Higher peak to date: Nikola Jokic vs Giannis

[Peregrine01]

Giannis vs Jokic over the last four seasons...
A) .631 TS% | 785 TS Add | 31.1 OWS | 6.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .626 TS% | 686 TS Add | 37.2 OWS | 7.5 OBPM | 124 ORtg
(Giannis higher scoring volume showing up in TS Add, Jokic overall impact showing up in the last three, but still pretty small margins)

Curry vs AI, best four seasons...
A) .636 TS% | 1,204 TS Add | 43.3 OWS | 7.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .546 TS% | 146 TS Add | 27.0 OWS | 4.1 OBPM | 109 ORtg
(Not even a relevant comparison)

Duncan vs Dirk best four seasons...
A) .558 TS% | 513 TS Add | 33.1 OWS | 4.3 OBPM | 110 ORtg
B) .589 TS% | 706 TS Add | 44.5 OWS | 6.6 OBPM | 121 ORtg
(A little closer, but still much larger margins than Giannis vs Jokic)

What do these numbers look like for the last two seasons?

[SickMother]

Giannis vs Jokic over the last four seasons...
A) .631 TS% | 785 TS Add | 31.1 OWS | 6.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .626 TS% | 686 TS Add | 37.2 OWS | 7.5 OBPM | 124 ORtg
(Giannis higher scoring volume showing up in TS Add, Jokic overall impact showing up in the last three, but still pretty small margins)

Curry vs AI, best four seasons...
A) .636 TS% | 1,204 TS Add | 43.3 OWS | 7.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .546 TS% | 146 TS Add | 27.0 OWS | 4.1 OBPM | 109 ORtg
(Not even a relevant comparison)

Duncan vs Dirk best four seasons...
A) .558 TS% | 513 TS Add | 33.1 OWS | 4.3 OBPM | 110 ORtg
B) .589 TS% | 706 TS Add | 44.5 OWS | 6.6 OBPM | 121 ORtg
(A little closer, but still much larger margins than Giannis vs Jokic)

What do these numbers look like for the last two seasons?

That's where it gets tricky. I used four year splits because they've won the last four MVPs, but Giannis is already on the fourth year of his peak, where Jokic is really only on the second year of his.

Last two seasons Jokic is at...

.654 TS% | 508 TS Add | 22.9 OWS | 9.2 OBPM | 128 ORtg

Putting together Giannis best two offensive regular seasons (18 & 22 for me) looks something like this...

~.639 TS% | 472 TS Add | 18.1 OWS | ~7.0 OBPM | ~123 ORtg

The margins shift toward Nikola some, but its still pretty close & also leaves out one season where Giannis won MVP with the then 2nd highest PER ever, plus another where he won FMVP with one of the most impressive offensive displays of all time including 50 points in the clincher.

Nikola's regular season offensive peak these last couple seasons is slightly higher, but the breadth & depth of Giannis offense over the duration of his peak is more impressive to me personally.

[Peregrine01]

'22 on/off ORTGs:

Nuggets when Jokic on: 117
Nuggets when Jokic off: 105

Bucks when Giannis on: 116
Bucks when Giannis off: 108

Jokic takes the Nuggets to the best offense in the league when he's on the court and they turn out an ORTG that would rank worse in the league when he's off. Bucks were also plenty good on offense when Giannis was on but he's also on a team with much better offensive talent and they still didn't reach the heights that an injury-riddled Nuggets did when Jokic was on the court.

[SickMother]

'22 on/off ORTGs:

Nuggets when Jokic on: 117
Nuggets when Jokic off: 105

Bucks when Giannis on: 116
Bucks when Giannis off: 108

Jokic takes the Nuggets to the best offense in the league when he's on the court and they turn out an ORTG that would rank worse in the league when he's off. Bucks were also plenty good on offense when Giannis was on but he's also on a team with much better offensive talent and they still didn't reach the heights that an injury-riddled Nuggets did when Jokic was on the court.

Right. Jokic was slightly better on offense than Giannis this past season by a margin which was standards of deviation smaller than the difference between Curry/AI or Dirk/Duncan which were suggested as similar comps earlier in the thread.

[MyUniBroDavis]

'22 on/off ORTGs:

Nuggets when Jokic on: 117
Nuggets when Jokic off: 105

Bucks when Giannis on: 116
Bucks when Giannis off: 108

Jokic takes the Nuggets to the best offense in the league when he's on the court and they turn out an ORTG that would rank worse in the league when he's off. Bucks were also plenty good on offense when Giannis was on but he's also on a team with much better offensive talent and they still didn't reach the heights that an injury-riddled Nuggets did when Jokic was on the court.

You can’t compare team lineups to lineups with the best player in the court like that, but I think most people think Jokic is a good deal better offensively anyways

It’s gonna be how much do you think giannis’s playoff defense improves over his RS defense, and how much you think jokic’s playoff defense is a negative vs it being noise

I don’t think they’re particularly close offensively, but I think the playoff defensive gap is far larger

[The-Power]

Does championship bias play a role in Giannis usually getting the benefit of the doubt over Jokic? The guy just broke the PER record by nearly a whole point, then in the playoffs made the champion and 1st ranked defense look completely hopeless trying to guard him. Does Jokic's defense really hurt him that much? The Bucks defense in 2022 was only marginally better than the Nuggets despite the fact that Giannis had Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton, and a bunch of other good defenders.

Giannis' offense is overrated, and people overrate his offense because of how big of numbers he puts up. Just in his last series against the Celtics, he put up amazing raw numbers 34/14/7, but shot 51.6 ts% with over 5 tov and the Bucks wound up with just a 101.7 ORTG(-13.4 from regular season). It was a solid series by his standards, I just think his high scoring and assist numbers tend to overstate his real offensive impact. This doesn't even mention the fact that he's a relatively poor shooter. I know he's made some improvements the past few years, but teams also welcome him 3s and long 2s.

Seemed like during the regular season most were saying Jokic>Giannis, and now it's the opposite? What changed considering Jokic was also better in the postseason?

I think there are a couple issues with this post with respect to the peak ranking of those players.

1) You bring up the peak project but then use data from Giannis' 2022 season when the peaks project ranks Giannis' 2021 season.
– Note: the 2022 POY voting had Jokic #1, Giannis #3. So Jokic was ranked ahead for the seasons you compare here, there was no flip.
2) You point to ‘a bunch of good defenders’ in MIL when that really wasn't the case in 2022 anymore.
3) You ignore, for some reason, that the concerns about Jokic' defense are mostly playoff-related and not RS-related.
4) In this regard, you point to how the Warriors could not stop Jokic (true) but failed to mentioned that he had a miserable 125.4 on-court DRTG.
5) Meanwhile, Giannis on-court DRTG in the entire playoffs was absolutely elite (as was his on-off net rating, by the way).
6) Also, while Jokic feasted vs. the Warriors, his on-court ORTG was actually only a pedestrian 110.9 (122.4 off-court ORTG).

So I think you should reflect on your objectivity in evaluating these two players. Certainly in presenting the cases you should strive to be more balanced (if you want an open discussion) and as a starting point, you should...
... compare 2021 Giannis to 2022 Jokic considering that the peaks project seemingly sparked this thread.
... focus a lot more on the defensive side because this is what much of the argument for Giannis revolves around.
... evaluate playoff series honestly and consistently, e.g. use on-court DRTG/ORTG and do not do it selectively.

The way the argument is structured right now feels strongly biased with cherry-picked foci (e.g. pointing to the Bucks' offensive struggles versus the Celtics but not to the Nuggets' defensive struggles versus the Warriors, focusing on the playoff offense for the Bucks but then on the regular season defense for the Nuggets-Bucks comparison, not using 2021 Giannis in the comparison with 2022 Jokic etc.).

[f4p]

giannis having a 51.6 TS% and the bucks having a 101.7 ORtg against the celtics compared to 64.3% and 114.7 for the nuggets against a similar level defense should certainly bring into question what giannis can do offensively as much as jokic defensively.

[Peregrine01]

6) Also, while Jokic feasted vs. the Warriors, his on-court ORTG was actually only a pedestrian 110.9 (122.4 off-court ORTG).

The issue with using on/off ORTG/DRTG in the playoffs is because it's heavily match-up based. Jokic was going up against Looney and Draymond while his back-up Cousins was feasting against Bjelica and Porter. And on offense, Kerr made sure to match Steph's minutes as much as possible with Jokic's so that constant high pick and rolls would tire him out.

Single playoff series also tend to be subject to a lot of variance, both good and bad. A good part of the Warriors' ridiculous ORTG was because Poole looked like the best Warriors player for a good stretch of that series and shot over 50% on pull-up 3s - something that he probably never has repeated in his career.

In any case, I thought what Jokic did on offense against the Warriors was a good deal more impressive than what Giannis did on offense against the Bucks.

[MyUniBroDavis]

6) Also, while Jokic feasted vs. the Warriors, his on-court ORTG was actually only a pedestrian 110.9 (122.4 off-court ORTG).

The issue with using on/off ORTG/DRTG in the playoffs is because it's heavily match-up based. Jokic was going up against Looney and Draymond while his back-up Cousins was feasting against Bjelica and Porter. And on offense, Kerr made sure to match Steph's minutes as much as possible with Jokic's so that constant high pick and rolls would tire him out.

Single playoff series also tend to be subject to a lot of variance, both good and bad. A good part of the Warriors' ridiculous ORTG was because Poole looked like the best Warriors player for a good stretch of that series and shot over 50% on pull-up 3s - something that he probably never has repeated in his career.

In any case, I thought what Jokic did on offense against the Warriors was a good deal more impressive than what Giannis did on offense against the Bucks.

I think it would be one thing if this was the only time Jokic’s defense looked really bad in the playoffs, but if we’re going by on-off splits he’s been pretty horrendous since (and including) the bubble

[MyUniBroDavis]

giannis having a 51.6 TS% and the bucks having a 101.7 ORtg against the celtics compared to 64.3% and 114.7 for the nuggets against a similar level defense should certainly bring into question what giannis can do offensively as much as jokic defensively.

I think the Celtics were substantially better equipped to guard the bucks than the warriors were to guard Jokic lol

In any case if we’re talking about off and def rtg, we’re comparing a 7 game series where giannis’s on-off was +37.6 vs a 5 game series where jokic’s was -22.0

I don’t think that giannis didn’t elevate his teams offense = Jokic bringing his teams defense down by as much as he did

I don’t think the raw results are fair to him, and he’s probably gonna be fine in another long run, but if going forward legitimately as much of an issue in the playoffs defensively then we’re talking about someone that might be the best offensive player and worst defensive playoff rotation player in the nba simultaneously. It’s one thing to be a big negative on defense, it’s another thing for the team to basically in 5/6 of the last series playing at the level of an outlier level all time worst defense in nba history

His regular season improvements were tangible but I think it’s not something that can be handwaved away, although I think he’ll be fine

[The-Power]

6) Also, while Jokic feasted vs. the Warriors, his on-court ORTG was actually only a pedestrian 110.9 (122.4 off-court ORTG).

The issue with using on/off ORTG/DRTG in the playoffs is because it's heavily match-up based. Jokic was going up against Looney and Draymond while his back-up Cousins was feasting against Bjelica and Porter. And on offense, Kerr made sure to match Steph's minutes as much as possible with Jokic's so that constant high pick and rolls would tire him out.

Single playoff series also tend to be subject to a lot of variance, both good and bad. A good part of the Warriors' ridiculous ORTG was because Poole looked like the best Warriors player for a good stretch of that series and shot over 50% on pull-up 3s - something that he probably never has repeated in his career.

Yes, it's a small sample and match-up dependent. But the OP brings up individual series and that needs to be consistent. You can't have it both ways: look at individual series numbers when it suits your point, and neglect them or explain them away when it doesn't.

Also, the exact numbers may not be repeatable but Poole also lit up the Mavericks in the WCF and in March, he scored 25.5 PPG on 65.4% TS and 44% from 3 on 151 3PA in 16 games. It's therefore not far-fetched to assume that Poole can torch porous defenses – like that Denver playoff defense – on a regular basis. He absolutely lit up the Nuggets in the three RS games as well (23/6 on 75% TS, 61% on 3s (14/23)).

[McBubbles]

Bump

[OhayoKD]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

[70sFan]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

That's a fair analysis, though I still fail to understand how people still can pretend like Giannis didn't play with talented rosters and very good coach throughout his prime.

[Doctor MJ]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

Hmm, so first:

1. Let me first acknowledge that this is a bumped thread and so we need to be careful getting into debates even with the new posts.

2. Jokic is a historic outlier, and it is showing up in the statistics. Not saying this as a knock on Giannis, but we've clearly never seen anyone all that similar to Jokic.

3. I'm not going to say folks are crazy for continuing to side with Giannis. Time will tell how it all plays out.

But with all that said, I have a tough time with the whole "he had worse coaches" thing when:

1. He's far less smart on the court than the other guy.
2. He pulled the "I want this coach!" card and made things worse.

Beyond that, the idea that Jokic has had more help than Giannis just doesn't add up to me. Only one of these guys has had the luxury of regularly playing with all-star level players for years, and it's not Jokic.

[penbeast0]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

Do you have to use the obnoxious "made-up numbers" comment? No one is making up numbers, they are using actual numbers, they just may interpret them differently than you do.

[penbeast0]

...It's therefore not far-fetched to assume that Poole can torch porous defenses – like that Denver playoff defense – on a regular basis. He absolutely lit up the Nuggets in the three RS games as well (23/6 on 75% TS, 61% on 3s (14/23)).

From your mouth to God's ear. The only one he's torched this year with any consistency is his own team with his poor decision making and porous (to be polite) defense his own self.

[AEnigma]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

Do you have to use the obnoxious "made-up numbers" comment? No one is making up numbers, they are using actual numbers, they just may interpret them differently than you do.

Guessing the reference here is to PER, WinShares, and BPM, which quite literally are invented numbers.

[The-Power]

...It's therefore not far-fetched to assume that Poole can torch porous defenses – like that Denver playoff defense – on a regular basis. He absolutely lit up the Nuggets in the three RS games as well (23/6 on 75% TS, 61% on 3s (14/23)).

From your mouth to God's ear. The only one he's torched this year with any consistency is his own team with his poor decision making and porous (to be polite) defense his own self.

Not far-fetched to assume but clearly wrong so far, no doubt about that. Not sure what's wrong with Poole but it's not been pretty.

[Djoker]

It's not a massive gap or anything but for me 2023 Jokic is a step above any version of Giannis. Just the offensive mastery combined with effective defense makes it tough to pick Giannis who is a somewhat flawed offensive player.