How good is Giannis offensively?

[SickMother]

similar to a larger, worse passing/playmaing Westbrook in that regard [though Westbrook was a significantly better shooter--which isn't a good sign].

How good is he offensively? Around Kevin Garnett level.

Westbrook career TS+: 96 | season high TS+: 102
Garnett career TS+: 103 | season high TS+ : 110

Giannis career TS+: 109 | season high TS+: 115

If Westbrook is a significantly better shooter why are his TS+ marks significantly lower?

Giannis was also more efficient on higher volume with a higher AST% than Garnett. Easily a level above KG on offense.

[SickMother]

Jrue had a .542 TS% in seven seasons with NOP & a has .593 TS% in two seasons with the Bucks.

I'd say playing with Giannis has made him more efficient on the offensive end.

[sp6r=underrated]

The best parallel I have for Giannis's offense, and it isn't perfect, is Clyde Drexler. Both are absurdly dangerous in full court situations, masters at turning defensive rebounds into slam dunks Giannis is better than Drexler but I think he shares some of the limitations Clyde had against disciplined half court defenses.

[Colbinii]

similar to a larger, worse passing/playmaing Westbrook in that regard [though Westbrook was a significantly better shooter--which isn't a good sign].

How good is he offensively? Around Kevin Garnett level.

Westbrook career TS+: 96 | season high TS+: 102
Garnett career TS+: 103 | season high TS+ : 110

Giannis career TS+: 109 | season high TS+: 115

If Westbrook is a significantly better shooter why are his TS+ marks significantly lower?

Giannis was also more efficient on higher volume with a higher AST% than Garnett. Easily a level above KG on offense.

The shot profiles are different for Westbrook/Giannis [though similar enough in 2016 to make ample comparisons]. The biggest difference between the two is the vast amount of spacing Giannis had to work with in comparison to Westbrook.

2022 Bucks 3par: 43.0% [6th], 38.3 3PA/100 Possessions
2016 Thunder 3Par: 27.5% [19th], 24.3 3PA/100 Possessions

Giannis On-Court: 118.0 Ortg [+6.0 Rel Lg Avg]
Westbrook On-Court: 116.0 Ortg [+9.6 Rel Lg Avg]

Westbrooks offensive value isn't about being ultra-efficient, it was about applying GOAT level rim pressure and collapsing defenses similar to the way Giannis does. Both players were equally as dangerous in the fast-break with Giannis taking a larger amount of his shots in the fast break.

Giannis: 27.6% Possessions, 1.14 PPP, 52.5 Percentile
Westbrook: 23.3% Possessions, 1.15 PPP, 58.3 Percentile

Westbrook also produced a higher AST Rate and lower TOV rate out of drives in comparison to Giannis [Who again, had significantly more spacing to work with].

Comparisons with box-scores get difficult across-era [2003/2004 to 2022] and combined with the completely different roles the players played in and how basketball has evolved make the comaprsion not exactly apples to apples to Garnett. I like Garnett as a complimentary piece compared to Giannis while Giannis is a better 1A than Garnett, Giannis isn't in the upper echelon of the 1A players and Garnett is one of the best 1B/2 offensive players in NBA History.

[SickMother]

People throwing out Amar'e as a comp.

Sure, he had some explosive high efficiency seasons with the Suns while he was getting set up by a two time MVP in Nash.

Giannis plays the role of Nash & Amar'e on his team.

[No-more-rings]

People throwing out Amar'e as a comp.

Sure, he had some explosive high efficiency seasons with the Suns while he was getting set up by a two time MVP in Nash.

Giannis plays the role of Nash & Amar'e on his team.

Nash wasn't solely or even mostly responsibly for a guy averaging 30 ppg on 62 ts% in a playoffs. And the point was raw scoring, not things like passing abilities.

[falcolombardi]

Jrue had a .542 TS% in seven seasons with NOP & a has .593 TS% in two seasons with the Bucks.

I'd say playing with Giannis has made him more efficient on the offensive end.

to be fair, the league enviroment has changed a crazy amount between jrue time with new orleans and the 2020's when he is with the bucks

to say nothingh of jrue own improvements tjrough his time in new orleans, he was a better offensive player coming into bucks than coming into new orleans

[falcolombardi]

similar to a larger, worse passing/playmaing Westbrook in that regard [though Westbrook was a significantly better shooter--which isn't a good sign].

How good is he offensively? Around Kevin Garnett level.

Westbrook career TS+: 96 | season high TS+: 102
Garnett career TS+: 103 | season high TS+ : 110

Giannis career TS+: 109 | season high TS+: 115

If Westbrook is a significantly better shooter why are his TS+ marks significantly lower?

Giannis was also more efficient on higher volume with a higher AST% than Garnett. Easily a level above KG on offense.

The shot profiles are different for Westbrook/Giannis [though similar enough in 2016 to make ample comparisons]. The biggest difference between the two is the vast amount of spacing Giannis had to work with in comparison to Westbrook.

2022 Bucks 3par: 43.0% [6th], 38.3 3PA/100 Possessions
2016 Thunder 3Par: 27.5% [19th], 24.3 3PA/100 Possessions

Giannis On-Court: 118.0 Ortg [+6.0 Rel Lg Avg]
Westbrook On-Court: 116.0 Ortg [+9.6 Rel Lg Avg]

Westbrooks offensive value isn't about being ultra-efficient, it was about applying GOAT level rim pressure and collapsing defenses similar to the way Giannis does. Both players were equally as dangerous in the fast-break with Giannis taking a larger amount of his shots in the fast break.

Giannis: 27.6% Possessions, 1.14 PPP, 52.5 Percentile
Westbrook: 23.3% Possessions, 1.15 PPP, 58.3 Percentile

Westbrook also produced a higher AST Rate and lower TOV rate out of drives in comparison to Giannis [Who again, had significantly more spacing to work with].

Comparisons with box-scores get difficult across-era [2003/2004 to 2022] and combined with the completely different roles the players played in and how basketball has evolved make the comaprsion not exactly apples to apples to Garnett. I like Garnett as a complimentary piece compared to Giannis while Giannis is a better 1A than Garnett, Giannis isn't in the upper echelon of the 1A players and Garnett is one of the best 1B/2 offensive players in NBA History.

talking positively about prime westbrook is a lost cause here, i know from experience lol

i have been told that westbrook was not a good enough decision maker to play on ball in a contender (+6 to +8 offenses not being good enough) so he should have been a 3 and D player instead and he could have easily became a better defender and shooter if he was not asked to handle the ball

the comparision used was that he could have been like marcus smart instead, and a marcus smart is better for a team than a peak russel westbrook

[jalengreen]

i dont think giannis makes his teammates that much better either but the standard here is donovan mitchell. not better playmaking guards like dame or trae. mitchell is not a strong playmaker due to his reluctance to.. well, playmake, and he doesn't have the gravity that giannis has. citing a single alley oop play doesn't really hold much weight

mitchell's floor is clearly lower than giannis' because his scoring is naturally more inconsistent. and when he's not scoring efficiently because his shots aren't falling, he doesn't have the gravity of giannis to still have as high of an offensive impact. but when giannis isn't scoring efficiently, the bucks are still able to generate high quality shots because he doesnt have the tunnel vision of mitchell and it usually means the defense is putting more attention on the interior which opens up wide open 3s

the issue to me is donovan mitchell's playmaking. i'm just not high on it at all, especially versus a guy like dame (who i think *is* better offensively than giannis, at least in his 2020 and 2021 form) who i view as an elite playmaker.

[jalengreen]

One of the best shooters and off dribble scorers in the league. Can get tunnel vision but his driving and bullet passes is a massive part of Utahs offense too. He had a mid series against Dallas but we shouldnt forget how incredible he was in the last 2 playoffs. Numbers speak for themselves. He was outplaying Kawhi and Pg last year and the year before was the best offensive player in a series with Jokic. Mitchell is a horrendous defender but hes a great great offensive talent

earlier you mentioned the shooters around giannis earlier helping his numbers.. does this not to some extent apply to utah? conley, ingles, royce, niang.. all fantastic shooters

yes mitchell has had some great playoff performances. as has giannis, no doubt. earlier you mentioned that he performs well against slow footed bigs while struggling against the right teams... but mitchell's premier playoff performance was against the nuggets in the bubble, were they really an optimal team to defend donovan mitchell? i'm not so sure...

also giannis' playmaking is no doubt a massive part of the bucks' offense. he has improved a ton at his ability to hit shooters in the right spots off of drives, i think it's fair to mention his value in that regard

and another key part of offense is getting to the free throw line. giannis excels in that category to an extent that mitchell certainly can't touch

i also don't think the "numbers speak for themselves" argument is very strong either when the earlier rgument seemed to be "well for giannis the numbers *don't* speak for themselves. they're inflated because of context." it feels like giannis is being held to a higher standard here and the same scrutiny isn't being applied to mitchell. mitchell's tunnel vision is a massive problem and certainly makes his scoring numbers look better

Mitchell has a lower offensive floor than Giannis when he isn't hitting his 3s, however,

against the Grizzlies last year. He averaged 28.5 pts per game in 29.9 MPG on 60.9 TS%. Absurd scoring. His clippers series gets even better. Mitchell averaged 34.8 ppg in 37.7 MPG on 59.8 TS%. In 2020 he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and PS Offensive EPM. In 2021, he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and #2 in PS O-EPM. If you believe enough in the 17 game sample size of the 2 PS, then there you have it.

i don't think postseason xRAPM metrics are super meaningful due to the sample size. at that point it'll be heavily based on the box score prior

regular season O-LEBRON and O-EPM favor giannis fwiw

[Statlanta]

Probably top 10 in the league, I’m very low on his playmaking and I’m wondering if the playoff schemes are impacting/generating his high volume numbers due to his physicality

[LukaTheGOAT]

earlier you mentioned the shooters around giannis earlier helping his numbers.. does this not to some extent apply to utah? conley, ingles, royce, niang.. all fantastic shooters

yes mitchell has had some great playoff performances. as has giannis, no doubt. earlier you mentioned that he performs well against slow footed bigs while struggling against the right teams... but mitchell's premier playoff performance was against the nuggets in the bubble, were they really an optimal team to defend donovan mitchell? i'm not so sure...

also giannis' playmaking is no doubt a massive part of the bucks' offense. he has improved a ton at his ability to hit shooters in the right spots off of drives, i think it's fair to mention his value in that regard

and another key part of offense is getting to the free throw line. giannis excels in that category to an extent that mitchell certainly can't touch

i also don't think the "numbers speak for themselves" argument is very strong either when the earlier rgument seemed to be "well for giannis the numbers *don't* speak for themselves. they're inflated because of context." it feels like giannis is being held to a higher standard here and the same scrutiny isn't being applied to mitchell. mitchell's tunnel vision is a massive problem and certainly makes his scoring numbers look better

Mitchell has a lower offensive floor than Giannis when he isn't hitting his 3s, however,

against the Grizzlies last year. He averaged 28.5 pts per game in 29.9 MPG on 60.9 TS%. Absurd scoring. His clippers series gets even better. Mitchell averaged 34.8 ppg in 37.7 MPG on 59.8 TS%. In 2020 he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and PS Offensive EPM. In 2021, he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and #2 in PS O-EPM. If you believe enough in the 17 game sample size of the 2 PS, then there you have it.

i don't think postseason xRAPM metrics are super meaningful due to the sample size. at that point it'll be heavily based on the box score prior

regular season O-LEBRON and O-EPM favor giannis fwiw

I think O-EPM is pretty quality in the small sample of the PS. Nonetheless more stable things such as BPM ans Backpicks BPM, have Donvan Mitchell at the top of the 20 and 21 PS for offensive production. He had a historical scoring rate those past 2 PS, and while yes Mitchell does have great shooting around hin, Giannis also plays on a team near the top of the league in spacing. The Jazz has handily outpaced the Bucks offense the last 3 PS if my memory serves correct (Jazz are offensively slanted however).

[tsherkin]

People throwing out Amar'e as a comp.

Sure, he had some explosive high efficiency seasons with the Suns while he was getting set up by a two time MVP in Nash.

You understand that 05 Amare was assisted on a lower proportion of his FGs than prime Shaq, right? Not that moving without the ball to get good looks is a sin at all, but like, he was an elite finisher and also an elite mid-range scorer who had both a basic post up game and a strong face-up game. Crediting his success entirely to Nash isn't really sensible.

[Dooley]

But sure, I guess "He mainly gets points from transition and slashing to the rim for dunks/layups" is this weird hill that so many people are still willing to die on.

Would have really thought most of the lazy criticisms of his offense would have dissipated after the last two postseason runs where he's demonstrated the full arsenal (jump-hooks, running floaters, baseline fadeaways, pull-up FT line jumpers). He's no worse than a Top-5 offensive player in the league with the only player I see having a clear and unimpeachable case over him being Jokic (obviously).

He has a full scoring arsenal but that's not really where the bulk of his value as a scorer comes from. I'd personally love it if he leaned on the interior scoring arsenal and did more big-man stuff because I enjoy watching that version of Giannis a lot more, but I have a hard time believing that Giannis would be nearly as valuable on offense, or would have the same efficiency or volume, if he did so. His playmaking ability rises out of the scoring threat he poses, and I don't think that the rest of his scoring game would be super-efficient at high volume, nor would it consistently hold up against good playoff defenses. So ultimately Giannis' value mostly stands or falls based on what you think of his perimeter and transition scoring game.

So, yeah, IMO those criticisms are legitimate. But even with all of that said, I think he's still a borderline-great scorer. Yes, the value of his perimeter game is somewhat dependent on the matchups and talent around him, but there are very, very few players who that's not true of. So having Giannis as a fringe top-5 guy offensively in the league seems very justified to me. He's not Luka, Jokic or Steph. But if we're comparing him to guys like Trae and KD, well, those are guys (at least the 2022 versions) who frankly can have some similar concerns with matchup-dependency and context-dependency and Giannis was clearly better than both of those guys in both the regular season and in the playoffs.

[tsherkin]

But sure, I guess "He mainly gets points from transition and slashing to the rim for dunks/layups" is this weird hill that so many people are still willing to die on.

Would have really thought most of the lazy criticisms of his offense would have dissipated after the last two postseason runs where he's demonstrated the full arsenal (jump-hooks, running floaters, baseline fadeaways, pull-up FT line jumpers). He's no worse than a Top-5 offensive player in the league with the only player I see having a clear and unimpeachable case over him being Jokic (obviously).

I guess TBF, he gets 27.6% of his offense in transition. That is the largest single proportion of his offense, though obviously that's still just over a quarter of his total output. Isolation is next at 17.9%. He's extremely efficient as the roll man. And he does take 63% of his shots inside of 10 feet.

Obviously, Giannis is more than that. He showcases a little of this and that. He's pretty good about using his speed, power and length to get himself in close and get a shot off against most. He's shown a pretty diverse arsenal, aside from 3pt shooting, and his long two was resilient into the playoffs this year as well. He's definitely up there with almost anyone you care to name offensively, even allowing for what flaws he has.

[jalengreen]

Mitchell has a lower offensive floor than Giannis when he isn't hitting his 3s, however,

against the Grizzlies last year. He averaged 28.5 pts per game in 29.9 MPG on 60.9 TS%. Absurd scoring. His clippers series gets even better. Mitchell averaged 34.8 ppg in 37.7 MPG on 59.8 TS%. In 2020 he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and PS Offensive EPM. In 2021, he was #1 in PS O-RAPTOR and #2 in PS O-EPM. If you believe enough in the 17 game sample size of the 2 PS, then there you have it.

i don't think postseason xRAPM metrics are super meaningful due to the sample size. at that point it'll be heavily based on the box score prior

regular season O-LEBRON and O-EPM favor giannis fwiw

I think O-EPM is pretty quality in the small sample of the PS. Nonetheless more stable things such as BPM ans Backpicks BPM, have Donvan Mitchell at the top of the 20 and 21 PS for offensive production. He had a historical scoring rate those past 2 PS, and while yes Mitchell does have great shooting around hin, Giannis also plays on a team near the top of the league in spacing. The Jazz has handily outpaced the Bucks offense the last 3 PS if my memory serves correct (Jazz are offensively slanted however).

i agree that giannis plays on a team with fantastic spacing. i brought up mitchell's spacing because it was brought up as a factor against giannis, which i thought was odd because it's not like mitchell is carrying a team with poor spacing. like you said the jazz are offensively slanted and have had some great offensive postseason performances but falter due to deficiencies elsewhere. so i'm not sure how confident i'd be in saying mitchell is better offensively because of the team results when the team is built to be strong offensively and rely entirely on gobert defensively (while mitchell contributes nothing on that end, but that's another discussion)

i'm also not a huge fan of overvaluing the postseason. mitchell shot 51.6% from 3 in the 2020 postseason and 43.5% from 3 in the 2021 postseason. his career best in the regular season is 38.6% in 2021. given the differences in sample size, i'm more confident saying that regular season mitchell is closer to his true self as a player than the playoff samples where he got hot.

also out of curiosity, where do you find postseason EPM? i wasnt aware that's something that they calculated

[LukaTheGOAT]

i don't think postseason xRAPM metrics are super meaningful due to the sample size. at that point it'll be heavily based on the box score prior

regular season O-LEBRON and O-EPM favor giannis fwiw

I think O-EPM is pretty quality in the small sample of the PS. Nonetheless more stable things such as BPM ans Backpicks BPM, have Donvan Mitchell at the top of the 20 and 21 PS for offensive production. He had a historical scoring rate those past 2 PS, and while yes Mitchell does have great shooting around hin, Giannis also plays on a team near the top of the league in spacing. The Jazz has handily outpaced the Bucks offense the last 3 PS if my memory serves correct (Jazz are offensively slanted however).

i agree that giannis plays on a team with fantastic spacing. i brought up mitchell's spacing because it was brought up as a factor against giannis, which i thought was odd because it's not like mitchell is carrying a team with poor spacing. like you said the jazz are offensively slanted and have had some great offensive postseason performances but falter due to deficiencies elsewhere. so i'm not sure how confident i'd be in saying mitchell is better offensively because of the team results when the team is built to be strong offensively and rely entirely on gobert defensively (while mitchell contributes nothing on that end, but that's another discussion)

i'm also not a huge fan of overvaluing the postseason. mitchell shot 51.6% from 3 in the 2020 postseason and 43.5% from 3 in the 2021 postseason. his career best in the regular season is 38.6% in 2021. given the differences in sample size, i'm more confident saying that regular season mitchell is closer to his true self as a player than the playoff samples where he got hot.

also out of curiosity, where do you find postseason EPM? i wasnt aware that's something that they calculated

Right. I just think the thinking is that even should Mitchell's 3 point shooting dip a bit, he falls from an area of being the best offensive player in the PS per the numbers, to being right around Giannis' level, which makes this a debate. Some of the stuff Mitchell does, cannot be countered, such as his ability to consistently get into the lane.

Also, I got the numbers from Snarr's twitter

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[Texas Chuck]

I mean his results tell us he's elite and he's been elite for years. Once you get past stylistic biases any arguments against this disappear.

[falcolombardi]

I mean his results tell us he's elite and he's been elite for years. Once you get past stylistic biases any arguments against this disappear.

normally i may agree but bucks seemingly perennial playoffs underperformance in offense (although middleton injury this year is a strong extenuating factor) coupled with giannis issues with efficiency in the playoffs are starting to be as concerning as denver teams perenial defensive struggles are for jokic*

(of course i get jokic has not had always a strong defensive team but the trend of them being murdered defensively is starting to stand out as somethingh worth analizing in depth)

and i say this as someone who loves giannis and has rooted for the bucks the past two playoffs runs but the evidence since 2019 is starting to look like there is a issue with giannis/buck offense approach

this doenst make giannis a scrub but it gives me donut about putting him in a offense top 5

[tsherkin]

I mean his results tell us he's elite and he's been elite for years. Once you get past stylistic biases any arguments against this disappear.

That they do. And complexity != efficacy. We saw a lot of that argument in the 00s, and used against Shaq or for Kobe, and it's bunk. Struggles at the foul line and his FG% dropped off noticeably in the playoffs. And even with those drops and what-not, his impact stuff all suggests he was doing some pretty significant lifting as well, which matches the eye test.

Giannis is sick. He has a bunch of things holding him back, which really makes his achievements all that much more remarkable. He's just a wild physical specimen and he's been improving his skills over the years.