RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #7 - 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon

[ty 4191]

I would bet 2022 Jokic makes the Top 25.

The problem is, why isn't his season considered (significantly) higher than ~25th all time?

It's because of his teammates' depth and their talent, that's why.

[Proxy]

That was quite refreshing. Thank you!!

The overarching point is that it is very unlikely anyone who didn't get a ring who make the finals (aside from Kareem) will be in the top 10 or top 15.

That's Winning Bias at work.

Championships and Finals are predicated on ownership, management, coaches, and great teammates. Jokic, arguably, had one of the top 5 or top 10 seasons in NBA history this year, in (by far) the deepest and strongest NBA in history.

But, his season will probably not make the top 25 here. He hasn't even been mentioned yet by anyone but me, and won't be, for weeks or months.

Really, nobody cares.

He might still make top 25 and I expect him to seeing that Giannis is getting votes right now but I responded to you and expressed my concerns with his defense in a playoff setting a few threads ago, and unless I missed it I did not get a convincing argument to value it much more so until then I probably won't place him on my ballot for a few threads either(I apologize if I missed it i've been having trouble balancing stuff lately). Top 10 regular season peak though sure I could maybe buy that yeah but it's been the third season in a row where he hasn't looked like that type of player in the playoffs.

EDIT: I reposted this by accident

[Dutchball97]

The problem is, why isn't his season considered (significantly) higher than ~25th all time?

It's because of his teammates' depth and their talent, that's why.

As a counterpoint though it is often easier for star players to put up bigger numbers on bad teams because they have to do pretty much everything themselves. Giving Jokic better teammates would undoubtedly raise his championship odds but it'd likely also reduce his off the charts boxscore stats.

I also wouldn't be so certain he'll only get in around 25. He could just as well be 15th or so.

[falcolombardi]

Kareem got voted 4th without a ring in chosen season. I will vote for 1993 Hakeem who didn't win a ring either. I fail to see your point...

That was quite refreshing. Thank you!!

The overarching point is that it is very unlikely anyone who didn't get a ring who make the finals (aside from Kareem) will be in the top 10 or top 15.

That's Winning Bias at work.

Championships and Finals are predicated on ownership, management, coaches, and great teammates. Jokic, arguably, had one of the top 5 or top 10 seasons in NBA history this year, in (by far) the deepest and strongest NBA in history.

But, his season will probably not make the top 25 here. He hasn't even been mentioned yet by anyone but me, and won't be, for weeks or months.

Really, nobody cares.

2009 lebron almost got second tho,barely losing out to another lebron year but comfortably beating out every othwr non jordan player ring winning peak

So is not completely true only ring winning seasons are being considered

I think 14 or 16 durant could be picked for him too, or 17 kawhi depending on how much his freak injury is accoubted for

[capfan33]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

[ty 4191]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

Jokic never plays garbage minutes to get the cheap and easy stats players of all past eras got.

How many guys have put up 27.1/13.8/7.8 on +10 rTS in NBA history, in only 33.5 mpg? Nobody.

Who was better numbers overall than that offensively, without playing garbage minutes?

His awful team ran into a juggernaut in the GSW. It isn't his fault.

[f4p]

for the people picking steph in 2017, why would he be up here if he wasn't even better than kawhi in 2017? kawhi played nearly a full season for once with 74 games, had very good offensive numbers and was extremely good on defense (27.6 PER, 0.264 WS48), and then took all of that to another level in the playoffs. 31.5 PER and 0.314 WS48 on 67.2 TS% in the playoffs, numbers like are rarely seen in nba history (have they been seen?). and we actually got to see him play steph's team and play a nearly perfect game while trouncing the most talented roster of all time. normally i would say we have to consider injuries, but that should clearly not be the case when a goon on the other team just takes you out on a dirty play.

[falcolombardi]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

Jokic never plays garbage minutes to get the cheap and easy stats players of all past eras got.

How many guys have put up 27.1/13.8/7.8 on +10 rTS in NBA history, in only 33.5 mpg? Nobody.

Who was better numbers overall than that offensively, without playing garbage minutes?

His awful team ran into a juggernaut in the GSW. It isn't his fault.

Him playing less minutes is not somethingh to praise

This is not a case of a player whose team is blowing out every rival so he routinely sits out full 4th quarters

[f4p]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

[capfan33]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively is good in the playoffs. When it comes to comparing the best of the best, I think the 1st priority generally is for them to not be exploitable in an obvious way more than anything else. And unfortunately in Jokic's case, being exploitable at the most important defensive position on the court is pretty bad in a way that isn't the case with say Nash even though Nash may be worse defensively relative to his position.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

[f4p]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively

is that still as true in the positionless era? we see someone like gobert who should theoretically have insane defensive impact (and does in the regular season) get neutralized just by finding a 5th scrub who knows how to shoot 3's and putting them on the court. jokic doesn't seem particular bad at rim protection (i want to say his FG% against at the rim is pretty good but don't quote me on that), just at the specifics of switching on the perimeter, which practically every tall person struggles with and which isn't necessarily position-specific. the defense will find whoever is worst and hunt them. is a center who is bad at switching that much worse than a SF who is bad? maybe the answer is yes but i have to think center defensive impact has been decreased in the 3 point era. i don't look at people out of their own era, but man jokic in the 90's/00's, or really up to 2014, wouldn't even have his defense talked about for the most part.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

and if center defense really is still as important as always, then presumably center offense is still hard to come by. those other guys all provide offense from positions where offense is expected. exploitable or not, there's only so much jokic can do when averaging 31/12/6 on 64 TS% while having to hope aaron gordon can make 20% of his open 3's.

[falcolombardi]

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively

is that still as true in the positionless era? we see someone like gobert who should theoretically have insane defensive impact (and does in the regular season) get neutralized just by finding a 5th scrub who knows how to shoot 3's and putting them on the court. jokic doesn't seem particular bad at rim protection (i want to say his FG% against at the rim is pretty good but don't quote me on that), just at the specifics of switching on the perimeter, which practically every tall person struggles with and which isn't necessarily position-specific. the defense will find whoever is worst and hunt them. is a center who is bad at switching that much worse than a SF who is bad? maybe the answer is yes but i have to think center defensive impact has been decreased in the 3 point era. i don't look at people out of their own era, but man jokic in the 90's/00's, or really up to 2014, wouldn't even have his defense talked about for the most part.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

and if center defense really is still as important as always, then presumably center offense is still hard to come by. those other guys all provide offense from positions where offense is expected. exploitable or not, there's only so much jokic can do when averaging 31/12/6 on 64 TS% while having to hope aaron gordon can make 20% of his open 3's.

Jokic field goal percentage in shots defended at the rim was pretty damn bad if i remember correctly

I think the issue for why good offense from a center is not equally good as bad defense from a center is one of replaceability

You can get your scoring and creation from wings, guards or bigs. But you (usually) need to get your rim protection from your center

A good defensive center doesnt gusrantee a good defense anymore, but a bad defensive center makes a good defense really tought to build

A center cannot be "hid" on defense the way a guard can be put on the opposite team weakest defender

[f4p]

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively

is that still as true in the positionless era? we see someone like gobert who should theoretically have insane defensive impact (and does in the regular season) get neutralized just by finding a 5th scrub who knows how to shoot 3's and putting them on the court. jokic doesn't seem particular bad at rim protection (i want to say his FG% against at the rim is pretty good but don't quote me on that), just at the specifics of switching on the perimeter, which practically every tall person struggles with and which isn't necessarily position-specific. the defense will find whoever is worst and hunt them. is a center who is bad at switching that much worse than a SF who is bad? maybe the answer is yes but i have to think center defensive impact has been decreased in the 3 point era. i don't look at people out of their own era, but man jokic in the 90's/00's, or really up to 2014, wouldn't even have his defense talked about for the most part.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

and if center defense really is still as important as always, then presumably center offense is still hard to come by. those other guys all provide offense from positions where offense is expected. exploitable or not, there's only so much jokic can do when averaging 31/12/6 on 64 TS% while having to hope aaron gordon can make 20% of his open 3's.

Jokic field goal percentage in shots defended at the rim was pretty damn bad if i remember correctly

I think the issue for why good offense from a center is not equally good as bad defense from a center is one of replaceability

You can get your scoring and creation from wings, guards or bigs. But you (usually) need to get your rim protection from your center

A good defensive center doesnt gusrantee a good defense anymore, but a bad defensive center makes a good defense really tought to build

A center cannot be "hid" on defense the way a guard can be put on the opposite team weakest defender

Maybe I'm thinking of articles like this

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/12/nba-nikola-jokic-defense-stats-nuggets-improvement

The nuggets tended to be much better on D when he was on the court. The warriors exploiting him is problematic but they also have amazing weapons to do so and won the title and won the series without their best player starting most of the games. Did he have to face arguably his worst matchup, while doing absolutely everything on offense against an elite defender?

[ty 4191]

is that still as true in the positionless era? we see someone like gobert who should theoretically have insane defensive impact (and does in the regular season) get neutralized just by finding a 5th scrub who knows how to shoot 3's and putting them on the court. jokic doesn't seem particular bad at rim protection (i want to say his FG% against at the rim is pretty good but don't quote me on that), just at the specifics of switching on the perimeter, which practically every tall person struggles with and which isn't necessarily position-specific. the defense will find whoever is worst and hunt them. is a center who is bad at switching that much worse than a SF who is bad? maybe the answer is yes but i have to think center defensive impact has been decreased in the 3 point era. i don't look at people out of their own era, but man jokic in the 90's/00's, or really up to 2014, wouldn't even have his defense talked about for the most part.



and if center defense really is still as important as always, then presumably center offense is still hard to come by. those other guys all provide offense from positions where offense is expected. exploitable or not, there's only so much jokic can do when averaging 31/12/6 on 64 TS% while having to hope aaron gordon can make 20% of his open 3's.

Jokic field goal percentage in shots defended at the rim was pretty damn bad if i remember correctly

I think the issue for why good offense from a center is not equally good as bad defense from a center is one of replaceability

You can get your scoring and creation from wings, guards or bigs. But you (usually) need to get your rim protection from your center

A good defensive center doesnt gusrantee a good defense anymore, but a bad defensive center makes a good defense really tought to build

A center cannot be "hid" on defense the way a guard can be put on the opposite team weakest defender

Maybe I'm thinking of articles like this

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2021/12/nba-nikola-jokic-defense-stats-nuggets-improvement

The nuggets tended to be much better on D when he was on the court. The warriors exploiting him is problematic but they also have amazing weapons to do so and won the title and won the series without their best player starting most of the games. Did he have to face arguably his worst matchup, while doing absolutely everything on offense against an elite defender?

To the emboldened part: definitely!!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nikola-jokic-bolstered-his-mvp-case-with-his-defense/

Jokic became an elite defender this year.

[Max123]

I think Jokic could make my top-15 but as I said, he has notable limitations on defense in the playoffs that offset his incredible offense. And moreover, there are plenty of guys arguable against him on offense alone that don't have his defensive issues.

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively is good in the playoffs. When it comes to comparing the best of the best, I think the 1st priority generally is for them to not be exploitable in an obvious way more than anything else. And unfortunately in Jokic's case, being exploitable at the most important defensive position on the court is pretty bad in a way that isn't the case with say Nash even though Nash may be worse defensively relative to his position.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

Why do you think it is more damaging at the center to be bad defensively than great offensively? Why is the first priority not to be exploitable in an obvious way even if you were to bring possibly more than any other player on the other end?

[falcolombardi]

like who though? if his defense is a problem because he plays center, then presumably his offense is incredible because it's coming from a center. how many centers with such a weak roster would get the nuggets to 6th on offense this season? i would guess peak hakeem and duncan would be feel really good to get that roster to league average.

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively is good in the playoffs. When it comes to comparing the best of the best, I think the 1st priority generally is for them to not be exploitable in an obvious way more than anything else. And unfortunately in Jokic's case, being exploitable at the most important defensive position on the court is pretty bad in a way that isn't the case with say Nash even though Nash may be worse defensively relative to his position.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

Why do you think it is more damaging at the center to be bad defensively than great offensively? Why is the first priority not to be exploitable in an obvious way even if you were to bring possibly more than any other player on the other end?

Is not that one is more or less important, is that a defensive hole at the center position is harder to "hide" than a defensive hole at the guard or wing positions

Ftr, i am not saying that jokic is a bad defender, but explaining why a bad defensive center is a bigger weakness than a bad defensive guard

[capfan33]

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively is good in the playoffs. When it comes to comparing the best of the best, I think the 1st priority generally is for them to not be exploitable in an obvious way more than anything else. And unfortunately in Jokic's case, being exploitable at the most important defensive position on the court is pretty bad in a way that isn't the case with say Nash even though Nash may be worse defensively relative to his position.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

Why do you think it is more damaging at the center to be bad defensively than great offensively? Why is the first priority not to be exploitable in an obvious way even if you were to bring possibly more than any other player on the other end?

Is not that one is more or less important, is that a defensive hole at the center position is harder to "hide" than a defensive hole at the guard or wing positions

Ftr, i am not saying that jokic is a bad defender, but explaining why a bad defensive center is a bigger weakness than a bad defensive guard

Pretty much this, and moreover I'm using this idea to address the specific point of why Jokic hasn't received consideration yet. As I said, he's an incredible player but I think a top-10 peak ever is a little bit of a hard sell to me right now. Within the realm of possibility, sure, but realistically I think he starts getting in the conversation around 12-15.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I don't think this is a 1-to-1 tradeoff. Being bad defensively at center is much more damaging than being great offensively

is that still as true in the positionless era? we see someone like gobert who should theoretically have insane defensive impact (and does in the regular season) get neutralized just by finding a 5th scrub who knows how to shoot 3's and putting them on the court. jokic doesn't seem particular bad at rim protection (i want to say his FG% against at the rim is pretty good but don't quote me on that), just at the specifics of switching on the perimeter, which practically every tall person struggles with and which isn't necessarily position-specific. the defense will find whoever is worst and hunt them. is a center who is bad at switching that much worse than a SF who is bad? maybe the answer is yes but i have to think center defensive impact has been decreased in the 3 point era. i don't look at people out of their own era, but man jokic in the 90's/00's, or really up to 2014, wouldn't even have his defense talked about for the most part.

Moreover, if you just look at the offensive value Jokic is providing, I think he's comparable but not clearly better than Bird, Magic, Nash, West, Oscar, Paul, and probably some other guys. But defensively, he's much more problematic in the playoffs than say Bird, West, Oscar or Paul. As I said, he still may end up top-15 for me but I'm not sure yet. And to be clear, Jokic is one of my favorite players today, both on and off the court but I'm trying to be as objective as possible.

and if center defense really is still as important as always, then presumably center offense is still hard to come by. those other guys all provide offense from positions where offense is expected. exploitable or not, there's only so much jokic can do when averaging 31/12/6 on 64 TS% while having to hope aaron gordon can make 20% of his open 3's.

Jokic field goal percentage in shots defended at the rim was pretty damn bad if i remember correctly

I think the issue for why good offense from a center is not equally good as bad defense from a center is one of replaceability

You can get your scoring and creation from wings, guards or bigs. But you (usually) need to get your rim protection from your center

A good defensive center doesnt gusrantee a good defense anymore, but a bad defensive center makes a good defense really tought to build

A center cannot be "hid" on defense the way a guard can be put on the opposite team weakest defender

Adding on to this, I think that how jokic will do in the future defensively in the playoffs is important

It’s fair to say he improved defensively in the RS this year, it remains to be seen if that will continue to carry over in the playoffs

On court vs off court

2019
Vs spurs
111.5 off rtg 107.9 def rtg. 263 minutes
112.3 off rtg 114.4 def rtg. 78 minutes

Vs trailblazers
117.4 off rtg 107.1 def rtg. 295 minutes
90.7 off rtg 118.8 def rtg. 61 minutes


2020
Vs Utah
120.4 off rtg 125.5 def rtg. 263 minutes
102 off rtg 99.4 def rtg. 78 minutes

Vs Clippers
112 off rtg 108.9 def rtg. 264 minutes
91.3 off rtg 100.6 def rtg. 72 minutes

Vs Lakers
109.8 off rtg 117.7 def rtg. 167 minutes
116.4 off rtg 115.2 def rtg. 73 minutes

2021
Vs Portland
121.6 off rtg. 124.5 def rtg. 211 minutes
121.1 off rtg. 110.5 def rtg. 87 minutes

Vs suns
103.2 off rtg. 121.8 def rtg. 134 minutes
112.3 off rtg. 119.8 def rtg. 58 minutes

2022
Vs Warriors
110.0 off rtg. 122.5 def rtg. 171 minutes
120.6 off rtg. 111.1 def rtg. 69 minutes

Like I think in the future if he has a positive defensive impact in the playoffs, but especially since the bubble, where people started attacking him on D more, the defense has been all time bad in 5/6 of the last series he’s played in, he’s been a negative in defense in each series, and a substantial net negative overall in 5/6 series, taking place over a span of 34 games


At the end of the day regular season impact and playoff impact are two different things, more so defensively than offensively, people that assume that playoffs are simply a smaller sample with shorter rotations don’t understand playoff basketball. Curry for example is an arguably an elite impact regular season defender in a low activity role whereas in the playoffs he’s more so a neutral and probably a negative in certain matchups for example

A deep playoff run will allow us to evaluate whether or not Jokic’s playoff defense in the past few years being essentially a huge negative from an impact/results based perspective, both in terms of on-off impact and in terms of just how the team performs with him is a noise related issue or if it’s a genuine one

Rating jokic depends on which end of the spectrum you fall in

If you believe that it was only noise and a bad matchup, then sure you can rate jokic really highly, you c an say he was a genuinely great defender in the regular season meaning he must be great in the playoffs.

That’s not an unreasonable take, but we don’t really have any evidence for it. The main argument would be his improvement in general, but obviously that didn’t pan out defensively in the playoffs this year, and a similar RS drop as the past few years still would put his playoff defense as a substantial negative, and at the end of the day if we have a decent amount of data that could suggest his playoff defense is bottom of the league tier, regular season improvements are hardly a definitive argument. The issue isn’t necessarily just the on off numbers but mainly that they’ve just been so bad defensively with him on the court so consistently in the playoffs the past few years, and it brings doubt like Doc said into how a playoff defense can work with him on the team. Otoh, he did show actual improvement for sure.

On the other end of the spectrum, you can say he’s unplayable on defense in the playoffs, teams attack him to the point that he’s a league level worst defender which offsets much of his offensive impact

If you think jokic is an great elite defender regardless, then being high on him is reasonable. Otoh, if you think he’s a league worst defender then having him really low, is also reasonable.

In my personal opinion, I think come playoff time it’ll be matchup dependant, but most teams are gonna have some elite guards that can at least kind of expose him defensively, but that’s not all teams of course. I think how you do when a team attacks you is far more important than otherwise, for example if Curry had the defensive impact he had in g4 where they attacked him relentlessly in every game (they stopped afterwards and when they did go back to it Curry was pretty good at sending them to help or holding his own imo) then he arguably isn’t more impactful than non game 6 Tatum or Butler

Overall, him showing he can still be an elite defender right now in the playoffs can push him to be a much higher tier, but the question marks as of right now still exist. The main thing is this isn’t the difference between if he’s an great defender or a good one, it’s the difference between him being a great defender and a horrendous one. If he’s defensive is as bad as the data shows in the playoffs I don’t really have him even in the next batch of guys, for me (hypothetically) if he plays like a top 10 guy impact wise in the RS and a top 25 guy in the playoffs then I’m putting him as a top 25 guy because the RS doesn’t matter lol

That would be an extreme of course

But I guess jokic right now to me is similar to giannis in 2019 or 2020

Giannis’s impact in the RS those years was an all time great of course, giannis RS impact is going to be limited in an all time sense (but not an impractical one) by the fact that Bud really refuses to play him a lot of minutes. Either way Giannis brought probably a 40-45 win team to a 10SRS 60-65 win team only playing 30 minutes a game

In the playoffs he struggled because of facing teams that could counter him, and poor coaching.

To make it clear though, 2020 Giannis’s RS especially, we’re talking about a high effeciency 30-13-5 guy in great effeciency in a shade over 30 minutes offensively with DPOY+ defense

Metrics put him at absurd impact, luck adjusted RAPM basically has it as one of the best season on record relative to peers (standard dev and stuff, I couldn’t go through each but I know 2010 bron is one of the best on record and it’s a good deal better than that relative to peers, might be the best in the dataset in that regard , it goes from 2010-2022) while LEBRON which is known to overrate anchor bigs a bit (which giannis isn’t) based off the box score component has it as the second best regular season from 2010-2022, behind only 2010 bron. Most of those basically put it defensively as the best on record relative to peers as well

Now 2021 and 2022 giannis weren’t quite as good in the RS, defensively especially, and they’re actually far more plain in impact metrics and stuff like that (2019 giannis was still first place in most of these by a good amount iirc).

Does anyone have 2019 or 2020 giannis above 2021 or 2022 giannis? Hell no, and that’s mostly for playoffs, which essentially is that they played 4 out 1 in instead of 5 out (4 out in 2021 and 2022 I mean) which led to more open gaps and driving lanes and made it harder for teams to load up, it wasn’t as much giannis as a strategy change.

Why am I bringing this up?

To me, I think that arguing 2021 jokic should be this high is similar to arguing 2020 giannis being this high, the main difference being that giannis’s issue was something on the offensive end and jokic’s was in the defensive end.

The issue is essentially the same. The only reason 2020 giannis wasn’t in people’s top 10 lists (and he realistically wouldn’t have been too 20 after the season, most people had 2020 AD over 2020 Giannis in POY voting and most wouldn’t rate him at the top 20 I don’t think) is because he ran into issues offensively in the playoffs in a bad matchup. I don’t think that giannis offensive concerns were from a results based standpoint worse than Jokic’s defensive concerns either.

Now with giannis the changes were pretty simple, run a 4 out maybe more off ball possessions etc etc. but I think there was no point where you could be like “giannis is a bad offensive player” it was more “giannis as an offensive engine in this system isn’t working against this team”.

Now the thing about offense vs defense is that an offense can dictate a defense much more than the other way around in regards to weaknesses.

The easy fix for jokic isn’t quite as apparent, there come issues inherent with hiding even guards defensively, which work out in the regular season with guys like Curry (and Paul?), but not as much in the playoffs, whereas it’s even more so apparent with bigs. They can’t really say “we don’t consent to you attacking him” and doing things like preswitching creates it’s own issues and can be exploited heavily.

We’ve seen high impact plodding bigs have their impact lowered in certain matchups, an obvious example being Gobert.

The idea Gobert is a bad defender in the playoffs is dumb, but he does go from an all time great maybe tpp 10+ defender ever to like arguably a pretty solid one in a bad matchup, and he doesn’t even have issues on things like switches compared to most bigs, he’s actually suprisingly good on the perimeter and uses his height and length well while not being a draymond out there

Overall, when it comes to jokic is a playoff thing. It’s a bit unfair for sure because this really wouldn’t apply at all pre 2016, and some guys that were great back then would face similar struggles today, but yeah.

My personal belief is that jokic probably is more of a slight-moderate negative as a whole in the playoffs because of this, maybe a neutral, that’s gonna be a good positive in some matchups, but he’s not as effective on that end as in the RS. I’m pretty sure next playoff run they’ll be fine defensively with him on the court, and even though I’m not sure if I have him in my top 5-15 peaks because I think he has to actually to that before I can put him there, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did at all. I like bball index defensive data in general, although I don’t think it’s perfect and I disagree with some stuff, but it’s high on him on all screen coverages whereas I thought he was only good in drop

Honestly I could even see him being a strong positive with his IQ making up for his physical deficiencies

Otoh, if he continues to have this bad of a defensive impact then it is a pretty big issue. I think there’s more an issue with struggling on defense like this vs struggling on offense like this, in the sense that most great offensive players only struggle in the role they’re deployed in which is decided by the offense, whereas if there are teams jokic legit just can’t guard then he can’t really tell them not to attack him in certain ways. As it stands he’s had a negative net rtg in 5/6 of his last series both in terms of on-off the floor and in terms of his team losing with him on the court, and in 4 of those series they actually won the non-jokic minutes. If his defense is genuinely so exploitable that, that continues, that’s gonna drop him further than hardens playoff struggles drop him for me.

Spoiler:

Realistically he’s gonna play us, we’re not gonna have Kyrie, and he’s gonna absolutely murder us since jokic would probably be great defensively against us by now without current lineup lmao

But at the end of the day it’s a wait and see kind of thing, jokic with good defense is pretty easily a top ten peak for me I’d have to think, off the top of my head I’d def have it over magic and bird I’d assume, and he has a very strong argument as the best offensive big man ever if he continues his RS dominance in the playoffs, which he has been able to do so far really well. Like giannis I’d want to see it actually pan out before putting him this high, I’m not against ranking 2020 giannis after 2020 outside of the top 20 so jokic being pretty far out for me is pretty reasonable, I’m not sure where I’d put him but under the best case scenario that his defense holds in the playoffs you could argue top 5 probably, under the worst case where he’s one of the worst playoff defenders in the league he’s probably out of the top 30

[TheGOATRises007]

Been so busy with stuff that I've not been able to contribute much. Still read a fair bit and always appreciate the analysis done by people.

1. 2017 Stephen Curry

Incredible impact and the most portable player ever. Tremendous impact even without the other Warriors' all-stars.

(2b. 2016 Curry, 2c. 2019 Curry)

2. 64 Bill Russell

Best defensive player ever in his best defensive season leading the best defensive season in NBA history.

(2b. 61 Russell)

3. 94 Hakeem Olajuwon

Incredible two-way impact. His defense and stifling of Ewing in the finals was perhaps unmatched in terms of 'shutting' someone down.

(3b. 93 Hakeem, 3c. 95 Hakeem)

[JordansBulls]

1. Hakeem 1994 (Won for a franchise that never won) also won league, finals mvp and DPOY the same year

2. Bill Russell 1962 (Considered his best season as an individual)

3. Bird 1986 (Dominant overall) - Won league and finals mvp's and one of the all time great teams.

Magic 1987 is a tie virtually with Bird 1986. But Bird played better overall players and won more games as well in the season could go either way though.