After all this talk, let me just do a Giannis play-by-play film review.
Unfortunately I couldn’t find any publicly available full-game stuff from the 21 Nets series, which was my preference. The only complete, easily-accessible quarter I could find was the end of Bucks vs Suns Game 6.
Context:
Does this Overrate Giannis? this is Giannis’ single best series ever, and this game in particular is also one of Giannis single best playoff shooting games ever. There’s reason to think this film study would overrate him.
Does this Underrate Giannis? It’s the very last minutes of the 21 playoffs, so Giannis and… well, everyone
… might be more fatigued and more conservative than usual. So it’s his best series ever, one of his best playoff-games ever, but certainly not his best quarter ever. Not sure how those factors balance out.
Format: X:XX Minute mark in video, Offense/Defense, [short summary], then longer summary.
0:00 Defense [okay]
Good defensive positioning. Could be more aggressive with help if he new the shot was going to go up (Booker doesn’t have the passing to pass behind him through the double), but sound positioning since he wasn’t going for the hard double.
0:17 Offense [Mistake early on, great later on]
Not crazy about that early-shotclock off-ball stuff. It’s off-ball screen to force a switch, but neither Bucks players do the action quick enough to actually pressure the defense. And here’s why I’m a touch lower on the off-ball gravity (compared to reputation, it’s still great) — Giannis’ old defender gets to sit in the lane with the worse spacing, which forces the long-midrange rather than the rim attempt. Inefficient shot, and it misses.
But, to Giannis’ credit, absolutely great off-ball movement at the end to get positioning, great pass to get it to him, and love the dunk through the defense.
0:27 D [okay]
Mostly unforced turnover from Paul.
0:32 O [Mistake]
2 on 2 in transition. Giannis Decision making: again, I actually think he could go for the score here. Check out the footwork of the Suns player by Giannis right before the pass… he’s in no position to defend, and neither is Booker. Still, if you’re ever going to be slightly too conservative, it would be at the end of a finals series when you’re up in the 4th quarter. Not perfect, but perfectly understandable.
But… at the end of the shot clock, look at the defense. Giannis defender is sagging of Giannis by almost 10 feet. This lack of shooting threat prevents middle penetration, forces the midrange shot, which misses
0:52 D [good]
Nothing highlight-worthy, but you could argue this is similar to the Gobert/Russell defensive “Anti-gravity”. Giannis sags off in the right spot to prevent middle penetration, forcing the Suns to go baseline. Giannis doesn’t end the defensive position but good positioning is good positioning.
Side comment, here we see how good Giannis' teammates are defensively compared to others in this tier.
1:35 O [Bad Mistake]
The kind of play that I seem to be harsher on than others. Giannis is triple teamed by the side. There’s a layup pass, a corner 3, and two more 3 pointers who are being zoned by 1 poor defender. Does he pass? No. Giannis does a Dream-shake-spin into a fadeaway midrange which misses.
To me, this shows my decision making concerns with Giannis and my playoff efficiency concerns with Giannis (his efficiency from medium midrange, long midrange, and 3 point land all get worse in playoffs).
1:52 D [Okay]
Again, Giannis isn’t quite as active on defense. If you’re favorable to him, you could say Giannis’ intimidation dissuades Booker from the iso, but it seems like the entire point of the Suns play was to get a post-mismatch for Ayton, which they get with little trouble. Giannis just sits in position after the switch.
Can we be forgiving from context? Sure. It’s tiring at the end of the playoffs. Here’s where I wish we could get that Nets series, which might (?) be more favorable to Giannis' motor.
… welp, they skipped a minute. So much for showing the Entire “Final 6:40” in this video. Alas, false advertising from the YouTube Name lol
2:15 D [mistake, then makes up for it]
Giannis is just a bit behind the best defensive minds (e.g. Russell/KG) in terms of predicting the switch. The quicker mind might have prevented the pass… Booker’s maybe 5 feet past the screen when Giannis recognizes he needs to rotate. Still, it’s far from slow (quite quick when comparing Giannis to non all-time defenders)… but he still gives up inner position. Also not a fan of the fact that Giannis bit on the pump fake. This could have been a layup from a more athletic/taller opponent.
But, he uses his size advantage well here. Once the triple comes, it looks like Giannis’ hands force the steal. Nice! Fine rebounding... Ayton does push Giannis slightly out of rebounding position occasionally in this game, but doesn't matter here.
2:40 O [Good triple team, bad pass... is this a mistake?]
Like that he’s attempting to be the pick n roll screener. Still, the screen doesn’t produce any advantage and booker (weak defender) recovers without any issue.
Giannis ISO, and wow what a difficult leaning pass! This is the second jump-pass that Giannis has done (maybe he picked up this habit from MJ highlights?). Produces an open 3 with his fantastic rim gravity, and the shooter misses. Full credit Giannis, full blame teammate?
But: Here’s where my earlier point comes in. I suggested his sub-optimal (among all-time greats, not among normal humans) passing may make it harder for teammates to benefit from Giannis’ rim gravity. Check out where placement of the pass is… it’s way outside the shooter’s pocket. Does the shooter miss? Sure thing, fault to the shooter. But does Giannis’ passing give the shooter the bess chance of success? I wouldn’t say so…
2:55 D [eh]
Giannis isn’t in position to get back in transition. Hard to blame him, he did produce an open 3 while falling out of the other baseline, but the Suns’ 2 on 1 does give the opponents a point.
3:08 O [mistake/negative]
Again, we get the off-ball concerns I have with Giannis. His lack of shooting lets his defender sag in, forces Middleteon to change direction, but more sagging in the paint forces… yet another midrange attempt from bucks, which gets knocked out.
3:45 D [okay]
Yet again, Giannis isn’t too active, but if you’re favorable to Giannis, you could say it’s intimidation of his man defense. Good man defense from Giannis’ teammates. Not great box-out from Giannis against paul who sneaks in, but doesn’t really matter.
5:15 O [good!]
I like the off-ball screen, which does produce some separation. A better shooter could use that, but Bucks don’t get anything. Pass to Giannis, cross-screen hand off to Middleton on the move. The non-giannis screen actually does create an advantage, and Middleton makes the shot on his own off the hand-off.
Good Bucks offense. Although Giannis didn’t produce or really help the made shot, I love the driving quickness and energy off-ball during Middleton’s midrange attempt. He gets himself in good position as a rollman and a rebounder.
This shows some of the off-ball improvement that Giannis didn’t really have quite as much in the first 2 rounds (including against the Nets, at least from memory), but did have for the last 2 rounds.
5:55 D [okay]
None of the 3 Bucks defenders (including Giannis) are quick enough to get around the off-ball screen or call the switch to prevent an open 3. Suns get an open 3, down only 6. Not great from Giannis, but not terrible… they all 3 had moments where they could have prevented this.
That said, good positioning for the rebound.
7:00 D [mistake]
The suns are down 8, 40 seconds left. They might be looking to make a 3. Giannis sags off too much from Chris Paul for my taste and CP3 takes the 3.
… another time skip. Shame, it’s a fun watch.
8:07 D ["intentional mistake"]
Doesn’t provide any rim protection when he could, but it's clearly intentional… they’d rather give up a layup, avoid an unnecessary foul on paul, and get possession in the final minute.
8:50 O [eh, not great]
First free-throw attempts for Giannis. Makes 1/2 for 50%. This is a chance to talk about Giannis’ Free throw shooting. It’s far from good historically among all-time players, and it declines in literally every single playoffs Giannis has been it. We’ve debated whether that’s just a rather consistent unlucky/cold streak or causal (e.g. because he has more fatigue in the playoffs). His FT% in the 2021 Regular season was 68.5%, his FT% in the 21 Playoffs was 58.7%, and his FT% across 3-year playoff run was 61.5%.
Using this game to talk about his 2021 playoff numbers are ironic, since he actually had a bit of a hot-free throw shooting stretch at this point in the playoffs. He made a surprising amount in this game specifically. But on average, it still wasn't great. Thinking Basketball once said unexpected hot-shooting can massively increase your value in small samples. I wonder how much this hot streak was good shooting luck vs just getting into the right mentality, and how much they boosted his playoff plus/minus numbers?
Regardless, credit. After this shot, Giannis is a champion. I have him lower than most people all-time, but he's still better than 99.99% of NBA players ever.
Overal:-Offensive pros: Rim gravity pops up, just like everybody (even me haha!) have been saying. His rim scoring also pops up. His improved off-ball ability in the 2nd half of the 2021 playoffs (vs first half of the 2021 playoffs or the 2020 playoffs) was also visible.
-Defensive pros: Good positioning, arguably some amount of defensive intimidation.
-Offensive cons: My concerns with his shooting and spacing showed up just like I thought. The decline from midrange and free throw was visible, as was the poor perimeter gravity making it harder on Giannis' teammates. My playmaking concerns also appeared. A few moments of sub-optimal decision making and passing (great for an average player, not great for an all-time offensive player).
-Defensive cons: To my eye, he clearly has worse rim protection and had slightly less overall impact than the Robinson/Walton tier. His defensive activity was down compared to them. If you're favorable to Giannis, would you explain this away using arguments for his intimidation, 4th Quarter fatigue, or era differences? Or is this a sign that he actually is a tier lower than them?
Let me know what y'all think! I've been accused of pretty heavy bias and dishonesty in this thread, so if anyone thinks this film-analysis is unfair, don't hesitate to (respectfully) let me know where you disagree
