RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#41 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:48 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

I don't think of him, because look at when he played. I'd rather have Ray Allen or Paul George on my team.

He peaked around the same time as Kareem, just to your knowledge. Now I'm waiting for "he transcended his era" comments.

Edit: and Artis Gilmore, who you considered in the last thread.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#42 » by One_and_Done » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:49 pm

I've answered it all before. Maybe you just need to re-read my answers.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#43 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:51 pm

AEnigma wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

I would rather have Pippen and Reggie, but he and Barry are my next perimetre choices after.

To me these 4 are very interesting to compare. The last time I tried to rank them, I came up with this order:

Hondo
Reggie
Pippen
Barry

but they are all in the same tier to me. I don't know, I just came out very impressed with Havlicek's overall package. He's the guy that looks MUCH better than his boxscore stats indicate. It also helps that he could play any role on offense at reasonable level at his peak (though he wouldn't be a great helio guy of course) and that's what makes him more exciting choice to me that Pippen (though I admit that Scottie has a clear advantage on defense, unlike the rest).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#44 » by Samurai » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:53 pm

70sFan wrote:I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

Have always been a Hondo fan. I'm just wondering if #25 feels a bit high for him. The confusing thing about him is that he was a good player during the Russell years, but he doesn't become an elite All NBA guy with consistent top 10 MVP voting shares until 70 (the year after Russell retires; not sure if that is a coincidence or not). But starting in his age 29 season, his efficiency and TS% suddenly shoots up and he starts his run of well-deserved All NBA First team selections when he's in his 30's. Maybe he just figured out how to shoot better as his FT% was also better in his 30's than his 20's. If he was able to better approach his age 30's prime when he was in his 20's, I'd be very comfortable with nominating him now. But as it actually played out, he feels more like a late 20's, early 30's nomination timeframe for me.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#45 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:53 pm

One_and_Done wrote:I've answered it all before. Maybe you just need to re-read my answers.

No you didn't. You said Moses would be a liability against P&Rs without backing up it with anything. You didn't say why Moses wouldn't dominate inside, you just said so and then said he'd be worse than Shaq (which nobody argues against).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#46 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:54 pm

Samurai wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

Have always been a Hondo fan. I'm just wondering if #25 feels a bit high for him. The confusing thing about him is that he was a good player during the Russell years, but he doesn't become an elite All NBA guy with consistent top 10 MVP voting shares until 70 (the year after Russell retires; not sure if that is a coincidence or not). But starting in his age 29 season, his efficiency and TS% suddenly shoots up and he starts his run of well-deserved All NBA First team selections when he's in his 30's. Maybe he just figured out how to shoot better as his FT% was also better in his 30's than his 20's. If he was able to better approach his age 30's prime when he was in his 20's, I'd be very comfortable with nominating him now. But as it actually played out, he feels more like a late 20's, early 30's nomination timeframe for me.

Well keep in mind that the nomination wouldn't put him at 25th spot, but more likely into late 20s.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#47 » by Samurai » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:58 pm

70sFan wrote:
Samurai wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

Have always been a Hondo fan. I'm just wondering if #25 feels a bit high for him. The confusing thing about him is that he was a good player during the Russell years, but he doesn't become an elite All NBA guy with consistent top 10 MVP voting shares until 70 (the year after Russell retires; not sure if that is a coincidence or not). But starting in his age 29 season, his efficiency and TS% suddenly shoots up and he starts his run of well-deserved All NBA First team selections when he's in his 30's. Maybe he just figured out how to shoot better as his FT% was also better in his 30's than his 20's. If he was able to better approach his age 30's prime when he was in his 20's, I'd be very comfortable with nominating him now. But as it actually played out, he feels more like a late 20's, early 30's nomination timeframe for me.

Well keep in mind that the nomination wouldn't put him at 25th spot, but more likely into late 20s.

Understood. My nominations for the current round are Pettit and Frazier, and both just feel a bit more deserving of my vote now than Hondo. I realize with the significant recency bias, neither will likely be voted in for quite a while and Hondo is on my radar.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#48 » by One_and_Done » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:04 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I've answered it all before. Maybe you just need to re-read my answers.

No you didn't. You said Moses would be a liability against P&Rs without backing up it with anything. You didn't say why Moses wouldn't dominate inside, you just said so and then said he'd be worse than Shaq (which nobody argues against).

Again; I did explain, and if you go back and read my posts properly you will see that. I said you basically needed to be a GOAT level type offensive force to offset the lack of both perimeter mobility and elite defensive anchoring/rim protecting ability. Moses isn't a GOAT offensive force like Shaq, so his twin failures on D are fatal. I explained it quite clearly.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#49 » by 70sFan » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:07 am

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I've answered it all before. Maybe you just need to re-read my answers.

No you didn't. You said Moses would be a liability against P&Rs without backing up it with anything. You didn't say why Moses wouldn't dominate inside, you just said so and then said he'd be worse than Shaq (which nobody argues against).

Again; I did explain, and if you go back and read my posts properly you will see that. I said you basically needed to be a GOAT level type offensive force to offset the lack of both perimeter mobility and elite defensive anchoring/rim protecting ability. Moses isn't a GOAT offensive force like Shaq, so his twin failures on D are fatal. I explained it quite clearly.

So where exactly in your explanation there is a single argument backing up Moses being a liability against P&Rs? It's just your assumption, it would be good to back it up with something substantial.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#50 » by One_and_Done » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:32 am

You can see from watching Moses play, he was a bruiser from a bygone era. He just lacks the footspeed to these eyes. Obviously that's my analysis, just like everyone else is using their own subjective analysis, but it seems pretty obvious to me. Just like it's obvious to me that Shawn Bradley is awkward and lacks fluidity. We don't have a stat for that though.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#51 » by lessthanjake » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:37 am

homecourtloss wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:As for nomination, I just think Kawhi is the best player left on the board. There’s longevity/injury problems and I wouldn’t mind at all Pettit being nominated at this point, but when healthy I think Kawhi is the best player left. Just for reference, from 2015-2016 onwards, Kawhi has a 29.0 PER, 0.262 win shares per 48 minutes, and 11.0 BPM in the playoffs, and that’s with metrics that don’t adequately account for a major area that Kawhi also excels at (defense). I just think that he can raise his game to a higher level than anyone left, and he has the team success to go along with it.


No problem with the nomination, but want to address the bolded. Kawhi did have some excellent defensive seasons not really captured by the box data but these were before he became a focal point on offense.

JE doesn’t have single season RS+PS RAPM numbers for 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 (not that I’ve seen posted), but these wouldn’t change things much. His career (through 2022) at -1.2 suggests that 2020, 2021, and 2022 weren’t the strongest defensive seasons either.

Overall, his defensive impact doesn’t match the outsized reputation he’s been given.



Yeah I think this is a fair point. Kawhi’s defense peaked before his offense did. I wasn’t really meaning to suggest otherwise. I do think he has always been a notable positive defensively, even when not at his defensive peak, and my point was just that that’s something probably not even adequately picked up by box-score metrics and yet he’s still been extremely high in those metrics in the playoffs.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#52 » by Colbinii » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:08 am

Considering Moses wasn't very big for a Center, I have a hard time seeing him as a huge liability in the P&R. Far leaner than Jokic/Embiid/Shaq.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#53 » by rk2023 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:11 am

Barkley certainly has the best longevity / career value of the 5 nominees and probably ends up being my pick here due to that, but I have some gripes with his game (eg. defense, impact profile that doesn't quite add up with how high the box score regards him).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZxRM9p2dFil5w6s21VEB4HnQZJymEY8_2vej-jREuUo/htmlview#
Courtesy of Harvey Pollack - On/off Net-swing for Barkley's 76ers tenure of 1985-1992 RS (formatted as "Net Swing", "ORTG - DRTG on", "ORTG - DRTG off"):

Code: Select all

1.9, 111.6-106.8, 110.9-108.0
10.6, 110.7-105.7, 102.5-108.0
7.9, 109.3-107, 106.1-111.8
2.7, 109.7-110.6, 105.5-109.2
11.0, 115.3-111.4, 104.7-111.8
8.3, 115.5-108.5, 106.6-107.9
8.8, 112.4-109.3, 100.5-106.2
6.0, 112.3-112.0, 97.9-103.7


Dipper 13, once active on PC Board and known for effortful historical tracking, has some data from 1988-96 Barkley (keep in mind, it is drawing from limited games):

Dipper 13 wrote:
Jaivl wrote:Nope. Also, data is from Dipper 13, maybe he has more?


Only Barkley (from 84 game sample) between 1988-96.

Image


From this, he looks like absolute dynamite as a 2-point scorer and dangerous when getting downhill. As I mentioned however, his offensive lift on his teams (granted - I don't have Suns Barkley data) reaches levels akin to *that* sort of player only from 1989-92. It's also not like Barkley is some RS paper tiger who falls over in the PS, as his scoring profile looks pretty solid there too - with a slight drop in raw TS% and adjusted TS% at that, but a similar "score-val" value indexing on his 1985-96 sample. His granular playmaking stats don't look that good however (eg. negative playval, not really great creation or passer rating).

For those whom have scouted him more-so, I guess a question I could pose is how was Barkley's scoring attention / gravity, and how good was he at utilizing the defensive focus / attention a puncturing interior presence like him would in theory commend? I certainly wouldn't call Barkley "one dimensional" - as he's adding a ton through rim pressure/rebounding/some off-ball scoring sets (not to mention how much his gaudy FTR affects team minutes/rotations) - but his playmaking doesn't look like a crazy needle mover and he's giving back some of his value as a player on defense.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#54 » by rk2023 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:17 am

I'm feeling best for Wade and Giannis in comparison to Barkley - where I'll be going with two of these three, but not too firm on either quite yet. Jokic doesn't have the sheer # of meaningful seasons / prime quality to compete with the two just yet imo. Harden, otoh, might have the best longevity of the bunch - but I view Giannis and Wade as clearly better players. Am curious what the case may be for Harden over either of them.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#55 » by One_and_Done » Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:36 am

Colbinii wrote:Considering Moses wasn't very big for a Center, I have a hard time seeing him as a huge liability in the P&R. Far leaner than Jokic/Embiid/Shaq.

I'd be broadly happy to grant Moses was, in his prime, at least a little more mobile than those guys for the most part. He still would be a liability IMO, and is too slow, and he lacks what those guys give you to compensate. Shaq and Jokic are GOAT level offensive players (for bigs), and Embiid and Shaq provide rim protection and defensive anchoring. Moses provides none of that.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#56 » by 70sFan » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:38 am

One_and_Done wrote:You can see from watching Moses play, he was a bruiser from a bygone era. He just lacks the footspeed to these eyes. Obviously that's my analysis, just like everyone else is using their own subjective analysis, but it seems pretty obvious to me. Just like it's obvious to me that Shawn Bradley is awkward and lacks fluidity. We don't have a stat for that though.

As you like to point out, the burden of proof is on your side. If you think Moses was a slow plodder with poor quickness and mobility, it would be nice to present some examples to back it up.


One_and_Done wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Considering Moses wasn't very big for a Center, I have a hard time seeing him as a huge liability in the P&R. Far leaner than Jokic/Embiid/Shaq.

I'd be broadly happy to grant Moses was, in his prime, at least a little more mobile than those guys for the most part. He still would be a liability IMO, and is too slow, and he lacks what those guys give you to compensate. Shaq and Jokic are GOAT level offensive players (for bigs), and Embiid and Shaq provide rim protection and defensive anchoring. Moses provides none of that.

I mean, Moses was not all-time great rim protector but it's not true that he didn't provide any rim protection. I also don't see how Shaq provided "defensive anchoring" - by being big and lazy body under the basket?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#57 » by One_and_Done » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:50 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:You can see from watching Moses play, he was a bruiser from a bygone era. He just lacks the footspeed to these eyes. Obviously that's my analysis, just like everyone else is using their own subjective analysis, but it seems pretty obvious to me. Just like it's obvious to me that Shawn Bradley is awkward and lacks fluidity. We don't have a stat for that though.

As you like to point out, the burden of proof is on your side. If you think Moses was a slow plodder with poor quickness and mobility, it would be nice to present some examples to back it up.


One_and_Done wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Considering Moses wasn't very big for a Center, I have a hard time seeing him as a huge liability in the P&R. Far leaner than Jokic/Embiid/Shaq.

I'd be broadly happy to grant Moses was, in his prime, at least a little more mobile than those guys for the most part. He still would be a liability IMO, and is too slow, and he lacks what those guys give you to compensate. Shaq and Jokic are GOAT level offensive players (for bigs), and Embiid and Shaq provide rim protection and defensive anchoring. Moses provides none of that.

I mean, Moses was not all-time great rim protector but it's not true that he didn't provide any rim protection. I also don't see how Shaq provided "defensive anchoring" - by being big and lazy body under the basket?

1) There's no point getting into a lengthy debate about Moses now that he's already in.
2) The burden of proof is on ppl advancing an argument sure, but that doesn't mean I need to produce records of what his wind sprints were in practise; some of this stuff is inherently subjective and will rest on our argumentation. There's no stat to capture how slow you are, not in the pre-synergy days anyway. You just need to watch some footage and use some common sense.
3) Shaq wasn't Tim Duncan on D, but he did provide solid rim protection. One of the few things that seemed to fire up Shaq was guys daring to think they could dunk on him, which is why so few guys ever did.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#58 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:56 am

AEnigma wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:Vote: Charles Barkley

More longevity than Jokic or Giannis(over 2x in the case of Jokic) and imo a higher peak/prime period than Wade or Harden.

Barkley's peak consisted of a period where he had a 10+ rTS and 60%+ 2P for five straight seasons while rebounding at a rate unheard of for someone his size. I simply don't understand how that isn't a standout peak.

People point to Barkley's lack of playoff success, like this:

AEnigma wrote:Barkley I see as a guy who never won a title, peaked as maybe the third best player in the league, and has one legitimately impressive win as his team’s leader (1993 Sonics).


But again, almost his entire prime was spent languishing on a poor Philly team, so it's no wonder there's a a lack of impressive playoff performances. That some of those teams made the playoffs at all is a testament to Barkley's value.

Kevin Garnett coming in at #9 in this thread indicates that a lot of people here have given him the benefit of the doubt despite spending much of his prime in a bad situation. Why does Barkley not get the same benefit of the doubt?

Because we know he was not as significant a piece to those wins as Garnett was.


That's perhaps valid for his Phoenix/Houston years(though debatable), but the Sixers didn't have many series wins in Barkley's time there because those rosters - after Moses and Doc were gone - were very lacking. Like I said before, that those 1990 and 1991 rosters had guys like Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Rick Mahorn, Arman Gilliam; if Barkley wasn't the most significant piece for their being as good as they were and winning a playoff series in each of those years, then who was?

You talk about his peak/prime quality weighed against Wade, but many people feel he peaked in Phoenix — despite completely losing that “+10 rTS” streak — and he was relatively underwhelming after 1993, so what exactly is this peak/prime advantage?


I don't know why you put "+10 rts" in quotes. It's a thing that happened, and I'm pretty sure no one that's been inducted so far did it. It is impressive and bares mentioning.

Anyway, I feel like most people(here anyway) think of Barkley's prime ending early in his Phoenix tenure - 93 or 94 - and that most of his prime was in Philly.

If you don't limit it to wins, Barkley had a number of impressive playoff series during his prime.

27.6/14.7 on 62.2% FG - 1986 ECSF loss to Milwaukee
24.6/12.6 on 57.3% FG - 1987 EC1R loss to Milwaukee
27.0/11.7 on 64.4% FG - 1989 EC1R loss to New York
25.6/14.0 on 55.3% FG - 1990 EC1R win vs Cleveland
23.8/17.0 on 53.2% FG - 1990 ECSF loss to Chicago
23.7/11.0 on 52.0% FG - 1991 EC1R win vs Milwaukee
25.6/10.2 on 64.0% FG - 1991 ECSF loss to Chicago
The whole 1993 run
37.3/13.3 on 60.5% FG - 1994 WC1R win vs Golden State
33.7/13.7 on 57.4% FG - 1995 WC1R win vs Portland

There is a difference between being a bad playoff performer and not being some exemplary one. Aside from arguably the 1993 Sonics (based on SRS), Barkley never did better than expected. However, he had several losses which were to some degree unexpected. They were against Jordan and Hakeem, so hey, totally willing to err on “expected”, but as I have gone over, Barkley’s teams tended to underperform even outside of cold win/loss analysis.


I mean, you just said it. He was never expected to beat Jordan or Hakeem. Most of his high-profile playoff series losses as the #1 option came to Jordan three times in four years and then to Hakeem in back-to-back years. That said, that 1995 loss to Houston after being up 3-1 with HCA is for sure a black eye.

But it's really hard for me to blame him for losing anything in Philly with the rosters he had when he was the #1 option.

Which brings us to…
I'm sure some would argue that putting up those numbers against what was in many cases first-round fodder doesn't qualify as impressive, but when you're 6'4-6'6'(depending on source) and you're primarily an inside scorer, putting up those statlines against frontlines that included Patrick Ewing/Charles Oakley, Brad Daugherty/Larry Nance, and Horace Grant/Scottie Pippen is impressive.

A 6'4' guy scoring at the volume and efficiency and rebounding at the rate with reasonable consistency in the playoffs is incredible.

I'm just getting really frustrated with this board's constant undervaluing of Sir Charles.

Barkley does not receive bonus points for being short. If anything, it is the opposite.

Scoring production does not mean much if it does not really translate into high impact. Why do most of us not have Dantley in the top fifty? Barkley’s scoring was “impressive” in much the same sense (honestly Dantley’s is more impressive based on shot profile and level of athleticism), but that “impressive” lack of height is also much of what kept him from being a better player. He was not much taller than Wade, but I am a lot more confident in building around Wade because a) Wade is a better defender generally, and b) I can play Wade as a guard next to much better defenders than I can with Barkley as a forward.


Well, we just simply disagree there. I think the things Barkley achieved statistically at his height are very, very impressive. It's not bonus points, it's just recognizing the talent, instincts, and drive you have to have to do the things he did at his height.

To the extent I would consider Barkley, it would be that his lower prime / out-of-prime years are better and more productive, and for as much as both dealt with limiting playoff injuries, Wade was hampered more. All the same, I am not sure what exactly suggests Barkley was regularly rising to a level where he would win more with the same approximate team situation as Wade, or that Wade would have won less with the same approximate team situation as Barkley.


Barkley and Wade both had periods where they were the #1 option on an underwhelming roster that made the playoffs. Let's compare those seasons:

1990 Sixers - 53 wins, 4.23 SRS, +5.1 Net Rtg, #2 seed
1991 Sixers - 44 wins, -0.39 SRS, -0.2 Net Rtg, #5 seed
Key players other than Barkley: Johnny Dawkins, Hersey Hawkins, Rick Mahorn, Mike Gminski, Arman Gilliam

2009 Heat - 43 wins, 0.49 SRS, +0.3 Net Rtg, #5 seed
2010 Heat - 47 wins, 1.99 SRS, +2.5 Net Rtg, #5 seed
Key players other Wade: Mario Chalmers, Quentin Richardson, Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O'Neal

I don't know that there's enough there to draw a strong conclusion either way, but it certainly doesn't paint Wade as having some huge advantage.

Wade at his best was a top fifteen-ish peak who could win a title by upsetting back-to-back 6-SRS teams with middling support. Barkley at his Philadelphia best was an underwhelming second-round exit generally not even losing to title teams, and then he joined a top five team and elevated them to looking like the league’s second or third best team.


You mention Wade "upsetting back-to-back 6-SRS teams with middling support" - I just want to mention that Shaq was still there. I know he was in decline by 2006, but he put up 21.7 and 10.5 on 65.5% FG in the ECF vs the Pistons against the Big Ben/Rasheed frontcourt. His Finals volume was lower(largely due to two below-average games out of six), but his efficiency was still elite - 13.7 and 10.2 on 60.7% FG. Shaq averaged 18.4/9.8 on 57.1% TS throughout those playoffs, and he had a 4.85 RS+PO RAPM per J.E. in 2005-06.

Wade was the #1 option in 2006 but, say what you want about the rest of the roster, the Heat aren't winning that championship without Shaq. It may seem irrelevant to the debate at hand, but since so much of Wade's case seems to center on that title run, I just think it's important that we don't diminish Shaq's role in it for the sake of making it appear a bigger carry job than it was for Wade. And also that we acknowledge the, ahem, friendly whistle Wade was getting in those playoffs. It wasn't the 94 Rockets or the 03 Spurs.

I think he merits top thirty, but you started pushing for him around top twenty, and for what — high field goal percentage?


So, I started pushing Barkley earlier than that, but the reason - and I explained it then - was that I knew Karl Malone was probably going to get inducted before him. They were the two best PFs of their era, and there was a five-spot gap between them on the 2020 ranking, and it's going to be more than that this time. I very strongly disagree with the notion that there is that much separation between the two of them. I'm still frustrated at this board's apparent opinion that Malone is that much better than Barkley. That doesn't necessarily mean Barkley needed to be higher, BTW - if Malone were lower that would be fine by me, so long as they were closer together. Anyway, that's a tangent, but that's why I started pushing Barkley that early.

And not for nothing, but let's not minimize "high field goal percentage". First, it wasn't just FG, it was TS. Second, if a player is consistently scoring on that volume and that efficiency, that means he's one of the greatest scorers of all time. So, yes. Because he's on the of the greatest scorers of all time, and unlike Adrian Dantley, who you mentioned earlier, he's not as one-dimensional because he's also a GOAT-tier rebounder.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#59 » by Jaivl » Thu Sep 14, 2023 8:59 am

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:You mention Wade "upsetting back-to-back 6-SRS teams with middling support" - I just want to mention that Shaq was still there. I know he was in decline by 2006, but he put up 21.7 and 10.5 on 65.5% FG in the ECF vs the Pistons against the Big Ben/Rasheed frontcourt. His Finals volume was lower(largely due to two below-average games out of six), but his efficiency was still elite - 13.7 and 10.2 on 60.7% FG. Shaq averaged 18.4/9.8 on 57.1% TS throughout those playoffs, and he had a 4.85 RS+PO RAPM per J.E. in 2005-06.

20/10 or 14/10, Shaq's honestly nothing more than a glorified Zach Randolph at that point. Capable scorer with really nothing more to offer, probably a low-level all-star and a far cry from your typical title 2nd option.

Also, that +4.85 RAPM (#11 in the league) is prior informed and very dependend on his earlier, much better form (top 5 every year 98-05). Over the whole season, Miami...

With Shaq and Wade - 2097 min, +8.9
With Wade w/o Shaq - 1755 min, +7.4
With Shaq w/o Wade - 468 min, -7.7
Without either - 740 min, -9.9

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:Wade was the #1 option in 2006 but, say what you want about the rest of the roster, the Heat aren't winning that championship without Shaq. It may seem irrelevant to the debate at hand, but since so much of Wade's case seems to center on that title run, I just think it's important that we don't diminish Shaq's role in it for the sake of making it appear a bigger carry job than it was for Wade. And also that we acknowledge the, ahem, friendly whistle Wade was getting in those playoffs. It wasn't the 94 Rockets or the 03 Spurs.

It wasn't the 94 Rockets or the 03 Spurs - it was legitimately more impressive than either one.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/16/23) 

Post#60 » by One_and_Done » Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:26 am

Wade deserves to get in soon, but let's call it like it is. The 2006 Heat are probably the weakest champion of the last 25 years, and the flukiest and least likely to repeat; which is how it felt at the time, and was immediately validated.
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