'17-'18 POY discussion

[bondom34]

I think Harden's a bit overrated but he's still ahead of Russ this year only.

But what about *squints hard* Victor Oladipo

Wasn't talking about EB's list. I still have Harden currently in the lead, but it's getting closer than I thought it would a while ago. Vic's somewhere after 5. Probably after 10 or so.

[Dr Spaceman]

I don’t see what the case is against Harden this year. He’s been break-even defensively which is a massive improvement from where he was even last year. His offense has taken another leap forward this year. He leads the league in every cumulative advanced metric known to man. Even impact stats are starting to sing his praises again.

I’d understand on some level people who say “I’ll need to see it in the playoffs”. That’s fine. But if you’re ranking them based on who had the best regular seasons, which you have to right now, there is no case for Harden outside the top 2, let alone top 6. My God.

[Jim Naismith]

Folks, please reflect on the phenomenal play of Damian Lillard.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

Top 10 definitely. Harden, Curry, and LeBron are ahead. Then, I'd put either Davis or Lillard.

It's very hard to be a Top 3 player this year. And I think Lillard is playing at a prime-Kobe level.

Of course, you can make an argument that Lillard's the #2 player in the league by downgrading Curry for his missed time and LeBron for his team's poor record. I'm not at that point yet.

[Jurassic_Park]

I only did one HM. Harden would be my 2nd HM in that 7 spot with Anthony Davis in the 8 spot.

I guess my point is I think it's a little unconventional to not have harden among the top 3 at this point and you don't even mention him in your post at all. What's the thought process behind having Oladipo and Westbrook ahead of him?

Westbrook has played at about an equal level with Harden imo but he's played more games. Like I said its close. Oladipo has been a monster too. Definitely in that top class so far this year. Indy is a top 3 seed when they were expected to fall off and no one seems to be mentioning how that's all because of Dipo.

oh lord.

[E-Balla]

Folks, please reflect on the phenomenal play of Damian Lillard.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

Top 10 definitely. Harden, Curry, and LeBron are ahead. Then, I'd put either Davis or Lillard.

It's very hard to be a Top 3 player this year. And I think Lillard is playing at a prime-Kobe level.

Of course, you can make an argument that Lillard's the #2 player in the league by downgrading Curry for his missed time and LeBron for his team's poor record. I'm not at that point yet.

Or you can downgrade Lebron because he hasn't even thought about playing defense all year and he's legitimately terrible on that end so far.

[DoItALL9]

Folks, please reflect on the phenomenal play of Damian Lillard.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

Top 10 definitely. Harden, Curry, and LeBron are ahead. Then, I'd put either Davis or Lillard.

It's very hard to be a Top 3 player this year. And I think Lillard is playing at a prime-Kobe level.

Of course, you can make an argument that Lillard's the #2 player in the league by downgrading Curry for his missed time and LeBron for his team's poor record. I'm not at that point yet.

Or you can downgrade Lebron because he hasn't even thought about playing defense all year and he's legitimately terrible on that end so far.

Why does LeBron get that pass from so many people? He is the likely best player if everyone is at their best but he doesn't bring that every night. It may be disinterest, saving himself, others things or some combination but I have a hard time putting that over someone who's comparable & who's bringing it nightly. Lillard has improved on defense.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

[dhsilv2]

Just for the sake of entertainment, by what measures do you believe Westbrook has been a top 3 player and at about an equal level as the runaway MVP?

If you like VORP he lead the league there by a mile. He lead it in PER too last year.

[CBA]

Just for the sake of entertainment, by what measures do you believe Westbrook has been a top 3 player and at about an equal level as the runaway MVP?

If you like VORP he lead the league there by a mile. He lead it in PER too last year.

I was replying to a poster who has Westbrook ranked 3rd this year, not last year...

[MO12msu]

I only did one HM. Harden would be my 2nd HM in that 7 spot with Anthony Davis in the 8 spot.

I guess my point is I think it's a little unconventional to not have harden among the top 3 at this point and you don't even mention him in your post at all. What's the thought process behind having Oladipo and Westbrook ahead of him?

Westbrook has played at about an equal level with Harden imo but he's played more games. Like I said its close. Oladipo has been a monster too. Definitely in that top class so far this year. Indy is a top 3 seed when they were expected to fall off and no one seems to be mentioning how that's all because of Dipo.

What metrics have you seen that shows Westbrook or Dipo have been on Harden's level?

Like everyone else is saying, I think Harden has a stronger argument of being consensus top player going into the post season than being left out of the top 5 all together.

[MO12msu]

My current top 5 btw:

1. Harden - Seems clear cut to me. Most impressed with his ability to carry such large load.
2. AD - Impressed me keeping his team afloat and in line for a playoff berth.
3. Steph - Would be 2 if he played more games. As good as ever.
4. CP3 - He's somehow played 1 less game than Steph and has maintained his impact with a reduced role.
5. Giannis - He's been falling for me lately. Kinda disappointed in his team success. They have the talent to be better than they are.

HM(no order): Butler, Lebron, Durant, Dame

[E-Balla]

I guess my point is I think it's a little unconventional to not have harden among the top 3 at this point and you don't even mention him in your post at all. What's the thought process behind having Oladipo and Westbrook ahead of him?

Westbrook has played at about an equal level with Harden imo but he's played more games. Like I said its close. Oladipo has been a monster too. Definitely in that top class so far this year. Indy is a top 3 seed when they were expected to fall off and no one seems to be mentioning how that's all because of Dipo.

What metrics have you seen that shows Westbrook or Dipo have been on Harden's level?

Like everyone else is saying, I think Harden has a stronger argument of being consensus top player going into the post season than being left out of the top 5 all together.

Literally every single metric that's not 100% derived with boxscores puts Dipo on Harden's level. RAPM puts him well over Harden, he has 11.49 RPM wins vs Harden's 13.23, and 82games' simple rating puts Harden at +15.6 and Dipo at +14.9. Seriously all metrics put Dipo in the top 5. With everyone so incredibly close together I don't think picking anyone out of like 8 players for the top spot is unjustified.

If anyone in my top 5 should be criticized for being over Harden its Russ (who I only put over Harden because he's played more games) and Curry (who has missed a significant amount of games). Dipo is killing things though. Indy wins by 3 ppg when he's in the game and in 6 games without him lost by 12 ppg. They're the freaking 3rd seed despite going 0-6 without Dipo and they were expected to win 30-35 games. With a healthy Dipo they're the 2nd best team in the East.

EDIT: Also since people love RPM there's 11 players this year within 3 RPM wins of Harden's league lead this year. There's never been more than 2 players that close to the league lead before and most years its only one player. No matter what anyone thinks the top 5 and top 10 is basically wide open headed to the playoffs. There's tons of contenders and no one has clear separation from the pack.

And CP3's league leading 7.33 RPM would rank 4th last year, 7th in 2016, 6th in 2015, and 3rd in 2014. All metrics have this year pegged as a year full of very good players but incredibly short on great ones. And the crazy part is its like this despite the 10 different teams tanking (this is also the most teams that have ever been within 4 losses of the 1st overall pick).

[MO12msu]

Literally every single metric that's not 100% derived with boxscores puts Dipo on Harden's level. RAPM puts him well over Harden, he has 11.49 RPM wins vs Harden's 13.23, and 82games' simple rating puts Harden at +15.6 and Dipo at +14.9. Seriously all metrics put Dipo in the top 5. With everyone so incredibly close together I don't think picking anyone out of like 8 players for the top spot is unjustified.

If anyone in my top 5 should be criticized for being over Harden its Russ (who I only put over Harden because he's played more games) and Curry (who has missed a significant amount of games). Dipo is killing things though. Indy wins by 3 ppg when he's in the game and in 6 games without him lost by 12 ppg. They're the freaking 3rd seed despite going 0-6 without Dipo and they were expected to win 30-35 games. With a healthy Dipo they're the 2nd best team in the East.

EDIT: Also since people love RPM there's 11 players this year within 3 RPM wins of Harden's league lead this year. There's never been more than 2 players that close to the league lead before and most years its only one player. No matter what anyone thinks the top 5 and top 10 is basically wide open headed to the playoffs. There's tons of contenders and no one has clear separation from the pack.

So I guess you put a lot of weight into the on-off numbers, which is cool. But 2 out of the 3 stats you just cited puts Harden above Dipo so I don't get where the argument for Dipo ahead of Harden makes sense from that perspective unless you weigh RAPM significantly above the others.

I did also question your placement of Russ btw.

Idk nothing I've seen makes me understand how you have Harden so low relative to others.

[E-Balla]

Literally every single metric that's not 100% derived with boxscores puts Dipo on Harden's level. RAPM puts him well over Harden, he has 11.49 RPM wins vs Harden's 13.23, and 82games' simple rating puts Harden at +15.6 and Dipo at +14.9. Seriously all metrics put Dipo in the top 5. With everyone so incredibly close together I don't think picking anyone out of like 8 players for the top spot is unjustified.

If anyone in my top 5 should be criticized for being over Harden its Russ (who I only put over Harden because he's played more games) and Curry (who has missed a significant amount of games). Dipo is killing things though. Indy wins by 3 ppg when he's in the game and in 6 games without him lost by 12 ppg. They're the freaking 3rd seed despite going 0-6 without Dipo and they were expected to win 30-35 games. With a healthy Dipo they're the 2nd best team in the East.

EDIT: Also since people love RPM there's 11 players this year within 3 RPM wins of Harden's league lead this year. There's never been more than 2 players that close to the league lead before and most years its only one player. No matter what anyone thinks the top 5 and top 10 is basically wide open headed to the playoffs. There's tons of contenders and no one has clear separation from the pack.

So I guess you put a lot of weight into the on-off numbers, which is cool. But 2 out of the 3 stats you just cited puts Harden above Dipo so I don't get where the argument for Dipo ahead of Harden makes sense from that perspective unless you weigh RAPM significantly above the others.

I did also question your placement of Russ btw.

Idk nothing I've seen makes me understand how you have Harden so low relative to others.

You asked what metric shows they're on the same level. I cited 3 major ones. The difference between +14.9 and +15.6 is so minimal it makes no sense to use it as an argument for why one guy is better than the other. That's something you need to individually choose when players are so close.

I've said multiple times already in this thread the distance between Harden at #7 and Giannis at #1 is minimal at best.

How about this. Convince me Harden has done anything to separate himself from the pack? Y'all too busy crowning guys around here instead of letting what you see dictate your opinion.

[MO12msu]

You asked what metric shows they're on the same level. I cited 3 major ones. The difference between +14.9 and +15.6 is so minimal it makes no sense to use it as an argument for why one guy is better than the other. That's something you need to individually choose when players are so close.

I've said multiple times already in this thread the distance between Harden at #7 and Giannis at #1 is minimal at best.

How about this. Convince me Harden has done anything to separate himself from the pack? Y'all too busy crowning guys around here instead of letting what you see dictate your opinion.

How do you know what I see hasn't dictated my opinion? Pretty weak to act like I've come to my conclusions without watching games and doing my own research.

Here's my Harden clearly top of the league argument: He leads the league in all those major boxscore measures that I understand you don't care about in addition to being in the top tier in the league in the on-off metrics as well. The offense that he is the main conductor of is putting up literally GOAT level numbers and it is entirely predicated on him destroying people in iso situations with amazing spacing. The team that he is leading is proving to be a viable threat to maybe the greatest collection of talent in NBA history.

Harden versus Oladipo: In addition to everything above, Harden is way more efficient. Both are putting up impressive on-off metrics, but I'd argue it's harder to post those kind of on-off numbers when Chris Paul is you're back up point guard and the team is performing at +8-9 SRS level. That's not to say Oladipo is impressive, but it shows that what Harden is doing is more impressive because it's on a greater scale for a team with higher goals which should probably count for something in itself.

I'd argue that Harden is a significantly better playmaker and shooter than Oladipo and the basic numbers bare that out. In addition to the constant pressure that Harden's ability to draw fouls puts on the defense. Offensively I don't think it's all that close really. And I don't think Oladipo makes a big enough defensive impact to close the gap in any way that is substantial.

Still waiting of the Westbrook over Harden argument.

[NinjaSheppard]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

[K_chile22]

You asked what metric shows they're on the same level. I cited 3 major ones. The difference between +14.9 and +15.6 is so minimal it makes no sense to use it as an argument for why one guy is better than the other. That's something you need to individually choose when players are so close.

I've said multiple times already in this thread the distance between Harden at #7 and Giannis at #1 is minimal at best.

How about this. Convince me Harden has done anything to separate himself from the pack? Y'all too busy crowning guys around here instead of letting what you see dictate your opinion.

How do you know what I see hasn't dictated my opinion? Pretty weak to act like I've come to my conclusions without watching games and doing my own research.

Here's my Harden clearly top of the league argument: He leads the league in all those major boxscore measures that I understand you don't care about in addition to being in the top tier in the league in the on-off metrics as well. The offense that he is the main conductor of is putting up literally GOAT level numbers and it is entirely predicated on him destroying people in iso situations with amazing spacing. The team that he is leading is proving to be a viable threat to maybe the greatest collection of talent in NBA history.

Harden versus Oladipo: In addition to everything above, Harden is way more efficient. Both are putting up impressive on-off metrics, but I'd argue it's harder to post those kind of on-off numbers when Chris Paul is you're back up point guard and the team is performing at +8-9 SRS level. That's not to say Oladipo is impressive, but it shows that what Harden is doing is more impressive because it's on a greater scale for a team with higher goals which should probably count for something in itself.

I'd argue that Harden is a significantly better playmaker and shooter than Oladipo and the basic numbers bare that out. In addition to the constant pressure that Harden's ability to draw fouls puts on the defense. Offensively I don't think it's all that close really. And I don't think Oladipo makes a big enough defensive impact to close the gap in any way that is substantial.

Still waiting of the Westbrook over Harden argument.

I know the Harden part is the worst, but lets not just skim over having Russ, Dipo, and Embiid over Curry and Jimmy as well. Whole list gotta get thrown out.

Says he's weighing games played very heavily then puts Embiid 4th. Ok.

[bondom34]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

They beat the Bulls and Kings by an average of 18 points. Gonna guess that's throwing off the "brutally tough" schedule.

[K_chile22]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

I think Butler is a top 3 guy this year, but people on this board generally put too much in raw on/off. Thibs might be allergic to staggering. The starters always play together, so they will have great numbers, for the most part, and the bench will suffer, making the on/off numbers quite a bit nicer than the should be. on/off is so easily warped by having a bad bench or a coach who fails at playing adequate lineups for an entire game that I don't think it's all that useful as a tool for looking at individual players. It is a data point that we shouldn't just ignore, but it's not a very large on. It's mostly a stat of circumstance.

For example, Harden's one non-all NBA season as a Rocket (the disaster that is the 2016 Houston Rockets) Harden had his career best on/off numbers, about triple what his on/off has been the past two years. Is Harden worse now than he was then? Or did he get a coach that was better at creating lineups that are effective while he's on the bench, backups v backups?

[bondom34]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

I think Butler is a top 3 guy this year, but people on this board generally put too much in raw on/off. Thibs might be allergic to staggering. The starters always play together, so they will have great numbers, for the most part, and the bench will suffer, making the on/off numbers quite a bit nicer than the should be. on/off is so easily warped by having a bad bench or a coach who fails at playing adequate lineups for an entire game that I don't think it's all that useful as a tool for looking at individual players. It is a data point that we shouldn't just ignore, but it's not a very large on. It's mostly a stat of circumstance.

It works for him with WOWY too. Any lineup he's not in magically stunk.

As for them winning, see my post above.

[K_chile22]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

I think Butler is a top 3 guy this year, but people on this board generally put too much in raw on/off. Thibs might be allergic to staggering. The starters always play together, so they will have great numbers, for the most part, and the bench will suffer, making the on/off numbers quite a bit nicer than the should be. on/off is so easily warped by having a bad bench or a coach who fails at playing adequate lineups for an entire game that I don't think it's all that useful as a tool for looking at individual players. It is a data point that we shouldn't just ignore, but it's not a very large on. It's mostly a stat of circumstance.

It works for him with WOWY too. Any lineup he's not in magically stunk.

As for them winning, see my post above.

I was talking more generally, as I said, Jimmy is having a top 3 season imo. WOWY is good to me tho, just to add onto my thoughts. Context.