How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis?

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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#41 » by OhayoKD » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:25 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
What do you mean by theory player?



So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

I think you're overcomplicating this.

AD played like a top ten all time player for a playoff run so people got high on him. Scoring like durant's one-off 2017 in much harder context while defending like peak garnett en route to a title led to a high estimation.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#42 » by sp6r=underrated » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:05 am

OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
What do you mean by theory player?



So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

I think you're overcomplicating this.

AD played like a top ten all time player for a playoff run so people got high on him. Scoring like durant's one-off 2017 in much harder context while defending like peak garnett en route to a title led to a high estimation.


in a bubble whereveryone was shooting at an absurd clip. The bubble made it easier to shoot, Period. The bubble also allowed a player whose body has broken down in all of the surrounding seasons to have a 3 month vacation to heal. Davis wasn't the best player on his team. Durant was the best player on all of those OKC teams. And if Davis was really playing like top 10 player all-time, those Lakers would have looked like a GOAT squad given that they had a GOAT player, they didn't.

Durant has 7 seasons were he ranked top 10 in +/-. Davis has 1.

As Texas alluded to people look at his physical gifts, combine that with the absurd fluke shooting and created a mythical player that never was.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=2132318456
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#43 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:50 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

I think you're overcomplicating this.

AD played like a top ten all time player for a playoff run so people got high on him. Scoring like durant's one-off 2017 in much harder context while defending like peak garnett en route to a title led to a high estimation.


in a bubble whereveryone was shooting at an absurd clip. The bubble made it easier to shoot, Period. The bubble also allowed a player whose body has broken down in all of the surrounding seasons to have a 3 month vacation to heal. Davis wasn't the best player on his team. Durant was the best player on all of those OKC teams. And if Davis was really playing like top 10 player all-time, those Lakers would have looked like a GOAT squad given that they had a GOAT player, they didn't.

Durant has 7 seasons were he ranked top 10 in +/-. Davis has 1.

As Texas alluded to people look at his physical gifts, combine that with the absurd fluke shooting and created a mythical player that never was.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=2132318456



Bubble stats were the same as regular season stats as a whole for the league, a few people getting hot doesn’t change that lmao

That Lakers team was historically bad in garbage time in the bubble but we’re about a top ten playoff srs team ever iirc if you take out garbage time.

You can argue you should do that for every team but teams with better SRS hypothetically would tend to do better in garbage time rather than worse

Bubble AD isn’t getting overrated, if you’re docking him because it’s unsustainable that’s fair, but it was genuinely a top tier playoff run thats only lower than other ATG runs because he played with lebron even though their games don’t intersect nearly as much as people think in order to help out AD, Obv 2017 Durant was incredible as well
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#44 » by SpreeS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:05 am

Crazy that KD and Davis peaks are so close in REALGM TOP40 peaks. This forum claims that these peaks are on the same level. Davis had never been close to KD as option A and I even dont like KD.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#45 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:09 am

SpreeS wrote:Crazy that KD and Davis peaks are so close in REALGM TOP40 peaks. This forum claims that these peaks are on the same level. Davis had never been close to KD as option A and I even dont like KD.

Some people go beyond "option A" thinking.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#46 » by SpreeS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:36 am

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:Crazy that KD and Davis peaks are so close in REALGM TOP40 peaks. This forum claims that these peaks are on the same level. Davis had never been close to KD as option A and I even dont like KD.

Some people go beyond "option A" thinking.


Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#47 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:25 am

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:Crazy that KD and Davis peaks are so close in REALGM TOP40 peaks. This forum claims that these peaks are on the same level. Davis had never been close to KD as option A and I even dont like KD.

Some people go beyond "option A" thinking.


Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.

Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#48 » by SpreeS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:17 am

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Some people go beyond "option A" thinking.


Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.

Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.


How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
O'Neal (LAL 01-04) +11.38
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Billups (DET 03-08) +7.01
Embiid (PHI 17-22) +6.94
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.70
Wade (MIA 04-19) +5.73
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#49 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:40 am

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.

Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.


How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
O'Neal (LAL 01-04) +11.38
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Embiid (PHI 17-22) +6.94
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.70
Wade (MIA 04-19) +5.73
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69


I'm not really sure what you're trying to argue but the sample sizes aren't equal in those. If you're trying to fit in their primes, it's still not equal or accurate.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#50 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:41 am

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.

Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.


How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.7
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69

I think it's better to look at adjusted +/-numbers to compare players across different years in different environments.

1997-14 ORAPM:

LeBron James: +4.73
Dwyane Wade: +4.12
Manu Ginobili: +3.83
Charles Barkley: +3.83
James Harden: +3.68
Steve Nash: +3.60
Jeff Hornacek: +3.52
Chris Paul: +3.38
Dirk Nowitzki: +3.33
Kobe Bryant: +3.29

Average: +3.73

1997-14 DRAPM:

Dikembe Mutombo: +4.10
David Robinson: +3.84
Jason Collins: +3.24
Stanley Roberts: +3.23
Shawn Bradley: +3.17
Tim Duncan: +3.09
Bo Outlaw: +3.06
Kevin Garnett: +3.06
Gheorge Muresan: +2.74
Alonzo Mourning: +2.74

Average: +3.23

There is a difference and a notable one, but it doesn't show that individual defensive impact pales in comparison to offensive one.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#51 » by SpreeS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:47 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.


How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
O'Neal (LAL 01-04) +11.38
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Embiid (PHI 17-22) +6.94
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.70
Wade (MIA 04-19) +5.73
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69


I'm not really sure what you're trying to argue but the sample sizes aren't equal in those. If you're trying to fit in their primes, it's still not equal or accurate.


I use data from this website. I can chose only one team. It would be perfect to see on/off for whole career, but it isnt possible. I think that is enough data to see the whole point.

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612765&Season=2003-04,2004-05,2005-06,2006-07,2007-08,2002-03&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1497
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#52 » by SpreeS » Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:28 pm

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Some do and I don't see strong evidences to ignore such statement.


How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.7
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69

I think it's better to look at adjusted +/-numbers to compare players across different years in different environments.

1997-14 ORAPM:

LeBron James: +4.73
Dwyane Wade: +4.12
Manu Ginobili: +3.83
Charles Barkley: +3.83
James Harden: +3.68
Steve Nash: +3.60
Jeff Hornacek: +3.52
Chris Paul: +3.38
Dirk Nowitzki: +3.33
Kobe Bryant: +3.29

Average: +3.73

1997-14 DRAPM:

Dikembe Mutombo: +4.10
David Robinson: +3.84
Jason Collins: +3.24
Stanley Roberts: +3.23
Shawn Bradley: +3.17
Tim Duncan: +3.09
Bo Outlaw: +3.06
Kevin Garnett: +3.06
Gheorge Muresan: +2.74
Alonzo Mourning: +2.74

Average: +3.23

There is a difference and a notable one, but it doesn't show that individual defensive impact pales in comparison to offensive one.


How can you use this data when we have such results

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=2032155925

2022

Curry ORAMP +1,61 DRAMP +2,06
Smart ORAMP +1,47 DRAMP +1,00

I know this mean s..t for one year especially for role players, but its totally wrong.

RAMP 2011-2016

ORAMP

Curry +8,92
Lebron +8,72
Paul +8,26
Harden +7,6
Lillard +7,60
Westbrook +7,04
KD +6,40
Carmelo +6,22

DRAMP

KG +6,41
Sanders +6,18
Green +4,97

Offence dominates defence.

RAMP 2017-2022

The same thing

ORAMP 7 players (4,98 - 4,01) DRAMP 1 player with 4,00
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#53 » by OhayoKD » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:38 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

I think you're overcomplicating this.

AD played like a top ten all time player for a playoff run so people got high on him. Scoring like durant's one-off 2017 in much harder context while defending like peak garnett en route to a title led to a high estimation.


in a bubble whereveryone was shooting at an absurd clip. The bubble made it easier to shoot, Period. The bubble also allowed a player whose body has broken down in all of the surrounding seasons to have a 3 month vacation to heal. Davis wasn't the best player on his team. Durant was the best player on all of those OKC teams.

So? If team a is much better than team b the second best player on team a can be better than the best player on team b. Similarly, if team a's 3rd, 4th, and 5th best players are alot worse than team b's, the second best player on team b can be better than team a.

KD had a much smaller role than davis through 2012, failed in 2013, and was arguably outplayed in westbrook while failing in 2014 and 2016. Again 2017 kd scoriing(with less help)+atg defense is a higher level of play than kd's ever touched.cHence the estimation. Sometimes people like to judge what has happened as opposed to "what would happen if you rerun the season 100 times"
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#54 » by OhayoKD » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:39 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:Crazy that KD and Davis peaks are so close in REALGM TOP40 peaks. This forum claims that these peaks are on the same level. Davis had never been close to KD as option A and I even dont like KD.

Some people go beyond "option A" thinking.


Some people thinks that players defence and offence have equal impact on team results.


a two way big being higher than an option a player doesn't require offense and defense to be equally strong. Your point is irrelevant
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#55 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:46 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
How do you explane these numbers?

in/out def netrtg

Gobert (UTA 14-22) +6.44
Green (GSW 13-22) +4.32
Wallace (DET 01-06) +4.13
Duncan (SAN 01-16) +4.08
Garnett (MIN 01-07) +3.85
Giannis (MIL 14-22) +2.55
Kawahi (SAN 12-18) +2.23
Gasol (MEM 09-18) +0.64
Howard (ORL 05-12) +0.60
Noah (CHI 08-16) -0.54
Smart (BOS 15-22) -1.78

in/out off netrtg

Paul (LAC 12-17) +12.35
Nash (PHO 05-12) +11.55
Curry (GSW 10-22) +10.22
Lebron (CLE 04-10 15-18) +9.03
Jokic (DEN 16-22) +8.58
Harden (HOU 13-20) +7.07
Kobe (LAL 01-16) +6.7
Durant (OKC 08-16) +5.69

I think it's better to look at adjusted +/-numbers to compare players across different years in different environments.

1997-14 ORAPM:

LeBron James: +4.73
Dwyane Wade: +4.12
Manu Ginobili: +3.83
Charles Barkley: +3.83
James Harden: +3.68
Steve Nash: +3.60
Jeff Hornacek: +3.52
Chris Paul: +3.38
Dirk Nowitzki: +3.33
Kobe Bryant: +3.29

Average: +3.73

1997-14 DRAPM:

Dikembe Mutombo: +4.10
David Robinson: +3.84
Jason Collins: +3.24
Stanley Roberts: +3.23
Shawn Bradley: +3.17
Tim Duncan: +3.09
Bo Outlaw: +3.06
Kevin Garnett: +3.06
Gheorge Muresan: +2.74
Alonzo Mourning: +2.74

Average: +3.23

There is a difference and a notable one, but it doesn't show that individual defensive impact pales in comparison to offensive one.


How can you use this data when we have such results

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=2032155925

2022

Curry ORAMP +1,61 DRAMP +2,06
Smart ORAMP +1,47 DRAMP +1,00

I know this mean s..t for one year especially for role players, but its totally wrong.

RAMP 2011-2016

ORAMP

Curry +8,92
Lebron +8,72
Paul +8,26
Harden +7,6
Lillard +7,60
Westbrook +7,04
KD +6,40
Carmelo +6,22

DRAMP

KG +6,41
Sanders +6,18
Green +4,97

Offence dominates defence.

RAMP 2017-2022

The same thing

ORAMP 7 players (4,98 - 4,01) DRAMP 1 player with 4,00

You used completely unreliable database here.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#56 » by Ron Swanson » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:25 pm

At the highest level, individual offense will almost always be more valuable than individual defense. Don't see how that's even debatable considering Russell is the only consensus Top-20 player whose defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact to such an out-sized degree. That's just the nature of a sport where one player can dominate the ball as a scoring/play-making hub and achieve the greatest results. But unlike offense, there's no diminishing returns to defensive value, so therefore it's almost always additive value (unless some weird scheme/fit variables complicate it). But in essence that's why I'll always value the two-way player (Giannis, Embiid) over the guy who plays one side (Harden, KD) so long as their offensive impact is reasonably close.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#57 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:46 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:At the highest level, individual offense will almost always be more valuable than individual defense. Don't see how that's even debatable considering Russell is the only consensus Top-20 player whose defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact to such an out-sized degree. That's just the nature of a sport where one player can dominate the ball as a scoring/play-making hub and achieve the greatest results. But unlike offense, there's no diminishing returns to defensive value, so therefore it's almost always additive value (unless some weird scheme/fit variables complicate it). But in essence that's why I'll always value the two-way player (Giannis, Embiid) over the guy who plays one side (Harden, KD) so long as their offensive impact is reasonably close.

Duncan's defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact if we look at the metrics. I don't think he's the only one either - Hakeem almost certainly had a bigger impact on defense. Robinson is another one. Wilt and Garnett are arguable.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#58 » by Ron Swanson » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:48 pm

70sFan wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:At the highest level, individual offense will almost always be more valuable than individual defense. Don't see how that's even debatable considering Russell is the only consensus Top-20 player whose defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact to such an out-sized degree. That's just the nature of a sport where one player can dominate the ball as a scoring/play-making hub and achieve the greatest results. But unlike offense, there's no diminishing returns to defensive value, so therefore it's almost always additive value (unless some weird scheme/fit variables complicate it). But in essence that's why I'll always value the two-way player (Giannis, Embiid) over the guy who plays one side (Harden, KD) so long as their offensive impact is reasonably close.

Duncan's defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact if we look at the metrics. I don't think he's the only one either - Hakeem almost certainly had a bigger impact on defense. Robinson is another one. Wilt and Garnett are arguable.


To an "out-sized degree similar to Russell"? Hard disagree on that one. 2002 Duncan literally led the league in made FG's. Wilt is one of the most prolific scorers and efficient offensive players ever while playing in the same era. D-Rob and KG are the only ones I'd say might be close, but we do have evidence that both guys were simply in a different tier of offensive anchor (at least in the regular season), and with far less talent around them. All clearly better defenders than they were offensive players, but that's not what the statement was about. The gap in Russell's defensive (GOAT) and offensive impact is entirely unique amongst the Top-20 or so. I'd imagine we'd have to go all the way back to wherever you'd place Mutombo, Mourning, Dwight etc. to see a similar gap from defense-to-offense while still being a clear Top-75 player.
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#59 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:10 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:At the highest level, individual offense will almost always be more valuable than individual defense. Don't see how that's even debatable considering Russell is the only consensus Top-20 player whose defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact to such an out-sized degree. That's just the nature of a sport where one player can dominate the ball as a scoring/play-making hub and achieve the greatest results. But unlike offense, there's no diminishing returns to defensive value, so therefore it's almost always additive value (unless some weird scheme/fit variables complicate it). But in essence that's why I'll always value the two-way player (Giannis, Embiid) over the guy who plays one side (Harden, KD) so long as their offensive impact is reasonably close.

Duncan's defensive impact dwarfs his offensive impact if we look at the metrics. I don't think he's the only one either - Hakeem almost certainly had a bigger impact on defense. Robinson is another one. Wilt and Garnett are arguable.


To an "out-sized degree similar to Russell"? Hard disagree on that one. 2002 Duncan literally led the league in made FG's. Wilt is one of the most prolific scorers and efficient offensive players ever while playing in the same era. D-Rob and KG are the only ones I'd say might be close, but we do have evidence that both guys were simply in a different tier of offensive anchor (at least in the regular season), and with far less talent around them. All clearly better defenders than they were offensive players, but that's not what the statement was about. The gap in Russell's defensive (GOAT) and offensive impact is entirely unique amongst the Top-20 or so. I'd imagine we'd have to go all the way back to wherever you'd place Mutombo, Mourning, Dwight etc. to see a similar gap from defense-to-offense while still being a clear Top-75 player.

But your original point was that Russell is the only top 20 player who had much bigger impact on defense than offense. Even if we go with basic RAPM studies, Duncan was far better defensively than on offense. The gap isn't the same, but it's significant.

One-way players rarely are in conversation for top 20 by the way, it's not defense-first players problem. How many mediocre defenders you have in your top 20? Magic, Dirk and Curry maybe?
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Re: How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis? 

Post#60 » by Ron Swanson » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:24 pm

One-way players rarely are in conversation for top 20 by the way, it's not defense-first players problem. How many mediocre defenders you have in your top 20? Magic, Dirk and Curry maybe?


I agree with this and stated as much previously in the thread, but it's not really the point. You and I just disagree about the uniqueness and size of the gap between Russell's defensive and offensive impact. I completely disagree that Duncan/KG/Hakeem are comparable. None of them are really that close to Russell's defensive impact (no one is, really), but all of them I consider significantly better offensive players, and it's not like we don't have data to back that up. They're much closer to an even split in having the ability to anchor both an offense and defense.

Also feel like it should be telling about the "one-way" guys listed (no Barkley, Baylor, or Moses?), that all of them were Top 20-30 players based almost solely on their offensive impact, to which I'd respond, and in reference to my assertion that Russell is a unique outlier, how often is the inverse of that true?

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