2013 LeBron vs 2016 LeBron

[colts18]

The Heat were better with both Wade and LeBron on the court:

Both: +10.1
LeBron on, no Wade: +7.5
Wade on, no LeBron: +1.2
Neither on: -4.7

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612748&Season=2010-11,2011-12,2012-13,2013-14&SeasonType=All&PlayerIds=2548,2544

[falcolombardi]

Jordan's struggles in that series were nowhere near Lebron's struggles plus 3 games vs. 6 games but regardless... That's not the point. My post was simply to show the absurdity of what-if arguments. "If Wade was healthy..." or "If Allen didn't make that shot..." or "If Green doesn't get suspended..." or whatever. You can always spin that line of thinking in either direction. Lebron's teams could have done better or they could have done worse. At the end let's judge them on what they did do. The 2013 Heat and 2013 Lebron individually didn't have the greatest of postseasons.

Going back to the OP, I have a hard time choosing between 2013 and 2016 Lebron. 2013 Lebron was weak offensively at times in the playoffs, almost passive at times but he had much better motor and carried the team for the entire season and postseason. 2016 Lebron was better offensively although as people pointed out his finals apart from Game 5&6 was weak offensively. However he wasn't passive and he pressured the defense more. It may not be evident from the stat sheet but even down 1-3 to the Warriors I don't remember feeling disappointed with his performance that way I was early in the 2013 Finals. However, he did cruise during the regular season in 2016 which is a luxury you don't get on a weaker team and/or in a stronger conference. If I was choosing one of them just for the playoffs it would be 2016 Lebron so I guess that season wins by a smidge. At the end that's a bit more important than regular season consistency.

Regarding the bolded, this was primarily a function of Wade’s injuries and his presence on court hobbling the offense (opponents not respecting his shooting, sagging off of him).

During the regular season: James/Wade paired really well together, +14.4 per 100 possessions on court, 114.4 ORtg, equivalent to about a +8 rORtg, would be the #1 offense in the league by over 3 points per 100 possessions

During the playoffs

2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on court (960 minutes): 109.9
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron and Wade on court (678 minutes): 105.0
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on, Wade off (282 minutes): 121.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron on court 115.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron On, Wade off: 116.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court: 110.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court, Wade off: 118.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron ON court: 110.6
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron on court, Wade off: 121.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court: 106.7
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court, Wade off: 131.3

His individual numbers with Wade off the court those playoffs:

33.8 inflation adjusted PTS/75 on +7.8 rTS%
8.6 REB/75
8.6 AST/75
1.8 STL/75
1.2 BLK/75 (0.9 at the rim)

All while leading a +17.7 offense (would be the best all time)

Yes but Lebron and Wade being bad on the court together was generally the case during Lebron's entire Miami stint. In fact the Heat were also generally better with Wade ON Lebron OFF weren't they? Both Lebron and Wade lost a ton of value when forced into an off-ball role and Ben Taylor in fact cited this as peak Lebron's greatest weakness in the Greatest Peaks series.

And I've seen you post these 2013 Playoff numbers a lot. Sample size in a single postseason is way too small. Super noisy!

that is not true, wade and lebron heat was better than lebron without wade heat by a fair amount

the heat with wade only was a lot worse thsn the heat with lebron only but the combination of both was better than them alone

also you mention small sample noise for 2013 playoffs by lebron without wade but use the close call against spurs to diminish lebron season as his best?

[capfan33]

Also as a quick side note, the Heat were +14.5 with Lebron and Wade on in the 2013 regular season, but just +.7 in the postseason with Lebron and Wade on.

[falcolombardi]

Also as a quick side note, the Heat were +14.5 with Lebron and Wade on in the 2013 regular season, but just +.7 in the postseason with Lebron and Wade on.

the idea that lebron and wade struggled together only was ever true when wade was incredibly diminished with injuries

[Djoker]

Using single postseason ON/OFF data to prove something is a very flawed approach. Sample size in one postseason is way too small. Ben Taylor was analyzing variances for the last 65 years of the NBA and found that data only stabilizes a bit at around 60 games but to have truly reliable numbers that still capture peak performances 150-250 games is optimal so 2 to 3 seasons worth.

Using this line of thinking it's fair to say that 2013 Lebron was probably a bit better offensively than his stats show. In surrounding years like 2012 and 2014 he had much better scoring postseasons.

Read this article: https://backpicks.com/2021/07/06/playoff-plus-minus-data-part-i-the-value-and-the-noise/

Yes but Lebron and Wade being bad on the court together was generally the case during Lebron's entire Miami stint. In fact the Heat were also generally better with Wade ON Lebron OFF weren't they? Both Lebron and Wade lost a ton of value when forced into an off-ball role and Ben Taylor in fact cited this as peak Lebron's greatest weakness in the Greatest Peaks series.

And I've seen you post these 2013 Playoff numbers a lot. Sample size in a single postseason is way too small. Super noisy!

that is not true, wade and lebron heat was better than lebron without wade heat by a fair amount

the heat with wade only was a lot worse thsn the heat with lebron only but the combination of both was better than them alone

also you mention small sample noise for 2013 playoffs by lebron without wade but use the close call against spurs to diminish lebron season as his best?

I meant bad in a relative sense. Lebron and Wade weren't exactly a synergistic duo.

And again, for the 3rd time, I'm not diminishing Lebron. In fact I hate what-ifs. Lebron did win a title and should get (considerable) credit for his Game 7 performance in 2013. However to pretend he didn't struggle offensively in that series is kind of ridiculous.

[homecourtloss]

Jordan's struggles in that series were nowhere near Lebron's struggles plus 3 games vs. 6 games but regardless... That's not the point. My post was simply to show the absurdity of what-if arguments. "If Wade was healthy..." or "If Allen didn't make that shot..." or "If Green doesn't get suspended..." or whatever. You can always spin that line of thinking in either direction. Lebron's teams could have done better or they could have done worse. At the end let's judge them on what they did do. The 2013 Heat and 2013 Lebron individually didn't have the greatest of postseasons.

Going back to the OP, I have a hard time choosing between 2013 and 2016 Lebron. 2013 Lebron was weak offensively at times in the playoffs, almost passive at times but he had much better motor and carried the team for the entire season and postseason. 2016 Lebron was better offensively although as people pointed out his finals apart from Game 5&6 was weak offensively. However he wasn't passive and he pressured the defense more. It may not be evident from the stat sheet but even down 1-3 to the Warriors I don't remember feeling disappointed with his performance that way I was early in the 2013 Finals. However, he did cruise during the regular season in 2016 which is a luxury you don't get on a weaker team and/or in a stronger conference. If I was choosing one of them just for the playoffs it would be 2016 Lebron so I guess that season wins by a smidge. At the end that's a bit more important than regular season consistency.

Regarding the bolded, this was primarily a function of Wade’s injuries and his presence on court hobbling the offense (opponents not respecting his shooting, sagging off of him).

During the regular season: James/Wade paired really well together, +14.4 per 100 possessions on court, 114.4 ORtg, equivalent to about a +8 rORtg, would be the #1 offense in the league by over 3 points per 100 possessions

During the playoffs

2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on court (960 minutes): 109.9
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron and Wade on court (678 minutes): 105.0
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on, Wade off (282 minutes): 121.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron on court 115.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron On, Wade off: 116.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court: 110.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court, Wade off: 118.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron ON court: 110.6
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron on court, Wade off: 121.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court: 106.7
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court, Wade off: 131.3

His individual numbers with Wade off the court those playoffs:

33.8 inflation adjusted PTS/75 on +7.8 rTS%
8.6 REB/75
8.6 AST/75
1.8 STL/75
1.2 BLK/75 (0.9 at the rim)

All while leading a +17.7 offense (would be the best all time)

Yes but Lebron and Wade being bad on the court together was generally the case during Lebron's entire Miami stint.

In fact the Heat were also generally better with Wade ON Lebron OFF weren't they?

Both Lebron and Wade lost a ton of value when forced into an off-ball role and Ben Taylor in fact cited this as peak Lebron's greatest weakness in the Greatest Peaks series.

And I've seen you post these 2013 Playoff numbers a lot. Sample size in a single postseason is way too small. Super noisy!

First of all, LeBron and Wade weren’t “generally bad on court together.” That’s a ridiculous statement to make. Other than the 2011 playoffs, and then the Wade injury in late 2013, Wade and James were dominant on court.

2011 Regular season: +12.1 per 100 possessions
2011 Post season: +2.1 (this isn’t great but multiple factors contributed to this)

2012 Regular season: +13.6
2012 Post season: +14.0

2013 Regular season: +14.4
2013 Post season: +.5

Some regular season pairings

Jordan+Pippen, 1997: +13.3 per 100 possessions
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +9.9
Malone + Stockton, 1997: +13.4
Malone + Stockton, 1998: +13.1
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +10.2
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +9.1
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +10.5
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +8.4
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +11.2
LBJ + Wade, 2011: +12.1
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.6
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +14.4
LBJ + Love, 2015: +11.7
LBJ + Kyrie, 2015: +11.1
LBJ + Love, 2016: +12.1
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +8.2
KD+Westbrook, 2013: +10.8
KD+Westbrook, 2014: +7.6
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +12.5
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +10.2
LBJ + Love, 2017: +10.1

Some playoff pairings for comparison

Jordan + Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Malone + Stockton, 1997: +2.1 in 615 minutes
Malone + Stockton, 1998: -.5 in 550 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
KD+Westbrook, 2016: +8.7 in 589 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)


Secondly, no, the Heat weren’t better with Wade ON and LeBron off other than in the 2011 playoffs. Wade didn’t have the same success with James off that James had with Wade off. All the other years, Heat were much, much better with Lebron and Wade on or just Lebron on and no Wade.

[ShotCreator]

2013 for me. His motor was better as so was his defense, outside shooting, and more athletically inclined

I would say his motor and defense was way worse in 2013.

He pushing 275 pounds trying to guard the perimeter. He looked ridiculous.

Couldn’t fight through screens are contain quickness with his foot speed.


16 LeBron was slimmed down. Had insane endurance. Literally scaled everything up deeper in the playoffs and deeper in series. Had his brakes on close outs and footspeed on the perimeter.

Didn’t have his jumper really. Didn’t have his touch on layups like in Miami.

But the defense is gap is real, and it’s big IMO.

Offense gap is big too in favor of 2013. 2013 LeBron should’ve been the best LeBron but it just wasn’t.

LeBron seasons at his more natural body weight seem automatically better overall. Even in old age.

[Djoker]

Regarding the bolded, this was primarily a function of Wade’s injuries and his presence on court hobbling the offense (opponents not respecting his shooting, sagging off of him).

During the regular season: James/Wade paired really well together, +14.4 per 100 possessions on court, 114.4 ORtg, equivalent to about a +8 rORtg, would be the #1 offense in the league by over 3 points per 100 possessions

During the playoffs

2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on court (960 minutes): 109.9
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron and Wade on court (678 minutes): 105.0
2013 Heat ORtg with LeBron on, Wade off (282 minutes): 121.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron on court 115.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bucks with LeBron On, Wade off: 116.8

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court: 110.1
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Bulls with LeBron on court, Wade off: 118.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron ON court: 110.6
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Pacers with LeBron on court, Wade off: 121.2

2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court: 106.7
2013 Heat ORtg vs. Spurs with LeBron on court, Wade off: 131.3

His individual numbers with Wade off the court those playoffs:

33.8 inflation adjusted PTS/75 on +7.8 rTS%
8.6 REB/75
8.6 AST/75
1.8 STL/75
1.2 BLK/75 (0.9 at the rim)

All while leading a +17.7 offense (would be the best all time)

Yes but Lebron and Wade being bad on the court together was generally the case during Lebron's entire Miami stint.

In fact the Heat were also generally better with Wade ON Lebron OFF weren't they?

Both Lebron and Wade lost a ton of value when forced into an off-ball role and Ben Taylor in fact cited this as peak Lebron's greatest weakness in the Greatest Peaks series.

And I've seen you post these 2013 Playoff numbers a lot. Sample size in a single postseason is way too small. Super noisy!

First of all, LeBron and Wade weren’t “generally bad on court together.” That’s a ridiculous statement to make. Other than the 2011 playoffs, and then the Wade injury in late 2013, Wade and James were dominant on court.

2011 Regular season: +12.1 per 100 possessions
2011 Post season: +2.1 (this isn’t great but multiple factors contributed to this)

2012 Regular season: +13.6
2012 Post season: +14.0

2013 Regular season: +14.4
2013 Post season: +.5

Some regular season pairings

Jordan+Pippen, 1997: +13.3 per 100 possessions
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +9.9
Malone + Stockton, 1997: +13.4
Malone + Stockton, 1998: +13.1
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +10.2
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +9.1
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +10.5
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +8.4
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +11.2
LBJ + Wade, 2011: +12.1
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.6
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +14.4
LBJ + Love, 2015: +11.7
LBJ + Kyrie, 2015: +11.1
LBJ + Love, 2016: +12.1
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +8.2
KD+Westbrook, 2013: +10.8
KD+Westbrook, 2014: +7.6
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +12.5
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +10.2
LBJ + Love, 2017: +10.1

Some playoff pairings for comparison

Jordan + Pippen, 1997: +11.5 in 656 minutes (BKREF numbers for before 2008j
Jordan + Pippen, 1998: +8.1 in 724 minutes
Malone + Stockton, 1997: +2.1 in 615 minutes
Malone + Stockton, 1998: -.5 in 550 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2000: +4.1 in 794 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2001: +14.9 in 620 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2002: +8.1 in 697 minutes
Shaq + Kobe, 2003: +3.1 in 449 minutes
Kobe + Gasol, 2009: +10.2 in 831 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2012: +13.5 in 799 minutes
LBJ + Wade, 2013: +.5 in 678 minutes
KD + Westbrook, 2014: +2.9 in 696 minutes
KD+Westbrook, 2016: +8.7 in 589 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2015: +15.9 in 99 minutes
LBJ + Tristan T., 2016: +16.9 in 547 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2016: +14.9 in 548 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2016: +12.5 in 672 minutes
KD+ Westbrook, 2016: +10.1 in 592 minutes
LBJ + Kyrie, 2017: +12.7 in 593 minutes
LBJ + Love, 2017: +14.3 in 541 minutes (+22.3 before the finals)


Secondly, no, the Heat weren’t better with Wade ON and LeBron off other than in the 2011 playoffs. Wade didn’t have the same success with James off that James had with Wade off. All the other years, Heat were much, much better with Lebron and Wade on or just Lebron on and no Wade.

I didn't mean they were a bad duo in an absolute sense. I meant that they were underwhelming relative to lineups with Lebron ON Wade OFF which shows they weren't a great fit. And I think for the sake of completeness when you post these numbers you should also post Wade ON Lebron OFF numbers and Lebron OFF Wade OFF numbers so we have the full picture. And since the argument was that Wade's injury in 2013 hurt the Heat then having the data for other postseason runs in 2011, 2012 and 2014 seems relevant. Sample sizes are so tiny in a single playoff run though that I'd still be skeptical but it's a start.

[PistolPeteJR]

Using single postseason ON/OFF data to prove something is a very flawed approach. Sample size in one postseason is way too small. Ben Taylor was analyzing variances for the last 65 years of the NBA and found that data only stabilizes a bit at around 60 games but to have truly reliable numbers that still capture peak performances 150-250 games is optimal so 2 to 3 seasons worth.

Using this line of thinking it's fair to say that 2013 Lebron was probably a bit better offensively than his stats show. In surrounding years like 2012 and 2014 he had much better scoring postseasons.

Read this article: https://backpicks.com/2021/07/06/playoff-plus-minus-data-part-i-the-value-and-the-noise/

Yes but Lebron and Wade being bad on the court together was generally the case during Lebron's entire Miami stint. In fact the Heat were also generally better with Wade ON Lebron OFF weren't they? Both Lebron and Wade lost a ton of value when forced into an off-ball role and Ben Taylor in fact cited this as peak Lebron's greatest weakness in the Greatest Peaks series.

And I've seen you post these 2013 Playoff numbers a lot. Sample size in a single postseason is way too small. Super noisy!

that is not true, wade and lebron heat was better than lebron without wade heat by a fair amount

the heat with wade only was a lot worse thsn the heat with lebron only but the combination of both was better than them alone

also you mention small sample noise for 2013 playoffs by lebron without wade but use the close call against spurs to diminish lebron season as his best?

I meant bad in a relative sense. Lebron and Wade weren't exactly a synergistic duo.

And again, for the 3rd time, I'm not diminishing Lebron. In fact I hate what-ifs. Lebron did win a title and should get (considerable) credit for his Game 7 performance in 2013. However to pretend he didn't struggle offensively in that series is kind of ridiculous.

He did struggle, but a very significant reason for the struggle was how the Spurs played him, and a big reason for why they played him the way they did was because Wade, their second best player, was struggling mightily with injuries and also, as you say, because Wade's game did not complement James as well as say, Kyrie's. It's not all due to LeBron not imposing his will, for lack of a better phrase.