but you never account for that because it doesn't really fit your agenda, so I won't either (LeBron faced tougher defenses still, though). The defenses LeBron faced were indeed 7 whole points tougher.

76ers best 2 defenders embiid and butler only played like 15 games together! You can't hold their defensive rating against them. Embiid was league leader in BPM heading into the east finals.

Bucks were #1 ranked defense and people were saying they were an alltime great team before Kawhi embarrassed them. Bucks are better overall than magic and 76ers are a younger better Celtics. Don't forget Kawhi also matched Lebrons biggest accomplishment ever (beating warriors) all in the same year as well.

[eminence]

Well, peak Kawhi is either '16 or '17 to date, I'll go '16 to avoid injury discussion. Defense doesn't fall off too much, though LeBron was a better fit on that end with his insane motor, offensively they go from borderline elite to just above average. In '09 I'd guess they fall to the 3 seed, lose to Orlando. In '10 I could see them anywhere from the 2 to 4 seed, lose to either Orlando or Boston.