Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 - 2016-17 Kevin Durant

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#41 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 3:31 am

SickMother wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Of those names, Allen and Ginobili certainly won’t make it. Westbrook definitely deserves a spot somewhere. He has a clear top 40 peak imo, I know the board has gotten sour on him in recent years but it seems unjustifiable someone with his sort of statistical dominance doesn’t make it. His PER is 22nd all time of single seasons, and BPM 15th. They basically had to alter the BPM formula because they apparently didn’t like how good it made Westbrook look, he if memory serves me right had the record there after the 2017 season. Most of us are smart enough to not vote strictly on those sort of numbers, but if people are going to cast votes for guys like Karl Malone or Walt Frazier over him i don’t even want to hear it.


Main thing holding back Russ for me is he never got out of the first round in OKC once Durant left. Same thing with T-Mac. If your peak is a first round exit, I'm not sure that is a Top 40 peak.

I'd actually have 15-16 as Westbrook's peak over 16-17, because I think pretty much every player (& maybe especially Russ) is at their peak when playing with complimentary players who can accentuate their strengths & obscure their weaknesses versus when they are trying to do everything by themselves.

As for the other guys you mentioned, Allen was referee shenanigans away from leading the Bucks to the 2001 Finals. 118 TS+ and 272 TS Add in the regular season & maintained that level of scoring efficiency through the playoffs while posting a +25.0 On/Off.

04-05 Ginobli was crazy impactful for a Championship squad, +17.2 RS and +19.9 POs. Jacked his TS% from an already elite .609 in the regular season to .652 in the postseason.

Frazier is the pretty much the opposite of Westbrook - a hyper efficient scorer who plays defense at a top notch level and helmed multiple Championship teams. Flashier outfits too.

Mailman is another guy who kills Russ on the defensive end, scores far more efficiently, and for as much as his game shrunk in the postseason still managed more playoff resilience than Russ. Karl posted pretty monster O/Os in both the 96-97 (+21.7 RS | +26.6 PO) and 97-98 (+17.4 RS | +13.2 PO) Jazz Finals runs with Stockton (-2.8 in 96-97 | -2.4 in 97-98) suffering the real playoff shrinkage for Utah.

That's just my line of thinking. If the handful of other participants on an obscure internet forum have a different line of thinking & my personal picks don't make the final cut, no big whoop. I'm fine with hearing it, though. I kinda thought that was the point, to share different perspectives & maybe even emerge from the whole thing with a deeper understanding?

Great comment. “I don’t even want to hear it” is a baffling response to a stance that really has no reason to be seen as that hot a take. Westbrook’s 2017 is an all-time floor-raising season, but his style of play has severe diminishing returns. The ability to dominate the boxscore is not a replacement for the high-level basketball intelligence we see in other superstars who have either clearly demonstrated they can be the best player on a championship team or otherwise shown themselves to be a more natural and welcome co-star.

Is what Westbrook did for the 2017 Thunder that much more impressive than what a slightly diminished Penny did for the 1997 Magic? And no one really thought Penny was better than Karl Malone that year. As for Frazier? Well, no mystery to how Frazier performed in the absence of key teammates either…
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#42 » by falcolombardi » Sun Sep 4, 2022 3:39 am

AEnigma wrote:
SickMother wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Of those names, Allen and Ginobili certainly won’t make it. Westbrook definitely deserves a spot somewhere. He has a clear top 40 peak imo, I know the board has gotten sour on him in recent years but it seems unjustifiable someone with his sort of statistical dominance doesn’t make it. His PER is 22nd all time of single seasons, and BPM 15th. They basically had to alter the BPM formula because they apparently didn’t like how good it made Westbrook look, he if memory serves me right had the record there after the 2017 season. Most of us are smart enough to not vote strictly on those sort of numbers, but if people are going to cast votes for guys like Karl Malone or Walt Frazier over him i don’t even want to hear it.


Main thing holding back Russ for me is he never got out of the first round in OKC once Durant left. Same thing with T-Mac. If your peak is a first round exit, I'm not sure that is a Top 40 peak.

I'd actually have 15-16 as Westbrook's peak over 16-17, because I think pretty much every player (& maybe especially Russ) is at their peak when playing with complimentary players who can accentuate their strengths & obscure their weaknesses versus when they are trying to do everything by themselves.

As for the other guys you mentioned, Allen was referee shenanigans away from leading the Bucks to the 2001 Finals. 118 TS+ and 272 TS Add in the regular season & maintained that level of scoring efficiency through the playoffs while posting a +25.0 On/Off.

04-05 Ginobli was crazy impactful for a Championship squad, +17.2 RS and +19.9 POs. Jacked his TS% from an already elite .609 in the regular season to .652 in the postseason.

Frazier is the pretty much the opposite of Westbrook - a hyper efficient scorer who plays defense at a top notch level and helmed multiple Championship teams. Flashier outfits too.

Mailman is another guy who kills Russ on the defensive end, scores far more efficiently, and for as much as his game shrunk in the postseason still managed more playoff resilience than Russ. Karl posted pretty monster O/Os in both the 96-97 (+21.7 RS | +26.6 PO) and 97-98 (+17.4 RS | +13.2 PO) Jazz Finals runs with Stockton (-2.8 in 96-97 | -2.4 in 97-98) suffering the real playoff shrinkage for Utah.

That's just my line of thinking. If the handful of other participants on an obscure internet forum have a different line of thinking & my personal picks don't make the final cut, no big whoop. I'm fine with hearing it, though. I kinda thought that was the point, to share different perspectives & maybe even emerge from the whole thing with a deeper understanding?

Great comment. “I don’t even want to hear it” is a baffling response to a stance that really has no reason to be seen as that hot a take. Westbrook’s 2017 is an all-time floor-raising season, but his style of play has severe diminishing returns. The ability to dominate the boxscore is not a replacement for the high-level basketball intelligence we see in other superstars who have either clearly demonstrated they can be the best player on a championship team or otherwise shown themselves to be a more natural and welcome co-star.

Is what Westbrook did for the 2017 Thunder that much more impressive than what a slightly diminished Penny did for the 1997 Magic? And no one really thought Penny was better than Karl Malone that year. As for Frazier? Well, no mystery to how Frazier performed in the absence of key teammates either…


Then we can use 2016 westbrook instead of 2017. Didnt have a outlier (for him) 3 point shooting year like in 2017 but was more efficient and co led what
-going of ben taylor data- a +8 offense at full health
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#43 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 4:12 am

I mean I literally just went over how Paul/Griffin in their best year also managed to be a monumental offence, and Griffin is not really factoring into this project (although he is good). Shaq/Penny were a +10 offence when healthy. Frazier is not offering the same on offence, but he was the co-leader of an 8-SRS championship team, and it is tough for me to see him averaging 45% efficiency while also getting torched by the opposing guard.

If your point is that Westbrook’s approach worked fine in the regular season, sure. I care that it became a lot uglier in the postseason. Some might take the stance that, well, the Thunder’s postseason opposition was ludicrous. Reasonable claim, but the people we are talking about faced Jordan’s Bulls and the Wilt/West Lakers, so I think pointing out the postseason limitations remains fair play. Not going to condemn anyone for voting Westbrook — I kind-of appreciate the one Westbrook ballot so far in its overall approach — but there is no justification to say the case for other players is not worth hearing.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#44 » by falcolombardi » Sun Sep 4, 2022 4:20 am

AEnigma wrote:I mean I literally just went over how Paul/Griffin in their best year also managed to be a monumental offence, and Griffin is not really factoring into this project (although he is good). Shaq/Penny were a +10 offence when healthy. Frazier is not offering the same on offence, but he was the co-leader of an 8-SRS championship team, and it is tough for me to see him averaging 45% efficiency while also getting torched by the opposing guard.

If your point is that Westbrook’s approach worked fine in the regular season, sure. I care that it became a lot uglier in the postseason. Some might take the stance that, well, the Thunder’s postseason opposition was ludicrous. Reasonable claim, but the people we are talking about faced Jordan’s Bulls and the Wilt/West Lakers, so I think pointing out the postseason limitations remains fair play. Not going to condemn anyone for voting Westbrook — I kind-of appreciate the one Westbrook ballot so far in its overall approach — but there is no justification to say the case for other players is not worth hearing.


Not trying to suggest that at all, even as a westbrook/okc fan i am not even sure i will have him in my top 40 peaks ( i may but i am not sure he is a guarantee there)

Just pointing out that if 2017 issue is that it was flooraising a bad team to mediocrity we can just use 2016 instead. When okc was legitimely a monster team that went toe to toe with two different 9~10 srs teams

That 16' team was far from a postseason paper tiger

And westbrook was as much a part of that as durant for that team
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#45 » by iggymcfrack » Sun Sep 4, 2022 5:30 am

AEnigma wrote:
SickMother wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Is what Westbrook did for the 2017 Thunder that much more impressive than what a slightly diminished Penny did for the 1997 Magic? And no one really thought Penny was better than Karl Malone that year. As for Frazier? Well, no mystery to how Frazier performed in the absence of key teammates either…


2017 Westbrook:
32/11/10 on .554 TS%, 30.6 PER, 11.1 BPM, +12.5 on/off, 81 games played (reg season)
37/12/11 on .511 TS%, 27.7 PER, 9.8 BPM, +62.8 on/off, 5 games played (postseason)

1997 Hardaway:
21/5/6 on .554 TS%, 21.4 PER, 4.9 BPM, +13.3 on/off, 59 games played (reg season)
31/6/3 on .575 TS%, 29.9 PER, 11.9 BPM, +22.2 on/off, 5 games played (postseason)

Yes, I'd say what Westbrook did is more impressive. A lot more impressive. They're only comparable during the small 5 game sample of the playoffs. If you want a comparable season for 2017 Westbrook, I'd say 1987 Jordan is probably the best you're gonna find. Unprecedented numbers. Slight efficiency dip in the playoffs against a superior opponent, but ultimately carried the team as far as they could possibly go. I feel like Westbrook's getting colored here by what happened later in his career when he lost his explosiveness and stamina, but in 2017 specifically, he was playing at an all-time level.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#46 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 9:46 am

falcolombardi wrote:
AEnigma wrote:I mean I literally just went over how Paul/Griffin in their best year also managed to be a monumental offence, and Griffin is not really factoring into this project (although he is good). Shaq/Penny were a +10 offence when healthy. Frazier is not offering the same on offence, but he was the co-leader of an 8-SRS championship team, and it is tough for me to see him averaging 45% efficiency while also getting torched by the opposing guard.

If your point is that Westbrook’s approach worked fine in the regular season, sure. I care that it became a lot uglier in the postseason. Some might take the stance that, well, the Thunder’s postseason opposition was ludicrous. Reasonable claim, but the people we are talking about faced Jordan’s Bulls and the Wilt/West Lakers, so I think pointing out the postseason limitations remains fair play. Not going to condemn anyone for voting Westbrook — I kind-of appreciate the one Westbrook ballot so far in its overall approach — but there is no justification to say the case for other players is not worth hearing.

Not trying to suggest that at all, even as a westbrook/okc fan i am not even sure i will have him in my top 40 peaks ( i may but i am not sure he is a guarantee there)

Just pointing out that if 2017 issue is that it was flooraising a bad team to mediocrity we can just use 2016 instead. When okc was legitimely a monster team that went toe to toe with two different 9~10 srs teams

All of which I said.

That 16' team was far from a postseason paper tiger

And westbrook was as much a part of that as durant for that team

You can not be a “paper tiger” and still be kind-of over your head. Again, I do not feel Westbrook’s style lends itself overly well to the postseason, even if the team as a collective still performed respectably anyway.

iggymcfrack wrote:> 2017 Westbrook:
32/11/10 on .554 TS%, 30.6 PER, 11.1 BPM, +12.5 on/off, 81 games played (reg season)
37/12/11 on .511 TS%, 27.7 PER, 9.8 BPM, +62.8 on/off, 5 games played (postseason)

1997 Hardaway:
21/5/6 on .554 TS%, 21.4 PER, 4.9 BPM, +13.3 on/off, 59 games played (reg season)
31/6/3 on .575 TS%, 29.9 PER, 11.9 BPM, +22.2 on/off, 5 games played (postseason)

Yes, I'd say what Westbrook did is more impressive. A lot more impressive. They're only comparable during the small 5 game sample of the playoffs. If you want a comparable season for 2017 Westbrook, I'd say 1987 Jordan is probably the best you're gonna find. Unprecedented numbers. Slight efficiency dip in the playoffs against a superior opponent, but ultimately carried the team as far as they could possibly go. I feel like Westbrook's getting colored here by what happened later in his career when he lost his explosiveness and stamina, but in 2017 specifically, he was playing at an all-time level.

Are people ever going to get tired of quoting box stats at me? Okay, literally speaking, yeah I would not say 1997 Penny is a better season (missed games the main killer), but that was a clear step down for Penny and the results both on-court and off were still nearly identical. Westbrook was basically the same exact player in 2018 as he was in 2017, except his volume dropped back down to normal levels to accommodate George and Carmelo (the latter ill-advisedly), his fluke distant shooting success vanished, and he could no longer get in rhythm on free throws. Why do we need to reward players for context-dependent spikes in volume? Like Falco said, his 2016 season has just as fine a case as 2017, but of course then we lose the volume.

I do not care too much for 1987 Jordan either, for the record, but there at least he was playing a complementary role next to a point guard and offering good defence to a roster with a bottom bench, and that all could (and did) comfortably scale up. And on that note, why would I not prefer Paul George (for this project, 2019 specifically) to a Russell Westbrook type of player if I were trying to win a title? Looking at what George has done throughout his career, I feel like that skillset is a lot easier to build around…
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#47 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sun Sep 4, 2022 10:36 am

AEnigma wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Tagging you just because your guy finally has enough support that he should be admitted in the next couple of ballots if you want to resume voting. :lol:

falcolombardi wrote:
Proxy wrote:Leaning McGrady or Nash next, with probably some mix of Frazier, Moses, Karl, Barkley, Ewing, Mourning(need to think on this one), and Embiid after. Penny, Dwight, Harden, and Luka also in mind but I doubt I vote them in before anyone from that first group rn. We'll see.

What about mutombo, reggie, pippen? I think pippen and dikembe are not getting enough attention as potential top 35~ guys

Dikembe is just an odd call unless we hyper-focus on raw team value, in which case we also need to be talking about Gobert (who probably has a better case than Dikembe but for playing in an more adverse era), Draymond, Vlade… If we really want to award defence like that, Thurmond might be an easier sell, because I do not think it is an absolute given he is necessarily below his contemporary Reed apart from not having the more attractive offensive game and an all-time cast to support long playoff runs.

Pippen and Reggie are easier sells. Two of the best perimetre players of the 1990s and compare positively to some of the best perimetre players of the 2000s (Metta Artest for Pippen, Ray Allen for Reggie). Both have decent cases for themselves, but Proxy is right that forty players is a tight number comparatively (and unlike Proxy I think I prefer Pippen to someone like Hill) even before remembering that pretty much no one gets their entire personal top forty onto the list. You are not getting him in before Barry. Pettit will have committed supporters. Luka will likely get attention first, and although few of us are mentioning him, I also expect Westbrook is an eventual guarantee. Bigs tend to be prioritised, and Proxy listed many great ones; the most similar to Pippen is Dave Cowens, who has not been close since 2012, and are you certain Pippen wins that comparison? Even focusing on positional rivals, Speaking for myself, I think I personally prefer Penny as a contemporary (peaked at the same time and offered similar value, but I think Penny maintained better in the postseason than Pippen and could just offer a lot more than Reggie), and I would heavily consider 2019 Paul George against them as well. It is a case you are welcome to make, and I actually think both would be pretty entertaining inclusions in how badly they would aggrieve some people, but definitely seems like a challenging argument.

That all said, perhaps this would be a good time to point out that the reason past projects always end around forty players is because voters burn out by that time. If we still have consistent eight to ten person participation by then, maybe LA Bird would be willing to push for fifty. ;-)



I might have Durant next act thinking about it lmao

2020 AD is weird to evaluate because his postseason peak was like, potentially top 10 material at least in level of play, but it’s pretty clearly not him going playoff mode as much as that + him being mega hot
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#48 » by No-more-rings » Sun Sep 4, 2022 3:10 pm

AEnigma wrote:Great comment. “I don’t even want to hear it” is a baffling response to a stance that really has no reason to be seen as that hot a take. Westbrook’s 2017 is an all-time floor-raising season, but his style of play has severe diminishing returns. The ability to dominate the boxscore is not a replacement for the high-level basketball intelligence we see in other superstars who have either clearly demonstrated they can be the best player on a championship team or otherwise shown themselves to be a more natural and welcome co-star.


Even a "diminished" returns version of Westbrook whatever that even means, was still having legit superstar top 5 in the league caliber type impact. So don't know what this is supposed to mean, that I should take 04 Billups over peak Westbrook? What about 2011 Kidd since his "intelligence" likely had as much impact Westbrook's box scores :noway:.

AEnigma wrote:Is what Westbrook did for the 2017 Thunder that much more impressive than what a slightly diminished Penny did for the 1997 Magic? And no one really thought Penny was better than Karl Malone that year. As for Frazier? Well, no mystery to how Frazier performed in the absence of key teammates either…


1997 Penny, seriously? Are you trolling with this? The Magic who had negative SRS, that one?

AEnigma wrote:All of which I said.

That 16' team was far from a postseason paper tiger

And westbrook was as much a part of that as durant for that team
You can not be a “paper tiger” and still be kind-of over your head. Again, I do not feel Westbrook’s style lends itself overly well to the postseason, even if the team as a collective still performed respectably anyway.

So if his floor raising is elite and his ability to play as a 1b type guy on an elite team then what is the problem exactly? Like what more do you want? I guess co-leading a 7+ SRS team who nearly knocked out the 73 win warriors ain't worth a lick. Strangely only KD gets credit for that these days, even though roughly half the board thought Westbrook was actually better than him that season.

Like seriously, how far are we going to go with this sort of thinking? Are we going to start putting guys like Klay Thompson over peak Westbrook, since his shooting allows for more flexibility or something?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#49 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 4:16 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Great comment. “I don’t even want to hear it” is a baffling response to a stance that really has no reason to be seen as that hot a take. Westbrook’s 2017 is an all-time floor-raising season, but his style of play has severe diminishing returns. The ability to dominate the boxscore is not a replacement for the high-level basketball intelligence we see in other superstars who have either clearly demonstrated they can be the best player on a championship team or otherwise shown themselves to be a more natural and welcome co-star.

Even a "diminished" returns version of Westbrook whatever that even means,

You know what it means. The observation that Westbrook scales poorly alongside other stars relative to how he can produce in a 2015/17 scenario is not a concept you somehow avoided in all your years here.

was still having legit superstar top 5 in the league caliber type impact.

Do you think Karl Malone and Walt Frazier and Penny Hardaway were not.

So don't know what this is supposed to mean, that I should take 04 Billups over peak Westbrook?

If you think 2004 Billups contributes more to winning a title, sure. I do not, but I am willing to hear arguments people care to make.

What about 2011 Kidd since his "intelligence" likely had as much impact Westbrook's box scores :noway:

Eight years past his peak, that would be quite the uphill climb. 2003 Kidd is a more interesting question, but I do suspect that much like Draymond his scoring inadequacies would end up being limiting on most rosters, and unlike Draymond he cannot provide all-time defensive anchoring.

AEnigma wrote:Is what Westbrook did for the 2017 Thunder that much more impressive than what a slightly diminished Penny did for the 1997 Magic? And no one really thought Penny was better than Karl Malone that year. As for Frazier? Well, no mystery to how Frazier performed in the absence of key teammates either…

1997 Penny, seriously? Are you trolling with this? The Magic who had negative SRS, that one?

Yes I am trolling you, the Magic had an unforgivable -0.07 SRS while the 2017 Thunder had a dominant +1.14 SRS, so obviously there is no comparison.

Totally unrelated question: how did the Magic perform with Penny compared to how the Thunder performed with Westbrook, and how many games did Penny miss that season.

AEnigma wrote:All of which I said.

That 16' team was far from a postseason paper tiger

And westbrook was as much a part of that as durant for that team
You can not be a “paper tiger” and still be kind-of over your head. Again, I do not feel Westbrook’s style lends itself overly well to the postseason, even if the team as a collective still performed respectably anyway.

So if his floor raising is elite and his ability to play as a 1b type guy on an elite team then what is the problem exactly? Like what more do you want? I guess co-leading a 7+ SRS team who nearly knocked out the 73 win warriors ain't worth a lick. Strangely only KD gets credit for that these days, even though roughly half the board thought Westbrook was actually better than him that season.

Getting a lot of f4p déjà vu here. Ignoring how this does not function as a response to the comparison with peak Penny, Frazier, or Karl Malone, why should I care about the conflation of a postseason “impact” edge for Westbrook with superior quality or ability.

Like seriously, how far are we going to go with this sort of thinking? Are we going to start putting guys like Klay Thompson over peak Westbrook, since his shooting allows for more flexibility or something?

Wrong teammate. 8-)
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#50 » by No-more-rings » Sun Sep 4, 2022 6:43 pm

AEnigma wrote:You know what it means. The observation that Westbrook scales poorly alongside other stars relative to how he can produce in a 2015/17 scenario is not a concept you somehow avoided in all your years here.


What evidence is there that he scales poorly?

2013: 2nd option to Durant- 60 wins staggering 9.15 SRS
2014: Injuries, I don't know where/how to determine their level of play when Westbrook and Durant were both playing, but I doubt it's any worse than 2013
2016: Already covered it

Those years both were healthy, they lost a tough 6 game series to the Champion Spurs and tough 7 game series to 73 win GSW. Durant struggled in both of those series btw. Not sure where you're getting the idea that their regular season success doesn't translate as well to the playoffs. Is Westbrook a perfect player? No. He has flaws like anyone else, but for some reason these days I guess we're just supposed to pretend that he didn't contribute to high level winning basketball in OKC and that he didn't have great success even though he falled short of a title. If we're going to make it this big deal that he failed to win a championship, then why are we discussing Cp3 and Nash so high up? Those guys didn't do any better in a secondary or 1b type role that I'm aware of. Like it's become this vastly overstated talking point when we talk about superstars these days. It's a factor yeah, but it should be a tie-breaker when comparing with players on his level, not using it as a weapon to compare him to clearly inferior players just because they won a title like Walt or Isiah.

This isn't that dissimilar to the Wade criticism in regards to his portability, and ceiling raising. Wade got in at 18, and you were one to help get him in. What's so drastically different here? We know Wade plays better defense and has higher IQ, but there's still a few advantages for Westbrook as well like his passing/playmaking. He's more of a natural point guard than Wade which doesn't seem like a negative to me.

Again, though what justifies them being ranked 23 spots or more apart? Is it because Wade got a title and Westbrook didn't?


AEnigma wrote:Do you think Karl Malone and Walt Frazier and Penny Hardaway were not.


Were their peaks ever compared to Durant's or Kawhi'? I would think not and for good reason of course.

AEnigma wrote:Eight years past his peak, that would be quite the uphill climb. 2003 Kidd is a more interesting question, but I do suspect that much like Draymond his scoring inadequacies would end up being limiting on most rosters, and unlike Draymond he cannot provide all-time defensive anchoring.



Well these are sarcastic questions which I'm sure you know, but I'm asking because I'm not sure where we're supposed to rank Westbrook in your mind if his scalability is so very detrimental.

AEnigma wrote:Yes I am trolling you, the Magic had an unforgivable -0.07 SRS while the 2017 Thunder had a dominant +1.14 SRS, so obviously there is no comparison.


Unless you think Penny's roster was equally bad or worse, there isn't much to discuss.

AEnigma wrote:Totally unrelated question: how did the Magic perform with Penny compared to how the Thunder performed with Westbrook, and how many games did Penny miss that season.


As if it's relevant, they went 10-13 without him, that doesn't sound like something Westbrook's team would've done without him. But I think you're wasting everyone's time with this comparison.

AEnigma wrote:Getting a lot of f4p déjà vu here. Ignoring how this does not function as a response to the comparison with peak Penny, Frazier, or Karl Malone, why should I care about the conflation of a postseason “impact” edge for Westbrook with superior quality or ability.


You haven't made any case that I'm aware of as to why Westbrook's postseason play isn't better than those guys.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#51 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 7:58 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
AEnigma wrote:You know what it means. The observation that Westbrook scales poorly alongside other stars relative to how he can produce in a 2015/17 scenario is not a concept you somehow avoided in all your years here.

What evidence is there that he scales poorly?

… Watching the games? He does not fit well next to any remotely ball dominant player, and even Durant was frequently an awkward fit. That is partly on Durant too, and Durant at least valued the attention teams had to devote to Westbrook, but all of that is base level. Does 2008 prove that Allen Iverson scales well?

2013: 2nd option to Durant- 60 wins staggering 9.15 SRS
2014: Injuries, I don't know where/how to determine their level of play when Westbrook and Durant were both playing, but I doubt it's any worse than 2013
2016: Already covered it

And this distinguishes him how. Yes, putting a great player next to an even better player on a good team gives pretty good results. Mindblowing analysis here.

Those years both were healthy, they lost a tough 6 game series to the Champion Spurs and tough 7 game series to 73 win GSW. Durant struggled in both of those series btw.

Maybe Durant would have struggled less if Westbrook were better.

Not sure where you're getting the idea that their regular season success doesn't translate as well to the playoffs.

… Have you tried considering their visible drop-off from the regular season.

Is Westbrook a perfect player? No. He has flaws like anyone else, but for some reason these days I guess we're just supposed to pretend that he didn't contribute to high level winning basketball in OKC and that he didn't have great success even though he falled short of a title.

You understand this project is comparative, right.

If we're going to make it this big deal that he failed to win a championship, then why are we discussing Cp3 and Nash so high up? Those guys didn't do any better in a secondary or 1b type role that I'm aware of.

Way to double down on expressing outright disdain for reading arguments for other players. Yes, neither won a title, that means they are the same.

Like it's become this vastly overstated talking point when we talk about superstars these days. It's a factor yeah, but it should be a tie-breaker when comparing with players on his level, not using it as a weapon to compare him to clearly inferior players just because they won a title like Walt or Isiah.

Would be cool if you could actually mount an argument for this “clear inferiority” beyond pointing to a big number and going, “See?????”

This isn't that dissimilar to the Wade criticism in regards to his portability, and ceiling raising. Wade got in at 18, and you were one to help get him in. What's so drastically different here? We know Wade plays better defense and has higher IQ, but there's still a few advantages for Westbrook as well like his passing/playmaking. He's more of a natural point guard than Wade which doesn't seem like a negative to me. Again, though what justifies them being ranked 23 spots or more apart? Is it because Wade got a title and Westbrook didn't?

Wade was a substantially better scorer and defender who although not doing so superbly understood and could commit to off-ball play in a way Westbrook never did or has. Unlike Westbrook he elevated his scoring in the postseason. For as low a bar as it is, he was probably a better shooter too, and for as high a bar as it is, he is also probably a better (or at least more valuable via size) athlete.

The gap is because he was a substantially better player. This is an empty argument. You may as well rage about Jordan getting in at #1 and Kobe getting in at #19, even though Kobe had more range, more “moves”, and was a more talented passer. The titles are merely strong proof of concept, unless you somehow believe Westbrook could have possibly won those titles in Wade’s place.

AEnigma wrote:Do you think Karl Malone and Walt Frazier and Penny Hardaway were not.

Were their peaks ever compared to Durant's or Kawhi'? I would think not and for good reason of course.

Westbrook’s did not deserve to be compared to theirs either.

AEnigma wrote:Eight years past his peak, that would be quite the uphill climb. 2003 Kidd is a more interesting question, but I do suspect that much like Draymond his scoring inadequacies would end up being limiting on most rosters, and unlike Draymond he cannot provide all-time defensive anchoring.

Well these are sarcastic questions which I'm sure you know, but I'm asking because I'm not sure where we're supposed to rank Westbrook in your mind if his scalability is so very detrimental.

We? Yet to be determined. For my part, I do not think it is any sort of given that Westbrook peaked higher than point guards like Frazier or Penny or even D-Will, although yes he certainly did score a lot more often than they did. Guys like Westbrook or Iverson or Rose have substantial scoring value on teams which are desperate for a player to shoulder that load, but there are limited cases where that actually provides a feasible path to a title because their scoring effectiveness has serious limits.

Most of the time I do not want a team that would ask Westbrook to score thirty points a game, but if Westbrook is not doing that, what is his residual value? He is never doing much to provide space for teammates. Is his efficiency improving as his volume scales down? Is he learning to contribute off-ball? Is his defence picking up? The reason people are increasingly down on Westbrook’s peak/prime because of these post-peak/prime years is because now we know that the answer is a self-righteous “no”. The funny thing is that so many excuses used to be made for Westbrook on the Thunder, as if he were succeeding in spite of them, but with hindsight I think the extent to which they were entirely built around him becomes a lot more apparent.

AEnigma wrote:Yes I am trolling you, the Magic had an unforgivable -0.07 SRS while the 2017 Thunder had a dominant +1.14 SRS, so obviously there is no comparison.

Unless you think Penny's roster was equally bad or worse, there isn't much to discuss.

Which already tells me you are not even capable of having that discussion.

AEnigma wrote:Totally unrelated question: how did the Magic perform with Penny compared to how the Thunder performed with Westbrook, and how many games did Penny miss that season.

As if it's relevant, they went 10-13 without him, that doesn't sound like something Westbrook's team would've done without him. But I think you're wasting everyone's time with this comparison.

I think you are wasting everyone’s time by much like your compatriot f4p continuing to focus on random win/loss totals rather than on any real team analysis.

That said, your own metric says the Magic under Penny were better than the Thunder under Westbrook, so why exactly did you bring up their season SRS finishes.

AEnigma wrote:Getting a lot of f4p déjà vu here. Ignoring how this does not function as a response to the comparison with peak Penny, Frazier, or Karl Malone, why should I care about the conflation of a postseason “impact” edge for Westbrook with superior quality or ability.

You haven't made any case that I'm aware of as to why Westbrook's postseason play isn't better than those guys.

You might have picked up on it if you came in with any interest in reading those cases.
He is a poor defender whose scoring efficiency drops against postseason defences while already being inefficient from the outset. He does not adjust well over the course of a series, he plays sloppily, he cannot really fit with other ballhandlers, he would/does struggle to properly make use of cutters because teams do not really need to respect his shot… So again, what makes you think he has any real advantage over point guards who maintain and retain their value in the postseason across a variety of team circumstances?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#52 » by falcolombardi » Sun Sep 4, 2022 8:55 pm

AEnigma wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
AEnigma wrote:You know what it means. The observation that Westbrook scales poorly alongside other stars relative to how he can produce in a 2015/17 scenario is not a concept you somehow avoided in all your years here.

What evidence is there that he scales poorly?

… Watching the games? He does not fit well next to any remotely ball dominant player, and even Durant was frequently an awkward fit. That is partly on Durant too, and Durant at least valued the attention teams had to devote to Westbrook, but all of that is base level. Does 2008 prove that Allen Iverson scales well?

2013: 2nd option to Durant- 60 wins staggering 9.15 SRS
2014: Injuries, I don't know where/how to determine their level of play when Westbrook and Durant were both playing, but I doubt it's any worse than 2013
2016: Already covered it

And this distinguishes him how. Yes, putting a great player next to an even better player on a good team gives pretty good results. Mindblowing analysis here.

Those years both were healthy, they lost a tough 6 game series to the Champion Spurs and tough 7 game series to 73 win GSW. Durant struggled in both of those series btw.

Maybe Durant would have struggled less if Westbrook were better.

Not sure where you're getting the idea that their regular season success doesn't translate as well to the playoffs.

… Have you tried considering their visible drop-off from the regular season.

Is Westbrook a perfect player? No. He has flaws like anyone else, but for some reason these days I guess we're just supposed to pretend that he didn't contribute to high level winning basketball in OKC and that he didn't have great success even though he falled short of a title.

You understand this project is comparative, right.

If we're going to make it this big deal that he failed to win a championship, then why are we discussing Cp3 and Nash so high up? Those guys didn't do any better in a secondary or 1b type role that I'm aware of.

Way to double down on expressing outright disdain for reading arguments for other players. Yes, neither won a title, that means they are the same.

Like it's become this vastly overstated talking point when we talk about superstars these days. It's a factor yeah, but it should be a tie-breaker when comparing with players on his level, not using it as a weapon to compare him to clearly inferior players just because they won a title like Walt or Isiah.

Would be cool if you could actually mount an argument for this “clear inferiority” beyond pointing to a big number and going, “See?????”

This isn't that dissimilar to the Wade criticism in regards to his portability, and ceiling raising. Wade got in at 18, and you were one to help get him in. What's so drastically different here? We know Wade plays better defense and has higher IQ, but there's still a few advantages for Westbrook as well like his passing/playmaking. He's more of a natural point guard than Wade which doesn't seem like a negative to me. Again, though what justifies them being ranked 23 spots or more apart? Is it because Wade got a title and Westbrook didn't?

Wade was a substantially better scorer and defender who although not doing so superbly understood and could commit to off-ball play in a way Westbrook never did or has. Unlike Westbrook he elevated his scoring in the postseason. For as low a bar as it is, he was probably a better shooter too, and for as high a bar as it is, he is also probably a better (or at least more valuable via size) athlete.

The gap is because he was a substantially better player. This is an empty argument. You may as well rage about Jordan getting in at #1 and Kobe getting in at #19, even though Kobe had more range, more “moves”, and was a more talented passer. The titles are merely strong proof of concept, unless you somehow believe Westbrook could have possibly won those titles in Wade’s place.

AEnigma wrote:Do you think Karl Malone and Walt Frazier and Penny Hardaway were not.

Were their peaks ever compared to Durant's or Kawhi'? I would think not and for good reason of course.

Westbrook’s did not deserve to be compared to theirs either.

AEnigma wrote:Eight years past his peak, that would be quite the uphill climb. 2003 Kidd is a more interesting question, but I do suspect that much like Draymond his scoring inadequacies would end up being limiting on most rosters, and unlike Draymond he cannot provide all-time defensive anchoring.

Well these are sarcastic questions which I'm sure you know, but I'm asking because I'm not sure where we're supposed to rank Westbrook in your mind if his scalability is so very detrimental.

We? Yet to be determined. For my part, I do not think it is any sort of given that Westbrook peaked higher than point guards like D-Will and Payton, although yes he certainly did score a lot more often than they did. Guys like Westbrook or Iverson or Rose have substantial scoring value on teams which are desperate for a player to shoulder that load, but there are limited cases where that actually provides a feasible path to a title because their scoring effectiveness has serious limits.

Most of the time I do not want a team that would ask Westbrook to score thirty points a game, but if Westbrook is not doing that, what is his residual value? He is never doing much to provide space for teammates. Is his efficiency improving as his volume scales down? Is he learning to contribute off-ball? Is his defence picking up? The reason people are increasingly down on Westbrook’s peak/prime because of these post-peak/prime years is because now we know that the answer is a self-righteous “no”. The funny thing is that so many excuses used to be made for Westbrook on the Thunder, as if he were succeeding in spite of them, but with hindsight I think the extent to which they were entirely built around him becomes a lot more apparent.

AEnigma wrote:Yes I am trolling you, the Magic had an unforgivable -0.07 SRS while the 2017 Thunder had a dominant +1.14 SRS, so obviously there is no comparison.

Unless you think Penny's roster was equally bad or worse, there isn't much to discuss.

Which already tells me you are not even capable of having that discussion.

AEnigma wrote:Totally unrelated question: how did the Magic perform with Penny compared to how the Thunder performed with Westbrook, and how many games did Penny miss that season.

As if it's relevant, they went 10-13 without him, that doesn't sound like something Westbrook's team would've done without him. But I think you're wasting everyone's time with this comparison.

I think you are wasting everyone’s time by much like your compatriot f4p continuing to focus on random win/loss totals rather than on any real team analysis.

That said, your own metric says the Magic under Penny were better than the Thunder under Westbrook, so why exactly did you bring up their season SRS finishes.

AEnigma wrote:Getting a lot of f4p déjà vu here. Ignoring how this does not function as a response to the comparison with peak Penny, Frazier, or Karl Malone, why should I care about the conflation of a postseason “impact” edge for Westbrook with superior quality or ability.

You haven't made any case that I'm aware of as to why Westbrook's postseason play isn't better than those guys.

You might have picked up on it if you came in with any interest in reading those cases.
He is a poor defender whose scoring efficiency drops against postseason defences while already being inefficient from the outset. He does not adjust well over the course of a series, he plays sloppily, he cannot really fit with other ballhandlers, he would/does struggle to properly make use of cutters because teams do not really need to respect his shot… So again, what makes you think he has any real advantage over point guards who maintain and retain their value in the postseason across a variety of team circumstances?


Have you tried considering their visible drop-off from the regular season


you mean okc? What playoffs drop off? If anythingh they did as well or better in the playoffs when healthy than their regular season would suggest

2012- beat the spurs who had been the better regular season team. Lose to heat who had been a worse regular season team

2013- westbrook doesnt play

2014- they beat the clippers who had the 2nd best srs in the league (higher than okc) lose to spurs who were the highest srs in the league

2016- they beat spurs who had the second best srs in the league. Lose barely to warriors who were number 1

In a crude measure as is SRS. They beat the 12 spurs, 16 spurs and 14 clippers all of which had higher srs than them and only lose 1 series to a "worse" team by srs in the 12 heat. Even their 16 loss to warriors was a 7 game loss outscoring a team that had a much better regular season than them

If anythingh oklahoma in the durant/westbrook (when both played) era tended to -overperform- its regular season performance

Watching the games? He does not fit well next to any remotely ball dominant player, and even Durant was frequently an awkward fit
.

It was not the prettiest basketball but the combo od durant efficient scoring and westbrook high volume creation led to elite offense. And it did so without a third star or great (or even good) spacing that most such offenses have (although it -had- elite offensive rebounding that made up for it. Showing that westbrook/durant could work well without needing tons of spacing)

Most of the time I do not want a team that would ask Westbrook to score thirty points a game,


He scored 23 a game in 2016 and that team had a elite offense with westbrook as its costar. No need for him to score 30 a game to have value

Does 2008 prove that Allen Iverson scales well?


The 2008 nuggets were a 50-32 team with a 3.5 srs. They also got better the next year with billups replacing iverson

All thunder teams between 2012-2016 beat that by a fair to big margiin except in 2015 when durant/west missed 70 games (and still had a 48-34 and 2.5 srs season so fairly good as far as floorraising weaker teams alone goes)

Westbrook has enough weaknesses on his game as it is and they are fair game to criticize. No need to overstate the team results side of the argument
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#53 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 10:38 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Have you tried considering their visible drop-off from the regular season

you mean okc? What playoffs drop off? If anythingh they did as well or better in the playoffs when healthy than their regular season would suggest

In a crude measure as is SRS. They beat the 12 spurs, 16 spurs and 14 clippers all of which had higher srs than them and only lose 1 series to a "worse" team by srs in the 12 heat. Even their 16 loss to warriors was a 7 game loss outscoring a team that had a much better regular season than them

If anythingh oklahoma in the durant/westbrook (when both played) era tended to -overperform- its regular season performance

Stockton and Malone typically lost to teams that would have been expected to beat him. Did they see no drop-off? Why are we being obtuse here.

Watching the games? He does not fit well next to any remotely ball dominant player, and even Durant was frequently an awkward fit
.
It was not the prettiest basketball but the combo od durant efficient scoring and westbrook high volume creation led to elite offense. And it did so without a third star or great (or even good) spacing that most such offenses have (although it -had- elite offensive rebounding that made up for it. Showing that westbrook/durant could work well without needing tons of spacing)

Which is more a reflection of how far talent can drive you. We just went over this with Paul and Harden.

Most of the time I do not want a team that would ask Westbrook to score thirty points a game,

He scored 23 a game in 2016 and that team had a elite offense with westbrook as its costar. No need for him to score 30 a game to have value

I was being glib, but he was a top ten scorer in volume, no need to sugar coat that he was getting his.

Does 2008 prove that Allen Iverson scales well?


The 2008 nuggets were a 50-32 team with a 3.5 srs. They also got better the next year with billups replacing iverson

And Paul George was worth one win to the Thunder, right?

This is a non-sequitur to my intended point. Sure, I am inclined to agree that the team overall benefitted a bit more from Billups than from Iverson, but Billups did not improve J.R. and Nene, nor did Billups did not inherently earn them four wins above expected while Iverson’s Nuggets fell one short, nor is it Iverson’s fault for being put on a team that was in greater need of a point guard than a volume scoring guard.

No need to overstate the team results side of the argument

I am not. The Thunder were a great team, and Westbrook was the second most important element of that team. His 2017 season was one which few players could have matched in those team circumstances.

But I also think his playstyle cost the Thunder a lot of postseason games they could have won with a different all-timer in his place.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#54 » by AEnigma » Sun Sep 4, 2022 11:09 pm

This is too early but apparently voting will not close until Friday, so may as well kill some time building on that Penny point.

Elgee wrote:IN 96, the Magic were +2.7 in 28 games without Shaq. The following year, with O'Neal gone to FA, they were +2.5 with Penny in the lineup...and -7.8 without him! What was the roster continuity, you ask?

Scott 3000 MP --> 2200 MP
Anderson 2700 --> 2200
Grant 2300 --> 2500
Shaw 1700 --> 1900
Koncak 1300 --> Strong 2000
Bowie 1100 --> Armstrong 1000
Wolf 1100 --> Wilkins 2200

Shaq leaves and Rony Seikaly plays 2600 minutes (68 starts) at center, playing well at 17-10. Still, it's arguably a little more impressive what Hardaway was able to do in 97...and from tape it looks like his skillset/leadership is highly refined then.

Look, we know this is a guy who could thrive and play very well with a great post player and lead a very good offense in that setting. THe Magic offensive was FIRST in 1995 and THIRD in 1996. In 97, Penny plays more 2-guard and with the roster turnover (and loss of O'Neal) they regress...but the final number is exaggerated because of his 23 missed games. In the postseason series, Hardaway averaged 31-6-3 (58% TS) and almost no turnovers. This is against the top-ranked defense in the league in the Miami Heat, and the Magic lose a close series in 5 games, posting an ORtg of 105 in G3 (W) and 120 in G4 (W). In those 2 games, Hardaway averaged 41.5 points, 7.5 reb, 3 ast and 3 steals. He had 2 turnovers and shot 64.4% TS. Indeed, the team offense swayed with him, as he had an off G1 and Orlando posted a 76 ORtg. He was better in G2 although it was a blowout by half (101 ORtg). Penny came to play in G5 but that team was completely overmatched going against those Heat.

All in all, playing with a past-prime Dennis Scott, traumatized Nick Anderson and a few other decent role players and from 96-97, basically playing with them at ~3 SRS level is seriously impressive from a unipolar standpoint. Mix in that we also saw him play on a championship-level team in 95 and 96 and I think it's a pretty monster peak from Anfernee.

fatal9 wrote:For Penny, the game was easy. He could get to his spots on offense with ease. He could play above his stats (not just saying that, he averaged like 27/6/6 on 50+% shooting when Shaq was out in '96), had the ability to take over games more often than they would indicate because he was so skilled and versatile offensively. Penny is a great example of why evaluating skills is critical to analyzing players, because it's from understanding his skillset that we can truly get a gauge his true offensive ability (and his play without Shaq just confirms it). He had the versatility to do more but didn't because that's not what the team needed with Shaq in the middle. Penny was a high IQ player with a really polished skillset, played at his own pace, phenomenal court vision which was only helped by his size, solid midrange and slashing game, solid defender and he could post up ANYONE. Smaller guards, Pippen, MJ, Blaylock, seen him give all of them the business in the post. Speaking of which, his ability to light up top defenses/defenders is really impressive as well, and again goes with the point of how his skills allowed him to play at a level above what his numbers suggest. Lot of guards who play Penny's role (scoring, playmaking, running the offense) struggle to fit their individual game with the team, but Penny did it seamlessly. He knows he can "get his" whenever he wants. It's hard to point out weaknesses in his game.

I was not making this comparison blithely: Penny’s peak résumé 1995-97 consistently matches right up with Westbrook’s minus the (6-seed) MVP, and I am not seeing how Westbrook maintains in a more postseason-focused argument.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#55 » by falcolombardi » Mon Sep 5, 2022 12:52 am

AEnigma wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Have you tried considering their visible drop-off from the regular season

you mean okc? What playoffs drop off? If anythingh they did as well or better in the playoffs when healthy than their regular season would suggest

In a crude measure as is SRS. They beat the 12 spurs, 16 spurs and 14 clippers all of which had higher srs than them and only lose 1 series to a "worse" team by srs in the 12 heat. Even their 16 loss to warriors was a 7 game loss outscoring a team that had a much better regular season than them

If anythingh oklahoma in the durant/westbrook (when both played) era tended to -overperform- its regular season performance

Stockton and Malone typically lost to teams that would have been expected to beat him. Did they see no drop-off? Why are we being obtuse here.

Watching the games? He does not fit well next to any remotely ball dominant player, and even Durant was frequently an awkward fit
.
It was not the prettiest basketball but the combo od durant efficient scoring and westbrook high volume creation led to elite offense. And it did so without a third star or great (or even good) spacing that most such offenses have (although it -had- elite offensive rebounding that made up for it. Showing that westbrook/durant could work well without needing tons of spacing)

Which is more a reflection of how far talent can drive you. We just went over this with Paul and Harden.

Most of the time I do not want a team that would ask Westbrook to score thirty points a game,

He scored 23 a game in 2016 and that team had a elite offense with westbrook as its costar. No need for him to score 30 a game to have value

I was being glib, but he was a top ten scorer in volume, no need to sugar coat that he was getting his.

Does 2008 prove that Allen Iverson scales well?


The 2008 nuggets were a 50-32 team with a 3.5 srs. They also got better the next year with billups replacing iverson

And Paul George was worth one win to the Thunder, right?

This is a non-sequitur to my intended point. Sure, I am inclined to agree that the team overall benefitted a bit more from Billups than from Iverson, but Billups did not improve J.R. and Nene, nor did Billups did not inherently earn them four wins above expected while Iverson’s Nuggets fell one short, nor is it Iverson’s fault for being put on a team that was in greater need of a point guard than a volume scoring guard.

No need to overstate the team results side of the argument

I am not. The Thunder were a great team, and Westbrook was the second most important element of that team. His 2017 season was one which few players could have matched in those team circumstances.

But I also think his playstyle cost the Thunder a lot of postseason games they could have won with a different all-timer in his place.


Stockton and Malone typically lost to teams that would have been expected to beat him. Did they see no drop-off? Why are we being obtuse here.


I never brought up stockton and malone? Fwiw I probably will have karl above westbrook and maybe stockton ahead too or along the same place

And i dont care about playoffs drop offs per se (for their own sake) . Only the final result.

If a player was the regular season goat but "merely" a post season top 20 ever guy i still would have him as a top 20 player ever. Wouldnt punish him "extra" for having a sizable drop off

This is also why karl malone and stockton were still great players in the playoffs even while having quite the drop off there from regular season


Which is more a reflection of how far talent can drive you. We just went over this with Paul and Harden.


That westbrook has diminishing returns alongside other talent doesnt mean his "diminished returns" version doesnt still have a lot of value. You seem to agree with that point so i am not sure what is the disagreement here

I am not arguing that west doesnt have diminishing returns but that even with dininishing returns he remained fairly valuable in his prime

His diminishing returns shouldnt be "double counted"

I was being glib, but he was a top ten scorer in volume, no need to sugar coat that he was getting his.


No, but you were being a bit hyperbolic which i pointed out. Westbrook need to have the ball a lot to be impactful is definetely a weakness at this level

And Paul George was worth one win to the Thunder, right?


Westbrook himself took a step back in 2018 with his shooting (including his weird free throw efficiency fall sfter the lesgue rule change altered his routine) and slowly started to trend down motor and athletism wise. The decision to also add older carmelo. A low efficiency, bad defense iso player who passed the ball little was a very bad fit issue too

But this is a fair point to bring about westbrook issues with diminishing returns

But I also think his playstyle cost the Thunder a lot of postseason games they could have won with a different all-timer in his place


This is a bit odd argument cause every player has weaknesses without which they could have done more. If westbrook was a better shooter and defender i would just rank him higher than i currently do

If westbrook didnt have those flaws you mention we would be arguing him against curry, not against frazier. That he has those flaws is why he may fall off the top 40
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#56 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 5, 2022 1:10 am

falcolombardi wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Stockton and Malone typically lost to teams that would have been expected to beat him. Did they see no drop-off? Why are we being obtuse here.

I never brought up stockton and malone? Fwiw I probably will have karl above westbrook and maybe stockton ahead too or along the same place

And i dont care about playoffs drop offs per se (for their own sake) . Only the final result.

If a player was the regular season goat but "merely" a post season top 20 ever guy i still would have him as a top 20 player ever. Wouldnt punish him "extra" for having a sizable drop off

This is also why karl malone and stockton were still great players in the playoffs even while having quite the drop off there from regular season

I was drawing an analogy that partially called back to the claim which started this comment chain suggesting Karl Malone had no real case over Westbrook. You can drop off and still see fine results if the team is good enough or has other strengths around those who seem to be dropping off. It is not damning but it is a criticism.

Which is more a reflection of how far talent can drive you. We just went over this with Paul and Harden.

That westbrook has diminishing returns alongside other talent doesnt mean his "diminished returns" version doesnt still have a lot of value. You seem to agree with that point so i am not sure what is the disagreement here

I am not arguing that west doesnt have diminishing returns but that even with dininishing returns he remained fairly valuable in his prime

His diminishing returns shouldnt be "double counted"

But I also think his playstyle cost the Thunder a lot of postseason games they could have won with a different all-timer in his place


This is a bit odd argument cause every player has weaknesses without which they could have done more. If westbrook was a better shooter and defender i would just rank him higher than i currently do

If westbrook didnt have those flaws you mention we would be arguing him against curry, not against frazier. That he has those flaws is why he may fall off the top 40

Right but remember how this conversation started lol.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#57 » by LA Bird » Mon Sep 5, 2022 2:55 am

Here are the results for round 24

Winner: 17 Durant

There were 11 voters in this round: Dutchball97, DraymondGold, AEnigma, capfan33, Samurai, falcolombardi, trelos6, SickMother, iggymcfrack, CharityStripe34, Proxy

A total of 34 seasons received at least 1 vote: 05 Nash, 06 Nash, 07 Nash, 08 Paul, 09 Paul, 11 Paul, 14 Durant, 14 Paul, 15 Paul, 16 Durant, 16 Paul, 17 Durant, 17 Paul, 17 Westbrook, 18 Davis, 18 Durant, 18 Harden, 19 Harden, 20 Davis, 20 Harden, 49 Mikan, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 62 Pettit, 67 Barry, 68 Hawkins, 69 Barry, 75 Barry, 79 Malone, 82 Malone, 83 Malone, 90 Ewing

Top 10 seasons: 17 Durant, 20 Davis, 07 Nash, 83 Malone, 50 Mikan, 14 Durant, 51 Mikan, 15 Paul, 08 Paul, 16 Durant

H2H record (1 season per player)
17 Durant: 0.650 (26-14)
20 Davis: 0.541 (20-17)
07 Nash: 0.512 (21-20)
83 Malone: 0.450 (18-22)
50 Mikan: 0.424 (14-19)
15 Paul: 0.400 (14-21)
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 

Post#58 » by f4p » Mon Sep 5, 2022 6:58 pm

AEnigma wrote:Okay, after this I am done with the Harden fanboy. I have been trying to treat it as a good faith discussion, but it has become apparent it is not and will never be one.


you said harden was about as good as blake griffin (which you will now stand by in the comments below) and you were the one acting in good faith? hmm.

you post vague statements like cp3/harden is as good as cp3/griffin and kyrie/KD were fantastic with no supporting data. i contradict it, and then suddenly you decide you should probably support those statements. speaking of that, data...

This is the problem with treating these projects as an opportunity for fan crusading rather than measured analysis.

On Paul + Griffin versus Paul + Harden:
2018 Paul + Harden = +13.5 rOrtg
2015 Paul + Griffin = +14.5 rOrtg

The difference in those teams outside their top duo/trio/lineup was that a.) the Rockets had a much better team than the Clippers outside the top four, and b.) Griffin was obviously unable to act as a Paul replacement the way Harden did.


oof, 2-man lineup data? i was both hoping that would be it, because it would be such a weak argument, and not hoping it was, because i would know that you know it was a disingenuous way to argue (although, where does one get this lineup data since it seems fun to mess around with?). yes, the 44-5 record (74 win pace) vs 44-18 record (58 win pace) was all the PJ tucker/matt barnes differential. now we've gone from "it wasn't harden, it was paul" to "harden/cp3 wasn't even that special, it was the role players". harden just can't catch a break on getting credit for this 65 win team he was the best player on.

but hey, at least this was full on court data, not just one side of the court. because that would be completely...

On the 2021 (Regular Season) Nets:
Harden: +3.5 netOrtg (as in, the Nets offence was 3.5 points better with Harden than without)
Durant: +9 netOrtg
Kyrie: +5 netOrtg

Durant with Harden: 124.65 raw Ortg
Durant without Harden: 124.61 raw Ortg
Harden without Durant: 119.96 raw Ortg
Kyrie without Durant: 119.66 raw Ortg
Harden without Durant or Kyrie: 118.87 raw Ortg
Kyrie without Durant or Harden: 118.53 raw Ortg

The Nets were a mess that season, but using random win/loss records in wildly changing circumstances is lazy.


double oof. now we're just quoting offense net and raw ratings for the nets? what a wily trickster i was, focusing on the team's record when the various duo's played. raw rating on one side of the ball was the true determinant. weird that they were such a mess but then that mess seemed to disappear every time harden started, with the nets going 33-8. the mess seemed to continue when it wasn't him. and it didn't seem to matter whom he started with, with either duo (or all 3) looking very good. seems odd that in a messy season, that raw ORtg for 2-man combos is the truly stable measure, not the whole making the team win or lose in messy circumstances. of course, i suspect you know you are being ridiculous. don't look at harden and cp3 winning, look at this 2 man lineup data. don't look at the nets being amazing when harden played, that doesn't mean he fit in well, look at this KD/kyrie net ORtg while they were losing.

of course, i have since read your other posts in this thread and maybe this argument is a lost cause. westbrook doesn't get credit for floor-raising because he can't ceiling raise. then it's pointed out that he was the best player on a team that beat a 10 SRS team in the playoffs and almost beat another 10 SRS team, but you claim that doesn't count because westbrook wasn't usually good in the playoffs. apparently, what you do isn't important once AEnigma has determined your true level. plus, there were "diminishing returns". but penny hardaway, he's on your radar. a 21.4 PER, 103 TS+, 0.175 WS48 regular season for a -0.1 SRS team? that's one of the great peaks? at least 1990 ewing had the outlier amazing regular season. penny is like 1990 ewing except without the outlier regular season. literally just an outlier 5 game playoffs where he lost in the first round and never looked that good again.

On Nash and the Mavericks:
First, those 2002/03 “non-gimmick” results? Yeah, those are right on par with the 1987 Lakers, 1988 Celtics, and 1992/96/97 Bulls. But yes, they only dropped two to three points, despite featuring versions of Nash and Dirk that were obviously worse than their peak selves to everyone actually interested in honest assessment. And the Mavericks never again hit that 2003 +7.9 SRS mark again. Not in 2007, and not in the healthy sample of 2011.

Second, the defence?
2003 Mavs = 9th on defence (-1.3)
2005 Mavs = 9th on defence (-2)
2006 Mavs = 11th on defence (-1.2)

Wow, Nash sure did cripple them on that end. Is this where I point out that Nash consistently only ever graded as a mild defensive negative in Phoenix?


and 2002 mavs, 25th of 29, 2004 mavs 26th of 29. even from the 2004 highs, the mavs offense dropped by something like 5.2 rORtg but dropped 6.7 rDRtg, and even more stupendous rise than the offense's fall. either way, the impact seems to be low. it's weird how other guys show diminishing returns, but when nash leaves and his team doesn't even notice and seemingly even improves, it's unimportant and definitely not diminishing returns. nash and dirk may have slightly improved (maybe dirk from a postseason resiliency perspective) but we're talking mid-20's guys here. they were at or near their peaks (or should have been), especially in the regular season and even in the playoffs dirk was already giving you 26/12 and series where he trashed KG.
AEnigma
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 - 2016-17 Kevin Durant 

Post#59 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 5, 2022 7:04 pm

Cool, man, good luck on your crusade against the unyielding haters.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #24 - 2016-17 Kevin Durant 

Post#60 » by f4p » Mon Sep 5, 2022 9:24 pm

AEnigma wrote:Cool, man, good luck on your crusade against the unyielding haters.


guess i gotta think more like the group if i wanna be cool. gotta go see who El Gee says i should vote for next.

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