RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #15 (Dirk Nowitzki)

[Joao Saraiva]

Votes
1. Karl Malone
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Dr. J

The arguments for Malone

Longevity
Malone is clearly the superstar left with the most longevity. Dude was among the best players of the league from 88 to 00. That is a long, long run. Only KAJ, LeBron and Duncan are comparable in that regard.
He has 14 seasons of high caliber. For example, Dirk has 11. 3 seasons doesn't seem a very big gap, but Malone was also much better than Dirk at the begining of their careers and at the end.

Never missed the playoffs and his prime is really good
In a freaking long career, Malone always made the playoffs. He was the driving force of the Jazz for a big portion of that. Taking only RS into account I have no doubt Malone would have a great case for a top 10 player of all time.
His prime was fantastic, and I'd say between him and Dirk, Malone has 6 out of the top 8 seasons. That is enough to upset the advantage of Dirk peak wise for me.

Was not freaking consistent in the playoffs, but he had a bunch of great runs
91, 92, 94, 96, 97, 98 and 00 were very good playoff runs. So while he was inconsistent, he stil has 7 great runs. That is still very impressive on it's own. His inconsistency in the playoffs is the reason why I don't rank Malone higher, but I can only "punish" him so much.

His peak is better than given credit for
I believe Karl Malone was fantastic in 98. His RS was really solid, and while not being his best, he was already a very polished post player, with a fantastic mid range shot, strong as a bull, great rebounder, good passer for a big man and a very good defender. Defense is one aspect that is undervalued on Malone's game, but I'll talk a bit about that too later.
I think Dirk has a case in peak vs Malone, but was 06 Dirk or 11 Dirk that much better?
Malone played very well in the 98 finals. Games 5 and 6 are games for the ages. While Dirk was fantastic in the 11 campaign, he didn't play better in the finals than Malone in 98 I'd say. So the gap isn't that big between them.
He was not the fast break machine he once was, but he still was very good in that regard.

Defense is undervalued
Malone had really great hands. He'd disrupt shots when player were on their way up, and while not being as flashy as blocks from Hakeem for example, he still disrupted a lot of plays near the rim. He was also a very solid man to man defender and a good help defender.

Accodales wise he is probably the best player left
Ok, 0 FMVPs. But he is a two time MVP, he has 11 all-NBA 1st teams, 14 all-star games, 5 top 3 finishes in MVP awards, and 9 finishes in the top 5. That is as great as it gets. I take finishing among the most voted players (top 10) into high consideration, cause that talks strenght on a players' greatness in his own era.

[homecourtloss]

15) Moses Malone
16) Julius Erving
17) Elgin Baylor

Moses meanwhile, matched up very well vs Kareem (the no. 3 GOAT according to this board), beating him in the playoffs in both 81 and 83, leading his team to the finals in 81 and sweeping the defending champs Lakers in 83.

Moses and Kareem played games of one-on-one in these years?

[eminence]

15) Moses Malone
16) Julius Erving
17) Elgin Baylor

Moses meanwhile, matched up very well vs Kareem (the no. 3 GOAT according to this board), beating him in the playoffs in both 81 and 83, leading his team to the finals in 81 and sweeping the defending champs Lakers in 83.

Moses and Kareem played games of one-on-one in these years?

Ahh, I hadn't yet considered how to value DrJ getting cooked by KAJ in Clash of the Legends, maybe I should.

[wojoaderge]

I will say I'm on the side of the '83 Rockets intentionally tanking it. They were not talented, that's true, but they weren't *that* bad either, more of a classic 25-30 win squad obviously going nowhere that decided to mail it in.

No, they were really that bad. When Allen Leavell is your top scorer, you're bad. That the FO made no moves to improve the roster is another story

[Gibson22]

what's the counting rn?

[Joao Saraiva]

Voting for the #15 spot:


1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. David Robinson
3. Kevin Durant


It must be noted that Dirk does have his playoff blunder as a favorite (a 1 seed versus an 8 seed loss) but most all all-time greats will have at least one series where they lose as a favorite. What Dirk does have in his resume is everything an all-time great needs to be considered all-time great. He has longevity, he has an MVP, he has a ring, he has a Finals MVP, he also is a great +/- playoff performer among the cream of the crop. Additionally, 30,000 points and 10,000 rebounds with a championship over Wade, Lebron, and Bosh is hard to argue against. Most of the guys someone would argue over Dirk do not have all the accolades that Dirk has: Karl Malone (no ring), George Mikan (no longevity), David Robinson (no Finals MVP), but again, I can admit I could be swayed but I find it hard not to include Dirk in this spot.

I have a hard time ranking Karl Malone high when he had a full career with HOF legend John Stockton and never won a single ring. If you break it down he only ever even made the Finals 2 years in his entire time playing with Stockton (I'm not counting the Lakers blunder as a "Finals appearance"). Maybe I could be swayed, but I have to go with David Robinson here because of his elite ability to play both sides of the ball and him winning 2 rings (one of them as a main piece). The only thing hurting him that Malone definitely has over D-Rob is longevity and longevity is important but D-Rob still played 14 years. David Robinson's skill set is so rare, he has to be one of the very few to win a blocking title and scoring title in a career. Pair that with his DPOY award, an MVP and 2 chips and I think D-Rob wins this spot.

I hate Kevin Durant's move in 2017 but his overall resume is hard to ignore. 4x Scoring Champion, MVP, 3 Finals, 2 Finals MVPs, 11-straight seasons of 25 ppg or more, 10x All Star (Approaching Oscar who had 12), ROY. KD has average 25 ppg or higher every single playoff run and has one of the top 5 all time Finals by GameScore. 14th all time in MVP win shares, 10th all time in playoff points. Again, I hate his move in 2017 but the rest is hard to ignore. I think if he creates a couple of memorable seasons in Brooklyn he will definitely be top 15 material.

Malone has no ring... just imagine his cast stepped up like the Mavs cast did against the Heat big 3 and that MJ had a bad series like LBJ did in 11.

I believe the 11 ring is overrating Dirk.

He didn't even perform better in the 11 finals than Malone did in 98:

Dirk 26 PPG 9.7 RPG 2 APG 0.7 SPG 0.7 BPG 53.7ts% 16.6 GmSC

Malone 25 PPG 10.5 RPG 3.8 APG 1 SPG 1.2 BPG 55.3 ts% 18.5 GmSC

Malone has more playoff great runs than Dirk, and when comparing their seasons I would say it's legit to say Dirk has the top 2 (I don't agree but see the argument) but then Maloen has several seasons better than Dirk's 3rd best.

[Joao Saraiva]

Perhaps I've got to rethink my thoughts on KD vs Dr. J. I'm changing him to my 3rd vote.

[sansterre]

Here are their playoff chances (based on my regular season Win Shares -> Playoff Odds formula):

Karl Malone: 17.23
Dirk Nowitzki: 16.27
Moses Malone: 15.46
Julius Erving: 14.04
David Robinson: 12.25
Kevin Durant: 9.53
George Mikan: 8.45

These are the players in the order of how good they are in terms of chances of winning a championship in one given year based on postseason averages of their long peaks:

Mikan: A player who dominated his era, on the level of Michael Jordan or better. Except he played in what was unquestionably the least talented era of basketball we’ve seen. But this guy, from what we can tell, is the complete package. He led the league in points per game three straight years while shooting +7% or better, so echoes of Kareem here. What data we do have suggests that he was one of the best rebounders in the league, a capable passer (Assist% north of 10% for his last four years) and game film analysis suggests that he was a dominant defender (maybe in the mould of Wilt). So basically . . . The attacks on this guy are really on taking someone from his era. Per year, he was a monster.

Durant: Really high usage (30%) combined with excellent efficiency (+8%) makes him the best scorer of the group (player B possibly excepted). His assists are solid and turnovers low. This is elite-level offensive stuff; almost no players combine all of this; the only regular season comp I found was peak Kawhi Leonard, but performances like this were *average* for Player G in the postseason. His rebounding was like a good rebounding wing, or moderate rebounding big (comps were common, but Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki and Andre Iguodala show up a lot). This player’s defensive value is above average with strong length and athleticism countering inattention and positional weaknesses. This player’s offense can be heavily off-ball, which makes him super-additive. So all-world offense, with everything else being solid.

Robinson: High usage (27%) but low scoring (about +2%) is a little underwhelming; this was combined with decent enough passing and average turnovers (13.1 and 12.0% respectively). Do you know which regular season player matched this profile best? Tim Duncan on slightly down years (Duncan was a better passer though, at least by assist%). This player was an outstanding rebounder; Duncan again is probably the best comp. He was an elite-level defending big, but not one of the very best. Basically, this guy looks like regular season Tim Duncan. Much to my surprise. But there is one important distinction; despite overall scoring similarities, Duncan is a better iso-scorer, and this player is more dependent on getting shots in the flow of the offense.

Erving: High usage (26.4%) and strong efficiency (+6% shooting) makes him numerically like a slightly worse version of player D. His assists and turnovers were both higher. You know which regular season player fits this pattern best? Young Paul Pierce, a strong do-everything scorer. Now, at his peak Player E was considerably better than this, but his scoring was quite dependent on his athleticism which started to wane hard once he hit his early 30s. His rebounding is consistent with a strong athletic wing: Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, Dominique Wilkins, that sort of thing. His defensive ability is a bit weird. On one hand, he was long and athletic, and capable of steals and blocks at extremely respectable rates. On the other hand, he lacked lateral quickness in defense and often abandoned position to leak out for fast breaks. Still, overall, an above average defender. Some of this player’s early years came in a slightly watered down league, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

Dirk: Very strong scoring (27% usage, +7% efficiency) combined with sufficient (and no more) passing and low turnovers. This profile matches with strong scorers who can pass enough to not compromise their value: Klay Thompson, Shaq, Chris Bosh (Toronto) and Kiki Vandeweghe are the comps here. The weird bit is that this player is a big, making him unusually valuable on offense. This player was a floor spacer, generating very few offensive boards for a big but doing a great job with defensive boards. He was at best an average defender for his position. His major selling point is that he has incredibly inelastic scoring; throughout the playoffs you could count on him for high usage high efficiency without issue; building strong offenses around him was easy; it just took unusual lineup constructions to get the most out of him.

Moses: Moderate usage (24.6%) with decent efficiency (+4.3% or so). But the assist rate is microscopic. When I feed those four stats into stathead, I get a horde of unskilled big men: Marvin Bagely, first two-years Anthony Davis, Hassan Whiteside, Ryan Anderson, that sort of thing. Some combination of pure finishers and guys too unpolished to operate smoothly within the offense. In other words, this combination of skills (the shooting/usage/passing/turnovers) has definite value, but it’s nothing to brag about. However, this player was perhaps the best offensive rebounder ever, which meant that he generated insane amounts of off-ball offense (and a ton of his own shots, given that he scored a lot on putbacks). So despite the unpolished offensive game, the rebounding is so stratospheric that he was both a valuable offensive player *and* one who didn’t need the ball to generate that offense, which makes him extra sexy. It’s just that his usage/scoring didn’t set up teammates at all. He was a solid defender, probably a bit above average. Super-weird skillset.

Karl: Solid passing with low turnovers. Bulk shooting (31.4% usage) but at only +1% efficiency or so. As far as shooting/passing/turnovers go, this player’s postseason footprint looks the most like regular season Carmelo Anthony. But add in that this player was an excellent rebounder (Pau Gasol/Patrick Ewing-level) and an above average defender from the four. Carmelo Anthony with Pau Gasol rebounding plus above average defense is a valuable package, but I don’t know how good it is compared to everyone else.

Of course, predictably, they’re almost in inverse order. There is one player who shows up really well on opportunities, but is also pretty good on the one-season quality-o-meter. That’s Dirk. Do I think that Mikan has twice the quality / playoff odds swing that Dirk does? Not really. So I’m giving my #1 to Dirk Nowitzki.

I know I’m going to be damned, but I really think Robinson's profile is pretty appealing. Regular season Tim Duncan is really, really good. I think he’s more than 20% better than Erving (who’s being penalized a bit for the ABA) but I don’t think Durant’s more than 25% better than Duncan. So, perversely, I’m going David Robinson for my #2. I think people unfairly judge Robinson for his postseason drop-off. When you’re dropping *to* regular season Duncan, you’re still really good. That he never had particularly strong teams around him isn’t really his fault. I think he’s good enough to counter his short number of seasons.

And I’ll buy Erving for #3, who’s somewhere in between everything else. Durant and Mikan have so few reps (and I’m not entirely comfortable with Mikan anyway) that I’m uncomfortable putting them above somebody with both decent reps and decent quality. So for #3 I’ll take Julius Erving.

#1. Dirk Nowitzki
#2. David Robinson
#3. Julius Erving

Beyond this it’s really a choice. If you want longevity you can go either of the two Malones (Karl is worth more playoff shots, Moses is probably individually better). And if you want individual brilliance, you can go between Durant and Mikan.

[70sFan]

Perhaps I've got to rethink my thoughts on KD vs Dr. J. I'm changing him to my 3rd vote.

What made you change your voting for KD?

[Joao Saraiva]

Perhaps I've got to rethink my thoughts on KD vs Dr. J. I'm changing him to my 3rd vote.

What made you change your voting for KD?

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

[Cavsfansince84]

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

imo Dr. J definitely took a step back in scoring due to going to a team with other scorers and wanting to try and fit his game into a team that already had a lot of scoring talent on it. Which didn't change as they added guys like Cheeks, Toney and Moses later on. So I think him shooting less than he did in the aba was good for the team and it obviously led to quite a bit of success. Also worth noting that despite the lower scoring he was still getting voted top 5 in mvp voting most every year including winning it in 81 as well as being named all nba 1st team. So the level of respect he had as a player is quite evident. KD otoh never finished higher than 8th in mvp voting while with the Warriors. Which isn't to say I am low on KD either because I will probably be voting for him in the 18-20 range.

[Joao Saraiva]

Flipping again to Dr. J then. Hope to have them right next to each other followed by Moses, Curry and Robinson... so I hope it's not me who decides their position on the list.

[penbeast0]

Yeah, it gets harder and harder the deeper you go into the rabbit hole until by the 60-100 range, it's really about how each player fits your perception of the game to a large degree. Sort of like drafting late first and second round draft choices; the deeper you go into the draft the more you look at how well that player fits your system rather than just BPA.

[70sFan]

Perhaps I've got to rethink my thoughts on KD vs Dr. J. I'm changing him to my 3rd vote.

What made you change your voting for KD?

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

I don't think Durant has been more conistent playoffs performer at all to be honest. Julius peaked higher in playoffs and he rarely had bad runs at all. I mean, KD never reached the greatness of 1974 or 1976 Julius in playoffs. Even if you don't count ABA years (which you should in this project), I don't see any KD run over 1977 and 1980 Julius (1982 has a case as well, but it's more arguable with 2012).

Watch on YouTube

He lowered his production in NBA because he went to completely different team that was full of isolation scorers - McGinnis, Free, Collins and even Dawkins/Mix were mostly scorers so Julius was asked to reduce his role. Once the Sixers started to collapse against Blazers Julius took over 30 ppg on elite efficiency (including 37 and 40 point games in two deciding games that were lost by single digits). I've never seen anything like that from Durant.

Sixers never built an offense around Julius in a way Nets did. Even in the early 1980s, Erving played without many shooters in the lineup and was used more as a post up player than he was in the ABA. We've seen that Julius was LeBron-esque when he played with more space and it's not like the competition in ABA was weak - by 1976, Julius faced one of the best teams in the world (Nuggets) with one of the best defenders ever trying to guard him:

Watch on YouTube

Then there is longevity advantage which is large - Julius was superstar from his first season to 1983. That's over decade of being top 5 player in the world. Durant reached that level in 2010 and he missed whole 2020 along with almost full 2015. Basically Durant has 2012-19 as a top 5 player (7 seasons without 2015) and 2 legit star seasons in 2010-11. That's 7 seasons and... that's all. 2008 and 2009 don't give him any value among top 20 players ever. In comparison, Julius played almost 300 more RS games in 1972-83 period and he adds positive value with his 1984-87 seasons when he wasn't superstar anymore, but was still a very good player with argument for an all-star level.

Not to mention that I simply like Julius game more - he wasn't better scorer than KD but with right offensive system I'd take him to run my offense over Durant without thinking twice. He was clearly better defender, more dynamic playmaker and I like his intangibles a lot more (if anyone cares).

I'm not saying that you can't make any case for Durant over Julius - as I said, he was better scorer and if you value his GSW career highly then MAYBE that could overcome massive longevity disadvantage. I don't value his GSW career highly at all and by my criteria (high praise for defense and longevity) I don't see KD being ahead of Julius. Not yet and to be honest, I don't expect him to be there in future.

[freethedevil]

You really believe that Moncrief was better than Moses in 1982 RS? I love Squid, but he arguably wasn't Bucks best player in 1982. Milwaukee had very strong and deep team in 1982, it's silly to compare that to Rockets.

I would rather it go to the defensive anchor of a 5 SRS, -4.6 rDRTG team rather than to the offensive anchor of a negative SRS team, yeah. MVP is famously rarely about who is “better”, but if it is about the best regular season player then Moses still does not win that award.

Yeah, they also lost Robert Reid - decent starter whose absence made Rockets becoming WOAT team.

Yeah when you have a bad team and remove two of the three players capable of playing real minutes, and then that third player falls off a cliff, and then your entire team stops trying, the results tend to be awful. Shocker.

Jones was very good defender, so technically he should have been an upgrade on defense over overrated Moses right?

Who says 1982/83 Caldwell was any sort of ace defender? He was startable. On a team with Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, he was there to not be a liability.

By the way, Jones played 29.8 mpg - you act like he played 20 mpg...

Yes, when I say not playing 30 minutes, that means 20 minutes. Another good one.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Well they blatantly did the same thing the next year and save for Hinkie few front offices have ever come outright and said, “WE ARE TRYING TO LOSE,” but I am sure it is more convenient to pretend they were willfully ignorant about what the best course for their team was.

Thanks, I didn't know that...

So why mention him having a top twenty-five peak.

Caldwell Jones:
1. Twice led the ABA in blocks
2. Was 1st team all-defense twice in the 80s
3. Was starting for one of the top 3 teams in the league for years while scoring 7 ppg
4. Had a very good reputation as a good defensive player

If you are questioning his defense then you shouldn't be voting in this.

-> Cites media accolades
-> Strawmans("not an ace defender"=/not good)
-> says other people shouldn't vote

Hmm

[freethedevil]

Perhaps I've got to rethink my thoughts on KD vs Dr. J. I'm changing him to my 3rd vote.

What made you change your voting for KD?

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

This is what happens when you measure creation with apg and you dont bother to look at what defenses players are playing against.

Durant isn't even top top 5 in scoring consistency against good defenses this era

[Joao Saraiva]

What made you change your voting for KD?

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

This is what happens when you measure creation with apg and you dont bother to look at what defenses players are playing against.

Durant isn't even top top 5 in scoring consistency against good defenses this era

Because I mentioned apg.... where?

[trex_8063]

Thru post #54:

Dirk Nowitzki - 4 (Cavsfansince84, mailmp, sansterre, Whopper_Sr)
Karl Malone - 2 (Joao Saraiva, trex_8063)
Moses Malone - 2 (Hal14, Odinn21)
George Mikan - 2* (lebron4-13-4*, penbeast0)
Kevin Durant - 1 (Dutchball97)


About 21 hours more for this thread. If you don’t see your handle above, YOU HAVEN’T VOTED IN THIS THREAD.

*lebron3-14-3, you've not provided any arguments; without reasoning, your vote will not be counted at the final tally.

Cavsfansince84, as a reg you’re welcome to join immediately if you like (tentatively counting your vote, though arguably skirting the line of acceptable argumentation, fwiw). Please read OP of this thread, if you intend to continue.

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[freethedevil]

I am realizing his consistency and longevity took a step up from the last time I looked at him and his ranking. Still wondering about it tough.

I think KD is more consistent than Doctor J in the playoffs and it's hard for me to take for granted those first years of his career in the ABA when he really had lower production in the NBA. Am I wrong to think about that? You might be the right guy to ask that.

Or am I giving too much praise for KD with the Warriors? Because he has an "easy" situation, but it's not like Doctor J didn't have great situations arround him also.

And KD is the guy on the Warriors I felt was more consistent trough those playoff runs, more than Steph and Klay.

This is what happens when you measure creation with apg and you dont bother to look at what defenses players are playing against.

Durant isn't even top top 5 in scoring consistency against good defenses this era

Because I mentioned apg.... where?

Because there's zero argument for durant as being more consistent when you consider curry is consistently creatiing 10 chances a game while KD's scoring plummets against good playoff defenses.

[Joao Saraiva]

This is what happens when you measure creation with apg and you dont bother to look at what defenses players are playing against.

Durant isn't even top top 5 in scoring consistency against good defenses this era

Because I mentioned apg.... where?

Because there's zero argument for durant as being more consistent when you consider curry is consistently creatiing 10 chances a game while KD's scoring plummets against good playoff defenses.

Well... I can give you some examples of that not being true. Specially in GSW.