RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 (Billy Cunningham)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#41 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:40 pm

falcolombardi wrote:also just because a player is a flawed first option star doesnt mean he is a bad second option or second best offensive player

i think we are starting to punish second rate first options too much compared to first rate second options

is somethingh i thought about in the time of the stockton pick over players like patrick ewing, who is to say patrick ewing couldnt have been a "perfect second star" like stockton was if he got the luxury of playing with a player better than him?

in that regard i think a lot of guys who were "THE GUY" like iverson, carmelo or such could have thrived as second options even if their styles scream "first option with low portability". think of how kirye worked well enough with lebron despite not being a picture perfect second guy (neutral ish defensive side impact, needs the ball in his hands and played with a first stae who also needs the ball). and it worked pretty damn well


RE: Who is to say? People who analyzing what a player's actual attributes are and considering how they'd fit in different roles. Period. That's the deal. Yes, we can be wrong about things we've never seen, but if you're judging Ewing by saying "Maybe he could have played like Stockton, who can say?", you're quite frankly not drilling deep enough.

You mention Kyrie. How did that work? It worked specifically when Kyrie had the ball and the defense was still more afraid of LeBron, so Kyrie had a lot of room to work with. It worked with Kyrie getting to play alpha against softer defensive pressure than the vast majority of players get to work with.

Now, if you want to say that guys like Iverson or Melo might be able to play a Kyrie-like role, this makes some sense despite the fact I've been so vehement in my criticisms toward Melo.

But it makes no sense at all to say "Well y'never know, maybe Melo will turn out to be a Stockton-level passer if we tell him to do that instead of scoring." Nope. The only thing Melo ever really developed was his ability to score. That's what made him special, and putting him in any role where he was expected to focus energy on anything else is just insisting that he does what he's bad at rather than what he's good at.

And what I'm saying in general about Melo is that he's just plain not good enough at scoring to expect to lead an elite offense, he's a weakness in most everything else in his game, and if you're playing Melo next to a better scorer, that better scorer would be better suited to play with a different player type.

For example, we can say nice things about how Kyrie looked with LeBron, but what we saw from AD last year was vastly more valuable to LeBron because he brought stuff to the table LeBron could not rather than just being "a second scorer".

Last thing I'm going to say is this - and I want to apologize up front for being on a mean streak right now:

The general rule is that what top tier talents want around them are smart team players. Guys who are good at making decisions. Guys who are good at understanding what their teammates need. Guys who work together as if they are part of a hive mind.

And this more than anything else is the issue with the Melo's of the world. Melo always played dumb. Even when he had the ball in his hands looking to score, he wasn't good at figuring out how to get the super-efficient shot, and that was literally the smartest part of his game.

So when I see something along the lines of "Who can say? Maybe this individualist whose always seemed clueless to the needs of his teammates will turn into John Stockton if he just played with a better scorer.", to me that's just a non-starter.

Okay, I think I should stop. My apologies for my rudeness.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#42 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:53 pm

Owly wrote:Regarding the bracketed ... this kind of plays into something touched on in the longevity vs peak Walton availability debate ... how you account for money. Because in all eras (being a big minute, high scorer, college star, high pick),but perhaps especially in the individual player max era he (reasonably enough) chooses to earn money at a LeBron level in a way that - at literal level does harm championship probability in an indirect way (if one actual is thinking from a modern GMs perspective as some apparently do).

I still see people on the board ahead of him either way (Brand, otoh, for one - though I guess he had some injury related contract-underperformance) but this could make quite a difference in his ranking whether this is a considered factor or not. It would be difficult to apply consistently across all eras but I guess if one was doing that sort of thing or at least thinking along those lines Carmelo is a guy who fits the bill of wanting to be paid like the best player, but hard to win titles as the best player.


I think this is a good point.

In practice for a franchise, bang-for-buck is a real thing for understanding value. If you can replace a guy with a guy who makes have the salary, that's valuable.

The guy I think of most about this is Joe Johnson, who was quite clearly at his most valuable in a Phoenix-like role, but only got the ridiculous contracts he got because Atlanta foolishly saw him as an alpha. The result is that his actual career impact is a tiny fraction of what it probably should have been, but he made way more all-star and earned way more money than he would have had he actually played the right way.

Back to Melo:

I am factoring in the opportunity cost that he represented. For me, signing Melo to be your alpha and giving him that max contract is kinda saying "Here, take all this money to keep us from competing for titles", and in that sense, it hurts his holistic impact.

But to me this is a bigger deal because of how Melo treated the Nuggets. Because if he had stayed contented on the Nuggets, you could at least say "Well were not going to win titles, but we can have a nice long wrong as a winning team with a star our fans recognize." And to me this was basically both the best case scenario - and the easiest scenario - for Melo's career.

But he wasn't satisfied with that. What Melo showed is that if you actually built something reasonable around him, he'd turn his nose up at it, and then go somewhere else with better talent where he'd largely do worse because he had no understanding of basketball fit and so chose his next destination foolishly.

I tend to hold a grudge against players like this. If you turn your nose up at the thing that was the very best thing for you, to me you're essentially saying you were destined to end up disappointing regardless of your theoretical ceiling.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#43 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:04 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Back to Melo:

I am factoring in the opportunity cost that he represented. For me, signing Melo to be your alpha and giving him that max contract is kinda saying "Here, take all this money to keep us from competing for titles", and in that sense, it hurts his holistic impact.

But to me this is a bigger deal because of how Melo treated the Nuggets. Because if he had stayed contented on the Nuggets, you could at least say "Well were not going to win titles, but we can have a nice long wrong as a winning team with a star our fans recognize." And to me this was basically both the best case scenario - and the easiest scenario - for Melo's career.

But he wasn't satisfied with that. What Melo showed is that if you actually built something reasonable around him, he'd turn his nose up at it, and then go somewhere else with better talent where he'd largely do worse because he had no understanding of basketball fit and so chose his next destination foolishly.

I tend to hold a grudge against players like this. If you turn your nose up at the thing that was the very best thing for you, to me you're essentially saying you were destined to end up disappointing regardless of your theoretical ceiling.


That's the main issue with Melo is you know he wants #1 money, his bbiq/shot selection/energy level is highly suspect as is his leadership. So the only real chance I see of building around is getting a guy like cp3 to run the offense and keep Melo on a leash while making sure you have a very good defensive center to anchor that side and build like that which is sort of what he had around him in 09 when the Nuggets made the wcf but the thing is that Melo may not have even been the 3rd best player on that team that year and he wasn't yet on his max contract. I actually think there's a lot of similarities between him and Nique but Nique's teams just won a decent amount more and Nique routinely placed much higher in mvp voting. So on one hand there's a basis for voting in Melo now but on the other there's just something about Melo which I think makes people question his ability to lead or his effect on team chemistry.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#44 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:47 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Owly wrote:Regarding the bracketed ... this kind of plays into something touched on in the longevity vs peak Walton availability debate ... how you account for money. Because in all eras (being a big minute, high scorer, college star, high pick),but perhaps especially in the individual player max era he (reasonably enough) chooses to earn money at a LeBron level in a way that - at literal level does harm championship probability in an indirect way (if one actual is thinking from a modern GMs perspective as some apparently do).

I still see people on the board ahead of him either way (Brand, otoh, for one - though I guess he had some injury related contract-underperformance) but this could make quite a difference in his ranking whether this is a considered factor or not. It would be difficult to apply consistently across all eras but I guess if one was doing that sort of thing or at least thinking along those lines Carmelo is a guy who fits the bill of wanting to be paid like the best player, but hard to win titles as the best player.


I think this is a good point.

In practice for a franchise, bang-for-buck is a real thing for understanding value. If you can replace a guy with a guy who makes have the salary, that's valuable.

The guy I think of most about this is Joe Johnson, who was quite clearly at his most valuable in a Phoenix-like role, but only got the ridiculous contracts he got because Atlanta foolishly saw him as an alpha. The result is that his actual career impact is a tiny fraction of what it probably should have been, but he made way more all-star and earned way more money than he would have had he actually played the right way.

Back to Melo:

I am factoring in the opportunity cost that he represented. For me, signing Melo to be your alpha and giving him that max contract is kinda saying "Here, take all this money to keep us from competing for titles", and in that sense, it hurts his holistic impact.

But to me this is a bigger deal because of how Melo treated the Nuggets. Because if he had stayed contented on the Nuggets, you could at least say "Well were not going to win titles, but we can have a nice long wrong as a winning team with a star our fans recognize." And to me this was basically both the best case scenario - and the easiest scenario - for Melo's career.

But he wasn't satisfied with that. What Melo showed is that if you actually built something reasonable around him, he'd turn his nose up at it, and then go somewhere else with better talent where he'd largely do worse because he had no understanding of basketball fit and so chose his next destination foolishly.

I tend to hold a grudge against players like this. If you turn your nose up at the thing that was the very best thing for you, to me you're essentially saying you were destined to end up disappointing regardless of your theoretical ceiling.


A few notes on Carmelo re: some of the things you've mentioned here and in prior posts: 

Donnie Walsh was brought in to sign/trade for 2 star FAs when he was hired by Dolan. As we saw leading up to 2010 free agency, many teams went out of their way to clear cap room for the LeBron sweepstakes like we hadn't seen before. It was a fire sale across the league.

The Knicks would settle for Amare who was a gamble at the time, already being injury prone. They notoriously couldn't get his contract insured, and for good reason. It wouldn't have surprised anyone if he dealt with injuries throughout the length of his deal, and that's exactly what happened. 

Carmelo and Amare only played 24 games together in 10-11 going into the playoffs, with Billups missing the majority of the series against the Celtics and Amare getting hurt in game 2. That would be the only season Amare was still in star form. Carmelo didn't cause Amare's body to break down. In the 3 seasons following 10-11, Amare missed 19, 52 and 17 games respectively. He quickly became a shell of himself. So while the pairing of Amare and Carmelo wouldn't be one's first choice, we didn't get to see the two play together at their best for any significant period.

As for how he left Denver, he *was* content with the team he had around him that had just made a WCF run. He wanted to continue with them. However, Masai came in as a new GM and was about to blow that core up and rebuild (it's only a 2 minute clip):

Read on Twitter


Have you read my post on him yet? For his Denver tenure I touch more on his production and team success relative to expectations. In NY I give context to the end result of each season including injuries and the ineptitude of the Knicks front office. Yes, even with what they gave up to land him, an average front office could've made better moves to build around him. Please give it a read if you haven't: viewtopic.php?p=90430778#p90430778

As objective as we try to be, we all have players we don't like for various reasons. There are several volume scorers who weren't especially notable playmakers with similar career arcs to Carmelo already voted in. Are you saying none of them should be in the top 100? If so, fair enough. It seems more like you're singling him out, though and quite frankly aren't painting an entirely accurate picture of his career.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#45 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:48 am

Thru post #43:

Bill Walton - 2 (DCasey91, HeartBreakKid)
Billy Cunningham - 2 (Cavsfansince84, Odinn21)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Connie Hawkins - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Dan Issel - 1 (trex_8063)
Carmelo Anthony - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Terry Porter - 1 (sansterre)
James Worthy - 1 (penbeast0)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)


11 votes again, no majority yet. Those bottom seven are first eliminated, which transfers two to Cunningham, one to Walton, and ghosts the other four.....

Cunningham - 4
Walton - 3
(ghosted) - 4

So Cunningham is the default winner, which will have to be validated against Walton via Condorcet.
Cunningham happens to lead Walton 6-5 in Condorcet, so his default win is upheld.


Spoiler:
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Ambrose wrote:.

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bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

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Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

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Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

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limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

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"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#46 » by falcolombardi » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:19 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:also just because a player is a flawed first option star doesnt mean he is a bad second option or second best offensive player

i think we are starting to punish second rate first options too much compared to first rate second options

is somethingh i thought about in the time of the stockton pick over players like patrick ewing, who is to say patrick ewing couldnt have been a "perfect second star" like stockton was if he got the luxury of playing with a player better than him?

in that regard i think a lot of guys who were "THE GUY" like iverson, carmelo or such could have thrived as second options even if their styles scream "first option with low portability". think of how kirye worked well enough with lebron despite not being a picture perfect second guy (neutral ish defensive side impact, needs the ball in his hands and played with a first stae who also needs the ball). and it worked pretty damn well


RE: Who is to say? People who analyzing what a player's actual attributes are and considering how they'd fit in different roles. Period. That's the deal. Yes, we can be wrong about things we've never seen, but if you're judging Ewing by saying "Maybe he could have played like Stockton, who can say?", you're quite frankly not drilling deep enough.

You mention Kyrie. How did that work? It worked specifically when Kyrie had the ball and the defense was still more afraid of LeBron, so Kyrie had a lot of room to work with. It worked with Kyrie getting to play alpha against softer defensive pressure than the vast majority of players get to work with.

Now, if you want to say that guys like Iverson or Melo might be able to play a Kyrie-like role, this makes some sense despite the fact I've been so vehement in my criticisms toward Melo.

But it makes no sense at all to say "Well y'never know, maybe Melo will turn out to be a Stockton-level passer if we tell him to do that instead of scoring." Nope. The only thing Melo ever really developed was his ability to score. That's what made him special, and putting him in any role where he was expected to focus energy on anything else is just insisting that he does what he's bad at rather than what he's good at.

And what I'm saying in general about Melo is that he's just plain not good enough at scoring to expect to lead an elite offense, he's a weakness in most everything else in his game, and if you're playing Melo next to a better scorer, that better scorer would be better suited to play with a different player type.

For example, we can say nice things about how Kyrie looked with LeBron, but what we saw from AD last year was vastly more valuable to LeBron because he brought stuff to the table LeBron could not rather than just being "a second scorer".

Last thing I'm going to say is this - and I want to apologize up front for being on a mean streak right now:

The general rule is that what top tier talents want around them are smart team players. Guys who are good at making decisions. Guys who are good at understanding what their teammates need. Guys who work together as if they are part of a hive mind.

And this more than anything else is the issue with the Melo's of the world. Melo always played dumb. Even when he had the ball in his hands looking to score, he wasn't good at figuring out how to get the super-efficient shot, and that was literally the smartest part of his game.

So when I see something along the lines of "Who can say? Maybe this individualist whose always seemed clueless to the needs of his teammates will turn into John Stockton if he just played with a better scorer.", to me that's just a non-starter.

Okay, I think I should stop. My apologies for my rudeness.

no offense taken, thanks for the detailed answer
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 

Post#47 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:15 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Owly wrote:Regarding the bracketed ... this kind of plays into something touched on in the longevity vs peak Walton availability debate ... how you account for money. Because in all eras (being a big minute, high scorer, college star, high pick),but perhaps especially in the individual player max era he (reasonably enough) chooses to earn money at a LeBron level in a way that - at literal level does harm championship probability in an indirect way (if one actual is thinking from a modern GMs perspective as some apparently do).

I still see people on the board ahead of him either way (Brand, otoh, for one - though I guess he had some injury related contract-underperformance) but this could make quite a difference in his ranking whether this is a considered factor or not. It would be difficult to apply consistently across all eras but I guess if one was doing that sort of thing or at least thinking along those lines Carmelo is a guy who fits the bill of wanting to be paid like the best player, but hard to win titles as the best player.


I think this is a good point.

In practice for a franchise, bang-for-buck is a real thing for understanding value. If you can replace a guy with a guy who makes have the salary, that's valuable.

The guy I think of most about this is Joe Johnson, who was quite clearly at his most valuable in a Phoenix-like role, but only got the ridiculous contracts he got because Atlanta foolishly saw him as an alpha. The result is that his actual career impact is a tiny fraction of what it probably should have been, but he made way more all-star and earned way more money than he would have had he actually played the right way.

Back to Melo:

I am factoring in the opportunity cost that he represented. For me, signing Melo to be your alpha and giving him that max contract is kinda saying "Here, take all this money to keep us from competing for titles", and in that sense, it hurts his holistic impact.

But to me this is a bigger deal because of how Melo treated the Nuggets. Because if he had stayed contented on the Nuggets, you could at least say "Well were not going to win titles, but we can have a nice long wrong as a winning team with a star our fans recognize." And to me this was basically both the best case scenario - and the easiest scenario - for Melo's career.

But he wasn't satisfied with that. What Melo showed is that if you actually built something reasonable around him, he'd turn his nose up at it, and then go somewhere else with better talent where he'd largely do worse because he had no understanding of basketball fit and so chose his next destination foolishly.

I tend to hold a grudge against players like this. If you turn your nose up at the thing that was the very best thing for you, to me you're essentially saying you were destined to end up disappointing regardless of your theoretical ceiling.


A few notes on Carmelo re: some of the things you've mentioned here and in prior posts: 

Donnie Walsh was brought in to sign/trade for 2 star FAs when he was hired by Dolan. As we saw leading up to 2010 free agency, many teams went out of their way to clear cap room for the LeBron sweepstakes like we hadn't seen before. It was a fire sale across the league.

The Knicks would settle for Amare who was a gamble at the time, already being injury prone. They notoriously couldn't get his contract insured, and for good reason. It wouldn't have surprised anyone if he dealt with injuries throughout the length of his deal, and that's exactly what happened. 

Carmelo and Amare only played 24 games together in 10-11 going into the playoffs, with Billups missing the majority of the series against the Celtics and Amare getting hurt in game 2. That would be the only season Amare was still in star form. Carmelo didn't cause Amare's body to break down. In the 3 seasons following 10-11, Amare missed 19, 52 and 17 games respectively. He quickly became a shell of himself. So while the pairing of Amare and Carmelo wouldn't be one's first choice, we didn't get to see the two play together at their best for any significant period.

As for how he left Denver, he *was* content with the team he had around him that had just made a WCF run. He wanted to continue with them. However, Masai came in as a new GM and was about to blow that core up and rebuild (it's only a 2 minute clip):

Read on Twitter


Have you read my post on him yet? For his Denver tenure I touch more on his production and team success relative to expectations. In NY I give context to the end result of each season including injuries and the ineptitude of the Knicks front office. Yes, even with what they gave up to land him, an average front office could've made better moves to build around him. Please give it a read if you haven't: viewtopic.php?p=90430778#p90430778

As objective as we try to be, we all have players we don't like for various reasons. There are several volume scorers who weren't especially notable playmakers with similar career arcs to Carmelo already voted in. Are you saying none of them should be in the top 100? If so, fair enough. It seems more like you're singling him out, though and quite frankly aren't painting an entirely accurate picture of his career.


I appreciate your knowledge, patience, and the effort you put into these posts.

I want to say first that there are certainly other guys voted in in this project that are in the same category of "Pay them a lot of money to guarantee you never win a championship", and I'd have them much lower. Some of them certainly not in my Top 100, some just lower. I suppose you might say that Melo's unlucky that he's still not in when I came back into the project.

To your point of Melo being content and Masai wanting to blow it up.

Building around a 26 year old (Melo) means that a certain point you have to stop paying the guy who is 8 years older than him (Billups). The stuff I've read has not given me the impression that Masai had decided he wanted to get rid of Melo right from the jump, so to me what we're talking about is a necessary re-centering of the roster to be closer to the age of the franchise player.

If you have different information, please share it, but to me, either rookie-GM-with-no-clout Masai decided his first move was to get rid of Melo, or Melo got upset at Masai for actually doing what needed to happen to build around Melo in the longer term, or...

none of that has anything to do with why Melo specifically forced his way to the largest market in the league, or why Melo decided to do that prior to free agency which thus forced the Knicks to give up would-be surrounding talent.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 (Billy Cunningham) 

Post#48 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:24 am

By the way:

I'm glad Cunningham got in. Always thought he was a special player.

Hawkins tidbit: He & Cunningham grew up in NYC at the same time and were aware of each other from high school days. Hawkins liked and respected Cunningham a great deal.

According to Hawkins, Black players in general thought that white players in general were treated favorably by the refs, with Cunningham being the exception because, to paraphrase, "Cunningham's game was black".

I'm not sure how to feel about any of that, but it's interesting.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #89 (Billy Cunningham) 

Post#49 » by falcolombardi » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:49 am

Doctor MJ wrote:By the way:

I'm glad Cunningham got in. Always thought he was a special player.

Hawkins tidbit: He & Cunningham grew up in NYC at the same time and were aware of each other from high school days. Hawkins liked and respected Cunningham a great deal.

According to Hawkins, Black players in general thought that white players in general were treated favorably by the refs, with Cunningham being the exception because, to paraphrase, "Cunningham's game was black".

I'm not sure how to feel about any of that, but it's interesting.


racism in reffing seems sadly like a given for the era

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