RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Jimmy Butler)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#41 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 13, 2023 6:22 am

Owly wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Fair counter for Ben, and it was unfair for me to group him with Dikembe and Mourning without commenting on how he was a step above. I should have said more willing playmaker — which is a function of Ben’s own inability.

With Ben what it comes down to is that I am substantially more impressed by what Thurmond achieved in bringing his team to the 1967 Finals (and seriously threatening to upset the Lakers in the 1969 playoffs) than I am by Ben winning a title and nearly another on an incredible team. I agree he was their “best” player in 2004, but I think Thurmond would have been even more clear in Ben’s place. You rightly praise how Shaq was handled, but Thurmond is the singular figure most famous for his ability to disrupt opposing bigs. I am willing to defer a bit to proven success, but a supporting lineup of Billups/Rip/Tayshaun/Rasheed is better than anything Thurmond ever saw in his prime (there may be an argument for the 1975 Bulls in his post-prime… but seeing how close they were to upsetting the Warriors, I feel pretty confident that prime Thurmond on that team produces a title as well).

I really do not see “the 1975 Warriors moved on from an old and frequently injured Thurmond for a younger and healthier centre while also adding the rookie of the year, and then they won the title,” as being the sort of argument which should convince anyone. Are we going to argue Eddie Jones was some deleterious figure because the Lakers threepeated after he was traded away and the Heat won their first title the year after he left?

And as for the “Jerry West was injured” argument… Doc, that is also complete narrativising. Nothing in that season or West’s own career should give you any confidence in the Lakers that year even with a hypothetically healthy West.

First, the 1967 Warriors with Thurmond would have been by far the best team West ever beat pre-1972 Bucks. West’s own legacy is pretty much wholly tied to beating up on a weak conference and then losing narrowly to any good team, with the one exception also being one of West’s own individual worst series and overall postseasons.

Second, Thurmond’s Warriors directly outperformed the 8-time defending champion Celtics in their respective matchups against the best team the league had ever seen. They were a legitimately excellent team when Thurmond was playing.

Third, in contrast, those Lakers were the worst of West’s entire career. It was the only year they had a losing record with him, and while they did have a positive point differential when he played, that was also a career-low mark. That team was not good or serious even with him, but somehow you want to argue they would have gone on the road (West had a 40% playoff win rate outside of Los Angeles and had the only road series win of his career in 1970 against a 0.3 SRS Hawks team) to face a +4.5 team (again, substantially better than any he ever beat pre-1972 Bucks)… and won? That is not realistic.

So no, his injury is not a remotely relevant consideration to me, especially when two years later a Warriors team without Barry won the first two games in Los Angeles before their only legitimate source of offence went down with injury. I could just as easily argue the Warriors were primed to be the new conference dynasty had Barry stayed and Thurmond not been so frequently injured himself. They lost two of the next three postseasons to Thurmond’s injuries, and then the third was similarly derailed by injury to their only functional offensive weapon. None of these names ever overcame something like that, so why penalise Thurmond for it?


Re: Was Jones deleterious because traded away before title? In the case of Jones what you have are situations where another player at his same position was stronger at his strengths than he was, so I wouldn't call Jones deleterious simply because he was weaker than someone very strong.

Thurmond though I don't think was replaced by a better defender, so we're talking about improving the offense by having a bad, aka deleterious, offensive player be relegated and eventually removed.

Not sure Rice was stronger at his strengths (or net better) than Jones was. Jones and Kobe were both starting in '99.

Across year stuff can be hazardous and generalizing from it too. What does one make of Lee, Russell, Barnett. What of Smith, Wilkes, Dudley (and latterly Bridges at the margins) [PF is definitely more offensively tilted, spaced now Wilkes in for Lee]. How close was Thurmond to his best in the last year in GS? How good does one think Ray is? How much does one think holdovers got net better/worse? There's probably a lot of cumulative wiggle room there. Not saying it's wrong doing things this way but people could come to very different opinions.


So to be clear I was thinking of Kobe & Wade when I was thinking of teams moving on from Eddie.

Just because Kobe & Eddie started together for 20 games doesn't mean that they played different positions, nor that Eddie & Glen played the same position. I would suggest that if Eddie had Rice's size they probably don't make that trade.

I would also suggest that if not for Kobe, they wouldn't even consider trading Eddie.

I'd also say it's a mistake to think that the Lakers "made the right move by getting in Rice a guy with a better fit" as one might think. The team got worse as they moved from Eddie to Glen. Yes they improved the year after with Rice and won a title, but he was soon moved on from because he never really gave them what they were after.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#42 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 13, 2023 6:34 am

Induction Vote 1: Paul Arizin

Image

Moving Arizin up to my top Induction Vote now that he's in. I'll include my prior post below without spoilers this time, but in a nutshell:

In a nutshell I think Paul Arizin was the best offensive player we saw in the league until Oscar & West showed up, and at his best I definitely have him above rival Schayes. His weird disjointed career hurts him on my list up to a point, but there just aren't many guys who stand out to me like this across the eras, and while he certainly played in a weaker era than what came later, I think in general the top guys from earlier eras have shown an ability to continue to look great against new generations of talent in NBA history. There are exceptions to this of course, and those exceptions tell stories of obsolescent techniques and problematic decision making. Arizin on the other hand is basically just the sort of guy we'd expect to see a gentle decay in dominance with increased competition.

Okay I'm going to just add on to what I was saying before because I want to address some of the things others brought up.

Previous post:
I'm really sold on Arizin as a player. I think at his best he was the best non-big the NBA ever saw until Oscar & West showed up, and I'd say arguably he was the most modern player the NBA saw until them also. This was a guy who was known for his one-handed jump shot at a time when this was not yet the norm, and he was also known for slashing his way to the basket.

For the early to mid stages of his career, he was also someone who seemed to correlate greatly with his team's success. Now, by moonbeam's RWOWY he comes off more mild here in favor of teammate Tom Gola, and I'm willing to have that conversation given that Gola was supposed to be a best-in-world candidate coming out of college, but my guess is that what we're seeing here is that Gola's arrival on the team coincided with Arizin really getting his sea legs back after the military service, and since that took a year, that prior year gets effectively held against him.

I will say there are considerable longevity concerns with Arizin, and frankly that's why I didn't vote for him earlier.
There are also concerns about why the later years with Wilt didn't feel like a team with overwhelming talent, and there while my answer would be the style of play the Warriors chose to play around Wilt, it doesn't change the fact that Arizin's impact didn't age as well as we'd like in practice.

Am I saying Arizin had poor impact?

Definitely not saying that. I'm acknowledging that Moonbeam's RWOWY did not show Arizin as that impressive and bringing up the teammate (Gola) who came off looking better. I'm giving brief explanation for how I take that for data. Happy to talk about it in more detail, just a question of what would be helpful to communicate.

The essence of the situation is that RWOWY is going to hold a Player A's improvement against him if Player B's arrival coincides with that improvement. Arizin improved his second year back in the NBA much like you'd hope give that he had been much better previously, and I don't think it's reasonable to say something like "That was Gola's impact on Arizin!".

Why champion Arizin when he doesn't stand out that much within his own era?

Arizin does stand out to me though. I have him as my OPOY in '51-52, '55-56 & '56-57, and he qualifies as an Offensive Player of the Decade (OPOD) for me taking over from George Mikan, preceding Bob Pettit.

I would also consider Arizin to have the best offensive peak of the '50s, and would name him my POY in his championship season.

I am curious who else people think stands out as much as Arizin from his own era, but I have seen another name mentioned here from the era that intrigues me.

Might it be that Cliff Hagan should rank higher than Arizin?

So, I like that Hagan's emerged as such a strong contender over time. I think it does make sense to ask whether Hagan could have set the world on fire with big numbers all season long if he were simply unleashed, but when it comes to achievement, I think there's a pretty basic bump you have to get over:

Based on regular season accolades, Hagan just isn't a guy getting much love. Only 6 all-star appearances to Arizin's 10 for example.

So, Hagan's almost certainly getting the nod over Arizin and a bunch of others based on his playoff performances. Makes sense, but I think we need to be very careful when looking at stats from the entire post-season to assert things like Hagan was the true MVP of the Hawks' chip. When we look at the finals, it really seems crystal clear that Pettit would have won that Finals MVP by a landslide and deservedly so.

I previously said that George Gervin has more POY Shares by my personal votes than Arizin, so why vote for Arizin over Gervin?

So, one of the things here is that the period where Gervin was racking up his shares was a really weird period. I literally have Gervin as my POY in '77-78, but it wasn't exactly the most satisfying of seasons with both Walton & Kareem's seasons disrupted, and Gervin's Spurs getting upset in their first playoff series. Getting upset in the playoffs was a thing for those Spurs and while that doesn't necessarily say anything concretely about Gervin, it leaves some doubts at the least.

I see Arizin as the guy with championship belt in his era among perimeter players for being best able to take it to opposing defenses all the way through the deep end of the playoffs...and I just can't say I see Gervin the same way.

Now, as we've talked about many times before, I'm not evaluating players for this project by considering them in other eras. I can definitely see the argument that Gervin's era was better than Arizin's so that should make up for the difference, but I'm cautious.

Does a player really "stand out" if he doesn't show up as massively on PER, WS/48/ BPM as another guy from another era?

So, I do see the logic of this thought. If we're talking about stats that are already normalized for era, and a more modern guy looks better by them, what exactly is the reasoning for picking the guy from the past?

Let's first acknowledge that this general argument stands even if we find specific reasons why a particular guy is better or worse than these simple metrics say. All other things equal though, is there a basis for which we could say that the guy with the worse-normalized numbers in the weaker league somehow might be seen as more impressive by those numbers?

Big thing here I think is that in general alphas are claiming more of the box score stats (per minute) of their team more and more as we embrace more star-optimized systems. In some cases this is happening beyond what's actually best for the team, but even if we expect that it's mostly a good thing if the team is choosing to do it, there's a question of whether we want to do cross-era lists that ended up getting dominated by guys from ultra-high-alpha-primacy eras simply because they are ultra-high-alpha-primacy eras.

Incidentally statistically, the thing worth determining are the standard deviations of these stats over the years.[/spoiler]

Induction Vote 2: Jimmy Butler

Butler vs Gervin is the comparison still on my mind.

I find Butler's playoff success to be an incredibly impressive thing relative to his regular season baseline, and this is a place where Gervin's resume is lacking. Am I being held prisoner by winning bias? Continuing to consider.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#43 » by 70sFan » Wed Dec 13, 2023 10:34 am

For the Thurmond conversation - I strongly disagree with the most of Nate criticism in this thread, but unfortunately I have been busy lately and I won't make a long response to that right now. Instead, I want to give you some glimpses of prime Thurmond in action:

1964/65
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/CD0s64AFP8g


1966/67


1967/68


1969/70
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/ZOzDGfEr87Y


1971/72


1972/73
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/Y3tUFhDr4Yk
https://youtu.be/-RwoHjztT80


1973/74
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/atEWVhSmdaY
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#44 » by OhayoKD » Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:33 am

Yeah so, feels like people are ignoring the elephant in the room with these defensive-specialist comps:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Owly wrote:I think the general belief is WS weights shooting efficiency too much.
For that reason, among others, I'll say Thurmond vs Big Ben is a close call to me, and I'm not 100% sure where I"d come down on that.

But with guys like Mutombo and Mourning...if their defensive impact is comparable to Thurmond, and they're both much more efficient scorers, then again, I wouldn't be confident in taking Thurmond over them.


iggymcfrack wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I was looking at cumulative win shares compared to Mourning after you brought them up and I see Thurmond has 78 WS in 36K minutes compared to 90 WS in 26K minutes for Mourning.


Sure, Deke, Thurmond, and Ben are all defensive specialists.

However, only one of these players was a defensive specialist in the period when the most statistically impactful(or 2nd most if you want to use raw srs) player in history was also a defensive specialist. Thurmond's career also overlaps with that of Walton's, who happened to have had a year where he had a case(at least statistically) as the most valuable player in the league to go with a dominant championship win and an MVP.

While I'm all for framing "production" with like for like comparisons, a certain form of "production" may flucutate in value which is especially relevant when, based on the cold data we have, thurmond, "by far" looks like the most impactful of the three.

As I have said before, along with others, there is no one objective "boxscore". There are the box-scores humans choose to build formulas around based on what they choose to count. So if you are going to make a box-score the emperical lynchpin of what you are arguing(especially in direct contradiction with numbers that care not for anyone's whims and agendas)...
Doctor MJ wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Why would we be using win shares to assess a player’s contribution to a team’s wins when we know for a fact that player’s team cratered at a historically high rate whenever that player missed time.

And look, he missed time, and that cost the team. We can penalise him accordingly, and I do. I have argued those injury absences were one of the key reasons the Warriors traded him away. But that is a distinct criticism from the formulas at which you two are glancing.


So, I think it's reasonable to not be that concerned with Thurmond's WS given his defensive orientation, but I also don't think that WS become irrelevant just because we have some impact data - and coarse data at that.
[/quote]
I think the expectation should be that the one who presents the box-score they have chosen explains the relevance. Not on others to show it's irrelevance.

What makes winshares or similar stats or the box-score it is derived from more useful in assessing a defensive specialist from the 60's/70's than simply me looking at their effect on opposing big-man effenciency(in which case Thurmond becomes the clear standout), or counting the amount of possessions spent at the rim(i am willing to track that if someone can provide me footage and expresses interest though i suspecr 70s has done something similar).

Winshares is just a formula based on subjective weightings of subjectively defined basketball actions. It is educated cherrypicking. And look, an extended eyetest can be very useful in the right circumstances, but it is an extended eyetest, and this discussion seems to be operating on the premise that it is something more.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#45 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:12 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Yeah so, feels like people are ignoring the elephant in the room with these defensive-specialist comps:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:


Sure, Deke, Thurmond, and Ben are all defensive specialists.

However, only one of these players was a defensive specialist in the period when the most statistically impactful(or 2nd most if you want to use raw srs) player in history was also a defensive specialist. Thurmond's career also overlaps with that of Walton's, who happened to have had a year where he had a case(at least statistically) as the most valuable player in the league to go with a dominant championship win and an MVP.

While I'm all for framing "production" with like for like comparisons, a certain form of "production" may flucutate in value which is especially relevant when, based on the cold data we have, thurmond, "by far" looks like the most impactful of the three.

As I have said before, along with others, there is no one objective "boxscore". There are the box-scores humans choose to build formulas around based on what they choose to count. So if you are going to make a box-score the emperical lynchpin of what you are arguing(especially in direct contradiction with numbers that care not for anyone's whims and agendas)...
Doctor MJ wrote:
So, I think it's reasonable to not be that concerned with Thurmond's WS given his defensive orientation, but I also don't think that WS become irrelevant just because we have some impact data - and coarse data at that.

I think the expectation should be that the one who presents the box-score they have chosen explains the relevance. Not on others to show it's irrelevance.

What makes winshares or similar stats or the box-score it is derived from more useful in assessing a defensive specialist from the 60's/70's than simply me looking at their effect on opposing big-man effenciency(in which case Thurmond becomes the clear standout), or counting the amount of possessions spent at the rim(i am willing to track that if someone can provide me footage and expresses interest though i suspecr 70s has done something similar).

Winshares is just a formula based on subjective weightings of subjectively defined basketball actions. It is educated cherrypicking. And look, an extended eyetest can be very useful in the right circumstances, but it is an extended eyetest, and this discussion seems to be operating on the premise that it is something more.


It's funny you bring up Walton, because Walton won as many playoff series in one championship run as Thurmond did in his entire career until he was coming off the bench averaging <5 PPG. I would be very sympathetic to an argument that Thurmond provided more value than his numbers showed in an era where rim protection was paramount, but that's not what I see at all. I see someone who had a shocking lack of team success relative to his reputation and then saw his team win the championship as soon as he left. It's the same reason I'm not impressed with Elgin Baylor and would not have voted him in yet if it was my decision.

The thing about playing in the early days of the NBA is it was actually MUCH, MUCH easier to win a title and MUCH, MUCH easier to reach the Finals. If you're still struggling to find success against that level of competition and that few teams, I think it's a major red flag, especially since we don't have any impact data to argue against it. Not winning and not being able to put up numbers comparable with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo is a pretty damning combination for someone playing in an incredibly weak and favorable era.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#46 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:21 pm

70sFan wrote:For the Thurmond conversation - I strongly disagree with the most of Nate criticism in this thread, but unfortunately I have been busy lately and I won't make a long response to that right now. Instead, I want to give you some glimpses of prime Thurmond in action:

1964/65
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/CD0s64AFP8g


1966/67


1967/68


1969/70
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/ZOzDGfEr87Y


1971/72


1972/73
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/Y3tUFhDr4Yk
https://youtu.be/-RwoHjztT80


1973/74
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/atEWVhSmdaY


I know you're busy so if you don't want to comment, that's fine, but other than a few extra years in the league and a little better passing, do you think Thurmond has any advantages on Rudy Gobert? It feels like he was significantly less dominant as a defender while also being less effective offensively and a worse rebounder, and they had a similar lack of success in the playoffs.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#47 » by AEnigma » Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:25 pm

Was not too passionate about Gervin last round, so still in a state where there are multiple yet to be nominated players whom I would vote over the current field. For this vote, I do trust Butler more than Payton in the postseason, but right now it is tied and I am inclined to let it go to tiebreakers.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#48 » by LA Bird » Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:35 pm

Vote: Jimmy Butler

Wasn't planning on voting this round but it seems like a tight race so I'll do a quick writeup. I have been quite high on Butler since 2017 and he has only gotten better since then. Besides one outlier series when injured (2021 vs Bucks), Miami Butler has consistently been a very strong postseason performer with the team success to match. Even in the regular season, he has low key had some great box score aggregates because of low turnovers, fouls and high free throw rates. Butler's biggest weakness is missing 15+ games almost every season of his career but it does give an insight into his impact (around +14* win rate in most seasons). Unlike a few perimeter stars who gave up on defense once their offensive load increased, Butler has also continued to be a strong defensive player.

Edit: +14 win rate per AEnigma's post below. I knew I would make mistakes with a quick writeup without checking the numbers.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#49 » by AEnigma » Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:47 pm

For the Heat I get lift of roughly 39 wins without to 51 wins with. 12, not 20.

For the 2017-19 Wolves, 34 wins without to 47 wins with. 13, still not 20.

For the 2017/18 Bulls, 26 wins without to 43 wins with. Higher at 17, but still not 20.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#50 » by 70sFan » Wed Dec 13, 2023 3:15 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:I know you're busy so if you don't want to comment, that's fine, but other than a few extra years in the league and a little better passing, do you think Thurmond has any advantages on Rudy Gobert? It feels like he was significantly less dominant as a defender while also being less effective offensively and a worse rebounder, and they had a similar lack of success in the playoffs.

Yeah, I think he definitely wasn't "significantly less dominant as a defender". He was a more effective in the postseason than Gobert and his defense was more versatile. He also seemed to have more in-era impact than Gobert.

I am way higher on Gobert than most by the way, give him another 2 years and he'd fight for top 50 in my list.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#51 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Dec 13, 2023 3:44 pm

My vote is for Joel Embiid - God like regular season player but hasn't quite put it together in the post season yet. Hard to say if his game is legitimately not transferable or if injuries are playing a factor in his decline. Either way, it seems like as a scorer he is on another level from nearly everyone left while still being a versatile player.

My alternate vote is for Paul Arizin - I forgot about Paul. I'm not as high on Paul as I used to be but he still was more or less the best player in the league at one point. He won the title as "the guy" and did so playing very well. Paul was alright as an older player, ups and downs for sure. Very impressive player to look at film compared to his competition, seems like he was way ahead of his time. I'd favor him over the defensive specialist like Thurmond/Payton.

Enigma made a lot of good points with Thurmond which reinstated my faith in voting for him. I'll likely switch back to Nate if Paul gets in.

Finally got around to reading some Butler arguments. I'm boosting him up my ranks but not to the point where I'd vote for him yet.

Payton is less impressive to me than the last time I looked at him. Just don't think he really tips the scale in a meaningful enough way. He's not great at what his position should be great at (in an all time sense), and the thing he is great at is what his position is weakest in. He never really "dominated" or had a really crazy run either that I can think of.

Gervin - I've never been convinced that Gervin was a great player, so hopefully this time around is when it happens. Just seems like such a one dimensional player, and I don't know if his scoring is enough to overcome all those negatives AND be placed above the top 60 best players.


My nomination is for Bill Walton

My alternate nomination is for Willis Reed
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#52 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:38 pm

Hey y’all internet is down at my office which means I can’t tally things well (from my phone). I’m going to do a soft tally. If others confirm before I can and want to create the next thread, that’s fine by me.


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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#53 » by AEnigma » Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:43 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y’all internet is down at my office which means I can’t tally things well (from my phone). I’m going to do a soft tally. If others confirm before I can and want to create the next thread, that’s fine by me.

Did a few soft tallies this morning and think it is tied between Payton and Butler, but always good to have multiple eyes on that.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#54 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:50 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Payton is less impressive to me than the last time I looked at him. Just don't think he really tips the scale in a meaningful enough way. He's not great at what his position should be great at (in an all time sense), and the thing he is great at is what his position is weakest in. He never really "dominated" or had a really crazy run either that I can think of.



Re: the bolded
Same could basically be said of Nikola Jokic, no? Did you use it against him that he's atypical for the position he plays?


re: "dominated" and "tips the scale in a meaningful enough way"
He was 6th in the league in RAPM in '00, and that while being 2nd in mpg and minutes played. That's at least weak-MVP level, based on impact alone.
And fwiw, that is consistent with the box-based broad strokes for that year: was 8th in PER, 9th in WS/48, and 4th in BPM (again: while playing more minutes than everyone except Michael Finley).

He has a number of years that are arguably not far off of that (though it is his best finish in terms of RAPM).

Then considering the total length of career of usefulness (noting that even a merely decent player tips the scale a little).....idk.....

If you want to say he doesn't tick some of the "legacy narrative boxes".....OK.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#55 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:57 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y’all internet is down at my office which means I can’t tally things well (from my phone). I’m going to do a soft tally. If others confirm before I can and want to create the next thread, that’s fine by me.

Did a few soft tallies this morning and think it is tied between Payton and Butler, but always good to have multiple eyes on that.


I've got the count as:

Payton - 4
Butler - 3
Arizin - 3
Embiid - 2
Thurmond - 1

Eliminating the bottom two transfers two Butler, 1 to Arizin:

Payton - 4
Butler - 5
Arizin - 4

Shame [for my preference], since Payton has at least two alternate votes that I saw, and more first choice than anyone :(.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#56 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 13, 2023 5:04 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y’all internet is down at my office which means I can’t tally things well (from my phone). I’m going to do a soft tally. If others confirm before I can and want to create the next thread, that’s fine by me.

Did a few soft tallies this morning and think it is tied between Payton and Butler, but always good to have multiple eyes on that.


I've got the count as:

Payton - 4
Butler - 3
Arizin - 3
Embiid - 2
Thurmond - 1

Eliminating the bottom two transfers two Butler, 1 to Arizin:

Payton - 4
Butler - 5
Arizin - 4

Shame [for my preference], since Payton has at least two alternate votes that I saw, and more first choice than anyone :(.

That’s what I just got too.

So looks like Jimmy Butler is Inducted. If you want to open the next thread go right ahead.


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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#57 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 13, 2023 5:35 pm

Looks like internet is back. Going to quick post the next thread.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#58 » by Owly » Wed Dec 13, 2023 9:03 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Owly wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Re: Was Jones deleterious because traded away before title? In the case of Jones what you have are situations where another player at his same position was stronger at his strengths than he was, so I wouldn't call Jones deleterious simply because he was weaker than someone very strong.

Thurmond though I don't think was replaced by a better defender, so we're talking about improving the offense by having a bad, aka deleterious, offensive player be relegated and eventually removed.

Not sure Rice was stronger at his strengths (or net better) than Jones was. Jones and Kobe were both starting in '99.

Across year stuff can be hazardous and generalizing from it too. What does one make of Lee, Russell, Barnett. What of Smith, Wilkes, Dudley (and latterly Bridges at the margins) [PF is definitely more offensively tilted, spaced now Wilkes in for Lee]. How close was Thurmond to his best in the last year in GS? How good does one think Ray is? How much does one think holdovers got net better/worse? There's probably a lot of cumulative wiggle room there. Not saying it's wrong doing things this way but people could come to very different opinions.


So to be clear I was thinking of Kobe & Wade when I was thinking of teams moving on from Eddie.

Just because Kobe & Eddie started together for 20 games doesn't mean that they played different positions, nor that Eddie & Glen played the same position. I would suggest that if Eddie had Rice's size they probably don't make that trade.

I would also suggest that if not for Kobe, they wouldn't even consider trading Eddie.

I'd also say it's a mistake to think that the Lakers "made the right move by getting in Rice a guy with a better fit" as one might think. The team got worse as they moved from Eddie to Glen. Yes they improved the year after with Rice and won a title, but he was soon moved on from because he never really gave them what they were after.

Agree that they "didn't play dif... positions" fundamentally ... but Jones was good, flexible enough that both teams did well with him at the 3 that season (unless you want to say Kobe and Phills were 3s). Think it's entirely possible to keep both, start two athletic multi-tooled wings. (fwiw was Kobe a better night to night defender, 3pt shooter, athlete ...?).

Tend to agree they got worse, that's kind of the point (not that Thurmond at that point is necessarily better than Ray at that point but the team comp is a complex picture with moving parts and humans changing over time.

And if LA traded Jones for Rice because the official listing for the top of his head was two inches taller (actually that's Reference listings, but in career I've seen Rice listed 6'7 ... the gap could be smaller), he carried more weight (but not necessarily in a good way - later Rice was fat, some Miami era pics his face looks a bit "baby fat" round, though how far you want to trust that ...), but certainly wasn't any better at defending the 3 position, was a similar level rebound producer
...
I mean I'd say they were ... let's say silly ... but then just about any reason one gives ... Rice had been a bit better scorer and a purer distance shooter (and points back then ...) ... he was more than 4 years older, more expensive (trading with a team notorious getting cold feet in terms of big money commitments), much worse defensively by reputation, coming off an injury not having played that season thus far, they wouldn't know this but by the last season worse across all three Reference box-aggregates so in retrospect, probably a worse box-score ... and you need throw in Elden Campbell too. I don't know what the tipping point in changing things would have to be for LA to say no but ... I think the sensible one was a way in the rear view mirror.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#59 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:42 am

trex_8063 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Payton is less impressive to me than the last time I looked at him. Just don't think he really tips the scale in a meaningful enough way. He's not great at what his position should be great at (in an all time sense), and the thing he is great at is what his position is weakest in. He never really "dominated" or had a really crazy run either that I can think of.



Re: the bolded
Same could basically be said of Nikola Jokic, no? Did you use it against him that he's atypical for the position he plays?



Okay..I don't appreciate the sass but

1) Jokic wasn't exactly voted at #1, so I don't even know what you're saying. The Jokic comment is so abstract, use it against him for what ranking?

2) Read the bold part. If Payton had been a dominating player or dominating at the things he was good at then it would be different. If he had a crazy run like some other all time greats then that would be different.

Jokic is not a DOMINATING offensive player for a center, he is a DOMINATING offensive player against any position. If Payton's defense translated into something like Dikembe Mutumbo levels or he was a scorer like Jerry West then it would be different, but he was not that much of an outlier. He isn't even on the defensive level of Jason Kidd much less an army of front court men.

Jokic is such an outlier on offense, if he had been the equivalent for defense instead he would basically be Bill Russell. So again, I don't get how this is applicable to Gary Payton unless you're taking just an attribute from my comment and running with it.

"Weak MVP" isn't unique still at this point in the project, that's assuming he even was one. Getting top ten in RAPM one year sounds very much like he is not an MVP level player to me but I'll digress.

If Payton had an insane playoffs like Jimmy Butler or Cliff Hagen then that could be something to latch onto. If he had a STRONG MVP season like Joel Embiid (not a "weak one" whatever that is) then that would be something for me to get around. As of now he was just a really good all-nba player, which is fine, but not what I value at this point in the project.

There are still players who were actual MVP candidates at this point in the project, and there were players who tore up the playoffs still. That is what I meant by an insane run.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #52 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/13/2023) 

Post#60 » by OhayoKD » Thu Dec 14, 2023 7:40 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Yeah so, feels like people are ignoring the elephant in the room with these defensive-specialist comps:


Sure, Deke, Thurmond, and Ben are all defensive specialists.

However, only one of these players was a defensive specialist in the period when the most statistically impactful(or 2nd most if you want to use raw srs) player in history was also a defensive specialist. Thurmond's career also overlaps with that of Walton's, who happened to have had a year where he had a case(at least statistically) as the most valuable player in the league to go with a dominant championship win and an MVP.

While I'm all for framing "production" with like for like comparisons, a certain form of "production" may flucutate in value which is especially relevant when, based on the cold data we have, thurmond, "by far" looks like the most impactful of the three.

As I have said before, along with others, there is no one objective "boxscore". There are the box-scores humans choose to build formulas around based on what they choose to count. So if you are going to make a box-score the emperical lynchpin of what you are arguing(especially in direct contradiction with numbers that care not for anyone's whims and agendas)...

I think the expectation should be that the one who presents the box-score they have chosen explains the relevance. Not on others to show it's irrelevance.

What makes winshares or similar stats or the box-score it is derived from more useful in assessing a defensive specialist from the 60's/70's than simply me looking at their effect on opposing big-man effenciency(in which case Thurmond becomes the clear standout), or counting the amount of possessions spent at the rim(i am willing to track that if someone can provide me footage and expresses interest though i suspecr 70s has done something similar).

Winshares is just a formula based on subjective weightings of subjectively defined basketball actions. It is educated cherrypicking. And look, an extended eyetest can be very useful in the right circumstances, but it is an extended eyetest, and this discussion seems to be operating on the premise that it is something more.


It's funny you bring up Walton, because Walton won as many playoff series in one championship run as Thurmond did in his entire career until he was coming off the bench averaging <5 PPG. I would be very sympathetic to an argument that Thurmond provided more value than his numbers showed in an era where rim protection was paramount, but that's not what I see at all.

Maybe take another look?
968
32-19(.627) with
11-20(.355) without

1970
21-22(.488) with
9-30(.231) without

Weak era and ringless are not refutations for him looking extremely valuable over large samples empirically.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL

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