RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 — 2003 Tim Duncan

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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#41 » by capfan33 » Sat Jul 26, 2025 2:41 am

1. Duncan 2003 (2002)
One of the most impressive carry jobs ever even though the Nets were a terrible team by finals standards. Hakeem-esque carrying a very limited squad on his back, I ultimately like Duncan's two-way play more than someone like Jokic or Shaq and moreover contextually think what Duncan did this season is far more impressive than anything Jokic has done. Think KG deserves serious consideration as well but ultimately going with the more conventional pick.

2. Shaq 2001 (2000)
This is the point where it starts to get a lot hazier for me. Seriously considered KG, Magic and Jokic here. Ultimately, I'm going with what is likely the most conventional pick as I do think Shaq would in some ways be even more unstoppable today and was also definitely a good enough passer to punish defenses for doubling. I have serious questions about his defense, but not to the point where I would pick Jokic over him.

3. KG 2004
Really not sure about this pick, but despite my reservations about KG as a scorer, I think he's simply too good overall to not pick at this point. Just an insane talent, and the big thing is I think he's the quintessential modern player with his mobility and length. He legit could play 1-5 on both ends and in today's game next to any decent perimeter scorer, he'd be a monster. I think in a sense, his size and skillset relative to the league is better able to be utilized now than it was back in the early 2000s because it's very unlikely he'd be stuck on a team as terrible as the Wolves with such a dearth of perimeter talent for as long as he was.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#42 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:33 am

Joao Saraiva wrote:
SHAQ32 wrote:Hakeem #4, wow!


For me it's too low. I have him #1 :lol:

Reading on Duncan tough I'm maybe being unfair to the guy tough, maybe I'm not giving him enough value for his defense.


You aren't. You called 2000 Shaq a good rim-protector. Here's how his "good" "rim protection" stacks up against Duncan's from his allegedly "elite defense" season:
Spoiler:
74 Kareem
Per-possession that is
.32 PPs
.11 EPPs
.16 IPPs
.05 PPDs
.00 EPPDs
.05 IPPDs

2000 Shaq
.16 PP
.06 EPP
.06 IPP
.0875 PPDs
.0125 EPPDs
.075 IPPDs


Shaq does look somewhat more effective inside. However, the caveat here is that Kareem literally doubles Shaq in your proxy for Paint-usage (.32 to .16). Just off this I'm taking Kareem by a significant margin as a paint-defender. One that I do not think is made up for a marginal perimiter usage gap with similarly ineffective possessions.

And of course with Duncan, there really is no comparison (at least so far):
During Duncan’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 28 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 11 and ineffective in 2. He was also given 6 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally, Duncan was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Duncan averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.275 EPPs, 0.05 IPPs, 0.15 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.


Duncan not only doubles Kareem in PPs (paint-usage proxy), who in turn doubles Shaq, but he is doing so while having almost no ineffective primary possessions (and a much higher volume of effective ones). He's doubles Shaq in PPDs (perimeter usage proxy) and actually has a positive effective: ineffective ratio.

So even if you want to ignore Duncan's marked RAPM advantage (despite playing way more minutes than his teammates, his best teammate at peak being a similar player), the tracked film thus far suggests a colossal defensive gap. And that lines up with actual playoff results where the Laker's rim-protection collapsed leading the Lakers into becoming a negative defense.[/quote]


Duncan protects the paint vastly more and is simultaneously way more effective at it. He also was used as a perimeter defender alot more, and again, was way more effective. Accordingly, while the 03 spurs improved overall in the playoffs. The 2000 Lakers collapsed, primarily because their defense turned negative with Shaq as a primary culprit.

Pair that with his ability to score better than Shaq in 3 of their 5 matchups (2 being peak-adjacent), and him whacking Shaq in RAPM despite playing with a co-star with way more overlap (who played way less minutes), I don't think there's a real case for Shaq here, "dominance" not withstanding. (Especially if you're going to put Hakeem Olajuwon at #1)
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#43 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:36 am

One_and_Done wrote:
trelos6 wrote:KG vs Duncan

Stats are O, D, Total.

2003

xRAPM
TD: +3.8, -4.2, +8.0
KG: +4.4, -3.2, +7.6

PIPM
KG: +4.91, +3.03, +7.94
TD: +3.83, +3.28, +7.11

AuPM 2.0
KG: +8.4
TD: +6.9

PS PIPM
KG: +0.3
TD: +6.62

PIRAPM
TD: +4.01, +5.11, +9.11
KG: +4.5, +3.5, +8.0


2004

xRAPM
KG: +4.9, -4.0, +8.9
TD: +2.9, -4.4, +7.3

PIPM
KG: +4.72, +3.35, +8.06
TD: +1.49, +4.54, +6.03

AuPM 2.0
TD: +6.2
KG: +8.5

PS PIPM
KG: +2.42
TD: +1.11

PIRAPM
KG: +5.5, +4.51, +10.01
TD: +2.67, +4.97, +7.64

Advanced stats are an interesting data point, but we all know they can be wrong or misleading for a host of reasons. I'm never going to look at 2 guys and say 'well, X had a slightly higher WoWser score, so he was better'.

Don't take this the wrong way, because I have KG in my top 10, but I feel like a more persuasive argument for KG would be looking at his actual skillset and a contextual analysis of his career impact, rather than some graphs and numbers. I'm sure those will appeal to some, but the argument really has to be more than spreadsheets.

I also feel like when the take is Duncan vs KG, you're just starting from a weak position. These 2 had mostly overlapping primes (98-07 for TD, 00 to 09 for KG), and during their careers there was broad agreement about who was better. I'm not saying that consensus can't be overthrown, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. These numbers, that can often be wrong, aren't sufficient.

The most obvious way to measure impact is the hardest to observe, because what you want is a controlled experiment where you have the team for a year without the player, the team with the player for a few seasons, then the player leaves, and during this period nobody gets better or worse. That exact situation never happens, but there are many times something close to it does (e.g. the Cavs in 09 and 10 with Lebron, then without him in 2011 before they stopped trying to win).

In the case of Duncan, I've seen peak Duncan with absolute rubbish support (01 to 03). Yet those teams won 58-60 games, and a title. The worst team Duncan had to carry was probably in 02. That squad was rubbish, and let's us conduct a useful experiment because in 02 KG was also at his peak or close to it and had a better support cast than Duncan did. Yet the results weren't the same. The Spurs were simply better than the Wolves.

KG had a big floor raise, but it wasn't a Duncan like raise. I find the idea of prime Duncan missing the playoffs 3 years in a row kind of ludicrous as well, even with a rubbish support cast. There are just better names than KG at this point.


I mean you can type all this, or you can simply point out that RAPM has Duncan > Shaq and Steph despite Tlreos voting both ahead of Duncan (and the stat being biased towards shaq and steph)
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#44 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:45 am

I’m just putting out some interesting comparisons between 2 candidates who have all time great level seasons.

KG looks better, along with his playmaking, horizontal defence etc. but that 2003 Duncan PS was pretty special.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#45 » by OhayoKD » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:53 am

Also may as well vote.

Vote

Will add more later but

64 Bill Russell

-> Leads massive rs outlier with no evidence of impressive help playing way more minutes than everyone
-> RS outlier is dominant in the postseason
-> potential peak of a player who effectively lead two different dynasties with two completely different supporting casts and won back to back against historically strong competition as a player-coach on a roster that seems to have been incapable of making the playoffs without.


I am keeping things mostly era-relative this time around so Russell is a simple 1 to argue for. A full Russell vs Jordan case is made in page 2.

77 Walton

Can't really form a solid positive 1-year case for Hakeem over Walton. Will keep Hakeem because he is actually getting more than 1 other vote but Lebronny's argument really isn't one I can seriously counter beyond pointing out a lack of replication for someone who never had any opportunity to.

The aforementioned argument by the way:
Spoiler:
Lebronny wrote:Walton- 77. ATG D. Good PM. Skillset not great but I’m taking over any Jordan.

https://discord.com/channels/807803459331555359/807803459331555363/1334671910348390475

Playmaking, rebounding, scoring one play

https://discord.com/channels/807803459331555359/807803459331555363/1334672464147517591

Many times Walton draws a triple or double to contest their shot, but it technically leads a 4 on 3 advantage to get the rebound and put it back easily. And is this a form of playmaking.

-3.4 without
+7.9 with

76 Portland also was a -3.3 team which is consistent without him79 blazers only won 45 games +1.1 team
Ron Brewer was added, Thompson was added and Owen’s took a huge step up from 10 pts to 18 pts
Looking at the 77 Blazers SRS compared to their top 5 and top 10 teams in their league along with the 91 Bulls. And it looks identical for 5 best teams, and similar for 10 best teams

But now with Walton’s 65 games, if we do SRS when Walton played vs the top 5 and top 10 teams in the league, Walton’s team will have a better SRS than even the 91 Bulls

77 they added talent. In 90s expansion dilutes.


Bulls have better PSRS but let’s be for real, it’s easy to build a strong SRS vs weak teams, Walton faced an above average team every series or even a team better than his, whereas Jordan had the huge gap of a team and played 2 below average teams in a row (Knicks and Sixers).


I think the Pistons in 1991 were just an above average team atp
Still a good team but they were not their RS selves
1991 Lakers ran off Magic and Divac.


So 77 Blazers with Walton better team than 91 Bulls.

Walton is definitely over MJ one year



03 Tim Duncan

Will just copy and paste what I wrote for him in the 2003 RPOY

Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:Voting Post

1. Tim Duncan

60-wins and a +5.6 SRS with Duncan averaging 6 more minutes than 2nd-in-minutes sophomore Tony Parker and 13 more minutes than #2 David Robinson. Duncan sees substantial time without #2s past and present with San Antonio going 15-3 without Robinson (68-win pace) and 10-3 without Manu (63-win pace, statmuse isn't showing net). From 01-07, the Spurs played at a 41-win pace without Duncan posting a net-rating of +0.4. A sample largely informed by 2004/2005 and a Spurs team with significantly improved iterations of Manu and Parker. With RAPM, Duncan, despite his best years coming with a #2 who plays his natural position, and an unusually large amount of minutes spent with said #2's poor backups, scores 2nd best behind KG of all players relevant to this ballot. In playoff-rapm he looks like the outright best.

With that we have a strong POY case, but what cements it is the postseason:
Sansterre wrote:Playoff Offensive Rating: +1.80 (83rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -8.65 (14th)
Playoff SRS: +10.66 (47th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.36 (34th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.75 (34th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.70 (59th)

Playoff Heliocentrism: 50.8% (6th of 84 teams) - Duncan
Playoff Wingmen: 29.5% (76th) - Ginobili & Robinson
Playoff Bench: 19.7% (54th)

Round 1: Phoenix Suns (+1.6), won 4-2, by +5.3 points a game (+6.9 SRS eq)
Round 2: Los Angeles Lakers (+4.8), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+10.6 SRS eq)
Round 3: Dallas Mavericks (+7.5), won 4-2, by +5.0 points a game (+12.5 SRS eq)
Round 4: New Jersey Nets (+6.9), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+12.7 SRS eq)

The spurs jump from the 76th highest SRS to the 46th PSRS going from +5.6 to +10 as Duncan goes from averaging 6 more minutes than anybody else to 8 more minutes and ups his points, assists, assist% rebounds, rebound %, blocks, and block percentage (.1 tov increase, .1 steal decrease, .1% steal percentage drop). He also sees across-the-board improvement in ben's advanced box, and, by a box-score interpretation that really doesn't capture what he offers as the primary focus of the opposing offense on >50% of his team's defensive possessions, the Spurs run more through him than all but 2 other bigs:
The problem was that all of his teammates were the wrong ages. David Robinson was 37, the future Hall of Famer going into his final year, protecting his body by playing only 25 minutes a game. In contrast Tony Parker was only 20 and Manu Ginobili was 25 (but he was a late bloomer, at this point mostly notable for being an insane ball-hawk on defense). Pretty much all of his great teammates were either too old or too young. I don’t want to sell that it was a bad supporting cast . . . It’s just that there was no way they were going to be winning anything without ‘03 Duncan. Do you know how many bigs on this list broke 45% Heliocentrism for the regular season? ‘80 Kareem, ‘74 Kareem and ‘01 Shaq (I’m choosing not to consider Bird and LeBron bigs for the purposes of this list). How about 50% Heliocentrism in the playoffs? ‘74 Kareem is it. As all-time seasons with a big man carrying a team to greatness go, ‘03 Duncan has got to be on the short list for that discussion.
.

For comparison the 2000 Lakers, led by a far more lauded pinnacle, post a psrs of +7, a substantially worse postseason performance even with 8 additional minutes of Kobe Bryant.

Duncan also does this with Popavich, not "standard-deviation above any coach ever statistically" Phil Jackson. And he does it forced out of his natural position with a co-star who shares massive overlap in terms of skllset. Points ignored when certain, let's say, "context" is provided to diminish him
Elgee wrote: I’d be remiss not to acknowledge Popovich more, who, for my money, is the greatest coach in NBA history. He transitioned the Spurs from a defensively-oriented team that orbited around its twin-towers, to a perpetual motion, Euro-style offense built around perimeter players who could pass and shoot. This morphed into a brief offensive dynasty, peaking in 2014 with one of the greatest teams of all-time, unheard of for an ensemble production that lacked a troupe of stars. Popovich’s success on both sides of the ball does take some of the shine off of Duncan for me.
...
Duncan’s portability isn’t top-notch either; he’s savvy enough to scale down his offense (as he did in later years), although his limited passing prevents him from matching Garnett’s impact in a secondary role. His longevity was fantastic, tallying 17 All-Star seasons by my valuations, tied for tops in this series. He, KG and Wilt all have similar peaks and era-adjusted career value, and thus feel nearly interchangeable in these slots. So, while Garnett and him are neck and neck, if I were forced to choose, I’d oh-so-barely side with Duncan. (Are ties allowed?)


Duncan is the most portable, scalable, proven, winningest, and, most importantly, valuable player in the league. Simply, put he's the best player of the early 2000s; peak, prime and career. Maybe the best since Jabbar, maybe even Russell (era-relative). He was not merely consistent, but consistently spectacular. And at his best, he got better in the biggest games, the ones titles are won or lost with.

For the true "most dominant", I think a unanimous vote would be appropriate.



Think the #4 thread where Shaq voters unironically tried to argue a series Duncan scoring way more and more efficiently and Shaq specifically did poorly when Duncan (not david robinson) was defending him more... as a point in Shaq's favor...speaks to how vibes-based his selection would be. I especially enjoyed when one used incomplete (and accordingly biased) RAPM to argue Shaq vs Hakeem while ignoring that actual RAPM has Duncan frying Shaq before expressing a preference for Hakeem over Duncan.

As this is the peaks project, not the "what did people feel during the 2000s" project, I hope there's actual justification for Shaq votes this time around.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#46 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 26, 2025 8:09 am

I've had Shaq at the top of my ballot, but honestly, the seasons are so close in value right now, I thought I'd do a deeper dive on 3 big men who I see as candidates in the coming rounds.

Shaq, Wilt, Jokic

Regular season scoring: pp75, rTS%

Code: Select all

'64 Wilt:    25.1    +5.2%
'67 Wilt:    15.6    +14.4%
'00 Shaq:    28.6    +5.5%
'23 Jokic:   26.7    +12%

I think you give the nod to Jokic there.

Playoffs scoring: pp75, rTS%

Code: Select all

'64 Wilt:     23      +5.8%
'67 Wilt:     14      +5.3%
'00 Shaq:     28.2    +3.3%
'23 Jokic:    29      +5%

Jokic still comes out on top.

I think Wilt and Shaq's overwhelming presence at the rim is somewhat countered by their total inept performances at the free throw line. Still gives them a positive value overall, but definitely diminishes the greatness. Overall in terms of scoring, Jokic > Shaq > Wilt, IMO.

Looking at playmaking, I think this one is easy. Jokic >> '67 Wilt > '64 Wilt > '00 Shaq. Though you could argue Wilt's scoring in '64 made up for his lack of passing chops, so it's a bit closer in terms of overall creation.

Defense, again it's easy, IMO. '67 Wilt > '64 Wilt > Shaq '00, Jokic '23.

That said, looking at 29 year xRAPM between Shaq and Jokic is interesting. Both are -2.1. Both bring different things to the defensive end, but clearly, less valuable than Wilt.


Looking a little closer at Jokic v Shaq playoff performances.

Jokic playoff opponent:

Round 1 v Timberwolves: -1.1 oRtg, -1 dRtg (PS: -3.8 oRtg, +5.4 dRtg)
Round 2 v Suns: +0.3 oRtg, -1.8 dRtg (PS: +3.5 oRtg, +4.9 dRtg)
Conference Finals v Lakers: -0.3 oRtg, -0.9 dRtg (PS: +0.2 oRtg, -2.2 dRtg)
NBA Finals v Heat: -1.8 oRtg, -1.5 dRtg (PS: +0.6 oRtg, -1 dRtg)

Jokic was dominant v all teams, though the best team they played were the Suns with a +2.08 SRS.

Shaq playoff opponent:

Round 1 v Kings: +0.9 rOrtg, -2 dRtg (PS: +0.8 oRtg, +9.5 dRtg)
Round 2 v Suns: +0.5 rOrtg, -5.1 dRtg (PS: -7.6 oRtg, -3.6 dRtg)
Conference Finals v Blazers: +3.8 rOrtg, -3.3 dRtg (PS: +3.5 rOrtg, -2 dRtg)
nBA Finals v Pacers: +4.4 rOrtg, -0.5 dRtg (PS: +5.5 rOrtg, +2.6 dRtg)

Shaq was dominant vs Kings and Suns, good vs Blazers (who were a very good team, +6.36 SRS), and dominant vs Pacers.

So overall, we're looking at 3 players who bring different strengths to the center position. Wilt was an elite defender, arguably the best in the non Bill Russell category. Shaq applied immense rim pressure and generated 13.4 FTA/100 possessions. Jokic provides elite efficiency, and insane playmaking from the center position. As for Duncan, I have him behind all 3 as a scorer and playmaker (despite being pretty good at both, we’re voting for the #5 peak), though defensively he’s on the Wilt level.

I think it comes down to what you value more, and I don't think there is a right answer, ask me tomorrow and I might decide differently. But today, I'm voting.

#5. Nikola Jokic (2023 > 2025 > 2024). Elite scoring, elite playmaking, ok defense. Team rOrtg was a +2.8 in the RS, +6 in PS. rDrtg a -0.6 in RS, -2.7 in PS.

#6. Shaquille O'Neal (2000 > 2001 > 2002). Sorry, but today, I decided you didn't hit your free throws at a good enough rate.

#7. Wilt Chamberlain (1967 > 1964 > 1968). Fantastic defender, great offensive hub, elite scoring at lower volume.

And for the run offs: Steph > Duncan > KG > Russell
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#47 » by Verticality » Sat Jul 26, 2025 2:36 pm

So 1 will be Duncan. On both ends he was the NBA's Most Valuable Player and lifted his side to winning 60 games and an incredible championship. My second will be 1962 Bill Russell winning NBA Most Valuable Player over Wilt Chamberlain and giving 22 points and 27 rebounds in addition to the greatest defense to win a third straight NBA World Championship. Russell would also have won NBA Finals Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. I will also select Wilt Chamberlain who won NBA Most Valuable Player and finally overcome his great rival to win his first NBA World Championship.

1 03 Tim Duncan
2 62 Bill Russell
3 67 Wilt Chamberlain
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#48 » by metta-tonne » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:19 pm

Like I said before…this isn't going to be the most old person friendly list. I think newer players are better


Curry - 2016
2017, 2015, 2022
completely changed the game. goat offense. Letting him shoot isn’t a deal you should take. Underrated handles and a talented passer too. Most skilled player ever?

Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals

Duncan - 2002
2003

Again, my real pick is Jokic but I guess of the guys here I’ll take Sir Fundemental. 2003 has the championship but he was probably better in 2002 to be honest. More points and better efficiency. Pretty dominant vs the Lakers with 30/6/17 while doing an amazing job vs Shaq. He shot alot better in 2003 vs the the same team but I think the deal there is the Lakers/Shaq not being that good anymore instead of Duncan actually improving.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#49 » by eminence » Sat Jul 26, 2025 3:41 pm

Verticality wrote:So 1 will be Duncan. On both ends he was the NBA's Most Valuable Player and lifted his side to winning 60 games and an incredible championship. My second will be 1962 Bill Russell winning NBA Most Valuable Player over Wilt Chamberlain and giving 22 points and 27 rebounds in addition to the greatest defense to win a third straight NBA World Championship. Russell would also have won NBA Finals Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. I will also select Wilt Chamberlain who won NBA Most Valuable Player and finally overcome his great rival to win his first NBA World Championship.

1 03 Tim Duncan
2 62 Bill Russell
3 67 Wilt Chamberlain


1) I like the votes here, especially the top two

2) Is the opening line saying Duncan was the best offensive MVP in '03? Can't get on board with that. I've got to put at least Dirk above him (or Nash in for Dirk if somebody thinks he was actually the engine of those Mavs). McGrady/Shaq/Kobe/KG/Allen maybe a couple others with decent arguments.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#50 » by Verticality » Sat Jul 26, 2025 4:08 pm

I will clarify. I intended to convey the sum of his offense and defense as having most value but I worded it poorly.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#51 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 26, 2025 11:21 pm

f4p wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Is comparativelt strange to be so high on hakeem but low on duncan despite similar profiles of team succes, scoring resiliency, defensive dominance


I think it's probably volume- and aesthetic-related. Duncan played in the slowest era of NBA basketball during his prime, and was not a high-volume guy. But his scoring output per 100 possessions is 29.7 to Olajuwon's 30.3 over their respective careers. At his peak, TD hit 33.5, and Hakeem had 35.6 and 35.8 at his apex. Similar levels of defensive dominance, albeit with different approach. Duncan was also a better passer.

One wonders what TD in his heyday would have looked like in a faster environment.


well as per usual with hakeem, it's really the playoffs.

from 2001-2009, duncan is at 32.3 pp100 and then never goes above 27.8 again.
from 1986-1995, hakeem is at 35.6 pp100 and even has a 31.8 in a conference finals run in 1997 (so not just 4 games or something)

I will just note that this is a bizarre sample to use. If you want to compare Duncan to someone then use his prime years (98-07). Comps per100 have been done that show he and Hakeem are neck and neck per100. You know this from the top100 thread.

98-07 Duncan RS per 100: 31/17/5 @55 TS%
98-07 Duncan PS per 100: 32/17/5 @56 TS%

85-95 Hakeem RS per 100: 31/16/3 @56TS%
85-95 Hakeem PS per 100: 35/13/4 @57TS%

The difference is Duncan was doing that without the protection of illegal defence that Hakeem had, against superior opposition.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#52 » by Djoker » Sun Jul 27, 2025 2:36 am

VOTING POST

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain
3. 1962 Bill Russell


Peak Shaq vs. peak Wilt is a tough choice. Shaq has stronger offensive impact signals than Wilt generally speaking and the gap in scoring is quite noticeable. Wilt could definitely score but his relatively low volume against both Russell and Thurmond in the playoffs is what hurts him here. Both guys are also poor free throw shooters but Wilt is still considerably worse (!). On the other hand, I give Wilt a pretty large edge on defense. And just about every aspect too: better shotblocker, much better lateral movement, better post defender, better instincts, better stamina. It's tough but I go with Shaq by a hair typically just because I see his weaknesses as less pronounced than Wilt's. Take away Wilt's easy baskets and put him on the foul line every time he has a deep catch and you might neutralize him. Peak Shaq was significantly more difficult to neutralize and I think Wilt's defensive edge almost overcomes that but not quite. Push comes to shove, I just think 2000 Shaq is a bigger problem to deal with for the opposing team than 1967 Wilt. And some of it is just Shaq's aggression. It may also be a stylistic difference but for peaks, I prefer players who are #1 options on offense. Wilt was actually #2 to Hal Greer and unfair or not he never led a team to a title as the #1 option. I was thinking of 1964 Wilt over 1967 Wilt but again, his play against Russell was underwhelming and the Warriors were actually a rather poor team that only made the Finals due to being in a weak conference especially with Lakers derailed by West's injury. That year 1964 was just not successful from a team perspective which I don't really fault Wilt for but I also can't give him credit for it.

Though I believe Bill is the GOAT (he and MJ in their own GOAT tier) I don't think he had any singular season as his peak. 1964 just too poor offensively in the playoffs. 1962 team defense too poor. I feel like he's a guy who had like 10 straight all-time seasons but not a single GOAT-level season. For example I'd comfortably take 1967 (and 1964) Wilt over any version of Russell but Russ probably has 10 of their top 15 seasons.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#53 » by BusywithBball » Sun Jul 27, 2025 3:40 am

Tim Duncan. On the analyse sent his defense over Kareem and Shaq looks incredible. I struggle to imagine Bill’s defense as so good to replace Duncan’s great scoring. So I will vote Duncan First. Year 2003.

To make clear what makes me change I add web link:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2469052&start=80

Bill Russell Second. Year 1962
Ultimate winner and greatest defender. I think he can fall no further and I wonder if I respect him enough.

Wilt Chamberlain was tremendous talent with unreal numbers and records. He could lead the league in assist or field goal percentage and also play great defense. He could lead the league in rebounds and also lead the league in scoring. He was a statistical marvel the likes of never seen since. He has just criticism for failures but for one year he led a great team and soundly crushed his great rival while being great two-way. I cannot put him above someone who wins nearly always but he was talent like no other and in the year he leads one of the greatest teams I will rank highly. Wilt Chaimberlain Third. Year 1967.

I am not sure on Shaq or Hakeem after but I listen to what others say. I understand people watching now aren’t so impressed but it must be said at time Shaq was considered so much better than anyone else.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#54 » by f4p » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:07 am

One_and_Done wrote:
f4p wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
I think it's probably volume- and aesthetic-related. Duncan played in the slowest era of NBA basketball during his prime, and was not a high-volume guy. But his scoring output per 100 possessions is 29.7 to Olajuwon's 30.3 over their respective careers. At his peak, TD hit 33.5, and Hakeem had 35.6 and 35.8 at his apex. Similar levels of defensive dominance, albeit with different approach. Duncan was also a better passer.

One wonders what TD in his heyday would have looked like in a faster environment.


well as per usual with hakeem, it's really the playoffs.

from 2001-2009, duncan is at 32.3 pp100 and then never goes above 27.8 again.
from 1986-1995, hakeem is at 35.6 pp100 and even has a 31.8 in a conference finals run in 1997 (so not just 4 games or something)

I will just note that this is a bizarre sample to use. If you want to compare Duncan to someone then use his prime years (98-07).


The bizarre sample is literally the best 9 year playoff pp100 stretch of Duncan's career. I go out of my way to pick his best numbers and you complain and then show literally the same 32 vs 35 pp100 playoff stats I showed. Speaking of bizarre...
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#55 » by tsherkin » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:15 am

f4p wrote:
well as per usual with hakeem, it's really the playoffs.

from 2001-2009, duncan is at 32.3 pp100 and then never goes above 27.8 again.


Worth noting that, after 2009, his usage changed considerably. His minutes began to drop, and of course his FGA100 dropped off notably over his last 3 years. San Antonio began shifting offensive primacy to their guards more and more over time. And then at some point, Kawhi started on his way up as well.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#56 » by One_and_Done » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:51 am

f4p wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
f4p wrote:
well as per usual with hakeem, it's really the playoffs.

from 2001-2009, duncan is at 32.3 pp100 and then never goes above 27.8 again.
from 1986-1995, hakeem is at 35.6 pp100 and even has a 31.8 in a conference finals run in 1997 (so not just 4 games or something)

I will just note that this is a bizarre sample to use. If you want to compare Duncan to someone then use his prime years (98-07).


The bizarre sample is literally the best 9 year playoff pp100 stretch of Duncan's career. I go out of my way to pick his best numbers and you complain and then show literally the same 32 vs 35 pp100 playoff stats I showed. Speaking of bizarre...

I'm more interested in using the correct years than the ones you think look best by counting stats. To exclude 99, when he was clearly the best player in the league, just comes off as not-serious. Not that Duncan's impact is captured by stats.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#57 » by One_and_Done » Sun Jul 27, 2025 4:54 am

tsherkin wrote:
f4p wrote:
well as per usual with hakeem, it's really the playoffs.

from 2001-2009, duncan is at 32.3 pp100 and then never goes above 27.8 again.


Worth noting that, after 2009, his usage changed considerably. His minutes began to drop, and of course his FGA100 dropped off notably over his last 3 years. San Antonio began shifting offensive primacy to their guards more and more over time. And then at some point, Kawhi started on his way up as well.

I remember an interview with Buford where he noted that shift started happened much soon, back when the touch rules changed in 05. By 07 Duncan's role on offense had shifted considerably, especially compared to 02 or 03 when almost every offensive possession went through him.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#58 » by Elpolo_14 » Sun Jul 27, 2025 5:52 am

5. TIM DUNCAN 2003 ( 2002 > 2004 = 1999 > 2001 )
Great regular and post season in which he shouldered a heavy load in both end of the floor with not much help on the offensive side. Impact metrics look great, especially in the playoffs. Defense is replicable in many different eras and can bring value in many situation while his offense was continuously resilient throughout the playoffs.
.
1. Defense and rebound
Duncan is an all time defensive motor for the team and his impact on defense even while playing PF ( not is real position and he give the position the D.rob ). Elite interior defender as his presence is enough to destabilize the offensive team. He can block shot / contest / Clean up for Prerimeter failure or even roam around to be able to help all the teammates if needed. With his size and really quick foot he can guard big or wing without much problem. Not much player ( except Shaq ) can penetrate Tim Duncan post defense regularly. He also a good PnR defender to keep up with the ball handler or the rill man. Not much exploitable in the prerimeter either.
Have Great rebounding ability as he can Boxout with his frame and strength to overpower other player in the paint. Good balance and center of gravity to not be moved around easy additional with great defensive awareness make him a great rebounder
PLAYOFF : 12.7 RPG
REG SZN : 14.4 RPG

2. SCORING
He good in the overall scoring department. He have great post move and post scoring ability. An reliable mid range and elite rim touch. His FT shooting is decent enough to not be a weakness or can be good cause he force the opposite team to foul him making the defense less aggressive ( RS - 71.0% / PS- 67.7% ) . His scoring traits doesn't get limited by playoff scheme or person either ( with this year specificly )
REG SZN : 26.2 PPG on +4.2 rTS ( +5.8 rts adj to own shot Putback )
Playoff : 25.4 PPG on +6.2 rTS adj. ( Against -1.6 rDRTG )
3. PLAYMAKER
Duncan have Great read and good passing package to be impactful in this aspect of the game. Really good bounce pass and overhead pass. Great IQ to make or create separation for his teammates with his post gravity. All time screen setter with great screen timing. Elite roll man in the PNR or he can be be the ball handler who drive to the basket to pass out cause he get double by the defense too.
TIM DUNCAN STAT
REG SZN : 26.2 PPG / 14.4 RPG / 4.4 APG with 4.1 stocks and 3.4 TOV
PLAYOFF : 25.4 PPG / 12.7 RPG /5.4 APG With 3.8 Stocks and 3.2 TOV


The SPURS
REG SZN
RECORD 60-22 -> 5.65 SRS ( top 3 In league )
Offense Rating of +2.0 rORTG ( Top 7 in league)
Defense Rating of -3.9 rDRTG ( Top 3 in league )

PLAYOFF
Playoff Offensive Rating: +1.80 (83rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -8.65 (14th)
Playoff SRS: +10.66 (47th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.36 (34th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.75 (34th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.70 (59th)

To Add on : Duncan playing more minutes than his second option by a significant amount will push his on court impact down to some extent due to him playing with the second rotation or the bench. Tim Duncan on/off is a +8.8 Net rating ( +16.3 Swing )
He lead +3.9 rORTG and -4.9 rDRTG on court .

Duncan 2003 Offensive On/Off
his impact swing is +13.5 ( on +3.9 vs off -8.6 )

When Duncan is on the floor his team Shoot more efficiently and are less TOv Prone -> 54.2 TS% ( +3.0 better than off ) / 16.8 TOV% ( -2.2 better than off ) / 31.4 OREB% ( +7.4 better than off )
DUNCAN being an elite Offensive rebounder make his team offense much easier to sustain their production with all the possession retain or Putback shot.

His defense on/off :
Impact on Defense when Duncan is on he floor -> 98.4 rDRTG ( -3.7 better ) / 48.3 D-TS% ( -5.2 better ) / 16.0 D-TOV% ( +2.2 Better ) / 31.1 D-REB% ( +3.2 better than off )

Even without hi best interior defender on D.rob. Duncan able to lead -2.6 rDRTg ( 5.5 swing if Duncan was off too ).
Duncan have an all time defensive anchor ability even tho he needed to play with D.rob who was hurting Duncan overall Impact.
The next year in 2004 when D.rob already retire Duncan was able to anchor -8.8 rDRTG ( best in the history post 60s ) which prove that he didn't need D.rob as much as we might have thought.
But not to diminish D.rob who was excellent defender in the playoffs especially against the Lakers with Shaq which he was the primary role and Duncan as help defender.


In PLAYOFFS on court
Duncan when on the floor in the playoffs Lead a +3.4rORTG adj and -10.2 rDRTG adj.. against elite defensive team ( -1.6 rDRTG and +2.7 rORTG )

1. Against the SUNS ( +0.1 rORTG / -0.9 rDRTG ) DUNCAN lead -3.1 rORTG adj. / 13.7 rDRTG adj.

2. Against LAKERS ( +3.6 rORTG / 1.2 rDRTG ) DUNCAN lead +6.6 rORTG adj. / -7.1 rDRTG adj.

3. Against MAVS ( +7.1 rORTG / -1.2 rDRTG ) DUNCAN lead +8.2 rORTG adj. / -8.9 rDRTG adj

4. Against NETS ( +0.2 rORTg / -5.6 rDRTG ) DUNCAN lead +2.2 rORTG adj. / -11.6 rDRtG adj

Duncan being the Top 4 best defender all time ( bill Hakeem KG in conversation ) with all his interior defensive Skillsets couple it with his best year offensively which was able to translate in the playoffs ( even with the lack of offensive help by his teammates D.rob / Rookie Tony / Second year Manu were all bad offensive player.
1. Tony lack the efficiency and decision making
2. D rob lack the self creation and aggressiveness
3. Manu lack the volume and enough court awareness to be impactful and he was not efficient )

Duncan playoff run is nothing but an All-time Carry Job on both end of the floor with excellent productivity even against Good team


This is the results of my tracking when Duncan was Guarding Shaq as a primary role in 2002 Thanks to *70sFan compilation*( without D.rob ) " it not 2003 but the premises of the player ability still the same "
Overall ( 5 game series )
- Contest - 29
- NO LAZY CONTEST AT ALL.
- SHAQ D-FGA - 40
- SHAQ D- FGM - 17
- SHAQ D-FG -> 17/40 or 0.425 FG%

Summarize - Duncan able to hold is own against Shaq but still got overpower in many occasions. Forcing the Spurs to send help when they're on an island. Duncan in transition isn't able to guard Shaq very which resort to Foul many time. But Duncan discipline and Court awareness able to put Shaq in harder situation anytime and able to positioning himself great enough to force Shaq against a Spurs help.

This show that even with the lack of second back line help Duncan able to Slow Shaq down to the point of 42.5 FG% ( on 40 FGA )which is extremely well. Shaq in that series Shot a total of 94 FGA ( so Duncan was on him around 40% of his shot ) - if we subtract Shot that Duncan was primary on Shaq - He would have 54 FGA on 46.3 FG%. So the differential is -3.8%

6. SHAQUILLE O'NEILL 2000 ( 2001>1998> 1995 = 2002 )

One of the most Dominant Player at the paint/post Area with ever seen. I choose this year cause it was when he bulk up to be more imposing and it the year he put the most effort on both end of the floor

1. Scoring
All time Rim Pressure with his Touch around the paint area combine with his Putback to give many possession a Second Chance to generate point. Elite Post player due to his size + Strength able to get to the position he want to while still have enough finest with his footwork to Shaq direction or spin out of the defense to create seperation for a raise up shot attempt. Elite Lob threat and as Roller ( he doesn't do it enough IMO ) to roll get the ball and finish at the rim even against contest.

2. Playmaker
With his scoring ability with established it will help open up his Playmaking arsenal. With his Dominance as a scorer inside the half court area he able to force defender or defensive system to collapse on him or AT LEAST send help so his man defender does get bullied so that make Shaq have one of the best GRAVITY ever. With his Gravity to attract defensive attention Create enough room and space for the Lakers ( Prerimeter or Cutter ) to operate there offense much easier. Shaq was a capable passer enough to capitalize on his advantage. He can pass out the double quite fast and have good basic fondamentale ( although it too Reactionary and can lead to none creation due to his pass being target to nearest teammates instead of the Most open teammates ).

3. Defense and Rebound
His Defensive and offensive Rebound were great because he was able to Boxout anyone inside to grabe the rebound. Elite interior defender with his presence ( a small touch of Cleaner inside )and Elite Post defender with his length and immovable base due to size+weight. Which were Valuable to an extent in his era. But Shaq weakness on defense is so exploitable.
This statement is from "70sfan" which I totally agree
he had plenty of weaknesses that were exploited back then - even without pace and space (I don't care much about time machine argument). It is not only about his mobility - I knew really well that he wasn't good at guarding space - but also about the basic bigmen fundamentals like positioning, help d awareness, timing in contests and rotations etc.

And this is the observation I made in the #3 peak thread after rewatching numerous game in 2000 playoff run

1. He not really as great as I remember on Help defense when His teammates are in disadvantageous situation or are in a Mismatch. He ball watching too much to the point he doesn't decide to take action or when he does it too late cause he not really fast horizontally. Example - Webber is Posting up a smaller player at the post/near post and Shaq is in paint as a back up defender but he doesn't go up to help on the weak side nor Cutting the driving lane to force Webber to jump shot or Pass. After Webber post up to a advantage position he would spin drive inside for a bucket/ attempt bucket which Shaq is not there to contest or help cut his lane of driving which he should have done ( because he didn't go help to prevent this From happening before Webber come in close ) " this happen 3 TIME IN A ROW"

2. his recovery is a weakness. When he play drop he have a hard time to take action against another threat or when the opposite team play PnP instead of PnR style. He bite easily to fake and isn't able to recover fast enough to go stay with his man. Example - Divac would pump fake which Shaq bite and drive but got his driving lane cut by a Lakers so Divac step back to shot/pass but Shaq isn't close to cover Divac yet ( even with his team help to push Divac out the paint )

3. His lack of Court awareness on defense. His lost his man quite easily and not knowing where they are on court

4. His efforts to contest ( interior is a bit worse than I thought and Prerimeter as Worse as I remember ) - He wouldn't even step out 1 foot to go contest a midrange jumper which Divac was able to use it against Shaq ( if only he was more efficient ). When a Guard drive to the basket he we take too much time to think so they're able to drive pass Shaq for a bucket or Shaq need to foul them from behind ( J.william did this against Shaq numerous time ). His positioning to gap disadvantage in rotation is also slow.


After stating many weakness I wanna show how prolific he was on the Post when Guarding Duncan in 2002 Playoff series when he was matched up against Duncan on Defense
Spoiler:
https://youtu.be/baDGJAebU4w?si=BDps7qFGPliyljgn
Duncan Scoring when Shaq is the primary+secondary defender on him:

P1 - Duncan blowby the prerimeter defender and meet Shaq at the rim. Shaq contest and block Duncan attempt bucket. Duncan retain possession and try another shot which Shaq contest again make Duncan miss. ( 2 contest shot - 0/2 FGA )
P2 - Duncan get a bounce pass at the post area. Shaq in paint but doesn't closeout on Duncan ( lazy pickup ). Duncan still missed ( 0/1 FGA )
P3 - Shaq lazy let Duncan openly cut to baskest for a Putback Dunk ( 1/1 FGA )
P4 - Duncan receive the ball near post/wing. With Shaq face up guard him. Duncan fake many time and drive on Shaq pushing him back for a layup ( 1 contest - 1/1 FGA )
P5 - Duncan get ball on wing pass inside. Shaq doesn't deny Duncan lane who cut and put the shot back in ( 1/1 FGA )
P6 - Duncan post up another player and spin pass him when Shaq came up as help defender to block shot. Duncan get rebound Shaq is the help defender to contest shot for 2 more attempt ( 3 help Contest - 0/3 FGA )
P7 - Duncan get ball in post try to post Shaq up but Shaq doesn't move. Force Duncan to make tough shot and miss ( 1 Contest - 0/1 FGA )
P8 - Duncan have the ball in Wing area with Shaq on him. Duncan see a sizable gap so he pull up midrange ( 1 lazy contest - 1/1 FGA )
P9 - Duncan have ball In paint with Shaq deny position and another laker doubling force Duncan pass ball out.
P10 - Shaq face up guard Duncan at ft line and block the driving lane. Duncan shoot a midrange which Shaq contest ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P11 - Duncan got ball on short corner try to dribble inside with Shaq covering miss a short midrange ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P12 - Duncan have ball in paint with Shaq slowing him down. Then another Lakers come double force Duncan pass.
P13 - Duncan get ball at wing then drive on Shaq but Shaq force him to a guard which able to steal Duncan ball
P14 - in Transition Duncan bring ball up see Shaq leaving too much room at elbow so Duncan pull up midrange ( 1 lazy contest - 1/1 FGA )
P15 - Duncan have ball in post but too slow to make decisions cause Shaq is on him then Kobe come double force Duncan to pass
P16 - Duncan with ball play PnP near the paint then Shaq come up the rim to help contest shot ( 1 help contest - 0/1 FGA )
P17 - Duncan drive to the paint then Shaq come help Contest. Duncan get rebound but Shaq stay tight on him force Duncan TOV with a guard steal. ( 1 Help contest - 0/1 FGA )
P18- Shaq on Duncan offball but Shaq switch to contest another player who fake then pass to Duncan in paint for a shot ( 1/1 FGA )
P 19 - Duncan receive ball in post so Shaq go help as secondary interior defender force
Duncan TOV
P 20 - Duncan get ball in post Shaq try help cut the passing lane but loses in man who Duncan dump the ball to for a lay up.
P21- Duncan with ball on wing with Shaq putting pressure on the ball and force TOV with his hand and strength
P22 - Duncan in post with Shaq Deny entry to the rim. Duncan pump fake many time the dribble inside for a foul.
P23 - Duncan get ball near elbow pump fake then pull up on Shaq who contest shot ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P24 - Duncan attempt drive but Shaq tight coverage. Duncan pass ball out
P25 - Duncan drive by his defender then Shaq come pickup to contest shot at rim ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P26 - Duncan posture Shaq from wing to post Area then spin move rise up for a contested bank shot ( 1 Contest - 1/1 FGA )
P27 - Duncan get ball at up ft line see Shaq a bit too far to close out so he pull up miss shot ( 1 Lazy Contest - 0/1 FGA )
P28 - Duncan post up pump fake which Shaq bite then drive in for a layup but missed ( 0/1 FGA )
P29 - Duncan try to post Shaq in paint area with a soft double on him. Force Duncan TOV
P30 - Duncan face up game on Shaq pump fake fora moment then pull up midrange on Shaq ( 1 Contest - 1/1 FGA )
P31 - Duncan bring ball up then play PnP then pull up off screen which Shaq try to contest but tit was a lob pass.
P32 - Shaq on Duncan in ft line area. Shaq get screen then decide to drop leave Duncan for a midrange Missed.
P33 - Shaq deny Duncan positioning for a moment so a double team come on Duncan but it a foul
P34 - in Transition Duncan get leave wild open at 3 pt line which he make the shot.
P35 - Duncan post up shat to the paint attempt to raise up but Shaq hit ball out his hand for a TOV
P36 - Duncan move off ball to get pass at elbow then drive on Shaq who foul Duncan
P37 - Duncan attempt post the raise up to pass for an assist.
P38 - Duncan get pass at elbow then he drive to meet Shaq contest at rim. Shaq foul Duncan
P39 - Duncan receive ball at wing with Shaq on him. Shaq get screen but still edge to contest the midrange ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P40 - Duncan get ball at wing then he drive thru Shaq nearly a blowby but get foul near paint but a Lakers.
P41 - in Transition Duncan run pass Shaq to the rim and get an alley oop dunk
P42 - Shaq help Deny driving lane of a guard the. Switch on Duncan to contest his drive layup ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P 43 - DUNCAN Post-up Shaq then saw double team coming so Duncan reset. Post-up raise up on Shaq who contest but foul.
P44 - Duncan cannot post up Shaq so he decided to pass but is too slow to deliver and get the ball stole by Kobe who help double
P45 - Duncan get ball short Corner with Shaq on him see Kobe come double but make a bad pass TOV
P46 - Duncan face up game on shaq at post. Then pullups for a bucket ( 1 Lazy contest - 1/1 FGA )
P47 - Duncan go screen PnP but Shaq is guarding with drop coverage. Duncan see space so he pull up on Shaq lazy contest but Miss ( 1 Lazy Contest - 0/1 FGA )
P 48 - Duncan face up on Shaq then drive but Shaq contest shot hit it to Lakers teammates ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P 49 - Duncan face up Shaq. Pump fake which Shaq bite a bit then drive by for layup but Shaq ablz to block from behind ( 1 contest - 0/1 FGA )
P50 - Shaq leaving Duncan offball to go in paint. Duncan get ball at ft line then shot it on Shaq contest ( 1 Lazy Contest - 0/1 FGA )
P51 - Duncan post up Shaq see double coming so he pass out to Prerimeter for an assist
P52 - Duncan go screen for PnP which Shaq is using drop coverage. Duncan get ball then shot but Missed ( 0/1 FGA )
P53 - Shaq overcommitted on help Duncan get ball drive inside Shaq jump contest but Duncan fake then sneak in easy layup ( 1/1 FGA )
P54 - Duncan get ball try a dunk but Shaq help block from behind ( 1 contest - 1/1 FGA )
P55 - Duncan get ball at 3pt line then drive on Shaq but get triple due to shot clock force to pass
P56 - Shaq hand up guard Duncan at ft line but Duncan see opening bounce pass in rim for Assist
P57 - Shaq on Duncan but get screen but Shaq still cover Duncan tight. Duncan try drive lay up but get block by shaq
P58 - Duncan postup drive on Shaq but missed ( 1 Lazy Contest - 0/1 FGA )
P59 - Shaq is ball watching loses Duncan offball who able to get rebound and put back ( 1/1 FGA )
Some of Duncan miss shot could be argue that Shaq didn't contribute to those cause of his lazy contest or Playing drop while Duncan play PnP but I counted it in the total from the video. And not be counted as D-FG in favor of Shaq ( if you wanna have different PoV you need to watch the clip )

Overall
Contest ( primary defender ) - 15
Lazy contest ( primary defender ) - 7
Help Contest ( secondary ) - 5
D-FGA ( both primary and secondary defender )- 33
D- FGM ( both primary and secondary defender ) - 12
D-FG ( both primary and secondary defender ) -> 12/33 or o.364 FG%
In that Series Duncan without Shaq would have been shooting 45.0 FG% on 80 FGA

Overall summarize - Shaq was elite against Duncan in the post and paint area to deny Duncan positioning or driving lane and being physical enough to push Duncan out of his comfort zone. But Shaq also have his weakness which Duncan able to exploit at the prerimeter or when he play off the ball as cutter + PnP.

Shaq lead his team to historical level in the regular season that year which is understandable.

Lakers
REG SZN
RECORD 67- 15 -> 8.41 SRS ( top 1 In league )
Offense Rating of +3.2 rORTG ( Top 5 in league)
Defense Rating of -5.9 rDRTG ( Top 1 in league )

Shaq had On/off Swing of +10.8 ( which mostly due to offense cause he was +9.2 Offensive swing
While Shaq was Averaging ( Inflation adjusted per 75 ):
31.4 PPG / 14.4 RPG / 4.0 APG with 3.7 Stocks 2.9 TOV on 57.8 TS% ( +5.5 rTS )

But the Lakers defense were collapsing in playoffs while the offense were uplifted

Shaq on court in PLAYOFF
+ 10.6 rORTG adj. And -0.5 rDRTG adj.
While Averaging ( IA/75 ):
31.0 PPG / 15.6 RPG / 3.1 APG with 2.9 Stocks 2.4 TOV on 55.6 TS% ( +4.8 rts Adj. Against -2.4 rDRTG team )

First Round against Sacramento Kings ( Top 11 offense \ Top 10 defense )
He lead +13.2 rORTG adj. And -4.6 rDRTG adj.

Second Round against Phoenix Suns ( Top 16 offense \ top 3 Defense )
He lead +10.5 rORTg adj. And -3.8 rDRTG adj

Third Round against Portland Blazers ( Top 4 offense / Top 5 Defense )
He lead +7.8 rORTG adj And -0.9 rDRTG adj

Final against Indiana Pacers ( Top 1 offense/ Top 13 Defense )
He lead +11.7 rORGT adj. And +5.5 rDRTG adj. ( Negative defense )

He lead All time offense against Great defensive team this year


7. WILT CHAMBERLAIN 1967 ( = 1964 > 1962 )
I'm a bit busy right now so I will keep it short.

Wilt one of the best defender in the league at that time with hot the offense was running towards the rim more than ever and Wilt with his ability and physical gift was able to impact the floor on that end at a high level. Wilt this year developed as a Playmaker by involving his teammates more and his willingness to pass create a better offensive system for the whole team. His scoring drop in volume but get more efficient and still Valuable to anchor the load when his team are on a bad scoring day.

He made the 76ers the best team in the league and even beat Bill Russell Celtics ( even tho Bill wasn't 100% ) it really impressive

Nominations - BILL 1962 ( 1964 ) AND Steph curry - 2017 ( 2016 )
Both are one of the best IF not the best at one end of the floor
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#59 » by f4p » Sun Jul 27, 2025 6:41 am

One_and_Done wrote:
f4p wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I will just note that this is a bizarre sample to use. If you want to compare Duncan to someone then use his prime years (98-07).


The bizarre sample is literally the best 9 year playoff pp100 stretch of Duncan's career. I go out of my way to pick his best numbers and you complain and then show literally the same 32 vs 35 pp100 playoff stats I showed. Speaking of bizarre...

I'm more interested in using the correct years than the ones you think look best by counting stats. To exclude 99, when he was clearly the best player in the league, just comes off as not-serious. Not that Duncan's impact is captured by stats.


Ok, then his numbers will be lower and the gap between him and Hakeem in scoring per 100 will be larger. I guess Hakeem being better at scoring was more obvious than I first thought.
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Re: RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #5 

Post#60 » by One_and_Done » Sun Jul 27, 2025 6:49 am

f4p wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
f4p wrote:
The bizarre sample is literally the best 9 year playoff pp100 stretch of Duncan's career. I go out of my way to pick his best numbers and you complain and then show literally the same 32 vs 35 pp100 playoff stats I showed. Speaking of bizarre...

I'm more interested in using the correct years than the ones you think look best by counting stats. To exclude 99, when he was clearly the best player in the league, just comes off as not-serious. Not that Duncan's impact is captured by stats.


Ok, then his numbers will be lower and the gap between him and Hakeem in scoring per 100 will be larger. I guess Hakeem being better at scoring was more obvious than I first thought.

I gave you the per100 numbers in that post. I think Duncan looks more impressive once you factor in the context.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.

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