Retro Player of the Year 2014-15

[Top10alltime]

Ok, time to vote:

1. LeBron: This is a Lebron down season. Looks like Steph is the best in the world, and yes, I do believe that Lebron was below Steph in the RS (although this was due to a back injury), although he was still a top 3 RS player in the league at that point. After Lebron's missed games, his team played at a 67 win pace. LeBron also took his team's offense to the 3rd best in league behind GSW, and LAC.

We then get to the playoffs, where Lebron looks like the clear POY. Steph's Warriors have a +2.7 rORtg, and a -10.1 rDRtg, so I'd give Draymond credit instead of Steph. But we get to the Cavs who..

-> Has a -5.4 defense anchored by Lebron
-> Has a MASSIVE jump from RS to PO (+3.72 SRS jump!!)
-> Sweeps a 60 win team with Kyrie only playing 48 mins in ECF, K. Love out.
-> Without both of his best teammates, takes 2 games from the stacked Warriors

Also, despite his efficiency dropping (can be attributed to Love missing the PO), his volume and his creation jumped. So did his defensive value.
So in a down season from Lebron, I'll still take him 1st.



2. CP3: For those of you that are shocked by this vote(putting CP3 over Steph), I will explain here:

CP3 is at his peak this season, and tbh he is probably better than Steph this season as well, I am moved by his peak. A clearly better defender, a clearly better playmaker (Steph on-ball was mid, and he was doing that a lot this year), and he was a top scorer this season(Granted, Steph is still better).
CP3 also had a worse situation offensively (Klay clears anyone CP3 has on his team), and yet.. he still had an offense that is 0.8 points better than Steph's stacked Warriors. Here is CP3 and Steph's teams adjusted rORTG in the playoffs.

CP3: +5.6 opp adjusted rORtg
Steph: +2.3 opp adjusted rORTG

He also does have a better PO, by a fairly large margin. His series against the Spurs CLEARS any series Steph has, and he was still had a fine series against the Rockets (injured tho), in his own right. Below is how injured CP3 did against second best defense itl.

This is what he looks like, by actual basketball

Spoiler:

Chris paul Game 7 against the SPURS in 2015 Offense only

Watch on YouTube

;t=5766s

Playmaking
-DTOs ( Defender take out )
-EDTOs ( Effective defender taken out )
- ADAs ( Additional defender affected )
-Double
-Triple
-Création ~ R’Creation ( Rim )/ P’Creation ( Prerimeter )
-SC ( Screen assist ) ( GHOST SCREEN DO NOT COUNT )
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
Scoring
-FGA
-FGM
-M ( midrange )
-P ( Post play )
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk )
-T ( 3pt )
-PB ( Putback )
-FTA + FTM
-OCT ( Offensive Contest )
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested )
- FD ( Foul draw by defender )
( P - Possession. If your team get the Oreb or foul and your team get control of the ball it will be counted as same possession )
Q1
P1 = 3.20 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ and run to the paint. He get the ball back at the elbow then Jordan screen for him. CP pump fake and hit a midrange on parker ( FGA1 FGM1 M1 OCT1 )
P2 = 4.00 – blake attempt a fast break lay up but get foul. CP was on the clipper side
P3 = 5.24 – Blake fast break lob to barnes but he missed. CP was on the clipper side
P4 = 6.13 – Cp PNR with Jordan. He drive to Duncan blocking lane so he bounce pass to open blake at ft line which he make the shot ( DTOs1-2-3 EDTOs1 ADAs1 P’creation1 EPDL1 )
P5 = 6.50 – CP top keys see JJ running off ball so he pass but kawhi get a tight contest make JJ miss
P6 = 7.16 – CP top keys pass to blake with kawhi on him. The pass is too high for kawhi to intercept so blake get the ball and drive for a foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P6 = 7.40 – CP run to top keys with Jordan screen for him and he pass to JJ open at 3PT line cause Jordan make a moving screen on parker but JJ missed ( DTOs4-5 ADAs2 P’creation2 RPDL1 )
P7 = 8.22 – CP get the ball from JJ and drive pass parker with Jordan screening for him and attempt a midrange ( FGA2 M2 OCT2 )
P8 = 8.51 – JJ have the ball then pass to cp but CP set back. JJ drive kick to CP. CP pass to blake who get double team so he pass to barnes for open 3pt
P9 = 9.54 – CP boxing for position with Parker around the court and Blake hit a jumper on Duncan
P10 = 10.18 – Blake take the ball fast break b fake drive to double team and bounce pass to Barner for open 3pt but MISSED
P11 = 10.43 – CP top of the keys pass to barnes open at the corner cause Jordan was screening kawhi away ( DTOs6-7 ADAs3 P’creation3 EPDL2 )
P12 = 11.14 – fast break CP pass the ball to barnes at the logo. Barnes get pick by green so he pull up 3pt but missed
P13 = 11.50 -Cp get the ball and attempt to beat parker off the dribble but blake come screen for him. Parker foul the screen ( CLIPPER BALL )
P14 = 12.17 – JJ find barnes at the corner who drive lay up
P15 = 13.05 – CP pass to JJ who drive and kick back. Blake come GHOST screen and roll so CP who get double pass to blake who pass to JJ. JJ pumk fake and miss the long 2pt. Jordan get the OREB and pass to barnes who lay it up ( DTOs8-9 EDTOs2 R’creation1 RPDL2 )
P16 = 15.00 – CP on the logo with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Cp Drive to a double pass to glen hit a long 2pt ( DTOs10-11-12 EDTOs3-4 P’Creation4 RPDL3 )
P17 = 16.35 - CP on the top Keys with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Then drive to Duncan blocking lane then pass to glen who didn’t attempt a shot but make bad pass TOV ( DTOs13-14-15-16 EDTOs5-6 ADAs4 P’Creation5 RPDL4 )
P18 =17.10 – CP in transition beat Mills off the dribble and hit a open 3pt ( FGA3 FGM2 T1 OUCT1 )
Q2
P19 = 30.30 – CP offball top of keys with kawhi on him. Crawford attempt a long 2pt but missed Jordan is there to putback and get foul
P20 = 31.36 – CP bring ball up full court then pass to crawford when kawhi press him on the drive. Crawford pass the ball to blake who pump fake and get foul in the paint
P21 = 33.04 – CP bring ball up get press by kawhi Jordan come screen so CP drive away. Kawhi slip was screen at press CP. Jordan another screen on kawhi then CP drive pass to blake who pass to barnes at the post ( DTOs17-18-19 EDTOs7 ADAs5 RPDL5 )
P22 = 33.26 – CP on transition get the ball kick out ( CLIPPER BALL )
P23 = 33.50 – CP get ball hand off to blake cause Kawhi pressing. Get the ball back and make a great pass to blake for a open lay up cause boris try to gamble and make Blake open ( DTOs20 EDTOs8 R’creation2 EPDL3 )
P24 = 34.11 – CP pass the ball to JJ for a transition 3pt but miss
P25 = 35.48 – CP pass to JJ. JJ drive with Jordan help screen then GREEN foul the screener ( CLIPPER BALL )
P26 = 36.07 – CP pass to jj who beat his man off the dribble and attempt a shot but Green come back in time to snatch the ball out JJ shot attempt
P27 = 37.12 – CP on logo with kawhi barnes and glen come screen. CP drive to the elbow get double then pass to open glen who drive lay up but missed Jordan is there to clean up ( Double1 DTOs21-22-23 EDTOs9 ADAs6 P’creation6 RPDL6 )
P28 = 38.22 – Cp bring ball up get press by kawhi so he pass to Jordan and get the ball back. Kawhi too physical and fouls CP ( FD1 FTA1-2 FTM1-2 )
P29 = 39.34 – Barnes screen kawhi for CP. CP drive dribble around the court to beat out kawhi and he get double team so he bounce pass to Jordan but the pass is to slow so Duncan close up force Jordan to pass. Duncan kick ball ( CLIPPER BALL ) ( DOUBLE2 BPDL1 )
P30 = 40.07 – CP pass to JJ then get ball back with kawhi on him jordantry screen but kawhi get pass. Cp attempt drive with kawhi on him see parker overcommitted so he pass to barnes for a 3pt but missed ( DTOs24-25 EDTOs10 P’creation7 RPDL7 )
P31 = 40.53 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to glen on top keys. Glen pass to crawford and run a PNR but fail
P32 = 42.17 – CP beat kawhi off the dribble to the paint and step back midrange on his face ( FGA4 FGM3 M3 OCT3 )
P33 = 42.40 – CP pump fake then hand off to glen who give back and screen for CP. Then get double pass to glen but bad pass make Duncan close out and contest the shot ( Double3 DTOs26-27 EDTOs11 BPDL2 )
P34 = 43.07 – CP drive on kawhi and tiago come double. CP pass to glen who cut and lay up ( Double4 DTOs28-29 EDTOs12 R’creation3 EPDL4 )
P35 = 44.10 – cp BRING BALL UP but Jordan get foul off ball for FT
P35 = 45.06 – Glen get the OREB from Jordan miss FT pass to JJ who pass to crawford for a 3pt
P36 = 46.00 – Jordan got hacked for FT
P37 = 47.15 – CP get the ball try to shoot to beat the beezer but didn’t get it out in time
Q3
P38 = 48.02 – CP get the ball pass to blake at ft line. Blake fake drive and pass to barnes at 3pt line MISSED
P39 = 48.20 – CP transition bounce pass to blake at the logo. Blake post up Duncan no look pass to barnes who cut and reset the ball to blake. Blake get double team in the post pass to open CP on 3pt line for a 3pt ( FGA5 FGM4 T2 OCT4 )
P40 = 49.15 – CP at the logo with parker on him pass to JJ who break Green ankle and attempt a shot
P41 = 49.40 – CP get the ball pass to barnes in transition but kawhi is there to stop him. So CP re get the ball. Make a PNR with Blake. Nearly get double so he pass out but the pass get deflected by parker ( Clipper ball ) ( BPDL3 )
P42 = 50.15 – blake get ball pass to barnes who cut for open dunk and ONE
P43 = 51.38 – CP drive on parker and kick the ball to blake then he screen tiago ( SC1 )
P44 = 52.12 – CP transition pull up from 3pt ( FGA6 FGM5 T3 OCT5 )
P45 = 52.45 – CP bring ball up in transition blake screen parker so CP pull up fro, 3pt but missed ( FGA7 T4 OUCT2 )
P46 = 53.16 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to blake who post up tiago. Blake miss the jumper
P47 = 53.37 – CP on transition pass to blake but balek get pick up so CP retake the ball. CP drive on tiago and get foul on top keys ( CLIPPER BALL )
P48 = 54.14 – CP on top keys pass to crawford who drive and got block by green
P49 = 54.30 – CP pass to blake who pass to open JJ in transition
P50 = 55.09 – CP blow by parker get pick by Duncan. So he pass to blake. Blake pull up on Duncan face ( DTOs29-30 ADAs7 RPDL8 )
P51 = 55.48 – Cp waiting in corner
P52 = 56.14 – CP get the ball at logo by JJ who earlier try to dribble around the ft area. CP drive try to bounce pass for crawford at corner but bad pass got steal ( BPDL4 )
P53 = 56.26 – CP have the ball in transition try to drive but the lane is too compacted. So he pass to jj who just get to half court. JJ get foul ( Clipper ball )
P53 = 57.03 – CP waiting in corner while blake dunk on boris head
P54 = 57.30 – CP in corner when Crawford TOV
P 55 = 58.05 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ who pass to blake and try to cut but get foul off ball ( Clipper ball but CP go rest )
P56 = 106.38 – CP bring ball up in transition to beat the clock. Get pass half court and Pull up at the STAPLES CENTER logo for a 3PT at the BUZZER ( FGA8 FGM6 T5 OUCT3 )
Q4
P57 = 108.10 – CP box with parker for position at 3pt line. Clipper got foul off ball ( CLIPPER BALL )
P57 = 108.30 – CP get ball with parker on him then switch with Blake to be on tiago and pass to blake who got a mismatch. Blake get double pass back for CP to pull up on tiago face ( FGA9 FGM7 T6 OCT6 )
P58 = 109.24 – CP at FT line screen for blake but blake got steal after ( SC2 )
P59 = 109.35 – CP pass to blake who run fast break. Blake pass to barnes for a dunk
P60 = 110.16 – CP drive pass to barnes who was open cause CP drive. But barnes pass to crawford who drive for a floater ( DTOs31-32-33 EDTOs13-14 P’creation8 RPDL9 )
P61 = 111.42 – CP try to beat parker off drbble then switch on tiago then parker come double so he pass to blake on the paint but Blake TRAVEL ( DTOs34-35 EDTOs15 R’Creation4 EPDL5 )
P62 = 112.28 – CP drive on parker with Jordan screening. CP see Duncan on the lane so he pass to blake. Get ball back pull up 2pt on nel face ( FGA10 FGM8 M4 OCT7 )
P63 = 113.20 – CP bring ball up pass to Jordan at top keys and pass to blake who cut for a layup and ONE
P64 =115.05 _ CP bring ball up pass to blake. Then blake run action with crawford and get foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P64 =115.39 – CP get ball pass to Crawford then to blake but got steal by green
P65 = 116.20 – CP bring ball up fast break 4 on 3 pass to JJ who pass to crawford fro open 3pt MISSED
P66 = 117.19 – CP bring ball up pass to blake at the post. Who then pass back to open CP cause Jordan screen for him. CP drive pass but get deflected ( Clipper ball )
P66 = 118.00 – Jordan get hacked
P67 = 119.10 – CP on top keys then Jordan come screen green. So Cp drive jump shot at long 2pt but missed. Parker get Dreb but CP pock it out off his gand to blake then parker foul blake (FGA11 M5 OUCT4 )
P68 = 120.45 – Duncan elbow CP on the head so jj IS THE ONE bring ball up in transition. JJ PNP with blake for a 3pt
P69 = 121.38 – CP in corner when JJ pump fake and hit another 3pt on green head
P70 = 122.20 – CP in corner try to move offball in paint but got press by kawhi so he comeback. Blake iso drive on Duncan for a foul
P71 = 124.54 – CP in corner then Blake drive make CP open. Blake pass the ball to CP who drive and attempt a tough layup MISSED ( FGA12 R1 OCT8 )
P72 = 125.10 – CP in transition drive pass to JJ but too far so JJ slow to get the ball and kawhi close up. JJ then drive to a double team and pass to barnes for a contested 3pt ( .DTOs36 BPDL5 )
P73 = 125.52 – CP PNR with blake then drive to double team of Duncan Green when pass to rolling blake who got block by green while attempting a dunk ( Double5 DTOs37-38-39 EDTOs16-17 R’creation5 EPDL6 )
P74 = 127.20 – CP drive bounce pass to blake too low blake have trouble to get the ball so he get press and pass to crawford for a layup ( BPDL6 )
P75 = 128.00 – CP bring ball up try to waste the shot clock. Then run PNR with blake. Blake screen and roll but got stop by parker who rotate on the lane. CP pass anyway. Blake get ball fake pass so parker run to crawford and he hit a long midrange on Duncan who close up MISSED but barnes get rebound TIMEOUT ( DTOs40-41-42 ADAs8 EDTOs18 P’creation9 RPDL10 ) ( CLIPPER BALL )
P76 = 130.00 – CP top keys PNR with blake then drive. CP then pull up on DUNCAN FOR A FOUL ( FD2 FTA3-4 FTM3-4 )
P77 = 134.42 – Blake hand off the ball to CP. CP at the logo get pick by green. Then he drive on green :green stumble back; so Duncan come contest but CP layup anyway FOR THE WINNNNN ( FGA13 FGM9 R2 OCT9 )

RESUME CHRIS PAUL GAME 7 AGAINST THE SPURS 2015
Total possession when CP was in the game = 77
Total possession that CP have action in both on/off ball = 65
Total Possession of play CP didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect = 12
Playmaking
-DTOs - 42
-EDTOs - 18
-Double - 5
-ADAs - 8
-Triple - 0
-Création - 13
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) - 4
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -9
-SC ( Screen ) - 2
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 6
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 10
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) - 6
Scoring
-FGA - 13
-FGM - 9
-M ( midrange ) -5 ( 3/5 )
-P ( Post play ) – 0
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 2 ( 1/2 )
-T ( 3pt ) – 6 ( 5/6 )
-PB ( Putback ) – 0
-FTA - 4
+ FTM – 4
-OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 9
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 4
- FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 2

His scoring is great, sub-ATG playmaking (in game with injury), and good gravity. So he's a lock for top 3, and takes my 2nd spot.

3. Steph: Steph becomes Steph this season, leading Warriors to 67 wins. The Warriors were still a good team with Steph (+3.3 NRTG), but his ceiling raising lifted this team to insanely high heights. Warriors are led to 2nd best offense in league by Curry's offensive ability. But another thing holding him back from the top spot is the defensive personnel was terrible, and average defense faced:
Jrue Holiday was injured. Mike Conley broke his face halfway thru the series. Tony Allen got a hamstring injury in early minutes of first quarter. Pat Beverly left before the playoffs. And finally the Cavs were destroyed by injuries.

His defense faced is -1.0, led a +2.7 rORTG adjusted. And we all know about his defense, pretty average (slight positive at best).
4. Harden: He doesn't become an ATG top ten offensive force ever in this season (only later seasons), but in a weak year from the 10s, he takes the 4th spot (clearly behind Steph), with lifting Rockets to a +1.4 rORtg. Defensively, a definite negative on that end. Offensively, Rockets were mid without him. He translates in the PO, but loses to GSW.

5. AD: I can see case for Kawhi, but for me he doesn't emerge until 2017 here. AD is a great scorer for a big. He's also a very versatile defender. He lost to GSW in the first round, but still translated (cooked Draymond in single coverage).



OPOY:
1. Steph - ATG ceiling raising offensively, this is when he becomes Steph. Also GOAT lvl gravity and off-ball game, but CP3 has argument since his on-ball is mid.
2. CP3 - ATG floor raising offensive season, the tracking encapsulate CP3's offensive game.
3. Bron - Incredible PO, ATG floor-raising when Kyrie and Love out. Also good RS offensively

DPOY:
1. Draymond - Actually did much better on Bron than Iggy (no reason for him to win FMVP), and I attribute most of the strong defense to Draymond here.
2. AD - Bad defense, but bad support on defense. AD as big as still great perimeter and interior defender.
3. Kawhi - Best perimeter and on ball defender this season.

EDIT: I have CP3 below Steph now

[lessthanjake]

Anywho, since you were too lazy to attempt to produce anything supporting your playmaking claim, I'll move on to LessthanJake's..

[
FWIW, I previously did analysis of the average percent increase in teammates’ shot quality that occurred when players were on the court. See here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107624238#p107624238. As we might expect, LeBron in this era comes out looking great. But Steph in this era is off the charts, far above everyone else. A big reason for this is that Steph is an outlier in terms of his impact on the percent of shots his teammates get at the rim: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107628798#p107628798. As mentioned above, no shot quality measure is perfect, so this can be looked at with a grain of salt, but it certainly indicates a significant “creation” advantage for Steph overall.

You did. The issue is that analysis left out whether shots were contested and uncontested.

When the openess of shots was factored in...it was advantage Lebron

No, that’s not actually right.

You pointed to another shot quality model that simply included a binary assessment of whether catch-and-shoot shots in particular were “guarded” or “unguarded.” So it simply had a binary variable that only applied to a small subset of shots. And the model I pointed to has an explanation in which they explained that for some years they have defender-distance data and they found that defender-distance only had a meaningful effect on the model’s accuracy for shots near the basket, which were not even shots that were included in any defender-distance data (or rather, binary “guarded” or “unguarded” data) in the model you pointed to. In other words, the additional factor included in the model you used would pretty clearly be of minimal value in the model I used. Meanwhile, the shot-quality measure I used included a whole host of other important information that was not present in the other model. If anything, we should probably glean from this an inference that the model I used for my analysis was better.

The model I looked at was also more complete in terms of data. The model you relied on did not go back further than 2016—a pretty obvious issue when it comes to this thread, of course. It also only looked at player rankings in two-year spans, with no numerical values. So we know who was ahead of who in different two-year spans, but not how far ahead they were in those spans, let alone who would be ahead over a longer time horizon. The analysis I did also included data from the playoffs too. So one analysis was just player rankings over a series of relatively small regular season samples, while another provided fulsome numerical data over larger samples and included both regular season and playoffs. Obviously the latter is better.

Meanwhile, because the model you pointed to did not go back further than 2016, it did not include two of Steph’s very best years in this regard (including the actual year that this thread is about—which I recall graded out particularly well in the model I used). Meanwhile, it included the years that were by far LeBron’s best years in this regard (as shown in my analysis using the other model, with LeBron’s earlier years being much lower). Even despite that, Steph was ahead of LeBron in 3 of the 6 timeframes the model used (and, as noted, the model only assigned rankings, not numerical values, so that’s all we know). So it was actually *not* advantage LeBron. It was a tie when it focused on LeBron’s best years in this regard and didn’t include two of Steph’s best years in the data—which is otherwise known as very likely advantage Steph. And again, that’s in a model that is probably inferior and uses a much less fulsome and complete approach to the data.

You’ve had all this explained to you before (see here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107851227#p107851227). I’ll put in a spoiler below my prior explanation in this regard. You didn’t respond to that back then, but now just keep saying the same thing that’s been dismantled. Classic.

Spoiler:

That’s not really what happened. The measure of shot quality that “accounted for contested or uncontested looks” only did so in a binary way (i.e. “guarded” or “unguarded”) for a small subset of FGAs for which we know that adding even better non-binary information about exact defender distance wouldn’t add much in terms of accuracy to the other model. So it’s objectively of minimal consequence. Meanwhile, that other model that doesn’t include that information includes a bunch of more detailed info about other things that the other measure doesn’t. It’s by no means clear which measure is superior.

A few additional notes about the shot quality measure/analysis you refer to:

- While Steph still looked great, it didn’t include one of Steph’s very best years in this regard and another really good year, because it only started at 2016. So there’s good reason to think Steph would’ve also been 1st in probably two prior two-year timeframes too, but they just weren’t included in the analysis.

- Related to the above, what I looked at was over longer time horizons and went further back than 2016, which makes it a fuller analysis. This other measure looks at snippets of time only starting at 2016, and that matters a lot here. For instance, this is comparing Steph to easily LeBron’s *best* time period in terms of improving shot quality—his first Cavs stint was a good bit lower, and in the Heat stint he barely had any effect on shot quality at all. So it’s showing LeBron’s best period and, as mentioned above, cutting off a couple of Steph’s best years (and, despite that, they still look essentially equal—each above the other in 3 out of 6 timeframes—which strongly suggests Steph’s superior in this regard overall). More generally, when we take the less full timeframe into account, this other measure actually isn’t particularly inconsistent with the output of the analysis I did—it just is looking at snippets within a less full timeframe. Which makes it a bit of a fool’s errand to attempt to draw some conclusion that a difference between the results was caused by a difference in what information one measure included. A huge reason the results are different is just that my analysis looked at a different (and more complete) timeframe!

- Adding to the “more complete timeframe thing,” the measure I looked at included playoffs shot quality too, which I imagine could potentially have had a significant effect in certain cases.

And in five-year RAPM for the last five years of his career, Mozgov’s DRAPM was ranked 40th according to NBArapm and 35th according to TheBaskeballDatabase. In that same time period, LeBron’s DRAPM was ranked 145th according to NBArapm and 477th according to TheBasketballDatabase. Granted, if we took the 2013-17 timeframe for LeBron instead, to avoid his awful defensive 2018, then he’s ranked 29th in DRAPM according to NBArapm and 71st in DRAPM according to TheBasketballDatabase. Given this data, it’s not surprising for Mozgov to have outperformed LeBron in defensive impact in 2014-15 specifically.

Minutes. Played. Going by those numbers, it's advantage Lebron for 13-17...(by a big margin). Unless there is a big per-possession gap for the one-year rapm you're citing for 2015, the same holds true. And of course that's no reason to ignore the wowy or raw lineup splits available for both Mozgov and Lebron from this year.

First of all, the inference you’re trying to draw about total impact definitely isn’t right if we compare Mozgov’s last five years in the NBA with LeBron in the same years. That gives us Mozgov having a +1.07 DRAPM over those five years, while LeBron has a -0.02 DRAPM in those same years (according to TheBasketballDatabase). Obviously no amount of minutes difference can rehabilitate LeBron there. Similarly, if we look at NBArapm and look specifically at the years LeBron was on the Cavs (we can’t do this exactly with TheBasketballDatabase since it doesn’t have four-year RAPM), we see LeBron with +0.5 DRAPM and Mozgov with a +2.0 DRAPM in the same timeframe. Higher MPG doesn’t get LeBron anywhere near Mozgov. Knowing this, you glom onto my very charitable mention of using 2013-17 for LeBron instead. In that case, LeBron is at +0.77 in TheBasketballDatabase’s RAPM, which is below Mozgov but enough to look higher if we accounted for his higher MPG (though I note that the MPG difference is smaller in 2015 specifically than it was in the longer spans). So yeah, if you cherry-pick out LeBron’s worst defensive year with the Cavs and then try to adjust for MPG, you can get LeBron still looking notably worse than Mozgov on a per-possession basis but a little bit better when adjusting for MPG. But if you don’t cherry-pick, he’s nowhere close.

And I’ll also note that your claim about 2014-15 specifically doesn’t hold true at all when it comes to the playoffs. There, TheBasketballDatabase has Mozgov with +3.38 DRAPM and LeBron with a +0.73 DRAPM. In that regular season, Mozgov has a better DRAPM but one could do a MPG adjustment to get LeBron ahead. But the thing is that the discussion is specifically centered around the Cavaliers’ defense in the playoffs, which was much better than it was in the regular season. Single-year playoff RAPM is really noisy, but when the discussion is specifically about defense in those playoffs, it’s certainly relevant that Mozgov’s DRAPM is much better than LeBron’s, to a degree that a MPG adjustment cannot even get close to overcoming. And while single-playoff RAPM is noisy, the fact that Mozgov also looks better than LeBron even with a MPG adjustment if we look at LeBron’s second stint with the Cavs and Mozgov over those same years backs up the idea that he was more defensively impactful over larger samples too. Of course, that’s all leaving aside that Mozgov doesn’t even need to be better defensively over larger samples to have been better defensively in those playoffs specifically. Player form fluctuates significantly, and Mozgov was the superior defender in those playoffs.

[Elpolo_14]

Curry scored 1.8 points/game less than Lebron in the playoffs but on 11.7% better raw efficiency and 11.1% better relative efficiency. I don't think that can be understated. We know Curry's gravity also wreaked havoc off the ball so even Lebron having an apparent playmaking edge from assists isn't really proof that he was a better playmaker overall. I just think offensively, there is a large gap between them in favour of Curry in both the RS and PS in 2015.

Because Lebron James famously lacks gravity, and has no track-record of his impact and creation far outpacing his assist numbers:


Especially when he's playing without a legitimate second option.

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

There was a big drop in TS. There was also, however, a massive spike in scoring volume and creation (at least according to the box-score you love taking at face value), as well as a massive defensive jump by the metric you decided to highlight. Considering it was the cavs that improved more in the playoffs despite the second best player missing nearly half the postseason and the third best player missing nearly all of it (and the 5th best player missing 2 games himself), I'd say the results strongly suggest the effiency drop was far outweighed by everything else.

Lebron has plenty of rim gravity but that's on ball. He drives to the basket, attracts the defenders and then dishes it out. It's reflected in his assists.

Curry's gravity is mostly off ball with defenses freaked out about his shooting. He pulls defenders which gives his teammates open shots. That type of playmaking is NOT reflected in the assist totals.

He didn't have a 2nd option through parts of ECF and Finals. He had Kyrie in the first two rounds and still shot horribly.

The data shows Lebron was subpar on D in the RS (even your pal Elpolo said that) and then solid in the PS but far less impactful than Mozgov even though the latter played far fewer minutes than Lebron, he contested way more shots at the rim and with better efficacy.

Again, a big drop in TS is understating it. Curry scored on over 11% higher efficiency in the postseason... 11 PERCENT!

I just wanna talk about the thing said about me
Firstly I know I wrote "Bad" on defense but I wanted to say worse than before so I go edit it after writing post 2-3 hours later ( I'm sorry that it made some trouble/ Misconception )

Even when Lebron defense actually regress in the RS in my opinion and in Many way to measure it. I do think he still a good benefits on that end and have good impact when on the floor

By defense rating I used for DPOY list lebron RS is 104.5 rDRTG ( +3.7 better than off ) / 53.1 D-TS% ( +0.7 better than off ) / 14.9 D-TS% ( +1.1 better than off ). Lebron have almost the same defensive uplifting as Kawhi ( who I think is a great defender)
.
Lebron when he's with Mozgov on the floor in RS is 100.9 rDRTG ( +8.1 better than both off ) / 50.5 D-TS% ( +3.4 better than both off )/ 13.8 D-TOV ( -0.2 worse than both off )
.
Lebron when he on the floor without Mozgov in RS 106.3rDRTG ( +2.7 better than off )/ 54.3 D-TS% ( -0.4 worse than off ) / 15.5 D-TOV% ( +1.9 better than off )
.
Mozgov when he on the floor without lebron in RS 106.2rDRTG ( +2.6 better than off )/ 53.4 D-TS%( +0.5 better than off )/ 14.3 D-TOV% ( +0.6 better than off )

Like I see when both of them are in the floor by themselves they still have good impact on defense but when they're together the impact get Significantly better. Mozgov is a great additional help to the Cavs on Defense cause he would be the best shot blocker/ Interior presence in the team mix with Lebron switchability and help defense. They were great defensive impact duo together.

[Elpolo_14]

Looking at the last iteration of the project, a lot of people were pretty low on Lebron this season. He had a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes. His impact numbers don't look super strong in the playoffs but I think I can't put a guy like Harden over him. In the 69 games he played, the Cavs had a +6 rORtg and his impact stats are good so his problem is the missed games not poor play. In the PS his jumper was broken which hurt the offense and thus the overall impact but I still think he's probably pretty securely #2. Kawhi isn't in his prime yet, I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O (while being a negative on D) and Westbrook is in the same boat as Harden and missed the PS.

As for DPOY, Draymond #1 is an easy choice. Kawhi #2 probably. Mozgov flies under the radar and could make my ballot. I posted his and the other Cavs' rim protection numbers in one of the old threads (and just dug it up!) and he looks like a DPOY candidate especially in the PS. Just elite stuff from the big Russian but then the next season he suddenly stops getting minutes, starts getting hurt and never makes much noise in the NBA. Funny how it goes sometimes.

2015 Cavaliers - Regular Season
Lebron James: 63.8 dFG% (97/152) +5.1%
Tristan Thompson: 56.6 dFG% (218/385) -2.3%
Timofey Mozgov: 52.6 dFG% (257/489) -6.4%
Kevin Love: 56.0 dFG% (232/414) -2.8%

Lebron actually struggled defending the rim in the RS. Mozgov looks like the best defender on the team by some distance.

2015 Cavaliers - Playoffs
Lebron James: 52.8 dFG% (38/72) -6.9%
Tristan Thompson: 56.2 dFG% (68/121) -2.4%
Timofey Mozgov: 42.9 dFG% (42/98) -16.5%
Kevin Love: 61.9 dFG% (13/21) +3.7%

Love got injured in the first round. In the playoffs Lebron looks a whole lot better but Mozgov is again the Cavs' most impactful defender.

Well, Harden was much better than LeBron against GS in the playoffs IMO.

More effective anyway.

The regarde of who you actually have as better performer against GSW is not my interpretation to say otherwise ( you can choose one or the other ). But saying "MUCH BETTER" seem to be a big overstatement. Harden was Sure a better scorer with his efficiency but lebron was a better Playmaker with his drive/on ball gravity that make the defensive attention always on him and able to pull the defense towards him on a much higher rate than Harden. Also lebron defensive ability + value he bought is much better than harden defense ( especially this year when he was a negative on defense IMO )

[Verticality]

I am told I can vote. Sorry If this incorrect.

1st must go to James or Curry. James Finals was incredible but I was not sure about the season. However I think great reasoning has been put for what he did before being strong. Steph was a deserving most valuable player but Lebron was great too and what Cavs did without Kyrie Irving or Love was phenomenal. Steph is the NBA Most Valuable Player and champion on team with 67 wins. CP3 elite passing and was fantastic vs Spurs. Harden is an offensive force and Kawhi a two way monster. Harden makes it the conference championship so I take him by hair.

1 Lebron James
2 Stephen Curry
3 Chris Paul
4 James Harden
5 Kawhi Harden

If acceptable I skip the Offensive and DPOY vote.

[Elpolo_14]

I am told I can vote. Sorry If this incorrect.

1st must go to James or Curry. James Finals was incredible but I was not sure about the season. However I think great reasoning has been put for what he did before being strong. Steph was a deserving most valuable player but Lebron was great too and what Cavs did without Kyrie Irving or Love was phenomenal. Steph is the NBA Most Valuable Player and champion on team with 67 wins. CP3 elite passing and was fantastic vs Spurs. Harden is an offensive force and Kawhi a two way monster. Harden makes it the conference championship so I take him by hair.

1 Lebron James
2 Stephen Curry
3 Chris Paul
4 James Harden
5 Kawhi Harden

If acceptable I skip the Offensive and DPOY vote.

Hi I'm not disagree or anything. I just want to know what make you put Kawhi in the top 5 for this year ahead of guys like AD or Westbrook who were impact beast. If you have time can you just give some reasoning or criteria ( I'm asking this because I don't see many people put Kawhi as top 5 this year so it might be great to have another point of view/ interpretation )

Great list tho

[homecourtloss]

good season for a top two. The Cavaliers and LeBron after his injury on the trade, had his most dominant stretch in any season and even more dominant than the Warriors before the injuries derailed them in the playoffs. We are talking, massive beat downs, game after game, hardly ever trailing a home, and so on.

Spoiler:

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

—LeBron, after the trades was +15.5 on court +18.3 on-off.
—LeBron/Love/Kyrie were +18.0 on court in 32 games in the regular season.
—LeBron/TT/Shumpert were +21.9 (look at all that spacing!)
—LeBron/Shump/Delly were +23.7
—LeBron/Love/TT were +26.
—The Cavs at home rarely even trailed in any games after those trades, usually the mark of a dominant team. James was +21.3 on court, and James/Love/Kyrie were +24.1 on court (113.7 ORtg, 89.7 DRtg) and undefeated, 17-0, sans the final game, which they won, but sat out all their top players. The 2017 Warriors, for example, were 24-4 with KD/Curry/Dray, +25 on court. [/quote]

overall, I would have to say that curry had the better regular season but when you look at what happens in the playoffs and this is with LeBron with a bad back, who is not as efficient as he is and just about every other playoffs still is able to sweep a 60 win Hawks team with only 49 minutes from Kyrie, no minutes from Kevin love and then take the two games to one lead against the Warriors while not trailing at the end of any quarter through three games in regulation.

1. Lebron
2. Curry
3. CP3
4. Harden
5. Kawhi

[EmpireFalls]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

[Djoker]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

Yea... The last project in 2015 fresh after the playoffs had Lebron with nine 2nd place votes, five 3rd place votes and four 4th place votes.

In this thread, we have Lebron with five 1st place votes so far and no one else with any.

That said, Curry will have at least one 1st place vote this time but it's not looking good for him.

[Texas Chuck]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

Yea... The last project in 2015 fresh after the playoffs had Lebron with nine 2nd place votes, five 3rd place votes and four 4th place votes.

In this thread, we have Lebron with five 1st place votes so far and no one else with any.

That said, Curry will have at least one 1st place vote this time but it's not looking good for him.

I read back through some of that original thread and I was participating quite a bit. Didn't read enough to see if I actually voted or for who, but my posts appear largely to be pro-Lebron or at least pushing back against some pretty crazy pro-Curry/anti-Lebron arguments. Got to say 10 years later I still feel really good about my points itt lol.

Not voting here obviously.

[lessthanjake]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

I think it would be a shocker if we were talking about a vote from a broad swath of basketball fans. But it’s a very specific subset of people—with OhayoKD being on discords specifically asking like-minded people to get on RealGM and vote on these things (I am actually on one of those discords so I’ve seen this happen, and amusingly enough, OhayoKD does not know it’s me and is quite cordial to me there, and actually is complementary about my basketball knowledge haha). I don’t think it’s a bad thing for the forums—particularly if the people who show up here actually stay as contributors to the forum, rather than just drive-by posters for voting purposes (after all, having new contributors is a good thing!)—but it is certainly very relevant context when talking specifically about the results of votes like this. (Granted, I will note that the above doesn’t apply to everyone who has voted LeBron on this thread—LABird being an example otherwise).

[falcolombardi]

First, i didnt know you guys were continuing rpoy, that is pretty cool

Second, this is probably one og those years without a satysfing enough top 1 pick

Curry was somewhat underwhelming in the playoffs despite mvp and winning the ring, lebron was probably the best playoffs player but it was still a down year for him

[parsnips33]

Is 14-15 considered a disappointing playoffs for Steph? You hear 16 a lot because of games missed etc

Is it really just that the defense was better than the offense?

[jalengreen]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

Yea... The last project in 2015 fresh after the playoffs had Lebron with nine 2nd place votes, five 3rd place votes and four 4th place votes.

In this thread, we have Lebron with five 1st place votes so far and no one else with any.

That said, Curry will have at least one 1st place vote this time but it's not looking good for him.

Damn four 4th place votes feels crazy (I say as somebody who would vote Curry 1 if I were voting). Maybe I need to read that thread

[One_and_Done]

1. Lebron

2. Curry
3. CP3
4. Kawhi
5. Harden

In hindsight, it seems obvious that Lebron was the best player in the league from 2011-20, excluding 19 when he was injured, and that various other MVPs were based on narratives, voter fatigure, etc. I think now people can look back at the terrible team Lebron had in 2015, where his 2nd best player in the finals was Mozgov, and understand that he was totally outgunned. A lot of people understood that at the time too, but the Curry hype clouded things a little. With a larger resume, we can see Curry’s limitations more clearly. Even though Lebron missed some games this year, as did Kawhi, they didn’t miss enough for me to penalise them. They were just better than other, healthier guys. Lebron’s impact on both sides of the ball was easily the most valuable in the NBA these years.

I’ll put Curry over CP3, as I think he was generally the more impactful player, and while Kawhi wasn’t quite ready yet, though I’d still take him over Harden, and of course KD was injured so he falls off my list too. Everyone mostly gets how overrated Westbrook was by this point, even if he was still a very good player back then, so he falls off my list too. I seriously considered Gasol, but he just doesn’t have the same impact as the guys above. He was part of an ensemble cast, rather than carrying a bad team. AD got serious consideration from me also.

[AEnigma]

Is 14-15 considered a disappointing playoffs for Steph? You hear 16 a lot because of games missed etc

Is it really just that the defense was better than the offense?

Not disappointing, but when only 2-3 of the 11 Finals MVP voters comes away thinking the title-winning regular season MVP deserves to win Finals MVP, and when the vast majority of the people outside the Bay Area both at the time and years later feels he was only the second best player in the series, it ends up being something of a blemish.

That said, that same focus on the postseason over the regular season means odds are high this bloc would have supported, and perhaps eventually will support, 2022 Curry as Player of the Year despite a similarly underwhelming (save for those who argue he became an all-defensive calibre guard that year ) regular season.

[AEnigma]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

Yea... The last project in 2015 fresh after the playoffs had Lebron with nine 2nd place votes, five 3rd place votes and four 4th place votes.

In this thread, we have Lebron with five 1st place votes so far and no one else with any.

That said, Curry will have at least one 1st place vote this time but it's not looking good for him.

Damn four 4th place votes feels crazy (I say as somebody who would vote Curry 1 if I were voting). Maybe I need to read that thread

Well it is a 50-page thread lol, but the general sentiment at the time was that Lebron had declined, with those who voted him outside of the top three convinced that those voting otherwise were reactively responding to the 2-1 Finals lead rather than the comparatively down rest of the season (and those voting him outside the top two being more enamoured with Harden).

Benefit of hindsight, much clearer that Lebron was still Lebron but was increasingly indifferent to the regular season (before that indifference had become common) and had a specifically rough scoring year related to his back, and also that Harden was probably not a guy whom you would really want over him.

[parsnips33]

Is 14-15 considered a disappointing playoffs for Steph? You hear 16 a lot because of games missed etc

Is it really just that the defense was better than the offense?

Not disappointing, but when only 2-3 of the 11 Finals MVP voters comes away thinking the title-winning regular season MVP deserves to win Finals MVP, and when the vast majority of the people outside the Bay Area both at the time and years later feels he was only the second best player in the series, it ends up being something of a blemish.

That said, that same focus on the postseason over the regular season means odds are high this bloc would have supported, and perhaps eventually will support, 2022 Curry as Player of the Year despite a similarly underwhelming (save for those who argue he became an all-defensive calibre guard that year ) regular season.

The combination of the Delly Game, Bron going Wilt mode, and the starting lineup change were really decisive

Even though I was adamantly against it at the time, would have been kinda cool for LeBron to take FMVP

[AEnigma]

Is 14-15 considered a disappointing playoffs for Steph? You hear 16 a lot because of games missed etc

Is it really just that the defense was better than the offense?

Not disappointing, but when only 2-3 of the 11 Finals MVP voters comes away thinking the title-winning regular season MVP deserves to win Finals MVP, and when the vast majority of the people outside the Bay Area both at the time and years later feels he was only the second best player in the series, it ends up being something of a blemish.

That said, that same focus on the postseason over the regular season means odds are high this bloc would have supported, and perhaps eventually will support, 2022 Curry as Player of the Year despite a similarly underwhelming (save for those who argue he became an all-defensive calibre guard that year ) regular season.

The combination of the Delly Game, Bron going Wilt mode, and the starting lineup change were really decisive

Even though I was adamantly against it at the time, would have been kinda cool for LeBron to take FMVP

Narratively, I feel like it also makes 2022 much sweeter (while having the additional benefit of immortalising an otherwise unheralded franchise legend). Who knows, maybe the motivation to get Steph his Finals MVP was the final piece the team needed to come together for that run.

[Djoker]

Not a voter on this, but this seems like a shocker to see LBJ winning.. I would’ve thought this was the lock of locks for Curry.

I think it would be a shocker if we were talking about a vote from a broad swath of basketball fans. But it’s a very specific subset of people—with OhayoKD being on discords specifically asking like-minded people to get on RealGM and vote on these things (I am actually on one of those discords so I’ve seen this happen, and amusingly enough, OhayoKD does not know it’s me and is quite cordial to me there, and actually is complementary about my basketball knowledge haha). I don’t think it’s a bad thing for the forums—particularly if the people who show up here actually stay as contributors to the forum, rather than just drive-by posters for voting purposes (after all, having new contributors is a good thing!)—but it is certainly very relevant context when talking specifically about the results of votes like this. (Granted, I will note that the above doesn’t apply to everyone who has voted LeBron on this thread—LABird being an example otherwise).

Speaking of regular contributors vs. drive-by posters (love that phrase ), if you actually look at people who OhayoKD brought on this forum who have voted in this Retro project, none of them have stayed as contributors. I don't see any of these guys regularly posting on the forums.

Kola
Paullux
konr0167
Lebronnygoat