[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Mavericks

[HeartBreakKid]

1)2011 Dirk Nowitzki - 09-11 is the best version to me, seems like his scoring was harder to stop in the post season.

2) 2020 Luka Doncic - Top 5-6 player in the league that year.

3) 2003 Steve Nash - Potential wasn't unlocked but he was still an offensive great lying dormant.

4) 2009 Jason Kidd - I think he just does more to help a team win. Still elite defensively. Still a great passer. Still a great floor general. He's a 40% 3 point shooter on high volume for his era. Only thing he doesn't do well is score, but it's worth noting in the post season he scored like 12 points on 60 TS% or something in a more deflated pace era. Derek Harper's main advantage is that he is a more of a scorer, yet I feel picking 1987 is selective because he may have benefited from a tiny sample size in the post season. Harper scored exactly 13.5 points per game in both 86 and 88; one of those seasons his efficiency was not good also. So I do think that Harper's scoring advantage is not as big as one would think and that he may have just benefited more from taking advantage of the RS. Harper's low turnovers (1.3 TOV??) does make him enticing, but I read him more of a guy who can protect the ball very well as opposed to an orchestrater in Kidd. Would I say other players who protect the ball very well like Conley or Lowry are better playmakers and floor generals than Kidd as well - probably not.

5) 1984 Mark Aguirre - I do think his numbers and correlation with how good the Mavs offense are a bit too hard to ignore. He's the type of player who I want to say is worse than more nuanced defensive oriented players, but I gotta get a vote in and for now I'll just keep Mark in.

[Max123]

You are not the only person I’ve seen using those kinds of numbers to indicate player impact (or whatever word you want to use).
Does it have something to do with perhaps how many points a player adds to a team per 100 (75?) possessions?

I try to do per game. It simplifies multi-era comparisons quite a bit, I think.

How do you approximate them assuming there is no direct formula that spits them out?

We do have a frame of reference that roughly approximates players' impacts. Going from there, you kinda estimate and compare with other players that we do have more data on, it's mostly by feel.

It has a big margin of error though, between the inherent error of the method, my own opinions can also be wrong (they are subjective opinions built-in over an objective-ish frame of reference, after all), adjusting for roster construction is nebulous and tricky, etc... Maybe Dirk, who I rated a +5.50, is actually a +7. Or a +4. I can't really know. Taylor has old Dallas Kidd as a barely above +0 player while I have him at about +1.5. Who knows.

Also how do you go about thinking how that number changes from team-to-team (portability/scalability) or is that something that is generally disregarded?

Don't like portability as a external concept to player evaluation. If I feel it's relevant, it's included. Don't feel it's that relevant to that many players.

.

That's fair although 2012 Melo is not really comparable to peak Aguirre.

Is that frame of reference perhaps RAPM and xRAPM stats?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Jaivl]

You are not the only person I’ve seen using those kinds of numbers to indicate player impact (or whatever word you want to use).
Does it have something to do with perhaps how many points a player adds to a team per 100 (75?) possessions?

I try to do per game. It simplifies multi-era comparisons quite a bit, I think.

How do you approximate them assuming there is no direct formula that spits them out?

We do have a frame of reference that roughly approximates players' impacts. Going from there, you kinda estimate and compare with other players that we do have more data on, it's mostly by feel.

It has a big margin of error though, between the inherent error of the method, my own opinions can also be wrong (they are subjective opinions built-in over an objective-ish frame of reference, after all), adjusting for roster construction is nebulous and tricky, etc... Maybe Dirk, who I rated a +5.50, is actually a +7. Or a +4. I can't really know. Taylor has old Dallas Kidd as a barely above +0 player while I have him at about +1.5. Who knows.

Also how do you go about thinking how that number changes from team-to-team (portability/scalability) or is that something that is generally disregarded?

Don't like portability as a external concept to player evaluation. If I feel it's relevant, it's included. Don't feel it's that relevant to that many players.

.

That's fair although 2012 Melo is not really comparable to peak Aguirre.

Is that frame of reference perhaps RAPM and xRAPM stats?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

The number in RAPM is sort of fictitious in terms of real point impact, and xRAPM has boxscore so I don't care that much about it.

Multi-season APM (not R) and with/without.

[Max123]

I try to do per game. It simplifies multi-era comparisons quite a bit, I think.


We do have a frame of reference that roughly approximates players' impacts. Going from there, you kinda estimate and compare with other players that we do have more data on, it's mostly by feel.

It has a big margin of error though, between the inherent error of the method, my own opinions can also be wrong (they are subjective opinions built-in over an objective-ish frame of reference, after all), adjusting for roster construction is nebulous and tricky, etc... Maybe Dirk, who I rated a +5.50, is actually a +7. Or a +4. I can't really know. Taylor has old Dallas Kidd as a barely above +0 player while I have him at about +1.5. Who knows.


Don't like portability as a external concept to player evaluation. If I feel it's relevant, it's included. Don't feel it's that relevant to that many players.


That's fair although 2012 Melo is not really comparable to peak Aguirre.

Is that frame of reference perhaps RAPM and xRAPM stats?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

The number in RAPM is sort of fictitious in terms of real point impact, and xRAPM has boxscore so I don't care that much about it.

Multi-season APM (not R) and with/without.

Any chance of receiving that multi-year APM data?

[Odinn21]

Thanks for the link!

Possible ignorant question: are these numbers minute-adjusted? Ie, if Player A is +5 RAPM on 40 minutes a game and Player B is +5 RAPM on 35 minutes a game, is Player A the better player, or are the numbers taking minutes into account?

Those are per 100 numbers. So, playtime and pace are factored in.

---

2. 2021 Luka

I missed this one. 2020-21 season is ineligible for this project. Do you have 2020 Doncic over 2003 Nash too? I'm recording votes right now.

---

Ah, I forgot to post my selections apparently.

1. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki
It's obvious that Nowitzki is #1 in here. In 2011 he was more impactful on offense as he polished his game but in 2006 his motor was higher, he was playing more defense and was also more focused on grabbing boards. So, that's why I usually have 2006 over 2011.

2. 2003 Steve Nash
Surprised to see it's almost given that Doncic is over Nash in here. Both were monsters on offense, I'd rate 2003 Nash's offense very similarly to 2020 Doncic. Both were defensive liabilities, Doncic more so. So, that's why I have Nash over Doncic.
Edit; forgot to mention that Doncic missed too many games for my taste (14 missed games in 75), while Nash missed none.

3. 2020 Luka Doncic
With the way he's going, 2021 Doncic would surpass 2003 Nash but here we are.

4. 1984 Mark Aguirre
I was considering 1988 version over 1984 version as the team did very well, especially in the playoffs with forcing the great Showtime Lakers to a game 7. But on individual level, Aguirre performed better in 1984 and I think he has this spot.

5. 2009 Jason Kidd
Well, the Mavs did not have too many exceptional centrepieces. There are Derek Harper, Rolando Blackman, Michael Finley, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd. Of all these complementary pieces, with his insane shooting efficiency and defense combination, Kidd is the one I would take. I would've picked Derek Harper (1990 version) if he managed to keep his defensive level while he was moving towards bigger offensive role. But it did not happen.

---

This one has roughly 3 and a half hours until the deadline.

[Max123]

Thanks for the link!

Possible ignorant question: are these numbers minute-adjusted? Ie, if Player A is +5 RAPM on 40 minutes a game and Player B is +5 RAPM on 35 minutes a game, is Player A the better player, or are the numbers taking minutes into account?

Those are per 100 numbers. So, playtime and pace are factored in.

---

2. 2021 Luka

I missed this one. 2020-21 season is ineligible for this project. Do you have 2020 Doncic over 2003 Nash too? I'm recording votes right now.

---

Ah, I forgot to post my selections apparently.

1. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki
It's obvious that Nowitzki is #1 in here. In 2011 he was more impactful on offense as he polished his game but in 2006 his motor was higher, he was playing more defense and was also more focused on grabbing boards. So, that's why I usually have 2006 over 2011.

2. 2003 Steve Nash
Surprised to see it's almost given that Doncic is over Nash in here. Both were monsters on offense, I'd rate 2003 Nash's offense very similarly to 2020 Doncic. Both were defensive liabilities, Doncic more so. So, that's why I have Nash over Doncic.

3. 2020 Luka Doncic
With the way he's going, 2021 Doncic would surpass 2003 Nash but here we are.

4. 1984 Mark Aguirre
I was considering 1988 version over 1984 version as the team did very well, especially in the playoffs with forcing the great Showtime Lakers to a game 7. But on individual level, Aguirre performed better in 1984 and I think he has this spot.

5. 2009 Jason Kidd
Well, the Mavs did not have too many exceptional centrepieces. There are Derek Harper, Rolando Blackman, Michael Finley, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd. Of all these complementary pieces, with his insane shooting efficiency and defense combination, Kidd is the one I would take. I would've picked Derek Harper (1990 version) if he managed to keep his defensive level while he was moving towards bigger offensive role. But it did not happen.

---

This one has roughly 3 and a half hours until the deadline.

Seems like you are an outlier when it comes to picking 2003 Nash over 2020 Doncic. What makes you prefer Nash?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Odinn21]

Seems like you are an outlier when it comes to picking 2003 Nash over 2020 Doncic. What makes you prefer Nash?

As I explained in my post, I have Nash in the same tier as Doncic offensively and rate Nash as a less of a defensive liability.
I've always been pretty critical of Nash's defense, 2020 Doncic was even worse imho.
Also I'm pretty big on number of missed games. Doncic missed 14 games in 75 game reg. season in 2019-20 while Nash missed none in full 82 game season in 2002-03.

Even if we scrutinise their offense and defense, and come to the conclusion of those 2 being equals or Doncic being slightly better, I don't think Doncic is that better to excuse missing almost one fifth of the seasons.

[Dutchball97]

Seems like you are an outlier when it comes to picking 2003 Nash over 2020 Doncic. What makes you prefer Nash?

As I explained in my post, I have Nash in the same tier as Doncic offensively and rate Nash as a less of a defensive liability.
I've always been pretty critical of Nash's defense, 2020 Doncic was even worse imho.
Also I'm pretty big on number of missed games. Doncic missed 14 games in 75 game reg. season in 2019-20 while Nash missed none in full 82 game season in 2002-03.

Even if we scrutinise their offense and defense, and come to the conclusion of those 2 being equals or Doncic being slightly better, I don't think Doncic is that better to excuse missing almost one fifth of the seasons.

But how do you account for the play-offs then? Luka played really well against the Clippers and posted similar numbers to his regular season stats, while Nash definitely didn't hold up as well in the play-offs. His PER dropping from 22.6 to 18.1 and his OBPM going from 5.4 to 3.9 is pretty significant. With Nash it also came in a 20 game sample size, which is about as reliable as they come for the post-season. I'm honestly not even sure if we can confidently claim Nash was better in the 03 play-offs than Van Exel and Finley.

[Odinn21]

Seems like you are an outlier when it comes to picking 2003 Nash over 2020 Doncic. What makes you prefer Nash?

As I explained in my post, I have Nash in the same tier as Doncic offensively and rate Nash as a less of a defensive liability.
I've always been pretty critical of Nash's defense, 2020 Doncic was even worse imho.
Also I'm pretty big on number of missed games. Doncic missed 14 games in 75 game reg. season in 2019-20 while Nash missed none in full 82 game season in 2002-03.

Even if we scrutinise their offense and defense, and come to the conclusion of those 2 being equals or Doncic being slightly better, I don't think Doncic is that better to excuse missing almost one fifth of the seasons.

But how do you account for the play-offs then? Luka played really well against the Clippers and posted similar numbers to his regular season stats, while Nash definitely didn't hold up as well in the play-offs. His PER dropping from 22.6 to 18.1 and his OBPM going from 5.4 to 3.9 is pretty significant. With Nash it also came in a 20 game sample size, which is about as reliable as they come for the post-season. I'm honestly not even sure if we can confidently claim Nash was better in the 03 play-offs than Van Exel and Finley.

To me, in terms of total value of a season, each individual has their unique combination of regular season and postseason weighting. I don't go 50/50 or more towards postseason like you do.
Here's how I mean; when we compare a top 10 ever level player to another top 10 ever player for single season peak, regular season performance and durability/motor are taken for granted because the gap is usually so little there and we look at postseason performances to decide the better one. That's what separates Olajuwon from Robinson for example.
But I don't see it that way in here. The missed games, especially when it's 10+, they usually take too much from a team. Consider this, the Mavs went 7-7 without Doncic and the Mavs were only a couple wins away from being #4 seed. Doncic's durability issues put his team against a higher seed / a better team. Nash being constantly there helped his team to reach #2 seed and it helped their postseason run to be deep.

In terms of direct performances, you're right, Doncic in 2020 postseason performed better than Nash in 2003 postseason. But when I take how affected these postseasons are from durability, I don't see a good case for Doncic. Without Doncic's durability issues, the Mavs were likely to see the 2nd round. I think that's gotta count too.

[Texas Chuck]

no chance 03 Nash was better defensively than 20 Luka. All of Luka's bad habits, Nash had the same ones, only he didn't also have the size of Luka nor the hands, and frankly come the bubble and playoffs nowhere near the effort Luka showed.

And discussing durability, this was always the issue for Nash come playoffs. He lived a party lifestyle and he wasn't managing his back issues and he wore down at the end of every season in Dallas, particularly on defense. Literally anyone following Dallas at the time could tell you this.

We have either forgotten who Nash really was or are attempting to re-write the narrative based on what happened in Phoenix where he became a dad, stopped going out every night, got fanatical about his fitness and back routine in an effort to show Cuban what a mistake he made. But none of that had happened by 2003. Mike Bibby torching Nash was still an annual playoff tradition.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote incoming in a few min, sorry Odinn.

[Odinn21]

The Mavericks results;

Code: Select all

 1. 12- 1- 0-0-0 / 127 points / 0.977 share / '11 Dirk Nowitzki
 2.  1-11- 1-0-0 /  92 points / 0.708 share / '20 Luka Doncic
 3.  0- 1-12-0-0 /  67 points / 0.515 share / '03 Steve Nash
 4.  0- 0- 0-6-3 /  18 points / 0.162 share / '84 Mark Aguirre
 5.  0- 0- 0-2-4 /  10 points / 0.077 share / '09 Jason Kidd

 6.  0- 0- 0-2-3 /   9 points / 0.066 share / '87 Derek Harper
 7.  0- 0- 0-2-1 /   1 points / 0.054 share / '11 Tyson Chandler
 8.  0- 0- 0-1-0 /   3 points / 0.023 share / '84 Rolando Blackman
 9.  0- 0- 0-0-1 /   1 points / 0.008 share / '07 Jason Terry
10.  0- 0- 0-0-1 /   1 points / 0.008 share / '02 Michael Finley

Results on Google Sheet

[Clyde Frazier]

1) 2011 Dirk Nowitzki - I prefer this version of dirk who mastered footwork to the point that he was basically unguardable. Even with the somewhat down finals relative to the rest of his playoff run, he still came up huge in big moments leading the mavs to the title.

2) 2020 Luka Doncic - His ability to wear down his opponent with sheer talent at only 20 years old was so impressive. Put up a valiant effort in the playoffs against the clippers when KP went down.

3) 2003 Steve Nash - Led a historically great offense and to this day doesn't get enough credit for his play in dallas. Who knows how far the mavs go if dirk doesn't get hurt in the WCF vs the spurs.

4) 1984 Mark Aguirre - One of the many decent volume scoring SFs of the 80s. Put together a nice all round season at 29.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.5 APG and 1 SPG on 57.2% TS (+2.9 rTS).

5) 2002 Michael Finley - He didn't get much traction here but i want to give him his due. Finley was a talented player who could do a bit of everything on offense. Explosive finisher at the rim, solid mid range game and could extend out to 3 as well. Decent playmaker for his position. He also transitioned from a guy playing 40+ MPG as the main guy and fit in well with dirk and nash as they ascended. They formed a terrific trio together that was split up too soon.

[Odinn21]

...

I’ll add your vote to tally in a couple of hours, I’m out and on mobile right now. I had the tally ready on my email to post it.

[Clyde Frazier]

...

I’ll add your vote to tally in a couple of hours, I’m out and on mobile right now. I had the tally ready on my email to post it.

Thanks!

[Texas Chuck]

5) 2002 Michael Finley - He didn't get much traction here but i want to give him his due. Finley was a talented player who could do a bit of everything on offense. Explosive finisher at the rim, solid mid range game and could extend out to 3 as well. Decent playmaker for his position. He also transitioned from a guy playing 40+ MPG as the main guy and fit in well with dirk and nash as they ascended. They formed a terrific trio together that was split up too soon.

Glad you included him. One of my favorite Mavs of all-time. Probably 4th behind Dirk, Barea, and Harp. Everything that is right about a professional basketball player and I'm glad to see he's become increasingly an important voice in the Mavs FO.

That guy came here as the prize in that horrific Kidd trade and played his tail off. Led the league in minute like every single year, once the Mavs became a playoff team he played literally every single meaningful minute never coming off the court when games were still in doubt. Could do a little bit of everything and frankly had to those first couple years in Dallas where he was all they had.

Then perhaps most impressively was able to understand the reality that Dirk and Nash were just better offensive players than him once they ramped up and just settled into a 3rd option role and worked tireless on his jumper knowing that was what was needed.


That said, I'm not sold that splitting the trio up was wrong. I mean Dallas lost both Nash and Finley and received zero in return. Nada. Zip. Zilch. And got better. Immediately. Should be impossible, but it happened. I think Dirk is so special an offensive anchor that replacing them with defenders was the correct team building approach. The offense dipped a bit, but was still elite and now the defense was good enough to compete. It seem crazy to think about losing players of that caliber for nothing being a good thing, but I really think it was. I also think it forced Dirk to lead which was never going to happen with either of those guys there. He was always going to defer. He talks almost reverently about what those two guys meant to him as a young player.


And finally my favorite Finley moments were in that first playoff series in forever against the aging Jazz legends and he had two monster posters on Olden Polynice and I do not recall any trash-talking or taunting by Finley ever, but after the 2nd one I remember him looking at Polynice and holding up 2 fingers to let him know he got him twice. I enjoyed that so much for some reason.

[migya]

I don't know if I'm allowed to vote or not since I haven't been in this project(am I?), but just wanted to say that 1984 Rolando Blackman might be a choice to consider at #4 or #5. 22.4ppg, 4.6rpg, 3.6apg, 9.8 WS, 3.3 VORP, 59.6% TS. Any number of guys good for those spots, and most have been mentioned, but I didn't see Blackman's name come up so thought I would throw it out there.

Blackman was certainly a great player and neck and neck with Aguirre, as he was a better defender. Those Mavs had potential and almost broke out there.

[HeartBreakKid]

Yeah, I'm not really sure who the best Maverick is during the 80s. A bit of a blind spot for me. Mavericks never had the best press back in those days.

[Odinn21]

no chance 03 Nash was better defensively than 20 Luka. All of Luka's bad habits, Nash had the same ones, only he didn't also have the size of Luka nor the hands, and frankly come the bubble and playoffs nowhere near the effort Luka showed.

And discussing durability, this was always the issue for Nash come playoffs. He lived a party lifestyle and he wasn't managing his back issues and he wore down at the end of every season in Dallas, particularly on defense. Literally anyone following Dallas at the time could tell you this.

We have either forgotten who Nash really was or are attempting to re-write the narrative based on what happened in Phoenix where he became a dad, stopped going out every night, got fanatical about his fitness and back routine in an effort to show Cuban what a mistake he made. But none of that had happened by 2003. Mike Bibby torching Nash was still an annual playoff tradition.

As we get to new franchises, I try to watch some related full games and Nash did not come across as bad as I remember him in the games I get my hands on. I'll defer to your position on the issue because I'm sure your recollection on the matter, especially in a general sense, is better than mine.
I did not say it to create an alternative narrative/reality. I guess I was just off on that one. Though I think I'd still prefer Nash over Doncic due to Doncic missing nearly one fifth of the regular season.

[Clyde Frazier]

5) 2002 Michael Finley - He didn't get much traction here but i want to give him his due. Finley was a talented player who could do a bit of everything on offense. Explosive finisher at the rim, solid mid range game and could extend out to 3 as well. Decent playmaker for his position. He also transitioned from a guy playing 40+ MPG as the main guy and fit in well with dirk and nash as they ascended. They formed a terrific trio together that was split up too soon.

Glad you included him. One of my favorite Mavs of all-time. Probably 4th behind Dirk, Barea, and Harp. Everything that is right about a professional basketball player and I'm glad to see he's become increasingly an important voice in the Mavs FO.

That guy came here as the prize in that horrific Kidd trade and played his tail off. Led the league in minute like every single year, once the Mavs became a playoff team he played literally every single meaningful minute never coming off the court when games were still in doubt. Could do a little bit of everything and frankly had to those first couple years in Dallas where he was all they had.

Then perhaps most impressively was able to understand the reality that Dirk and Nash were just better offensive players than him once they ramped up and just settled into a 3rd option role and worked tireless on his jumper knowing that was what was needed.


That said, I'm not sold that splitting the trio up was wrong. I mean Dallas lost both Nash and Finley and received zero in return. Nada. Zip. Zilch. And got better. Immediately. Should be impossible, but it happened. I think Dirk is so special an offensive anchor that replacing them with defenders was the correct team building approach. The offense dipped a bit, but was still elite and now the defense was good enough to compete. It seem crazy to think about losing players of that caliber for nothing being a good thing, but I really think it was. I also think it forced Dirk to lead which was never going to happen with either of those guys there. He was always going to defer. He talks almost reverently about what those two guys meant to him as a young player.


And finally my favorite Finley moments were in that first playoff series in forever against the aging Jazz legends and he had two monster posters on Olden Polynice and I do not recall any trash-talking or taunting by Finley ever, but after the 2nd one I remember him looking at Polynice and holding up 2 fingers to let him know he got him twice. I enjoyed that so much for some reason.

That's a fair point about Dirk's ability to grow as a player after they left. He developed such a great 2 man game with Terry too. I guess my thinking is in those years where they struggled in the playoffs between 2006 and 2011, Nash really could've elevated them and it'd be interesting to see how he'd mesh with Carlisle. And I could see Finley transitioning into the same role he had in San an.

And yeah, as a kid I was first drawn to him by his sheer athleticism. If he got the first step on you, it was 1-2 dribbles into his hop step at the rim for an aggressive slam. And he had huge hands for some great acrobatic finishes. It's nice to see him back with the mavs front office. That was a pleasant surprise.