Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #15 - 1965-66 Jerry West

[falcolombardi]

I have a bit of an issue here

You suggest here that denver defense struggling cause the other team was great from 3 means jokic cannot be blamed but also suggest that other teams shooting hot from 2 and the paint cannot be blamed on jokic either

Did I?

I just went back and looked; I don't see where I said that, nor even where I implied it (except where I noted his primary covers did not have great series's).
I guess also implied that in a couple of series's ('20 vs Lakers, '22 vs GSW) the 2pt shooting probably isn't sustainable over long samples. I mean, I still think that's a true statement: even if those teams played Jokic and the Nuggets for 82 games, 59% long-term is not realistic.

I otherwise just noted any hot 2pt shooting, and just let the statement lay. And I sort of assumed he'd get some blame for that.
fwiw, hot 2pt shooting was less frequent than hot 3pt shooting by Nugget opponents.

I agree the C can play more of a role in 3pt defense (have argued this where Gobert is concerned, as Jazz perimeter defenders have often been deployed to chase shooters off the line, because Rudy's got their backs). I'm saying that this is a scheme that Denver, specifically, has never employed with Jokic [for good reason--->he's not enough of a rim protector].

I suppose you could say that if Jokic was a more relevant rim-protector, they COULD have switched to this and their 3pt defense would be better......except they know their interior defense would worsen by an even larger amount.

But his lack of involvement in 3pt defense [unless it's specifically his man who's shooting] is not a new or sudden thing in these series's where the hot 3pt shooting occurred. It's not something they were doing in the rs and then suddenly stopped because Jokic was getting torched by penetrators. They NEVER employed this type of scheming to my knowledge.

And the sudden upsurge in 3pt accuracy I noted in those series's were improvements FAR beyond what Denver typically allows, or what those teams typically shoot (likely flukey hot small samples, is what I'm basically saying; +/- some degree of failure by the perimeter D [which Jokic is---as we've just established---not a frequent component of]).

That's all I'm suggesting wrt outside shooting.
Fair enough with regards to the inside shooting; I didn't mean to overly imply otherwise (except to things previously noted).

I was not trying to put words in your mouth so apologies if i ended up doing just that

What i tried to say is that while is not fair to blame jokic solely for denver woes, specially at perimeter defense

We cannpt really separate a center from what happens in the paint, jokic as you say is primsrly a paint defender and denver paint defense is just not good at all

This doesnt necesarrily have to be his lone fault, but is a data point that stands out.

[capfan33]

I think with Jokic specifically he has the Dirk issue where he really needs an elite defensive big next to him in order to have a team capable of winning a title. I feel like he'd be fine in a system with good defenders around him, but this has yet to be seen of course.

[DraymondGold]

1. 94 David Robinson
1b. 95 David Robinson
2. 1966 Jerry West
2b. 1969 Jerry West, 1970, 1968,1965
3. 2022 Jokic. HM: 2021 Jokic.
HM: Kobe/KD/Walton. Wade/Dirk.

Reasoning:
Don't particularly feel like a long post. In short:

A) Robinson clearly has the best impact data, and despite others' disagreement, I don't feel like the impact metrics are biased enough by era/teammates/fit/etc. to put him lower. Defensively, he's the only remaining person in Tier 1/2 of my GOAT defenders (along with Russell obviously, Hakeem, Duncan, KG, Wilt not in order). I love his rim protection, big man man defense, and help defense. His ability to raise regular season defenses is like a rich-man's Gobert, but I see his perimeter mobility as less of an liability (at least in that era). The fact that he was the center on the GOAT Defensive Dynasty of the modern NBA (both statistically and by the eye test) also says a lot, and while credit goes to Tim Duncan for that, I'm not sure there's anybody left who could do this well defensively in that era (e.g. Giannis' rim protection isn't on the same level).
Offensively, he's a great scorer (though not the same level as others in this tier), and great off-ball player. He's a great first option in the regular season (trex_8063 joked that he was basically asked to be Russell and Jordan in the regular season haha), and while this scheme alongside his poor fitting/low-value teammates did become more vulnerable in the playoffs, I see this as an issue of fit/situation, not an inherent limit to Robinson. He performed much better and showed more resilience as a defensive 1 and offensive 1b/2, which is a fairly common archetype in history on championship teams (Thinking Basketball estimates ~50% of championship teams have this archetype). He basically never got to play with an all-star guard, despite having one of the best big-man off-ball games. That lob threat would be legendary.

Edit: I recently saw one stat that further supports the idea that Robinson's atrocious teammates were pulling his value down in the playoffs, and that he would have far better impact if he had a better team around him: from 98-01, with a better team / offensive fit, despite clearly not being at his peak, Robinson had the highest multi-year playoff on/off of any high-minute player. Ever.
98-01 Robinson's at +25.1 on/off (per 48), while 00-04 Shaq is second all the way dow at +21. [source: thinking basketball's latest Jordan +/- video]

As for 94 vs 95, I'm open to discussion. There's a trend of all-time players having a better regular season early on in their career (with their more athletic motor), and then losing athleticism but gaining enough experience/skill/BBIQ to offset their lost motor and have a better playoff performance when they're older. This trend isn't universal, but it does raise a question of whether this is the case for Robinson in 94 (clearly best regular season) vs 95/96 (likely better postseason). I see 96 as enough of a drop in athleticism to put it below 94. In the film I've seen, I haven't been convinced yet that 95 showed sufficient skill/experience improvement (compared to say 09 vs 13 LeBron's visible growth in skillset, with his off-ball game, shooting, post-game, and improved passing). Not for certain, just the way I'm leaning now. If anyone wants to do any film analysis of 95 vs 94, that would probably be the way to convince me otherwise.

We've already debated Robinson vs Giannis too much, so no need to re-sour the discussion with that.
The similarities with Walton are highly interesting, and not lost on me. Walton's one of the few players ever to have a comparable defensive impact, his passing is clearly better, and his shooting was (odd but) ahead of its time. Like with all players, each comes with some uncertainty, but I have higher uncertainty for Walton, given how short his healthy peak was. Probably the single greatest loss in basketball history in terms of greatness we didn't get to see due to injury.
One poster mentioned that Walton's peak has the best single-season WOWY on record. Wow! That does raise an eyebrow, but I'm not (yet) convinced for two reasons. 1) WOWY Biases. WOWY tends to like offensive quarterbacks (i.e. playmakers who run the offense > finishers who make the last shot) and defensive centerpieces (i.e. high volume defensive rim protectors). Walton's basically the perfect archetype to be highly rated in this stat. Is there some truth to this? I'd say so... I do personally value offensive playmaking > finishing more than the average RealGM person, and WOWY does support this. But this may also be a slight systematic overrating by WOWY... it can be harder to replace a playmaker who runs the offense or a defensive rim protector for just a few games without totally changing your offensive/defensive scheme. 2) Robinson is still Tier 1 in WOWY, even if his best season is a hair behind Walton's.

B) West:

The next tier will be the hardest to order. Now that players' imperfections are getting bigger, we have to start making some difficult comparisons. I might end up changing this vote in the next round (maybe for Walton, Kobe, KD, Oscar, or Jokic). Here's my thought process currently:

Skill wise, Jerry West looks great. He's very likely the best scorer of the bunch, with a fantastic driving game, incredible foul-drawing ability, and a shooting touch that was ahead of his time. He also improved his scoring in the playoffs more than any other star here. In terms of playmaking, he definitely ins't at the level of Oscar, Walton, or Jokic. That said, I don't see it below Kobe, and it's probably above KD (and other players like Moses, Erving, Wade). His defense is also often heralded as the best of the guards and wings we're considering.

Statistically, West seems lower in the group. So what made me pick him?
-BPM: While West does have a lower BPM than many of his competitors, it was far harder to gain separation in BPM as a 1960s guard. BPM could be underrating both Oscar and West. Further, BPM may be less effectively capturing West's defensive value, without any sort of steal/block input. Much of the BPM gap gets closed if we just look at Offensive BPM, and Defensive BPM has him as the worst defender of the guard/wing group (again because of the missing steal/steal numbers), which is certainly not true.
-WOWY: West performs a lot better here. He's 2nd all time in prime un-regressed WOWY and 11th all time in prime regressed WOWYR (which is like RAPM to the un-regressed APM). This stat puts him above all the other wings/guards except Oscar. While Oscar does pull ahead in prime WOWY, if we constrain it to 5-year peak WOWY, West pulls ahead of Oscar (5 years gives us stabler numbers). It's also worth noting that WOWY tends to favor players who are quarterbacks of the offense or defense (e.g. primary play-makers or primary rim protectors) over finishers like West. The fact that West gets this close to Oscar, despite Oscar playing an archetype that is arguably favored by WOWY, makes me wonder whether West is better.
-WS/48: Sticking with the comparison to Oscar, while Oscar is ahead in 1-year regular season WS/48, they're actually tied in 2-year regular season WS/48. The gap shrinks in the playoffs, and West is again ahead in multi-year playoff WS/48.

Philosophically, I also like many of West's characteristics.
He's quite scalable, certainly more than Oscar, Kobe, and Wade. He's single best shooter of the 1960s. As a combo-guard, he could play both on and off ball. And as I've said, he's also arguably the best defender of the bunch. These are all scalable skills. He's also arguably the most resilient; nobody improves their scoring more in the playoffs. I'm definitely open to the idea that the one-number metrics underrate his defense (specifically BPM and WS/48), especially when lacking even the most basic defensive stats in the 60s. I also see him as someone who would clearly win the time-machine test. Jerry West played in the single worst era for a perimeter guard. Today, his all-time shooting would improve, as would the value of his perimeter defense.

Is it possible I'm biased, with the philosophical argument making me too favorable of his worse data? Absolutely possible. Like I said, I'm still figuring this next tier out, so feel free to push back if you disagree. I'm open to reconsidering

C) I'm really struggling to order this next tier. Jokic has the advantage in regular season impact metrics (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100727032#p100727032. Since we're dealing with a modern player, we can see a few more recent stats, where he's also leading the (recent) contenders in Fivethirtyeight’s Overall RAPTOR +/- and Bball-Index’s LEBRON. He seems more impactful than Kobe/KD, at least in the regular season.

I do have playoff resilience concerns (specifically with his defense), but with injured costars and short playoff samples often against bad matchups, it's just hard to know how impactful these concerns are. Ultimately Trex's arguments assuaged my concerns enough, as did Ty's argument about league difficulty (particularly vs Walton).

[Proxy]

Forgot about the deadline again so my last two votes gonna be very brief
15. 1977 Bill Walton (Explained in previous threads).
16. 1966 Jerry West (HMs '65, '68-'70)
Compared to Oscar in previous threads who just got voted in, similar value indicators to Oscar's(Oscar also being significantly more ball dominant gives him in the edge on these) but with better proof of portability and scalability being more versatile on both ends(especially on defense).
17. 2020 Anthony Davis??? I'd say I've been pretty convinced by UnibrowDavis' explanations in previous threads(could link if needed), I still think alot of his conclusions are pretty extreme like the KD offensive value comparison but upon revisiting his playoff run I I think not only was he not really optimized offensively(honestly he may not have been all that much for full seasons since like 2015, and his value wasn't optimized in the 2020 RS defensively and you could see the massive difference in Lakers' scheme from the RS vs the PS), but also the majority of things that made it great were pretty replicable to me(so much reasons for his dominance besides shooting luck honestly where he underperformed from true mid range if anything - the interior scoring, some of the self creation, the off ball stuff and relentless opportunity hunting where is truly all-time in that regard have all been pretty consistent things to me and why he looks like a general PS riser in his prime in the small sample). Offers so much value even with his secondary skills and allows for so much scheme versatility.

HMs: Drob, Jokić, Kobe, Wade, KD, Erving, Dirk(i've expressed some of my concerns with pretty much all of them in much earlier threads, less on Dirk though and don't have much time rn i'd probably go 08 Kobe, 17 KD, or 22 Jokić for 4th on my ballot though) - i'm not super confident in arguing for Mikan or Hawkins based on what I know about them right now

[LA Bird]

There is a tie between 66 West, 77 Walton and 06/09 Wade so we have a runoff between the three. If you didn't vote for any of them or you haven't voted in this round at all yet, please do so before 9am ET tomorrow. If there is still a tie as at the end of the runoff, a winner will be determined according to the tiebreak rule in the project thread.

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[SickMother]

I've got 06 Wade highest of those three followed by 66 West then 77 Walton.

[drza]

Hello, all. I've been off the radar for awhile, now, and am not part of this project, but when I saw Jerry West was up I had a quick comment. I just met the Logo, last month in Vegas. It was a quick meeting, but I mean, it was Jerry West! One of my friends was with me, and he agreed that the meeting was the most memorable story for this year's Summer League. And I had a two-fer of NBA legend interactions that day, since I rode the elevator w/ Isiah Thomas in the morning then encountered Jerry West that night. Was quite a day for a basketball nerd like me.

Anyway. As always, I'm enjoying the projects. Even when I'm not involved, they're always good reading

[DraymondGold]

Tiebreaker vote:
1. 1966 Jerry West (but I already voted for him, so this won’t count)
2. Walton (didn’t vote for him, so this should count?)
3. Dwayne Wade
Here’s my case for Jerry West.

A) Offensive Skill Comparison

Ai) Scoring: Jerry West > Wade >> Walton

One year peaK:
66 West: 26.6 pts/75 on +8.6% rTS%. +2 ScoreVal
77 Walton: 19.8 pts/75 on +5.2 rTS%. +1.2 ScoreVal.
09 Wade: +31.9 pts/75 on +3.0% rTS%. +1.1 ScoreVal.
06 Wade: +28.7 pts/75 on +4.2% rTS%. +1.2 ScoreVal.

Playoff 66 West: 26.4 pts./75 on +9.1% rTS%. +2.9 ScoreVal
Playoff 77 Walton: 17.3 pts/75 on +2.5 rTS%. +0.8 ScoreVal.
Playoff 09 Wade: 31.9 pts/75 on +3.0% rTS%. +1.1 ScoreVal
Playoff 06 Wade: 28.9 pts/75 on +7.1% rTS%. +1.8 ScoreVal.

Two year:
65/66 West: 27.1 pts/75 on +9.0% rTS%. +2.1 ScoreVal
77/78 Walton: 20.9 pts/75 on +4.6 rTS%. +1.1 ScoreVal
09/10 Wade: 31 pts/75 on +2.5% rTS%. +0.9 ScoreVal
06/07 Wade: 29.3 pts/75 on +4.2% rTS%. +1.1 ScoreVal

Playoff 65/66 West: 30.5 pts/75 on +7.1 rTS%. +3.1 ScoreVal
Playoff 77/78 Walton: 20.2 pts/75 on +8.0% rTS%. +1.4 ScoreVal.
Playoff 09/10 Wade: 32.5 pts/75 on +7.3% rTS%. +2.1 ScoreVal
Playoff 06/07 Wade 27.1 pts/75 on +1.5% rTS%. +0.6 ScoreVal

So Jerry West is clearly the best scorer. He’s the best distance shooter of the three by a country mile, and is the best distance shooter of the entire 1960s (which relative to era puts him around the same tier as Bird/Reggie/Allen/Nash as a shooter). He’s clearly the better driver and free throw drawer over Walton, and is in the same tier as Wade. In the playoffs, he improves his scoring more than just about anyone with a Durant-like high release that was incredibly difficult to disrupt.

Overall, West has around a +10 points/75 advantage over Walton on over 3x the efficiency in the playoffs! Wade sneaks ahead in volume advantage, but West’s massive efficiency advantage gives him the overall better scoring value. In terms of scoring diversity, West is a massively superior shooter over Wade.

Aii) Creation: West > Wade/Walton
Most creation stats are lower as a whole before the spacing of the three point line (with far tighter passing lanes and less efficient shots to pass out to). But how do the stats compare relative to their league?

Per Box Creation:
66 West is 2nd in his year, and has over a 20% improvement in the playoffs
77 Walton isn’t even top 15, and has only a 13% improvement in the playoffs
09 Wade is 3rd in his year, and has only a -9% decrease in the playoffs
06 Wade is 6th in his league, and has only a 3% improvement in the playoffs

Now this might underrate Walton, especially if you compare relative to position. But I think West is the better creator in absolute terms over Walton. Compared to Wade, West is the better creator relative to his league, and is the better passer even in absolute terms.

Aii) Overall Offense: West’s team results >> Walton and Wade's
66 West’s PS Offensive rating: +7.8
77 Walton’s PS Offensive Rating: +2.1
09 Wade’s PS Offensive rating: -0.9
06 Wade’s PS Offensive rating: +2.7

Two year:
West’s team PS Offensive Rating: +7.1
Walton’s team PS Offensive Rating: +2.1
old Wade’s team PS offensive Rating: -4.3
young Wade’s team PS offensive rating: +0.0

So as the overall offensive player, West is likely the best scorer, best creator, and best overall offensive player by a some margin.

B) Defense: Walton’s probably best, but I’d argue West > Wade.
I shouldn’t need to defend Walton being the best defender of the three, so let's discuss West vs Wade.

For West vs Wade, in this board’s Greatest Defenders project, West came out ahead of Wade by some margin (although they put West at the PG position).
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345 In this board’s Greatest Defenders project, West came out ahead of Wade by some margin.

West had incredible defensive versatility. He had the speed, size, length, and strength to guard anyone from the quickest to the largest guards.

While steals and blocks are far from everything on defense, they’re some of the few defensive estimates we have for West, West’s estimates are historic. Wilt estimated he was third in the league in blocks after himself and Russell (which is likely an exaggeration, but still suggests he gained clear separation from other guards). In the newspaper recordings we have for steals, West was almost always over 5 steals and frequently approached 10 steals/game. In his very last year (the only year with officially recorded steals), despite being constantly injured and 35 years old, West was still 2nd in the league in steals.

In prime seasons when West missed 10+ games, his teams almost always got worse defensively. With West out, his opponents go worse by: -0.5 ppg (1963), -1.2 ppg (1967), +1.9 (68), -0.4 (69), -1.5 (71). [source: above link]

C) Overall impact
In short WOWY samples, Walton's a better single-year WOWY score. But West’s 5-year WOWY score beats Walton's 5-year WOWY score.

Prime West's WOWYR: +7.4 (over Hakeem, Duncan, even over Shaq/Kareem)
Prime Wade's WOWYR: +2.2
Prime Walton: not enough years

By playoff WS/48: [1968/1969 West] >> 06 Wade >= 66 West > [78 Walton] >> 09 Wade > 77 Walton

Wade’s WOWY score is shockingly low, and I think it should give us some pause. Walton’s one-year WOWY is high, but West surpasses up over multi-season samples. West is also the best playoff performer in WS/48, and West played the most playoff minutes of any of them.

D) Other Factors

In Scalability, Walton may be best, but West is clearly > Wade. West has tremendous versatility as a player, able to be both the point guard and play off-ball as a shooting guard. His combination of shooting, off-ball play, defense, and passing would fit great with better teammates. Compare this to Wade’s ball dominant style, which showed greater diminishing returns with LeBron than many other star pairs, and worse yet… it’s not like Wade has the clear floor raising advantage, given how poor his teams’ playoff offenses are compared to West/Walton.

Resilience: West > Walton, Wade. West is famously one of the most resilient players of all time. His scoring improves more than just about anyone in the playoffs, and his all-in-one impact estimates also improve… he’s in the same tier as Jordan in terms of playoff improvements. Compare that to Walton whose scoring actually declines slightly in his best year.

Heath: none of the three are perfectly healthy players. But Walton’s probably the worst, which might diminish his defensive / scalability advantage.

Team fit: Walton’s supporting cast is probably the best fit around him at his peak. The offensive movement around Walton is ahead of its time, and seems like overall better support relative to the opposition than West had.

Time machine: Again, West > Walton, Wade. West played in the single worst era possible for his skillset. In today’s era, his ability as an all-decade shooter would clearly be hyper-valuable. He didn’t even have a 3 point line! On defense, while his raw steal/block numbers might go down, the overall value of perimeter defense has only increased since the 60s, so I see this helping him too. His defensive versatility would fit perfectly in a switching scheme.

Ultimately, I see West as having the best argument. Walton’s advantage on defense and in the stats puts him over Wade for me. I'd take 09 Wade over 06 Wade.

[trelos6]

I already have West as my pick, but if it comes down to Walton v Wade, I think I’d have Wade 09 ahead of Walton 77

[HeartBreakKid]

how big is the list supposed to be? Top ____?

[falcolombardi]

how big is the list supposed to be? Top ____?

100 i think?

Edit: was thinking of the top 100 list

Last pwaks project was top 40. Honestly i would love if it went at least to top 50 this time

[trex_8063]

I already had '77 Walton on my ballot, so I guess I'll stick with him.

THough if it comes down to a showdown between West and Wade, I think I'll go with '66 West (considered him for my 3rd ballot, actually).

[No-more-rings]

Haven’t voted, but if I can help break a tiebreaker I will. Vote Wade over West and Walton. Wade and West are similar caliber, but prefer Wade’s athleticism and slashing ability. West is a better shooter, but I don’t know if it translates to better overall offense in more modern eras. He’d still be absolutely elite, but don’t think i’d be confident in him over Wade with more modern defenders and schemes. Defensively, West is maybe better but I don’t think there’s enough tape to be definitive on that.

Walton is sort of weird case here. His so-so scoring holds him back some. I’d be really hesitant to build around him in a more modern era over a slew of some others. Honestly he’s not a guy I’ve watched a lot of though, but I’m just really not keem on low scoring superstars including Bill Russell. Duncan is a guy who wasn’t an all time scorer, but he was way above someone like Russell or Walton. He was actually a legitimate force at his peak scoring wise, and his passing was great even if it wasn’t as crafty as Walton’s.

There’s just too much uncertainty for West and Walton for me to take over Wade. He really did take one of the weakest casts of all time to a title regardless of how you view his scalability or whatever. I’m not really even sure how that matters for peak. If you have peak Wade you’d be foolish to not give him the reigns most circumstances. Honestly though I probably wouldn’t even have Wade in this spot. Jokic probably peaked higher, and Dr J is more or less equal. I think Giannis over Jokic is a big mistake, but i guess that’s something I can talk about later in a different thread.

[DraymondGold]

Haven’t voted, but if I can help break a tiebreaker I will. Vote Wade over West and Walton. Wade and West are similar caliber, but prefer Wade’s athleticism and slashing ability. West is a better shooter, but I don’t know if it translates to better overall offense in more modern eras. He’d still be absolutely elite, but don’t think i’d be confident in him over Wade with more modern defenders and schemes.

Wait... so you think the vastly superior shooter (by your own admission) would translate worse to this era as a scorer than the drastically worse shooter? To this era, the one that relies so much on shooting? I... don't really get the thinking. 06 Wade was literally a 17.1% 3 point shooter, and you see that adjusting better to the modern era? By 2009, he was all the way up to 31.7%, still -5.0% below league average.

You mention Wade's athleticism, which is a good point! But I really can't see the argument that he's such a better slasher than West by a wide enough margin. West is commonly considered one of the greatest guard slashers ever. If we use free throw rate as a proxy for how much they drove to the rim (poor proxy but both players got most of their fouls drawn on driving attempts), West has 6 playoffs with 10+ FTA/100 to Wade's 7. Slight advantage Wade but nothing major, and certainly not as extreme as the shooting difference.

You mention modern defenses making it harder for West's driving ability, but West was slashing into a far more packed paint without the spacing that Wade had in the 2000s. More than that, he faced Bill Russell, a GOAT-level rim protector, 6 times in the NBA finals. I don't see Wade facing anything close to that level of defensive opposition on drives, much less given the added spacing Wade had.

Defensively, West is maybe better but I don’t think there’s enough tape to be definitive on that.

When you admit West is the better defender too (to say nothing of the better passer), I'm just a bit confused on the reasoning for Wade.

Walton is sort of weird case here. His so-so scoring holds him back some. I’d be really hesitant to build around him in a more modern era over a slew of some others. Honestly he’s not a guy I’ve watched a lot of though, but I’m just really not keem on low scoring superstars including Bill Russell. Duncan is a guy who wasn’t an all time scorer, but he was way above someone like Russell or Walton. He was actually a legitimate force at his peak scoring wise, and his passing was great even if it wasn’t as crafty as Walton’s.

There’s just too much uncertainty for West and Walton for me to take over Wade. He really did take one of the weakest casts of all time to a title regardless of how you view his scalability or whatever. I’m not really even sure how that matters for peak. If you have peak Wade you’d be foolish to not give him the reigns most circumstances. Honestly though I probably wouldn’t even have Wade in this spot. Jokic probably peaked higher, and Dr J is more or less equal. I think Giannis over Jokic is a big mistake, but i guess that’s something I can talk about later in a different thread.

About the last point at least, we agree

[falcolombardi]

Haven’t voted, but if I can help break a tiebreaker I will. Vote Wade over West and Walton. Wade and West are similar caliber, but prefer Wade’s athleticism and slashing ability. West is a better shooter, but I don’t know if it translates to better overall offense in more modern eras. He’d still be absolutely elite, but don’t think i’d be confident in him over Wade with more modern defenders and schemes.

Wait... so you think the vastly superior shooter (by your own admission) would translate worse to this era as a scorer than the drastically worse shooter? To this era, the one that relies so much on shooting? I... don't really get the thinking.

You mention Wade's athleticism, which is a good point! But I really can't see the argument that he's such a better slasher than West by a wide enough margin. West is commonly considered one of the greatest guard slashers ever. If we use free throw rate as a proxy for slashing ability (poor proxy but both players got most of their fouls drawn on driving attempts), West has 6 playoffs with 10+ FTA/100 to Wade's 7. Slight advantage Wade but nothing major, and certainly not as extreme as the shooting difference.

You mention modern defenses making it harder for West's driving ability, but West was slashing into a far more packed paint without the spacing that Wade had in the 2000s. More than that, he faced Bill Russell, a GOAT-level rim protector, 6 times in the NBA finals. I don't see Wade facing anything close to that level of defensive opposition on drives, much less given the added spacing he had.

Defensively, West is maybe better but I don’t think there’s enough tape to be definitive on that.

When you admit West is the better defender too (to say nothing of the better passer), I'm just a bit confused on the reasoning for Wade.

Walton is sort of weird case here. His so-so scoring holds him back some. I’d be really hesitant to build around him in a more modern era over a slew of some others. Honestly he’s not a guy I’ve watched a lot of though, but I’m just really not keem on low scoring superstars including Bill Russell. Duncan is a guy who wasn’t an all time scorer, but he was way above someone like Russell or Walton. He was actually a legitimate force at his peak scoring wise, and his passing was great even if it wasn’t as crafty as Walton’s.

There’s just too much uncertainty for West and Walton for me to take over Wade. He really did take one of the weakest casts of all time to a title regardless of how you view his scalability or whatever. I’m not really even sure how that matters for peak. If you have peak Wade you’d be foolish to not give him the reigns most circumstances. Honestly though I probably wouldn’t even have Wade in this spot. Jokic probably peaked higher, and Dr J is more or less equal. I think Giannis over Jokic is a big mistake, but i guess that’s something I can talk about later in a different thread.

About the last point at least, we agree

You are looking at it from the wrong angle here imo

spacing benefits players who score inside, so wade would benefit a freakin ton from playing today.

Now, west was also a great slasher and he would benefit a ton from converting his 2's into 3's so i am not surr wade benefits more than west here

Also wade was a monster help defender, he was lebron lite defensively as a perimeter rim protector which i am not sure west could replicate even if we assume he is the vest 1 vs 1 defender

[DraymondGold]

Haven’t voted, but if I can help break a tiebreaker I will. Vote Wade over West and Walton. Wade and West are similar caliber, but prefer Wade’s athleticism and slashing ability. West is a better shooter, but I don’t know if it translates to better overall offense in more modern eras. He’d still be absolutely elite, but don’t think i’d be confident in him over Wade with more modern defenders and schemes.

Wait... so you think the vastly superior shooter (by your own admission) would translate worse to this era as a scorer than the drastically worse shooter? To this era, the one that relies so much on shooting? I... don't really get the thinking.

You mention Wade's athleticism, which is a good point! But I really can't see the argument that he's such a better slasher than West by a wide enough margin. West is commonly considered one of the greatest guard slashers ever. If we use free throw rate as a proxy for slashing ability (poor proxy but both players got most of their fouls drawn on driving attempts), West has 6 playoffs with 10+ FTA/100 to Wade's 7. Slight advantage Wade but nothing major, and certainly not as extreme as the shooting difference.

You mention modern defenses making it harder for West's driving ability, but West was slashing into a far more packed paint without the spacing that Wade had in the 2000s. More than that, he faced Bill Russell, a GOAT-level rim protector, 6 times in the NBA finals. I don't see Wade facing anything close to that level of defensive opposition on drives, much less given the added spacing he had.

Defensively, West is maybe better but I don’t think there’s enough tape to be definitive on that.

When you admit West is the better defender too (to say nothing of the better passer), I'm just a bit confused on the reasoning for Wade.

Walton is sort of weird case here. His so-so scoring holds him back some. I’d be really hesitant to build around him in a more modern era over a slew of some others. Honestly he’s not a guy I’ve watched a lot of though, but I’m just really not keem on low scoring superstars including Bill Russell. Duncan is a guy who wasn’t an all time scorer, but he was way above someone like Russell or Walton. He was actually a legitimate force at his peak scoring wise, and his passing was great even if it wasn’t as crafty as Walton’s.

There’s just too much uncertainty for West and Walton for me to take over Wade. He really did take one of the weakest casts of all time to a title regardless of how you view his scalability or whatever. I’m not really even sure how that matters for peak. If you have peak Wade you’d be foolish to not give him the reigns most circumstances. Honestly though I probably wouldn’t even have Wade in this spot. Jokic probably peaked higher, and Dr J is more or less equal. I think Giannis over Jokic is a big mistake, but i guess that’s something I can talk about later in a different thread.

About the last point at least, we agree

You are looking at it from the wrong angle here imo

Nobody benefits more from spacing that players who score the most inside, so wade would benefit a freakin ton from playing today

Now, west was also a great slasher and he would benefit a ton from converting his 2's into efficient 3's so i am not surr wade benefits more than west here

That's true, slashers do benefit from more spacing, but like you say Wade's advantage as a slasher over West is far from large (if he even does have the advantage).

And I wouldn't think I"d have to convince people that in 2022, shooting is valuable and shooting 17% on 3s is bad... How far back would defenders be from Wade? How much more would opposing defenses get to clog the paint (both for Wade and Wade's teammates) because Wade's distance shooting was atrocious? And this is in comparison to the best shooter of an entire decade being given a 3 point line for the first time. Am I the crazy one here??

[falcolombardi]

Wait... so you think the vastly superior shooter (by your own admission) would translate worse to this era as a scorer than the drastically worse shooter? To this era, the one that relies so much on shooting? I... don't really get the thinking.

You mention Wade's athleticism, which is a good point! But I really can't see the argument that he's such a better slasher than West by a wide enough margin. West is commonly considered one of the greatest guard slashers ever. If we use free throw rate as a proxy for slashing ability (poor proxy but both players got most of their fouls drawn on driving attempts), West has 6 playoffs with 10+ FTA/100 to Wade's 7. Slight advantage Wade but nothing major, and certainly not as extreme as the shooting difference.

You mention modern defenses making it harder for West's driving ability, but West was slashing into a far more packed paint without the spacing that Wade had in the 2000s. More than that, he faced Bill Russell, a GOAT-level rim protector, 6 times in the NBA finals. I don't see Wade facing anything close to that level of defensive opposition on drives, much less given the added spacing he had.

When you admit West is the better defender too (to say nothing of the better passer), I'm just a bit confused on the reasoning for Wade.

About the last point at least, we agree

You are looking at it from the wrong angle here imo

Nobody benefits more from spacing that players who score the most inside, so wade would benefit a freakin ton from playing today

Now, west was also a great slasher and he would benefit a ton from converting his 2's into efficient 3's so i am not surr wade benefits more than west here

That's true, slashers do benefit from more spacing, but like you say Wade's advantage as a slasher over West is far from large (if he even does have the advantage).

And I wouldn't think I"d have to convince people that in 2022, shooting is valuable and shooting 17% on 3s is bad... How far back would defenders be from Wade? How much more would opposing defenses get to clog the paint (both for Wade and Wade's teammates) because Wade's distance shooting was atrocious? And this is in comparison to the best shooter of an entire decade being given a 3 point line for the first time. Am I the crazy one here??

Why are you using 17% as wade baseline?

This is a guy who adjusted to a 100 possesions pace had a 32 points on 70% ts vs a strong pistons team in 2006 with nuch less spacing that he would have now.

[DraymondGold]

You are looking at it from the wrong angle here imo

Nobody benefits more from spacing that players who score the most inside, so wade would benefit a freakin ton from playing today

Now, west was also a great slasher and he would benefit a ton from converting his 2's into efficient 3's so i am not surr wade benefits more than west here

That's true, slashers do benefit from more spacing, but like you say Wade's advantage as a slasher over West is far from large (if he even does have the advantage).

And I wouldn't think I"d have to convince people that in 2022, shooting is valuable and shooting 17% on 3s is bad... How far back would defenders be from Wade? How much more would opposing defenses get to clog the paint (both for Wade and Wade's teammates) because Wade's distance shooting was atrocious? And this is in comparison to the best shooter of an entire decade being given a 3 point line for the first time. Am I the crazy one here??

Why are you using 17% as wade baseline?

No-more-rings had both Wade years over West, with one of the primary reason being that he thinks Wade's scoring would adjust better to today's 3-point-heavy league.

But Wade shot 17% from 3 in 06, a whopping 18.7% below his league average! He shot 31% from 3 in 09... which is the single best shooting year of his entire prime... and still -5% below league average back then.

I'm just using basketball reference for 3P%. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01.html

Edit: I see that you responded with Wade's overall efficiency. It's great that Wade's overall efficiency was so high, but like I said in my post... West beats Wade by a massive margin in playoff efficiency if we're taking 1 year sample, a clear margin for 2 year samples, and a large margin again in longer samples.

[falcolombardi]

That's true, slashers do benefit from more spacing, but like you say Wade's advantage as a slasher over West is far from large (if he even does have the advantage).

And I wouldn't think I"d have to convince people that in 2022, shooting is valuable and shooting 17% on 3s is bad... How far back would defenders be from Wade? How much more would opposing defenses get to clog the paint (both for Wade and Wade's teammates) because Wade's distance shooting was atrocious? And this is in comparison to the best shooter of an entire decade being given a 3 point line for the first time. Am I the crazy one here??

Why are you using 17% as wade baseline?

No-more-rings had both Wade years over West. Wade shot 17% from 3 in 06, a whopping 18.7% below league average! He shot 31% from 3 in 09... which is the single best shooting year of his entire prime... and still -5% below league average back then.

I'm just using basketball reference for 3P%. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01.html

He shot 1 3 pointer per game in regular season, aka he took 76 3 pointers that whole reg season

The sample size is so tiny you cannot take outlier numbers too seriously

He incr3ased his volume to 1.6 in the playoffs and shot 38% and not exactly because he suddendly became a twice as efficient shooter

[DraymondGold]

Why are you using 17% as wade baseline?

No-more-rings had both Wade years over West. Wade shot 17% from 3 in 06, a whopping 18.7% below league average! He shot 31% from 3 in 09... which is the single best shooting year of his entire prime... and still -5% below league average back then.

I'm just using basketball reference for 3P%. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01.html

He shot 1 3 pointer per game in regular season, aka he took 76 3 pointers that whole reg season

The sample size is so tiny you cannot take outlier numbers too seriously

He incr3ased his volume to 1.6 in the playoffs and shot 38% and not exactly because he suddendly became a twice as efficient shooter

Sure, good point about small sample size!

But the tiny shooting volume brings us right back to the original problem. The argument made for Wade was that he's the better slasher and that he'd be a better scorer today (despite being an objectively terrible shooter).

But... West's also one of the greatest guard slashers ever, and West's the better shooter by a country mile, being ported to an era where shooting is more important than ever. And while you may counter Wade is an efficient scorer overall, West's the overall more efficienct scorer. Including in the playoffs!