The Lebron Thread (2015-16 Pt. 3)

[Greatness]

The Raptors Cavs series is tied 2-2. I understand looking ahead and the Cavs are still favoured but that series is far from a forgone conclusion.

[Quotatious]

Remember how I said it would be funny if Toronto managed to grind out a win against Miami in conference semifinals and then Lowry and DeRozan got hot against Cleveland? Seems like that's exactly what's happening. Well, Lowry hasn't really gotten hot, but he's shooting 56.6% TS, pretty good efficiency, and light years ahead of 48.1% that he shot against Indiana and Miami combined. DeRozan's improvement has been even bigger, going from 20 ppg on 42.5% TS to 26 ppg on 57.5% TS so far against the Cavs.

I know LeBron's been playing great in this series, and most people already see the Cavs in the finals, but I really wouldn't count the Raptors out. The fact they've been able to win two games against the Cavs without Valanciunas, is pretty amazing. After that 15-point win in game 3, I remember thinking that Raptors team is a lot better than people give them credit for.

[yoyoboy]

LeBron has to be more aggressive. Normally I like point forward LeBron, but he needed to take control at the end of Game 4.

[PaulieWal]

LeBron has to be more aggressive. Normally I like point forward LeBron, but he needed to take control at the end of Game 4.

It's not that simple though. Raps were doing a good job getting the ball out of his hands. Not to mention when you play a guy the entire second half it's likely that he will be running on empty in crunch time.

LeBron made the right passes in the final 5 minutes and JR/Frye missed open looks unless you wanted him to take hero shots with Lowry on him in the post and Bismack shading him.

[yoyoboy]

LeBron has to be more aggressive. Normally I like point forward LeBron, but he needed to take control at the end of Game 4.

It's not that simple though. Raps were doing a good job getting the ball out of his hands. Not to mention when you play a guy the entire second half it's likely that he will be running on empty in crunch time.

LeBron made the right passes in the final 5 minutes and JR/Frye missed open looks unless you wanted him to take hero shots with Lowry on him in the post and Bismack shading him.

Thats true, but I feel in general he wasn't punishing the Raptors in the post these past 2 games, despite it being so effective against them in Cleveland. Part of that is due to Biyombo really coming into his own, but he's still been far too willing to pass up shots at the basket for my taste, opting instead to kick it out more often than not. I had no problem with this strategy when we were hitting everything from beyond the arc for a couple weeks, but we've fallen back to the mean now, and Kyrie, Love, JR, and Delly have been especially garbage as of late. Really, only Frye has been consistent from three.

[JulesWinnfield]

I know in a best of 3 anything can happen and it would be foolish to outright dismiss Toronto... But sometimes in a series you just get the feeling that one team can't win on the others floor in a playoff setting, and no matter how tight the series may be at a given point the notion of the underdog taking a road game just still seems like too big an obstacle. 08 Celtics-Hawks felt that way to name one. This to me feels like one of those series (and obviously these teams are closer than 08 celts and Hawks, not trying to imply they aren't). If they played a best of 17 I don't know that I would pick Toronto to break through on the road against Lebron's Cavs in a playoff setting. It's panic time if they lost tonight of course, but at this point I still objectively have near zero fear on the Cavs part here. That's barring an inopportune injury of course

[OnlyOneWay2Play]

Recommend listening to Zach's Lowe's podcast with JVG today, it's very good and covers both Cavs-Raps and Thunder-Warriors.

At about 25 min they discuss LeBron's reluctance to shoot 3's even though the Raps are leaving him WIDE OPEN. Both Lowe and JVG think, as many of you have said, he needs to just shoot and shoot repeatedly, not just here and there, so he can get in a rhythm. They also said, even moreso than winning this series, he needs to be able to hit jumpers to win in the Finals, so might as well start shooting now.

In general, I like his team-first, look for efficient offense approach, but there is something to be said for being decisive and aggressive shooting. I do wonder if part of it is LeBron has no confidence in the Cavs defense, so he feels extra pressure to be hyper-efficient on offense. Last year's postseason was the opposite; the D was so solid (but the O so bad) that LBJ felt (and even said) liberated / obligated to just let it fly. The ideal is probably somewhere in between his approaches from the last two postseasons.

[RSCD3_]

LeBron vs Kawhi - Defensive Player Tracking Statistical Comparison for 2015-16 (xpost r/nba)

The usual field goal percent of the shooter that the player is defending
LeBron - 44.8%
Kawhi - 44.9%

Defense Dashboard

2pt FGs - Players shot 8.2% worse than their average when defended by LeBron
2pt FGs - Players shot 7.3% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi

3pt FGs - Players shots 2.7% worse than their average when defended by LeBron
3pt FGs - Players shot 1.3% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi

Overall - Players shot 7.4% worse than their average when defended by LeBron on 8.4 Defended FGs Per Game
Overall - Players shot 5.7% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi on 9.4 Defended FGs Per Game

Play type

When they were the closest isolation defender
LeBron - 69 possessions, .59 points per possession allowed, 28.8% eFG
Kawhi - 61 possessions, .69 points per possession allowed, 31% eFG

When they were the closest defender to the PnR ball handler
LeBron - 144 possessions, .66 ppp allowed, 37.1 eFG
Kawhi - 243 possessions, .65 ppp allowed, 35.8 eFG

When they were the roll man defender
LeBron - 10 possessions, .7 ppp, 38.9 eFG
Kawhi - 30 possessions, .5 ppp, 27.8 eFG

Post defense
LeBron - 43 possessions, .77 ppp, 40 eFG
Kawhi - 31 possessions, .77 ppp, 41.7 eFG

On spot up shooters
LeBron - 210 possessions, .8 ppp, 41.6 eFG
Kawhi - 200 possessions, .88 ppp, 43.6 eFG

Hand-offs
LeBron - 43 possessions, .49 ppp, 33.9 eFG
Leonard - 58 possessions, .72 ppp, 39.5 eFG

Off screens
LeBron - 78 possessions, .74 ppp, 40.8 eFG
Kawhi - 96 possessions, 1.05 ppp, 51.2 eFG

He's also 2nd in DRPM now at SF. Should have been on the 2nd team. His defence is back to elite level after the 2014 drop off.

FOUND THIS ON THE GB

[kayess]

Remember how I said it would be funny if Toronto managed to grind out a win against Miami in conference semifinals and then Lowry and DeRozan got hot against Cleveland? Seems like that's exactly what's happening. Well, Lowry hasn't really gotten hot, but he's shooting 56.6% TS, pretty good efficiency, and light years ahead of 48.1% that he shot against Indiana and Miami combined. DeRozan's improvement has been even bigger, going from 20 ppg on 42.5% TS to 26 ppg on 57.5% TS so far against the Cavs.

I know LeBron's been playing great in this series, and most people already see the Cavs in the finals, but I really wouldn't count the Raptors out. The fact they've been able to win two games against the Cavs without Valanciunas, is pretty amazing. After that 15-point win in game 3, I remember thinking that Raptors team is a lot better than people give them credit for.

At this point Valanciunas being out is probably a blessing. They don't win game 4 without Biyombo's interior D

[Dupp]

LeBron vs Kawhi - Defensive Player Tracking Statistical Comparison for 2015-16 (xpost r/nba)

The usual field goal percent of the shooter that the player is defending
LeBron - 44.8%
Kawhi - 44.9%

Defense Dashboard

2pt FGs - Players shot 8.2% worse than their average when defended by LeBron
2pt FGs - Players shot 7.3% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi

3pt FGs - Players shots 2.7% worse than their average when defended by LeBron
3pt FGs - Players shot 1.3% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi

Overall - Players shot 7.4% worse than their average when defended by LeBron on 8.4 Defended FGs Per Game
Overall - Players shot 5.7% worse than their average when defended by Kawhi on 9.4 Defended FGs Per Game

Play type

When they were the closest isolation defender
LeBron - 69 possessions, .59 points per possession allowed, 28.8% eFG
Kawhi - 61 possessions, .69 points per possession allowed, 31% eFG

When they were the closest defender to the PnR ball handler
LeBron - 144 possessions, .66 ppp allowed, 37.1 eFG
Kawhi - 243 possessions, .65 ppp allowed, 35.8 eFG

When they were the roll man defender
LeBron - 10 possessions, .7 ppp, 38.9 eFG
Kawhi - 30 possessions, .5 ppp, 27.8 eFG

Post defense
LeBron - 43 possessions, .77 ppp, 40 eFG
Kawhi - 31 possessions, .77 ppp, 41.7 eFG

On spot up shooters
LeBron - 210 possessions, .8 ppp, 41.6 eFG
Kawhi - 200 possessions, .88 ppp, 43.6 eFG

Hand-offs
LeBron - 43 possessions, .49 ppp, 33.9 eFG
Leonard - 58 possessions, .72 ppp, 39.5 eFG

Off screens
LeBron - 78 possessions, .74 ppp, 40.8 eFG
Kawhi - 96 possessions, 1.05 ppp, 51.2 eFG

He's also 2nd in DRPM now at SF. Should have been on the 2nd team. His defence is back to elite level after the 2014 drop off.

FOUND THIS ON THE GB

Got posted here ages ago I think it was originally found on real cavs or even reddit

[kayess]

Looks like he couldn't give a **** about winning this game. Classic LeBron

[yoyoboy]

I don't like LeBron's demeanor today. I was expecting locked in, Game 6 at Boston LeBron. Instead he looks like 2011 Finals LeBron.

I'm nervous. This is a must win game.

[PCProductions]

I wonder how long this Lebron not taking wide open jumpers thing is gonna last.

[ppedro123]

I don't like LeBron's demeanor today. I was expecting locked in, Game 6 at Boston LeBron. Instead he looks like 2011 Finals LeBron.

I'm nervous. This is a must win game.

it's the first quarter, dont be a girl


game 6 at Boston was literally a elimination game on the road.

[kayess]

I wonder how long this Lebron not taking wide open jumpers thing is gonna last.

As much as I think Toronto has no shot at winning on the road, if LeBron keeps playing like this the Cavs WILL lose. 2011-finals esque. Has he ever started a must win game like this? Is he assuming he'll have to play the entire second half so he's saving some of his energy for that?

[SideshowBob]

Lebron's movement off the ball/screening has been amazing again and Irving hit him on a roll! He's got to stop **** passing up those shots though, that ****'s not going to fly for long.

Love/Irving blazing at home.

[toodles23]

As much as I think Toronto has no shot at winning on the road, if LeBron keeps playing like this the Cavs WILL lose. 2011-finals esque. Has he ever started a must win game like this? Is he assuming he'll have to play the entire second half so he's saving some of his energy for that?

Lebron has 4 assists without a turnover and the Cavs were at 70 TS% with him on the floor. He's fine.

[kayess]

KYRIE SHOWING UP
LOVE SHOWING UP
LEBRON DISAPPEARING

WHAT YEAR IS THIS

[kayess]

Lebron's movement off the ball/screening has been amazing again and Irving hit him on a roll! He's got to stop **** passing up those shots though, that ****'s not going to fly for long.

Love/Irving blazing at home.

There's just on epossession on semi-transition where Irving finds him WAAAAY too late under the basket, James gets doubled, then kick-out to JR Smith for a long three

[rich316]

lmfao has there ever been a more bipolar player than kyrie? As freaking bad as he has been at times in this series, I was 100% sure that he was gonna take and make a 3 when he got that steal.