1994 Robinson Playoff Film Analysis Goals/Expectations going in:
-Offense: the biggest counter people cite against Robinson an offensive decline. I'm hoping to identify causes / trends
-Defense: Robinson's clearly the best remaining defender in this tier, by a wide margin.
[Qualifier: I haven't gotten the chance to do the 4th Quarter yet, but here's initial film analysis for 1994 David Robinson, Game 4 vs Utah Jazz. I'll be editing in clearer notes, a more comprehensive summary, and 4th quarter observations when I get the chance. ]
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0:20 Offense
good quick pass off the double, gets teammate open shot, but miss.
0:35 defense
Good double to prevent middle penetration, recovers quickly, strips opponents but fouls. Couldn’t see hands well enough to tell where his hands were on the foul
1:33 O
They double without the ball, good off-ball effort. Pass to Robinson, double him again, and he hits open man quickly. Open man passes back to Robinson, who hits a different open man, who hits the 3.
Notice how many doubles they send (multiple in one possession), and how terrible the spacing is for Robinson (2 extra defenders sagging into lane). You could argue the pass at 1:47 could come a split second earlier, but Robinson has shown 3 times over the past 2 possessions to be a quick and willing passer.
2:05 D
Helps on a drive and deters a shot. Then gets rebound.
-Compared to Giannis’ film analysis in the Greatest Peaks thread, notice how when Robinson is resting off-ball, he’s a rim deterrent. While when Giannis is resting off ball, he’s far from the rim. You could argue this is era-dependent, but regardless, Robinson’s passive off-ball presence seems to be a greater deterrent than Giannis’.
3:35 D
Loses his man off-ball but recovers, fouls on the layup. If you watch the replay, Robinson’s hands are clearly in good position when the actual shot releases, but maybe they’re calling the left hand at the very start of the shot motion. Maybe
4:18 O
Off ball screen, it isn’t the best screen but the Spurs player still gets open. Robinson then gets called rebounding foul.
5:33 O
Pick and roll, Robinson sets a good screen that gets his man inner position on the drive. Teammate misses rim attempt
5:48 D
Good defense, forces the opponent to reset the shot midair, but the opponent makes it anyway.
5:59 O
Once again they double robinson, once again he hits open man, and for the third time rather than taking the open 3 (or missing the open shot) the once-open perimeter player passes back to Robinson. Robinson drives, you could argue he should hit #24 with the pass if 24 were a good shooter, but instead it’s a rim attempt that gets blocked
6:15 D
Smaller defender has a mismatch so Robinson gets position to prevent the inside pass. Malone is open and could drive to the rim, but Robinson’s presence deters him into a midrange jumper that misses. Even when Robinson’s slower than you might want to rotate back to the open man after help defense, his presence alone still makes the shot harder
6:30 O
Robinson again sets a great pick and roll screen, gets his teammate in great position on the drive, which ends up with an open 3 shot, that misses.
7:15 D
Good rebound, quick pass to start transition
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13:40 O
Robinson spins baseline and hits fadeaway. Similar play to Giannis’ film analysis, except Robinson makes the shot.
14:00 D
Active off-ball defense to prevent entry pass multiple times
…
18:15 O
Robinson again doubled on entry pass (4th or 5th time?), drives and hits shot.
19:20 D
Karl Malone’s defender just falls over, Robinson rotates, great rim protection forces Malone to miss
19:55 O
Robinson makes entry pass, active off ball to get rebounding position
20:10 D
Good off ball rim deterrence to force the pass, gets the rotation and great rim protection to force the miss… but teammate fouls.
21:09 O
Doubled yet again off entry pass. Close but misses. I’d definitely rather the kickouot pass, though we’ve seen Robinson’s teammates not take the available open 3 multiple times.
22:41 O
Doubled on entry pass, immediate tap pass out, leads to an open 3 opportunity then a made midrange off drive.
23:10 D
Gets rebound, but not contested
26:16 O
Bad off ball screen, okay pick and roll acreen. Entry pass, doubled, tries to score thrnover
30:45 O
Lucky/good position to get the turnover. Then good off ball movement to get a foul.
31:50 d
What is this camera movement lol. Can’t really see, but it looks like Robinson contestests a made Malone shot
32:15 O
great off ball movement, gets entry pass, passes out of triple which leads to a made spurs shot.
32:42 d
Good double to protect the rim, but made shot
33:10 o
Active off ball, good iso, close but misses. However, 4 defenders have collapsed into lane, which helps opens up the rebound. Robinson pick n roll, screen is rejected but it breaks down the defense (credit guard), leads to made spurs 3
32:57 O
Quick shot at free throw like shows Robinson’s midrange. (Not sure what the commentators are talking about, this was neither Dale Ellis shooting or a 3)
34:10 D
Good help on Stockton after Stockton loses his defender prevents the open shot. Stockton passes, Rodman helps, and gets a clean block but called for the foul and a flagrant for the shove after
36:45 D
Helps Rodman on guarding Malone but Malone makes
38:10 O
Triple teamed off entry pass, they foul him.
39:38 o
Good off ball movement, entry pass to iso, they double him, Robinson makes it
40:11 d
Robinson help defense at the rim leads to miss
40:40 O
Good offensive rebound tip almost gets team another possession
40:45 D
Good defense on first attempt, leads to miss. But Malone makes second shot
41:55 O
Doubled on entry pass. Leads to open 3, then drive, then miss.
42:10 d
rebound
42:40 D
Good pressure to prevent pick and roll drive. Could have been in better rebounding position
43:10 O
Wiling passer to off-ball movers, but the off-ball movement doesn’t really lead to anything
43:25 D
Intimidation, steps up to prevent the drive. But because his teammate lost track of his defensive assignment,, Jazz get a good shot
44:55 O
Active off ball. triple teamed off ball but misses
47:05 O
Perhaps the first possession they don’t immediately double Robinson on the entry pass. The double comes late, but Robinson with a good spin move into a made shot.
48:12 O
The first entry pass post-up where Robinson isn’t doubled comes with ~2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Robinson posts up Malone and makes it off another spin move
48:30 D
offensive foul
49:35 O
Pick and roll, Robinson’s great screen and great guard speed creates a ton of space. Defense breaks down, Spurs make the tip in. This kind of play as a screener and roll-man is why I think Robinson would play so much better with a better guard who could shoot off Robinson’s doubles / PnR drive / pass to Robinson as a roll man
50:00 D
Contests the layup pass, pass gets in the right area but it’s a
50:10 O
Pick and roll, Robinson gets pass, Robinson stripped to Rodman but rodman falls out of bounds
…
4th quarter [to be added later]
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Offensive Summary (to be expanded later):
Robinson faced immediate double teams on about 85% of all tracked entry passes, and faced eventual double teams on 92% of all possessions with entry passes.
Robinson passed on half these entry-pass doubles, and attempted to score on the other half. In these possessions,
Robinson shot 43% eFG% against doubles while his teammates shot 50% on wide open shots. In one case his teammate actually rejected the open look and immediately passed back to Robinson
while he was still doubled.Additional context: Now you might critique Robinson for not passing more (I do). But he increased his scoring frequency on doubles later in the game after his teammates had missed a number of open looks and even rejected taking open shots. This is sort of like a micro-version of the 06 Kobe approach, increasing iso scoring attempts when teammates miss or reject open shots. It's not the kind of play you'd want with good teammates, but if a player shows a clear willingness to be a passer / facilitator / off-ball player with better teammates (which Robinson clearly has), their slightly selfish shooting alongside poor non-championship-quality teammates isn't too much of a concern, at least to me.
Pick and rolls: The Spurs went to the entry pass (which the Jazz doubled) for 54% of the offensive plays where Robinson was active. Another 21% was on the pick and roll, where the Spurs had 1.0 Points per possession on these plays (50% eFG%). The majority of the misses were either wide open or rejected open shots in favor of contested shots that missed.
Other offensive plays: The remaining 25% of offensive plays where Robinson was active involved Robinson as a passer at the top, successful Robinson isos, offensive rebounding, and good off-ball play (either setting screens or fighting for inner position).
In sum: The biggest critique against Robinson is declining playoff offense, specifically scoring.
I think it’s reasonable for any big man to have worse scoring numbers if they’re doubled on 92% of possessions they get an empty pass. I often cite his poor teammates as the cause of Robinson’s poor play: the film study supports this. Shooting 50% eFG% on wide open shots created by Robinson double-teams or Robinson pick and rolls is simply not acceptable in playoff-quality teammates.
As discussed in a previous thread (link to be added later), Robinson already has Top 15 Regular Season peak numbers. When Robinson was given better teammates and a better fit, he has Top 15/20 Playoff-only numbers (in admittedly a smaller role/sample). He’s clearly the best defensive player of the remaining peaks [in this tier], by some margin. The biggest concern is declining playoff numbers, specifically scoring, but to me the film analysis paints a pretty clear picture that Robinson’s teammates are the primary culprits of the Spurs’ decline.
[I hope to update this for the 4th quarter and add defensive comments later. feel free to add your own film analysis to this too!
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